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1. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Guo, Y. (Yuming)

Abstract

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability: However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° degrees from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1753392 deaths (95% CI 1159 901–2357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, ac

Published
2022

2. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Li, S. (Shanshan)

Abstract

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), l

Published
2021

3. Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Author

Young Lee, J. (Jae), Kim, H. (Ho), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Sera, F. (Francesco), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Tong, S. (Shilu), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Matus Correa, P. (Patricia), Valdes Ortega, N. (Nicolas), Kan, H. (Haidong), Osorio Garcia, S. (Samuel), Kyselý, J. (Jan), Urban, A. (Aleš), Orru, H. (Hans), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R. I.), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. G. (Patrick G.), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Scortichini, M. (Matteo), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Hurtado, M. (Magali), Cruz, J. (Julio), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Paulo Teixeira, J. (João), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Íñiguez, C. (Carmen), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Åström, C. (Christofer), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Leon Guo, Y.-L. (Yue-Liang), Chen, B.-Y. (Bing-Yu), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Ngoc Dang, T. (Tran), Van, D. D. (Dung Do), Mayvaneh, F. (Fetemeh), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Li, S. (Shanshan), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Young Lee, J. (Jae), Kim, H. (Ho), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Sera, F. (Francesco), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Tong, S. (Shilu), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Matus Correa, P. (Patricia), Valdes Ortega, N. (Nicolas), Kan, H. (Haidong), Osorio Garcia, S. (Samuel), Kyselý, J. (Jan), Urban, A. (Aleš), Orru, H. (Hans), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R. I.), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. G. (Patrick G.), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Scortichini, M. (Matteo), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Hurtado, M. (Magali), Cruz, J. (Julio), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Paulo Teixeira, J. (João), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Íñiguez, C. (Carmen), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Åström, C. (Christofer), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Leon Guo, Y.-L. (Yue-Liang), Chen, B.-Y. (Bing-Yu), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Ngoc Dang, T. (Tran), Van, D. D. (Dung Do), Mayvaneh, F. (Fetemeh), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Li, S. (Shanshan), and Guo, Y. (Yuming)

Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Published
2019

4. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Author

Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Sera, F. (Francesco), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Huber, V. (Veronika), Tong, S. (Shilu), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Matus Correa, P. (Patricia), Valdes Ortega, N. (Nicolas), Kan, H. (Haidong), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Kyselý, J. (Jan), Urban, A. (Aleš), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J K), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R I), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. G. (Patrick G), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Scortichini, M. (Matteo), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Hurtado-Diaz, M. (Magali), Cesar Cruz, J. (Julio), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Kim, H. (Ho), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Iñiguez, C. (Carmen), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Åström, D. O. (Daniel Oudin), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Wu, C.-f. (Chang-fu), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Van, D. D. (Dung Do), Heaviside, C. (Clare), Vardoulakis, S. (Sotiris), Hajat, S. (Shakoor), Haines, A. (Andy), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Sera, F. (Francesco), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Huber, V. (Veronika), Tong, S. (Shilu), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Matus Correa, P. (Patricia), Valdes Ortega, N. (Nicolas), Kan, H. (Haidong), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Kyselý, J. (Jan), Urban, A. (Aleš), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J K), Ryti, N. R. (Niilo R I), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Goodman, P. G. (Patrick G), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Scortichini, M. (Matteo), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Hurtado-Diaz, M. (Magali), Cesar Cruz, J. (Julio), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Kim, H. (Ho), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Iñiguez, C. (Carmen), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Åström, D. O. (Daniel Oudin), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Wu, C.-f. (Chang-fu), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Van, D. D. (Dung Do), Heaviside, C. (Clare), Vardoulakis, S. (Sotiris), Hajat, S. (Shakoor), Haines, A. (Andy), and Armstrong, B. (Ben)

Abstract

Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sh

Published
2017

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