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There is a lack of validated predictors on which to decide the timing of discharge in patients already hospitalized for upper nonvariceal bleeding.Identify factors that appear to protect nonvariceal bleeders from the development of negative outcome (rebleeding, surgery, death).Secondary analysis of two prospective multicenter studies. Multivariate analyses for each investigated outcome were performed; a single model was developed including all factors that were statistically significant in each sub-model. A final score was developed to predict favourable outcomes. Prognostic accuracy was tested with ROC curve analysis.Out of 2398 patients, 211 (8.8%) developed one or more adverse outcomes: 87 (3.63%) had rebleeding, 46 (1.92%) needed surgery and 107 (4.46%) died. Predictors of favourable prognosis were: ASA score 1 or 2, absence of neoplasia, outpatient bleeding, use of low-dose aspirin, no need for transfusions, clean-based ulcer, age70 years, no haemodynamic instability successful endoscopic diagnosis/therapy, no Dieulafoy's lesion at endoscopy, no hematemesis on presentation and no need for endoscopic treatment. Overall prognostic accuracy of the model was 83%. The final score accurately identified 20-30% of patients that eventually do not develop any negative outcome.The "good luck score" may be a useful tool in deciding when to discharge a patient already hospitalized for acute non-variceal bleeding.

Background and aim Data about small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) come from studies involving small and highly selected populations. The study aim was to describe extent of use, indications, results, complications, and practical issues of SBCE in clinical practice in a Northern Italian Region (Lombardia). Materials and methods Twenty-three out of 29 invited centers fulfilled a specific questionnaire. Results Between 2001 and 2008, 2921 procedures were performed and both the number of centers performing SBCE (from 5 to 29) and the number of SBCE (from 7.2 to 69.2 per month) increased steadily. The main indications for SBCE were: obscure gastrointestinal bleeding (OGIB) (43.4%), unexplained anemia (23.9%), suspected Crohn's disease (7.8%) and abdominal pain (5.3%). Overall, SBCE was positive in 50% of cases, negative in 36% and undefined in 14%. The highest diagnostic yields were observed in patients with OGIB (62.5%), polypoid syndromes (74.1%), known (54.8%) or suspected (47.3%) inflammatory bowel disease, while the yields were low in patients examined for chronic diarrhea (27.4%) and abdominal pain (14.9%), 61 patients (2.1%) experienced capsule retention. Thirty-two of them eventually excreted the capsule naturally while endoscopic or surgical retrieval was necessary in 29 (1%) (in two because of obstruction). Conclusion Over a period of 7 years the use of SBCE in Lombardia increased steadily confirming, in clinical practice, a high diagnostic yield and an acceptable safety profile.

From an Italian Registry of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), we assessed the clinical outcomes and explored the roles of clinical, endoscopic, and therapeutic factors on 30-day mortality in a real life setting.Prospective analysis of consecutive patients endoscoped for UGIH at 23 community and tertiary care institutions from 2003 to 2004. Covariates and outcomes were defined a priori and 30-day follow-up obtained. Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of mortality.One thousand and twenty patients were included. A total of 46 patients died for an overall 4.5% mortality rate. In all, 85% of deaths were associated with one or more major comorbidity. Sixteen of 46 patients (35%) died within the first 24 h of the onset of bleeding. Of these, eight had been categorized as ASA class 1 or 2 and none of them was operated upon, despite a failure of endoscopic intention to treatment in four. Regression analysis showed advanced age, presence of severe comorbidity, low hemoglobin levels at presentation, and worsening health status as the only independent predictors of 30-day mortality (P0.001). The acute use of a PPI exerted a protective effect (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09-0.73). Recurrent bleeding was low (3.2%). Rebleeders accounted for only 11% of the total patients deceased (OR 3.27, 95% CI 1.5-11.2).These results indicate that 30-day mortality for nonvariceal bleeding is low. Deaths occurred predominantly in elderly patients with severe comorbidities or those with failure of endoscopic intention to treatment.

Controlled trials of sclerotherapy for the prevention of the first variceal hemorrhage in cirrhotics have given conflicting results. In the present study, 106 cirrhotics were randomized to sclerotherapy (55 patients) or control group (51 patients). Admission criteria were no history of previous variceal bleeding and the presence of high-risk varices, i.e., a variceal score less than or equal to 0 according to Beppu et al. Sclerotherapy sessions were performed at time zero, 7 days, 30 days, and then monthly until eradication. Follow-up endoscopies were performed at 6-month intervals thereafter. Control patients underwent repeat endoscopy at 6-month intervals. Bleeding episodes were treated by sclerotherapy in both groups, whenever possible. Mean follow-up was 24 months. Analysis of the results was performed by the intention-to-treat method. Variceal bleeding occurred in 19 sclerotherapy patients (34.5%) and in 17 controls (35.4%, P = NS). Overall mortality was 34.5% in sclerotherapy patients and 50% in controls (P = NS). Seven of the 19 sclerotherapy patients (36.8%) and 11 of the 17 controls (64.7%) who bled died of hemorrhage (P less than 0.05, log-linear model). It is concluded that prophylactic sclerotherapy does not reduce the incidence of first variceal bleeding in cirrhotics. However, there seems to be a trend toward a lower bleeding-related mortality in sclerotherapy patients than in controls.