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Population dynamics of migratory species are influenced by land use and climate patterns experienced across the full annual cycle. Identifying environmental factors influencing productivity, survival, and their relative contributions to abundance and population growth is critical for the recovery and management of at‐risk species in the face of continuing global change. The golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered passerine that breeds exclusively in the mixed Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)–oak (Quercus) woodlands of Central Texas, USA, and winters at high elevations in Central America. We evaluated the effects of precipitation, climate, and land cover on golden‐cheeked warbler productivity, adult male survival, and territory abundance using data from a long‐term monitoring site, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, in Austin, Texas. We jointly analyzed annual productivity, mark–recapture, and territory count data collected on 10 plots from 2011 to 2019 in an integrated population model. The number of young fledged per male territory was negatively related to percent urban land cover within 1 km of monitoring plots, and adult male survival was negatively related to a strong El Niño event. Estimates of population growth and abundance indicated a decline in abundance across our study period. We forecasted population viability 25 years into the future given increases in urban development and frequency of El Niño events. Quasi‐extinction probability increased from 0.17 under current urban land cover conditions and El Niño frequency to 0.41 under the scenario of a 10% increase in urban development around all plots and an increase in El Niño frequency. Productivity and adult survival were positively correlated with population growth, highlighting the need for conservation and management actions to maximize these vital rates on the breeding grounds and range‐wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective species conservation requires understanding environmental effects on stage-specific demographics driving population change. Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) is an early-successional shrub-obligate species that has experienced long-term, range-wide declines due to fire suppression, agricultural intensification, and sprawling development. Local habitat features and landscape context may interactively influence vital rates. Management affects food, cover, and other resources available locally, while surrounding landscapes often determine degree of isolation and predator communities. We evaluated relationships between juvenile bobwhite survival and local (50 m) and landscape (1 km) scale cover type composition and grassland management (i.e. conservation grazing, prescribed burns, mowing/ haying) on 3 native grasslands and 2 traditionally managed conservation areas in southwest Missouri, USA, 2016-2018. We radio-tracked brood-attending adults and young from hatch to a maximum of 114 days and estimated juvenile survival with a Bayesian known-fate logistic exposure model. Juvenile survival was greatest on native grasslands that were burned and grazed at least once in the previous 2 years. Percent shrub cover was positively related to survival. Survival was relatively high in local agriculture, but these relationships were sensitive to surrounding landscape composition. For example, small patches of cropland surrounded by nonagriculture such as strip crops surrounded by grassland units on traditionally managed sites had low survival. Relationships between survival and agricultural landscape cover were dependent on local cover types; survival was high within crop fields but low in non-native grasslands surrounded by crop fields such as agricultural field borders. Patch-burn grazing practices on native grasslands provided the best habitat for bobwhite juvenile survival. Agricultural landscapes can support the recruitment of bobwhite if appropriately managed native grasslands are also available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]