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A large collaborative program has studied the coupled air‐ice‐ocean‐wave processes occurring in the Arctic during the autumn ice advance. The program included a field campaign in the western Arctic during the autumn of 2015, with in situ data collection and both aerial and satellite remote sensing. Many of the analyses have focused on using and improving forecast models. Summarizing and synthesizing the results from a series of separate papers, the overall view is of an Arctic shifting to a more seasonal system. The dramatic increase in open water extent and duration in the autumn means that large surface waves and significant surface heat fluxes are now common. When refreezing finally does occur, it is a highly variable process in space and time. Wind and wave events drive episodic advances and retreats of the ice edge, with associated variations in sea ice formation types (e.g., pancakes, nilas). This variability becomes imprinted on the winter ice cover, which in turn affects the melt season the following year.

The Office of Naval Research initiated a Department Research Initiative (DRI) titled Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean. The central hypothesis of the Sea State DRI is that surface waves now have a much greater role in the contemporary Arctic Ocean. Indeed, the entire Arctic Ocean in summer may soon resemble a marginal ice zone (MIZ), where waves propagate through the ice pack and affect the evolution of sea ice over large scales. This large-scale pattern feeds back, as wave generation is controlled by the amount of open water fetch. At smaller scales, waves and ice interact to attenuate and scatter the waves while simultaneously fracturing ice into ever changing floe size and thickness distributions. Further complicating these processes are forcing by winds and surface fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, which are expected to increase with heightened storm activity in the region. The marginal open seas provide new opportunities and new problems. Navigation and other maritime activities become possible, but waves, storm surges and coastal erosion will likely increase. Air sea interactions enter a completely new regime, with momentum, energy, heat, gas, and moisture fluxes being moderated or produced by the waves, and impacting upper-ocean mixing., Sponsored in part by ONR grant numbers N00014-13-1-0290, MIPR-N0001413IP20046, N00014-13-1-0280, N00014-13-1-0288, MIPR-N0001413WX20830, MIPR-N0001413IP20050, N00014-13-1-0303, N00014-13-1-0446, MIPR-N0001413WX20825, N00014-13-1-0294, N00014-13-1-0279, N00014-13-1-0434, N0001413-1-0284 and N00014-13-1-0289.