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In this update, we discuss a position statement from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on the use of artificial intelligence for evidence generation and publications reviewing the use of real-world data as external control arms. Finally, we discuss a number of recent studies investigating the real-world effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and whether these studies are informative for reimbursement decision making.

In this latest update, we explore the recent announcement by Canada’s Drug Agency (CDA-AMC, formerly CADTH) on their pilot to include the societal perspective in the evaluation of certain new medicines; a recent Office of Health Economics (OHE) report on the evaluation of HTA agency methods over time; and publications examining the impact of Project Orbis on patient access to oncology treatments.

In this update, we discuss recent US FDA guidance offering more specific guidelines on appropriate study design and analysis to support causal inference for non-interventional studies and the launch of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the Heads of Medicines Agencies (HMA) public electronic catalogues. We also highlight an article recommending assessing data quality and suitability prior to protocol finalization and a Journal of the American Medical Association-endorsed framework for using causal language when publishing real-world evidence studies. Finally, we explore the potential of large language models to automate the development of health economic models.

In this latest update, we look at recent developments in market access including the pricing agreement of Libmeldy by the Beneluxa Initiative, the financial impact of managed entry agreements in Italy and the restructuring of Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco (AIFA). We also highlight the collaboration between FINOSE and the New Expensive Drug (NED) section of the Nordic Pharmaceutical Forum.

In this latest update, we explore some of the key updates in market access over recent months including the UK’s voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing, access and growth (VPAG), the first drugs funded by the Innovative Medicines Fund in the UK and the Direct Access Scheme in France, and, finally, the new Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) value assessment framework in the USA.

In this latest update we highlight: a publication from the US FDA regarding the definitions of real-world data (RWD) and real-world evidence (RWE); a publication from academic researchers on a demonstration project for target trial emulation; a publication from the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) on the 1 year anniversary of their RWE framework; and a publication from NICE and Flatiron Health on the utility of US RWD for initial UK health technology assessment decision making.

In this latest update, we explore the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted by the US Congress in August 2022, with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently releasing the list of the first ten drugs it will negotiate prices on. We also cover the consequences of price controls and rigid value assessment in Germany which have led to the withdrawal of a number of medicines. It will be important to see how the IRA balances cost-saving with holistic value assessment, incentives for innovation and patient access to treatment.

In this latest update we highlight a report from the European Medicines Agency on their use of realworld evidence (RWE) in decision making, RWE reporting guidance from the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health and highlight some new data demonstrating the value medicines for spinal muscular atrophy have brought patients.

In this new series reviewing recent developments inmarket access, we highlight publications investigating health technology assessment (HTA) guidance, review processes and outcomes across the world and discuss how forthcoming changes in the HTA and regulatory environment in the European Union may allow for more consistency in decision making.

In this latest update we discuss the transportability of comparative effectiveness evidence across countries. We highlight results of a survey indicating that European HTA agencies are reluctant to accept real-world data from other countries, review recent benefit assessments indicating a potential softening of a requirement for the use of local real-world data in Germany, and outline a recent review presenting approaches that can correct for a lack of transportability.

Objective: To derive a score for finishing in the top three positions of the television show, Love Island, UK. Design: A retrospective study was undertaken using data from all previous contestants. Results: A score predicting show success termed DO-BITS (different coupling approaches [islanders pursuing one or many people on the show], Original islander [being on the show from the start], [being] Brunette, [having] intimate relationships on screen, Tradesman [occupation before being on the show] and Short name [having a four-letter first name]) was developed. The accuracy of this score in this derivation cohort yielded a C-statistic of 0.85. Conclusion: This simple, novel score provides a practical tool to assess the likelihood of success on Love Island.

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory disease while there are controversies regarding the role of vitamin D supplements in controlling relapse and disability improvement during treatment. Objective: The goal of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the effect of vitamin D supplements on MS-related relapse and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Methods: We searched databases to include randomized clinical trials (RCTs) which were published up to October 2018. We included RCTs, being single-blinded or double-blinded or open-label trials in which one of the main outcomes was EDSS and/or relapse after vitamin D supplementation. All statistical analyses were performed using RevMan 5.3. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for relapse between treatment arms. The mean difference was calculated for EDSS comparisons. Results: Nine articles were included for analysis. Of these nine studies, five compared vitamin D supplement groups with placebo (group 1 studies), and four compared high- and low-dose vitamin D groups. A total of 561 patients were analyzed. Being treated with vitamin D instead of placebo showed no effect on relapse rate (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.28–1.54) as well as EDSS (mean difference = 0.06, 95%CI [-0.31, 0.42]). The results of studies comparing high- vs. low-dose vitamin D interventions showed no significant effect on relapse rate (OR = 1.08, 95%CI [0.29–4.08] as well as final EDSS (mean difference = 0.17, 95% CI = -0.73, 1.07). Conclusions: Our findings show that vitamin D supplements (high or low dose) have no significant effect on relapse rate and disability during treatment in MS patients.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which alleles at or near the class II loci HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 contribute significantly to genetic risk. HLA-DRB1*15 and HLA-DRB1*17-bearing haplotypes and interactions at the HLA-DRB1 locus increase risk of MS but it has taken large samples to identify resistance HLA-DRB1 alleles. In this investigation of 7,093 individuals from 1,432 MS families, we have assessed the validity, mode of inheritance, associated genotypes, and the interactions of HLA-DRB1 resistance alleles. HLA-DRB1*14-, HLA-DRB1*11-, HLA-DRB1*01-, and HLA-DRB1*10-bearing haplotypes are protective overall but they appear to operate by different mechanisms. The first type of resistance allele is characterised by HLA-DRB1*14 and HLA-DRB1*11. Each shows a multiplicative mode of inheritance indicating a broadly acting suppression of risk, but a different degree of protection. In contrast, a second type is exemplified by HLA-DRB1*10 and HLA-DRB1*01. These alleles are significantly protective when they interact specifically in trans with HLA-DRB1*15-bearing haplotypes. HLA-DRB1*01 and HLA-DRB1*10 do not interact with HLA-DRB1*17, implying that several mechanisms may be operative in major histocompatibility complex-associated MS susceptibility, perhaps analogous to the resistance alleles. There are major practical implications for risk and for the exploration of mechanisms in animal models. Restriction of antigen presentation by HLA-DRB1*15 seems an improbably simple mechanism of major histocompatibility complex-associated susceptibility.

Background: We and others have shown a significant proportion of interventional trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov have their primary outcomes altered after the listed study start and completion dates. The objectives of this study were to investigate whether changes made to primary outcomes are associated with the likelihood of reporting a statistically significant primary outcome on ClinicalTrials.gov. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of all interventional clinical trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as of 20 November 2014 was performed. The main outcome was any change made to the initially listed primary outcome and the time of the change in relation to the trial start and end date. Findings: 13,238 completed interventional trials were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov that also had study results posted on the website. 2555 (19.3%) had one or more statistically significant primary outcomes. Statistical analysis showed that registration year, funding source and primary outcome change after trial completion were associated with reporting a statistically significant primary outcome. Conclusions: Funding source and primary outcome change after trial completion are associated with a statistically significant primary outcome report on clinicaltrials.gov.

More than 50 genomic regions have now been shown to influence the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the mechanisms of action, and the cell types in which these associated variants act at the molecular level remain largely unknown. This is especially true for associated regions containing no known genes. Given the evidence for a role for B cells in MS, we hypothesized that MS associated genomic regions co-localized with regions which are functionally active in B cells. We used publicly available data on 1) MS associated regions and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 2) chromatin profiling in B cells as well as three additional cell types thought to be unrelated to MS (hepatocytes, fibroblasts and keratinocytes). Genomic intervals and SNPs were tested for overlap using the Genomic Hyperbrowser. We found that MS associated regions are significantly enriched in strong enhancer, active promoter and strong transcribed regions (p = 0.00005) and that this overlap is significantly higher in B cells than control cells. In addition, MS associated SNPs also land in active promoter (p = 0.00005) and enhancer regions more than expected by chance (strong enhancer p = 0.0006; weak enhancer p = 0.00005). These results confirm the important role of the immune system and specifically B cells in MS and suggest that MS risk variants exert a gene regulatory role. Previous studies assessing MS risk variants in T cells may be missing important effects in B cells. Similar analyses in other immunological cell types relevant to MS and functional studies are necessary to fully elucidate how genes contribute to MS pathogenesis.

Recent associations between age-related differentially methylated sites and bivalently marked chromatin domains have implicated a role for these genomic regions in aging and age-related diseases. However, the overlap between such epigenetic modifications has so far only been identified with respect to age-associated hyper-methylated sites in blood. In this study, we observed that age-associated differentially methylated sites characterized in the human brain were also highly enriched in bivalent domains. Analysis of hyper- vs. hypo-methylated sites partitioned by age (fetal, child, and adult) revealed that enrichment was significant for hyper-methylated sites identified in children and adults (child, fold difference = 2.28, P = 0.0016; adult, fold difference = 4.73, P = 4.00 × 10(-5)); this trend was markedly more pronounced in adults when only the top 100 most significantly hypo- and hyper-methylated sites were considered (adult, fold difference = 10.7, P = 2.00 × 10(-5)). Interestingly, we found that bivalently marked genes overlapped by age-associated hyper-methylation in the adult brain had strong involvement in biological functions related to developmental processes, including neuronal differentiation. Our findings provide evidence that the accumulation of methylation in bivalent gene regions with age is likely to be a common process that occurs across tissue types. Furthermore, particularly with respect to the aging brain, this accumulation might be targeted to loci with important roles in cell differentiation and development, and the closing off of these developmental pathways. Further study of these genes is warranted to assess their potential impact upon the development of age-related neurological disorders.

Genetic factors play an important role in determining the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). The strongest genetic association in MS is located within the major histocompatibility complex class II region (MHC), but more than 50 MS loci of modest effect located outside the MHC have now been identified. However, the relative candidate genes that underlie these associations and their functions are largely unknown. We conducted a protein-protein interaction (PPI) analysis of gene products coded in loci recently reported to be MS associated at the genome-wide significance level and in loci suggestive of MS association. Our aim was to identify which suggestive regions are more likely to be truly associated, which genes are mostly implicated in the PPI network and their expression profile. From three recent independent association studies, SNPs were considered and divided into significant and suggestive depending on the strength of the statistical association. Using the Disease Association Protein-Protein Link Evaluator tool we found that direct interactions among genetic products were significantly higher than expected by chance when considering both significant regions alone (p

BACKGROUND: Studies investigating a proposed association between multiple sclerosis (MS) and migraine have produced conflicting results and a great range in the prevalence rate of migraine in MS patients. By meta-analysing all available data we aimed to establish an overall estimate of any association in order to more accurately inform clinicians and care-givers about a potential association between MS and migraine. METHODS: Pubmed and EMBASE were searched to identify suitable studies. Studies were included if they were a case-control study or cohort study in which controls were not reported to have another neurological condition, were available in English, and specified migraine as a headache sub-type. The odds ratio (OR) of migraine in MS patients vs. controls was calculated using the inverse variance with random effects model in Review Manager 5.1. RESULTS: Eight studies were selected for inclusion, yielding a total of 1864 MS patients and 261563 control subjects. We found a significant association between migraine and MS (OR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.12-6.04), although there was significant heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis showed that migraine without aura was associated with MS OR = 2.29 (95% CI 1.14-4.58), with no significant heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: MS patients are more than twice as likely to report migraine as controls. Care providers should be alerted to ask MS patients about migraine in order to treat it and potentially improve quality of life. Future work should further investigate the temporal relationship of this association and relationship to the clinical characteristics of MS.

There is general consensus that season of birth influences the risk of developing psychiatric conditions later in life. We aimed to investigate whether the risk of schizophrenia (SC), bipolar affective disorder (BAD) and recurrent depressive disorder (RDD) is influenced by month of birth in England to a similar extent as other countries using the largest cohort of English patients collected to date (n = 57,971). When cases were compared to the general English population (n = 29,183,034) all diseases showed a seasonal distribution of births (SC p = 2.48E-05; BAD p = 0.019; RDD p = 0.015). This data has implications for future strategies of disease prevention.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological disorder with a highly characteristic disease distribution. Prevalence and incidence in general increase with increasing distance from the equator. Similarly the female to male sex ratio increases with increasing latitude. Multiple possible risk factors have been hypothesised for this epidemiological trend, including human leukocyte antigen allele frequencies, ultraviolet exposure and subsequent vitamin D levels, smoking and Epstein-Barr virus. In this study we undertook a study of medical records across Scotland on an NHS health board level of resolution to examine the epidemiology of MS in this region.We calculated the number and rate of patient-linked hospital admissions throughout Scotland between 1997 and 2009 from the Scottish Morbidity Records. We used weighted-regression to examine correlations between these measures of MS, and latitude and smoking prevalence. We found a highly significant relationship between MS patient-linked admissions and latitude (r weighted by standard error (r(sw)) = 0.75, p = 0.002). There was no significant relationship between smoking prevalence and MS patient-linked admissions.There is a definite latitudinal effect on MS risk across Scotland, arising primarily from an excess of female MS patients at more Northerly latitudes. Whether this is a true gradient or whether a threshold effect may apply at particular latitude will be revealed only by further research. A number of genetic and environmental factors may underlie this effect.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a leading cause of disability in young adults. Susceptibility to MS is determined by environmental exposure on the background of genetic risk factors. A previous meta-analysis suggested that smoking was an important risk factor for MS but many other studies have been published since then.We performed a Medline search to identify articles published that investigated MS risk following cigarette smoking. A total of 14 articles were included in this study. This represented data on 3,052 cases and 457,619 controls. We analysed these studies in both a conservative (limiting our analysis to only those where smoking behaviour was described prior to disease onset) and non-conservative manner. Our results show that smoking is associated with MS susceptibility (conservative: risk ratio (RR) 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.63, p < 10⁻¹⁵; non-conservative: RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.39-1.66, p < 10⁻¹⁹). We also analysed 4 studies reporting risk of secondary progression in MS and found that this fell just short of statistical significance with considerable heterogeneity (RR 1.88, 95% CI 0.98-3.61, p = 0.06).Our results demonstrate that cigarette smoking is important in determining MS susceptibility but the effect on the progression of disease is less certain. Further work is needed to understand the mechanism behind this association and how smoking integrates with other established risk factors.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to develop in genetically susceptible individuals as a result of environmental exposures. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is an almost universal finding among individuals with MS. Symptomatic EBV infection as manifested by infectious mononucleosis (IM) has been shown in a previous meta-analysis to be associated with the risk of MS, however a number of much larger studies have since been published.We performed a Medline search to identify articles published since the original meta-analysis investigating MS risk following IM. A total of 18 articles were included in this study, including 19390 MS patients and 16007 controls. We calculated the relative risk of MS following IM using a generic inverse variance with random effects model. This showed that the risk of MS was strongly associated with IM (relative risk (RR) 2.17; 95% confidence interval 1.97-2.39; p

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex neurological disorder. Its aetiology involves both environmental and genetic factors. Recent genome-wide association studies have identified a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with susceptibility to (MS). We investigated whether these genetic variations were associated with alteration in gene expression.We used a database of mRNA expression and genetic variation derived from immortalised peripheral lymphocytes to investigate polymorphisms associated with MS for correlation with gene expression. Several SNPs were found to be associated with changes in expression: in particular two with HLA-DQA1, HLA-DQA2, HLA-DQB1, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DRB4 and HLA-DRB5, one with ZFP57, one with CD58, two with IL7 and FAM164A, and one with FAM119B, TSFM and KUB3. We found minimal cross-over with a recent whole genome expression study in MS patients.We have shown that many susceptibility loci in MS are associated with changes in gene expression using an unbiased expression database. Several of these findings suggest novel gene candidates underlying the effects of MS-associated genetic variation.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which allelic variation in the MHC class II region exerts the single strongest effect on genetic risk. Epidemiological data in MS provide strong evidence that environmental factors act at a population level to influence the unusual geographical distribution of this disease. Growing evidence implicates sunlight or vitamin D as a key environmental factor in aetiology. We hypothesised that this environmental candidate might interact with inherited factors and sought responsive regulatory elements in the MHC class II region. Sequence analysis localised a single MHC vitamin D response element (VDRE) to the promoter region of HLA-DRB1. Sequencing of this promoter in greater than 1,000 chromosomes from HLA-DRB1 homozygotes showed absolute conservation of this putative VDRE on HLA-DRB1*15 haplotypes. In contrast, there was striking variation among non-MS-associated haplotypes. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays showed specific recruitment of vitamin D receptor to the VDRE in the HLA-DRB1*15 promoter, confirmed by chromatin immunoprecipitation experiments using lymphoblastoid cells homozygous for HLA-DRB1*15. Transient transfection using a luciferase reporter assay showed a functional role for this VDRE. B cells transiently transfected with the HLA-DRB1*15 gene promoter showed increased expression on stimulation with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (P = 0.002) that was lost both on deletion of the VDRE or with the homologous "VDRE" sequence found in non-MS-associated HLA-DRB1 haplotypes. Flow cytometric analysis showed a specific increase in the cell surface expression of HLA-DRB1 upon addition of vitamin D only in HLA-DRB1*15 bearing lymphoblastoid cells. This study further implicates vitamin D as a strong environmental candidate in MS by demonstrating direct functional interaction with the major locus determining genetic susceptibility. These findings support a connection between the main epidemiological and genetic features of this disease with major practical implications for studies of disease mechanism and prevention.

Recent studies have used mainstream consumer devices (Fitbit) to assess sleep objectively and test the well documented association between sleep and body mass index (BMI). In order to further investigate the applicability of Fitbit data for biomedical research across the globe, we analysed openly available Fitbit data from a largely Chinese population. We found that after adjusting for age, gender, race, and average number of steps taken per day, average hours of sleep per day was negatively associated with BMI (p=0.02), further demonstrating the significant potential for wearables in international scientific research.

Recent studies have used mainstream consumer devices (Fitbit) to assess sleep objectively and test the well documented association between sleep and body mass index (BMI). In order to further investigate the applicability of Fitbit data for biomedical research across the globe, we analysed openly available Fitbit data from a largely Chinese population. We found that after adjusting for age, gender, race, and average number of steps taken per day, average hours of sleep per day was negatively associated with BMI (p=0.02), further demonstrating the significant potential for wearables in international scientific research.

Background: The objective of this study was to investigate the study design characteristics of Post-Authorisation Studies (PAS) requested by the European Medicines Agency which were recorded on the European Union (EU) PAS Register held by the European Network of Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance (ENCePP). Methods: We undertook a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of all studies registered on the EU PAS Register as of 18 th October 2016. Results: We identified a total of 314 studies on the EU PAS Register, including 81 (26%) finalised, 160 (51%) ongoing and 73 (23%) planned. Of those studies identified, 205 (65%) included risk assessment in their scope, 133 (42%) included drug utilisation and 94 (30%) included effectiveness evaluation. Just over half of the studies (175; 56%) used primary data capture, 135 (43%) used secondary data and 4 (1%) used a hybrid design combining both approaches. Risk assessment and effectiveness studies were more likely to use primary data capture (60% and 85% respectively as compared to 39% and 14% respectively for secondary). The converse was true for drug utilisation studies where 59% were secondary vs. 39% for primary. For type 2 diabetes mellitus, database studies were more commonly used (80% vs 3% chart review, 3% hybrid and 13% primary data capture study designs) whereas for studies in oncology, primary data capture were more likely to be used (85% vs 4% chart review, and 11% database study designs). Conclusions: Results of this analysis show that PAS design varies according to study objectives and therapeutic area.

In order to understand the current state of data sharing in observational research studies, we reviewed data sharing statements of observational studies published in a general medical journal, the British Medical Journal. We found that the majority (63%) of observational studies published between 2015 and 2017 included a statement that implied that data used in the study could not be shared. If the findings of our exploratory study are confirmed, room for improvement in the sharing of real-world or observational research data exists.

In order to understand the current state of data sharing in observational research studies, we reviewed data sharing statements of observational studies published in a general medical journal, the British Medical Journal. We found that the majority (63%) of observational studies published between 2015 and 2017 included a statement that implied that data used in the study could not be shared. If the findings of our exploratory study are confirmed, room for improvement in the sharing of real-world or observational research data exists.

Machine learning (ML) has the potential to significantly aid medical practice. However, a recent article highlighted some negative consequences that may arise from using ML decision support in medicine. We argue here that whilst the concerns raised by the authors may be appropriate, they are not specific to ML, and thus the article may lead to an adverse perception about this technique in particular. Whilst ML is not without its limitations like any methodology, a balanced view is needed in order to not hamper its use in potentially enabling better patient care.

Background: The objective of this study was to investigate the study design characteristics of Post-Authorisation Studies (PAS) requested by the European Medicines Agency which were recorded on the European Union (EU) PAS Register held by the European Network of Centres for Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance (ENCePP). Methods: We undertook a cross-sectional descriptive analysis of all studies registered on the EU PAS Register as of 18 th October 2016. Results: We identified a total of 314 studies on the EU PAS Register, including 81 (26%) finalised, 160 (51%) ongoing and 73 (23%) planned. Of those studies identified, 205 (65%) included risk assessment in their scope, 133 (42%) included drug utilisation and 94 (30%) included effectiveness evaluation. Just over half of the studies (175; 56%) used primary data capture, 135 (43%) used secondary data and 4 (1%) used a hybrid design combining both approaches. Risk assessment and effectiveness studies were more likely to use primary data capture (60% and 85% respectively as compared to 39% and 14% respectively for secondary). The converse was true for drug utilisation studies where 59% were secondary vs. 39% for primary. For type 2 diabetes mellitus, database studies were more commonly used (80% vs 3% chart review, 3% hybrid and 13% primary data capture study designs) whereas for studies in oncology, primary data capture were more likely to be used (85% vs 4% chart review, and 11% database study designs). Conclusions: Results of this analysis show that study objectives and therapeutic area influence PAS design in terms of type of data capture used.

We sought to investigate the rate of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related hospitalizations in Portugal and assess whether there have been temporal changes as described in other countries. Using data from the Portuguese National Discharge Registry, we observed that between 2008 and 2013 the rate of MS-related hospitalizations decreased by 44%, from 15.9/100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI: 14.9-16.9) in 2008 to 8.9/100 person-years (95% CI: 8.2-9.6) in 2013. The change in hospitalization rates is in accordance with what has been observed in other countries, and coincides with the release of new therapies for MS in Portugal.