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Background: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023., Methods: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths., Findings: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period., Interpretation: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures., Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests GD reports that the predecessor of the organisation he works for, Public Health England, received an unrestricted grant from GSK to undertake a study on the outcome of patients who received parenteral zanamavir. The funder received data and interim reports from Public Health England but did not influence analysis and reporting of the study. GD had no involvement in the GSK-funded study on parenteral zanamavir. Furthermore, the currently submitted work was part of the public health response activities to COVID-19 and had no relationship to GSK or the study on parenteral zanamivir. EP has received a personal grant from the Finnish Medical Foundation for PhD studies. JM declares that Public Health Scotland received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 programme for work in describing the epidemiology of COVID-19 and its impact on primary and secondary care as a partner in the IMOVE-COVID-19 project. MK declares having received consulting fees from Gilead Sciences for advising on development of a clinical module for collection of patient-reported outcome data from people living with HIV, and having received an honoraria from GESIDA for speaking at an annual conference on patient-reported outcome measures for people with HIV. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.)

Background: The emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in early 2020 and subsequent implementation of public health and social measures (PHSM) disrupted the epidemiology of respiratory viruses. This work describes the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed during two winter seasons (weeks 40-20) and inter-seasonal periods (weeks 21-39) during the pandemic between October 2020 and September 2022., Methods: Using data submitted to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) by countries or territories in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region between weeks 40/2020 and 39/2022, we aggregated country-specific weekly RSV counts of sentinel, non-sentinel and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance specimens and calculated percentage positivity. Results for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons and inter-seasons were compared with pre-pandemic 2016/17 to 2019/20 seasons and inter-seasons., Results: Although more specimens were tested than in pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons, very few RSV detections were reported during the 2020/21 season in all surveillance systems. During the 2021 inter-season, a gradual increase in detections was observed in all systems. In 2021/22, all systems saw early peaks of RSV infection, and during the 2022 inter-seasonal period, patterns of detections were closer to those seen before the COVID-19 pandemic., Conclusion: RSV surveillance continued throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with an initial reduction in transmission, followed by very high and out-of-season RSV circulation (summer 2021) and then an early start of the 2021/22 season. As of the 2022/23 season, RSV circulation had not yet normalised., Competing Interests: The following authors declare having received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI): Adam Meijer (The Netherlands) and Anne Teirlinck (The Netherlands). All other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (© 2023 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be highly effective against hospitalisation and death following COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness estimates against severe endpoints among individuals with clinical conditions that place them at increased risk of critical disease are limited., Methods: We used English primary care medical record data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network (N > 18 million). Data were linked to the National Immunisation Management Service database, Second Generation Surveillance System for virology test data, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. We estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against COVID-19 infection followed by hospitalisation and death among individuals in specific clinical risk groups using a cohort design during the delta-dominant period. We also report mortality statistics and results from our antibody surveillance in this population., Findings: aVE against severe endpoints was high, 14-69d following a third dose aVE was 96.4% (95.1%-97.4%) and 97.9% (97.2%-98.4%) for clinically vulnerable people given a Vaxzevria and Comirnaty primary course respectively. Lower aVE was observed in the immunosuppressed group: 88.6% (79.1%-93.8%) and 91.9% (85.9%-95.4%) for Vaxzevria and Comirnaty respectively. Antibody levels were significantly lower among the immunosuppressed group than those not in this risk group across all vaccination types and doses. The standardised case fatality rate within 28 days of a positive test was 3.9/1000 in people not in risk groups, compared to 12.8/1000 in clinical risk groups. Waning aVE with time since 2nd dose was also demonstrated, for example, Comirnaty aVE against hospitalisation reduced from 96.0% (95.1-96.7%) 14-69days post-dose 2-82.9% (81.4-84.2%) 182days+ post-dose 2., Interpretation: In all clinical risk groups high levels of vaccine effectiveness against severe endpoints were seen. Reduced vaccine effectiveness was noted among the immunosuppressed group., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Simon de Lusignan is the Director of the Oxford-RCGP RSC and has received funding through his University for studies from Astra-Zeneca, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, GSK, MSD. Seqirus and Takeda; and been member of advisory boards for Astra-Zeneca, Seqirus and Sanofi. Ezra Linley reports that the UKHSA Vaccine Evaluation Unit performs contract research on behalf of GSK, Sanofi and Pfizer which is outside the submitted work. FDRH is part funded by the NIHR ARC OTV and has received occasional research and consultancy funding from AZ and Pfizer but not related to vaccines., (Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) information has played a crucial role in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic by providing evidence about variants to inform public health policy. The purpose of this study was to assess the representativeness of sequenced cases compared with all COVID-19 cases in England, between March 2020 and August 2021, by demographic and socio-economic characteristics, to evaluate the representativeness and utility of these data in epidemiological analyses. To achieve this, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases were extracted from the national laboratory system and linked with WGS data. During the study period, over 10% of COVID-19 cases in England had WGS data available for epidemiological analysis. With sequencing capacity increasing throughout the period, sequencing representativeness compared to all reported COVID-19 cases increased over time, allowing for valuable epidemiological analyses using demographic and socio-economic characteristics, particularly during periods with emerging novel SARS-CoV-2 variants. This study demonstrates the comprehensiveness of England's sequencing throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, rapidly detecting variants of concern, and enabling representative epidemiological analyses to inform policy.

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are rare in children and young people (CYP). The high rates of asymptomatic and mild infections complicate assessment of cause of death in CYP. We assessed the cause of death in all CYP with a positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test since the start of the pandemic in England., Methods and Findings: CYP aged <20 years who died within 100 days of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between 01 March 2020 and 31 December 2021 in England were followed up in detail, using national databases, surveillance questionnaires, post-mortem reports, and clinician interviews. There were 185 deaths during the 22-month follow-up and 81 (43.8%) were due to COVID-19. Compared to non-COVID-19 deaths in CYP with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, death due to COVID-19 was independently associated with older age (aOR 1.06 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.11, p = 0.02) and underlying comorbidities (aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.27 to 5.01, p = 0.008), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity group, and underlying conditions, with a shorter interval between SARS-CoV-2 testing and death. Half the COVID-19 deaths (41/81, 50.6%) occurred within 7 days of confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and 91% (74/81) within 30 days. Of the COVID-19 deaths, 61 (75.3%) had an underlying condition, especially severe neurodisability (n = 27) and immunocompromising conditions (n = 12). Over the 22-month surveillance period, SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for 1.2% (81/6,790) of all deaths in CYP aged <20 years, with an infection fatality rate of 0.70/100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in this age group estimated through real-time, nowcasting modelling, and a mortality rate of 0.61/100,000. Limitations include possible under-ascertainment of deaths in CYP who were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 and lack of direct access to clinical data for hospitalised CYP., Conclusions: COVID-19 deaths remain extremely rare in CYP, with most fatalities occurring within 30 days of infection and in children with specific underlying conditions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Bertran et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: In England, the emergence the more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (B.1.1.7) led to a third national lockdown from December 2020, including restricted attendance at schools. Nurseries, however, remained fully open. COVID-19 outbreaks (≥ 2 laboratory-confirmed cases within 14 days) in nurseries were investigated to assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and cumulative incidence in staff and children over a three-month period when community SARS-CoV-2 infections rates were high and the Alpha variant was spreading rapidly across England., Methods: This was a cross-sectional national investigation of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries across England. Nurseries reporting a COVID-19 outbreak to PHE between November 2020 and January 2021 were requested to complete a questionnaire about their outbreak., Results: Three hundred and twenty-four nurseries, comprising 1% (324/32,852) of nurseries in England, reported a COVID-19 outbreak. Of the 315 (97%) nurseries contacted, 173 (55%) reported 1,657 SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 510 (31%) children and 1,147 (69%) staff. A child was the index case in 45 outbreaks (26%) and staff in 125 (72%) outbreaks. Overall, children had an incidence rate of 3.50% (95%CI, 3.21-3.81%) and was similar irrespective of whether the index case was a child (3.55%; 95%CI, 3.01-4.19%) or staff (3.44%; 95%CI, 3.10-3.82%). Among staff, cumulative incidence was lower if the index case was a child (26.28%; 95%CI, 23.54-29.21%%) compared to a staff member (32.98%; 95%CI, 31.19-34.82%), with the highest cumulative incidence when the index case was also a staff member (37.52%; 95%CI, 35.39-39.70%). Compared to November 2020, outbreak sizes and cumulative incidence was higher in January 2021, when the Alpha variant predominated. Nationally, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in < 5 year-olds remained low and followed trends in older age-groups, increasing during December 2020 and declining thereafter., Conclusions: In this cross-sectional study of COVID-19 outbreaks in nurseries, one in three staff were affected compared to one in thirty children. There was some evidence of increased transmissibility and higher cumulative incidence associated with the Alpha variant, highlighting the importance of maintaining a low level of community infections., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background COVID-19 vaccines approved in the UK are highly effective in general population cohorts, however, data on effectiveness amongst individuals with clinical conditions that place them at increased risk of severe disease are limited. Methods We used GP electronic health record data, sentinel virology swabbing and antibody testing within a cohort of 712 general practices across England to estimate vaccine antibody response and vaccine effectiveness against medically attended COVID-19 amongst individuals in clinical risk groups using cohort and test-negative case control designs. Findings There was no reduction in S-antibody positivity in most clinical risk groups, however reduced S-antibody positivity and response was significant in the immunosuppressed group. Reduced vaccine effectiveness against clinical disease was also noted in the immunosuppressed group; after a second dose, effectiveness was moderate (Pfizer: 59.6%, 95%CI 18.0-80.1%; AstraZeneca 60.0%, 95%CI -63.6-90.2%). Interpretation In most clinical risk groups, immune response to primary vaccination was maintained and high levels of vaccine effectiveness were seen. Reduced antibody response and vaccine effectiveness were seen after 1 dose of vaccine amongst a broad immunosuppressed group, and second dose vaccine effectiveness was moderate. These findings support maximising coverage in immunosuppressed individuals and the policy of prioritisation of this group for third doses., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Simon de Lusignan is the Director of the Oxford-RCGP RSC and has received funding through his University for studies from Astra-Zeneca, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, GSK, MSD. Seqirus and Takeda; and been member of advisory boards for Astra-Zeneca, Seqirus and Sanofi. Ezra Linley reports that the UKHSA Vaccine Evaluation Unit performs contract research on behalf of GSK, Sanofi and Pfizer which is outside the submitted work., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

BackgroundThe emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in England coincided with a rapid increase in the number of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas where the variant was concentrated.AimOur aim was to assess whether infection with Alpha was associated with more severe clinical outcomes than the wild type.MethodsLaboratory-confirmed infections with genomically sequenced SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and wild type between October and December 2020 were linked to routine healthcare and surveillance datasets. We conducted two statistical analyses to compare the risk of hospital admission and death within 28 days of testing between Alpha and wild-type infections: a matched cohort study and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model. We assessed differences in disease severity by comparing hospital admission and mortality, including length of hospitalisation and time to death.ResultsOf 63,609 COVID-19 cases sequenced in England between October and December 2020, 6,038 had the Alpha variant. In the matched cohort analysis, we matched 2,821 cases with Alpha to 2,821 to cases with wild type. In the time-to-event analysis, we observed a 34% increased risk in hospitalisation associated with Alpha compared with wild type, but no significant difference in the risk of mortality.ConclusionWe found evidence of increased risk of hospitalisation after adjusting for key confounders, suggesting increased infection severity associated with the Alpha variant. Rapid assessments of the relative morbidity in terms of clinical outcomes and mortality associated with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants compared with dominant variants are required to assess overall impact of SARS-CoV-2 mutations.

BackgroundHouseholds appear to be the highest risk setting for COVID-19 transmission. Large household transmission studies in the early stages of the pandemic in Asia reported secondary attack rates ranging from 5 to 30%.AimWe aimed to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in household and community settings in the UK.MethodsA prospective case-ascertained study design based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol was undertaken in the UK following the detection of the first case in late January 2020. Household contacts of cases were followed using enhanced surveillance forms to establish whether they developed symptoms of COVID-19, became confirmed cases and their outcomes. We estimated household secondary attack rates (SAR), serial intervals and individual and household basic reproduction numbers. The incubation period was estimated using known point source exposures that resulted in secondary cases.ResultsWe included 233 households with two or more people with 472 contacts. The overall household SAR was 37% (95% CI: 31-43%) with a mean serial interval of 4.67 days, an R 0 of 1.85 and a household reproduction number of 2.33. SAR were lower in larger households and highest when the primary case was younger than 18 years. We estimated a mean incubation period of around 4.5 days.ConclusionsRates of COVID-19 household transmission were high in the UK for ages above and under 18 years, emphasising the need for preventative measures in this setting. This study highlights the importance of the FFX protocol in providing early insights on transmission dynamics.

Objectives: To measure secondary attack rates (SARs) in prospectively followed household contacts of paediatric and adult cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England., Methods: Self-taken nasal swabs from household contacts of PCR confirmed cases of COVID-19  and blood samples  on day 35 were tested for evidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus., Results: The secondary attack rate (SAR) among 431 contacts of 172 symptomatic index cases  was 33% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 25-40) and was lower from primary cases without respiratory symptoms, 6% (CI 0-14) vs 37% (CI 29-45), p = 0.030. The SAR from index cases <11 years  was  25% (CI 12-38). SARs ranged from 16% (4-28) in contacts <11 years old to 36% (CI 28-45) in contacts aged 19-54 years (p = 0.119). The proportion infected who developed symptoms (78%) was similar by age (p = 0.44) though <19 year olds had fewer mean number of symptoms than adults (p = 0.001) and fewer reported loss of sense of taste or smell (p = 0.0001)., Conclusions: There are high risks of  transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus in the home, including those where infection is introduced by a child. The risk of children acquiring infection was lower than that in adults and fewer developed typical symptoms of Covid-19 infection., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors have declared no competing interest.  SdeL is the Director of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance, and hold a grant from AstraZeneca both funded through his university., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Introduction: The reopening of schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has raised concern for the safety of staff and students, their families and the wider community. We monitored SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in school-aged children and compared them with adult infection rates before and after schools reopened in England., Methods: Public Health England receives daily electronic reports of all SARS-CoV-2 tests nationally. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates by school year from July to December 2020 were analysed, including the effect of a national month-long lockdown whilst keeping schools open in November 2020 RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 infections rates were low during early summer but started increasing in mid-August, initially in young adults followed by secondary and then primary school-aged children prior to schools reopening in September 2020. Cases in school-aged children lagged behind and followed adult trends after schools reopened, with a strong age gradient in weekly infection rates. There was a strong (P<0.001) correlation in regional infection rates between adults and secondary (R 2 =0.96-0.98), primary (R 2 =0.93-0.94) and preschool-aged (R 2 =0.62-0.85) children. The November lockdown was associated with declines in adult infection rates, followed a week later, by declines in student cases. From 23 November 2020, cases in adults and children increased rapidly following the emergence of a more transmissible novel variant of concern (VOC-202,012/01; B.1.1.7)., Conclusions: In school-aged children, SARS-CoV-2 infections followed the same trajectory as adult cases and only declined after national lockdown was implemented whilst keeping schools open. Maintaining low community infection rates is critical for keeping schools open during the pandemic., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest We declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objective: To describe the clinical presentation, course of disease and health-care seeking behaviour of the first few hundred cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland., Methods: We implemented the World Health Organization's First Few X cases and contacts investigation protocol for COVID-19. Trained public health professionals collected information on 381 virologically confirmed COVID-19 cases from 31 January 2020 to 9 April 2020. We actively followed up cases to identify exposure to infection, symptoms and outcomes. We also collected limited data on 752 symptomatic people testing negative for COVID-19, as a control group for analyses of the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of symptoms., Findings: Approximately half of the COVID-19 cases were imported (196 cases; 51.4%), of whom the majority had recent travel to Italy (140 cases; 71.4%). Of the 94 (24.7%) secondary cases, almost all reported close contact with a confirmed case (93 cases; 98.9%), many through household contact (37 cases; 39.8%). By age, a lower proportion of children had COVID-19. Most cases presented with cough, fever and fatigue. The sensitivity and specificity of symptoms varied by age, with nonlinear relationships with age. Although the proportion of COVID-19 cases with fever increased with age, for those with other respiratory infections the occurrence of fever decreased with age. The occurrence of shortness of breath also increased with age in a greater proportion of COVID-19 cases., Conclusion: The study has provided useful evidence for generating case definitions and has informed modelling studies of the likely burden of COVID-19., ((c) 2021 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

Objectives: To assess disease trends, testing practices, community surveillance, case-fatality and excess deaths in children as compared with adults during the first pandemic peak in England., Setting: England., Participants: Children with COVID-19 between January and May 2020., Main Outcome Measures: Trends in confirmed COVID-19 cases, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positivity rates in children compared with adults; community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children with acute respiratory infection (ARI) compared with adults, case-fatality rate in children with confirmed COVID-19 and excess childhood deaths compared with the previous 5 years., Results: Children represented 1.1% (1,408/129,704) of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases between 16 January 2020 and 3 May 2020. In total, 540 305 people were tested for SARS-COV-2 and 129,704 (24.0%) were positive. In children aged <16 years, 35,200 tests were performed and 1408 (4.0%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, compared to 19.1%-34.9% adults. Childhood cases increased from mid-March and peaked on 11 April before declining. Among 2,961 individuals presenting with ARI in primary care, 351 were children and 10 (2.8%) were positive compared with 9.3%-45.5% in adults. Eight children died and four (case-fatality rate, 0.3%; 95% CI 0.07% to 0.7%) were due to COVID-19. We found no evidence of excess mortality in children., Conclusions: Children accounted for a very small proportion of confirmed cases despite the large numbers of children tested. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was low even in children with ARI. Our findings provide further evidence against the role of children in infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has passed its first peak in Europe., Aim: To describe the mortality in England and its association with SARS-CoV-2 status and other demographic and risk factors., Design and Setting: Cross-sectional analyses of people with known SARS-CoV-2 status in the Oxford RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network., Method: Pseudonymised, coded clinical data were uploaded from volunteer general practice members of this nationally representative network ( n = 4 413 734). All-cause mortality was compared with national rates for 2019, using a relative survival model, reporting relative hazard ratios (RHR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A multivariable adjusted odds ratios (OR) analysis was conducted for those with known SARS-CoV-2 status ( n = 56 628, 1.3%) including multiple imputation and inverse probability analysis, and a complete cases sensitivity analysis., Results: Mortality peaked in week 16. People living in households of ≥9 had a fivefold increase in relative mortality (RHR = 5.1, 95% CI = 4.87 to 5.31, P <0.0001). The ORs of mortality were 8.9 (95% CI = 6.7 to 11.8, P <0.0001) and 9.7 (95% CI = 7.1 to 13.2, P <0.0001) for virologically and clinically diagnosed cases respectively, using people with negative tests as reference. The adjusted mortality for the virologically confirmed group was 18.1% (95% CI = 17.6 to 18.7). Male sex, population density, black ethnicity (compared to white), and people with long-term conditions, including learning disability (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.22 to 3.18, P = 0.0056) had higher odds of mortality., Conclusion: The first SARS-CoV-2 peak in England has been associated with excess mortality. Planning for subsequent peaks needs to better manage risk in males, those of black ethnicity, older people, people with learning disabilities, and people who live in multi-occupancy dwellings., (©The Authors.)

Objectives: Few studies report contributors to the excess mortality in England during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. We report the absolute excess risk (AER) of mortality and excess mortality rate (EMR) from a nationally representative COVID-19 sentinel surveillance network including known COVID-19 risk factors in people aged 45 years and above., Methods: Pseudonymised, coded clinical data were uploaded from contributing primary care providers (N = 1,970,314, ≥45years). We calculated the AER in mortality by comparing mortality for weeks 2 to 20 this year with mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from 2018 for the same weeks. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis including preselected variables. We report AER and EMR, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)., Results: The AER of mortality was 197.8/10,000 person years (95%CI:194.30-201.40). The EMR for male gender, compared with female, was 1.4 (95%CI:1.35-1.44, p<0.00); for our oldest age band (≥75 years) 10.09 (95%CI:9.46-10.75, p<0.00) compared to 45-64 year olds; Black ethnicity's EMR was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.03-1.33, p<0.02), reference white; and for dwellings with ≥9 occupants 8.01 (95%CI: 9.46-10.75, p<0.00). Presence of all included comorbidities significantly increased EMR. Ranked from lowest to highest these were: hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic respiratory and heart disease, and cancer or immunocompromised., Conclusions: The absolute excess mortality was approximately 2 deaths per 100 person years in the first wave of COVID-19. More personalised shielding advice for any second wave should include ethnicity, comorbidity and household size as predictors of risk., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest SdeL is the director of RCGP RSC. He has unrelated projects funded by GSK, Seqirus and has been a member of Global Advisory Boards for Seqirus and Sanofi., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected  ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.

BackgroundIn the United Kingdom (UK), in recent influenza seasons, children are offered a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4), and eligible adults mainly trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV).AimTo estimate the UK end-of-season 2017/18 adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) and the seroprevalence in England of antibodies against influenza viruses cultured in eggs or tissue.MethodsThis observational study employed the test-negative case-control approach to estimate aVE in primary care. The population-based seroprevalence survey used residual age-stratified samples.ResultsInfluenza viruses A(H3N2) (particularly subgroup 3C.2a2) and B (mainly B/Yamagata/16/88-lineage, similar to the quadrivalent vaccine B-virus component but mismatched to TIV) dominated. All-age aVE was 15% (95% confidence interval (CI): -6.3 to 32) against all influenza; -16.4% (95% CI: -59.3 to 14.9) against A(H3N2); 24.7% (95% CI: 1.1 to 42.7) against B and 66.3% (95% CI: 33.4 to 82.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For 2-17 year olds, LAIV4 aVE was 26.9% (95% CI: -32.6 to 59.7) against all influenza; -75.5% (95% CI: -289.6 to 21) against A(H3N2); 60.8% (95% CI: 8.2 to 83.3) against B and 90.3% (95% CI: 16.4 to 98.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For ≥ 18 year olds, TIV aVE against influenza B was 1.9% (95% CI: -63.6 to 41.2). The 2017 seroprevalence of antibody recognising tissue-grown A(H3N2) virus was significantly lower than that recognising egg-grown virus in all groups except 15-24 year olds.ConclusionsOverall aVE was low driven by no effectiveness against A(H3N2) possibly related to vaccine virus egg-adaption and a new A(H3N2) subgroup emergence. The TIV was not effective against influenza B. LAIV4 against influenza B and A(H1N1)pdm09 was effective.

BackgroundIn 2016/17, seasonal influenza vaccine was less effective in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom. We describe the uptake, influenza-associated mortality and adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) in this age group over influenza seasons 2010/11-2016/17. Methods: Vaccine uptake in 2016/17 and five previous seasons were measured using a sentinel general practitioners cohort in England; the test-negative case-control design was used to estimate pooled aVE by subtype and age group against laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care from 2010-2017. Results: Vaccine uptake was 64% in 65-69-year-olds, 74% in 70-74-year-olds and 80% in those aged 75 and older. Overall aVE was 32.5% (95% CI: 11.6 to 48.5); aVE by sub-type was 60.8% (95% CI: 33.9 to 76.7) and 50.0% (95% CI: 21.6 to 68.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, respectively, but only 5.6% (95% CI: - 39.2 to 35.9) against A(H3N2). Against all laboratory-confirmed influenza aVE was 45.2% (95% CI: 25.1 to 60.0) in 65-74 year olds; - 26.2% (95% CI: - 149.3 to 36.0) in 75-84 year olds and - 3.2% (95% CI: - 237.8 to 68.5) in those aged 85 years and older. Influenza-attributable mortality was highest in seasons dominated by A(H3N2). Conclusions: Vaccine uptake with non-adjuvanted, normal-dose vaccines remained high, with evidence of effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B, though poor against A(H3N2), particularly in those aged 75 years and older. Forthcoming availability of newly licensed vaccines with wider use of antivirals can potentially further improve prevention and control of influenza in this group.

IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

Background: The incidence of Blunt Carotid Artery and Vertebral Artery Injury (BCVI) is relatively low in modern trauma practice. However, these injuries may be associated with severe neurological consequences. Following the introduction of a Diagnostic Imaging Pathway in Department of Health of Western Australia, we hypothesized that this injury would be less likely to be missed, and accordingly diagnosed more frequently., Method: A review of all major trauma (Injury Severity Scale>15) admissions at the State Major Trauma Centre in Royal Perth Hospital was undertaken from 1995 until 2013. BCVI was identified from the hospital's trauma registry. The medical records of these patients were then reviewed., Result: 58 of 7451 (0.78%) major trauma patients were diagnosed of BCVI during the study period. An increased incidence, from 0.52% (20/3880) to 1.06% (38/3571), was seen after the introduction of the Diagnostic Imaging Pathway in 2007 (p=0.010). The majority of the cases were caused by motor vehicle crashes, with 66% (n=38) of the cases sustaining concomitant head or cervical spine injury. Other commonly associated injuries included chest, extremity and thoracic spine injury., Conclusion: Our study reports a significant increase in the diagnosis of BCVI among major traumas after the introduction of a Diagnostic Imaging Pathway for the screening of this injury in 2007. The previously low incidence of BCVI compared with other centres' reports indicated possible previous under-screening and diagnosis of this injury., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start., (This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.)

The United Kingdom is introducing a universal annual influenza vaccination programme for children. Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalisation in 2 to 6 year-olds in England was measured in 2015/16 using the screening method. VE adjusted for age, geography and month was 54.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 31.5% to 68.4%) for all influenza types combined; 48.3% (95% CI: 16.9% to 67.8%) for A(H1N1)pdm09 and 70.6% (95% CI: 33.2% to 87.1%) for B. The findings support on-going programme roll-out., (This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.)

Background/aim: Data suggest aspirin improves survival in colorectal cancer (CRC) harbouring PIK3CA mutations. The impact of aspirin is thought predominantly to be through an anti-inflammatory effect. The aim of this study is to explore the effect of aspirin use on survival in a real-world cohort of stage 2 colon cancer (CC) patients., Methods: A prospective CRC database identified patients diagnosed with stage 2 CC between 2000 and 2011. PIK3CA mutation status was determined by next generation sequencing. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio greater than 5 at diagnosis represented systemic inflammation. Chart review was used to record regular aspirin use at diagnosis. Clinico-pathological features and survival data were available. Survival analyses used the Cox proportional hazards method., Results: Of 488 patients with stage 2 CC, 95 patients were aspirin users and 70 patients had PIK3CA mutations. Aspirin users were more likely to be older (median: 76.4 years vs 68.3 years, P < 0.001), to be less fit (American Society of Anaesthetists Score 3-4: 58% vs 31%, P < 0.001) and to have systemic inflammation (neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 5: 39% vs 27%, P = 0.027). Regular aspirin use did not significantly improve recurrence-free survival. In the PIK3CA mutated group, there was a trend towards improved recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio: 0.45, P = 0.42)., Conclusions: Our study did not demonstrate a significant survival advantage from aspirin use in stage 2 PIK3CA mutated CC. The 'real-world' nature of our cohort and the subsequent uncontrolled differences in age and fitness in aspirin users are likely to have contributed to this result. Defining the true impact of aspirin in CRC requires prospective randomised clinical trials., (© 2016 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season's adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0-61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6-64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1-68.6) against influenza B. In 2-17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6-94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: -8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17., Competing Interests: MD declares lecture fees and travel grant/ conference fees from Sanofi-Pasteur MSD in 2016; SdeL declares no direct conflict of interest, however University of Surrey has received grant funding from two Innovative Medicine Initiatives programmes ADVANCE (SdeL is a work package lead) and FLUCOP. Surrey has also received grant funding from GSK to explore the feasibility of collecting European Medicine Agency listed influenza brand-specific side effects in near real time, SdeL is PI., (This article is copyright of The Authors, 2016.)

Bone and soft-tissue sarcomas are rare and heterogeneous malignancies arising from tissues of mesenchymal origin. Treatment planning is informed by accurate diagnosis for which biopsy is the diagnostic standard. Biopsy in the setting of suspected malignancy is a technically challenging procedure that should only be performed at specialist institutions. Without the requisite expertise, they can compromise the viability of reconstructive procedures and may make necessary amputation to achieve adequate surgical margins. The risk of complications arising from the procedure must be minimized and therefore biopsy should always be preceded by imaging. There must be no attempt at biopsy or excision prior to referral if there is any suspicion of malignancy. Patients with suspected bone and soft-tissue tumours are best evaluated and treated at specialist sarcoma centres under the care of expert multidisciplinary teams. Prompt referral to a specialist sarcoma centre should always be made prior to biopsy for any suspicious mass that is painful, progressively increasing in size, greater than 5 cm in diameter, deep to deep fascia or recurs following inadvertent excision., (© 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.)

In Stage II colon cancer, multiple independent studies have shown that a dense intratumoural immune infiltrate (local inflammation) is associated with improved outcomes, while systemic inflammation, measured by various markers, has been associated with poorer outcomes. However, previous studies have not considered the interaction between local and systemic inflammation, nor have they assessed the type of inflammatory response compared with standard clinicopathologic criteria. In order to evaluate the potential clinical utility of inflammatory markers in Stage II colon cancer, we examined local and systemic inflammation in a consecutive series of patients with resected Stage II colon cancer between 2000 and 2010 who were identified from a prospective clinical database. Increased intratumoural chronic inflammatory cell (CIC) density, as assessed by pathologist review of hematoxylin and eosin stained slides, was used to represent local inflammation. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >5, as calculated from pre-operative full blood counts, was used to represent systemic inflammation. In 396 eligible patients identified, there was a non-significant inverse relationship between local and systemic inflammation. Increased CIC density was significantly associated with improved overall (HR 0.45, p = 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (HR 0.37, p = 0.003). High NLR was significantly associated with poorer overall survival (HR 2.56, p < 0.001). The combination of these markers further stratified prognosis independent of standard high-risk criteria, with a dominant systemic inflammatory response (low CIC/high NLR) associated with the worst outcome (5-year overall survival 55.8%). With further validation this simple, inexpensive combined inflammatory biomarker might assist in patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in Stage II colon cancer., (© 2015 UICC.)

In 2015/16, the influenza season in the United Kingdom was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Virus characterisation indicated the emergence of genetic clusters, with the majority antigenically similar to the current influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain. Mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates show an adjusted VE of 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-64.7) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultations and of 49.1% (95% CI: 9.3-71.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates show levels of protection similar to the 2010/11 season, when this strain was first used in the seasonal vaccine.

Background: The true survival benefit of noncurative primary tumor resection in patients with de novo metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) remains uncertain. The present study examined the effect of primary tumor resection on systemic inflammation and survival in patients with mCRC., Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients with de novo mCRC who had undergone primary tumor resection were identified from a prospective database. Patients were excluded if they had undergone resection of metastases, had undergone delayed primary resection, or if blood samples were unavailable. The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was used as a biomarker of systemic inflammation. Overall survival (OS) was compared between patient groups according to the pre- and postprimary resection NLR. The associations between the reversal of an elevated NLR and primary tumor bulk or performance status were explored., Results: A total of 145 eligible patients were identified from the database, with a median age of 70 years. The baseline NLR was elevated (> 5) in 65 patients, 36 (55%) of whom had a low NLR after surgery. The reversal of an elevated NLR was associated with significantly improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.53; P = .017). A similar benefit was seen after excluding patients undergoing emergency primary resection. NLR reversal was more frequent in patients with larger primary tumors or good performance status., Conclusion: The present study is the first to demonstrate a relationship between the reversal of a systemic inflammatory response and the improved survival after primary resection in those with mCRC. A greater effect was seen in patients with large primary tumors. If validated, these observations could guide clinical decision-making in patients with mCRC at presentation., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)