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We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 has the multi-resolution functionality typical for unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of latest developments in the numerical weather prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable resolution (25–125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other on-going research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution, the development of a full Earth System Model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above CMIP6-average skills in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model.

The impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the weather and climate in midlatitudes is still much debated, with observations suggesting a strong link and models a much weaker link. In this study, we use the atmospheric model OpenIFS in a set of model experiments following the protocol outlined in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to investigate whether the simulated atmospheric response to future changes in Arctic sea ice fundamentally depends on model resolution. More specifically, we increase the horizontal resolution of the model from 125 to 39 km with 91 vertical levels; in a second step, resolution is further increased to 16 km with 137 levels in the vertical. The model does produce a response to sea ice decline with a weaker midlatitude Atlantic jet and increased blocking in the high-latitude Atlantic, but no sensitivity to resolution can be detected with 100 members. Furthermore, we find that the ensemble convergence toward the mean is not impacted by the model resolutions considered here.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments sup port the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice‐ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long‐term climate integrations using a locally eddy‐resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long‐term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy‐resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin‐up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de‐drifting” climate runs after the short spin‐up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy‐permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.

A new climate model has been developed that employs a multi-resolution dynamical core for the sea ice-ocean component. In principle, the multi-resolution approach allows one to use enhanced horizontal resolution in dynamically active regions while keeping a coarse-resolution setup otherwise. The coupled model consists of the atmospheric model ECHAM6 and the finite element sea ice-ocean model (FESOM). In this study only moderate refinement of the unstructured ocean grid is applied and the resolution varies from about 25 km in the northern North Atlantic and in the tropics to about 150 km in parts of the open ocean; the results serve as a benchmark upon which future versions that exploit the potential of variable resolution can be built. Details of the formulation of the model are given and its performance in simulating observed aspects of the mean climate is described. Overall, it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM realistically simulates many aspects of the observed climate. More specifically it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM performs at least as well as some of the most sophisticated climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. ECHAM6–FESOM shares substantial shortcomings with other climate models when it comes to simulating the North Atlantic circulation.

Escherichia coli is a highly diverse bacterial species, with atypical enteropathogenic E. coli (aEPEC) causing intestinal disease in both human and animal hosts. Here, we report the first complete genome sequence of an aEPEC strain of sequence type ST794 and serotype Ont:H7, isolated from a diseased piglet.

Frequent contact with human waste and liquid manure from intensive livestock breeding, and the increased loads of antibiotic-resistant bacteria that result, are believed to be responsible for the high carriage rates of ESBL-producing E. coli found in birds of prey (raptors) in Central Europe. To test this hypothesis against the influence of avian migration, we initiated a comparative analysis of faecal samples from wild birds found in Saxony-Anhalt in Germany and the Gobi-Desert in Mongolia, regions of dissimilar human and livestock population characteristics and agricultural practices. We sampled a total of 281 wild birds, mostly raptors with primarily north-to-south migration routes. We determined antimicrobial resistance, focusing on ESBL production, and unravelled the phylogenetic and clonal relatedness of identified ESBL-producing E. coli isolates using multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and macrorestriction analyses. Surprisingly, the overall carriage rates (approximately 5%) and the proportion of ESBL-producers among E. coli (Germany: 13.8%, Mongolia: 10.8%) were similar in both regions. Whereas blaCTX-M-1 predominated among German isolates (100%), blaCTX-M-9 was the most prevalent in Mongolian isolates (75%). We identified sequence types (STs) that are well known in human and veterinary clinical ESBL-producing E. coli (ST12, ST117, ST167, ST648) and observed clonal relatedness between a Mongolian avian ESBL-E. coli (ST167) and a clinical isolate of the same ST that originated in a hospitalised patient in Europe. Our data suggest the influence of avian migratory species in the transmission of ESBL-producing E. coli and challenge the prevailing assumption that reducing human influence alone invariably leads to lower rates of antimicrobial resistance. © 2012 Guenther et al.

We describe the global configuration of a coupled atmosphere/ocean model. The atmosphere is simulated by the ECHAM5 and the ocean by the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM), which supports unstructured meshes and allows for variable resolution. Coupling between structured and unstructured meshes is a technically challenging task due to different geometry, resolution and representation of coastlines in both components. This has been achieved via the parallel OASIS4 coupler and additional use of a regular exchange mesh. The latter has been introduced in the ocean model. The conservation of flux moments requires additional care since model grids are different in both components. The heat and moisture fluxes are computed in the atmospheric model so that the flux variance is defined by the resolution in the atmosphere. Since it is problematic to downscale the variance onto the fine resolved parts of the ocean, a few interpolation techniques are suggested. We validate the coupled setup on the basis of an integration run for 300 years.

We present a global climate model setup where the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) has been coupled to the atmospheric model ECHAM5. The major difference of this setup to other climate models is the ocean component which supports variable resolution. The latter allows to refine the areas of particular interest in the global context and to resolve narrow straits where it is needed. Current model setup has a resolution varying from 30 to 200 km in the ocean and T63L31 (~1.8°) configuration in the atmosphere. We present 300 year integration results, discuss model variability and trends. It is shown that the climate state simulated by FESOM/ECHAM is in most cases within the spread of other models. On another hand we address the technical complexity of this setup, linked to an exchange between unstructured and structured meshes. These have different geometry, representation of coastlines and different rules for the flux definition. This implies that additional strategies have to be developed in order to preserve the flux conservation. We summarize the problems and suggest our compromised solutions.

The atmospheric general circulation model EC-EARTH-IFS has been applied to investigate the influence of both a reduced and a removed Arctic sea ice cover on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes. Three 40-year simulations driven by original and modified ERA-40 sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations have been performed at T255L62 resolution, corresponding to 79 km horizontal resolution. Simulated changes between sensitivity and reference experiments are most pronounced over the Arctic itself where the reduced or removed sea ice leads to strongly increased upward heat and longwave radiation fluxes and precipitation in winter. In summer, the most pronounced change is the stronger absorption of shortwave radiation which is enhanced by optically thinner clouds. Averaged over the year and over the area north of 70° N, the negative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere decreases by about 10 W/m2 in both sensitivity experiments. The energy transport across 70° N is reduced. Changes are not restricted to the Arctic. Less extreme cold events and less precipitation are simulated in sub-Arctic and Northern mid-latitude regions in winter.

Snow and ice thermodynamics of Bear Lake (Alaska) are investigated with a simple freshwater lake model (FLake) and a more complex snow and ice thermodynamic model (HIGHTSI). A number of sensitivity experiments have been carried out to investigate the influence of snow and ice parameters and of different complexity on the results. Simulation results are compared with observations from the Alaska Lake Ice and Snow Observatory Network. Adaptations of snow thermal and optical properties in FLake can largely improve accuracy of the results. Snow-to-ice transformation is important for HIGHTSI to calculate the total ice mass balance. The seasonal maximum ice depth is simulated in FLake with a bias of -0.04m and in HIGHTSI with no bias. Correlation coefficients between ice depth measurements and simulations are high (0.74 for FLake and 0.9 for HIGHTSI). The snow depth simulation can be improved by taking into account a variable snow density. Correlation coefficients for surface temperature are 0.72 for FLake and 0.81 for HIGHTSI. Overall, HIGHTSI gives slightly more accurate surface temperature than FLake probably due to the consideration of multiple snow and ice layers and the expensive iteration calculation procedure.

Water Management, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation - Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms - Extreme wind speeds increase between 45 degrees N and 55 degrees N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal var