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In the United States, a public-health crisis of opioid overuse has been observed, and in Europe, prescriptions of opioids are strongly increasing over time. The objective was to develop and validate a multivariable prognostic model to be used at the beginning of an opioid prescription episode, aiming to identify individual patients at high risk for long-term opioid use based on routinely collected data. Predictors including demographics, comorbid diseases, comedication, morphine dose at episode initiation, and prescription practice were collected. The primary outcome was long-term opioid use, defined as opioid use of either >90 days duration and ≥10 claims or >120 days, independent of the number of claims. Traditional generalized linear statistical regression models and machine learning approaches were applied. The area under the curve, calibration plots, and the scaled Brier score assessed model performance. More than four hundred thousand opioid episodes were included. The final risk prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.927 (95% confidence interval 0.924-0.931) in the validation set, and this model had a scaled Brier score of 48.5%. Using a threshold of 10% predicted probability to identify patients at high risk, the overall accuracy of this risk prediction model was 81.6% (95% confidence interval 81.2% to 82.0%). Our study demonstrated that long-term opioid use can be predicted at the initiation of an opioid prescription episode, with satisfactory accuracy using data routinely collected at a large health insurance company. Traditional statistical methods resulted in higher discriminative ability and similarly good calibration as compared with machine learning approaches.

Objectives: To provide a thorough assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of inpatient and outpatient mental healthcare in Switzerland. Methods: Retrospective cohort study using nationwide hospital data (n > 8 million) and claims data from a large Swiss health insurer (n > 1 million) in 2018–2020. Incidence proportions of different types of psychiatric inpatient admissions, psychiatric consultations, and psychotropic medication claims were analyzed using interrupted time series models for the general population and for the vulnerable subgroup of young people. Results: Inpatient psychiatric admissions in the general population decreased by 16.2% (95% confidence interval: −19.2% to −13.2%) during the first and by 3.9% (−6.7% to −0.2%) during the second pandemic shutdown, whereas outpatient mental healthcare utilization was not substantially affected. We observed distinct patterns for young people, most strikingly, an increase in mental healthcare utilization among females aged <20 years. Conclusion: Mental healthcare provision for the majority of the population was largely maintained, but special attention should be paid to young people. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring mental healthcare utilization among different populations.

OBJECTIVE To analyse utilisation patterns of lipid-lowering drugs and the related costs in Switzerland between the years 2013 and 2019. METHODS We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using administrative claims data of persons aged ≥18 years enrolled with the health insurance company Helsana. To enable statements at the Swiss population level, results were extrapolated according to age, sex and canton of residence. RESULTS The overall prevalence of patients taking lipid-lowering drugs rose from 8.9% (n = 736,174) in 2013 to 11.6% (n = 841,682) in 2019, but varied markedly across regions, with highest values in Ticino and lowest values in Zurich. More than every third individual aged ≥65 years was treated with a lipid-lowering drug in 2019. Statins were by far the most commonly used drugs (>90% of prescriptions), followed by ezetimibe, fibrates and PCSK9 inhibitors. We observed a trend towards the prescription of more potent statins (atorvastatin, rosuvastatin) in recent years. Total costs of lipid-lowering drugs increased from CHF 222 million in 2013 to CHF 230 million in 2019 (+3.5%), whereas annual per capita costs decreased from CHF 302 in 2013 to CHF 273 in 2019 (-9.4%). CONCLUSION The increasing use of lipid-lowering drugs reflects current therapeutic guidelines, but results in high costs for the healthcare system.

Background: Chronic and high dose opioid use may result in adverse events. We analyzed the risk associated with chronic and high dose opioid prescription in a Swiss population. Methods: Using insurance claims data covering one-sixth of the Swiss population, we analyzed recurrent opioid prescriptions (≥2 opioid claims with at least 1 strong opioid claim) between 2006 and 2014. We calculated the cumulative dose in milligrams morphine equivalents (MED) and treatment duration. Excluded were single opioid claims, opioid use that was cancer treatment related, and opioid use in substitution programs. We assessed the association between the duration of opioid use, prescribed opioid dose, and benzodiazepine use with emergency department (ED) visits, urogenital and pulmonary infections, acute care hospitalization, and death at the end of the episode. Results: In 63,642 recurrent opioid prescription episodes (acute 38%, subacute 7%, chronic 25.8%, very chronic (>360 days) episodes 29%) 18,336 ED visits, 30,209 infections, 19,375 hospitalizations, and 9,662 deaths occurred. The maximum daily MED dose was <20 mg in 15.8%, 20-<50 mg in 16.6%, 50-<100 mg in 21.6%, and ≥100 mg in 46%. Compared to acute episodes (<90 days), episode duration was an independent predictor of ED visits (chronic OR 1.09 (95% CI 1.03-1.15), very chronic (>360 days) OR 1.76 (1.67-1.86)) for adverse effects; infections (chronic OR 1.74 (1.66-1.82), very chronic 4.16 (3.95-4.37)), and hospitalization (chronic: OR 1.22 (1.16-1.29), very chronic OR 1.82 (1.73-1.93)). The risk of death decreased over time (very chronic OR 0.46 (0.43-0.50)). A dose dependent increased risk was observed for ED visits, hospitalization, and death (≥100mg daily MED OR 1.21 (1.13-1.29), OR 1.29 (1.21-1.38), and OR 1.67, 1.50-1.85, respectively). A concomitant use of benzodiazepines increased the odds for ED visits by 46% (OR 1.46, 1.41-1.52), infections by 44% (OR 1.44, 1.41-1.52), hospitalization by 12% (OR 1.12, 1.07-1.1), and deat

Background: Perinatal mental disorders (PMDs) are the most common complication of pregnancy and the first postpartum year. Since PMD prevalence and use of mental-health services by perinatal women in Switzerland are unknown, we analysed existing health statistics. Methods: We used statistics from a large health insurance company, hospitals and freelance midwives. We assessed the annual rates of mental healthcare use in perinatal women (n = 13 969). We ascertained the annual rates of PMD treatment in obstetric inpatients (n = 89 699), and annual rates of PMD records by freelance midwives (n = 57 951). In 15 104 women who gave birth in 2012 or 2013, we assessed use of mental-healthcare before and during pregnancy, and in the postpartum year. For the same sample, we determined proportions of medication and consultation treatments. We used multiple regression analysis to estimate the influence of PMD on overall healthcare costs of mandatory health insurance. Results: The annual rate of mental-healthcare use by perinatal women was 16.7%. The annual rate of PMD treatment in obstetric inpatients was 1.1%. The annual rate of PMD records in the midwifery care setting was 2.9%. Women with PMD use mental health services mainly in non-obstetric outpatient settings. Medication was the most frequent treatment. Primary care providers and mental health specialists contributed almost equally to consultation treatments. PMD during pregnancy raised overall costs of healthcare in the postpartum year by 1214 Swiss francs. Conclusions: Health-system research and perinatal healthcare should take into consideration the high prevalence of PMD. Real PMD prevalence may be even higher than our data suggest and could be assessed with a survey using our model of PMD prevalence.

BACKGROUND To date, comprehensive data on drug utilisation in Swiss nursing homes are lacking. OBJECTIVE To describe drug prescription patterns, polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in Swiss nursing home residents (NHR). METHODS Using administrative claims data provided by the Swiss health insurance company Helsana, we assessed drug claims and drug costs in 2016 in individuals aged ≥65 years and insured with Helsana, who were either NHR or living in the community (reference group, RG). In particular, we analysed the prevalence of polypharmacy (≥5 claims for different drugs during a 3-month period) and PIM use according to the 2015 Beers criteria and the PRISCUS list. We standardised the results to the Swiss population. RESULTS In 2016, NHR had on average nearly twice as many drug claims per capita as individuals in the RG (NHR 58.8; RG 30.8). The average per capita drug costs per day for NHR were low, but higher than in the RG (NHR CHF 8.55; RG CHF 5.45). The same pattern applied to the prevalence of polypharmacy (NHR 85.5%; RG 50.4%). Standardisation by age and sex did not materially alter these observations. Overall, 79.1% of NHR received ≥1 PIM, and 56.2% were long-term users (≥3 claims) of at least one PIM (based on the combined PRISCUS list and Beers criteria). Among all PIMs in nursing homes, quetiapine (antipsychotic agent), lorazepam (anxiolytic agent) and zolpidem (hypnotic agent) were the most prevalent (22.4, 20.2 and 13.0%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS The high prevalence of polypharmacy and PIM in Swiss nursing homes may indicate a need for interventions aiming at de-prescribing drugs with an unfavourable benefit-risk profile.

OBJECTIVE Guidelines recommend non-invasive ischaemia testing (NIIT) for the majority of patients with suspected ischaemic heart disease in a non-emergency setting. A substantial number of these patients undergo diagnostic coronary angiography (CA) without therapeutic intervention inappropriately due to lacking preceding NIIT. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of voluntary healthcare models with limited access on the proportion of patients without NIIT prior to elective purely diagnostic CA. DESIGN Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of insurance claims data from 2012 to 2015. Data included claims of basic and voluntary healthcare models from approximately 1.2 million patients enrolled with the Helsana Insurance Group. Voluntary healthcare models with limited health access are divided into gate keeping (GK) and managed care (MC) capitation models. INCLUSION CRITERIA patients undergoing CA. EXCLUSION CRITERIA Patients<18 years, incomplete health insurance data coverage, acute cardiac ischaemia and emergency procedures, therapeutic CA (coronary angioplasty/stenting or coronary artery bypass grafting). The effect of voluntary healthcare models on the proportion of NIIT undertaken within 2 months before diagnostic CA was assessed by means of multiple logistic regression analysis, controlled for influencing factors. RESULTS 9173 patients matched inclusion criteria. 33.2% (3044) did not receive NIIT before CA. Compared with basic healthcare models, MC was independently associated with a higher proportion of NIIT (p<0.001, OR 1.17, CI 1.045 to 1.312), when additionally controlled for demographics, insurance coverage, inpatient treatment, cardiovascular medication, chronic comorbidities, high-risk status (patients with therapeutic cardiac intervention 1 month after or 18 months prior to diagnostic CA). GK models showed no significant association with the rate of NIIT (p=0.07, OR 1.11, CI 0.991 to 1.253). CONCLUSIONS In a non-GK healthcare system, voluntary

Eva Blozik,1–3 Andri Signorell,1 Oliver Reich1 1Department of Health Sciences, Helsana Group, Zürich, Switzerland; 2Department of Primary Medical Care, University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, 3Department of Medicine, University Medical Centre Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany Introduction: Transitions between different levels of health care, such as hospital admission and discharge, pose a significant threat to the quality and continuity of medication therapy. This study aims to explore the role of hospitalization on medication changes as patients are transferred from and back to ambulatory care.Methods: Secondary analysis of claims data from Swiss residents with basic health insurance at the Helsana Group was performed. We evaluated medication invoices of patients who were hospitalized in a Swiss private hospital group in the year 2013. Medication changes were defined as discontinuation, new prescription, or change in the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification System level 4, which is equivalent to a change in the chemical/therapeutic/pharmacological subgroup. Multiple Poisson regression analysis was applied to evaluate whether medication change was predicted by socioeconomic or clinical patient characteristics or by a system factor (physician dispensing of medication allowed in canton of residence).Results: We investigated a total of 10,123 hospitalized patients, among whom a mean number of 3.85 (median 3.00) changes were identified. Change most frequently affected antihypertensives, analgesics, and antirheumatics. If patients were enrolled in a managed care plan, they were less likely to undergo changes. If a patient resided in a canton, in which physicians were allowed to dispense medication directly, the patient was more likely to experience change.Conclusion: There is considerable change in medication when patients shift between ambulatory and inpatient health care levels. This interruption of medication con

BACKGROUND: Adequate application of guidelines concerning non-invasive ischemia testing (NIIT) could avoid inappropriate invasive testing in non-emergency situations. Hardly any data exists regarding frequency and appropriateness of diagnostic coronary angiography (CA). The aim of this study was to evaluate the proportion and predictors of patients without NIIT prior to elective purely diagnostic CA without therapeutic intervention. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of insurance claims data from 2012 and 2013. Patients <18 years, acute cardiac ischemia and emergency procedures and patients insured in a managed care model were excluded from analysis. The proportion of patients with NIIT procedures (stress-ECG, transthoracic echocardiography, stress echocardiography, scintigraphy, computer tomography, heart MRI) undertaken within two months before diagnostic CA was assessed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to investigate independent determinants for receiving NIIT. FINDINGS: 2714 patients were included for analysis. 37.5% (1018) did not receive any NIIT before CA. When high risk patients (patients having received therapeutic cardiac intervention within one month after or 18 months prior to diagnostic CA, n = 766) were excluded 34.3% (669) did not receive NIIT before CA. High risk status as well as >6 chronic comorbidities were independently associated with a lower proportion of NIIT (p<0.0001, OR 0.607 and p = 0.0041, OR 0.648), when additionally controlled for age, sex, language area, insurance coverage, inpatient treatment, cardiovascular medication and lower number of chronic comorbidities. Age (p<0.05, OR 1.009) and intake of oral antiplatelet therapy (p<0.0001, OR 1.914) were independently associated with a higher proportion of NIIT when controlled for the mentioned cofactors. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that despite the existence of guidelines a substantial overuse of a potentially harmful and inappropriate diagnostic intervention