Search

Outdoor webcam images are an information-dense yet accessible visualization of past and present weather conditions, and are consulted by meteorologists and the general public alike. Weather forecasts, however, are still communicated as text, pictograms or charts. We therefore introduce a novel method that uses photographic images to also visualize future weather conditions. This is challenging, because photographic visualizations of weather forecasts should look real, be free of obvious artifacts, and should match the predicted weather conditions. The transition from observation to forecast should be seamless, and there should be visual continuity between images for consecutive lead times. We use conditional Generative Adversarial Networks to synthesize such visualizations. The generator network, conditioned on the analysis and the forecasting state of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, transforms the present camera image into the future. The discriminator network judges whether a given image is the real image of the future, or whether it has been synthesized. Training the two networks against each other results in a visualization method that scores well on all four evaluation criteria. We present results for three camera sites across Switzerland that differ in climatology and terrain. We show that users find it challenging to distinguish real from generated images, performing not much better than if they guessed randomly. The generated images match the atmospheric, ground and illumination conditions of the COSMO-1 NWP model forecast in at least 89 % of the examined cases. Nowcasting sequences of generated images achieve a seamless transition from observation to forecast and attain visual continuity.

Sparse coding in learned dictionaries has been established as a successful approach for signal denoising, source separation and solving inverse problems in general. A dictionary learning method adapts an initial dictionary to a particular signal class by iteratively computing an approximate factorization of a training data matrix into a dictionary and a sparse coding matrix. The learned dictionary is characterized by two properties: the coherence of the dictionary to observations of the signal class, and the self-coherence of the dictionary atoms. A high coherence to the signal class enables the sparse coding of signal observations with a small approximation error, while a low self-coherence of the atoms guarantees atom recovery and a more rapid residual error decay rate for the sparse coding algorithm. The two goals of high signal coherence and low self-coherence are typically in conflict, therefore one seeks a trade-off between them, depending on the application. We present a dictionary learning method with an effective control over the self-coherence of the trained dictionary, enabling a trade-off between maximizing the sparsity of codings and approximating an equiangular tight frame., Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures; IEEE Signal Processing Letters, vol. 19, no. 12, 2012