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Previous research employing a conceptual approach with a digital twin has demonstrated that (noise-based) dynamic watermarking is incapable of providing unconditional security in smart electrical grid systems. However, the implementation of digital twins can be prohibitively costly or infeasible due to limited available data on critical infrastructure. In this study, we first analyze the spectral properties of dynamic watermarking and its associated protocol. Subsequently, we present a straightforward attack inspired by the digital twin method, which extracts and utilizes the grid noises and completely breaches the security of dynamic watermarking without requiring knowledge of the private watermarking signal. The attacker can fully expose the grid while evading detection by the controller. Our findings indicate that in the absence of secure and authenticated communications, dynamic watermarking offers neither conditional nor unconditional security. Conversely, when communication lines, sensors, and communicators are equipped with tamper-resistant and secure/authenticated links, dynamic watermarking becomes redundant for grid security., Comment: Accepted for publication in Fluctuation and Noise Letters

Unconditional security for smart grids is defined. Cryptanalyses of the watermarked security of smart grids indicate that watermarking cannot guarantee unconditional security unless the communication within the grid system is unconditionally secure. The successful attack against the dynamically watermarked smart grid remains valid even with the presence of internal noise from the grid. An open question arises: if unconditionally authenticated secure communications within the grid, together with tamper resistance of the critical elements, are satisfactory conditions to provide unconditional security for the grid operation., Comment: Accepted for publication in Fluct. Noise Lett

Distribution system end users are transforming from passive to active participants, marked by the push towards widespread adoption of edge-level Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). This paper addresses the challenges in distribution system planning arising from these dynamic changes. We introduce a bottom-up probabilistic approach that integrates these edge-level DERs into the reliability evaluation process. Our methodology leverages joint probability distributions to characterize and model the penetration of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems and energy storage across a distribution network at the individual residential level. Employing a scenario-based approach, we showcase the application of our probabilistic method using a Monte Carlo Simulation process to assess average system reliability indices and their variations at the user level. To validate our approach, we applied this methodology to the RBTS test system across various adoption scenarios, effectively showcasing the capability of our proposed method in quantifying the variation in end-user reliability indices for each scenario within the distribution system., Comment: 10 Pages, 6 figures, Journal

A free industry-grade education tool is developed for bulk-power-system reliability assessment. The software architecture is illustrated using a high-level flowchart. Three main algorithms of this tool, i.e., sequential Monte Carlo simulation, unit preventive maintenance schedule, and optimal-power-flow-based load shedding, are introduced. The input and output formats are described in detail, including the roles of different data cards and results categorization. Finally, an example case study is conducted on a five-area system to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this tool., Comment: This paper was submitted to a conference

Blockchain technologies are considered one of the most disruptive innovations of the last decade, enabling secure decentralized trust-building. However, in recent years, with the rapid increase in the energy consumption of blockchain-based computations for cryptocurrency mining, there have been growing concerns about their sustainable operation in electric grids. This paper investigates the tri-factor impact of such large loads on carbon footprint, grid reliability, and electricity market price in the Texas grid. We release open-source high-resolution data to enable high-resolution modeling of influencing factors such as location and flexibility. We reveal that the per-megawatt-hour carbon footprint of cryptocurrency mining loads across locations can vary by as much as 50% of the crude system average estimate. We show that the flexibility of mining loads can significantly mitigate power shortages and market disruptions that can result from the deployment of mining loads. These findings suggest policymakers to facilitate the participation of large mining facilities in wholesale markets and require them to provide mandatory demand response., Comment: This paper has been accepted for publication in the journal of "Advances in Applied Energy"

The February 2021 Texas winter power outage has led to hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in economic losses, largely due to the generation failure and record-breaking electric demand. In this paper, we study the scaling-up of demand flexibility as a means to avoid load shedding during such an extreme weather event. The three mechanisms considered are interruptible load, residential load rationing, and incentive-based demand response. By simulating on a synthetic but realistic large-scale Texas grid model along with demand flexibility modeling and electricity outage data, we identify portfolios of mixing mechanisms that exactly avoid outages, which a single mechanism may fail due to decaying marginal effects. We also reveal a complementary relationship between interruptible load and residential load rationing and find nonlinear impacts of incentive-based demand response on the efficacy of other mechanisms., Comment: This paper has been submitted to a journal for review

Conventional power system reliability suffers from the long run time of Monte Carlo simulation and the dimension-curse of analytic enumeration methods. This paper proposes a preliminary investigation on end-to-end machine learning for directly predicting the reliability index, e.g., the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). By encoding the system admittance matrix into the input feature, the proposed machine learning pipeline can consider the impact of specific topology changes due to regular maintenances of transmission lines. Two models (Support Vector Machine and Boosting Trees) are trained and compared. Details regarding the training data creation and preprocessing are also discussed. Finally, experiments are conducted on the IEEE RTS-79 system. Results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed end-to-end machine learning pipeline in reliability assessment., Comment: This paper has been accepted by PMAPS 2022 and will be officially presented on 14 June 2022

Unprecedented winter storms that hit across Texas in February 2021 have caused at least 69 deaths and 4.5 million customer interruptions due to the wide-ranging generation capacity outage and record-breaking electricity demand. While much remains to be investigated on what, how, and why such wide-spread power outages occurred across Texas, it is imperative for the broader macro energy community to develop insights for policy making based on a coherent electric grid model and data set. In this paper, we collaboratively release an open-source extendable model that is synthetic but nevertheless provides a realistic representation of the actual energy grid, accompanied by open-source cross-domain data sets. This simplified synthetic model is calibrated to the best of our knowledge based on published data resources. Building upon this open-source synthetic grid model, researchers could quantitatively assess the impact of various policies on mitigating the impact of such extreme events. As an example, in this paper we critically assess several corrective measures that could have mitigated the blackout under such extreme weather conditions. We uncover the regional disparity of load shedding. The analysis also quantifies the sensitivity of several corrective measures with respect to mitigating the severity of the power outage, as measured in Energy-not-Served (ENS). This approach and methodology are generalizable for other regions experiencing significant energy portfolio transitions., Comment: This paper have been accepted for publish by Advances in Applied Energy

This paper presents a sensitivity-based approach for the placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) in power systems. The approach is based on the fact that most planning studies utilize some form of optimization, and solutions to these optimization problems provide insights into the sensitivity of many system variables to operating conditions and constraints. However, most of the existing sensitivity-based planning criteria do not capture ranges of effectiveness of these solutions (i.e., ranges of the effectiveness of Lagrange multipliers). The proposed method detects the ranges of the effectiveness of Lagrange multipliers and uses them to determine optimal solution alternatives. Profiles for existing generation and loads, and transmission constraints are taken into consideration. The proposed method is used to determine the impacts of DERs at different locations, in the presence of a stochastic element (load variability). This method consists of sequentially calculating Lagrange multipliers of the dual solution of the optimization problem for various load buses for all load scenarios. Optimal sizes and sites of resources are jointly determined in a sequential manner based on the validity of active constraints. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through several case studies on various test systems including the IEEE reliability test system (IEEE RTS), the IEEE 14, and 30 bus systems. In comparison with conventional sensitivity-based approaches (i.e., without considering ranges of validity of Lagrange multipliers), the proposed approach provides more accurate results for active constraints., Comment: This paper has been accepted and presented in PMAPS 2020 conference

This paper considers the problem of approximating the failure frequency of large-scale composite $k$-terminal reliability systems. In such systems, the nodes ($k$ of which are terminals) are connected through components which are subject to random failure and repair processes. At any time, a system failure occurs if the surviving system fails to connect all the k terminals together. We assume that each component's up-times and down-times follow statistically independent stationary random processes, and these processes are statistically independent across the components. In this setting, the exact computation of failure frequency is known to be computationally intractable (NP-hard). In this work, we present an algorithm to approximate the failure frequency for any given multiplicative error factor that runs in polynomial time in the number of (minimal) cutsets. Moreover, for the special case of all-terminal reliability systems, i.e., where all nodes are terminals, we propose an algorithm for approximating the failure frequency within an arbitrary multiplicative error that runs in polynomial time in the number of nodes (which can be much smaller than the number of cutsets). In addition, our simulation results confirm that the proposed method is much faster and more accurate than the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approximating the failure frequency., Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables