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In this paper, we estimate the effects of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Germany in 2020 at the sectoral and national level. Counterfactual emissions are estimated based on autoregressive econometric models and distinguish between different factors of emissions based on decomposition analysis. Our findings at the national level suggest that COVID-19 lowered GHG emissions in 2020 in Germany by about 45 Mt CO2-eq (6.1%). Accordingly, about two-thirds of the reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2020 in Germany may be attributed to COVID-19. Our findings at the sectoral level imply that all sectors, with the exception of the transport sector, would have met their emissions target in 2020 without COVID-19. Thus, for the buildings sector and the transport sector, our results suggest policy responses that differ from those pursued by the German government to comply with the provisions of the Federal Climate Change Act.

With an increasing share of renewable energy technologies in our energy systems, the integration of not only direct emission (from the use phase), but also the total life cycle emissions (including emissions during resource extraction, production, etc.) becomes more important in order to draw meaningful conclusions from Energy Systems Analysis (ESA). While the benefit of integrating Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) into ESA is acknowledged, methodologically sound integration lacks resonance in practice, partly because the dimension of the implications is not yet fully understood. This study proposes an easy-to-implement procedure for the integration of LCA results in ESA based on existing theoretical approaches. The need for a methodologically sound integration, including the avoidance of double counting of emissions, is demonstrated on the use case of Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell photovoltaic technology. The difference in Global Warming Potential of 19% between direct and LCA based emissions shows the significance for the integration of the total emissions into energy systems analysis and the potential double counting of 75% of the life cycle emissions for the use case supports the need for avoidance of double counting.