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Background: We aimed to assess temporal trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global and cross-social demographic index (SDI) levels, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) in 2021. Methods: We used geospatial mapping to visualize the global distribution of T2DM-related mortality and DALYs in 2021. Joinpoint regression assessed annual and average percent changes in DALYs and deaths from 1990 to 2021 across SDI regions. Age-period-cohort modeling examined the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends. Decomposition analysis evaluated the impact of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes on DALY trends. A stratified projection forecasted future T2DM burden by age and sex from 2020 to 2044. Results: T2DM-related mortality and DALYs were highest in low-SDI regions. Globally, T2DM-related deaths and DALYs have increased, with the most rapid rise in low and low-middle SDI regions, driven by population growth and epidemiological shifts. High-SDI countries showed a slower increase in DALYs, influenced more by aging. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated higher DALY rates in later birth cohorts and recent periods, especially in high-SDI regions. Future projections show a significant increase in the 70-74 age group and a gradual rise in other age groups. Conclusion: The burden of T2DM is projected to continue increasing, especially in low-SDI and low-middle SDI regions, where population growth and epidemiological shifts are the main contributors. This underscores the need for targeted, region-specific healthcare policies, preventive strategies, and age-specific interventions to address the increasing T2DM burden globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections can cause a significant disease burden. It is estimated that 1.5 billion people worldwide are infected with STHs, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. This study aimed to assess the distribution of the global burden and trend of STH infections from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 on the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of STH infections for all age groups in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The ASRs of prevalence and DALYs by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were calculated to quantify the spatial distribution and temporal trend. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between ASR and SDI. Results: In 2021, there were an estimated 642.72 million cases and 1.38 million DALYs caused by STH infections worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of STH infections was 8429.89 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 7697.23, 9362.18 ] per 100,000 population globally. The ASPR of STH infections varied across 21 geographic regions in 2021, being mainly prevalent in most African and Latin American locations. The prevalence was higher in the groups of 5–19 years, especially the group of 5–9 years with the ASPR of 16,263 (95% UI: 14,877.06, 18,003.49) and ASR of DALYs of 40.69 (95% UI: 25.98, 60.91) per 100,000. The ASPR of STH infections showed an obvious decreasing trend worldwide (estimated annual percent change = − 4.03, 95% confidence interval: − 4.13, − 3.93) with variations in different species infections during the study years. At the regional level, the ASR of STH infections prevalence (r = − 0.8807, P < 0.0001) and DALYs (r = − 0.9069, P < 0.0001) were negatively correlated with SDI. Conclusions: STH infections remain a public health problem in 2021, particularly in regions such as the middle parts of Africa and Americas, and in the 5–19 age populations. The reduction in the rate of prevalence and the loss of DALYs are negatively correlated with the increase in SDI. Enhancing political commitment, providing accurate preventive chemotherapy, and advancing techniques for surveillance and mapping systems are essential to achieve the target of ending STH infections as a public health problem by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Viral infectious diseases of poverty (vIDPs) remain a significant global health challenge. Despite their profound impact, the burden of these diseases is not comprehensively quantified. This study aims to analyze the global burden of six major vIDPs, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), HIV/AIDS, acute hepatitis, dengue, rabies, and Ebola virus disease (EVD), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Methods: Following the GBD 2021 framework, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of the six vIDPs across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We examined the association between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and the burden of vIDPs. All estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100,000 population, calculated using the Bayesian statistical model employed by GBD 2021, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Results: In 2021, vIDPs caused approximately 8.7 million deaths and 259.2 million DALYs, accounting for 12.8% and 9.0% of the global all-cause totals, respectively. Globally, the burden of vIDPs varied significantly: COVID-19 caused around 7.9 million (95% UI: 7.5, 8.4) deaths and 212.0 million (95% UI 197.9, 234.7) DALYs in 2021. Acute hepatitis had the second-highest age-standardized incidence rate, with 3411.5 (95% UI: 3201.8, 3631.3) per 100,000 population, while HIV/AIDS had a high age-standardized prevalence rate, with 483.1 (95% UI: 459.0, 511.4) per 100,000 population. Dengue incidence cases rose from 26.5 million (95% UI: 3.9, 51.9) in 1990 to 59.0 million (95% UI: 15.5, 106.9) in 2021. Rabies, although reduced in prevalence, continued to pose a significant mortality risk. EVD had the lowest overall burden but significant outbreak impacts. Age-standardized DALY rates for vIDPs were significantly negatively correlated with SDI: acute hepatitis (r = −0.8, P < 0.0001), rabies (r = −0.7, P < 0.0001), HIV/AIDS (r = −0.6, P < 0.0001), COVID-19 (r = −0.5, P < 0.0001), dengue (r = −0.4, P < 0.0001), and EVD (r = −0.2, P < 0.005). Conclusions: VIDPs pose major public health challenges worldwide, with significant regional, age, and gender disparities. The results underscore the need for targeted interventions and international cooperation to mitigate the burden of these diseases. Policymakers can use these findings to implement cost-effective interventions and improve health outcomes, particularly in regions with high or increasing burdens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We analyzed trends in the tracheal, bronchial, and lung (TBL) cancer disease burdens attributable to respiratory system-related risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Material and methods: Based on the results of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we calculated and analyzed the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates and death rates of TBL cancer attributable to total and four individual risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate and death rate of TBL cancer only attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution increased globally, and in all Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, except for high SDI quintiles. Among regions, the most significant increases in those attributable to smoking were seen in East Asia, while those attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution and secondhand smoke were observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. Among countries, the most significant increases in those attributable to smoking were observed in São Tomé and Príncipe (EAPC = 1.76) and Bulgaria (EAPC = 1.90), those attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution were observed in Equatorial Guinea, those attributable to secondhand smoke were found in Lesotho (EAPC = 2.01) and Lebanon (EAPC = 2.13), and those attributable to household air pollution from solid fuels were seen in Mozambique. Conclusions: The burden attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution is increasing, especially in regions such as Western Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and countries such as Equatorial Guinea and Bhutan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study describes the 2010–2019 trend of cervical cancer (CC) in women over 55 by socio‐demographic index (SDI) and geographical regions. Methods: We obtained data on CC annually from 2010 to 2019 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to analyze the incidence, death and prevalence rates, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CC across different parameters such as global trend, age groups, SDI, continents, World Bank Regions, World Health Organization (WHO) regions, GBD regions, and National and territorial division. This analysis covers data from 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Results: There were 236,228 CC incidence cases worldwide in 2019, which is a 1.27‐fold increase from 2010. Global CC deaths also increased to 169,304 cases in 2019, reflecting a 1.24‐fold increase. CC prevalence increased to 769,925 cases in 2019, representing a 1.4‐fold rise. The number of CC DALYs globally increased to 3,835,979 cases in 2019, reflecting a 1.24‐fold increase. Incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers of CC increased across all age groups females in the 65–69 years age group experienced the highest increase. Middle SDI countries had the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, while low SDI countries showed increasing trends. Asia exhibited the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers of CC. Upper middle‐income countries had the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, with the highest decreases in these rates except the prevalence rate. The Western Pacific Region showed the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, with declining rate trends. The Republic of Kiribati showed the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers. Conclusion: Based on the study results, it is clear that although the global trend of epidemiological indicators of CC is decreasing, the largest proportion of the decreasing trend is related to developing countries. But in regions of Africa and Asia that have a lower level of development, sometimes these indicators show upward trends, which shows the worsening of the problem in these regions and the need for serious policies and plans to implement comprehensive vaccination, screening, and promotion interventions. People's awareness is necessary in the field of better disease control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objective This study describes the 2010–2019 trend of cervical cancer (CC) in women over 55 by socio‐demographic index (SDI) and geographical regions. Methods We obtained data on CC annually from 2010 to 2019 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to analyze the incidence, death and prevalence rates, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CC across different parameters such as global trend, age groups, SDI, continents, World Bank Regions, World Health Organization (WHO) regions, GBD regions, and National and territorial division. This analysis covers data from 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Results There were 236,228 CC incidence cases worldwide in 2019, which is a 1.27‐fold increase from 2010. Global CC deaths also increased to 169,304 cases in 2019, reflecting a 1.24‐fold increase. CC prevalence increased to 769,925 cases in 2019, representing a 1.4‐fold rise. The number of CC DALYs globally increased to 3,835,979 cases in 2019, reflecting a 1.24‐fold increase. Incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers of CC increased across all age groups females in the 65–69 years age group experienced the highest increase. Middle SDI countries had the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, while low SDI countries showed increasing trends. Asia exhibited the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers of CC. Upper middle‐income countries had the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, with the highest decreases in these rates except the prevalence rate. The Western Pacific Region showed the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers, with declining rate trends. The Republic of Kiribati showed the highest incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY numbers. Conclusion Based on the study results, it is clear that although the global trend of epidemiological indicators of CC is decreasing, the largest proportion of the decreasing trend is related to developing countries. But in regions of Africa and Asia that have a lower level of development, sometimes these indicators show upward trends, which shows the worsening of the problem in these regions and the need for serious policies and plans to implement comprehensive vaccination, screening, and promotion interventions. People's awareness is necessary in the field of better disease control.

Abstract Background Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections can cause a significant disease burden. It is estimated that 1.5 billion people worldwide are infected with STHs, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. This study aimed to assess the distribution of the global burden and trend of STH infections from 1990 to 2021. Methods We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 on the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of STH infections for all age groups in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. The ASRs of prevalence and DALYs by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were calculated to quantify the spatial distribution and temporal trend. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between ASR and SDI. Results In 2021, there were an estimated 642.72 million cases and 1.38 million DALYs caused by STH infections worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of STH infections was 8429.89 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 7697.23, 9362.18 ] per 100,000 population globally. The ASPR of STH infections varied across 21 geographic regions in 2021, being mainly prevalent in most African and Latin American locations. The prevalence was higher in the groups of 5–19 years, especially the group of 5–9 years with the ASPR of 16,263 (95% UI: 14,877.06, 18,003.49) and ASR of DALYs of 40.69 (95% UI: 25.98, 60.91) per 100,000. The ASPR of STH infections showed an obvious decreasing trend worldwide (estimated annual percent change = − 4.03, 95% confidence interval: − 4.13, − 3.93) with variations in different species infections during the study years. At the regional level, the ASR of STH infections prevalence (r = − 0.8807, P

Abstract Background Viral infectious diseases of poverty (vIDPs) remain a significant global health challenge. Despite their profound impact, the burden of these diseases is not comprehensively quantified. This study aims to analyze the global burden of six major vIDPs, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), HIV/AIDS, acute hepatitis, dengue, rabies, and Ebola virus disease (EVD), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Methods Following the GBD 2021 framework, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of the six vIDPs across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We examined the association between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and the burden of vIDPs. All estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100,000 population, calculated using the Bayesian statistical model employed by GBD 2021, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Results In 2021, vIDPs caused approximately 8.7 million deaths and 259.2 million DALYs, accounting for 12.8% and 9.0% of the global all-cause totals, respectively. Globally, the burden of vIDPs varied significantly: COVID-19 caused around 7.9 million (95% UI: 7.5, 8.4) deaths and 212.0 million (95% UI 197.9, 234.7) DALYs in 2021. Acute hepatitis had the second-highest age-standardized incidence rate, with 3411.5 (95% UI: 3201.8, 3631.3) per 100,000 population, while HIV/AIDS had a high age-standardized prevalence rate, with 483.1 (95% UI: 459.0, 511.4) per 100,000 population. Dengue incidence cases rose from 26.5 million (95% UI: 3.9, 51.9) in 1990 to 59.0 million (95% UI: 15.5, 106.9) in 2021. Rabies, although reduced in prevalence, continued to pose a significant mortality risk. EVD had the lowest overall burden but significant outbreak impacts. Age-standardized DALY rates for vIDPs were significantly negatively correlated with SDI: acute hepatitis (r = −0.8, P

Abstract Background The objective of this study is to evaluate the global burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to High body mass index (HBMI) by utilizing data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Methods This study utilized data from the GBD 2019 to examine the impact of HBMI on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The analysis focused on age-standardized rates and considered a 30-year time frame. Trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Results Since 1990, a significant global increase in IHD attributable to HBMI has been observed. This increase is particularly notable among elderly males and in regions with low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), such as Central Asia and Eastern Europe. In 2019, IHD globally resulted in 1,662,339 deaths and 41,369,773 DALYs. Despite the high age-standardized death rate (20.73 per 100,000) and DALY rate (499.41 per 100,000), a declining trend was noted. This trend is reflected by the EAPCs of -0.35 for DALYs and − 0.67 for deaths. Notably, males and middle SDI countries exhibited higher rates of IHD, whereas high SDI regions such as High-income Asia Pacific and Western Europe showed decreasing trends in IHD. Conclusion Over the past three decades, there has been a significant increase in IHD caused by HBMI, especially in low-middle and low SDI regions. This highlights the importance of targeted interventions in addressing this issue. Notably, regions including Central Asia, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East have been heavily affected.

Abstract Background Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. Conclusion The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Background: Certain infectious diseases are caused by specific bacterial pathogens, including syphilis, gonorrhea, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, leprosy, and tuberculosis. These diseases significantly impact global health, contributing heavily to the disease burden. The study aims to thoroughly evaluate the global burden of syphilis, gonorrhea, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and leprosy. Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, age-specific and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-specific incidence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and death for eight specific bacterial infections across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed. Percentage changes in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), DALY rate, and mortality rate (ASMR) were also examined, with a focus on disease distribution across different regions, age groups, genders, and SDI. Results: By 2021, among the eight diseases, gonococcal infection had the highest global ASIR [1096.58 per 100,000 population, 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 838.70, 1385.47 per 100,000 population], and syphilis had the highest global age-standardized DALY rate (107.13 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 41.77, 212.12 per 100,000 population). Except for syphilis and gonococcal infection, the age-standardized DALY rate of the remaining diseases decreased by at least 55% compared to 1990, with tetanus showing the largest decrease by at least 90%. Globally, significant declines in the ASIR, age-standardized DALY rate, and ASMR for these eight bacterial infections have been observed in association with increases in the SDI. Regions with lower SDI, such as sub-Saharan Africa, experienced a relatively higher burden of these eight bacterial infections. Conclusions: Although there has been an overall decline in these eight diseases, they continue to pose significant public health challenges, particularly in low SDI regions. To further reduce this burden in these areas, targeted intervention strategies are essential, including multi-sectoral collaboration, policy support, improved WASH management, and enhanced research efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objective of this study is to evaluate the global burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to High body mass index (HBMI) by utilizing data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Methods: This study utilized data from the GBD 2019 to examine the impact of HBMI on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The analysis focused on age-standardized rates and considered a 30-year time frame. Trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Results: Since 1990, a significant global increase in IHD attributable to HBMI has been observed. This increase is particularly notable among elderly males and in regions with low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), such as Central Asia and Eastern Europe. In 2019, IHD globally resulted in 1,662,339 deaths and 41,369,773 DALYs. Despite the high age-standardized death rate (20.73 per 100,000) and DALY rate (499.41 per 100,000), a declining trend was noted. This trend is reflected by the EAPCs of -0.35 for DALYs and − 0.67 for deaths. Notably, males and middle SDI countries exhibited higher rates of IHD, whereas high SDI regions such as High-income Asia Pacific and Western Europe showed decreasing trends in IHD. Conclusion: Over the past three decades, there has been a significant increase in IHD caused by HBMI, especially in low-middle and low SDI regions. This highlights the importance of targeted interventions in addressing this issue. Notably, regions including Central Asia, Eastern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East have been heavily affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods: Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. Conclusion: The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metabolic factors are major and controllable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and few studies have described this burden. We aim to assess it from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends through 2034. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides data on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. Numbers, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used. Future trends were estimated by NORDPRED model. The deaths cases of metabolic-related CVD increased from 8.61 million (95% UI: 7.91–9.29) to 13.71 million (95% UI: 12.24–14.94) globally. The ASDR continued to decline globally (EAPC = −1.36). The burden was heavier in male and middle-aged people and elderly people. CVD-related ASDR caused by high systolic blood pressure (SBP) had a downward trend globally (EAPC = −1.45), while trends of high body mass index (BMI) (EAPC = 1.29, 1.97, 0.92) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (EAPC = 0.95, 1.08, 0.46) were increasing in the middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, respectively. Compared to 2015–2019, cumulative deaths will increase by 27.85% from 2030 to 2034, while ASDR will decrease 10.47%. The metabolic-related CVD burden remained high globally and deaths will continue to rise in the future. Men, middle-aged and elderly people were focus of concern. High SBP was globally well-managed over the past 30 years, but the CVD burden due to high BMI and FPG remained high. Exceptional initiatives are needed to regarding interventions targeting high BMI and FPG in middle and lower SDI regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the temporal trend in the quality of cause-of-death data and garbage code profiles and to determine its association with socio-economic status in Serbia. A longitudinal study was assessed using data from mortality registers from 2005 to 2019. Computer application Analysis of Causes of National Deaths for Action (ANACONDA) calculates the distribution of garbage codes by severity and composite quality indicator: Vital Statistics Performance Index for Quality (VSPI(Q)). A relationship between VSPI(Q) and country development was estimated by analysing two socio-economic indicators: the Socio-demographic Index and the Human Development Index (HDI). Serbia indicates progress in strengthening cause-of-death statistics. The steady upward trend of the VSPI(Q) index has risen from 55.6 (medium quality) to 70.2 (high quality) over the examined years. Significant reduction of 'Insufficiently specified causes with limited impact' (Level 4) and an increase in the trend of 'High-impact garbage codes' (Levels 1 to 3) were evident. Decreased deaths of no policy value (annual percentage change of -1.41%) have manifested since 2014. A strong positive association between VSPI(Q) and socio-economic indicators was assessed, where the HDI has shown a stronger association with VSPI(Q). Improved socioeconomic conditions on the national level are followed by enhanced cause-of-death data quality. Upcoming actions to improve quality should be directed at high-impact garbage codes. The study underlines the need to prioritise the education and training of physicians with a crucial role in death certification to overcome many cause-of-death quality issues identified in this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundWe aimed to assess temporal trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) at global and cross-social demographic index (SDI) levels, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) in 2021.MethodsWe used geospatial mapping to visualize the global distribution of T2DM-related mortality and DALYs in 2021. Joinpoint regression assessed annual and average percent changes in DALYs and deaths from 1990 to 2021 across SDI regions. Age-period-cohort modeling examined the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends. Decomposition analysis evaluated the impact of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes on DALY trends. A stratified projection forecasted future T2DM burden by age and sex from 2020 to 2044.ResultsT2DM-related mortality and DALYs were highest in low-SDI regions. Globally, T2DM-related deaths and DALYs have increased, with the most rapid rise in low and low-middle SDI regions, driven by population growth and epidemiological shifts. High-SDI countries showed a slower increase in DALYs, influenced more by aging. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated higher DALY rates in later birth cohorts and recent periods, especially in high-SDI regions. Future projections show a significant increase in the 70-74 age group and a gradual rise in other age groups.ConclusionThe burden of T2DM is projected to continue increasing, especially in low-SDI and low-middle SDI regions, where population growth and epidemiological shifts are the main contributors. This underscores the need for targeted, region-specific healthcare policies, preventive strategies, and age-specific interventions to address the increasing T2DM burden globally.

Aim: We aimed to assess the global implications of low physical activity (LPA) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. Methods: The analysis was conducted by examining the age‐standardized disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) rates over a 30‐year period. To assess the trends, we utilized estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Results: The study revealed a notable increase in the burden of DALYs attributable to T2DM resulting from LPA, with an EAPC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.78‐0.89). Among the regions examined, Oceania showed the highest burden, whereas Eastern Europe exhibited the lowest burden. Specifically, within the Central Asia region, a considerable increase in T2DM‐LPA DALYs was observed, with an EAPC of 3.18 (95% confidence interval 3.01‐3.36). The burden associated with T2DM‐LPA DALYs was found to be similar between genders and increased across all age groups, peaking in the 80‐84 years. Furthermore, there was a clear association between the socio‐demographic index (SDI) and the age‐standardized DALYs rate. Regions categorized as low‐middle and middle SDI experienced a substantial rise in burden. Conclusion: This study highlights a substantial increase in the T2DM‐LPA DALYs in low‐middle and middle SDI regions, as well as among individuals aged 80‐84 years. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing comprehensive global health interventions that promote physical activity, particularly targeting high‐risk populations and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study, drawing on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, examines spatiotemporal trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to aortic aneurysm (AA) from high sodium intake. The aim is a comprehensive analysis globally, regionally, and nationally spanning 1990 to 2019. Quantifying AA deaths and DALYs due to high sodium intake, incorporating age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), revealed a global surge. Deaths rose by 86.09 %, DALYs by 74.02 % from 1990 to 2019. EAPC for ASMR and ASDR displayed negative trends (−0.72 and −0.77). High/middle-high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions bore higher burdens than lower SDI regions. Males consistently had higher burdens across SDI regions, with both genders showing a slight downward trend. Age-wise, AA deaths and DALYs rose with age, followed by decline. A positive correlation existed between SDI and global burden, inversely related to EAPC for ASMR and ASDR. AA burden from high sodium intake is pronounced in high SDI regions, necessitating targeted interventions. The global data highlights a significant increase in AA deaths and DALYs due to high sodium intake, urging prompt and effective control measures. • Deaths and DALY attributable to aortic aneurysm increased globally in 2019 compared with 1990. • From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR and ASDR of aortic aneurysm caused by high sodium intake showed a downward trend worldwide. • SDI is directly proportional to the global burden of aortic aneurysm ASMR and ASDR due to high-sodium diets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study investigates the burden of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) across different geographical locations and time periods from 1990 to 2019. A total of 204 countries and regions are included in the analysis, with consideration given to their socio-demographic indexes (SDI). The aim is to examine both spatial and temporal variations in CKDT2D burden. Methods: This research utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study to evaluate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), DisabilityAdjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) associated with CKD-T2D. Results: Since 1990, there has been a noticeable increase of CKD agestandardized rates due to T2D, with an EAPCs of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.66) for ASIR and an EAPC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.05) for agestandardized DALYs rate. Among these regions, Andean Latin America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D incidence [EAPC: 2.23 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.34) and North America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D DALYs [EAPC: 2.73 (95% CI: 2.39 to 3.07)]. The burden was higher in male and increased across all age groups, peaking at 60-79 years. Furthermore, there was a clear correlation between SDI and age-standardized rates, with regions categorized as middle SDI and High SDI experiencing a significant rise in burden. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD-T2D has significantly risen since 1990, especially among males aged 60-79 years and in regions with middle SDI. It is imperative to implement strategic interventions to effectively address this escalating health challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundRheumatic heart disease (RHD) continues to be a significant global health concern, exhibiting unique regional disparities. Although there is a noted decline in the burden of RHD, the specific causatives for this decrease remain unclear. This study aims to identify and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns related to the RHD-attributable risk burden.MethodsThe data pertaining to deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to RHD risk were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study conducted from 1990 to 2019. These data, categorized by age, gender, and geographical location, highlighted risk factors including diets high in sodium, elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP), and lead exposure. To examine the long-term trends in RHD changes due to these specific risk factors, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) method was used.ResultsDuring the past 30 years, the highest decrease in RHD burden was attributed to high SBP. An AAPC of −2.73 [95% confidence interval (CI): −2.82 to −2.65] and − 2.45 (95% CI: −2.55 to −2.36) in deaths and DALYs was attributable to high SBP, while an AAPC of −3.99 (95% CI: −4.14 to −3.85) and − 3.74 (95% CI: −3.89 to −3.6) in deaths and DALYs was attributed to a diet high in sodium. Moreover, the trends in deaths and DALYs due to lead exposure also showed decreases with an AAPC of −2.94 (95% CI: −3 to −2.89) and − 3.46 (95% CI: −3.58 to −3.34) from 1990 to 2019. Oceania showed an upward trend of the RHD DALYs due to high SBP, with an AAPC of 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.33). In general, countries in Oceania, East Asia, and South Asia had higher age-standard deaths and DALY rates of RHD due to diets high in sodium.ConclusionOur study has revealed that high SBP remains the prime risk factor contributing to the RHD burden. There are decreasing spatiotemporal patterns in RHD-related deaths and burdens. Gaining this knowledge is fundamental to making informed public health strategies and clinical decisions, especially concerning risk assessment, screening, and prevention initiatives.

ObjectivesTo provide valuable insights for targeted interventions and resource allocation, our analysis delved into the multifaceted burden, trends, risks, and projections of multi drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).MethodsThis research employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset, which used a comparative risk assessment to quantify the disease burden resulting from risk factors. Initially, this database was utilized to extract details concerning the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, incidence, and the number of individuals afflicted by MDR-TB. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted using the Joinpoint program to figure average annual percent change (AAPC) to ascertain the trend. Thirdly, the age-period-cohort model (APCM) was adopted to analyze evolutions in incidence and mortality. Finally, utilizing the Nordpred model within R software, we projected the incidence and mortality of MDR-TB from 2020 to 2030.ResultsMDR-TB remained a pressing global health concern in regions with lower socio-demographic indexes (SDI), where the AAPC in DALYs topped 7% from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the cumulative DALYs attributed to MDR-TB tallied up to 4.2 million, with India, the Russian Federation, and China bearing the brunt. Notably, the incidence rates have shown a steadfast presence over the past decade, and a troubling forecast predicts an uptick in these areas from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the risk of contracting MDR-TB grew with advancing age, manifesting most acutely among men aged 40+ in lower SDI regions. Strikingly, alcohol consumption had been identified as a significant contributor, surpassing the impacts of smoking and high fasting plasma glucose, leading to 0.7 million DALYs in 2019.ConclusionsA robust strategy is needed to end tuberculosis (TB) by 2030, especially in lower SDI areas.

Abstract Background and objective Cervical cancer is the most preventable and ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecological cancer. However, in the world, there are disparities in health care performances resulting in differences in the burden of these cancers. The objective of this study was to compare the health-system quality of care and inequities for these cancers using the Quality of Care Index (QCI). Material and methods The 1990–2019 data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) was analyzed to extract rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLD) of cervical and ovarian cancer. Four indices were developed as a proxy for the quality of care using the above-mentioned rates. Thereafter, a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was applied to construct the Quality of Care Index (QCI) as a summary measure of the developed indices. Results The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 1990 to 2019, whereas the incidence of ovarian cancer increased between these years. However, the mortality rate of both cancers decreased in this interval. The global age-standardized QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer were 43.1 and 48.5 in 1990 and increased to 58.5 and 58.4 in 2019, respectively. QCI for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer generally decreased with aging, and different age groups had inequitable QCIs. Higher-income countries generally had higher QCIs for both cancers, but exceptions were also observed. Conclusions Uncovering disparities in cervical and ovarian cancer care across locations, Socio-Demographic Index levels, and age groups necessitate urgent improvements in healthcare systems for equitable care. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions and prompt future research to explore root causes and effective strategies for narrowing these gaps.

Objectives: To analyze and describe the spatiotemporal trends of Low back pain (LBP) burdens from 1990 to 2019 and anticipate the following decade's incidence. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 Study, we described net drifts, local drifts, age effects, and period cohort effects in incidence and forecasted incidence rates and cases by sex from 2020 to 2029 using the Nordpred R package. Results: LBP remained the leading cause of the musculoskeletal disease burden globally and across all socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. China is the top country. For recent periods, high-SDI countries faced unfavorable or worsening risks. The relative risk of incidence showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts amongst low-middle-, middle- and high-middle-SDI countries. Additionally, the agestandardized incidence rates (ASIR) of LBP in both sexes globally showed a decreasing trend, but the incident cases would increase from 223 to 253 million overall in the next decade. Conclusion: As the population ages, incident cases will rise but ASIR will fall. To minimise LBP, public awareness and disease prevention and control are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burns represent important global health problems. Whereas many studies are limited by the difficulties in estimating the burden of burns and instead focus on the causes of burns, such as fire, heat, and hot substances. Therefore, a complete assessment of the burden of all injuries leading to burns is essential to developing reasonable global intervention strategies. Data on three classes of burns, including "< 20 % total burned surface area without lower airway burns" (Moderate injury), "> =20 % total burned surface area or > = 10 % burned surface area if head/neck or hands/wrist involved w/o lower airway burns" (Major injury), "Lower airway burns" (Inhalation injury) were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR-I) and Years Lived with Disability (ASR-YLDs) for burns has been standardized by removing the influence of population size and age structure. They were extracted and stratified by cause, year, sex, age, socio-demographic index, country, and territory. In terms of ASR-I and ASR-YLDs, burns showed a significant decrease from 1990 to 2019, especially for moderate and major injury. In 2019, the burden of moderate injury was positively correlated with socio-demographic index while major injury was negatively correlated (P < 0.05). We found no correlation between socio-demographic index and the burden for inhalation injury (P > 0.05). Fire, heat, and hot substances were the most important cause of burns except for inhalation injury. The most common association with inhalation injury was falls, which were also a major cause of moderate and major injury. The Global Burden of Disease 2019 database data can be used to guide the allocation of resources to reduce ASR-I and ASR-YLDs of different burn classes. • Burns showed a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in terms of ASR-I and ASR-YLDs. • The burden of moderate injury was positively correlated with socioeconomic status and major injury was negatively correlated. • Fire, heat, and hot substances were the most important cause of burns except for inhalation injury. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThis study assesses the changes over time and geographical locations in the disease burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) attributed to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and regions with different socio-demographic indexes (SDI).MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 (GBD2019) database was used to analyze the global burden of T2D attributed to APMP. This study evaluated both the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to T2D, comparing data from 1990 to 2019. Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were also utilized to investigate the trends over the 30-year study period.ResultsThe global age-standardized DALY rate and ASDR exhibited an increasing trend, with an EAPC of 2.21 (95% CI: 2.15 to 2.27) and 1.50 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.58), respectively. This rise was most notable among older adult populations, men, regions in Africa and Asia, as well as low-middle SDI regions. In 2019, the ASDR for T2D caused by APMP was recorded at 2.47 per 100,000 population, while the DALY rate stood at 108.98 per 100,000 population. Males and countries with middle SDI levels displayed significantly high age-standardized death and DALY rates, particularly noticeable in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, regions with high SDI levels like High-income North America demonstrated decreasing trends.ConclusionThis study reveals a significant increase in T2D worldwide as a result of APMP from 1990 to 2019, with a particular emphasis on its impact on men, the older adult, and regions with low to middle SDI levels. These results underscore the urgent necessity for implementing policies aimed at addressing air pollution in order to reduce the prevalence of T2D, especially in the areas most heavily affected.

BackgroundTo describe the burden and examine transnational inequities in overall cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ten specific CVDs across different levels of societal development.MethodsEstimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each disease and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). Inequalities in the distribution of CVD burdens were quantified using two standard metrics recommended absolute and relative inequalities by the World Health Organization (WHO), including the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the relative concentration Index.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, for overall CVD, the Slope Index of Inequality changed from 3760.40 (95% CI: 3758.26 to 3756.53) in 1990 to 3400.38 (95% CI: 3398.64 to 3402.13) in 2019. For ischemic heart disease, it shifted from 2833.18 (95% CI: 2831.67 to 2834.69) in 1990 to 1560.28 (95% CI: 1559.07 to 1561.48) in 2019. Regarding hypertensive heart disease, the figures changed from-82.07 (95% CI: −82.56 to-81.59) in 1990 to 108.99 (95% CI: 108.57 to 109.40) in 2019. Regarding cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, the data evolved from 273.05 (95% CI: 272.62 to 273.47) in 1990 to 250.76 (95% CI: 250.42 to 251.09) in 2019. Concerning aortic aneurysm, the index transitioned from 104.91 (95% CI: 104.65 to 105.17) in 1990 to 91.14 (95% CI: 90.94 to 91.35) in 2019. Pertaining to endocarditis, the figures shifted from-4.50 (95% CI: −4.64 to-4.36) in 1990 to 16.00 (95% CI: 15.88 to 16.12) in 2019. As for rheumatic heart disease, the data transitioned from-345.95 (95% CI: −346.47 to-345.42) in 1990 to-204.34 (95% CI: −204.67 to-204.01) in 2019. Moreover, the relative concentration Index for overall CVD and each specific type also varied from 1990 to 2019.ConclusionThere’s significant heterogeneity in transnational health inequality for ten specific CVDs. Countries with higher levels of societal development may bear a relatively higher CVD burden except for rheumatic heart disease, with the extent of inequality changing over time.

Abstract Background Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies. Methods Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD. Results In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36–1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were − 0.60 (95% UI − 0.73 to − 0.48), − 0.69 (95% UI − 0.81 to − 0.57), and − 1.04 (95% UI − 1.06 to − 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data. Conclusion Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts.

Abstract Background Many countries and regions have experienced male fertility problems due to various influencing factors, especially in less developed countries. Unlike female infertility, male infertility receives insufficient attention. Understanding the changing patterns of male infertility in the world, different regions and different countries is crucial for assessing the global male fertility and reproductive health. Methods We obtained data on prevalence, years of life lived with disability (YLD), age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR) and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We analyzed the burden of male infertility at all levels, including global, regional, national, age stratification and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results In 2019, the global prevalence of male infertility was estimated to be 56,530.4 thousand (95% UI: 31,861.5–90,211.7), reflecting a substantial 76.9% increase since 1990. Furthermore, the global ASPR stood at 1,402.98 (95% UI: 792.24–2,242.45) per 100,000 population in 2019, representing a 19% increase compared to 1990. The regions with the highest ASPR and ASYR for male infertility in 2019 were Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. Notably, the prevalence and YLD related to male infertility peaked in the 30–34 year age group worldwide. Additionally, the burden of male infertility in the High-middle SDI and Middle SDI regions exceeded the global average in terms of both ASPR and ASYR. Conclusion The global burden of male infertility has exhibited a steady increase from 1990 to 2019, as evidenced by the rising trends in ASPR and ASYR, particularly in the High-middle and Middle SDI regions. Notably, the burden of male infertility in these regions far exceeds the global average. Additionally, since 2010, there has been a notable upward trend in the burden of male infertility in Low and Middle-low SDI regions. Given these findings, it is imperative to prioritize efforts aimed at improving male fertility and reproductive health.

Introduction The aim of the study was to examine the burden of uterine fibroids at global, regional and national levels in terms of age and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Material and methods Data were extracted from the GBD 2019 dataset. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the incidence of uterine fibroids, and trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were examined. All measures examined were stratified by region, country, age and SDI to assess the effects of these variables on the incidence of uterine fibroids. Results The global age-standardized incidence rate of uterine fibroids increased from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 0.25 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.24 to 0.27). In contrast, the global age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of –0.27 (95% CI: –0.31 to –0.23). High and low-middle SDI regions experienced significantly higher age-standardized incidence rates. Moreover, in 2019, low and low-middle SDI regions had significantly higher age-standardized DALY rates due to uterine fibroids than other SDI regions. Regionally, Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardized incidence rate of uterine fibroids in 2019, and Tropical Latin America experienced the greatest increase in age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019. Nationally, Brazil (EAPC = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.35–1.57) and India (EAPC = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.94–1.25) experienced the most significant increases in age-standardized uterine fibroid incidence. Age-standardized DALY rates increased the most in Tropical Latin America, high-income North America and Oceania. Conclusions Globally, the age-standardized incidence of uterine fibroids has been increasing in recent years. In contrast, age-standardized DALY rates have exhibited a decreasing trend. Eastern Europe, Tropical Latin America, Brazil and India experience the greatest uterine fibroid burden. Globally, women aged 35–39 years and older have an increased risk of uterine fibroids, as reflected in the higher incidence rates among these age groups.

ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate.ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030.ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.

Purpose: To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40–49 years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. Methods: We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10 years. Results: In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40–44 years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50–12.59), 4.35 (4.01–4.70), 72.63 (66.48–79.52), 209.82 (193.55–226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45–49 years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97–21.54), 7.76 (7.16–8.41), 121.73 (110.99–133.84), and 335.83 (310.14–362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10 years. Conclusion: The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40–49 years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD. Results: In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36–1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were − 0.60 (95% UI − 0.73 to − 0.48), − 0.69 (95% UI − 0.81 to − 0.57), and − 1.04 (95% UI − 1.06 to − 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data. Conclusion: Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevated risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) is associated with exposure to fine particulate matter. However, there is limited data on trends and comparisons in the global burden of IHD due to household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP) and ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP), particularly in regions of varying socio-economic levels. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we obtained age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) of IHD due to APMP and HAP from 1990 to 2019. Trends in the burden of IHD attributable to APMP and HAP during the period 1990 to 2019 were calculated by Joinpoint models. We estimated the relationship between ASMR with the socio-demographic indexes (SDI) and the health care accessibility and quality (HAQ) index by the Loess regression model. In 2019, the global burden of IHD ASMR attributed to APMP stabilized, but the most significant increases were observed in low-middle SDI regions. The global IHD ASMR attributed to APMP was 16.60 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI), 13.61 to 19.44] per 100,000 population, with the highest APMP burden in middle SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASMR for HAP-attributable IHD declined. The global ASMR of IHD attributable to HAP in 2019 was 6.30 (95% UI, 4.28 to 8.80) per 100,000 population, with the highest burden observed in the low SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of ASMR and ASDR of IHD attributable to APMP showed stabilization, whereas the HAP burden exhibited a decrease. There are a large burden of APMP particularly in middle SDI countries and a higher burden of HAP in low SDI countries. The burden of IHD due to APMP and HAP in men, the elderly, and populations in low, medium, and low SDI regions should be noticed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 reveals an increasing prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. This study delves into the role of dietary risk factors across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. Utilizing data from the GBD 2019, it analyzes age-adjusted T2DM metrics—death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs)—stratified by age, sex, and region. The study employed Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to track trends over time. The results show that in 2019, 26.07% of T2DM mortality and 27.08% of T2DM DALYs were attributable to poor diets, particularly those low in fruits and high in red and processed meats. There was a marked increase in both the death rate and DALY rate associated with dietary risks over this period, indicating the significant impact of dietary factors on the global T2DM landscape. Geographic variations in T2DM trends were significant, with regions like Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia experiencing the most substantial increases in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) and Age-Standardized DALY Rate (ASDR). A positive correlation was noted between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and T2DM burden due to dietary risk factors. The study concludes that targeted public health initiatives promoting dietary changes could substantially reduce the global T2DM burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To determine the global and regional burden of stroke due to high temperature and the spatiotemporal trends in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for stroke attributable to high temperature (i.e. a daily mean temperature warmer than the theoretical minimum-risk exposure level (TMREL)) were calculated in global, geographical location, and country and analyzed by age, sex, subtypes, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. The trends in ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019 were estimated by linear regression model. The regression coefficients (β) referred to a mean change of per year for ASMR or ASDR attributable to high temperature. Results: The global burden of stroke attributable to high temperature had an increase trend from 1990 to 2019 (β = 0.005, 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 0.003–0.007 for ASMR and β = 0.104, 95% UI = 0.066–0.142 for ASDR, respectively). Globally, in 2019, an estimated 0.048 million deaths and 1.01 million DALYs of stroke were attributable to high temperature, and the global ASMR and ASDR of stroke attributable to high temperature were 0.60 (95% UI = 0.07–1.30) and 13.31 (1.40–28.97) per 100,000 population, respectively. The largest burden occurred in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by South Asia, Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East. ASMR and ASDR increased with age and were higher in males and for intracerebral hemorrhage, and were the highest in the low SDI regions. In 2019, the region with the largest percentage increase in ASMR and ASDR attributable to high temperature was Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2019. Conclusions: Stroke burden due to high temperature has been increasing, and a higher burden was observed in people aged 65–75 years, males, and countries with a low SDI. Stroke burden attributable to high temperature constitutes a major global public health concern in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the context of the population growing and aging worldwide, the incidence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease increased rapidly. This study aimed to describe the burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, providing an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis on the global and regional levels and time trends from 1900 to 2019. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to obtain data for this analysis. Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in the Global Burden of Disease study includes both non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease and non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease. The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by location, year, sex, age, and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage change was calculated to represent the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Spearman's rank order correlation was used to determine the correlation between socio-demographic index and the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Results: Globally, there were 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval, 1.56–1.76 million) incident cases, 0.16 million (95% uncertainty interval, 0.14–0.18 million) death cases, and 2.79 million (95% uncertainty interval, 2.52–3.31 million) disability-adjusted life years of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, death cases, and disability-adjusted life years in 2019 increased by 104.58%, 210.60%, and 167.62%, respectively, the age-standardized incidence rate (estimated annual percentage change, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.49) increased due to population growth, and the age-standardized death rates (estimated annual percentage change, −0.32; 95% confidence interval, −0.39 to −0.25) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (estimated annual percentage change, −0.81; 95% confidence interval, −0.87 to −0.74) decreased during this period. Regarding the socio-demographic index, the highest age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease were found in high-socio-demographic index countries in 2019. Meantime, the age-standardized incidence rate remained increased from 1990 to 2019, while significant decreases were found in the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. Females have higher age-standardized incidence rate, while higher age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate belong to males globally during the period of 1990–2019. Increasing trends were observed for both incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates with age. High systolic blood pressure was the leading cause for non-rheumatic valvular heart disease across all ages. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease remained increased, while age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate decreased, resulting from the growing population worldwide and improving medical resources. The aged, who has high systolic blood pressure and diet high in sodium, should pay more attention to, especially in high-socio-demographic index regions. With the population aging, the number of patients who require heart valve replacement is estimated to increase significantly in the future. Effective measures are warranted to control and treat the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstracts: Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease and ranks 13th among the leading causes of death worldwide. In this study, we aimed to report the burden of TB in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods: Annual death number, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (ASDR) with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of TB were derived from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 for the time period between 1990 and 2019. The association between the burden of TB and SDI was also investigated. Results: The total death number related to TB decreased by 33.6%, from 1777.5 in 1990–1179.8 in 2019, per 1000 individuals. The global ASMR and ASDR for TB were 14.64 (13.39–16.03) and 590.42 (536.85–646.42), which were 63.5% and 62.8% lower than in 1990, respectively. South Asia, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest number of TB deaths in 2019. Central Sub-Saharan Africa was the region with the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. India had the highest number of TB deaths, and the Central African Republic and Switzerland had the highest and lowest ASMR per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The number of deaths and DALYs were higher in males than in females and the ASDR significantly increased from the 10–14-year-old age group to the 80–84-year-old age group in both sexes. Most cases of TB were caused by drug-susceptible TB. A negative association between the regional SDI and the ASDR of TB was found. Conclusions: From 1990–2019, TB death number, ASMR, and ASDR decreased. It is important to note that, despite the decreasing burden of TB, it remains a major public health problem, especially in low SDI countries. It is necessary to design and implement suitable strategies to address the current situation.

ObjectiveTo compare the trend in disease burden of anxiety disorders between China and global regions with different socio-demographic index (SDI) in 1990 and 2019 for providing evidence to rational allocation of health resources and formulation of anxiety prevention and control strategies. MethodsThe study data were from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019). Incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), age-standardized incidence, age-standardized prevalence, and age-standardized YLDs rate were applied to compare the disease burden of anxiety disorders and its changing trend among residents in China to those of residents in global regions with different SDI in 1990 and 2019. ResultsAmong Chinese residents, the incidence number and YLDs of anxiety disorders increased from 6 667 495 and 4 045 138 person-years in 1990 to 7 285 634 and 4 574 328 person-years in 2019, with the increase rates of 9.37% and 13.08%, respectively. Compared with those in the residents of global regions with different SDI, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized YLDs rate of anxiety disorders in China in 1990 and 2019 were all at low levels and showed decreasing trend; the age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 556.56/100 000 to 522.97/100000, with a change rate of − 6.03%; the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased from 3507.31/100 000 to 3 164.18/ 100 000, with a change rate of − 9.78%; the age-standardized YLDs rate decreased from 337.47/100000 to 306.02 /100000, with a change rate of − 9.32%. In contrast, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized YLDs rate of anxiety disorders among populations in the global regions with high SDI were all at high levels and increased from 679.46/100 000, 4637.21/100 000, and 441.19/100 000 in 1990 to 710.54/100 000, 4 806.55/100 000 and 456.89/100 000 in 2019, with the changing rates of 4.57%, 3.65%, and 3.56%. In 1990 and 2019, the burden of anxiety disorders in female residents in China and in global regions with different SDI were much higher than that in male residents. In comparison with those in the males, higher age-standardized rates (for 100 000 population) were observed in the females in China and in global regions with high SDI when examining anxiety disorders′ incidence (630.04 vs. 425.33 and 837.43 vs. 591.16), prevalence (3 912.33 vs. 2 453.91 and 6 168.67 vs. 3 482.78), and YLDs (377.20 vs. 238.88 and 582.82 vs. 334.80). ConclusionCompared with the residents in global regions with different SDI, the disease burden of anxiety disorders among Chinese residents decreased greatly from 1990 to 2019 and the disease burden was heavier in the female populations than in the male populations both in China and in global regions with different SDI.

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a type of bizarre adverse drug reaction (ADR) damaging liver (L-ADR) which may lead to substantial hospitalizations and mortality. Due to the general low incidence, detection of L-ADR remains an unsolved public health challenge. Therefore, we used the data of 6.673 million of ADR reports from January 1st, 2012 to December 31st, 2016 in China National ADR Monitoring System to establish a new database of L-ADR reports for future investigation. Results showed that totally 114,357 ADR reports were retrieved by keywords searching of liver-related injuries from the original heterogeneous system. By cleaning and standardizing the data fields by the dictionary of synonyms and English translation, we resulted 94,593 ADR records reported to liver injury and then created a new database ready for computer mining. The reporting status of L-ADR showed a persistent 1.62-fold change over the past five years. The national population-adjusted reporting numbers of L-ADR manifested an upward trend with age increasing and more evident in men. The annual reporting rate of L-ADR in age group over 80 years old strikingly exceeded the annual DILI incidence rate in general population, despite known underreporting situation in spontaneous ADR reporting system. The percentage of herbal and traditional medicines (H/TM) L-ADR reports in the whole number was 4.5%, while 80.60% of the H/TM reports were new findings. There was great geographical disparity of reported agents, i.e. more cardiovascular and antineoplastic agents were reported in higher socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and more antimicrobials, especially antitubercular agents, were reported in lower SDI regions. In conclusion, this study presented a large-scale, unbiased, unified, and computer-minable L-ADR database for further investigation. Age-, sex- and SDI-related risks of L-ADR incidence warrant to emphasize the precise pharmacovigilance policies within China or other regions in the world.

Abstract Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a preventable and treatable disease that is characterised by persistent respiratory symptoms and airflow limitation. The present study reported the burden of COPD, and its attributable risk factors, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study were used to report the burden of COPD in the MENA countries. The prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population, with their associated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results In 2019, the regional age-standardised point prevalence and rates of death due to COPD were 2333.9 (2230.1, 2443.6) and 26.1 (22.2, 29.5) per 100,000, which represent a 30.6% (28.2%, 33.0%) increase and an 18.0% (2.8%, 30.9%) decrease, respectively, since 1990. The regional age-standardised DALY rate in 2019 was 649.1 (574.6, 717.7) per 100,000, which had decreased by 11.8% (0.9%, 21.1%) since 1990. Turkey had the highest age-standardised point prevalence in 2019 [3287.1 (3187.4, 3380.3)], while Afghanistan had the highest age-standardised death [40.4 (24.2, 52.6)] and DALY [964.5 (681.8, 1203.2)] rates. The regional age-standardised point prevalence, death and DALY rates in 2019 increased with advancing age and were higher in males in almost all age groups. There was a U-shaped association between SDI and the burden of COPD over the period 1990 to 2019. Moreover, in 2019 smoking (43.7%), ambient particulate matter pollution (22.8%) and occupational particulate matter (11.4%) had the largest proportion of attributable DALYs for both sexes. Conclusions COPD is one of the leading causes of death and disability in the MENA region, although the age-standardised burden has decreased over the last 30 years. Nevertheless, COPD accounted for a substantial number of deaths and DALYs, especially among the elderly. Programs targeting risk factors, like smoking, should be taken into consideration.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the third leading cause of death worldwide. As the traditional risk factors (like smoking and ambient air pollution) on the burden of COPD being well characterized, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature has been widely concerned. In this study, we extracted the relevant burden data of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature from GBD 2019 and adopted estimated annual percent changes, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and age-period-cohort model to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns, relationships with socio-demographic level, and the independent effects of age, period and cohort from 1990 to 2019. In brief, the global COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures showed declining trends but was still more severe in the elderly, males, Asia, and regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI). And cold had a greater burden than heat. The inverted U-shape is expected for the relationship between SDI and the burden of COPD caused by non-optimal temperatures according to the GPR model, with the inflection point around SDI 0.45. Besides, the improvements were observed in period and cohort effects but were relatively limited in low and low-middle SDI regions. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen this burden predominantly among lower SDI countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundTo evaluate the changes in the global burden of foreign body aspiration (FBA) among children under 5 years old at regional, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels between 1990 and 2019.MethodsData on FBA was derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 database on pulmonary aspiration and foreign body in airway. The means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The temporal trends were represented by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) using Joinpoint regression.ResultsGlobally, FBA caused 109.6 (95% UI: 69.5, 175.7) per 100,000 incidence and 317.9 (95% UI: 270.7, 372.4) per 100,000 DALYs under 5 years old in 2019. Many European countries (such as Italy, Netherlands, Iceland, etc.) showed a high incidence rate, but did not cause a large disease burden (DALYs all less than 200 per 100,000). Compared to 1990, although a decrease in both incidence and DALYs occurred in 2019, the Joinpoint regression showed an increasing trend in incidence rate from 2014 to 2019 [APC: both (2.10), female (2.25), male (1.98), P

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease and ranks 13th among the leading causes of death worldwide. In this study, we aimed to report the burden of TB in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Annual death number, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (ASDR) with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of TB were derived from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 for the time period between 1990 and 2019. The association between the burden of TB and SDI was also investigated. The total death number related to TB decreased by 33.6%, from 1777.5 in 1990–1179.8 in 2019, per 1000 individuals. The global ASMR and ASDR for TB were 14.64 (13.39–16.03) and 590.42 (536.85–646.42), which were 63.5% and 62.8% lower than in 1990, respectively. South Asia, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest number of TB deaths in 2019. Central Sub-Saharan Africa was the region with the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. India had the highest number of TB deaths, and the Central African Republic and Switzerland had the highest and lowest ASMR per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The number of deaths and DALYs were higher in males than in females and the ASDR significantly increased from the 10–14-year-old age group to the 80–84-year-old age group in both sexes. Most cases of TB were caused by drug-susceptible TB. A negative association between the regional SDI and the ASDR of TB was found. From 1990–2019, TB death number, ASMR, and ASDR decreased. It is important to note that, despite the decreasing burden of TB, it remains a major public health problem, especially in low SDI countries. It is necessary to design and implement suitable strategies to address the current situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing attention has recently been paid to the harm of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) to women. However, due to the inconsistency of global clinical diagnostic standards and the differing allocation of medical resources among different regions, there is a lack of comprehensive estimation of the global incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of PCOS. Thus, it is difficult to assess the disease burden. We extracted PCOS disease data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and estimated the incidence, DALYs, and the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) of PCOS, as well as the socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, to describe epidemiological trends at the global level, encompassing 21 regions and 204 countries and territories. Globally, the incidence and DALYs of PCOS have increased. Its ASR also shows an increasing trend. Among them, the high SDI quintile seems relatively stable, whereas other SDI quintiles are constantly rising over time. Our research has provided clues regarding the disease pattern and epidemic trend of PCOS and analyzed the possible causes of disease burden in some specific countries and territories, which may have some value in health resource allocation and health policy formulation and prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background To understand the magnitude and spatial–temporal distribution of the regional burden attributable to severe mental disorders is of great essential and high policy relevance. The study aimed to address the burden of severe mental disorders by evaluating the years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Guangdong, China. Methods We undertook a longitudinal study based on a multicenter database established by the Health Commission of Guangdong, involving a total of 21 prefectures and four economic regions in the Guangdong province. A total of 520,731 medical records from patients with severe mental disorders were collected for 2010–2020. Data were analyzed via an integrated evaluation framework by synthesizing prevalence estimates, epidemiological adjustment as well as comorbidity assessment to develop internally consistent estimates of DALY. DALY changes during 2010–2020 were decomposed by population growth and aging and further grouped by Socio-demographic Index (SDI). DALYs were projected to 2030 by the weighted median annualized rate of change in 2010–2020. Results In 2010–2020, the average DALYs for severe mental disorders reached 798,474 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 536,280–1,270,465) person-years (52.2% for males, and 47.8% for females). Severe mental disorders led to a great amount of disease burden, especially in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan cities. Schizophrenia and mental retardation with mental disorders were the two leading sources of the burden ascribed to severe mental disorders. Population growth and aging could be accountable for the increasing burden of severe mental disorders. Economic regions with higher SDI carried a greater burden but had lower annualized rates of change in DALYs. The overall burden of severe mental disorders is projected to rise modestly over the next decade. Conclusions The findings urge prioritization of initiatives focused on public mental health, prevention strategies, health resources reallocation, and active involvement of authorities to effectively address the anticipated needs.

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden caused by main NCDs along the socio-economic development.Methods: We extracted relevant data from GBD 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes, quantile regression and limited cubic splines were adopted to estimate temporal trends and relationships with socio-demographic index.Results: NCDs accounted for 74.36% of global all-cause deaths in 2019. The main NCDs diseases were estimated for cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases, with deaths of 18.56 (17.08–19.72) million, 10.08 (9.41–10.66) million and 3.97 (3.58–4.30) million, respectively. The death burden of three diseases gradually decreased globally over time. Regional and sex variations existed worldwide. Besides, the death burden of CVD showed the inverted U-shaped associations with SDI, while neoplasms were positively correlated with SDI, and CRD showed the negative association.Conclusion: NCDs remain a crucial public health issue worldwide, though several favorable trends of CVD, neoplasms and CRD were observed. Regional and sex disparities still existed. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen NCDs burden, predominantly among lower SDI countries.