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The Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, experienced an extensive melt event in January 2016. We examine the representation of this event by the HIRHAM5 and MetUM high-resolution regional atmospheric models, as well as a sophisticated offline-coupled firn model forced with their outputs. The model results are compared with satellite-based estimates of melt days. The firn model estimates of the number of melt days are in good agreement with the observations over the eastern and central sectors of the ice shelf, while the HIRHAM5 and MetUM estimates based on their own surface schemes are considerably underestimated, possibly due to deficiencies in these schemes and an absence of spin-up. However, the firn model simulates sustained melting over the western sector of the ice shelf, in disagreement with the observations that show this region as being a melt-free area. This is attributed to deficiencies in the HIRHAM5 and MetUM output and particularly a likely overestimation of night-time net surface radiative flux. This occurs in response to an increase in night-time downwelling longwave flux from around 180–200 to 280 W m -2 over the course of a few days, leading to an excessive amount of energy at the surface available for melt. Satellite-based observations show that this change coincides with a transition from clear-sky to cloudy conditions, with clouds containing both liquid water and ice water. The models capture the initial clear-sky conditions but seemingly struggle to correctly represent cloud properties associated with the cloudy conditions, which we suggest is responsible for the radiative flux errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial lakes form beneath ice sheets and ice caps if water is available and if bedrock and surface topography are able to retain the water. On a regional scale, the lakes modulate the timing and rate of freshwater flow through the subglacial system to the ocean by acting as reservoirs. More than 100 hydrologically active subglacial lakes that drain and recharge periodically have been documented under the Antarctic Ice Sheet, while only approximately 20 active lakes have been identified in Greenland. Active lakes may be identified by local changes in ice topography caused by the drainage or recharge of the lake beneath the ice. The small size of the Greenlandic subglacial lakes puts additional demands on mapping capabilities to resolve the evolving surface topography in sufficient detail to record their temporal behaviour. Here, we explore the potential for using CryoSat-2 swath-processed data, together with TanDEM-X digital elevation models, to improve the monitoring capabilities of active subglacial lakes in Greenland. We focus on four subglacial lakes previously described in the literature and combine the data with ArcticDEMs to obtain improved measurements of the evolution of these four lakes. We find that with careful tuning of the swath processor and filtering of the output data, the inclusion of these data, together with the TanDEM-X data, provides important information on lake activity, documenting, for example, that the ice surface collapse basin on Flade Isblink Ice Cap was 50 % (30 m) deeper than previously recorded. We also present evidence of a new, active subglacial lake in southwestern Greenland, which is located close to an already known lake. Both lakes probably drained within 1 month in the summer of 2012, which suggests either that they are hydrologically connected or that the drainages were independently triggered by extensive surface melt. If the hydrological connection is confirmed, this would to our knowledge be the first indication of hydrologically connected subglacial lakes in Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution to sea level to 2200 from the grounded, mainland Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet (APIS) was calculated using an ice-sheet model initialized with a new technique computing ice fluxes based on observed surface velocities, altimetry and surface mass balance, and computing volume response using a linearized method. Volume change estimates of the APIS resulting from surface massbalance anomalies calculated by the regional model RACMO2, forced by A1B and E1 scenarios of the global models ECHAM5 and HadCM3, predicted net negative sea-level contributions between -0.5 and -12mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2200. Increased glacier flow due to ice thickening returned ~15% of the increased accumulation to the sea by 2100 and ~30% by 2200. The likely change in volume of the APIS by 2200 in response to imposed 10 and 20km retreats of the grounding line at individual large outlet glaciers in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula, ranged between 0.5 and 3.5mm SLE per drainage basin. Ensemble calculations of APIS volume change resulting from imposed grounding-line retreat due to ice-shelf break-up scenarios applied to all 20 of the largest drainage basins in Palmer Land (covering ~40% of the total area of APIS) resulted in net sea-level contributions of 7-16mm SLE by 2100, and 10-25mm SLE by 2200. Inclusion of basins in the northern peninsula and realistic simulation of grounding-line movement for AP outlet glaciers will improve future projections.

Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/GR; Ettema et al., 2009), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sørensen et al., 2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011). © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Abstract. The Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, experienced an extensive melt event in January 2016. We examine the representation of this event by the HIRHAM5 and MetUM high-resolution regional atmospheric models, as well as a sophisticated offline coupled firn model forced with their outputs. The model results are compared with satellite-based estimates of melt days. The firn model estimates of the number of melt days are in good agreement with the observations over the eastern and central sectors of the ice shelf, while the HIRHAM5 and MetUM estimates based on their own surface schemes are considerably underestimated, possibly due to deficiencies in these schemes and an absence of spin-up. However, the firn model simulates sustained melting over the western sector of the ice shelf, in disagreement with the observations that show this region as being melt-free. This is attributed to deficiencies in the HIRHAM5 and MetUM output, and particularly a likely overestimation of nighttime net surface radiative flux. This occurs in response to an increase in nighttime downwelling longwave flux from around 180-200 W m-2 to 280 W m-2 over the course of a few days, leading to an excessive amount of energy at the surface available for melt. Satellite-based observations show that this change coincides with a transition from clear-sky conditions to clouds containing both liquid-water and ice-water. The models capture the initial clear-sky conditions but seemingly struggle to correctly represent the ice-to-liquid mass partitioning associated with the cloudy conditions, which we suggest is responsible for the radiative flux errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is a severe and prevalent psychiatric disorder. Mentalization-based therapy (MBT) is an evidence-based intervention for BPD, and several countries offer treatment programs for BPD lasting for years, which is resource demanding. No previous trial has compared short-term with long-term MBT. Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the efficacy and safety of short-term versus long-term MBT for outpatients with BPD. Methods: Adult outpatients (≥18 years) with subthreshold or diagnosed BPD were randomly assigned (1:1) to short-term MBT (5 months) or long-term MBT (14 months). The primary outcome was BPD symptoms assessed with the Zanarini Rating Scale for Borderline Personality Disorder. Secondary outcomes were functional impairment, quality of life, global functioning, and severe self-harm. All outcomes were primarily assessed at 16 months after randomization. This trial was prospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03677037. Results: Between October 4, 2018, and December 3, 2020, we randomly assigned 166 participants to short-term MBT (n = 84) or long-term MBT (n = 82). Regression analyses showed no evidence of a difference when assessing BPD symptoms (MD 0.99; 95% CI: −1.06 to 3.03; p = 0.341), level of functioning (MD 1.44; 95% CI: −1.43 to 4.32; p = 0.321), quality of life (MD −0.91; 95% CI: −4.62 to 2.79; p = 0.626), global functioning (MD −2.25; 95% CI: −6.70 to 2.20; p = 0.318), or severe self-harm (RR 1.37; 95% CI: 0.70–2.84; p = 0.335). More participants in the long-term MBT group had a serious adverse event compared with short-term MBT (RR 1.63; 95% CI: 0.94–3.07; p = 0.088), primarily driven by a difference in psychiatric hospitalizations (RR 2.03; 95% CI: 0.99–5.09; p = 0.056). Conclusion: Long-term MBT did not lead to lower levels of BPD symptoms, nor did it influence any of the secondary outcomes compared with short-term MBT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]