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Economists, demographers and other social scientists have long debated the relationship between demographic change and economic outcomes. In recent years, general agreement has emerged to the effect that improving economic conditions for individuals generally lead to lower birth rates. But, there is much less agreement about the proposition that lower birth rates contribute to economic development and help individuals and families to escape from poverty. The paper examines recent evidence on this aspect of the debate, concludes that the burden of evidence now increasingly supports a positive conclusion, examines recent trends in demographic change and economic development and argues that the countries representing the last development frontier, those of Sub-Saharan Africa, would be well advised to incorporate policies and programmes to reduce high fertility in their economic development strategies.

Two great debates--whether population growth is a problem and how to address the problem if one exists--dominated population policy discussions in the 20th century. The debate about whether pitted those who saw rapid population growth as a problem against those who believed the cries of alarm were false. The debate about how was conducted between advocates of the direct delivery of contraceptives through family planning programs and those who counseled a broader, more holistic approach. The debate about how was largely resolved by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo; the debate about whether remains unresolved. Environmentalists, ecologists, and physical scientists generally support the view that rapid population growth is harmful, but economists remain largely unconvinced. Contemporary declines in fertility and the end of the population crisis mentality of the mid- to late 20th century could, ironically, diminish public support for precisely those programs that have been responsible for the rapid fertility decline of the past 3 decades--programs that will be required to complete the "demographic transition" in those parts of the developing world where fertility remains very high.

It is contended that issues of population growth will continue to be an important frontier of international health. Kenya's case is examined and its achievements in arresting its population growth are analyzed. The case is made that Kenya's experience is transferable to other countries in Africa.