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The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31 mW m−2) compared to SHIP (24 mW m−2) and AIR (17 mW m−2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13) (one standard deviation) mW m−2) and AIR (+6(±5) mW m−2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (−18(±10) mW m−2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOxemissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes [...]

The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W [m.sup.-2] which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W [m.sup.-2] owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions of various greenhouse gases but excludes short-lived species and their precursors even though they cause a significant climate forcing. We explore the difficulties that are faced when designing metrics to compare the climate impact of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (N[O.sub.x]) with other emissions. There are two dimensions to this difficulty. The first concerns the definition of a metric that satisfactorily accounts for its climate impact. N[O.sub.x] emissions increase tropospheric ozone, but this increase and the resulting climate forcing depend strongly on the location of the emissions, with low-latitude emissions having a larger impact. N[O.sub.x] emissions also decrease methane concentrations, causing a global-mean radiative forcing similar in size but opposite in sign to the ozone forcing. The second dimension of difficulty concerns the intermodel differences in the values of computed metrics. We explore the use of indicators that could lead to metrics that, instead of using global-mean inputs, are computed locally and then averaged globally. These local metrics may depend less on cancellation in the global mean; the possibilities presented here seem more robust to model uncertainty, although their applicability depends on the poorly known relationship between local climate change and its societal/ecological impact. If it becomes a political imperative to include N[O.sub.x] emissions in future climate agreements, policy makers will be faced with difficult choices in selecting an appropriate metric. climate change | climate metrics | Kyoto Protocol

W. T. Sturges and colleagues report on the identification of [SF.sub.5][CF.sub.3] in the atmosphere and point out that this compound could be an important greenhouse gas (Reports, 'A potent greenhouse [...]

Explores the sensitivity of a simple climate model to perturbations in water vapor at various altitudes. Uses radiative transfer calculations; Results; Discussion.

Abstract: We evaluate the response to regional and latitudinal changes in aircraft NO x emissions using several climate metrics (radiative forcing (RF), Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP)). Global chemistry transport model integrations were performed with sustained perturbations in regional aircraft and aircraft-like NO x emissions. The RF due to the resulting ozone and methane changes is then calculated. We investigate the impact of emission changes for specific geographical regions (approximating to USA, Europe, India and China) and cruise altitude emission changes in discrete latitude bands covering both hemispheres. We find that lower latitude emission changes (per Tg N) cause ozone and methane RFs that are about a factor of 6 larger than those from higher latitude emission changes. The net RF is positive for all experiments. The meridional extent of the RF is larger for low latitude emissions. GWPs for all emission changes are positive, with tropical emissions having the largest values; the sign of the GTP depends on the choice of time horizon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We report on the consistency of water vapour line intensities in selected spectral regions between 800–12,000cm−1 under atmospheric conditions using sun-pointing Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Measurements were made across a number of days at both a low and high altitude field site, sampling a relatively moist and relatively dry atmosphere. Our data suggests that across most of the 800–12,000cm−1 spectral region water vapour line intensities in recent spectral line databases are generally consistent with what was observed. However, we find that HITRAN-2008 water vapour line intensities are systematically lower by up to 20% in the 8000–9200cm−1 spectral interval relative to other spectral regions. This discrepancy is essentially removed when two new linelists (UCL08, a compilation of linelists and ab-initio calculations, and one based on recent laboratory measurements by Oudot et al. (2010) in the 8000–9200cm−1 spectral region) are used. This strongly suggests that the H2O line strengths in the HITRAN-2008 database are indeed underestimated in this spectral region and in need of revision. The calculated global-mean clear-sky absorption of solar radiation is increased by about 0.3Wm−2 when using either the UCL08 or Oudot line parameters in the 8000–9200cm−1 region, instead of HITRAN-2008. We also found that the effect of isotopic fractionation of HDO is evident in the 2500–2900cm−1 region in the observations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]