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GW200115 was the second merger of a black hole and a neutron star confidently detected through gravitational waves. Inference on the signal allows for a large black hole spin misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, but shows little support for aligned spin values. We show that this is a natural consequence of measuring the parameters of a black hole -- neutron star binary with non-spinning components while assuming the priors used in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA analysis. We suggest that, a priori, a non-spinning binary is more consistent with current astrophysical understanding., Comment: Minor updates to the version accepted to ApJ Letters

In order to separate astrophysical gravitational-wave signals from instrumental noise, which often contains transient non-Gaussian artifacts, astronomers have traditionally relied on bootstrap methods such as time slides. Bootstrap methods sample with replacement, comparing single-observatory data to construct a background distribution, which is used to assign a false-alarm probability to candidate signals. While bootstrap methods have played an important role establishing the first gravitational-wave detections, there are limitations. First, as the number of detections increases, it makes increasingly less sense to treat single-observatory data as bootstrap-estimated noise, when we know that the data are filled with astrophysical signals, some resolved, some unresolved. Second, it has been known for a decade that background estimation from time-slides eventually breaks down due to saturation effects, yielding incorrect estimates of significance. Third, the false alarm probability cannot be used to weight candidate significance, for example when performing population inference on a set of candidates. Given recent debate about marginally resolved gravitational-wave detection claims, the question of significance has practical consequences. We propose a Bayesian framework for calculating the odds that a signal is of astrophysical origin versus instrumental noise without bootstrap noise estimation. We show how the astrophysical odds can safely accommodate glitches. We argue that it is statistically optimal. We demonstrate the method with simulated noise and provide examples to build intuition about this new approach to significance., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, submitted to Phys. Rev. D, v2 fixed typo's

Bayesian parameter estimation is fast becoming the language of gravitational-wave astronomy. It is the method by which gravitational-wave data is used to infer the sources' astrophysical properties. We introduce a user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy, Bilby. This python code provides expert-level parameter estimation infrastructure with straightforward syntax and tools that facilitate use by beginners. It allows users to perform accurate and reliable gravitational-wave parameter estimation on both real, freely-available data from LIGO/Virgo, and simulated data. We provide a suite of examples for the analysis of compact binary mergers and other types of signal model including supernovae and the remnants of binary neutron star mergers. These examples illustrate how to change the signal model, how to implement new likelihood functions, and how to add new detectors. Bilby has additional functionality to do population studies using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. We provide an example in which we infer the shape of the black hole mass distribution from an ensemble of observations of binary black hole mergers., Comment: Submitted for publication

Gravitational-wave (GW) laser interferometers such as Advanced LIGO transduce spacetime strain into optical power fluctuation. Converting this optical power fluctuations back into an estimated spacetime strain requires a calibration process that accounts for both the interferometer's optomechanical response and the feedback control loop used to control the interferometer test masses. Systematic errors in the calibration parameters lead to systematic errors in the GW strain estimate, and hence to systematic errors in the astrophysical parameter estimates in a particular GW signal. In this work we examine this effect for a GW signal similar to GW150914, both for a low-power detector operation similar to the first and second Advanced LIGO observing runs and for a higher-power operation with detuned signal extraction. We set requirements on the accuracy of the calibration such that the astrophysical parameter estimation is limited by errors introduced by random detector noise, rather than calibration systematics. We also examine the impact of systematic calibration errors on the possible detection of a massive graviton.

The problem of reconstructing the sky position of compact binary coalescences detected via gravitational waves is a central one for future observations with the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. Different techniques for sky localisation have been independently developed. They can be divided in two broad categories: fully coherent Bayesian techniques, which are high-latency and aimed at in-depth studies of all the parameters of a source, including sky position, and "triangulation-based" techniques, which exploit the data products from the search stage of the analysis to provide an almost real-time approximation of the posterior probability density function of the sky location of a detection candidate. These techniques have previously been applied to data collected during the last science runs of gravitational-wave detectors operating in the so-called initial configuration. Here, we develop and analyse methods for assessing the self-consistency of parameter estimation methods and carrying out fair comparisons between different algorithms, addressing issues of efficiency and optimality. These methods are general, and can be applied to parameter estimation problems other than sky localisation. We apply these methods to two existing sky localisation techniques representing the two above-mentioned categories, using a set of simulated inspiral-only signals from compact binary systems with total mass $\le 20\,M_\odot$ and non-spinning components. We compare the relative advantages and costs of the two techniques and show that sky location uncertainties are on average a factor $\approx 20$ smaller for fully coherent techniques than for the specific variant of the "triangulation-based" technique used during the last science runs, at the expense of a factor $\approx 1000$ longer processing time.