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2. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Author

Edwards, Tamsin L, Nowicki, Sophie, Marzeion, Ben, Hock, Regine, Goelzer, Heiko, Seroussi, Hélène, Jourdain, Nicolas C, Slater, Donald A, Turner, Fiona E, Smith, Christopher J, McKenna, Christine M, Simon, Erika, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Gregory, Jonathan M, Larour, Eric, Lipscomb, William H, Payne, Antony J, Shepherd, Andrew, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Anderson, Brian, Asay-Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bliss, Andrew, Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Champollion, Nicolas, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Fujita, Koji, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Huss, Matthias, Huybrechts, Philippe, Immerzeel, Walter, Kleiner, Thomas, Kraaijenbrink, Philip, Le clec’h, Sébastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter R, Little, Christopher M, Lowry, Daniel P, Malles, Jan-Hendrik, Martin, Daniel F, Maussion, Fabien, Morlighem, Mathieu, O’Neill, James F, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F, Quiquet, Aurélien, Radić, Valentina, Reese, Ronja, Rounce, David R, Rückamp, Martin, Sakai, Akiko, Shafer, Courtney, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Shannon, Sarah, Smith, Robin S, Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D, Van Breedam, Jonas, van de Wal, Roderik, van den Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zekollari, Harry, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong, and Zwinger, Thomas

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Climate Action, General Science & Technology
Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Published
2021

3. A Frontal Ablation Dataset for 49 Tidewater Glaciers in Greenland

Author

Fahrner, Dominik, primary, Slater, Donald, additional, KC, Aman, additional, Cenedese, Claudia, additional, Sutherland, David A., additional, Enderlin, Ellyn, additional, de Jong, Femke, additional, Kjeldsen, Kristian K., additional, Wood, Michael, additional, Nienow, Peter, additional, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, and Wagner, Till, additional

Published
2023
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5. Modelling submarine melting at tidewater glaciers in Greenland

Author

Slater, Donald Alexander, Nienow, Peter, and Goldberg, Daniel

Subjects
Greenland ice sheet, submarine melting, ice-ocean interaction, plume, tidewater glacier, fjord
Abstract

The recent thinning, acceleration and retreat of tidewater glaciers around Greenland suggests that these systems are highly sensitive to a change in climate. Tidewater glacier dynamics have already had a significant impact on global sea level, and, given projected future climate warming, will likely continue to do so over the coming century. Understanding of the processes connecting climatic change to tidewater glacier response is, however, at an early stage. Current leading thinking links tidewater glacier change to ocean warming by submarine melting of glacier calving fronts, yet the process of submarine melting remains poorly understood. This thesis combines modelling and field data to investigate submarine melting at tidewater glaciers, ultimately seeking to constrain the sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to climate change. Submarine melting is thought to be enhanced where subglacial runoff enters the ocean and drives energetic ice-marginal plumes. In this thesis, two contrasting models are used to examine the dynamics of these plumes; the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and the simpler buoyant plume theory (BPT). The first result of this thesis, obtained with the MITgcm, is that the spatial distribution of subglacial runoff at the grounding line of a tidewater glacier is a key control on the rate and spatial distribution of submarine melting. Focussed subglacial runoff induces rapid but localised melting, while diffuse runoff induces slower but spatially homogeneous melting. Furthermore, for the same subglacial runoff, total ablation by submarine melting from diffuse runoff exceeds that from focussed runoff by at least a factor of five. BPT is then used to examine the relationship between plume-induced submarine melting and key physical parameters, such as plume geometry, fjord stratification, and the magnitude of subglacial runoff. It is shown that submarine melt rate is proportional to the magnitude of subglacial runoff raised to the exponent of 1/3, regardless of plume geometry, provided runoff lies below a critical threshold and the fjord is weakly stratified. Above the runoff threshold and for strongly stratified fjords, the exponent respectively decreases and increases. The obtained relationships are combined into a single parameterisation thereby providing a useful first-order estimate of submarine melt rate with potential for incorporation into predictive ice flow models. Having investigated many of the factors affecting submarine melt rate, this thesis turns to the effect of melting on tidewater glacier dynamics and calving processes. Specifically, feedbacks between submarine melting and calving front shape are evaluated by coupling BPT to a dynamic ice-ocean boundary which evolves according to modelled submarine melt rates. In agreement with observations, the model shows calving fronts becoming undercut by submarine melting, but hints at a critical role for subglacial channels in this process. The total ablation by submarine melting increases with the degree of undercutting due to increased ice-ocean surface area. It is suggested that the relative pace of undercutting versus ice velocity may define the dominant calving style at a tidewater glacier. Finally, comparison of plumes modelled in both MITgcm and BPT with those observed at Kangiata Nunata Sermia (KNS), a large tidewater glacier in south-west Greenland, suggests that subglacial runoff at KNS is often diffuse in nature. In addition to the above implications for submarine melting, diffuse drainage may enhance basal sliding during warmer summers, thereby providing a potential link between increasing atmospheric temperature and tidewater glacier acceleration which does not invoke the role of the ocean. This thesis provides a comprehensive investigation and quantification of the factors affecting submarine melting at tidewater glaciers, a complex process that is believed to be one of the key influences on the current and future stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Based on the magnitude of modelled melt rates, and their effect on calving front shape, the process of submarine melting is a likely driver of retreat at slower-flowing tidewater glaciers in Greenland. For melting to influence the largest and fastest-flowing glaciers requires invoking a sensitive coupling between melting and calving which is as yet obscure. It should however be noted that modelled melt rates depend critically on parameters which are poorly constrained. The results and parameterisations developed in this thesis should now be taken forward through testing against field observations - which are currently rare - and, from a modelling perspective, coupling with ice flow models to provide a more complete picture of the interaction of the Greenland Ice Sheet with the ocean.

Published
2017

6. Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers.

Author

Hager, Alexander O., Sutherland, David A., and Slater, Donald A.

Subjects
ABLATION (Glaciology), CLIMATE change models, GLACIERS, ALPINE glaciers, GENERAL circulation model, TIDE-waters, GREENLAND ice, ICE sheets
Abstract

Frontal ablation has caused 32 %–66 % of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss since 1972, and despite its importance in driving terminus change, ocean thermal forcing remains crudely incorporated into large-scale ice sheet models. In Greenland, local fjord-scale processes modify the magnitude of thermal forcing at the ice–ocean boundary but are too small scale to be resolved in current global climate models. For example, simulations used in the Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) to predict future ice sheet change rely on the extrapolation of regional ocean water properties into fjords to drive terminus ablation. However, the accuracy of this approach has not previously been tested due to the scarcity of observations in Greenland fjords, as well as the inability of fjord-scale models to realistically incorporate icebergs. By employing the recently developed IceBerg package within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), we here evaluate the ability of ocean thermal forcing parameterizations to predict thermal forcing at tidewater glacier termini. This is accomplished through sensitivity experiments using a set of idealized Greenland fjords, each forced with equivalent ocean boundary conditions but with varying tidal amplitudes, subglacial discharge, iceberg coverage, and bathymetry. Our results indicate that the bathymetric obstruction of external water is the primary control on near-glacier thermal forcing, followed by iceberg submarine melting. Despite identical ocean boundary conditions, we find that the simulated fjord processes can modify grounding line thermal forcing by as much as 3 °C , the magnitude of which is largely controlled by the relative depth of bathymetric sills to the Polar Water–Atlantic Water thermocline. However, using a common adjustment for fjord bathymetry we can still predict grounding line thermal forcing within 0.2 °C in our simulations. Finally, we introduce new parameterizations that additionally account for iceberg-driven cooling that can accurately predict interior fjord thermal forcing profiles both in iceberg-laden simulations and in observations from Kangiata Sullua (Ilulissat Icefjord). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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7. A Frontal Ablation Dataset for 49 Tidewater Glaciers in Greenland.

Author

Fahrner, Dominik, Slater, Donald, K. C., Aman, Cenedese, Claudia, Sutherland, David A., Enderlin, Ellyn, de Jong, Femke, Kjeldsen, Kristian K., Wood, Michael, Nienow, Peter, Nowicki, Sophie, and Wagner, Till

Subjects
*ABLATION (Glaciology), *GLACIERS, *TIDE-waters, *ICE calving, *ICE sheets
Abstract

Frontal ablation at tidewater glaciers, which comprises iceberg calving, submarine and subaerial melting, is a key boundary condition for numerical ice sheet models but remains difficult to measure directly in-situ. Many previous studies have quantified frontal ablation over varying spatio-temporal scales, however most use ice discharge as an approximation for frontal ablation, thereby neglecting the influence of terminus location change. Frontal ablation estimates that do account for terminus location change are spatio-temporally limited by the availability of observational data. Here, we present a processing chain to quantify frontal ablation using open-source observational data. We apply the processing chain to 49 tidewater glaciers in Greenland with reliable near-terminus bathymetry data in the BedMachine V4 dataset. Nearterminus volume change over the time period 1987 - 2020 is determined using a previously published dataset of terminus positions (TermPicks), ice thicknesses from ArcticDEM and AeroDEM, adjusted for surface elevation change over time, and bathymetry data from BedMachine v4. Assuming a vertical terminus geometry and uniform ice density, we estimate frontal ablation as the difference between mass flux towards the terminus (Mankoff et al., 2020) and mass change between consecutive observation. The frontal ablation dataset offers exciting opportunities for developing new insights into ice dynamics, including helping to improve numerical model hindcasting and projections. Lastly, we provide a processing chain that may serve as a community standard for determining frontal ablation from observational data for any tidewater glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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8. From the large-scale ocean to the glacier margins: What controls the ocean temperature in SE Greenland's glacial fjords?

Author

Straneo, Fiammetta, Slater, Donald, Holte, James, and Snow, Tasha

Abstract

Increased ocean-driven melting of Greenland’s marine terminating glaciers is identified as a trigger of glacier retreat and dynamic ice loss from the ice sheet over the last few decades. The increasing melt rates, in turn, have been loosely attributed to a warming of the North Atlantic’s subpolar gyre during a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Limited data records from the fjords, however, mean that this hypothesis is largely untested. Here we use a 12 year record of properties from Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland, and the nearby shelf, combined with historical ocean and atmosphere, and remote sensing data, to show that property changes inside the fjord are not simply related to the heat content of the North Atlantic’s subpolar gyre or the NAO phase. Instead, we show that fjord properties are directly related to properties on the nearby continental shelf which, in turn, vary as a result of the regional wind-stress and export from the Arctic Ocean. The implication of these findings for reconstructing the variability of melt rates at the glaciers’ margins back in time will be discussed.&nbsp, The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

Published
2023

12. Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Author

von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Minière, Audrey, additional, Gues, Flora, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Ablain, Michaël, additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Barker, Paul M., additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Blazquez, Alejandro, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Church, John, additional, Desbruyeres, Damien, additional, Dolman, Han, additional, Domingues, Catia M., additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Giglio, Donata, additional, Gilson, John E., additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hakuba, Maria Z., additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hosoda, Shigeki, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, King, Brian, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, additional, Korosov, Anton, additional, Krinner, Gerhard, additional, Kuusela, Mikael, additional, Landerer, Felix W., additional, Langer, Moritz, additional, Lavergne, Thomas, additional, Lawrence, Isobel, additional, Li, Yuehua, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marti, Florence, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, MacDougall, Andrew H., additional, McDougall, Trevor, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Nitzbon, Jan, additional, Otosaka, Inès, additional, Peng, Jian, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Sato, Kanako, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Savita, Abhishek, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Simons, Leon, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Slater, Thomas, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Suga, Toshio, additional, Szekely, Tanguy, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Vanderkelen, Inne, additional, Wjiffels, Susan E., additional, Wu, Tonghua, additional, and Zemp, Michael, additional

Published
2023
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14. Ice-Ocean Melt: Future Research Directions

Author

McCormack, Felicity, Cook, Sue, Phillips, Sienna, Adusumilli, Susheel, Hattermann, Tore, Nakayama, Yoshihiro, Nias, Isabel, Seroussi, Hélène, Slater, Donald, Begeman, Carolyn, Goldberg, Dan, Jackson, Rebecca, Jenkins, Adrian, Jourdain, Nicolas, Rosevear, Madelaine, Vaňková, Irena, and Wåhlin, Anna

Subjects
glaciers, ice sheet, ice-ocean interactions
Abstract

Report on the first JCIOIworkshop on ice-ocean interactions (17-19th October 2022). The Joint Commission on Ice-Ocean Interactions (JCIOI) was formed in 2021 as an IUGG joint working group between the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO). JCIOI held its first workshop in October 2022, aiming to: (1) identify critical knowledge gaps surrounding processes that govern ocean-driven melt of ice sheets across a range of spatio-temporal scales; (2) identify options to address these knowledge gaps through observing, parameterizing, and modeling ice-ocean interactions, and their impacts on ice mass loss and ocean dynamics; and (3) bring together the community interested in ice-ocean interactions. This Report provides a synopsis of the workshop activities. We first summarize the solicited talks in each of the four themed sessions, describing the current state of knowledge of (i) the physics of the ice-ocean boundary, (ii) the role of glacial melt in the wider ocean, (iii) the impact of ocean-driven melt on glacier and ice sheet mass balance, and (iv) new and emerging technologies for studying ice-ocean interactions. On the basis of these talks, and from the discussion sessions which followed, we then discuss community-defined key future research directions in ice-ocean interactions research. As part of this discussion, we highlight the need for an internationally-coordinated approach to tackle this complex problem.

Published
2023
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18. Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: Where does the energy go?

Author

von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Minère, Audrey, additional, Gues, Flora, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Allan, Richard, additional, Barker, Paul M., additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Church, John, additional, Desbruyeres, Damien, additional, Dolman, Han, additional, Domingues, Catia M., additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Giglio, Donata, additional, Gilson, John E., additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hosoda, Shigeki, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, King, Brian, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nikolas, additional, Korosov, Anton, additional, Krinner, Gerhard, additional, Kuusela, Mikael, additional, Langer, Moritz, additional, Lavergne, Thomas, additional, Lawrence, Isobel, additional, Li, Yuehua, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, MacDougall, Andrew H., additional, McDougall, Trevor, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Nitzbon, Jan, additional, Otosaka, Inès, additional, Peng, Jian, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Sato, Kanako, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Savita, Abhishek, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Simons, Leon, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Slater, Thomas, additional, Smith, Noah, additional, Steiner, Andrea, additional, Suga, Toshio, additional, Szekely, Tanguy, additional, Thiery, Wim, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Vanderkelen, Inne, additional, Wjiffels, Susan E., additional, Wu, Tonghua, additional, and Zemp, Michael, additional

Published
2022
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20. Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers.

Author

Hager, Alexander O., Sutherland, David A., and Slater, Donald A.

Subjects
ALPINE glaciers, CLIMATE change models, MELTWATER, ABLATION (Glaciology), TIDE-waters, GREENLAND ice, ICE sheets, GLACIERS
Abstract

Frontal ablation has caused 32–66 % of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss since 1972, and despite its importance in driving terminus change, ocean thermal forcing remains crudely incorporated into large-scale ice sheet models. In Greenland, local fjord-scale processes modify the magnitude of thermal forcing at the ice-ocean boundary but are too small scale to be resolved in current global climate models. For example, simulations used in the Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) to predict future ice sheet change rely on the extrapolation of regional ocean water properties into fjords to drive terminus ablation. However, the accuracy of this approach has not previously been tested due to the scarcity of observations in Greenland fjords, as well as the inability of fjord-scale models to realistically incorporate icebergs. By employing the recently developed IceBerg package within the MITgcm, we here evaluate the ability of ocean thermal forcing parameterizations to predict thermal forcing at tidewater glacier termini. This is accomplished through sensitivity experiments using a set of idealized Greenland fjords each forced with equivalent ocean boundary conditions, but with varying tidal amplitudes, subglacial discharge, iceberg coverage, and bathymetry. Our results indicate that the bathymetric obstruction of external water is the primary control on near-glacier thermal forcing, followed by iceberg submarine melting. We find that grounding line thermal forcing varies by 2.9 °C across all simulations and is heavily dependent on the depth of bathymetric sills in relation to the Polar-Atlantic Water thermocline. However, using a common adjustment for fjord bathymetry we can still predict grounding line thermal forcing within 0.2 °C in our simulations. Finally, we introduce new parameterizations that account for iceberg-driven cooling that can accurately predict interior fjord thermal forcing profiles both in iceberg-laden simulations and in observations from Ilulissat Icefjord. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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25. Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice Cover Over the Last Century

Author

Smedsrud, Lars H., primary, Muilwijk, Morven, additional, Brakstad, Ailin, additional, Madonna, Erica, additional, Lauvset, Siv K., additional, Spensberger, Clemens, additional, Born, Andreas, additional, Eldevik, Tor, additional, Drange, Helge, additional, Jeansson, Emil, additional, Li, Camille, additional, Olsen, Are, additional, Skagseth, Øystein, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Våge, Kjetil, additional, and Årthun, Marius, additional

Published
2021
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27. Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J., primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin L., additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen F., additional, Quiquet, Aurélien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, additional, Seroussi, Hélène, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, van den Broeke, Michiel, additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2021
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28. AIBS News

Author

Schwartz, Samuel M., Slater, Donald W., Heydrick, Fred P., and Woollett, Gillian R.

Published
1995

30. Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice Cover Over the Last Century.

Author

Smedsrud, Lars H., Muilwijk, Morven, Brakstad, Ailin, Madonna, Erica, Lauvset, Siv K., Spensberger, Clemens, Born, Andreas, Eldevik, Tor, Drange, Helge, Jeansson, Emil, Li, Camille, Skagseth, Are Olsen,Øystein, Slater, Donald A., Straneo, Fiamma, Våge, Kjetil, and Årthun, Marius

Subjects
HEAT losses, SEA ice, OCEAN-atmosphere interaction, CYCLONES
Abstract

Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice-ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900–2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950–), AW inflow observations (1996–), and other long-term time series of sea ice extent (1900–), glacier retreat (1984–), and Barents Sea hydrography (1900–). The Arctic Ocean, including the Nordic and Barents Seas, has warmed since the 1970s. This warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and sea ice loss and has contributed to the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers on Greenland. Heat loss to the atmosphere is largest in the Nordic Seas (60% of total) with large variability linked to the frequency of Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the region, but there is no long-term statistically significant trend. Heat loss from the Barents Sea (∼30%) and Arctic seas farther north (∼10%) is overall smaller, but exhibit large positive trends. The AW inflow, total heat loss to the atmosphere, and dense outflow have all increased since 1900. These are consistently related through theoretical scaling, but the AW inflow increase is also wind-driven. The Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ∼30% over the last century—consistent with Arctic sea ice loss allowing stronger air-sea interaction and is ∼8% of the global uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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31. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Author

Payne, Antony J, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick M., additional, Albrecht, Torsten, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cullather, Richard I., additional, Cuzzone, Joshua K, additional, dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin Keith, additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Gladstone, Rupert, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Hoffman, Matthew J., additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C, additional, Kleiner, Thomas, additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric Yves, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Little, Christopher M, additional, Lowry, Daniel P, additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Pattyn, Frank, additional, Pelle, Tyler, additional, Price, Stephen, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Reese, Ronja, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole -J., additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald A, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Sun, Sainan, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, Trusel, Luke, additional, Van Breedam, Jonas, additional, van de Wal, Roderik S. W., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, Winkelmann, Ricarda, additional, Zhao, Chen, additional, Zhang, Tong, additional, and Zwinger, Thomas, additional

Published
2020
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32. Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution

Author

Slater, Donald A., Felikson, Denis, Straneo, Fiamma, Goelzer, Heiko, Little, Christopher M., Morlighem, Mathieu, Fettweis, Xavier, Nowicki, Sophie, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, and Marine and Atmospheric Research

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Greenland ice sheet, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Sea level, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, Earth-Surface Processes, GC, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, GE, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Glacier, DAS, Future sea level, Glaciologie, Ice-sheet model, lcsh:Geology, Sea surface temperature, Climatology, GC Oceanography, Ice sheet, GE Environmental Sciences
Abstract

Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2020

33. Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting

Author

Slater, Donald A., Straneo, Fiamma, Felikson, Denis, Little, Christopher M., Goelzer, Heiko, Fettweis, Xavier, Holte, James, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, and University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Population, Greenland ice sheet, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, education, Sea level, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Tidewater, Water Science and Technology, Earth-Surface Processes, lcsh:GE1-350, geography, education.field_of_study, geography.geographical_feature_category, GE, Géologie et minéralogie, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Tidewater glacier cycle, Submarine, Glacier, 3rd-DAS, lcsh:Geology, théorie et applications [Econométrie et méthodes statistiques], Physical geography, Ice sheet, Geology, GE Environmental Sciences
Abstract

The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960-2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2019

34. The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Author

Goelzer, Heiko, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Anthony, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Little, Chris, additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, and van den Broeke, Michiel, additional

Published
2020
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35. Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?

Author

von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Hansen, James, additional, Tassone, Caterina, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Desbruyères, Damien, additional, Domingues, Catia, additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Gentine, Pierre, additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killick, Rachel, additional, King, Brian A., additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Monier, Maeva, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, and Wijffels, Susan E., additional

Published
2020
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36. Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Author

Nowicki, Sophie, primary, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Seroussi, Hélène, additional, Payne, Anthony J., additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cécile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S., additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Gregory, Jonathan M., additional, Hattermann, Tore, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin S., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, and van de Wal, Roderik, additional

Published
2020
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40. Heat stored in the Earth system: Where does the energy go? The GCOS Earth heat inventory team

Author

von Schuckmann, Karina, primary, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Palmer, Matthew D., additional, Tassone, Caterina, additional, Aich, Valentin, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Beltrami, Hugo, additional, Boyer, Tim, additional, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, additional, Desbruyères, Damien, additional, Domingues, Catia, additional, García-García, Almudena, additional, Gentine, Pierre, additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gorfer, Maximilian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Killik, Rachel, additional, King, Brian A., additional, Kirchengast, Gottfried, additional, Kolodziejczyk, Nicolas, additional, Lyman, John, additional, Marzeion, Ben, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Monier, Maeva, additional, Monselesan, Didier Paolo, additional, Purkey, Sarah, additional, Roemmich, Dean, additional, Schweiger, Axel, additional, Seneviratne, Sonia I., additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Slater, Donald A., additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, and Wijffels, Susan E., additional

Published
2020
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42. Experimental protocol for sealevel projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models

Author

Nowicki, Sophie, primary, Payne, Antony J., additional, Goelzer, Heiko, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Agosta, Cecile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Asay-Davis, Xylar S., additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., additional, Cullather, Richard, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Hatterman, Tore, additional, Jourdain, Nicolas C., additional, Kuipers Munneke, Peter, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Little, Christopher M., additional, Morlinghem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Shepherd, Andrew, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiammetta, additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, van den Broeke, Michiel R., additional, and van de Wal, Roderik, additional

Published
2020
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43. Supplementary material to "The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6"

Author

Goelzer, Heiko, primary, Nowicki, Sophie, additional, Payne, Anthony, additional, Larour, Eric, additional, Seroussi, Helene, additional, Lipscomb, William H., additional, Gregory, Jonathan, additional, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, additional, Shepherd, Andy, additional, Simon, Erika, additional, Agosta, Cecile, additional, Alexander, Patrick, additional, Aschwanden, Andy, additional, Barthel, Alice, additional, Calov, Reinhard, additional, Chambers, Christopher, additional, Choi, Youngmin, additional, Cuzzone, Joshua, additional, Dumas, Christophe, additional, Edwards, Tamsin, additional, Felikson, Denis, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Golledge, Nicholas R., additional, Greve, Ralf, additional, Humbert, Angelika, additional, Huybrechts, Philippe, additional, Le clec'h, Sebastien, additional, Lee, Victoria, additional, Leguy, Gunter, additional, Little, Chris, additional, Lowry, Daniel P., additional, Morlighem, Mathieu, additional, Nias, Isabel, additional, Quiquet, Aurelien, additional, Rückamp, Martin, additional, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, additional, Slater, Donald, additional, Smith, Robin, additional, Straneo, Fiamma, additional, Tarasov, Lev, additional, van de Wal, Roderik, additional, and van den Broeke, Michiel, additional

Published
2020
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47. Comparison of Columnar Water-Vapor Measurements from Solar Transmittance Methods

Author

Schmid, Beat, Michalsky, J, Slater, Donald W, Barnard, James C, Halthore, Rangasayi N, Liljegren, James C, Holben, Brent N, Eck, Thomas F, Livingston, John M, and Russell, Philp B

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program studied water vapor abundance measurement at its southern Great Plains site in the fall of 1997. The program used a large number of instruments, including four solar radiometers. By measuring solar transmittance in the 0.94 micrometer water apor absorption band, they were able to measure columnar water vapor (CWV). In the second round of comparison we used the same radiative transfer model, and the same line-by-line code (which includes recently corrected H2O spectroscopy) to retrieve CWV from all four solar radiometers, thus decreasing the mean CWV by 8 - 13 %. The model was not responsible for the 8 % spread in CWV which remained.

Published
2001

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