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BackgroundKey components of Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) plan include increasing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage. One complication to addressing this service delivery challenge is the wide heterogeneity of HIV burden and health care access across the United States. It is unclear how the effectiveness and efficiency of expanded PrEP will depend on different baseline ART coverage.MethodsWe used a network-based model of HIV transmission for men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Model scenarios increased varying levels of PrEP coverage relative under current empirical levels of baseline ART coverage and 2 counterfactual levels. We assessed the effectiveness of PrEP with the cumulative percentage of infections averted (PIA) over the next decade and efficiency with the number of additional person-years needed to treat (NNT) by PrEP required to avert one HIV infection.ResultsIn our projections, only the highest levels of combined PrEP and ART coverage achieved the EHE goals. Increasing PrEP coverage up to 75% showed that PrEP effectiveness was higher at higher baseline ART coverage. Indeed, the PIA was 61% in the lowest baseline ART coverage population and 75% in the highest. The efficiency declined with increasing ART (NNT range from 41 to 113).ConclusionsImproving both PrEP and ART coverage would have a synergistic impact on HIV prevention even in a high baseline coverage city such as San Francisco. Efforts should focus on narrowing the implementation gaps to achieve higher levels of PrEP retention and ART sustained viral suppression.

Sexual selection is a key evolutionary force but varies widely between populations. Two key factors that influence sexual selection are the extent to which females copulate with multiple males (polyandry) and variation in the social environment. Increasing research demonstrates populations are structured by complex socio‐sexual networks, and the structure of these networks can influence sexual selection by shaping the relationship between male precopulatory mating success and the intensity of postcopulatory competition. However, comparatively less attention has been dedicated to the influence of group structure on sexual selection and how differences in the size of groups may impact on the relative force of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection in polyandrous populations. The presence of groups (i.e., group structure) and the size of groups varies widely in nature and forms an implicit part of much experimental sexual selection research under laboratory conditions. Here I use simulations of mating competition within populations that vary in the size of groups they contain, to show that variation in group size, and in particular small groups, can influence sexual selection. Specifically, I show that null expectations for the operation of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection is governed by the size of groups within populations because smaller group sizes constrain the structure of sexual networks leading to reinforcing episodes of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection. Given broad variation in group structure in nature and the tendency for experimental sexual selection research to study replicate small groups, these effects have implications for our understanding of the operation of sexual selection in polyandrous populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV self-testing (HIVST) is recommended as a promising way to increase HIV testing uptake among MSM. MSM sometimes used HIVST kits together with their sexual partners or friends. However, limited data was reported on MSM's testing together behaviors with sexual partners and non-sexual contacts. Data were collected among MSM in China from June 2018 to June 2019. Eligible participants (referred to as "index participants") finished a baseline survey and applied for HIVST kits. They were encouraged to distribute the kits to other people (referred to as "alters"). Index participants finished a 3-month follow-up survey on the distribution and usage of the kits. Alters finished an online survey on the usage of HIVST kits after they returned the photographed testing results. Results were reported based on index participants and alters, respectively. Based on follow-up data, 138 index participants successfully motivated others for HIVST, most of them (77.5%) tested together with at least one alter. Around half of alters (52.3%) reported testing together with index participants. Index participants distributed more HIVST kits to friends than sexual partners. MSM who had ever tested for HIV were more likely to test together. Our study demonstrated that the testing together behaviors during HIVST distribution among sexual partners and social network contacts were common. The social network-based approach is essential in promoting testing together and HIV status disclosure among MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Sexual selection is a key evolutionary force but varies widely between populations. Two key factors that influence sexual selection are the extent to which females copulate with multiple males (polyandry) and variation in the social environment. Increasing research demonstrates populations are structured by complex socio‐sexual networks, and the structure of these networks can influence sexual selection by shaping the relationship between male precopulatory mating success and the intensity of postcopulatory competition. However, comparatively less attention has been dedicated to the influence of group structure on sexual selection and how differences in the size of groups may impact on the relative force of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection in polyandrous populations. The presence of groups (i.e., group structure) and the size of groups varies widely in nature and forms an implicit part of much experimental sexual selection research under laboratory conditions. Here I use simulations of mating competition within populations that vary in the size of groups they contain, to show that variation in group size, and in particular small groups, can influence sexual selection. Specifically, I show that null expectations for the operation of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection is governed by the size of groups within populations because smaller group sizes constrain the structure of sexual networks leading to reinforcing episodes of pre‐ and postcopulatory sexual selection. Given broad variation in group structure in nature and the tendency for experimental sexual selection research to study replicate small groups, these effects have implications for our understanding of the operation of sexual selection in polyandrous populations.

Background: In the United States, the rates of primary and secondary syphilis have increased more rapidly among men who have sex with men (MSM) than among any other subpopulation. Rising syphilis rates among MSM reflect changes in both individual behaviors and the role of sexual networks (eg, persons linked directly or indirectly by sexual contact) in the spread of the infection. Decades of research examined how sexual networks influence sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among MSM; however, few longitudinal data sources focusing on syphilis have collected network characteristics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with 3 sites, enrolled a prospective cohort of MSM in 3 US cities to longitudinally study sexual behaviors and STIs, including HIV, for up to 24 months. Objective: The Network Epidemiology of Syphilis Transmission (NEST) study aimed to collect data on the factors related to syphilis transmission and acquisition among MSM. Methods: The NEST study was a prospective cohort study that enrolled 748 MSM in Baltimore, Maryland; Chicago, Illinois; and Columbus, Ohio. NEST recruitment used a combination of convenience sampling, venue-based recruitment, and respondent-driven sampling approaches. At quarterly visits, participants completed a behavioral questionnaire and were tested for syphilis, HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia. The participants also provided a list of their sexual partners and described their 3 most recent partners in greater detail. Results: The NEST participants were enrolled in the study from July 2018 to December 2021. At baseline, the mean age of the participants was 31.5 (SD 9.1) years. More than half (396/727. 54.5%) of the participants were non-Hispanic Black, 29.8% (217/727) were non-Hispanic White, and 8.8% (64/727) were Hispanic or Latino. Multiple recruitment strategies across the 3 study locations, including respondent-driven sampling, clinic referrals, flyers, and social media advertisements, strengthened NEST participation. Upon the completion of follow-up visits in March 2022, the mean number of visits per participant was 5.1 (SD 3.2; range 1-9) in Baltimore, 2.2 (SD 1.6; range 1-8) in Chicago, and 7.2 (SD 2.9; range 1-9) in Columbus. Using a community-based participatory research approach, site-specific staff were able to draw upon collaborations with local communities to address stigma concerning STIs, particularly syphilis, among potential NEST participants. Community-led efforts also provided a forum for staff to describe the NEST study objectives and plans for research dissemination to the target audience. Strategies to bolster data collection during the COVID-19 pandemic included telehealth visits (all sites) and adaptation to self-collection of STI specimens (Baltimore only). Conclusions: Data from NEST will be used to address important questions regarding individual and partnership-based sexual risk behaviors among MSM, with the goal of informing interventions to prevent syphilis in high-burden areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term mobility can significantly influence the spread of infectious disease. In order for mobile individuals to geographically spread sexually transmitted infections (STIs), individuals must engage in sexual acts with different partners in two places within a short time. In this study, we considered the potential of mobile individuals as bridge populations - individuals who link otherwise disconnected sexual networks and contributed to ongoing STI transmission. Using monthly retrospective panel data, we examined associations between short-term mobility and sexual partner concurrency in Agbogbloshie, Ghana. We also examined bridging by the location of sex acts and the location of sexual partners in concurrent triads, and whether mobile individuals from our sample were more likely to be members of geographic bridging triads. Although reported rates of sexual partnership concurrency were much higher for men compared to women, mobility was only associated with increased concurrency for women. Additionally, this association held for middle-distance mobility and short-duration trips for women. Taking into account the location of sex acts and the location of sexual partners, about 22% of men (21.7% and 22.4% for mobile and non-mobile men, respectively) and only 3% of women (1.4% and 3.3% for mobile and non-mobile women, respectively) were potential bridges for STIs over the last year. Our results highlight the gendered nature of mobility and sexual risk behavior, reflecting the normative social context that encourages women to conceal certain types of sexual behavior.

Mathematical models of sexually transmitted disease (STI) are increasingly relied on to inform policy, practice, and resource allocation. Because STI transmission requires sexual contact between two or more people, a model's ability to represent the dynamics of sexual partnerships can influence the validity of findings. This ability is to a large extent constrained by the model type, as different modeling frameworks vary in their capability to capture patterns of sexual contact at individual, partnership, and network levels. In this paper, we classify models into three groups: compartmental, individual-based, and statistical network models. For each framework, we describe the basic model structure and discuss key aspects of sexual partnership dynamics: how and with whom partnerships are formed, partnership duration and dissolution, and temporal overlap in partnerships (concurrency). We illustrate the potential implications of accurately accounting for partnership dynamics, but these effects depend on characteristics of both the population and pathogen; the combined impact of these partnership and epidemiologic dynamics can be difficult to predict. While each of the reviewed model frameworks may be appropriate to inform certain research or policy questions, modelers and consumers of models should carefully consider the implications of sexual partnership dynamics for the questions under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most reported sexually transmitted infection in the United States, with a major cause of infertility, pelvic inflammatory disease, and ectopic pregnancy among women. Despite decades of screening women for Ct, rates increase among young African Americans (AA). We create and analyze a heterosexual agent-based network model to help understand the spread of Ct. We calibrate the model parameters to agree with survey data showing Ct prevalence of 12% of the women and 10% of the men in the 15–25 year-old AA in New Orleans, Louisiana. Our model accounts for both long-term and casual partnerships. The network captures the assortative mixing of individuals by preserving the joint-degree distributions observed in the data. We compare the effectiveness of intervention strategies based on randomly screening men, notifying partners of infected people, which includes partner treatment, partner screening, and rescreening for infection. We compare the difference between treating partners of an infected person both with and without testing them. We observe that although increased Ct screening, rescreening, and treating most of the partners of infected people will reduce the prevalence, these mitigations alone are not sufficient to control the epidemic. The current practice is to treat the partners of an infected individual without first testing them for infection. The model predicts that if a sufficient number of the partners of all infected people are tested and treated, then there is a threshold condition where the epidemic can be mitigated. This threshold results from the expanded treatment network created by treating an individual’s infected partners’ partners. Although these conclusions can help design future Ct mitigation studies, we caution the reader that these conclusions are for the mathematical model, not the real world, and are contingent on the validity of the model assumptions.

Background: Long-acting injectable (LAI) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is reportedly efficacious, although full trial results have not been published. We used a dynamic network model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men to assess the population impact of LAI-PrEP when available concurrently with daily-oral (DO) PrEP.Methods: The reference model represents the current HIV epidemiology and DO-PrEP coverage (15% among those with behavioral indications for PrEP) among men who have sex with men in the southeastern United States. Primary analyses investigated varied PrEP uptake and proportion selecting LAI-PrEP. Secondary analyses evaluated uncertainty in pharmacokinetic efficacy and LAI-PrEP persistence relative to DO-PrEP.Results: Compared with the reference scenario, if 50% chose LAI-PrEP, 4.3% (95% simulation interval, -7.3% to 14.5%) of infections would be averted over 10 years. The impact of LAI-PrEP is slightly greater than that of the DO-PrEP-only regimen, based on assumptions of higher adherence and partial protection after discontinuation. If the total PrEP initiation rate doubled, 17.1% (95% simulation interval, 6.7%-26.4%) of infections would be averted. The highest population-level impact occurred when LAI-PrEP uptake and persistence improved.Conclusions: If LAI-PrEP replaces DO-PrEP, its availability will modestly improve the population impact. LAI-PrEP will make a more substantial impact if its availability drives higher total PrEP coverage, or if persistence is greater for LAI-PrEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People involved in commercial sex are thought to be at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) transmission. To explore the characteristics of female sex workers' (FSWs) sexual networks and how FSWs and their sex partners could serve as 'bridges' in HIV/AIDS transmission, egocentric sexual networks (where a subject is asked to identify his or her sexual contacts and their relationships) of 66 FSWs in Xi'an city, Shaanxi Province of China, were studied. Convenience sampling was used to collect FSWs' socio-demographic and sexual behavior data, which we analyzed using social network and descriptive statistical methods. Results show that some egocentric sexual networks were connected by sex partners, and these were integrated into several components of a sexual network. According to centrality indicators, FSWs and their commercial sex partners (especially regular clients) served as key nodes within high-risk groups and as bridges between high-risk groups and the general population. The cluster of high-risk groups with cohesive sub-networks had larger network size (P < 0.001), more complex network structures, and more high-risk members (P < 0.05) than other isolated networks. The sexual network of FSWs was characterized by multiple sexual relations (680), unstable relationships (50.15%), and a high rate of inconsistent condom use with non-commercial sex partners (31.22%). By linking commercial and non-commercial sexual networks, the FSWs and their clients can become effective bridges for HIV/AIDS spread from high-risk groups to the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV prevalence varies between 0% and 1.6% in India's states. The factors underpinning this variation are poorly defined. Methods: We evaluated the relationship between HIV prevalence by state and a range of risk factors in the Indian 2015 National Family Health Survey. Pearson’s correlation was used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable. The prevalence of each risk factor was compared between five high-HIV-prevalence states (>1% prevalence) and a large low-HIV-prevalence state (Uttar Pradesh; HIV prevalence, 0.06%). Results: There was an association between HIV prevalence and men's mean lifetime number of partners (r = 0.55; P = 0.001) and men reporting sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (r = 0.40; P = 0.014). In general, men in high-prevalence states were less likely to be circumcised and (with the exception of Chandigarh) use condoms at last sex. In two high prevalence states (Mizoram and Nagaland), men reported a higher number of lifetime partners and a higher prevalence of multiple partners and high-risk sex in the past year. Conclusions: Variation in circumcision prevalence and sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence by state in India.

Background: HIV prevalence varies between 0% and 1.6% in India's states. The factors underpinning this variation are poorly defined. Methods: We evaluated the relationship between HIV prevalence by state and a range of risk factors in the Indian 2015 National Family Health Survey. Pearson’s correlation was used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable. The prevalence of each risk factor was compared between five high-HIV-prevalence states (>1% prevalence) and a large low-HIV-prevalence state (Uttar Pradesh; HIV prevalence, 0.06%). Results: There was an association between HIV prevalence and men's mean lifetime number of partners (r = 0.55; P = 0.001) and men reporting sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (r = 0.40; P = 0.014). In general, men in high-prevalence states were less likely to be circumcised and (with the exception of Chandigarh) use condoms at last sex. In two high prevalence states (Mizoram and Nagaland), men reported a higher number of lifetime partners and a higher prevalence of multiple partners and high-risk sex in the past year. Conclusions: Variation in circumcision prevalence and sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence by state in India.

Purpose: To investigate HIV transmission potential from a cluster of HIV infections among men who have sex with men to persons who inject drugs in 15 West Virginia counties. These counties were previously identified as highly vulnerable to rapid HIV dissemination through injection drug use (IDU) associated with high levels of opioid misuse.Methods: We interviewed persons with 2017 HIV diagnoses about past-year risk behaviors and elicited sexual, IDU, and social contacts. We tested contacts for HIV and assessed risk behaviors. To determine HIV transmission potential from persons with 2017 diagnoses to persons who inject drugs, we assessed viral suppression status, HIV status of contacts, and IDU risk behaviors of persons living with HIV and contacts.Results: We interviewed 78 persons: 39 with 2017 diagnoses and 39 contacts. Overall, 13/78 (17%) injected drugs in the past year. Of 19 persons with 2017 diagnoses and detectable virus, 9 (47%) had more than or equal to 1 sexual or IDU contacts of negative or unknown HIV status. During the past year, 2/9 had injected drugs and shared equipment, and 1/9 had more than or equal to 1 partner who did so.Conclusions: We identified IDU risk behavior among persons with 2017 diagnoses and their contacts. West Virginia HIV prevention programs should continue to give high priority to IDU harm reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is unclear why HIV prevalence varies by nearly two orders of magnitude between regions within countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In this ecological study, we assess if HIV prevalence by region is associated with any of four markers of higher risk sexual behavior: lifetime number of partners, multiple partners in past year, higher risk sex (defined as sex with non-cohabiting, non-marital partners) and age at debut. Methods: We performed Pearson’s correlation between the 4 behavioral risk factors and HIV prevalence by region in 47 nationally representative surveys from 27 sub-Saharan African countries, separately by gender. In addition, principal components analysis was used to reduce the eight risk factors (four for each gender) to two principal components (PCs). Mixed effects linear regression was used to assess the relationship between the resulting two PCs and HIV prevalence after controlling for the prevalence of male circumcision. Results: HIV prevalence varied by a median 3.7 fold (IQR 2.9-7.9) between regions within countries. HIV prevalence was strongly associated with higher risk sex and, to a lesser extent, the other risk factors evaluated. Both PCs were strongly associated with HIV prevalence when assessed via linear regression. Conclusions: Differences in sexual behavior may underpin the large differences in HIV-prevalence between subpopulation within sub-Saharan African countries.

Tailoring public health responses to growing HIV transmission clusters depends on accurately mapping the risk network through which it spreads and identifying acute infections that represent the leading edge of cluster growth. HIV transmission links, especially those involving persons with acute HIV infection (AHI), can be difficult to uncover, or confirm during partner services investigations. We integrated molecular, epidemiologic, serologic and behavioral data to infer and evaluate transmission linkages between participants of a prospective study of AHI conducted in North Carolina, New York City and San Francisco from 2011−2013. Among the 547 participants with newly diagnosed HIV with polymerase sequences, 465 sex partners were reported, of whom only 35 (7.5%) had HIV sequences. Among these 35 contacts, 23 (65.7%) links were genetically supported and 12 (34.3%) were not. Only five links were reported between participants with AHI but none were genetically supported. In contrast, phylodynamic inference identified 102 unreported transmission links, including 12 between persons with AHI. Importantly, all putative transmission links between persons with AHI were found among large clusters with more than five members. Taken together, the presence of putative links between acute participants who did not name each other as contacts that are found only among large clusters underscores the potential for unobserved or undiagnosed intermediaries. Phylodynamics identified many more links than partner services alone and, if routinely and rapidly integrated, can illuminate transmission patterns not readily captured by partner services investigations.

Prior studies have demonstrated that both bacterial vaginosis (BV) and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are strong independent risk factors for subsequent STI. In observational studies of this biological enhancement (BE) hypothesis, it is important to adjust for the risk of STI exposure so that the independent effect of BE can be assessed. We sought to model if two markers of local sexual network (partner concurrency and cumulative number of STIs) represented residual confounding in the models of risk for subsequent infection in a study that screened 3620 women for STIs every 3 months for a year. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios for an incident diagnosis of Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis and BV following a diagnosis of any of these four at the prior visit, controlling for the cumulative number of STIs and partner concurrency variables. We found that partner concurrency and cumulative number of STIs were each associated with incident infection, and in general, controlling for these variables reduced the strength of the association between prior and incident infections. We conclude that the frequently found association between prior and incident STIs is associated with both BE and sexual network structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Setting: Because data on the determinants of the HIV care continuum from key populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM) in resource-limited settings are limited, the study aimed to characterize HIV care continuum outcomes and assess individual and network barriers to progression through the HIV care continuum among MSM in Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria. Methods: TRUST/RV368 study used respondent-driven sampling to accrue MSM into community-based clinics in Nigeria. Participants received HIV testing at enrollment. HIV-infected participants were offered antiretroviral therapy (ART) with HIV RNA testing every 3 months (Abuja) or 6 months (Lagos). Multiple logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for factors associated with each point in the HIV care continuum, including HIV testing, ART initiation, and 6-month viral suppression. Results: A total of 1506 MSM were recruited, 1178 (78.2%) tested for HIV and 369 (31.3%) were HIV positive newly diagnosed. Of these, 188 (50.1%) initiated ART, 136 (72.3%) completed 6 months, and 96 (70.6%) were virally suppressed. Larger network size and stronger social network support were each positively associated with HIV testing uptake. Factors associated with ART initiation were higher education and stronger social network support. Having stronger social network support was associated with increased odds of viral suppression at 6 months. Conclusions: Social determinants of health potentiated increased HIV care continuum outcomes. Integration of HIV prevention, HIV counseling and testing services, and universal coverage of ART into a community-based clinic is critical in achieving better HIV care continuum outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV prevalence is decreasing in much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the drivers of the decline are subject to much dispute. Using mathematical modeling as a tool for hypothesis generation, we demonstrate how the hypothesis that the drop in prevalence reflects declines in sexual risk behavior is self-consistent. We characterize these potential declines in terms of their scale, duration, and timing, and theorize on how small changes in sexual behavior at the individual-level could have driven large declines in HIV prevalence. Materials and methods: A population-level deterministic compartmental model was constructed to describe the HIV epidemics in 24 countries in SSA with sufficient trend data. The model was parameterized by national HIV prevalence and HIV natural history and transmission data. The temporal evolution of sexual risk behavior was characterized using established tools and uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the results were conducted. Results: Declines in the scale of sexual risk behavior between 31.8% (Botswana) and 89.3% (Liberia) can explain the declining HIV prevalence across countries. The average decline across countries was 68.9%. The transition in sexual risk behavior lasted between 2.7 (Botswana) and 16.6 (Gabon) years with an average of 8.2 years. The turning point year of the transition occurred between 1993 (Burundi) and 2001 (Namibia), but clustered around 1995 for most countries. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses affirmed our model predictions. Conclusion: The hypothesis that HIV prevalence declines in SSA have been driven by declines in sexual risk behavior is self-consistent and provides a convincing narrative for an evolving HIV epidemiology in this region. The hypothesized declines must have been remarkable in their intensity, rapidity, and synchronicity to explain the temporal trends in HIV prevalence. These findings provide contextual support for the hypothesis that changes in sexual behavior that materialized in the 1990s are a dominant driver of the recent decreases in HIV prevalence.

Many studies of sexual selection assume that individuals have equal mating opportunities and that differences in mating success result from variation in sexual traits. However, the inability of sexual traits to explain variation in male mating success suggests that other factors moderate the strength of sexual selection. Extrapair paternity is common in vertebrates and can contribute to variation in mating success and thus serves as a model for understanding the operation of sexual selection. We developed a spatially explicit, multifactor model of all possible female-male pairings to test the hypothesis that ecological (food availability) and social (breeding density, breeding distance, and the social mate's nest stage) factors influence an individual's opportunity for extrapair paternity in a socially monogamous bird, the black-throated blue warbler, Setophaga caerulescens. A male's probability of siring extrapair young decreased with increasing distance to females, breeding density, and food availability. Males on food-poor territories were more likely to sire extrapair young, and these offspring were produced farther from the male's territory relative to males on food-abundant territories. Moreover, males sired extrapair young mostly during their socialmates' incubation stage, especially males on food-abundant territories. This study demonstrates how ecological and social conditions constrain the spatial and temporal opportunities for extrapair paternity that affect variation inmating success and the strength of sexual selection in socially monogamous species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:  Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is effective for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) within trial settings. Population impact will depend on clinical indications for PrEP initiation, coverage levels, and drug adherence. No modeling studies have estimated the impact of clinical practice guidelines for PrEP issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).Methods:  Mathematical models of HIV transmission among MSM were used to estimate the percentage of infections averted (PIA) and the number needed to treat (NNT) under behavioral indications of the CDC's PrEP guidelines. We modeled the contribution of these indications while varying treatment coverage and adherence.Results:  At 40% coverage of indicated MSM over the next decade, application of CDC guidelines would avert 1162 infections per 100 000 person-years, 33.0% of expected infections. The predicted NNT for the guidelines would be 25. Increasing coverage and adherence jointly raise the PIA, but reductions to the NNT were associated with better adherence only.Conclusions:  Implementation of CDC PrEP guidelines would result in strong and sustained reductions in HIV incidence among MSM in the United States. The guidelines strike a good balance between epidemiological impact (PIA) and efficiency (NNT) at plausible scale-up levels. Adherence counseling could maximize public health investment in PrEP by decreasing the NNT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In polygynandrous mating systems, the factors that mediate copulation success and the use of alternative mating tactics, such as mate guarding, are still poorly understood. In the rock hyrax ( Procavia capensis), both sexes mate annually with multiple partners during a single month. In order to examine the factors that drive copulation success, we used 494 mating-related observations that were collected over a decade. In our analysis, we used the traits of individual hyraxes as well as the traits of members of their sexual niche, which we defined as their local competitors and potential mates. Using individual traits, we found that overall, female hyraxes rejected copulation attempts more frequently than males, supporting predictions from sexual selection theory. Females who had been mothers in previous years were mate-guarded more by resident males. When we considered the traits of competitors and potential mates in individuals' sexual niche, we found that when resident males had higher-ranking competitors, their copulation success decreased, irrespective of their own traits. Bachelor male copulation success was not influenced by their competitor's social status. Female copulation success was positively affected by maternal status and by social network position. Females that were central in the social network and those that had central female competitors had higher copulation success, supporting the benefits of social cohesion and the importance of the social niche. Thus, our results suggest that in polygynandrous mating systems, copulation success is determined not only by individual quality but also by the social and sexual niches that the individual occupies. Significance statement: Social networks describe with whom individuals consort. The complex patterns of sexual relationships in animal societies can also be expressed as networks of mating-related interactions. During our long-term study on the dynamic social relationships of wild rock hyraxes, we observed complex sexual interactions. Our results show that hyraxes choose mating partners from their available mate pool (or sexual niche) taking into account the traits of their actual mates, other potential mates, and those of their competitors. These findings suggest that the sexual niche, describing the subset of available mating partners, is important for mate choice, with significant implications to the study of sexual selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]