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Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies in multiple active tectonic settings, including central Greece, southern California and central Italy. However, the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified and hence not well understood. We combine surface dating of active normal fault scarps in central Italy with stress modelling and quartz flow laws, to produce a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering.We study six active normal faults (including the Mt Vettore fault which ruptured during the 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence) using 36Cl cosmogenic dating. This reveals periods of high and low slip rate, which we interpret to be earthquake clusters/anti-clusters. Interestingly, these changes in slip rate (or clustering) are out-of-phase between neighbouring faults, i.e. when one fault slows down, nearby faults speed up at the same time. To explore the underlying processes driving this out-of-phase clustering behaviour, we link stress transfer caused by slip over clusters/anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures with viscous quartz flow laws derived from laboratory experiments.We show that differential stress fluctuates due to fault/shear-zone interactions, and that the magnitude of these fluctuations are sufficient to induce changes in strain-rate and associated slip-rate on neighbouring faults and shear zones. Our results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible and quantifiable explanation for earthquake clustering, thus opening possibilities for process-led and time-dependent seismic hazard assessments.

To understand earthquake interaction and forecast time-dependent seismic hazard, it is essential to determine which static or dynamic stress change due to a mainshock plays a major role in triggering its aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. Using small mainshocks (2≤M

The Mw7.0 2016 Kumamoto earthquake occurred on the previously mapped Futagawa–Hinagu fault causing significant strong ground motions. A ~ 30-km-long dextral surface rupture appeared on the major fault zone and dextral slip was up to 2–3 m. However, the surface ruptures were also broadly and remotely distributed approximately 10 km away from the primary rupture zone. These numerous distributed secondary surface slips with vertical displacement of less than a few tens of centimeters were detected by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology in previous studies. Such displacements occurred not only on previously mapped faults but also on unknown traces. Here, we addressed the following fundamental issues: whether the broadly distributed faults were involved in the past major earthquakes in the neighborhood, and how the fault topography of such secondary faults develops, seismically or aseismically. To find clues for understanding these issues, we show the results of field measurements of surface slips and paleoseismic trenching on distributed secondary faults called the Miyaji faults inside the Aso caldera, 10 km away from the eastern end of the primary rupture zone. Field observations revealed small but well-defined dextral slip surface ruptures that were consistent with vertical and dextral offsets derived from InSAR. On the trench walls, the penultimate event with vertical displacements almost similar to the 2016 event was identified. The timing of the penultimate event was around 2 ka, which was consistent with that of the primary fault and archeological information of the caldera. Considering the paleo-slip event and fault models of the Miyaji faults, they were presumed not to be source faults, and slip on these faults have been triggered by large earthquakes along major adjacent active faults. The results provide important insights into the seismic hazard assessment of low-slip-rate active faults and fault topography development due to triggered displacement along secondary faults.

SummaryThis study investigates various types of seismicity changes that occurred in several regions in and around the Tohoku District, prior to the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku–Oki earthquake. In particular, we focus on the seismicity anomalies that were revealed not only in inland local areas but also in a wide area for several years before the 2008 M7.2 earthquake in the inland Tohoku District. We reconsider these seismicity anomalies in nearly identical regions, which persisted in the extended period up until the M9 mega event. This suggests that the stress changes due to transient slow slips on the Pacific Plate boundary are more likely to be the cause of the wider seismicity changes than the slips beneath the inland earthquake. To confirm the significance, we use the two-stage stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence model and explore the relationship between seismicity changes and stress rate changes due to slow slip by means of global navigation satellite system geodetic observations.

We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability.

Here we investigate the influence of the lithology and thermal state of the upper crust on earthquake distributions beneath the Wakayama region, southern Honshu, Japan, to better understand the influence of crustal conditions on regional seismogenesis. The earthquakes are concentrated in the deeper sections of mafic belts and shallower sections of pelitic belts, based on a comparison of relocated hypocenters and estimated subsurface geological structures. We compare the frictional properties of pelitic rocks and basalt, as obtained from petrological experiments, with the hypocenter depth distributions in pelitic and mafic belts to assess the control of crustal lithology on the depth extent of regional seismicity. The earthquake distributions are consistent with the temperature ranges over which the respective rock types are expected to exhibit a velocity-weakening behavior, based on the petrological experiments. The results suggest that the occurrence of shallow intraplate earthquakes is controlled by the temperature- and lithology-dependent friction of the upper crust.

Crustal movements on a millennial timescale (103–104 years) are important data for assessing the deformation of subduction zones during megathrust earthquake cycles. Such data did not exist until recently for the Sanriku coast, near the source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Since the 2011 earthquake, studies of Holocene sedimentary successions have documented subsidence on the central to southern segment of the Sanriku coast on a millennial timescale, but comparable data are lacking for the northern Sanriku coast. This study derived millennial-scale crustal movements from a well-dated Holocene sedimentary succession in the Omoto plain on the northern Sanriku coast. Sedimentary and fossil evidence record the following sequence of environmental changes influenced by sea-level changes: upward growth and landward progradation of a barrier and flood tidal delta from 10,000–9000 cal BP, an estuarine environment from 9000 to 8000 cal BP after growth and progradation of the barrier and flood tidal delta ceased, and a regressive delta and subsequent fluvial environment after 8000 cal BP. Thick deposit of delta to floodplain sediment since mid-Holocene is not apparent in the Omoto plain, whereas this feature typical of subsidence area is documented along the central Sanriku coast. Although the absolute direction of the vertical deformation trend could not be well constrained in the study area because of compaction effects, the evidence indicates that subsidence during the mid and late Holocene was either absent or not noticeable on the Omoto plain. This difference in deformation histories corresponds to a contrast in coseismic subsidence during the 2011 earthquake between the northern Sanriku coast (small subsidence) and the central to southern Sanriku coast (large subsidence). The results of this study suggest that the northern and central to southern parts of the Sanriku coast should be considered separately when assessing regional crustal deformation related to subduction.

Examining the regularity between events during an earthquake slip leads to an understanding of earthquake recurrence and provides the basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Generally, scientists use systematic analysis of three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches and numerous offset markers along fault zones to study slip history. Flights of displaced terraces have also been used, under the assumption that the number of earthquakes contributing to the observed cumulative slip is known. This study presents a Monte Carlo-based approach to estimating slip variability from a series of displaced terraces when such an assumption cannot be satisfied. First, we mapped fluvial terraces across the Kamishiro Fault, which is an intra-plate reverse fault in central Japan, and systematically measured the cumulative net slip in the mapped terraces. By combining these measurements with the age of the paleoearthquakes, we estimated the amount of net slip for the penultimate event (PE) and antepenultimate event (APE) to be 1.5 ± 0.2 and 2.7 ± 0.4 m, respectively. The APE slip was twice that of the PE slip and 2.5 times larger than the most recent event, the Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake, and measured 1.2 ± 0.1 m. This suggests that the APE ruptured along the entire length of the 26 km-long Kamishiro Fault or that there were multiple faults involving adjacent segments. As we are unsure how many earthquakes had occurred since the oldest terrace was formed, we assumed three cases based on available paleoseismic records. In each case, we calculated the slip that could reproduce the cumulative slips within a reasonable range of observed terrace offsets and then estimated the coefficient of variation for coseismic slips (COVs) of paleoearthquakes. The resulting COVs typically fell into the range of 0.3 to 0.5, indicating that, over the last few thousand years, the Kamishiro Fault did not regularly behave as it had done before the 2014 event. Instead, there were large variations in the fault’s coseismic slip, as suggested by the global dataset. Although we acknowledge that our approach may be oversimplified, the Monte Carlo-based approach should help assess the regularity of earthquakes from displaced terraces where limited data are available.

Coulomb stress accumulation and releasing history and its relationship with the occurrence of strong historical earthquakes could deepen our understanding of the occurrence pattern of strong earthquakes and hence its seismic potential in future. The sinistral strike-slip Xianshuihe- Xiaojiang fault zone (XXFS) is one of the most dangerous fault zones in China, extending 1 500-km-long from the central Tibetan Plateau to the Red River fault zone. There are 35 M≥6.5 historical earthquakes occurred since 1327, hence it is an ideal site for studying the Coulomb stress evolution history and its relationship with the occurrences of strong earthquakes. In this study, we evaluated the Coulomb stress change history along the XXFS by synthesizing fault geometry, GPS data and historical earthquakes. Coulomb stress change history also revealed different patterns of historical earthquakes on different segments of the XXFS, such as characteristic recurrence intervals along the Salaha-Moxi fault and super-cycles along the Xianshuihe fault. Based on the occurrence pattern of past historical earthquakes and current Coulomb stress field obtained in this study, we suggest positive ΔCFS and hence high seismic potential along the Salaha-Moxi fault and the Anninghe fault.

The aim of this study is to establish a detailed and complete inventory of the landslides triggered by the Mj 7.3 (Mw 7.0) Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence of 15 April 2016 (16 April in JST). Based on high-resolution (0.5–2 m) optical satellite images, we delineated 3,467 individual landslides triggered by the earthquake, occupying an area of about 6.9 km2. Then they were validated by aerial photographs with very high-resolution (better than 0.5 m) and oblique field photos. Of them, 3,460 landslides are distributed in an elliptical area about 6000 km2, with a NE-SW directed 120-km-long long axis and a 60-km-long NW-SE trending short axis. Most of the landslides are shallow, disrupted falls and slides, with a few flow-type slides and rock and soil avalanches. The analysis of correlation between the landslides and several control factors shows the areas of elevation 1000–1200 m, stratum of Q3-Hvf, seismic intensity VIII and VIII+, and peak ground acceleration (PGA) 0.4–0.6 g register the highest landslide abundance. This study also discussed the relationship between the spatial pattern of the landslides and the seismotectonic structure featured by a strike-slip fault with a normal component and the volcanism in the study area.

Given the recent historical disastrous tsunamis and the knowledge that the Arabian Gulf (AG) is tectonically active, this study aimed to evaluate tsunami hazards in Kuwait from both submarine earthquakes and subaerial landslides. Despite the low or unknown tsunami risks that impose potential threats to the coastal area’s infrastructures and population of Kuwait, such an investigation is important to sustain the economy and safety of life. This study focused on tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with earthquake magnitudes (M w ) of 8.3–9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and subaerial landslides with volumes of 0.75–2.0 km3 from six sources along the Iranian coast inside the AG and one source at the Gulf entrance in Oman. The level of tsunami hazards associated with these tsunamigenic sources was evaluated using numerical modeling. Tsunami model was applied to conduct a numerical tsunami simulation and predict tsunami propagation. For landslide sources, a two-layer model was proposed to solve nonlinear longwave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions. Threat level maps along the coasts of the AG and Kuwait were developed to illustrate the impacts of potential tsunamis triggered by submarine earthquakes of different scales and subaerial landslides at different sources. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data and others were used as bathymetry and topography data for numerical modeling. Earthquakes of M w 8.3 and M w 8.6 along the MSZ had low and considerable impacts, respectively, at the Gulf entrance, but negligible impacts on Kuwait. An earthquake of M w 9.0 had a remarkable impact for the entire Gulf region and generated a maximum tsunami amplitude of up to 0.5 m along the Kuwaiti coastline 12 h after the earthquake. In the case of landslides inside the AG, the majority impact occurred locally near the sources. The landslide source opposite to Kuwait Bay generated the maximum tsunami amplitudes reaching 0.3 m inside Kuwait Bay and 1.8 m along the southern coasts of Kuwait.

Along the Sanriku coast, northeast Japan, discrepancies in crustal movement have been reported between uplift on a scale of 105 years versus subsidence on a scale of 101–102 years. Well-dated Holocene incised-valley-fill sediments provide records of millennial-scale vertical crustal movement, which is key to understanding the tectonic history in this area. Previous studies of the age and distribution of early Holocene intertidal deposits in incised valleys reported that the southern Sanriku coast has subsided during the Holocene at an average rate of about 1 mm/yr. Here we studied three sediment cores, TGI1, TGI2, and TGI3, collected from the Tsugaruishi plain on the central Sanriku coast, and recognized a Holocene deltaic sediment succession in all three cores. In core TGI3, from the farthest inland site, the intertidal sediment facies, deposited from 7500 to 7000 cal BP, and the overlying 6-m-thick floodplain facies, deposited from 7000 to 5000 cal BP, are both below the present sea level. Because a sea-level highstand due to hydroisostatic uplift around Japan occurred in the mid-Holocene, we inferred that the Tsugaruishi plain subsided during the Holocene, and the estimated subsidence rate, 1.1–1.9 mm/yr at maximum, is consistent with the recently reported subsidence rate along the southern Sanriku coast. The results of this study confirm that the central to southern Sanriku coast is subsiding, in contrast to an interpretation based on the study of marine terraces that this part of the coast is uplifting. The empirical data presented here will be useful for constructing an earthquake cycle model related to plate subduction.

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is, Scattered earthquake locations in the same region cannot be explained solely by coseismic Coulomb stress on planar faults. Instead, the authors suggest Coulomb pre-stress to influence earthquake locations. Pre-stress was modelled on strike-variable faults and consists of coseismic and interseismic Coulomb stress.