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1. Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Author

Altıntaş, Ayşe (ORCID 0000-0002-8524-5087 & YÖK ID 11611), Daruwalla, C.; Shaygannejad, V.; Ozakbas, S.; Havrdova, EK.; Horakova, D.; Alroughani, R.; Boz, C.; Patti, F.; Onofrj, M.; Lugaresi, A.; Eichau, S.; Girard, M.; Prat, A.; Duquette, P.; Yamout, B.; Khoury, S.J.; Sajedi, S.A.; Turkoglu, R.; Skibina, O.; Buzzard, K.; Grammond, P.; Karabudak, R.; van der Walt, A.; Butzkueven, H.; Maimone, D.; Lechner-Scott, J.; Soysal, A.; John, N.; Prevost, J.; Spitaleri, D.; Ramo-Tello, C.; Gerlach, O.; Iuliano, G.; Foschi, M.; Ampapa, R.; van Pesch, V.; Barnett, M.; Shalaby, N.; D'hooghe, M.; Kuhle, J.; Sa, M.J.; Fabis-Pedrini, M.; Kermode, A.; Mrabet, S.; Gouider, R.; Hodgkinson, S.; Laureys, G.; Van Hijfte, L.; Macdonell, R.; Oreja-Guevara, C.; Cristiano, E.; McCombe, P.; Sanchez-Menoyo, J.L.; Singhal, B.; Blanco, Y.; Hughes, S.; Garber, J.; Solaro, C.; McGuigan, C.; Taylor, B.; de Gans, K.; Habek, M.; Al-Asmi, A.; Mihaela, S.; Castillo Triviño, T.; Al-Harbi, T.; Rojas, J.I.; Gray, O.; Khuran,a D.; Van Wijmeersch, B.; Grigoriadis, N.; Inshasi, J.; Oh, J.; Aguera-Morales, E.; Fragoso, Y.; Moore, F.; Shaw, C.; Baghbanian, S.M.; Shuey, N.; Willekens, B.; Hardy, T.A.; Decoo, D.; Sempere, A.P.; Field, D.; Wynford-Thomas, R.; Cunniffe, NG.; Roos, I.; Malpas, C.B.; Coles, A.J.; Kalincik, T.; Brown, J.W.L., Koç University Research Center for Translational Medicine (KUTTAM) / Koç Üniversitesi Translasyonel Tıp Araştırma Merkezi (KUTTAM), School of Medicine, Altıntaş, Ayşe (ORCID 0000-0002-8524-5087 & YÖK ID 11611), Daruwalla, C.; Shaygannejad, V.; Ozakbas, S.; Havrdova, EK.; Horakova, D.; Alroughani, R.; Boz, C.; Patti, F.; Onofrj, M.; Lugaresi, A.; Eichau, S.; Girard, M.; Prat, A.; Duquette, P.; Yamout, B.; Khoury, S.J.; Sajedi, S.A.; Turkoglu, R.; Skibina, O.; Buzzard, K.; Grammond, P.; Karabudak, R.; van der Walt, A.; Butzkueven, H.; Maimone, D.; Lechner-Scott, J.; Soysal, A.; John, N.; Prevost, J.; Spitaleri, D.; Ramo-Tello, C.; Gerlach, O.; Iuliano, G.; Foschi, M.; Ampapa, R.; van Pesch, V.; Barnett, M.; Shalaby, N.; D'hooghe, M.; Kuhle, J.; Sa, M.J.; Fabis-Pedrini, M.; Kermode, A.; Mrabet, S.; Gouider, R.; Hodgkinson, S.; Laureys, G.; Van Hijfte, L.; Macdonell, R.; Oreja-Guevara, C.; Cristiano, E.; McCombe, P.; Sanchez-Menoyo, J.L.; Singhal, B.; Blanco, Y.; Hughes, S.; Garber, J.; Solaro, C.; McGuigan, C.; Taylor, B.; de Gans, K.; Habek, M.; Al-Asmi, A.; Mihaela, S.; Castillo Triviño, T.; Al-Harbi, T.; Rojas, J.I.; Gray, O.; Khuran,a D.; Van Wijmeersch, B.; Grigoriadis, N.; Inshasi, J.; Oh, J.; Aguera-Morales, E.; Fragoso, Y.; Moore, F.; Shaw, C.; Baghbanian, S.M.; Shuey, N.; Willekens, B.; Hardy, T.A.; Decoo, D.; Sempere, A.P.; Field, D.; Wynford-Thomas, R.; Cunniffe, NG.; Roos, I.; Malpas, C.B.; Coles, A.J.; Kalincik, T.; Brown, J.W.L., Koç University Research Center for Translational Medicine (KUTTAM) / Koç Üniversitesi Translasyonel Tıp Araştırma Merkezi (KUTTAM), and School of Medicine

Abstract

Background: the prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. Objective: to determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. Methods: we redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. Results: people who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. Conclusion: this study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions., The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (fellowship nos.1140766 and 1080518, project grant nos. 1129189 and 1083539), the University of Melbourne (Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences research fellowship), National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) Advanced Fellowship (grant no. 301728; recipient JWLB) and Academic Clinical Fellowship (grant no. EAN/ACA-006/7488627/C; recipient CD). The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer Schering, Sanofi Genzyme, and Teva. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the University of Melbourne and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Published
2023

2. Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

Author

Sharmin S., Bovis F., Malpas C., Horakova D., Havrdova E., Izquierdo G., Eichau S., Trojano M., Prat A., Girard M., Duquette P., Onofrj M., Lugaresi A., Grand'Maison F., Grammond P., Sola P., Ferraro D., Terzi M., Gerlach O., Alroughani R., Boz C., Shaygannejad V., van Pesch V., Cartechini E., Kappos L., Lechner-Scott J., Bergamaschi R., Turkoglu R., Solaro C., Iuliano G., Granella F., Van Wijmeersch B., Spitaleri D., Slee M., McCombe P., Prevost J., Ampapa R., Ozakbas S., Sanchez-Menoyo J., Soysal A., Vucic S., Petersen T., de Gans K., Butler E., Hodgkinson S., Sidhom Y., Gouider R., Cristiano E., Castillo-Trivino T., Saladino M., Barnett M., Moore F., Rozsa C., Yamout B., Skibina O., van der Walt A., Buzzard K., Gray O., Hughes S., Sempere A.P., Singhal B., Fragoso Y., Shaw C., Kermode A., Taylor B., Simo M., Shuey N., Al-Harbi T., Macdonell R., Dominguez J.A., Csepany T., Sirbu C., Sormani M.P., Butzkueven H., Kalincik T., Sharmin S., Bovis F., Malpas C., Horakova D., Havrdova E., Izquierdo G., Eichau S., Trojano M., Prat A., Girard M., Duquette P., Onofrj M., Lugaresi A., Grand'Maison F., Grammond P., Sola P., Ferraro D., Terzi M., Gerlach O., Alroughani R., Boz C., Shaygannejad V., van Pesch V., Cartechini E., Kappos L., Lechner-Scott J., Bergamaschi R., Turkoglu R., Solaro C., Iuliano G., Granella F., Van Wijmeersch B., Spitaleri D., Slee M., McCombe P., Prevost J., Ampapa R., Ozakbas S., Sanchez-Menoyo J., Soysal A., Vucic S., Petersen T., de Gans K., Butler E., Hodgkinson S., Sidhom Y., Gouider R., Cristiano E., Castillo-Trivino T., Saladino M., Barnett M., Moore F., Rozsa C., Yamout B., Skibina O., van der Walt A., Buzzard K., Gray O., Hughes S., Sempere A.P., Singhal B., Fragoso Y., Shaw C., Kermode A., Taylor B., Simo M., Shuey N., Al-Harbi T., Macdonell R., Dominguez J.A., Csepany T., Sirbu C., Sormani M.P., Butzkueven H., and Kalincik T.

Abstract

Background and purpose: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Method(s): In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Result(s): The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusion(s): Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.Copyright © 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behal

Published
2022

3. Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis

Author

Sharmin, S., Bovis, F., Malpas, C., Horakova, D., Havrdova, E.K., Izquierdo, G., Eichau, S., Trojano, M., Prat, A., Girard, M., Duquette, P., Onofrj, M., Lugaresi, A., Grand'Maison, F., Grammond, P., Sola, P., Ferraro, D., Terzi, M., Gerlach, O., Alroughani, R., Boz, C., Shaygannejad, V., van Pesch, V., Cartechini, E., Kappos, L., Lechner‐Scott, J., Bergamaschi, R., Turkoglu, R., Solaro, C., Iuliano, G., Granella, F., Van Wijmeersch, B., Spitaleri, D., Slee, M., McCombe, P., Prevost, J., Ampapa, R., Ozakbas, S., Sanchez‐Menoyo, J.L., Soysal, A., Vucic, S., Petersen, T., de Gans, K., Butler, E., Hodgkinson, S., Sidhom, Y., Gouider, R., Cristiano, E., Castillo‐Triviño, T., Saladino, M.L., Barnett, M., Moore, F., Rozsa, C., Yamout, B., Skibina, O., van der Walt, A., Buzzard, K., Gray, O., Hughes, S., Sempere, A.P., Singhal, B., Fragoso, Y., Shaw, C., Kermode, A., Taylor, B., Simo, M., Shuey, N., Al‐Harbi, T., Macdonell, R., Dominguez, J.A., Csepany, T., Sirbu, C.A., Sormani, M.P., Butzkueven, H., Kalincik, T., Sharmin, S., Bovis, F., Malpas, C., Horakova, D., Havrdova, E.K., Izquierdo, G., Eichau, S., Trojano, M., Prat, A., Girard, M., Duquette, P., Onofrj, M., Lugaresi, A., Grand'Maison, F., Grammond, P., Sola, P., Ferraro, D., Terzi, M., Gerlach, O., Alroughani, R., Boz, C., Shaygannejad, V., van Pesch, V., Cartechini, E., Kappos, L., Lechner‐Scott, J., Bergamaschi, R., Turkoglu, R., Solaro, C., Iuliano, G., Granella, F., Van Wijmeersch, B., Spitaleri, D., Slee, M., McCombe, P., Prevost, J., Ampapa, R., Ozakbas, S., Sanchez‐Menoyo, J.L., Soysal, A., Vucic, S., Petersen, T., de Gans, K., Butler, E., Hodgkinson, S., Sidhom, Y., Gouider, R., Cristiano, E., Castillo‐Triviño, T., Saladino, M.L., Barnett, M., Moore, F., Rozsa, C., Yamout, B., Skibina, O., van der Walt, A., Buzzard, K., Gray, O., Hughes, S., Sempere, A.P., Singhal, B., Fragoso, Y., Shaw, C., Kermode, A., Taylor, B., Simo, M., Shuey, N., Al‐Harbi, T., Macdonell, R., Dominguez, J.A., Csepany, T., Sirbu, C.A., Sormani, M.P., Butzkueven, H., and Kalincik, T.

Abstract

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Published
2022

8. Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis

Author

Roos, Izanne, Leray, Emmanuelle, Frascoli, Federico, Casey, Romain, Brown, J William L, Horakova, Dana, Havrdova, Eva, Trojano, Maria, Patti, Francesco, Izquierdo, Guillermo, Eichau, Sara, Onofrj, Marco, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Prat, Alexandre, Girard, Marc, Grammond, Pierre, Sola, Patrizia, Ferraro, Diana, Ozakbas, Serkan, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Sá, Maria José, Cartechini, Elisabetta, Boz, Cavit, Granella, Franco, Hupperts, Raymond, Terzi, Murat, Lechner-Scott, Jeannette, Spitaleri, Daniele, Van Pesch, Vincent, Soysal, Aysun, Olascoaga, Javier, Prevost, Julie, Aguera-Morales, Eduardo, Slee, Mark, Csepany, Tunde, Turkoglu, Recai, Sidhom, Youssef, Gouider, Riadh, Van Wijmeersch, Bart, McCombe, Pamela, Macdonell, Richard, Coles, Alasdair, Malpas, Charles, Butzkueven, Helmut, Vukusic, Sandra, Kalincik, Tomas, Duquette, Pierre, Grand'Maison, Francois, Iuliano, Gerardo, Ramo-Tello, Cristina, Solaro, Claudio, Cabrera-Gomez, Jose Antonio, Rio, Maria Edite, Bolaños, Ricardo Fernandez, Shaygannejad, Vahid, Oreja-Guevara, Celia, Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis, Petersen, Thor, Altintas, Ayse, Barnett, Michael, Flechter, Shlomo, Fragoso, Yara, Amato, Maria Pia, Moore, Fraser, Ampapa, Radek, Verheul, Freek, Hodgkinson, Suzanne, Cristiano, Edgardo, Yamout, Bassem, Laureys, Guy, Dominguez, Jose Andres, Zwanikken, Cees, Deri, Norma, Dobos, Eniko, Vrech, Carlos, Butler, Ernest, Rozsa, Csilla, Petkovska-Boskova, Tatjana, Karabudak, Rana, Rajda, Cecilia, Alkhaboori, Jabir, Saladino, Maria Laura, Shaw, Cameron, Shuey, Neil, Vucic, Steve, Sempere, Angel Perez, Campbell, Jamie, Piroska, Imre, Taylor, Bruce, van der Walt, Anneke, Kappos, Ludwig, Roullet, Etienne, Gray, Orla, Simo, Magdolna, Sirbu, Carmen-Adella, Brochet, Bruno, Cotton, François, De Sèze, Jérôme, Dion, Armelle, Douek, Pascal, Guillemin, Francis, Laplaud, David, Lebrun-Frenay, Christine, Moreau, Thibault, Olaiz, Javier, Pelletier, Jean, Rigaud-Bully, Claire, Stankoff, Bruno, Marignier, Romain, Debouverie, Marc, Edan, Gilles, Ciron, Jonathan, Ruet, Aurélie, Collongues, Nicolas, Lubetzki, Catherine, Vermersch, Patrick, Labauge, Pierre, Defer, Gilles, Cohen, Mikaël, Fromont, Agnès, Wiertlewsky, Sandrine, Berger, Eric, Clavelou, Pierre, Audoin, Bertrand, Giannesini, Claire, Gout, Olivier, Thouvenot, Eric, Heinzlef, Olivier, Al-Khedr, Abdullatif, Bourre, Bertrand, Casez, Olivier, Cabre, Philippe, Montcuquet, Alexis, Créange, Alain, Camdessanché, Jean-Philippe, Faure, Justine, Maurousset, Aude, Patry, Ivania, Hankiewicz, Karolina, Pottier, Corinne, Maubeuge, Nicolas, Labeyrie, Céline, Nifle, Chantal, University of Melbourne, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Recherche en Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Recours aux Soins (REPERES), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique (METIS), Swinburne University of Technology [Melbourne], Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Medicine Charles University and General Faculty Hospital in Prague, University of Bari Aldo Moro (UNIBA), University of Catania [Italy], Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena [Seville, Spain], University 'G. d'Annunzio' of Chieti-Pescara [Chieti], Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Université de Montréal (UdeM), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Partenaires INRAE, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi = Dokuz Eylül University [Izmir] (DEÜ), IRCCS Mondino Foundation, Universidade Fernando Pessoa, KTU Medical Faculty Farabi Hospital, University of Parma = Università degli studi di Parma [Parme, Italie], Zuyderland Ziekenhuis, Medical Faculty [Samsun, Turkey], University of Newcastle [Australia] (UoN), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Bakirkoy Education and Research Hospital for Psychiatric and Neurological Diseases, Hospital Universitario Donostia, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofía de Córdoba, Instituto Maimonides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba (IMIBIC), Haydarpasa Numune Training and Research Hospital, Hasselt University (UHasselt), University of Queensland [Brisbane], Hitachi Cambridge Laboratory [University of Cambridge], Hitachi, Ltd-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Monash University [Melbourne], Centre de Recherche du Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal (CR CHUM), Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CHUM), Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université de Montréal (UdeM), Ospedali Riuniti di Salerno, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire [Montpellier] (CHRU Montpellier), Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre hospitalier universitaire de Poitiers (CHU Poitiers), AP-HP Hôpital Bicêtre (Le Kremlin-Bicêtre), 1157717, National Health and Medical Research Council, Biogen, MSIF-ARSEP McDonald, Melbourne Research Scholarship, French State, ‘Agence Nationale de la Recherche,’, ANR-10-COHO-002, ‘Investments for the Future’, Eugène Devic EDMUS Foundation, ARSEP Foundation, Novartis, Merck, Roche, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Sanofi Genzyme, EDMUS Foundation, UCL - SSS/IONS/CEMO - Pôle Cellulaire et moléculaire, UCL - (SLuc) Service de neurologie, Roos I., Leray E., Frascoli F., Casey R., Brown W.J.L., Horakova D., Havrdova E.K., Trojano M., Patti F., Izquierdo G., Eichau S., Onofrj M., Lugaresi A., Prat A., Girard M., Grammond P., Sola P., Ferraro D., Ozakbas S., Bergamaschi R., Sa M.J., Cartechini E., Boz C., Granella F., Hupperts R., Terzi M., Lechner-Scott J., Spitaleri D., van Pesch V., Soysal A., Olascoaga J., Prevost J., Aguera-Morales E., Slee M., Csepany T., Turkoglu R., Sidhom Y., Gouider R., van Wijmeersch B., McCombe P., Macdonell R., Coles A., Malpas C.B., Butzkueven H., Vukusic S., Kalincik T., Duquette P., Grand'Maison F., Iuliano G., Ramo-Tello C., Solaro C., Cabrera-Gomez J.A., Rio M.E., Bolanos R.F., Shaygannejad V., Oreja-Guevara C., Sanchez-Menoyo J.L., Petersen T., Altintas A., Barnett M., Flechter S., Fragoso Y., Amato M.P., Moore F., Ampapa R., Verheul F., Hodgkinson S., Cristiano E., Yamout B., Laureys G., Dominguez J.A., Zwanikken C., Deri N., Dobos E., Vrech C., Butler E., Rozsa C., Petkovska-Boskova T., Karabudak R., Rajda C., Alkhaboori J., Saladino M.L., Shaw C., Shuey N., Vucic S., Sempere A.P., Campbell J., Piroska I., Taylor B., van der Walt A., Kappos L., Roullet E., Gray O., Simo M., Sirbu C.-A., Brochet B., Cotton F., de Seze J., Dion A., Douek P., Guillemin F., Laplaud D., Lebrun-Frenay C., Moreau T., Olaiz J., Pelletier J., Rigaud-Bully C., Stankoff B., Marignier R., Debouverie M., Edan G., Ciron J., Ruet A., Collongues N., Lubetzki C., Vermersch P., Labauge P., Defer G., Cohen M., Fromont A., Wiertlewsky S., Berger E., Clavelou P., Audoin B., Giannesini C., Gout O., Thouvenot E., Heinzlef O., Al-Khedr A., Bourre B., Casez O., Cabre P., Montcuquet A., Creange A., Camdessanche J.-P., Faure J., Maurousset A., Patry I., Hankiewicz K., Pottier C., Maubeuge N., Labeyrie C., Nifle C., Brown, Will [0000-0002-7737-5834], Coles, Alasdair [0000-0003-4738-0760], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, McCombe, Pamela/0000-0003-2704-8517, Slee, Mark/0000-0003-4323-2453, Brown, William/0000-0002-7737-5834, Laplaud, David/0000-0001-6113-6938, Ciron, Jonathan/0000-0002-3386-6308, Roos, Izanne/0000-0003-0371-3666, Lugaresi, Alessandra/0000-0003-2902-5589, Aguera-Morales, Eduardo/0000-0002-8604-2054, Kalincik, Tomas, Girard, Marc, Patti, Francesco, Horakova, Dana, Malpas, Charles B., Olascoaga, Javier, Prevost, Julie, Roos, Izanne, Hupperts, Raymond, Csepany, Tunde, VAN WIJMEERSCH, Bart, Ferraro, Diana, Aguera-Morales, Eduardo, Cartechini, Elisabetta, Vukusic, Sandra, Frascoli, Federico, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Sa, Maria Jose, Butzkueven, Helmut, Spitaleri, Daniele, Macdonell, Richard, Coles, Alasdair, Havrdova, Eva K., Granella, Franco, Turkoglu, Recai, Trojano, Maria, Sola, Patrizia, Van Pesch, Vincent, Onofrj, Marco, Grammond, Pierre, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Izquierdo, Guillermo, McCombe, Pamela, Slee, Mark, Eichau, Sara, Prat, Alexandre, Leray, Emmanuelle, Soysal, Aysun, Terzi, Murat, Brown, J. William L., Boz, Cavit, Sidhom, Youssef, Gouider, Riadh, Ozakbas, Serkan, Casey, Romain, Lechner-Scott, Jeannette, Université de Rennes (UR)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Università degli studi di Bari Aldo Moro = University of Bari Aldo Moro (UNIBA), Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena [Séville], Università degli studi di Parma = University of Parma (UNIPR), University of Newcastle [Callaghan, Australia] (UoN), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-Hitachi, Ltd, and ANR-10-COHO-0002,OFSEP,Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques(2010)

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Multiple Sclerosis, Time Factors, multiple sclerosis, law.invention, Cohort Studies, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Natalizumab, Randomized controlled trial, law, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, Immunologic Factors, Multiple sclerosi, 030212 general & internal medicine, Prospective Studies, Registries, Prospective cohort study, therapeutic lag, business.industry, Multiple sclerosis, Interferon beta-1a, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Fingolimod, 3. Good health, Treatment Outcome, Cohort, Disease Progression, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Female, Neurology (clinical), business, Immunotherapies, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Immunosuppressive Agents, Therapeutic lag, prognosis, treatment, medicine.drug, Cohort study, Follow-Up Studies
Abstract

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag. This study was supported by the EDMUS Foundation, Biogen and NHMRC (1140766, 1129189, 1157717). I.R. is supported by a MSIF-ARSEP McDonald fellowship grant and a Melbourne Research Scholarship. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Biogen, Novartis, Merck, Roche, Teva and Sanofi Genzyme. The Observatoire Francais de la Sclerose en Plaques (OFSEP) is supported by a grant provided by the French State and handled by the 'Agence Nationale de la Recherche,' within the framework of the 'Investments for the Future' program, under the reference ANR-10-COHO-002, by the Eugene Devic EDMUS Foundation against multiple sclerosis and by the ARSEP Foundation. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors. Kalincik, T (corresponding author), Univ Melbourne, Dept Med, CORe, 300 Grattan St, Melbourne, Vic 3050, Australia. tomas.kalincik@unimelb.edu.au

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