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Offshore wind infrastructure modifies benthic habitats, affecting ecosystem services. A natural capital approach allows risks to nature-based assets and ecosystem benefits to be assessed. The UK Natural Capital Committee produced guidance for conducting natural capital assessments to aid decision making processes. Development of an asset register and risk register are key components of this methodology. The former provides an inventory of NC stocks, and the latter considers the likelihood of changes and the scale of their impact on delivery of ecosystem services. In this study, suitability of the methodology in a marine environment context was critically evaluated. Natural capital stocks before and after installation of Greater Gabbard offshore wind farm were compared and risks to delivery of ecosystem services were assessed. It was demonstrated that incorporating an assessment of impacts on natural capital assets in planning and management decisions (as an extension to traditional environmental impact assessment approaches) could further facilitate sustainable use of marine ecosystems. For example, by preventing access to bottom-trawl fisheries activities, wind farms may promote recovery and increase value of seabed natural capital assets. By also introducing aquaculture systems loss of food provision (from reduced fishing activity) could be offset whilst allowing benthic natural capital assets to recover. Natural capital assessment is relevant to the marine context. However, application of the Natural Capital Committee’s methodology was constrained by the limited coverage of standard benthic sampling tools. Given the scale of wind energy plans across the marine environment it is recommended that these shortcomings are appropriately addressed.

Despite the impact of decision-making in the design of buildings and places, there is limited understanding concerning how decisions are best made, or how these should be evaluated and optimised. Additionally, technological advancements have increased human-to-machine interactions, altering existing decision-making processes. By understanding how novel technologies affect decisions, it motivates the development of the process, tools, and metrics. The aim of this paper is to investigate, quantify, and rank the relative importance of the decision-making factors contributing to the design of building and urban projects. A survey was conducted to gain an insight of stakeholders’ perceptions as to which are the influencing factors affecting decision-making processes in the design of buildings and places. Ten distinct factors were generated , of which, four were ranked as highly important for all stakeholder types, namely: Potential for Dynamic Operation, Thoroughness, Recency of Tools and Control. This study provides a new means to evaluate performance of decision-making processes, when these are undertaken, by developing and applying a quantitative data-driven, evidence-based methodological framework. The recipients of the findings will be the urban planners, designers, and academics who are interested in improving existing approaches in design and final decision outcomes utilising novel technologies. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/R011265/1. Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

PurposeThis study aims to raise awareness of the key challenges, opportunities and priorities for evidence-based strategies’ application to inform building and urban design decisions.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses deductive qualitative content and manifest analysis, using semi-structured interviews undertaken with building and urban design professionals who represent a UK-based organisation.FindingsThe challenges associated with the practical implementation of frameworks, potential application areas and perceived areas of concern have been identified. These not only include the need to practically test their use, but also to identify the most appropriate forums for their use. Participant responses indicate the need to further develop engagement strategies for their practical implementation, clearly communicating the benefits and efficiencies to all stakeholders.Research limitations/implicationsImplications/ limitations of this study come with the fact that some of the respondents may possess inadequate professional experience in properly evaluating all the questions. Additionally, the information gathered is restricted to the UK geographical context, as well as coming from one organisation, because of data accessibility.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study can be adopted by designers in the strategic definition level to overcome the key challenges associated with the use of evidence-based strategies, enhancing their decision-making processes.Originality/valueAs a theoretical contribution to knowledge, this study enhances the body of knowledge by identifying the challenges associated with the practical implementation of evidence-based strategies to inform building and urban design decisions. In practice, the findings aid urban planners, designers and academics in embedding and adopting strategies that enhance decision-making processes.

Pipe failure prediction models are essential for informing proactive management decisions. This study aims to establish a reliable prediction model returning the probability of pipe failure using a gradient boosted tree model, and a specific segmentation and grouping of pipes on a 1 km grid that associates localised characteristics. The model is applied to an extensive UK network with approximately 40,000 km of pipeline and a 14-year failure history. The model was evaluated using the Receiver Operator Curve and Area Under the Curve (0.89), briers score (0.007) and Mathews Correlation Coefficient (0.27) for accuracy, indicating acceptable predictions. A weighted risk analysis is used to identify the consequence of a pipe failure and provide a graphical representation of high-risk pipes for decision makers. The weighted risk analysis provided an important step to understanding the consequences of the predicted failure. The model can be used directly in strategic planning, which sets long-term key decisions regarding maintenance and potential replacement of pipes.

Urban geometry plays a critical role in determining paths for pedestrian flow in urban areas. To improve the urban planning processes and to enhance quality of life for end-users in urban spaces, a better understanding of the factors influencing pedestrian movement is required by decision-makers within the urban design and planning industry. The aim of this study is to present a novel means to assess pedestrian routing in urban environments. As a unique contribution to knowledge and practice, this study: (a) enhances the body of knowledge by developing a conceptual model to assess and classify pedestrian movement behaviours, utilising machine learning algorithms and location data in conjunction with spatial attributes, and (b) extends previous research by revealing spatial visibility as a driver for pedestrian movement in urban environments. The importance of the findings lies in the perspective of revealing novel insights concerning individual preferences and behaviours of end-users and the utilisation of urban spaces. The approaches developed can be utilised for observations in large-scale contexts, as an addition to traditional methods. Application of the model in a high pedestrian traffic-dense retail urban area in London reveals clear and consistent relationships amongst spatial visibility, individuals’ motivation, and knowledge of the area. Key behaviours established in the study area are grouped into two activity categories: (i) Utilitarian walking (with motivation - expert and novice striders) and (ii) Leisure walking (no motivation - expert and novice strollers). The approach offers an insightful and automated means to understand pedestrian flow in urban contexts and informs wider wayfinding, walkability, and transportation knowledge.

The use of statistical models to predict pipe failures has become an important tool for proactive management of drinking water networks. This targeted review provides an overview of the evolution of existing statistical models, grouped into three categories: deterministic, probabilistic and machine learning. The main advantage of deterministic models is simplicity and relatively minimal data requirements. Deterministic models predicting failure rates for the network or large groups of pipes perform well. These models are also useful for shorter prediction intervals that describe the influences of seasonality. Probabilistic models can accommodate randomness and are useful for predicting time-to-failure, interarrival times and the probability of failure. Probability models are useful for individual pipe models. Generally, machine learning approaches describe large complex data more accurately and can improve predictions for individual pipe failure models yet is complex and requires expert knowledge. Non-parametric models are better suited to the non-linear relationships between pipe failure variables. Census data and socio-economic data require further research. Choosing the most appropriate statistical model requires careful consideration of the type of variables, prediction interval, spatial level, response type and level of inference required.

The water sector has signalled the need to advance organisational and social resilience efforts. There is a lack of understanding of whether the organisational environment in water utilities is conducive to organisational resilience. Themes from interviews showcased challenges related to cognitive and contextual organisational properties. We identified a need to broaden the cognitive frame of utilities to account for flexible concepts of enhanced sense-making. We propose categories of organisational silos and a set of cultural attributes that contribute to organisational resilience. Interventions are needed to develop the cognitive, behavioural, and contextual properties of utilities that support organisational resilience. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC): EP/K012347/1 and Water Research Foundation.

Pipe failure models can aid proactive management decisions and help target pipes in need of preventative repair or replacement. Yet, there are several uncertainties and challenges that arise when developing models, resulting in discord between failure predictions and those observed in the field. This paper aims to raise awareness of the main challenges, uncertainties, and potential advances discussed in key themes, supported by a series of semi-structured interviews undertaken with water professionals. The main discussion topics include data management, data limitations, pre-processing difficulties, model scalability and future opportunities and challenges. Improving data quality and quantity is key in improving pipe failure models. Technological advances in the collection of continuous real-time data from ubiquitous smart networks offer opportunities to improve data collection, whilst machine learning and data analytics methods offer a chance to improve future predictions. In some instances, technological approaches may provide better solutions to tackling short term proactive management. Yet, there remains an opportunity for pipe failure models to provide valuable insights for long-term rehabilitation and replacement planning. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/M009009/1. Anglian Water plc.

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

India is home to more than one quarter of the world's TB burden, and has reported 24.04 lakh new Tuberculosis cases in the year 2019. This number was before the pandemic struck whereas Tuberculosis notication rates fell by 25% during the period of January-June 2020 compared with the same period in 2019. To curb the spread of COVID-19, India announced a nationwide lockdown for 21 days beginning March 2020 that further was extended to several more weeks. This lockdown proved a major hurdle to Tuberculosis patients seeking health care and may result in a delay in diagnosis, treatment interruptions and disease transmission in household contacts. Lockdown has also forced many migrant workers to return to their homes, leading to treatment interruption. In addition to this, since Tuberculosis resembles symptoms of COVID19, this furthermore leads to hesitation and fear in care seeking behaviour leading to decreased Tuberculosis notication rates throughout the country.

Infrastructure networks, such as those for energy, transportation, and telecommunications, perform key functions for society. Although such systems have largely been developed and managed in isolation, infrastructure now functions as a system of systems, exhibiting complex interdependencies that can leave critical functions vulnerable to cascade failure. Consequently, research efforts and management strategies have focused on risks and negative aspects of complexity. This paper explores how interdependencies can be seen positively, representing opportunities to increase organizational resilience and sustainability. A typology is presented for classifying positive interdependencies, drawing on fundamental principles in ecology and validated using case studies. Understanding opportunities that arise from interdependency will enable better understanding and management of infrastructure complexity, which in turn will allow the use of such complexity to the advantage of society. Integrative thinking is necessary not only for mitigating risk but also for identifying innovations to make systems and organizations more sustainable and resilient.

“Blue Growth” and “Blue Economy” is defined by the World Bank as: “the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, while preserving the health of ocean ecosystem”. Multi-purpose platforms (MPPs) can be defined as offshore platforms serving the needs of multiple offshore industries (energy and aquaculture), aim at exploiting the synergies and managing the tensions arising when closely co-locating systems from these industries. Despite a number of previous projects aimed at assessing, from a multidisciplinary point of view, the feasibility of multipurpose platforms, it is here shown that the state-of-the-art has focused mainly on single-purpose devices, and adopting a single discipline (either economic, or social, or technological, or environmental) approach. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to provide a multidisciplinary state of the art review on, whenever possible, multi-purpose platforms, complementing it with single-purpose and/or single discipline literature reviews when not possible. Synoptic tables are provided, giving an overview of the multi-purpose platform concepts investigated, the numerical approaches adopted, and a comprehensive snapshot classifying the references discussed by industry (offshore renewables, aquaculture, both) and by aspect (technological, environmental, socio-economic). The majority of the multi-purpose platform concepts proposed are integrating only multiple offshore renewable energy devices (e.g. hybrid wind-wave), with only few integrating also aquaculture systems. MPPs have significant potential in economizing CAPEX and operational costs for the offshore energy and aquaculture industry by means of concerted spatial planning and sharing of infrastructure.

Cumulative effects assessments are a legal requirement in many jurisdictions and are key to informing marine policy. However, practice does not yet deliver fit-for-purpose assessments relative to sustainable development and environmental protection obligations. The complexity of cumulative effect questions, which are embedded in complex social-ecological systems, makes multiple, methodologically diverse assessments a necessity. Using the expansion of marine renewable energy developments in European Union waters as a case study, this paper explores how social-ecological systems thinking and cumulative effects assessment theory can combine to structure CEAs that better support the management and regulation of maritime activities at regional scales. A general perspective for cumulative effects assessment is proposed to remove ambiguity of intent and to orient assessments towards a common objective. Candidate principles for practice are presented for consideration. These principles are integrated into a stepped assessment approach that seeks to improve cumulative effects assessments of localised activities relative to the information needs of decision-makers implementing the ecosystem approach.

Society relies on infrastructure, but as infrastructure systems are often collocated and interdependent, they are vulnerable to cascading failures. This study investigated cross-infrastructure and societal impacts of burst water mains, with the hypothesis that multi-infrastructure failures triggered by burst water mains are more common in sandy soils. When water mains in sandy soils burst, pressurised water can create subsurface voids and abrasive slurries, contributing to further infrastructure failures. Three spatial data investigations, at nested scales, were used to assess the influence that soil sand content has on the frequency and damage caused by burst water mains (1) to roads in the county of Lincolnshire, (2) to other proximal water mains in East Anglia and (3) to other proximal infrastructure and wider society across England and Wales. These investigations used infrastructure network and failure data, media reports and soil maps, and were supported by workshop discussions and structured interviews with infrastructure industry experts. The workshop, interviews and media reports produced a greater depth of information on the infrastructure and societal impacts of cascading failures than the analysis of infrastructure data. Cross-infrastructure impacts were most common on roads, built structures and gas pipes, and they occurred at a higher rate in soils with very high sand contents.

As increasing evidence shows that the risks of climate change are mounting, there is a call for further climate action (both reducing global emissions, and adaptation to better manage the risks of climate change). To promote and enable adaptation, governments have introduced, or are considering introducing, reporting on climate risks and efforts being taken to address those risks. This paper reports on an analysis of the first two rounds of such reports submitted under the UK Climate Change Act (2008) Adaptation Reporting Power. It highlights benefits and challenges for reporting authorities and policymakers receiving the reports that could also inform other countries considering such reporting. For reporting authorities, benefits arise from the reporting process and resulting reports. These benefits include elevating climate risks and adaptation to the corporate level and with stakeholders, alongside facilitating alignment and integration of actions within existing risk management and governance structures. For policymakers, reporting provides enhanced understanding of climate risks and actions from a bottom-up perspective that can be integrated into national-level assessments and adaptation planning processes. The identified challenges are those related to capacity and process. These include limited risk and adaptation assessment capacities; relevance of climate change risks and adaptation in the context of other urgent risks and actions; reporting process effectiveness and robustness; and the provision of effective and sufficiently comprehensive support, including feedback.

The reliability of the water distribution system is critical to maintaining a secure supply for the population, industry and agriculture, so there is a need for proactive maintenance to help reduce water loss and down times. Bayesian networks are one approach to modelling the complexity of water mains, to assist water utility companies in planning maintenance. This paper compares and analyses how accurately the Bayesian network structure can be derived given a large and highly variable dataset. Method one involved using automated learning algorithms to build the Bayesian network, while method two involved a guided method using a combination of historic failure data, prior knowledge and pre-modelling data exploration of the water mains. By understanding common failure types (circumferential, longitudinal, pinhole and joint), the guided learning Bayesian Network was able to capture the interactions of the surrounding soil environment with the physical properties of pipes. The Bayesian network built using data exploration and literature was able to achieve an overall accuracy of 81.2% when predicting the specific type of water mains failure compared to the 84.4% for the automated method. The slightly greater accuracy from the automated method was traded for a sparser Bayes net where the interpretation of the interactions between the variables was clearer and more meaningful.

Big Data Approaches (BDAs) refers to the combined use of historic datasets, incoming data streams, and the array of related technologies designed to shed new light on societal and environmental complexities through novel organizational, storage, and analytical capabilities. Despite widespread recognition of the commercial benefits of BDAs, application in the environmental domain is less well articulated. This represents a missed opportunity given that the dimensions used to characterize BDAs (volume, variety, velocity, and veracity) appear apt in describing the intractable challenges posed by global climate change. This paper employs coastal flood risk management as an illustrative case study to explore the potential applications in the environmental domain. Trends in global change including accelerating sea level rise, concentration of people and assets in low‐lying areas and deterioration of protective coastal ecosystems are expected to manifest locally as increased future flood risk. Two branches of coastal flood risk management are considered. First, coastal flood risk assessment, focusing on better characterization of hazard sources, facilitative pathways, and vulnerable receptors. Second, flood emergency response procedures, focusing on forecasting of flooding events, dissemination of warnings, and response monitoring. Critical commentary regarding technical, contextual, institutional, and behavioral barriers to the implementation of BDAs is offered throughout including a discussion of two fundamental difficulties associated with applying BDAs to coastal flood risk management: the role of BDAs in the broader flood system and the skill requirements for a generation of data scientists capable of implementing Big Data Approaches. This article is categorized under: Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Knowledge and Practice Climate, History, Society, Culture > Technological Aspects and Ideas

The literature on ocean energy has, to date, largely focussed on technical, environmental, and, increasingly, social and political aspects. Legal and regulatory factors have received far less attention, despite their importance in supporting this new technology and ensuring its sustainable development. Building on the social sciences research agenda developed by the International network for Social Studies of Marine Energy (ISSMER) and published in Energy Policy, a complementary agenda for legal research linked to ocean energy was set out. Key directions for future research structured around the core themes of marine governance: (i) international law; (ii) environmental impacts; (iii) rights and ownership; (iv) consenting processes; and (v) management of marine space and resources were identified.

Society relies on infrastructure, but colocation and interdependencies make infrastructure systems vulnerable to cascading failures. This study investigated cross-infrastructure and societal impacts of burst water mains, with the hypotheses that (1) burst main-triggered cross-infrastructure failures are more common in sandy soils and (2) mixed-methods approaches are more beneficial than pure data analysis for understanding the wide-ranging impacts of these events. When water mains in sandy soils burst, pressurised water can create sub-surface voids and abrasive slurries, contributing to further infrastructure failures. To investigate the role of soil in hosting cascading infrastructure failures, maps of soil sand content for England and Wales were created. Analysis of the infrastructure impacts arising from burst mains combined; (1) spatio-temporal clustering and analysis of infrastructure failure data, (2) meta-analysis of web-based media reports of burst mains impacting on other networks, and (3) workshop discussions and structured interviews with infrastructure industry experts. The workshop, interviews and media reports produced a greater depth of information on the infrastructure and societal impacts of cascading failures than the spatio-temporal data analysis. Cross infrastructure impacts were most common on roads, built structures and gas pipes, and occurred at a higher rate in soils with very high sand contents.

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10 year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well.

The water utility sector is subject to stringent legislation, seeking to address both the evolution of practices within the chemical/pharmaceutical industry, and the safeguarding of environmental protection, and which is informed by stakeholder views. Growing public environmental awareness is balanced by fair apportionment of liability within-sector. This highly complex and dynamic context poses challenges for water utilities seeking to manage the diverse chemicals arising from disparate sources reaching Wastewater Treatment Plants, including residential, commercial, and industrial points of origin, and diffuse sources including agricultural and hard surface water run-off. Effluents contain broad ranges of organic and inorganic compounds, herbicides, pesticides, phosphorus, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals of emerging concern. These potential pollutants can be in dissolved form, or arise in association with organic matter, the associated risks posing significant environmental challenges. This paper examines how the adoption of new Big Data tools and computational technologies can offer great advantage to the water utility sector in addressing this challenge. Big Data approaches facilitate improved understanding and insight of these challenges, by industry, regulator, and public alike. We discuss how Big Data approaches can be used to improve the outputs of tools currently in use by the water industry, such as SAGIS (Source Apportionment GIS system), helping to reveal new relationships between chemicals, the environment, and human health, and in turn provide better understanding of contaminants in wastewater (origin, pathways, and persistence). We highlight how the sector can draw upon Big Data tools to add value to legacy datasets, such as the Chemicals Investigation Programme in the UK, combined with contemporary data sources, extending the lifespan of data, focusing monitoring strategies, and helping users adapt and plan more efficiently. Despite the relative maturity of the Big Data technology and adoption in many wider sectors, uptake within the water utility sector remains limited to date. By contrast with the extensive range of applications of Big Data in in other sectors, highlight is drawn to how improvements are required to achieve the full potential of this technology in the water utility industry.

Proponents of marine renewable energy worldwide highlight that regulatory and consenting procedures are a significant barrier to the upscaling of infrastructure required to transform the energy generation sector. Uncertainties about the cumulative effects of marine renewable energy developments cause substantial delays during the consenting process, which are exacerbated by the lack of clarity about how to assess cumulative effects. These obstacles have contributed to perceptions that this essential emerging industry receives disproportionate scrutiny relative to established maritime activities. However, alongside legislated targets to reduce carbon emissions, there are legal obligations to protect, maintain and improve the condition of the marine environment. As the imperative to halt the decline in the condition of the environment increases, so expectations of cumulative impact assessments grow and the risk of consenting delays persists. To investigate how robust current cumulative impact assessment practise is, a novel evaluation framework was developed and applied to Environmental Statements of the world's largest offshore wind farms, currently in United Kingdom waters. The framework was designed to evaluate cumulative impact assessments relative to the information needs of decision-makers tasked with managing cumulative effects. We found that current practise does not meet those needs, that there is dissonance between science and practise, and problematic variability between assessments was observed. Straightforward recommendations for improved practise are provided, which if implemented may ease the perceived regulatory burden by clarifying practise. We also highlight additional steps that could enable project-led cumulative impact assessments to better support regional marine management. The results and recommendations will be of interest to countries worldwide where marine renewable energy is emerging alongside ecosystem-approach and marine spatial planning aspirations.

The technical expertise that politicians relied on in the past to produce cost-effective and environmentally sound solutions no longer provides sufficient justification to approve waste facilities. Local authorities need to find more effective ways to involve stakeholders and communities in decision-making since public acceptance of municipal waste facilities is integral to delivering effective waste strategies. This paper presents findings from a research project that explored attitudes towards greater levels of public involvement in UK waste management decision-making. The study addressed questions of perception, interests, the decision context, the means of engagement and the necessary resources and capacity for adopting a participatory decision process. Adopting a mixed methods approach, the research produced an empirical framework for negotiating the mode and level of public involvement in waste management decision-making. The framework captures and builds on theories of public involvement and the experiences of practitioners, and offers guidance for integrating analysis and deliberation with public groups in different waste management decision contexts. Principles in the framework operate on the premise that the decision about 'more' and 'better' forms of public involvement can be negotiated, based on the nature of the waste problem and wider social context of decision-making. The collection of opinions from the wide range of stakeholders involved in the study has produced new insights for the design of public engagement processes that are context-dependent and 'fit-for-purpose'; these suggest a need for greater inclusivity in the case of contentious technologies and high levels of uncertainty regarding decision outcomes.

Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services.

Research on adaptation barriers is increasing as the need for climate change adaptation becomes evident. However, empirical studies regarding the emergence, causes and sustenance of adaptation barriers remain limited. This research identifies key contextual causes of adaptation barriers in water institutions in the mountainous Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh in northern India. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with representatives from twenty-six key governmental, non-governmental, academic and research institutions in the State with responsibilities spanning domestic water supply, irrigation and hydropower generation, environmental monitoring and research. It identified low knowledge capacity and resources, policy implementation gaps, normative attitudes, and unavailability and inaccessibility of data and information compounded with weak interinstitutional networks as key adaptation barriers. Although these barriers are similar to those reported elsewhere, they have important locally-contextual root causes. For instance, inadequate resources result from fragmented resources allocation due to competing developmental priorities and the desire of the political leadership to please diverse electors, rather than climate scepticism. The identified individual barriers are found to be highly inter-dependent and closely intertwined which enables the identification of leverage points for interventions to maximise barrier removal. For instance, breaking down key barriers hindering accessibility to data and information, which are shaped by systemic bureaucracies and cultural attitudes, will involve attitudinal change through sensitisation to the importance of accurate and accessible data and information and the building trust between different actors, in addition to institutional structural changes through legislation and inter-institutional agreements. Approaching barriers as a system of contextually interconnected cultural, systemic, geographical and political underlying factors enriches the understanding of adaptation enablers, thereby contributing to achieving a better adapted society.

The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Tyndall Coastal Simulator’ including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans.

In the majority of choice experiments (CEs) the attributes of non-market goods are conveyed to respondents as a table of numeric and/or categorical data. Recent research suggests that respondents may have difficulties evaluating data in this format. In the context of a CE eliciting preferences for changes in coastal land use, this study uses a split-sample experiment to compare standard presentations with virtual reality (VR) visualisations conveying objectively identical information. We find that compared to the standard presentation, preferences elicited in VR treatments are less variable and exhibit a significant reduction in asymmetry between willingness to pay (WTP) for gains and willingness to accept (WTA) for corresponding losses. We conjecture that the greater ‘evaluability’ of the VR presentation reduces respondent judgement error and moderates reliance on the loss-aversion heuristic.

The current shift toward “soft” forms of coastal defense as means of adapting to future sea level rise requires careful communication and consultation if they are to gain widespread public acceptance. For this to be achieved then coastal managers must improve the manner in which they communicate with stakeholders and members of the public. One possible solution may be through the application of landscape visualization techniques to illustrate how new policies or management interventions may shape the coast. This article investigates the potential role of such methods in participatory coastal management. Using interviews with coastal managers, the potential application of visualization techniques in coastal management processes are explored in detail. The findings suggest that while a number of possible roles for visualization techniques exist, there is an urgent need for practical testing and evaluation of the technology in participatory decision-making processes.

Coastal management information is frequently communicated to stakeholders and the public through complicated management documents and engineering plans. With the recognition that public involvement in coastal decision-making processes should be widened have come calls to develop new techniques to communicate complicated coastal information. Using Virtual Reality Geographical Information Systems and visualization packages, such information may be presented using formats more suitable for public consultation and information dissemination exercises than those currently employed. Using a site on the north Norfolk coast of England, an integrated Geographical Information Systems based methodology is presented that allows the visualization of proposed coastal management interventions. Visualizations have been produced that can be published in traditional paper-based management documents, or electronically. The different visualizations are compared and the technical issues surrounding their use discussed. It is a...

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge and prediction of land erosion rates due to encroachment of the sea. However, in addition to demarcation of the hazard through modelling and mapping, a policy of risk mitigation necessitates significant attention should also be addressed to communicating the transient behaviour of the predictions and associated uncertainty. With climate change and sea level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualisation of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of this changing risk. This visual content is developed by linking scientific modelling with the transformation of digital elevation models, and then using GIS to integrate other spatiotemporal content. The resulting high-resolution visualisations may meet demands from decision-makers for tools to communicate scientific results more effectively, due to their realism and apparent authenticity. Nevertheless they can also produces a tension with the underlying scientific content because of the necessary extrapolation of extra detail, and the lack of established procedures to communicate the resulting uncertainty in the visualisation. Coastal managers also have concerns about releasing the visualisations to the general public. These issues are explored through analysis of future cliff erosion in Norfolk on the eastern coast of Great Britain.

It is widely recognised that organisations involved in coastal management must take steps to improve the ways in which stakeholders and the public are involved in coastal decision-making. In particular, there needs to be more emphasis on improving participation, consultation, and information provision throughout the process. In recognition of this, there is a need to develop new techniques that could aid the communication of coastal information to the public. It has been suggested that some of these techniques might involve the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Whilst GIS are widely used by coastal managers, their application is hampered by the highly technical output that they often produce. However, the advent of a new type of system known as virtual reality GIS enables the likely effects of coastal management decisions to be presented in a format that is suitable for widespread consultation and dissemination. A proposed managed realignment scheme on the north Norfolk coast, England, is used to describe an integrated GIS methodology allowing the production of virtual reality representations of the current site environment and simulations of what might be present after the intervention. Both static and user-navigable visualisations have been produced because these lend themselves to both paper and electronic publication. Comparisons between the alternative methods are presented along with a discussion of the technical, user, and institutional issues surrounding the potential application of the methodology. It is argued that the techniques presented have the potential to stimulate meaningful discussion during the consultation process, although further research is still required to determine the exact form this might take.

A key challenge facing coastal management organisations is the need to effectively communicate the potential risks posed by coastal change and associated adaptation options, particularly if the potential for misunderstanding and conflict is to be avoided (e.g. in cases which are scientifically complex and involve many interested parties). GIS technology is appropriate and widely used by coastal planners and managers; however, its application in decision-making processes is often hampered by the highly technical output that they tend to produce. This can prove particularly difficult for members of the public to interpret. The dynamic, multidimensional and uncertain nature of the coastal zone presents particular challenges to those wishing to communicate possible future coastal change and management options.

Coastal zones exemplify the environmental pressures we face: their beauty attracts settlement, they offer potential for diverse economic activities, and they are sensitive natural habitats for important species, as well as providing a range of ecosystem services. They are also extremely vulnerable to the vicissitudes of climate change, which include rising sea levels and changes in extreme events such as storms. With large populations living in coastal and estuarine cities facing the ongoing threat of inundation, coordinated management is essential, especially as coastal zones form a linked system in which piecemeal, uncoordinated management could be counterproductive.

The Tyndall Coastal Simulator comprised a wide range of modelling activities across disciplines and institutions. This activity generated diverse results, described in the preceding chapters. Organising this body of knowledge into a coherent and accessible form for use by stakeholders and for additional ad hoc analyses emerged as a substantial task in its own right.

Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with 'aggressor' personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with 'avoider' personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the 'aggressor' personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the 'avoider' personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power.

To date, academic research relating to Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) has largely focused on resource assessment, technical viability and environmental impact. Experiences from onshore renewable energy tell us that social acceptability is equally critical to project success. However, the specific nature of the marine environment, patterns of resource distribution and governance means experiences from onshore may not be directly applicable to MRE and the marine environment. This paper sets out an agenda for social studies research linked to MRE, identifying key topics for future research: (i) economic impacts; (ii) wealth distribution and community benefits; (iii) communication and knowledge flow; (iv) consultation processes; (v) dealing with uncertainty; (vi) public attitudes; and (vii) planning processes. This agenda is based on the findings of the first workshop of ISSMER, an international research network of social scientists with interests in marine renewable energy. Importantly, this research agenda has been informed by the experiences of developers, regulators and community groups in Orkney. The Orkney archipelago, off the north coast of Scotland, is home to the most intense cluster of MRE research, development and deployment activity in the world today. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The "decide-announce-defend" approach to decision-making offers few meaningful opportunities for engagement in decision processes and communities and individuals frequently feel isolated from decisions. Correspondingly, many practitioners believe science is misunderstood by communities and that messages on risk are susceptible to distortion or misrepresentation. Many voices have called for more inclusive approaches to the analysis and management of risk. Here, we draw on theoretical and practical insights from the fields of risk communication, community engagement and contaminated land management, to explore some of the unique issues involved in communicating risk issues to lay audiences, and to identify principles for engaging communities in contaminated land risk management. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

One of the scalability features in H.264/SVC is spatial scalability, and it is found to be useful in distribution of video content to a variety of consumers. Transmission of an H.264/SVC stream over a packet network may introduce losses, at worst case would involve whole frame losses. It is necessary to conceal the errors in the decoded bitstream. We propose an improvement in the error concealment scheme in H.264/SVC by improved motion estimation and post processing of the concealed frames in the pixel domain. The proposed method successfully conceals the lost frame and was found to be effective for low bitrate video transmission over conventional methods.

Coastal zones attract settlements, are ideal for a range of economic activities and accommodate important natural habitats that provide ecosystem services. All these coastal activities are vulnerable to climate and other changes unless appropriate management policies are implemented. Sea-level rise and intensified storms could increase the incidence of flooding and erosion, as well as degrade coastal ecosystems. Importantly, the coast is a linked system, and management responses for one area or sector may influence the impacts for other areas or sectors. Understanding coastal processes and taking account of climate and socio-economic futures helps to illustrate/reveal impending choices,and in developing responsive informed long-term coastal management policies. This paper describes research being carried out by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research on their Coastal Simulator. The research includes the linkage of a range of modelling procedures to represent coastal management and climate and coastal processes, as well as the design of a GIS-based interface to make the intergrated results accessible. The prototype simulator provides regional impact assessments of climate and socio-economic futures under various management options in the coastal zones of Norfolk, Fast Anglia and shows that erosion and flood risk are strongly linked.