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A case study evaluating the predictive capability of an upper layer circulation model of the northwest Indian Ocean is presented. The ocean model is a nonlinear, reduced gravity model incorporating realistic boundary geometry and is forced by actual wind observations. Model results for the fall of 1985 are compared to, and evaluated against, U S Navy bathythermograph and NOAA satellite data collected during Aug-Nov 1985. An assessment of the model's ability to predict correctly the circulation structure is made. Wind observations were converted to wind stress for model forcing by a procedure developed by Leglar and Navon (1987). While the model is only moderately successful in reproducing the structure of the large, rather homogeneous pool of water located off the Arabian Peninsula in September, it behaves remarkably well in the dynamically active region around Socotra. Major oceanographic fronts and eddies frequently observed in the region during the transition period between the southwest and the northwest monsoon appear in the 1985 model results and compare well, both temporally and spacially, with the observational data. Thus, given accurate wind information, the model appears highly effective in dynamically active regions, and demonstrates potential as a useful prognostic tool for evaluation of the Arabian Sea when real time winds become available.Keywords: Air sea interactions., Original contains color plates: All DTIC and NTIS reproductions will be in black and white.