Search

The effects of a mean flow with vertical shear on the convective motions in a rotating layer are examined using a three-dimensional and time-dependent numerical model. In the absence of rotation, the convective motions are shown to be dominated by the shear flow when the Richardson number becomes greater than about -1.0. Both heat and momentum are carried down their respective gradients. For rotating cases with vertical rotation vectors, the Coriolis force turns the flow induced by the convection to produce a more complicated shear that changes direction with height. For rotating cases with tilted rotation vectors, the results depend on the direction of the shear. When the imposed flow is in the opposite direction, the convection motions are less energetic and are even suppressed entirely when the shear is strong. When the imposed flow is in the same direction, as that produced by the rotation, the convective motions are enhanced and a countergradient flux of momentum can be produced.

Oceanic cloud variability and sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) were examined using radiometer data gathered with instrumentation on the Nimbus-7 satellite. The study area was a region of the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii. SST and albedo data for the period 1978-1983 were compared and similar trends were found for minimal values of the albedo and SST.

Skillful numerical predictions of midlatitude atmospheric planetary waves generally require both tropical data for the initial conditions and a global domain for the forecast model. The lack of either adequate tropical observations or a global domain typically leads to a significant degradation of forecast skill in middle latitudes within the first one to three days of the forecast period. These effects were first discovered by numerical experimentation. They were subsequently explained theoretically, and their importance for practical forecasting was confirmed in a series of prediction experiments using FGGE data.

A radiative-convective equilibrium model is developed and applied to study cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem. The basic hypothesis is that in the warmer and moister CO2-rich atmosphere, cloud liquid water content will generally be larger than at present, so that cloud optical thickness will be larger too. For clouds other than thin cirrus, the result is to increase the albedo more than to increase the greenhouse effect. Thus the sign of the feedback is negative: cloud optical properties alter in such a way as to reduce the surface and tropospheric warming caused by the addition of CO2. This negative feedback can be substantial. When observational estimates of the temperature dependence of cloud liquid water content are employed in the model, the surface temperature change due to doubling CO2 is reduced by about one half.

Papers are presented on such topics as the use of semi-Lagrangian advective schemes in meteorological modeling; computation with high-resolution upwind schemes for hyperbolic equations; dynamics of flame propagation in a turbulent field; a modified finite element method for solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations; computational fusion magnetohydrodynamics; and a nonoscillatory shock capturing scheme using flux-limited dissipation. Consideration is also given to the use of spectral techniques in numerical weather prediction; numerical methods for the incorporation of mountains in atmospheric models; techniques for the numerical simulation of large-scale eddies in geophysical fluid dynamics; high-resolution TVD schemes using flux limiters; upwind-difference methods for aerodynamic problems governed by the Euler equations; and an MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere.

Three-dimensional time-dependent convection in a plane layer of fluid, uniformly heated from below and subject to vertical shear and to rotation about an axis tilted from the vertical, was simulated by the numerical solution of the Boussinesq equations, including all Coriolis terms. Rotation about a vertical axis produces smaller convection cells with diminished heat fluxes and considerable vorticity. When the rotation axis is tilted from the vertical to represent tropical latitudes, the convection cells become elongated in a N-S direction. Imposed flows with constant vertical shear produce convective rolls aligned with the mean flow. When the rotation vector is tilted from the vertical, the competing effects due to rotation and shear can stabilize the convective motions.

The goal is to utilize predictability theory and numerical experimentation to identify and understand some of the dynamical processes which must be modeled more realistically if large-scale numerical weather predictions are to be improved. The emphasis is on the use of relatively simple models to exlore the properties of physically comprehensive general circulation models (GCM's). A global linear quasi-geostrophic model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) GCM were used to investigate several mechanisms which are responsible for the decay of large-scale forecast skill in mid-latitude numerical weather predictions. Five-day forecasts for an ensemble of cases were made using First GARP Global Experiment data. It was found that forecast skill depends crucially on the specification of the stationary forcing. A lack of stationary forcing leads to spurious westwad propagation of the ultralong waves. Forecasts made with stationary forcings derived from climatological data are superior to those using forcings inferred from observations immediately preceding the forecast period. Interhemispheric forecast differences were analyzed, and the model errors were compared to errors of a simple persistence-damped-to-climatology scheme and to errors of the GLAS GCM.

A radiative-convective equilibrium model is developed and applied to study cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem. The basic hypothesis is that in the warmer and moister CO2-rich atmosphere, cloud liquid water content will generally be larger too. For clouds other than thin cirrus the result is to increase the albedo more than to increase the greenhouse effect. Thus, the sign of the feedback is negative: cloud optical properties act as a thermostat and alter in such a way as to reduce the surface and tropospheric warming caused by the addition of CO2. This negative feedback can be substantial. When observational estimates of the temperature dependence of cloud liquid water content are employed in the model, the surface temperature change caused by doubling CO2 is reduced by about one half. This result is obtained for global and annual average conditions, no change in cloud amount or altitude, and constant relative humidity. These idealizations, together with other simplifications typical of one-dimensional radiative-convective climate models, render the result tentative. Further study of cloud optical property feedbacks is warranted, however, because the climate is apparently so sensitive to them.

An attempt is made to determine the way in which errors appear in the ultralong waves of numerical weather prediction models, as well as the means by which such errors may be alleviated. Such efforts to improve the numerical forecasting of planetary waves derive their importance from the fact that energetic large scale phenomena are the basis for prospective improvements in extended range forecasting. A simple, linear, quasi-geostrophic and barotropic model is presently used in real data forecast simulations to explore, in an idealized context, several effects that may clarify discrepancies betweeen predictability theory and the performance of current numerical weather prediction models. Attention is given to the degree to which discrepancies may be accounted for by linear theory.

A global quasi-geostrophic barotropic model, including orography, zonal forcing, and frictional dissipation, is compared to two hemispheric models, one with antisymmetric equatorial boundary conditions and one with symmetric boundary conditions. The stationary solutions in the global model and the hemispheric models are found to be different, because the hemispheric models lack either the symmetric or antisymmetric waves, and because the nonlinear feedbacks are much larger in the hemispheric models. Time-dependent calculations show that the hemispheric models can excite anomalous Rossby waves and can produce erroneous short-range forecasts in middle latitudes. It is concluded that global models are preferred for making both short-range and long-range forecasts for middle latitudes.

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

A finite difference scheme for solving the equations of fluid motion in a generalized coordinate system has been constructed. The scheme conserves mass and all the first integral moments of the motion. The scheme also advectively 'almost conserves' second moments, in that the magnitude of implicit numerical smoothing is typically about an order smaller than explicit viscosity and diffusion. Calculations with the model support the theoretical conjecture that the difference scheme is stable whenever the analogous Cartesian scheme is stable. The scheme has been used to calculate dry atmospheric convection due to differential heating between top and bottom of mountainous terrain. The general small-scale characteristics of mountain up-slope winds have been simulated. In addition, the results have demonstrated the crucial role played by the eddy diffusivities and the environmental stability, in determining both the quantitative and the qualitative features of the circulation.

The equations of fluid motion have been formulated in a generalized noncartesian, nonorthogonal coordinate system. A particular coordinate transformation, which transforms a domain with an irregular lower boundary into a cube, has been constructed. The transformed system, unlike the original one, has flat boundaries and homogeneous boundary conditions. Where the topography is flat, the original and transformed system are identical, and extra terms do not appear. A finite difference scheme for solving the transformed equations has been constructed and will be described later.

A set of numerical experiments was conducted to test the short-range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day sets of integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model.

Large numerical atmospheric circulation models are in increasingly widespread use both for operational weather forecasting and for meteorological research. The results presented here are from a model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and described in detail by Somerville et al. (1974). This model is representative of a class of models, recently surveyed by the Global Atmospheric Research Program (1974), designed to simulate the time-dependent, three-dimensional, large-scale dynamics of the earth's atmosphere.

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Several experiments are described in which the sub-grid-scale vertical eddy viscosity in the GISS global general circulation model was varied. The results show that large viscosities suppress large-scale eddies in middle and high latitudes, but enhance the circulation in the tropical Hadley cell and increase the extent of the tropical easterlies. Comparison with observations shows that the GISS model requires eddy viscosities about 1 sq m per sec or less to give realistic results for middle and high latitudes, and eddy viscosities about 100 sq m per sec to give realistic results for low latitudes. A plausible mechanism for the implied increase in small-scale mixing in low latitudes is cumulus convection.

Set of numerical experiments has been carried out to test the short range sensitivity of a large atmospheric general circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. On the basis of the results of 12-day integrations with very large variations in these parameters, it is concluded that realistic variations would produce insignificant meteorological effects. Thus any causal relationships between solar variability and weather, for time scales of two weeks or less, will have to rely upon changes in parameters other than solar constant or ozone amounts, or upon mechanisms not yet incorporated in the model.

A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

A Boussinesq system is integrated numerically in three dimensions and time in a study of nonhydrostatic convection in the atmosphere. Simulation of cloud convection is achieved by the inclusion of parametrized effects of latent heat and small-scale turbulence. The results are compared with the cell structure observed in Rayleigh-Benard laboratory conversion experiments in air. At a Rayleigh number of 4000, the numerical model adequately simulates the experimentally observed evolution, including some prominent transients of a flow from a randomly perturbed initial conductive state into the final state of steady large-amplitude two-dimensional rolls. At Rayleigh number 9000, the model reproduces the experimentally observed unsteady equilibrium of vertically coherent oscillatory waves superimposed on rolls.