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Clay shrink-swell consists in volume changes of clayey, smectite-rich soils as a function of their soil water content. Building foundations can be affected by soil shrinkage during droughts, entailing what is called subsidence damage. This is the second costliest peril covered by the French national natural disaster compensation scheme, the losses amounting to more than 16B€ between 1989 and 2021 (CCR, 2021). As illustrated by the 2022 drought in France, these costs are likely to increase as a result of climate change and of the related amplification of annual soil moisture cycles.In this context, we investigate the relationship between drought and subsidence damage, using the ISBA land surface model developed by the French meteorological service (Météo-France), geotechnical data from the French geological survey (BRGM) and data from a national claim database operated by the French state-owned national reinsurance company (CCR). We compute several yearly drought indices based on multi-layer soil moisture time series simulated by the ISBA model. Different configurations of the indices are considered, varying in particular the ISBA model settings, and the soil drought definition through a threshold value accounting for a given temporal frequency, for each model soil layer. We assess a large range of configurations by using the Kendall rank correlation of the indices with yearly town-scale insurance claim data from 2000 to 2018, processed using the geotechnical data. The analysis is repeated for five sets of four towns with an important damage history distributed throughout France, in contrasting climate conditions.Highest rank correlation coefficients are obtained for soil layers deeper than 60 cm, and with temporal frequency threshold values corresponding to intense droughts. Under these conditions, the indices are able to fairly represent the occurrence of damages. The relationship between drought indices and the number of claims is non-linear. This study benefits from the latest improvements in land surface modeling and is a step forwards in climate risk modeling since the indices investigated can be considered as new predictors for subsidence damage. Climate change impact studies will be conducted in a next phase.[References] CCR: Les Catastrophes naturelles en France, Bilan 1982-2021, 2021.

In this work, we use a probabilistic approach for modelling rainfall thresholds (Caine 1980) triggering shallow landslides with a case study for the Alpes-Maritimes region (France).In particular, the CTRL-T algorithm (Melillo and al. 2018) is tested to output critical rainfall thresholds, based on the accumulated rainfall – duration parameters (E-D), for different exceedance probabilities from respectively a landslide and two climate datasets. The first climate dataset stores high resolution gridded rainfall data (1km resolution, hourly) and the second climate dataset contains lower resolution gridded rainfall, snow, temperature and evapotranspiration data (8km resolution, daily); the first dataset provides the rainfall records directly used for defining the rainfall events and then for the threshold construction; the second one enables to assess the region’s climate via parameters imported in CTRL-T. The thresholds are then validated using a method designed by Gariano and al. (2015).Several improvements are made to the method. First, potential evapotranspiration values approximated from temperatures and latitudes in one of the process’ steps are replaced by values from the second climate dataset, the result accounting best for the regional climate. Then, climate-specific duration values, used to split the raw rainfall records in events and sub-events, are computed for each mesh point. This second modification enables considering the heterogeneity of the Alpes-Maritimes climate.Rainfall thresholds are eventually obtained for different exceedance probabilities, first from a set of probable conditions (MRC), then from a set of highly probable conditions (MPRC). The validation process strengthens the analysis as well as enables to identify best performing thresholds. This work represents novel scientific progress towards landslide reliable warning systems by (a) making a case study of probabilistic rainfall thresholds for Alpes-Maritimes, (b) using for the first time high-resolution rainfall data and (c) adapting the method to climatically heterogeneous zones.

A perfluoroalkyl-tagged triphenylphosphine was applied in a fluorous biphasic system for the efficient parallel synthesis of 3H-quinazolin-4-ones via an Aza-Wittig reaction. The products were isolated by solid-phase extraction on fluorous reversed-phase silica gel. A new solid-phase bound phosphine derivative was used for comparison and yielded similar results.

We have characterized the humoral and cellular immune responses of BALB/c mice immunized with HIV-1 Nef regulatory protein encapsulated in poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) PLG particles. Three groups of mice were immunized with Nef PLG, Nef in the presence of complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) or Nef alone in PBS. When titers were compared 7 months after the last injection, anti-Nef titers in mice immunized with Nef PLG were still close to the maximum, whereas a significant decrease was observed in mice immunized with Nef alone (five times lower) or with Nef in CFA (three times lower). These results indicate that Nef PLG is at least a similar or better vector/adjuvant than Nef in CFA concerning the duration of the humoral immune response. The analysis of cytokine profiles (IL-5 and IL-10) and the isotypic patterns of anti-Nef antibodies (predominantly IgG1), in the three groups of mice, indicated a predominant Th2 immune response. Using synthetic peptides covering the entire sequence of Nef, we identified at least three linear epitopes within sequences 32-64, 118-167 and 185-205 in the sera of mice immunized with Nef PLG or Nef CFA. In contrast, anti-Nef antibodies against Nef alone failed to recognize synthetic peptides, indicating that the majority of anti-Nef antibodies were primarily directed against conformational epitopes. We then examined the ability of Nef PLG to prime for the antigen-specific proliferative responses in vitro. The data obtained indicate the presence of both B-cell and T-cell epitopes in the C-terminal fragment of the protein after immunization of mice with Nef encapsulated in PLG particles.