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1. Hawthorne

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Wright, Elizabeth J.

Published
2012

3. Hawthorne

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Wright, Elizabeth J.

Published
2011

4. Hawthorne

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Wright, Elizabeth J.

Published
2010

5. Hawthorne

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Wright, Elizabeth J.

Published
2009

6. Exploring the Relationship between Prior Knowledge and Metacognitive Monitoring Accuracy

Author

Witherby, Amber E., Carpenter, Shana K., and Smith, Andrew M.

Abstract

Prior knowledge is often strongly related to students' learning. In the present research, we explored the relationship between prior knowledge and the accuracy of students' predictive monitoring judgments (judgments of learning; JOLs) and postdictive monitoring judgments (confidence judgments). In four experiments, students completed prior knowledge tests over two domains (football and cooking), learned new items from those domains, and completed a test over those items. To ensure the learning was new, the items that students learned and were tested over consisted of made-up facts from each domain. In Experiments 1-3, students made JOLs predicting the likelihood that they would remember each item on the test. In Experiments 2 and 3, students also made confidence judgments in the accuracy of their response after answering each question on the final test. Prior knowledge was negatively related to the accuracy of students' JOLs, but unrelated to the accuracy of their confidence judgments. Exploratory analyses revealed that the relationship with JOLs was likely driven by high knowledge students giving relatively lower JOLs to items that they later remembered. Experiment 4 directly tested this possibility by having students make binary memory predictions about whether they would remember each item. Outcomes were consistent with the exploratory analyses. Thus, the negative relationship between prior knowledge and JOL accuracy appears to be driven by the greater tendency of high knowledge students, relative to low knowledge students, to remember items that they thought they would forget.

Published
2023
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10. Five-year recurrence/survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: does pre-existing diabetes matter? Results from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study

Author

Lead Unit, Aroori, Somaiah, Labib, Peter L., Russell, Thomas B., Streeter, Adam, Denson, Jemimah, Puckett, Mark, Zhou, Shang-Ming, Browning, Matthew, Collaborating Units, Ausania, Fabio, Gonzalez-Abos, Carolina, Pando, Elizabeth, Fernandes, Nair, Moller, Elsa G., Taboada, Cristina D., Roberts, Keith, Pande, Rupaly, Alfarah, Jameel, Kausar, Ambareen, Bandyopadhyay, Samik, Abdelrahim, Ahmed, Khan, Ayesha, Mavroeidis, Vasileios K., Jordan, Caitlin, Rees, Jonathan R.E., Marangoni, Gabriele, Blege, Harry, Thomasset, Sarah, Cambridge, William, White, Olga, Frampton, Adam, Blacker, Sarah, Blackburn, Jessie, Sweeney, Casie, Lykoudis, Pavlos, Field, Daniel, Gouda, Mohammed, Maglione, Manuel, Bellotti, Ruben, Alhaboob, Nassir, Hamid, Hytham K.S., Bari, Hassaan, Ahmed, Hassan, Smith, Andrew, Moriarty, Catherine, White, Louise, Priestley, Mark, Bode, Kerry, Sharp, Judith, Wragg, Rosie, Jackson, Beverley, Craven, Samuel, Spalding, Duncan, Fehervari, Matyas, Pai, Madhava, Alghazawi, Laith, Onifade, Anjola, Srinivasan, Parthi, Ribaud, Julliette, Nair, Ashitha, Mariathasan, Michael, Grayson, Niamh, Davidson, Brian, Pericleous, Stephanos, Patel, Krishna, Shaw, Conrad, Morare, Nolitha, Zaban, Mohamad K., Bhogal, Ricky, Doyle, Joseph, Croagh, Daniel, Rajagopalan, Ashray, Dominguez, Ismael, Guerrero, Alan, Moguel, Andre, Chan, Carlos, Thakkar, Rohan, Jones, Michael, Buckley, Edward, Akter, Nasreen, Treherne, Kyle, Gomez, Dhanny, Gordon, Gregory, Silva, Michael, Hughes, Daniel, Urbonas, Tomas, Lapolla, Pierfrancesco, Mingoli, Andrea, Brachini, Gioia, Caronna, Roberto, Chirletti, Piero, Porcu, Alberto, Perra, Teresa, Shah, Nehal S., Abd Kahar, Nurul N., Hall, Thomas, Nadeem, Nabeegh, Hamady, Zaed, Karar, Shoura, Arshad, Ali, Al-Sarrieh, Bilal, Yarwood, Adam, Hammoda, Mohammed, Serrablo, Alejandro, Artigas, Maria, Paterna-López, Sandra, Roberts, Keith J., Thomasset, Sarah C., Frampton, Adam E., Smith, Andrew M., Davidson, Brian R., Bhogal, Ricky H., Silva, Michael A., and Hamady, Zaed Z.R.

Published
2024
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16. Therapeutic targeting of adipose tissue macrophages ameliorates liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Author

Martínez–Sánchez, Celia, Bassegoda, Octavi, Deng, Hongping, Almodóvar, Xènia, Ibarzabal, Ainitze, de Hollanda, Ana, Martínez García de la Torre, Raquel–Adela, Blaya, Delia, Ariño, Silvia, Jiménez-Esquivel, Natalia, Aguilar-Bravo, Beatriz, Vallverdú, Julia, Montironi, Carla, Osorio-Conles, Oscar, Fundora, Yiliam, Sánchez Moreno, Francisco Javier, Gómez-Valadés, Alicia G., Aguilar-Corominas, Laia, Soria, Anna, Pose, Elisa, Juanola, Adrià, Cervera, Marta, Perez, Martina, Hernández-Gea, Virginia, Affò, Silvia, Swanson, Kelly S., Ferrer-Fàbrega, Joana, Balibrea, Jose Maria, Sancho-Bru, Pau, Vidal, Josep, Ginès, Pere, Smith, Andrew M., Graupera, Isabel, and Coll, Mar

Published
2023
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18. Serious complications of pancreatoduodenectomy correlate with lower rates of adjuvant chemotherapy: Results from the recurrence after Whipple's (RAW) study

Author

Labib, Peter L., Russell, Thomas B., Streeter, Adam, Denson, Jemimah, Puckett, Mark, Zhou, Shang-Ming, Browning, Matthew, Aroori, Somaiah, Ausania, Fabio, Pando, Elizabeth, Roberts, Keith, Kausar, Ambareen, Mavroeidis, Vasileios K., Marangoni, Gabriele, Thomasset, Sarah, Frampton, Adam, Lykoudis, Pavlos, Maglione, Manuel, Alhaboob, Nassir, Bari, Hassaan, Smith, Andrew, Spalding, Duncan, Srinivasan, Parthi, Davidson, Brian, Bhogal, Ricky, Croagh, Daniel, Dominguez, Ismael, Thakkar, Rohan, Gomez, Dhanny, Silva, Michael, Lapolla, Pierfrancesco, Mingoli, Andrea, Porcu, Alberto, Shah, Nehal Sureshkumar, Hamady, Zaed, Al-Sarrieh, Bilal, Serrablo, Alejandro, Gonzalez-Abos, Carolina, Fernandes, Nair, Moller, Elsa Garcia, Taboada, Cristina Dopazo, Pande, Rupaly, Alfarah, Jameel, Bandyopadhyay, Samik, Abdelrahim, Ahmed, Khan, Ayesha, Jordan, Caitlin, Rees, Jonathan R.E., Blege, Harry, Cambridge, William, White, Olga, Blacker, Sarah, Blackburn, Jessie, Sweeney, Casie, Field, Daniel, Gouda, Mohammed, Bellotti, Ruben, Hamid, Hytham K.S., Ahmed, Hassan, Moriarty, Catherine, White, Louise, Priestley, Mark, Bode, Kerry, Sharp, Judith, Wragg, Rosie, Jackson, Beverley, Craven, Samuel, Fehervari, Matyas, Pai, Madhava, Alghazawi, Laith, Onifade, Anjola, Ribaud, Julliette, Nair, Ashitha, Mariathasan, Michael, Grayson, Niamh, Pericleous, Stephanos, Patel, Krishna, Shaw, Conrad, Morare, Nolitha, Zaban, Mohamad Khish, Doyle, Joseph, Guerrero, Alan, Moguel, Andre, Chan, Carlos, Jones, Michael, Buckley, Edward, Akter, Nasreen, Treherne, Kyle, Gordon, Gregory, Hughes, Daniel, Urbonas, Tomas, Brachini, Gioia, Caronna, Roberto, Chirletti, Piero, Perra, Teresa, Abd Kahar, Nurul Nadhirah, Hall, Thomas, Nadeem, Nabeegh, Karar, Shoura, Arshad, Ali, Yarwood, Adam, Hammoda, Mohammed, Artigas, Maria, Paterna-López, Sandra, Roberts, Keith J., Thomasset, Sarah C., Frampton, Adam E., Smith, Andrew M., Davidson, Brian R., Bhogal, Ricky H., Silva, Michael A., Shah, Nehal S., and Hamady, Zaed Z.R.

Published
2023
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19. Predictors of actual five-year survival and recurrence after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma: results from an international multicentre retrospective cohort study

Author

Aroori, Somaiah, Labib, Peter L., Russell, Thomas B., Streeter, Adam, Denson, Jemimah, Puckett, Mark, Browning, Matthew G., Ausania, Fabio, González-Abós, Carolina, Pando, Elizabeth, Fernandes, Nair, Moller, Elsa G., Taboada, Cristina D., Roberts, Keith J., Pande, Rupaly, Alfarah, Jameel, Kausar, Ambareen, Bandyopadhyay, Samik, Abdelrahim, Ahmed, Khan, Ayesha, Mavroeidis, Vasileios K., Jordan, Caitlin, Rees, Jonathan R.E., Marangoni, Gabriele, Blege, Collaborator: Harry, Thomasset, Sarah, Cambridge, William, White, Olga, Frampton, Adam, Blacker, Sarah, Blackburn, Jessie, Sweeney, Casie, Lykoudis, Pavlos, Field, Daniel, Gouda, Mohammed, Maglione, Manuel, Bellotti, Ruben, Alhaboob, Nassir, Hamid, Hytham K.S., Bari, Hassaan, Ahmed, Hassan, Smith, Andrew, Moriarty, Catherine, White, Louise, Priestley, Mark, Bode, Kerry, Sharp, Judith, Wragg, Rosie, Jackson, Beverley, Craven, Samuel, Spalding, Duncan, Fehervari, Matyas, Pai, Madhava, Alghazawi, Laith, Onifade, Anjola, Srinivasan, Parthi, Ribaud, Julliette, Nair, Ashitha, Mariathasan, Michael, Grayson, Niamh, Davidson, Brian, Pericleous, Stephanos, Krishna Patel, Shaw, Conrad, Morare, Nolitha, Zaban, Mohamad K., Bhogal, Ricky, Doyle, Joseph, Croagh, Daniel, Dominguez, Ismael, Guerrero, Alan, Moguel, Andre, Chan, Carlos, Thakkar, Rohan, Jones, Michael, Buckley, Edward, Akter, Nasreen, Treherne, Kyle, Gomez, Dhanny, Gordon, Gregory, Silva, Michael, Hughes, Daniel, Urbonas, Tomas, Lapolla, Pierfrancesco, Mingoli, Andrea, Brachini, Gioia, Caronna, Roberto, Chirletti, Piero, Porcu, Alberto, Perra, Teresa, Shah, Nehal S., Abd Kahar, Nurul N., Hall, Thomas, Nadeem, Nabeegh, Hamady, Zaed, Karar, Shoura, Arshad, Ali, Al-Sarrieh, Bilal, Yarwood, Adam, Hammoda, Mohammed, Serrablo, Alejandro, Artigas, Maria, Paterna-López, Sandra, Thomasset, Sarah C., Frampton, Adam E., Smith, Andrew M., Davidson, Brian R., Bhogal, Ricky H., Silva, Michael A., and Hamady, Zaed Z.R.

Published
2023
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21. Are children in care offered effective therapeutic support?

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Reeves, Andrew

Subjects
therapeutic support, therapy, children, United Kingdom
Abstract

Aim - This thesis aims to answer the question as to whether or not the therapeutic support offered to children in care in the U.K. is effective. There are two parts to the question: ascertaining what the actual offer of therapy consists of; the quality of that offer in terms of therapeutic effectiveness. Background - children in care are significantly more likely than their peers to be involved in offending behaviour, substance misuse, and to be unemployed DfE (2019). There is evidence to suggest that unresolved developmental trauma can contribute to these outcomes (National Audit Office, 2015). It is unclear how focused the government is on supporting effective therapeutic recovery from developmental trauma. Method - Questionnaires were distributed to every local authority in the country, with approval from the Directors' of Children's Services. Interviews were attempted. A Foucaultian Discourse Analysis of key pieces of legislation in the field was then completed, and a Thematic Analysis of 28 studies into therapeutic recovery from complex developmental trauma was achieved. Key Findings- The study found that children in care are not systematically offered effective therapeutic support. In fact, there are multiple issues according to the quality of therapies on offer: there is a legal/political/organisational system that is dysfunctional: the offer of therapy is impossible to ascertain across the country; the way in which therapists research their own provision is laden with methodological, political, and ethical issues. However, the evidence supports the idea that we are aware of some key factors that help therapeutic recovery. Implications for Practice - The evidence provided a range of factors to support future development of therapeutic support to children in care, and supported a mapping out of the way in which therapies could usefully be developed in the future. The evidence led to the development of a model of best practice. Conclusion - The thesis ends with some recommendations as to how the profession of psychotherapy and counselling could begin to develop both their knowledge base and way of working with children care to support more effective therapeutic recovery.

Published
2020

22. Macrophage-specific inhibition of the histone demethylase JMJD3 decreases STING and pathologic inflammation in diabetic wound repair

Author

Audu, Christopher O., Melvin, William J., Joshi, Amrita D., Wolf, Sonya J., Moon, Jadie Y., Davis, Frank M., Barrett, Emily C., Mangum, Kevin D., Deng, Hongping, Xing, Xianying, Wasikowski, Rachel, Tsoi, Lam C., Sharma, Sriganesh B., Bauer, Tyler M., Shadiow, James, Corriere, Matthew A., Obi, Andrea T., Kunkel, Steven L., Levi, Benjamin, Moore, Bethany B., Gudjonsson, Johann E., Smith, Andrew M., and Gallagher, Katherine A.

Published
2022
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23. Fair Credit Reporting Act Update-2022

Author

Smith, Andrew M. and Bartholomew, Lucy C.

Subjects
United States. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau -- Surveys, Privacy, Right of -- Surveys, Data security -- Surveys, Human smuggling -- Surveys, Credit ratings -- Surveys, Standing (Law) -- Surveys, Data security issue, Business, general, Law, Fair Credit Reporting Act
Abstract

INTRODUCTION (1) The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ('CFPB') has been increasingly active under the Fair Credit Reporting Act ('FCRA'), (2) making rules, issuing advisory opinions, and taking enforcement action. CFPB [...]

Published
2023

24. Obtaining a History of the Flux of Cosmic Rays using In Situ Cosmogenic $^{14}$C Trapped in Polar Ice

Author

BenZvi, Segev, Petrenko, Vasilii V., Hmiel, Benjamin, Dyonisius, Michael, Smith, Andrew M., Yang, Bin, and Hua, Quan

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Abstract

Carbon-14 ($^{14}$C) is produced in the atmosphere when neutrons from cosmic-ray air showers are captured by $^{14}$N nuclei. Atmospheric $^{14}$C becomes trapped in air bubbles in polar ice as compacted snow (firn) transforms into ice. $^{14}$C is also produced in situ in ice grains by penetrating cosmic-ray neutrons and muons. Recent ice core measurements indicate that in the $^{14}$CO phase, the $^{14}$C is dominated by the in situ cosmogenic component at most ice coring sites. Thus, it should be possible to use ice-bound $^{14}$CO to reconstruct the historical flux of cosmic rays at Earth, without the transport and deposition uncertainties associated with $^{10}$Be or the carbon cycle uncertainties affecting atmospheric $^{14}$CO$_2$. The measurements will be sensitive to the cosmic-ray flux above the energy range most affected by solar modulation. We present estimates of the expected sensitivity of $^{14}$CO in ice cores to the historical flux of Galactic cosmic rays, based on recent studies of $^{14}$CO in polar ice., Comment: Presented at the International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC2019) in Madison, WI, USA, July 2019. 8 pages, 2 figures

Published
2019

25. Competitive percolation strategies for network recovery

Author

Smith, Andrew M., Pósfai, Márton, Rohden, Martin, Gonzáles, Andrés D., Dueńas-Osorio, Leonardo, and D'Souza, Raissa M.

Subjects
Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems
Abstract

Restoring operation of critical infrastructure systems after catastrophic events is an important issue, inspiring work in multiple fields, including network science, civil engineering, and operations research. We consider the problem of finding the optimal order of repairing elements in power grids and similar infrastructure. Most existing methods either only consider system network structure, potentially ignoring important features, or incorporate component level details leading to complex optimization problems with limited scalability. We aim to narrow the gap between the two approaches. Analyzing realistic recovery strategies, we identify over- and undersupply penalties of commodities as primary contributions to reconstruction cost, and we demonstrate traditional network science methods, which maximize the largest connected component, are cost inefficient. We propose a novel competitive percolation recovery model accounting for node demand and supply, and network structure. Our model well approximates realistic recovery strategies, suppressing growth of the largest connected component through a process analogous to explosive percolation. Using synthetic power grids, we investigate the effect of network characteristics on recovery process efficiency. We learn that high structural redundancy enables reduced total cost and faster recovery, however, requires more information at each recovery step. We also confirm that decentralized supply in networks generally benefits recovery efforts., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

Published
2019

26. Cultural Heritage Project at Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO)

Author

Salvemini, Filomena, White, Rachel, Levchenko, Vladimir A., Smith, Andrew M., Pastuovic, Zeljko, Stopic, Attila, Luzin, Vladimir, Tobin, Mark J., Puskar, Ljiljana, Howard, Daryl, Davis, Joel, Avdeev, Maxim, Gatenby, Sue, Kim, Min-Jung, Grazzi, Francesco, Sheedy, Kenneth, Olsen, Scott R., Raymond, Carla A., Lord, Constance, Richards, Candace, Bevitt, Joseph, Popelka-Filcoff, Rachel S., Lenehan, Claire E., Ives, Simon, Dredge, Paula, Yip, Andrew, Brookhouse, Matthew Theodore, Austin, Anne Gerard, D'Amico, Sebastiano, editor, and Venuti, Valentina, editor

Published
2022
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28. Five-year recurrence/survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: does pre-existing diabetes matter? Results from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study

Author

Rajagopalan, Ashray, primary, Aroori, Somaiah, additional, Russell, Thomas B., additional, Labib, Peter L., additional, Ausania, Fabio, additional, Pando, Elizabeth, additional, Roberts, Keith J., additional, Kausar, Ambareen, additional, Mavroeidis, Vasileios K., additional, Marangoni, Gabriele, additional, Thomasset, Sarah C., additional, Frampton, Adam E., additional, Lykoudis, Pavlos, additional, Maglione, Manuel, additional, Alhaboob, Nassir, additional, Bari, Hassaan, additional, Smith, Andrew M., additional, Spalding, Duncan, additional, Srinivasan, Parthi, additional, Davidson, Brian R., additional, Bhogal, Ricky H., additional, Dominguez, Ismael, additional, Thakkar, Rohan, additional, Gomez, Dhanny, additional, Silva, Michael A., additional, Lapolla, Pierfrancesco, additional, Mingoli, Andrea, additional, Porcu, Alberto, additional, Shah, Nehal S., additional, Hamady, Zaed Z.R., additional, Al-Sarrieh, Bilal, additional, Serrablo, Alejandro, additional, Croagh, Daniel, additional, Gonzalez-Abos, Carolina, additional, Fernandes, Nair, additional, Moller, Elsa Garcia, additional, Taboada, Cristina Dopazo, additional, Roberts, Keith, additional, Pande, Rupaly, additional, Alfarah, Jameel, additional, Bandyopadhyay, Samik, additional, Abdelrahim, Ahmed, additional, Khan, Ayesha, additional, Jordan, Caitlin, additional, Rees, Jonathan R.E., additional, Blege, Harry, additional, Thomasset, Sarah, additional, Cambridge, William, additional, White, Olga, additional, Frampton, Adam, additional, Blacker, Sarah, additional, Blackburn, Jessie, additional, Sweeney, Casie, additional, Field, Daniel, additional, Gouda, Mohammed, additional, Bellotti, Ruben, additional, Hamid, Hytham K.S., additional, Ahmed, Hassan, additional, Smith, Andrew, additional, Moriarty, Catherine, additional, White, Louise, additional, Priestley, Mark, additional, Bode, Kerry, additional, Sharp, Judith, additional, Wragg, Rosie, additional, Jackson, Beverley, additional, Craven, Samuel, additional, Fehervari, Matyas, additional, Pai, Madhava, additional, Alghazawi, Laith, additional, Onifade, Anjola, additional, Ribaud, Julliette, additional, Nair, Ashitha, additional, Mariathasan, Michael, additional, Grayson, Niamh, additional, Davidson, Brian, additional, Pericleous, Stephanos, additional, Patel, Krishna, additional, Shaw, Conrad, additional, Morare, Nolitha, additional, Zaban, Mohamad Khish, additional, Bhogal, Ricky, additional, Doyle, Joseph, additional, Rajagopalan, Ashray, additional, Guerrero, Alan, additional, Moguel, Andre, additional, Chan, Carlos, additional, Jones, Michael, additional, Buckley, Edward, additional, Akter, Nasreen, additional, Treherne, Kyle, additional, Gordon, Gregory, additional, Silva, Michael, additional, Hughes, Daniel, additional, Urbonas, Tomas, additional, Brachini, Gioia, additional, Caronna, Roberto, additional, Chirletti, Piero, additional, Perra, Teresa, additional, Shah, Nehal Sureshkumar, additional, Abd Kahar, Nurul Nadhirah, additional, Hall, Thomas, additional, Nadeem, Nabeegh, additional, Hamady, Zaed, additional, Karar, Shoura, additional, Arshad, Ali, additional, Yarwood, Adam, additional, Hammoda, Mohammed, additional, Artigas, Maria, additional, Paterna-López, Sandra, additional, Streeter, Adam, additional, Denson, Jemimah, additional, Puckett, Mark, additional, Zhou, Shang-Ming, additional, and Browning, Matthew, additional

Published
2024
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30. Competitive percolation strategies for network recovery

Author

Smith, Andrew M, Pósfai, Márton, Rohden, Martin, González, Andrés D, Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo, and D’Souza, Raissa M

Abstract

Restoring operation of critical infrastructure systems after catastrophic events is an important issue, inspiring work in multiple fields, including network science, civil engineering, and operations research. We consider the problem of finding the optimal order of repairing elements in power grids and similar infrastructure. Most existing methods either only consider system network structure, potentially ignoring important features, or incorporate component level details leading to complex optimization problems with limited scalability. We aim to narrow the gap between the two approaches. Analyzing realistic recovery strategies, we identify over- and undersupply penalties of commodities as primary contributions to reconstruction cost, and we demonstrate traditional network science methods, which maximize the largest connected component, are cost inefficient. We propose a novel competitive percolation recovery model accounting for node demand and supply, and network structure. Our model well approximates realistic recovery strategies, suppressing growth of the largest connected component through a process analogous to explosive percolation. Using synthetic power grids, we investigate the effect of network characteristics on recovery process efficiency. We learn that high structural redundancy enables reduced total cost and faster recovery, however, requires more information at each recovery step. We also confirm that decentralized supply in networks generally benefits recovery efforts.

Published
2019

33. A 30 m Global Flood Inundation Model for Any Climate Scenario.

Author

Wing, Oliver E. J., Bates, Paul D., Quinn, Niall D., Savage, James T. S., Uhe, Peter F., Cooper, Anthony, Collings, Thomas P., Addor, Nans, Lord, Natalie S., Hatchard, Simbi, Hoch, Jannis M., Bates, Joe, Probyn, Izzy, Himsworth, Sam, Rodríguez González, Josué, Brine, Malcolm P., Wilkinson, Hamish, Sampson, Christopher C., Smith, Andrew M., and Neal, Jeffrey C.

Abstract

Global flood mapping has developed rapidly over the past decade, but previous approaches have limited scope, function, and accuracy. These limitations restrict the applicability and fundamental science questions that can be answered with existing model frameworks. Harnessing recently available data and modeling methods, this paper presents a new global ∼30 m resolution Global Flood Map (GFM) with complete coverage of fluvial, pluvial, and coastal perils, for any return period or climate scenario, including accounting for uncertainty. With an extensive compilation of global benchmark case studies—ranging from locally collected event water levels, to national inventories of engineering flood maps—we execute a comprehensive validation of the new GFM. For flood extent comparisons, we demonstrate that the GFM achieves a critical success index of ∼0.75. In the more discriminatory tests of flood water levels, the GFM deviates from observations by ∼0.6 m on average. Results indicating this level of global model fidelity are unprecedented in the literature. With an optimistic scenario of future warming (SSP1‐2.6), we show end‐of‐century global flood hazard (average annual inundation volume) increases are limited to 9% (likely range ‐6%–29%); this is within the likely climatological uncertainty of −8%–12% in the current hazard estimate. In contrast, pessimistic scenario (SSP5‐8.5) hazard changes emerge from the background noise in the 2040s, rising to a 49% (likely range of 7%–109%) increase by 2100. This work verifies the fitness‐for‐purpose of this new‐generation GFM for impact analyses with a variety of beneficial applications across policymaking, planning, and commercial risk assessment. Plain Language Summary: Computer models use a variety of data and physical equations to estimate the extent and depth of possible flood events. Global applications of these tools have been developed over the past decade, but they are not very good at simulating the behavior of real floods. In this paper, we address some key problems to make a global model that does a lot better than past ones. We apply new techniques to better understand how much water we need to put into the model for a given flood probability. This movement of water is simulated by the model over a more accurate map of the Earth's terrain than has been available previously, with river channels represented in a smarter way. We look at the projected changes in rainfall, river discharge, and sea levels for given levels of warming simulated by available climate models and adjust the probabilities of a given magnitude flood accordingly. The model results suggest that the effect of future climate change might be small relative to our ability to understand flood hazards today, but this depends heavily on how much carbon we emit in the coming decades. Key Points: New climate‐conditioned model framework represents fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazards at high‐resolution globallyComprehensive validation studies suggest that the model is approaching local model skill in many casesEmissions reduction can hold flood hazards largely constant this century, though coastal flooding will increase drastically regardless [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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34. Characterization of in situ cosmogenic 14CO production, retention and loss in firn and shallow ice at Summit, Greenland.

Author

Hmiel, Benjamin, Petrenko, Vasilii V., Buizert, Christo, Smith, Andrew M., Dyonisius, Michael N., Place, Philip, Yang, Bin, Hua, Quan, Beaudette, Ross, Severinghaus, Jeffrey P., Harth, Christina, Weiss, Ray F., Davidge, Lindsey, Diaz, Melisa, Pacicco, Matthew, Menking, James A., Kalk, Michael, Faïn, Xavier, Adolph, Alden, and Vimont, Isaac

Subjects
ICE cores, CARBON monoxide, POROSITY, ATMOSPHERE
Abstract

Measurements of carbon-14-containing carbon monoxide (14 CO) in glacial ice are useful for studies of the past oxidative capacity of the atmosphere as well as for reconstructing the past cosmic ray flux. The 14 CO abundance in glacial ice represents the combination of trapped atmospheric 14 CO and in situ cosmogenic 14 CO. The systematics of in situ cosmogenic 14 CO production and retention in ice are not fully quantified, posing an obstacle to interpretation of ice core 14 CO measurements. Here we provide the first comprehensive characterization of 14 CO at an ice accumulation site (Summit, Greenland), including measurements in the ice grains of the firn matrix, firn air and bubbly ice below the firn zone. The results are interpreted with the aid of a firn gas transport model into which we implemented in situ cosmogenic 14 C. We find that almost all (≈ 99.5 %) of in situ 14 CO that is produced in the ice grains in firn is very rapidly (in <1 year) lost to the open porosity and from there mostly vented to the atmosphere. The timescale of this rapid loss is consistent with what is expected from gas diffusion through ice. The small fraction of in situ 14 CO that initially stays in the ice grains continues to slowly leak out to the open porosity at a rate of ≈ 0.6 % yr -1. Below the firn zone we observe an increase in 14 CO content with depth that is due to in situ 14 CO production by deep-penetrating muons, confirming recent estimates of 14 CO production rates in ice via the muon mechanisms and allowing for narrowing constraints on these production rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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35. Comparing Detailed and Less Detailed Pre-Lineup Instructions

Author

Lampinen, James Michael, Race, Brittany, Wolf, Alexander P., Phillips, Paulie, Moriarty, Nathalie, and Smith, Andrew M.

Abstract

It is generally agreed that proper pre-lineup instructions can reduce the rate of mistaken identifications of innocent suspects. However, the exact nature of these instructions has not been empirically established. We compared the effects of the detailed pre-lineup instructions recommended by the US Department of Justice to a simple instruction that the perpetrator may or may not be present. Both forms of unbiased instructions significantly reduced mistaken identifications when compared with biased instructions. Comparison of performance using the utility-based analysis deviation from perfect performance demonstrated that unbiased instructions are to be preferred under assumptions of low base rates or high costs of mistaken identifications and do as well as biased instructions under assumptions of high base rates or low cost of misidentification.

Published
2020
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43. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

Author

Petrenko, Vasilii V, Smith, Andrew M, Schaefer, Hinrich, Riedel, Katja, Brook, Edward, Baggenstos, Daniel, Harth, Christina, Hua, Quan, Buizert, Christo, Schilt, Adrian, Fain, Xavier, Mitchell, Logan, Bauska, Thomas, Orsi, Anais, Weiss, Ray F, and Severinghaus, Jeffrey P

Subjects
Carbon, Methane, Fossil Fuels, Atmosphere, Ice, History, Ancient, Wetlands, Radiometric Dating, Global Warming, Climate Action, General Science & Technology
Abstract

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

Published
2017

44. Multidefender Security Games

Author

Lou, Jian, Smith, Andrew M., and Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy

Subjects
Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence
Abstract

Stackelberg security game models and associated computational tools have seen deployment in a number of high-consequence security settings, such as LAX canine patrols and Federal Air Marshal Service. These models focus on isolated systems with only one defender, despite being part of a more complex system with multiple players. Furthermore, many real systems such as transportation networks and the power grid exhibit interdependencies between targets and, consequently, between decision makers jointly charged with protecting them. To understand such multidefender strategic interactions present in security, we investigate game theoretic models of security games with multiple defenders. Unlike most prior analysis, we focus on the situations in which each defender must protect multiple targets, so that even a single defender's best response decision is, in general, highly non-trivial. We start with an analytical investigation of multidefender security games with independent targets, offering an equilibrium and price-of-anarchy analysis of three models with increasing generality. In all models, we find that defenders have the incentive to over-protect targets, at times significantly. Additionally, in the simpler models, we find that the price of anarchy is unbounded, linearly increasing both in the number of defenders and the number of targets per defender. Considering interdependencies among targets, we develop a novel mixed-integer linear programming formulation to compute a defender's best response, and make use of this formulation in approximating Nash equilibria of the game. We apply this approach towards computational strategic analysis of several models of networks representing interdependencies, including real-world power networks. Our analysis shows how network structure and the probability of failure spread determine the propensity of defenders to over- or under-invest in security.

Published
2015

49. Nanomedicine in Cancer

Author

Ma, Liang, Le, Phuong, Kohli, Manish, Smith, Andrew M., Vo-Dinh, Tuan, Series Editor, Rai, Prakash, editor, and Morris, Stephanie A., editor

Published
2019
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50. Development of the Asthma Impairment and Risk Questionnaire (AIRQ): A Composite Control Measure

Author

Kobernick, Aaron K., Mohammad, Acklema, Cherry, Adam T., Fein, Alan, Gaines, Alan, Allison Ramsey, Michaud, Amanda L., Palmer, Amy, Kim, Andrew S., Smith, Andrew M., White, Andrew A., Ricci, Anthony R., Kettelhut, Brett V., Modena, Brian D., Stone, Brian, Rolston, B. Steele, Schnapf, Bruce M., Krajicek, Bryan, Kraft, Cara, Hopkins, Carly, Natalie, Chitra R., Anderson, Christine, Czajkowski, Christine, Arce, Daisy, Hamlin, Danuel, Hill, David G., Mares, David C., Pham, David, Liao, Da-Wei, Simmons, Deborah, Johnson, Derek K., Jhaveri, Devi K., Maselli, Diego J., Kerwin, Edward, Schuman, Edward, Sher, Ellen R., Bleecker, Eugene, Rakowski, Ewa, Ida Hsu, Florence, Averill, Francis J., Barsanti, Franco, Gross, Gary N., Chupp, Geoffrey Lowell, Head, G. Gilbert, Nasir, Hassan, Lee, Howard J., Barjaktarevic, Igor, Cook, J. Paul, Krainson, James P., Pearl, James E., Bellak, Jason M., Perez-Fernandez, Javier, Rehm, Jeffrey, Trevor, Jennifer, Freyer Most, Jessica, Hanson, Jill, Blessing-Moore, Joann, Biller, Jodi H., Gedell, John, Southard, John G., Chancellor, Jon Eric, Ilowite, Jonathan, Romeo, Jonathan R., Manuel Mercado, Jorge, Dominic Fisher, Joseph, Greiwe, Justin, Gregory, Karen L., Nadeau, Kari, Shenoy, Kartik V., Tan, Laren D., Stefanowicz, Leslie A., Humes, Lindsay D., Bowers, Lori A., Edel O’Connor, Maeve, Perez, Mario F., White, Martha V., Hegewald, Matthew, Wilson, Matthew C., Sikora, Maxcie M., Lee Morganroth, Melvin, Smith, Mitchell, Farooqui, Nabeel, James Lesch, Nathan, Jain, Neal, Parikh, Neil, Hartog, Nicholas L., Luthin, Patricia L., Stewart, Patricia H., Rubio O’Connor, Peggy, Schochet, Peter, Goldberg, Pinkus, Patel, Pulin P., Chinthrajah, R. Sharon, Sidhu, Rabinder, Ayinla, Raji M., Brown, Randall, Stadtler, Reneé, Wachs, Richard A., Balkissoon, Ronald C., Duplantier, Rory L., Puente, Rosalba E., Settipane, Russell, Mustafa, S. Shahzad, Surani, Salim, Abdul Jawad, Sami, Adams, Sandra G., Villegas, Sarah, Al-Farra, Sherif, Subramanian, Shyamsunder, Bains, Sonia N., Kelsen, Steven G., Wise, Steven L., Estrella-Eades, Susan, Smith, Susan M., Qureshi, Tabarak, Chen, Taiwen, Kelbel, Theodore E., Miller, Thomas P., Jain, Vipin, Soong, Weily, Soler, Xavier, Mattar, Ziad R., Murphy, Kevin R., Chipps, Bradley, Beuther, David A., Wise, Robert A., McCann, William, Gilbert, Ileen, Eudicone, James M., Gandhi, Hitesh N., Harding, Gale, Coyne, Karin S., and Zeiger, Robert S.

Published
2020
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