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In recent years, the importance of incorporating attribute uncertainty in models of spatial choice behaviour has been recognized in urban planning research. The majority of studies concerned with decision-making under uncertainty assume some a-priori probability distribution for discrete attribute levels or continuous attribute values. Consequently, it has been implicitly assumed that the decision maker perceives the uncertain attributes as reflected in the presumed discrete or continuous probability distributions. This assumption may, however, not be necessarily true. Capturing the shape of the probability distributions from the decision maker’s perspective likely increases the accuracy of models of decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of the current paper, therefore, is to develop an approach for measuring and modelling individuals’ subjective beliefs about uncertain attributes. The approach is illustrated using beliefs about future mortgage rates as an example. To understand the impact of trends in the data, we experimentally changed the trends in mortgage rates over 20 years with 5 years intervals and analysed the impact of such trends on subjective beliefs of anticipated future mortgages. More specifically, four patterns of the evolution of mortgage rates were created, i.e. monotonically increasing, monotonically decreasing, increasing for the first four intervals and then decreasing, and decreasing for the first four intervals and then increasing. Results suggest that the shape of the pattern (nature of the trend) significantly influences subjective probability assessments of future mortgage rates. Highlights Imputations of subjective probability distribution of uncertain environment is crucial for urban and transportation planning The information trend on an uncertain event has significant impact on sits subjective probability envisaged by respondents. Social demographic variables are significant moderators for subjective mean and standard deviation of uncertain events.

Objectives To empirically test whether offenders consider environmental features at multiple spatial scales when selecting a target and examine the simultaneous effect of neighborhood-level and residence-level attributes on residential burglars’ choice of residence to burglarize. Methods We combine data on 679 burglaries by 577 burglars committed between 2005 and 2014 with data on approximately 138,000 residences in 193 residential neighborhoods in Ghent, Belgium. Using a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the combined effect of neighborhood-level and residence-level attributes on burglars’ target choice in a conditional logit model. Results Burglars prefer burglarizing residences in neighborhoods with lower residential density. Burglars also favor burglarizing detached residences, residences in single-unit buildings, and renter-occupied residences. Furthermore, burglars are more likely to target residences in neighborhoods that they previously and recently targeted for burglary, and residences nearby their home. We find significant cross-level interactions between neighborhood and residence attributes in burglary target selection. Conclusions Both area-level and target-level attributes are found to affect burglars’ target choices. Our results offer support for theoretical accounts of burglary target selection that characterize it as being informed both by attributes of individual properties and attributes of the environment as well as combinations thereof. This spatial decision-making model implies that environmental information at multiple and increasingly finer scales of spatial resolution informs crime site selection.

This paper explores the sources of preference heterogeneity for landslide protection, with a special focus on spatial determinants. The data were collected using a stated preference survey of landslide hazards in an Italian mountain valley, using a best-worst ranking approach, in-person interviews, and site-specific choice sets. Preference heterogeneity is analyzed using individual and spatial variables with a focus on the importance of geographical characteristics, spatial error components, and landslide locational effects. Results from spatial choice models reveal the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity at different levels, given that taste variations were present at both individual and municipality levels.

Selecting and moving to spatial targets are critical components of goal-directed behavior, yet their neural bases are not well understood. The superior colliculus (SC) is thought to contain a topographic map of contralateral space in which the activity of specific neuronal populations corresponds to particular spatial locations. However, these spatial representations are modulated by several decision-related variables, suggesting that they reflect information beyond simply the location of an upcoming movement. Here, we examine the extent to which these representations arise from competitive spatial choice. We recorded SC activity in male mice performing a behavioral task requiring orienting movements to targets for a water reward in two contexts. In “competitive” trials, either the left or right target could be rewarded, depending on which stimulus was presented at the central port. In “noncompetitive” trials, the same target (e.g., left) was rewarded throughout an entire block. While both trial types required orienting movements to the same spatial targets, only in competitive trials do targets compete for selection. We found that in competitive trials, pre-movement SC activity predicted movement to contralateral targets, as expected. However, in noncompetitive trials, some neurons lost their spatial selectivity and in others activity predicted movement to ipsilateral targets. Consistent with these findings, unilateral optogenetic inactivation of pre-movement SC activity ipsiversively biased competitive, but not noncompetitive, trials. Incorporating these results into an attractor model of SC activity points to distinct pathways for orienting movements under competitive and noncompetitive conditions, with the SC specifically required for selecting among multiple potential targets.

Decision making is a cognitive process that mediates behaviors critical for survival. Choosing spatial targets is an experimentally-tractable form of decision making that depends on the midbrain superior colliculus (SC). While physiological and computational studies have uncovered the functional topographic organization of the SC, the role of specific SC cell types in spatial choice is unknown. Here, we leveraged behavior, optogenetics, neural recordings and modeling to directly examine the contribution of GABAergic SC neurons to the selection of opposing spatial targets. Although GABAergic SC neurons comprise a heterogeneous population with local and long-range projections, our results demonstrate that GABAergic SC neurons do not locally suppress premotor output, suggesting that functional long-range inhibition instead plays a dominant role in spatial choice. An attractor model requiring only intrinsic SC circuitry was sufficient to account for our experimental observations. Overall, our study elucidates the role of GABAergic SC neurons in spatial choice., Essig et al used a combination of behavior, optogenetics, neural recordings and modelling to directly examine the contribution of GABAergic superior colliculus neurons to the selection of opposing spatial targets. They demonstrated that these neurons do not locally suppress premotor output, suggesting that functional long-range inhibition instead plays a dominant role in spatial choice.

Objectives Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

This study identifies what factors have effects on college graduates&rsquo, decisions to stay for jobs in lagged regions using a bivariate probit model with sample selection. The results show that strong preferences for a home village and a university region contribute to the decision about job location concerning the regions. In addition, low living costs have much significant impact on spatial choice compared with economic factors, such as the levels of wage and job security. The long-term economic growth of lagged regions could be affected by a preference of high-school graduates to attend local universities.

We’ve shown that pigeons can integrate separately acquired spatial maps into a cognitive map. Integration requires an element shared between maps. In two experiments using a spatial-search task in pigeons, we test spatial combination rules when no shared element was present during training. In all three experiments, pigeons first learned individual landmark-target maps. In subsequent tests involving combinations of landmarks, we found evidence that landmarks collaborate in guiding spatial choice at test (Experiment 1). In Experiment 2, pigeons were trained on two landmarks with different proximities to the target. On tests on a compound of both landmarks, pigeons showed stronger spatial control by the more proximal landmark, a performance overshadowing effect. Extinction of the proximal landmark shifted spatial control to the non-extinguished distal landmark. This reveals that the performance overshadowing effect was associative in nature, and not due to perceptual or spatial biases. This emphasis on spatial control during performance reflects the emphasis on performance processes that were a major focus in Ralph Miller’s lab.

Rats searched for food in a situation that allowed them to determine which locations contained food after searching a small number of them, but not which of the baited locations contained more-preferred food rather than a less-preferred food. During some experimental trials, the latter information was available from the choices of model rats making choices together with the subject rats, because some of the model rats tended to choose the locations baited with more-preferred food. On the surface, the results suggest that social influence specified the locations of more-preferred food to the subject rats. However, more detailed analysis and data from a second experiment indicate that the social influence can be explained by a general tendency to approach another rat making choices, acquired if rats are exposed to a contingency between social approach and increased foraging success.

The spatial pattern of crime has been a central theme of criminological research. Recently, the spatial variation in the crime location choice of offenders by different population groups has been gaining more attention. This study addresses the issue of whether the spatial distribution of migrant robbers’ crime location choices is different from those of native robbers. Further, what factors contribute to such differences? Using a kernel density estimation and the discrete spatial choice modeling, we combine the offender data, POI data, and mobile phone data to explain the crime location choice of the street robbers who committed offenses and were arrested from 2012 to 2016 in ZG City, China. The results demonstrate that the crime location choices between migrant robbers and native robbers have obvious spatial differences. Migrant robbers tend to choose the labor-intensive industrial cluster, while native robbers prefer the old urban areas and urban villages. Wholesale markets, sports stadiums, transportation hubs, and subway stations only affect migrant robbers’ crime location choices, but not native robbers’. These results may be attributable to the different spatial awareness between migrant robbers and native robbers. The implications of the findings for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

Decision making is critical for survival but its neural basis is unclear. Here we examine how functional neural circuitry in the output layers of the midbrain superior colliculus (SC) mediates spatial choice, an SC-dependent tractable form of decision making. We focus on the role of inhibitory SC neurons, using optogenetics to record and manipulate their activity in behaving mice. Based on data from SC slice experiments and on a canonical role of inhibitory neurons in cortical microcircuits, we hypothesized that inhibitory SC neurons locally inhibit premotor output neurons that represent contralateral targets. However, our experimental results refuted this hypothesis. An attractor model revealed that our results were instead consistent with inhibitory neurons providing long-range inhibition between the two SCs, and terminal activation experiments supported this architecture. Our study provides mechanistic evidence for competitive inhibition between populations representing discrete choices, a common motif in theoretical models of decision making.

Understanding how offenders choose a crime location is a classic criminological topic. However, previous research on offenders' crime location choice did not consider the impacts of ambient population and surveillance cameras on street robbery. Based on the literature, this study integrates ambient population and surveillance cameras data, from the perspective of guardianship. The discrete spatial choice modeling is used to test the impact of their guardianship role on street robbers' crime location choice, accounting for accessibility and proximity, crime attractors and generators, and social disorganization. The results demonstrate that ambient population and surveillance cameras have a significant hindering impact on street robbers' crime location choice, and they play a guardianship role in street robbers' criminal activities. In particular, we find that the guardianship effect of ambient population is greater than that of surveillance cameras. Further, the inclusion of ambient population and surveillance cameras increases the fitness of the model, which underscores the guardianship role of these two factors on street robbers' choice of location on committing a robbery. These findings can have important implications for the role of the ambient population and the deployment of surveillance cameras for crime reduction.

According to crime pattern theory, offenders are likely to select crime locations within their awareness space. Previous studies have shown that offenders often commit crimes within their current and former residential areas and in areas they previously targeted. However, offenders’ awareness spaces obviously consist of more locations that potentially influence their crime location choices. This study examines the importance of the residential areas of offenders’ family members. Most offenders visit their families at least occasionally and consequently get familiar with the areas in which their families live. It is hypothesized that family members’ residential areas are at increased risk of being targeted. Unique data were used to reconstruct residential histories of the parents, siblings, and children of 7,910 offenders who committed 19,420 offenses. The results of discrete spatial choice models showed that residential areas of family members are indeed at increased risk of being targeted. Current familial residential areas had stronger and more consistent effects than had former familial residential areas. Effects were strongest for the residential areas of offenders’ children compared with those of their parents and siblings. The residential areas of male and female family members affected the crime location choices of male and female offenders equally.

Failure to properly specify an agent's choice set in discrete choice models will generate biased parameter estimates resulting in inaccurate behavioral predictions as well as biased estimates of policy relevant metrics. We propose a method of constructing choice sets by sampling from specific points in space to model agent behavior when choice alternatives are unknown to the researcher, potentially infinite, and differ according to spatial and temporal factors. Using Monte Carlo analysis we compare the performance of this point-based sampling method to the commonly used approach of spatially aggregating choice alternatives. We then apply these alternative approaches to modelling location choice in the Pacific groundfish trawl fishery which has a complex spatial choice structure. Both the Monte Carlo and application results provide considerable support for the efficacy of the point-based approaches.

Objectives: This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories, it seeks to address the as yet untested assumption that crime location choice preferences are the same for all offenders. Methods: Analyzing detected residential burglaries from Brisbane, Australia, we apply a random effects variant of the discrete spatial choice model to estimate preference variation between offenders across six location choice characteristics. Furthermore, in attempting to understand the causes of this variation we estimate how offenders’ spatial target preferences might be affected by where they live and by their age. Results: Findings of this analysis demonstrate that while in the aggregate the characteristics of location choice are consistent with the findings from previous studies, considerable preference variation is found between offenders. Conclusions: This research highlights that current understanding of choice outcomes is relatively poor and that existing applications of the discrete spatial choice approach may underestimate preference variation between offenders.

This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice.

This paper analyzes a closed linear polycentric city where households probabilistically select their workplace and residence locations. The study utilizes a continuous logit model to describe household location choices. In contrast to the classic urban model with deterministic location choices, the continuous logit model predicts noticeable direct effects of more than one workplace on land rents, asymmetry of the land rent schedule around secondary business districts, incomplete segregation of citizens who work in different business centers and, therefore, cross-commuting, and incomplete segregation of workers and farmers.

Physical space in an academic library is increasingly important to fully support students' diverse needs for learning spaces. However, inefficient space design and planning give rise to crowded and underutilized spaces in a library, thereby probably lowering students' learning outcomes and wasting costly space. Understanding students' use of space can facilitate effective design and planning, which in turn will result in more efficient use of space. As students' spatial choices (i.e., the act of decision-making of an individual or group among two or more space alternatives for a certain activity) account for much of the space use in a library, this study explored the factors that influence their choice of space in an academic library using a paper-based survey (n = 252) at the central academic library, Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands. The five most important space attributes were “Amount of space,” “Noise level,” “Crowdedness,” “Comfort of furnishing” and “Cleanliness.” The spatial choice patterns also differed according to different user and activity profiles.

Three experiments examined the conditions under which the spatial choices of rats searching for food are influenced by the choices made by other rats. Model rats learned a consistent set of baited locations in a 5 × 5 matrix of locations, some of which contained food. In Experiment 1, subject rats could determine the baited locations after choosing 1 location because all of the baited locations were on the same side of the matrix during each trial (the baited side varied over trials). Under these conditions, the social cues provided by the model rats had little or no effect on the choices made by the subject rats. The lack of social influence on choices occurred despite a simultaneous social influence on rats' location in the testing arena (Experiment 2). When the outcome of the subject rats' own choices provided no information about the positions of other baited locations, on the other hand, social cues strongly controlled spatial choices (Experiment 3). These results indicate that social information about the location of food influences spatial choices only when those cues provide valid information that is not redundant with the information provided by other cues. This suggests that social information is learned about, processed, and controls behavior via the same mechanisms as other kinds of stimuli.

The processing of spatial and mnemonic information is believed to depend on hippocampal theta oscillations (5–12 Hz). However, in rats both the power and the frequency of the theta rhythm are modulated by locomotor activity, which is a major confounding factor when estimating its cognitive correlates. Previous studies have suggested that hippocampal theta oscillations support decision-making processes. In this study, we investigated to what extent spatial decision making modulates hippocampal theta oscillations when controlling for variations in locomotion speed. We recorded local field potentials from the CA1 region of rats while animals had to choose one arm to enter for reward (goal) in a four-arm radial maze. We observed prominent theta oscillations during the decision-making period of the task, which occurred in the center of the maze before animals deliberately ran through an arm toward goal location. In speed-controlled analyses, theta power and frequency were higher during the decision period when compared to either an intertrial delay period (also at the maze center), or to the period of running toward goal location. In addition, theta activity was higher during decision periods preceding correct choices than during decision periods preceding incorrect choices. Altogether, our data support a cognitive function for the hippocampal theta rhythm in spatial decision making.

One of the main challenges in modelling spatial choices is the complexity resulting from the availability of multiple alternatives at different geographical scales. This study aims to test geographical framing and substitution effects in stated choice experiments by first increasing and subsequently reducing the geographical scale and associated set of choice alternatives in the experiment. Geographical framing effects are tested by comparing estimated choice models for differently sized choice sets. Testing these framing effects related to choice set size helps to inform decisions on choice set composition. The results indicate that changing the choice set size has little to no effect on preference parameters and estimated WTP values. However, the larger choice set is associated with higher error variance, suggesting higher choice task complexity. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial homogamy may be defined as follows: anyone may be attracted to anyone else, but near candidates are more attractive than distant candidates. In this article, we propose a model of partner choice, where homogamy is defined in terms of spatial, demographic, socioeconomic and cultural similarity. A spatial choice model using random utility theory is formulated, taking into account a relaxation of the independence from the irrelevant alternatives property, as spatial alternatives are not independent of one another. We model partner choice given the characteristics of the chosen partner and a choice set of alternatives, using unique micro data on all new cohabiters in the Netherlands, linked to other relevant data sets. The model takes the spatial locations of potential candidates within a choice set into account, including an indicator for the spatial similarity between alternatives. We find that spatial homogamy is a vital component of partner matching, aside from and adding to the spatial effects in demographic, socioeconomic and cultural homogamy. Given a choice set of partners, the highest likelihood of a match occurs with a person who is born and lives near by, who is close in age, is in the same life stage and has the same marital status, who has the same educational and income level and the same labour market status, who speaks the same dialect and lives in a culturally similar residential area. The distance effect is most pronounced for those individuals with lower levels of education and those living in rural areas.

Spatio-temporal analysis is one of the suitable method in crime analysis. It is ability to visualize the spatial patterns and control emotionally over a time-ordered sequence of spatial variation. It has been involved the spatial modeling and models of location- allocation, spatial interaction, spatial choice with search, spatial optimization and space-time. Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Crime (STAC) is a powerful tool to identify the crime patterns and detect the crime hot clusters in identifying the hotspot areas. The aim of the objective study is to analyze the spatial effects based on space and time difference among the divisions (space and time) and rate of change. The different types of crime occurrence data were collected from fourteen rural police jurisdiction (2003-2006) in Coimbatore district, TamilNadu. For this analysis, crime occurrence data were used through ArcGIS 10.2 version. The study was analyzed the random walk incidences, and moving path of the peak incidences which are effective models used for entire surrounding area. The study was concluded that spatial-temporal dimension of crime in rural police jurisdictions and explaining how these outcomes used to assist the advance development of crime prevention strategies.

Predation is a major pressure that shapes animal sociality, but predation risk is not homogenous within groups. Animals located on the group edge typically face an increased threat of predation, although different patterns have been reported. We created a simulation model to determine how changes in predator attack distance and prey density influence predation in relation to within-group spatial position. At large attack distances, peripheral animals were attacked far more than central animals. At relatively short attack distances, central individuals were attacked almost as often as peripheral animals. We used 6 different methods to classify within-group spatial position in our simulations and tested which methods were the best predictors of predation risk at different parameter values. The minimum convex polygon and angle of vulnerability methods were the best predictors of predation risk at large and medium attack distances, respectively. At relatively short attack distances, the nearest neighbor distance and neighbor density methods were the best predictors of predation risk. These patterns demonstrate that the threat of marginal predation is dependent on the behavior of predators and that for some predator--prey systems, marginal predation is predicted to be insignificant. We predict that social prey animals should change antipredatory behavior, such as vigilance, within-group spacing, and within-group spatial choice based on the relative distances at which their predators attack. These results demonstrate the importance of incorporating the behavior of predators in empirical studies and predator--prey models. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Middle classes attracted attention in literature in the recent periods due to their expanding nature based on new job descriptions depending on the dynamics of the economy. They had used to have no significance in classical class schemes apart from being a group stuck in between the bourgeoisie and proletariat, and performing those jobs that could be categorized in neither side. However, with changes in the economic order in recent years, the meaning of work changed along with the variety of jobs to be performed. It is commonly known that these new conditions are very much related to technological advance providing heightened mobility to capital, labour and information. Changes in the regime of capital accumulation fuelled by new opportunities changed the sphere of work to a great extent. Developments in the arena of work and employment are revealed with the changes in the occupational structure and growth of a white-collar workforce. Apart from a wide range of low paid, and low skill service sector jobs, a wide variety of management, finance, technology and service related high level jobs which required high level training began to be demanded. ‘New middle classes’ came out as a result of such developments. Defining these newcomers became a central issue of research in many fields, but their significance came not only of the jobs they fulfilled or their role in the production sphere. Their consumption patterns, thus lifestyles became a central issue of interest. This may be mainly because class in the classical understanding defines a group with common interests, but these new middle classes did not have any common goal to fight for. What they had in common was where they stood in the production sided class schemes, between the upper and lower classes, but still their jobs were highly varied. In the occupational aggregate approach, classes are defined by occupational groupings at the expense of other factors (Akpinar, 2005). However, today, in the new economic climate, work lost its capacity in shaping people’s lives (2005). Modern society was a work society according to Offe (1985). However, today in the so-called SPATIAL CHOICES OF MIDDLE CLASSES

The importance of travel-time constraints in spatial choice is widely recognized in the literature of geography and related disciplines, but little work has been done toward developing operational models of spatial choice wherein these constraints and their effects are made explicit. The purpose of the paper is to test the accuracy of predictions produced by a destination choice model that does not take explicit account of travel constraints under the assumption that observed choices are made from choice sets delineated by a constraint of maximum travel time. Observed choices are generated by simulation from a new random utility model consistent with the constrained nature of individual choice sets. Results show that the characteristics of constraints are a decisive factor in the accuracy of the unconstrained choice model. Choice probabilities of the constrained reality are predicted with a reasonably good accuracy in some instances, but predictions are less impressive, and even poor, in many others.