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We use 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data for four European countries (the UK, Germany, France, and Italy) and a dynamic trivariate panel data model to analyze the complex relationship between poverty, work intensity, and disability. We find evidence of genuine state dependence in the three processes and feedback effects from past poverty to work intensity in all countries and from past poverty to disability in the UK, Germany, and Italy. Disability is detrimental to poverty, despite the mitigating role played by disability cash benefits. The magnitude of this effect seems to be associated with the average expenditure on social protection benefits and its distribution across functions. We stress the importance of accounting for the extra costs of disability and the key role work intensity plays in the disability–poverty connection. Finally, adopting a joint estimation strategy appears crucial to consistently estimating the relationship between the three processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between risk-prone behavior and growth is central to tradeoff models that explain the existence and maintenance of among-individual variation in behavior (i.e. animal personality). These models posit positive relationships between among-individual variation in risk-prone behaviors and growth, yet how the strength and direction of such relationships depend on ecological conditions is unclear. We tested how different levels of predation risk from crayfish (Faxonius limosus) mediate the association between among-individual variation in snail (Helisoma trivolvis) boldness (emergence time) and growth in shell size. We found that crayfish predation risk reduced snail growth but that the effect of snail boldness on individual growth was context-dependent—snail boldness was unrelated to growth in the absence of risk and under high risk, but shy snails grew faster than bold snails under low predation risk. Other traits (snail size, body condition, and intrinsic growth rate measured under ad libitum food conditions) failed to explain snail growth variation under any risk level. Though opposite to the prediction of tradeoff models, enhanced growth of shy snails could function as a predator defense mechanism that protects their prospects for future reproduction consistent with the underlying premise of tradeoff models. Thus, our results highlight the importance of accounting for ecological conditions in understanding behavior–life history associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we focus on the existence of strict solutions to a class of differential equations with state-dependent nonlocal conditions. Using fixed point theorems and general Gronwall inequality, we give some new conclusions. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate our conclusions valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variance risk premium is a critical predictor of expected returns. However, numerous studies indicate that expected returns depend strongly on the state of the economy. Herein, we examine the effect of the variance risk premium in different market states by using cross – sectional regression and predictability of returns. Our empirical results show that the variance risk premium is a significantly priced factor in bull markets. Additionally, predicted return horizons are shorter in bear markets than in bull markets. Compared with that in bull markets, the predictive ability of the variance risk premium diminishes more rapidly in bear markets when the horizon period is lengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the dynamics of social exclusion as measured by material and social deprivation in the particularly exposed category of single-parent households. We aim to assess whether there is true state dependence in deprivation and the role of other household factors, as well as that of the macro-economic and social welfare scenario. We use 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data to explore a large set of European countries. We estimate three-level dynamic probit models that enable us to account for micro- and country-level unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that material and social deprivation is likely to be a trap for single-parent households and that this effect is stronger for these households than for those composed of two adults and children. Among single-parent households, those headed by a female are worse off than those headed by a male. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is capable of noninvasively inducing lasting neuroplastic changes when applied repetitively across multiple treatment sessions. In recent years, repetitive TMS has developed into an established evidence-based treatment for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as depression. Despite significant advancements in our understanding of the mechanisms of action of TMS, there is still much to learn about how these mechanisms relate to the clinical effects observed in patients. If there is one thing about TMS that we know for sure, it is that TMS effects are state dependent. In this review, we describe how the effects of TMS on brain networks depend on various factors, including cognitive brain state, oscillatory brain state, and recent brain state history. These states play a crucial role in determining the effects of TMS at the moment of stimulation and are therefore directly linked to what is referred to as target engagement in TMS therapy. There is no control over target engagement without considering the different brain state dependencies of our TMS intervention. Clinical TMS protocols are largely ignoring this fundamental principle, which may explain the large variability and often still limited efficacy of TMS treatments. We propose that after almost 30 years of research on state dependency of TMS, it is time to change standard clinical practice by taking advantage of this fundamental principle. Rather than ignoring TMS state dependency, we can use it to our clinical advantage to improve the effectiveness of TMS treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population heterogeneity argument links criminality to time-stable individual traits and suggests that criminal justice system involvements exert no independent influence on criminal behaviour. This study directly tests this postulation by estimating the relationship between police involvement and subsequent delinquency in an individual fixed effects design. The analysis relies on five waves of longitudinal data on self-reported delinquency and administrative data on police contacts. Results show that time-stable individual traits matter, but that the frequency of police contacts is positively associated with offending also after such characteristics have been accounted for. The results are thus in line with the state dependence argument and provide tentative support for labelling theory's postulation that criminal justice involvement increases rather than decreases criminal behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of differential equations with deviating arguments is one of the important and significant branches of nonlinear analysis with numerous applications in most fields. Usually, equations of deviating arguments with deviation depend only on the time, however, when the deviation of the arguments depends upon both the state variable x and also the time t, is incredibly important theoretically and practically. Differential equations with state-dependent delays attract the interest of specialists since they widely arise from application models, such as the two-body problem of classical Electrodynamics, which also have many applications, especially in the class of problems that have past memories. In this paper, we study the existence of solutions of a self-reference (state dependence) quadratic integral equation of fractional orders of the form x(t) = x0 +I0,tαf1(t,x(x(ϕ(t)))).I0,tβ f2(t,x(x(ϕ)))) t∈[0,T], α, β ∈ (0, 1). The uniqueness of the solution will be studied. The continuous dependence of the unique solution on the initial data and the functions f1 and f2 will be proved. Some examples are included. The study establishes conditions for the solution's existence and uniqueness, according to Schauder's fixed point Theorem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mounting evidence has shown that personality and behavioral syndromes have a substantial influence on interspecific interactions and individual fitness. However, the stability of covariation among multiple behavioral traits involved in antipredator responses has seldom been tested. Here, we investigate whether sex, gravidity, and parasite infestations influence the covariation between risk aversion (hiding time within a refuge) and escape response (immobility, escape distance) using a viviparous lizard, Zootoca vivipara, as a model system. Our results demonstrated a correlation between risk‐averse and escape behavior at the among‐individual level, but only in gravid females. We found no significant correlations in either males or neonates. A striking result was the loss of association in postparturition females. This suggests that the "risk‐averse – escape" syndrome is ephemeral and only emerges in response to constraints on locomotion driven by reproductive burden. Moreover, parasites have the potential to dissociate the correlations between risk aversion and escape response in gravid females, yet the causal chain requires further examination. Overall, our findings provide evidence of differences in the association between behaviors within the lifetime of an individual and indicate that individual states, sex, and life stages can together influence the stability of behavioral syndromes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents new empirical evidence on the role of time trends in low pay persistence. We utilize population-wide tax records to track monthly labour market trajectories of initially low-paid workers. By performing age- and qualification-specific regressions, we find that low pay persistence reduces with time. However, the magnitude is highly heterogeneous across workforce characteristics. For a qualified worker in their early 20s, the risk of staying on low-pay declines by, on average, 5–10% points after one year. For a worker in their 50s, persistence remains almost unchanged regardless of their qualification level. We conclude that policy initiatives need to be more nuanced than a simple one-size-fits-all approach by accounting for time trends in low-pay persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How behaviors vary among individuals and covary with other behaviors has been a major topic of interest over the last two decades, particularly in research on animal personality, behavioral syndromes, and trade-offs with life-history traits. Unfortunately, proposed theoretical and conceptual frameworks explaining the seemingly ubiquitous observation of behavioral (co)variation have rarely successfully generalized. For example, the "pace-of-life syndrome hypothesis" proposes that behaviors, life-history, and physiological traits should be correlated in a predictable manner. However, these predictions are not consistently upheld. Two observations perhaps explain this failure: First, phenotypic correlations between behaviors are more strongly influenced by correlated and reversible plastic changes in behavior than by among-individual correlations which stem from the joint effects of genetics and developmental plasticity. Second, while trait correlations are frequently assumed to arise via trade-offs, the observed pattern of correlations is not consistent with simple pair-wise trade-offs. A possible resolution to the apparent inconsistency between observed correlations and a role for trade-offs is provided by state-behavior feedbacks. This is critical because the inconsistency between data and theory represents a major failure in our understanding of behavioral evolution. These two primary observations emphasize the importance of an increased research focus on correlated reversible plasticity in behavior—frequently estimated and then disregarded as within-individual covariances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyze the initial conditions bias in the estimation of brand choice models with structural state dependence. Using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and empirical case studies of shopping panels, they show that popular, simple solutions that misspecify the initial conditions are likely to lead to bias even in relatively long panel data sets. The magnitude of the bias in the state dependence parameter can be as large as a factor of 2–2.5. The authors propose a solution to the initial conditions problem that samples the initial states as auxiliary variables in a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach assumes that the joint distribution of prices and consumer choices is in equilibrium, which is plausible for the mature consumer packaged goods products commonly used in empirical applications. In Monte Carlo simulations, the approach recovers the true parameter values even in relatively short panels. Finally, the authors propose a diagnostic tool that uses common, biased approaches to bound the values of the state dependence and construct a computationally light test for state dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates whether there is state dependence in the gender composition of managers in German establishments; that is, whether the number of hired female managers depends on the past hiring decisions of an establishment. Using administrative data, the authors apply dynamic linear models, thereby accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of lagged dependent variables. Results show that hiring female managers leads to the hiring of more female managers in the subsequent period. Hiring rates for male managers follow a similar pattern in that they are more likely to hire more male managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Mounting evidence has shown that personality and behavioral syndromes have a substantial influence on interspecific interactions and individual fitness. However, the stability of covariation among multiple behavioral traits involved in antipredator responses has seldom been tested. Here, we investigate whether sex, gravidity, and parasite infestations influence the covariation between risk aversion (hiding time within a refuge) and escape response (immobility, escape distance) using a viviparous lizard, Zootoca vivipara, as a model system. Our results demonstrated a correlation between risk‐averse and escape behavior at the among‐individual level, but only in gravid females. We found no significant correlations in either males or neonates. A striking result was the loss of association in postparturition females. This suggests that the “risk‐averse – escape” syndrome is ephemeral and only emerges in response to constraints on locomotion driven by reproductive burden. Moreover, parasites have the potential to dissociate the correlations between risk aversion and escape response in gravid females, yet the causal chain requires further examination. Overall, our findings provide evidence of differences in the association between behaviors within the lifetime of an individual and indicate that individual states, sex, and life stages can together influence the stability of behavioral syndromes.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to add to the current poverty dynamics literature by investigating the underlying causes of poverty persistence in Turkey, with an emphasis on both entry and exit rates. Methods: The study analyzes data from the Turkish Statistical Institute's "Survey on Income and Living Conditions" from 2018 to 2021 using dynamic probit models. This large dataset, which gives a detailed picture of socioeconomic situations, helps in properly understanding the complex aspects influencing poverty rates. Findings: The analysis reveals significant poverty persistence in Turkey, influenced by factors such as gender, marital status, employment, and health conditions. According to the research, these variables frequently interact, forming a complex structure that maintains poverty throughout the country. Implications: The findings necessitate targeted interventions to address persistent poverty, considering the diverse influencing factors. This could lead to a reduction in poverty rates and improved socioeconomic conditions for individuals. Originality/Value: This study offers a unique perspective on poverty dynamics in Turkey, focusing on both entry and exit rates. It provides valuable insights for those formulating policies or strategies aimed at poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation.

The paper analyzes stockouts resulting from hurricanes to study whether consumers are persistent in their brand choices. We analyze structural state dependence in brand choice using variation from brand switching during stockouts caused by hurricanes. We derive a simple test for structural state dependence based on the time series of choice persistence for households affected by the stockouts. Using data from the bottled water category, we show that demand increases substantially before hurricanes, causing households to purchase different brands. We find that purchase behavior reverts back to its pre-hurricane trajectory immediately after a hurricane, and we are not able to reject the null hypothesis of no structural state dependence. By contrast, the common approach of estimating structural state dependence based on temporal price variation via a discrete choice model yields a positive effect using data for the same category. We argue that our approach is better suited to identify the causal impact of past choices because it requires fewer assumptions and is based on more plausibly exogenous variation in brand switching resulting from stockouts. History: Avi Goldfarb served as the senior editor and Günter Hitsch served as associate editor for this article. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2022.1415. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new class of methods for identification and inference in dynamic models with serially correlated unobservables, which typically imply that state variables are econometrically endogenous. In the context of Industrial Organization, these state variables often reflect econometrically endogenous market structure. We propose the use of Generalized Instrument Variables methods to identify those dynamic policy functions that are consistent with instrumental variable (IV) restrictions. Extending popular "two-step" methods, these policy functions then identify a set of structural parameters that are consistent with the dynamic model, the IV restrictions and the data. We provide computed illustrations to both single-agent and oligopoly examples. We also present a simple empirical analysis that, among other things, supports the counterfactual study of an environmental policy entailing an increase in sunk costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this study is to add to the current poverty dynamics literature by investigating the underlying causes of poverty persistence in Turkey, with an emphasis on both entry and exit rates. Methods -- The study analyzes data from the Turkish Statistical Institute's "Survey on Income and Living Conditions" from 2018 to 2021 using dynamic probit models. This large dataset, which gives a detailed picture of socioeconomic situations, helps in properly understanding the complex aspects influencing poverty rates. Findings -- The analysis reveals significant poverty persistence in Turkey, influenced by factorssuch as gender, marital status, employment, and health conditions. According to the research, these variables frequently interact, forming a complex structure that maintains poverty throughout the country. Implications -- The findings necessitate targeted interventions to address persistent poverty, considering the diverse influencing factors. This could lead to a reduction in poverty rates and improved socioeconomic conditions for individuals. Originality/Value -- This study offers a unique perspective on poverty dynamics in Turkey, focusing on both entry and exit rates. It provides valuable insights for those formulating policies or strategies aimed at poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geotechnical engineering often involves different types of geomaterials, such as sandy soil and clayey soil. Existing studies have confirmed that these soils have some common features, i.e. their mechanical behaviors depend not only on the inherent characteristics but also on their initial states. To describe the main mechanical behaviors of different soils within a simple and reasonable constitutive framework is of great significance for the numerical analysis on geotechnical engineering. This paper first introduces a model based on the concepts of superloading and subloading, which considers the “state dependence” (effects of overconsolidation and structure) of soil and only adds two material parameters compared with the Cam-Clay model. Secondly, conventional triaxial tests are systematically carried out on four types of soils (i.e. sand, silty clay, clay, and intermediate soil) with different initial void ratios, and the mechanical similarities and differences of these soils are discussed uniformly. After that, six material parameters of these soils are uniformly determined based on the concepts of superloading and subloading, and then used in constitutive calculations to verify the feasibility. The calculated results show a good agreement with test data, indicating that the model based on the concepts of superloading and subloading has great potential for describing the general mechanical behaviors of different soils within a unified framework. This work is expected to be applied to constitutive selection and parameter determination in the geotechnical numerical analysis of complex soil profiles.

Summary: We measure aggregate inattention as the common component in agents' inattentiveness to many economic variables. Applying this measure to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters enables us to establish the following empirical evidence. Professional forecasters update their information sets every 5 months on average but do so more frequently in response to high inflation and unemployment, as well as rising market volatility and policy uncertainty. Monetary policy shocks have larger real effects when the degree of inattention is higher. To explain our empirical findings, we propose a general equilibrium model with state‐dependent information rigidity in both the production and household sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a new instrumental variables estimator for spatial, dynamic panels with interactive effects under large N and T asymptotics. For this class of models, most approaches available in the literature are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. The approach put forward here is appealing from both a theoretical and a practical point of view for a number of reasons. First, it is linear in the parameters of interest and computationally inexpensive. Second, the IV estimator is free from asymptotic bias. Third, the approach can accommodate endogenous regressors as long as external instruments are available. The IV estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as |$N,T\rightarrow \infty$|⁠ , such that |$N/T \rightarrow c$|⁠ , where |$0\lt c\lt \infty$|⁠. We study the determinants of risk attitude of banking institutions. The results show that the capital regulation introduced by the Dodd–Frank Act has succeeded in influencing banks' behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The magnitude of global surface temperature change in response to unit radiative forcing depends on the type and magnitude of forcing agent—a concept known as a "forcing efficacy." However, the mechanisms behind the forcing efficacy are still unclear. In this study, we perform a set of simulations using CESM1 to calculate the efficacy of 10 different forcing agents defined in terms of fixed‐SST effective radiative forcing, and then use a Green's function approach to show that each forcing efficacy can be largely understood in terms of the radiative feedbacks associated with the different surface temperature patterns induced by the forcing agents (a pattern effect). We also quantify how the state dependence of feedbacks on global mean surface temperature anomalies impacts forcing efficacies. The results show that the forcing efficacy can be well reconstructed with a combination of pattern effect and state dependence. Plain Language Summary: The magnitude of global warming in response to unit forcing induced by carbon dioxide is different to that induced by methane or solar radiation, and the efficacy of a specific climate forcing agent depends on its type and magnitude. Our results show that the forcing efficacy can be explained with a combination of pattern effect and state dependence. When there is relatively stronger forcing over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, where feedbacks are more negative, the corresponding sea surface warming pattern favors a lower efficacy. When the forcing induces a larger global surface warming, less‐stabilizing feedbacks are induced and the corresponding efficacy tends to be higher. Key Points: Forcing efficacy can be explained with a combination of pattern effect and state dependence of feedbacksEfficacy is lower when there is relatively stronger forcing over the tropical western Pacific OceanEfficacy is higher when the forcing is more positive, inducing less‐stabilizing feedbacks at higher warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Düşük ücretli istihdam hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerin işgücü piyasasında yaygın bir şekilde görülen bir istihdam türüdür. Düşük ücretli istihdamın ortaya çıkmasının nedenlerinden biri düşük ücret kalıcılığıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye işgücü piyasasında düşük ücret kalıcılığının olup olmadığını ve düşük ücret kalıcılığının nedenlerini araştırmaktır. Düşük ücret kalıcılığı, Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması’ndan (GYKA) elde edilen 2013-2016 dönemine ait panel veriler kullanılarak başlangıç koşulları problemini dikkate alan örnek seçiminin olduğu içsel iki değişkenli probit modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar başlangıç koşullarının göz önünde bulundurulması gerektiğini, Türkiye işgücü piyasasında düşük ücret kalıcılığının olduğunu ve bu kalıcılığın önemli bir kısmının gerçek duruma bağımlılıktan kaynaklandığını göstermiştir. Buna ilaveten düşük ücret kalıcılığının geriye kalan kısmının cinsiyet, eğitim seviyesi, vasıf ve firma büyüklüğü gibi gözlenen heterojenlik tarafından açıklanabildiği ortaya çıkmıştır.

This study presents the development of an isothermal model for characterising the stress-strain behaviour of clay, in the framework of thermomechanical restrictions. Clay is assumed to be a decoupled material, where the accumulation of the Helmholtz free energy can be decoupled into two components, elastic and plastic, that result in the explicit definitions of the shift and dissipative stress tensors, respectively. An anisotropic yielding function fulfilling the first and second laws of thermodynamics is then derived from the rate of plastic dissipation, where the loading tensor and fractional plastic flow tensor are also obtained. A compression-and-shearing hardening mechanism is introduced by further evaluating the thermodynamic restrictions of the rate of Helmholtz free energy at critical state. The developed model contains seven constitutive parameters, where the identification methods are discussed. Finally, an application of the developed model to simulate the drained and undrained stress-strain responses of different clays are provided. • Anisotropic yielding function fulfilling the first and second laws of thermodynamics was derived. • Combined compression and shear hardening mechanisms were introduced considering thermomechanical restriction. • Evolution of fabric tensor was defined. • Model simulations of the stress-strain behaviour of clays were conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the dynamic nature of market conditions, this paper introduces a state-dependent futures hedging optimization model and methodology. This approach dynamically adjusts the traditional model-driven hedging strategy, effectively balancing the pursuit of returns with the imperative of risk mitigation. Empirical evidence shows that integrating Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with machine learning techniques, as demonstrated in this study, improves the accuracy of market state forecasts. Compared to the traditional model-driven hedging strategy, the innovative state-dependent hedging strategy introduced here significantly enhances the return-to-risk ratio, and revenue, without increasing hedging risks. Moreover, the hedging portfolio developed under this strategy achieves an average hedging efficiency of 0.76, highlighting the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Additional robustness tests indicate that this market state-dependent hedging optimization strategy is promising under various conditions, including different position adjustment ratios, volatility benchmarks, evaluation periods, types of crude oil, and transaction costs. The research conducted in this paper not only contributes to and expands traditional hedging theories but also provides a practical risk management solution for market participants. • A state-dependent hedging strategy is proposed. • A state prediction model combining HMM and machine learning is established. • The hedging model effectively balances the pursuit of returns with the imperative of risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The magnitude of global surface temperature change in response to unit radiative forcing depends on the type and magnitude of forcing agent—a concept known as a “forcing efficacy.” However, the mechanisms behind the forcing efficacy are still unclear. In this study, we perform a set of simulations using CESM1 to calculate the efficacy of 10 different forcing agents defined in terms of fixed‐SST effective radiative forcing, and then use a Green's function approach to show that each forcing efficacy can be largely understood in terms of the radiative feedbacks associated with the different surface temperature patterns induced by the forcing agents (a pattern effect). We also quantify how the state dependence of feedbacks on global mean surface temperature anomalies impacts forcing efficacies. The results show that the forcing efficacy can be well reconstructed with a combination of pattern effect and state dependence.

This paper investigates price patterns of off-patent pharmaceuticals in Sweden. I show that price dynamics are dependent on the number of competitors in the market. The price patterns follow predictions from a model of dynamic price competition in which the demand for pharmaceuticals incorporates the known biases of consumers: habit persistence and brand preferences. Using the regulated market of Swedish pharmaceuticals, I show that price dynamics may help in identifying possible tacit collusion by manufacturers in markets where consumers experience behavioral frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The learning-from-experience model of Malmendier and Nagel [(2016) Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, 53–87] successfully reproduces the heterogeneity in inflation expectations across age groups. However, inflation expectations presumably depend on not only age and experience but also inflation regime. Therefore, this paper proposes an extended learning-from-experience model, in which expectation formation depends on inflation regime. Estimating the model with US data, I find that when inflation is higher and more volatile, households place more weight on recent data when making private forecasts. Moreover, in this regime, households rely more heavily on private forecasts than on public information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fractional calculus plays an increasingly important role in mechanics research. This review investigates the progress of an interdisciplinary approach, fractional plasticity (FP), based on fractional derivative and classic plasticity since FP was proposed as an efficient alternative to modelling state-dependent nonassociativity without an additional plastic potential function. Firstly, the stress length scale (SLS) is defined to conduct fractional differential, which influences the direction and intensity of the nonassociated flow of geomaterials owing to the integral definition of the fractional operator. Based on the role of SLS, two branches of FP, respectively considering the past stress and future reference critical state can be developed. Merits and demerits of these approaches are then discussed, which leads to the definition of the third branch of FP, by considering the influences of both past and future stress states. In addition, some specific cases and potential applications of the third branch can be realised when specific SLS are adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of repeatable behaviours that vary between individuals (animal personality) and the mechanisms that underpin these behaviours are of significant ecological and evolutionary importance. With current climatic trends predicted to facilitate biological invasions, we sought to examine how personality and behavioural syndromes may influence invasion potential in the face of a changing climate. We assessed a population of an invasive crayfish, Cherax destructor , in a laboratory setting for (1) the presence of temporally and contextually repeatable behavioural differences between individuals along three axes: (i) activity, (ii) boldness/shyness and (iii) exploration/avoidance, (2) correlations between body size, sex and behavioural traits at the between-individual level, (3) the influence of predicted near-future increases in temperature on personality and (4) the presence of behavioural syndromes (between-individual correlations among behaviours). Individuals exhibited repeatable variation along the three behavioural axes, providing support for the presence of animal personality. Body size was negatively correlated with exploration and activity, but sex was unrelated to personality across the three axes. Exploration increased with temperature, whereas the effect of temperature on activity was dependent on the treatment order. Finally, activity and exploration were positively correlated, indicative of a behavioural syndrome. This study provides evidence of state-dependent personality and support for the existence of behavioural syndromes which may facilitate biological invasions. Our work also provides evidence to suggest that predicted future increases in temperature will promote exploratory behaviour in invasive populations of C. destructor. • Invasive Cherax destructor exhibited personality along three behavioural axes. • Body size was negatively correlated with both active and exploratory behaviour. • Exploration of a novel environment increased at predicted near-future temperatures. • Correlations between behaviours provide evidence of an invasive syndrome. • Increasing exploration with temperature may increase future invasive potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a large battery of state-of-the-art nonlinear unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of carbon dioxide emission series for 28 industrialized countries, five BRICS and seven transition economies over a very long horizon, in some cases over more than two and a half centuries. The application of time-dependent and state-dependent nonlinear unit root tests separately provides mixed evidence regarding the time-series properties of CO2 emissions and a high degree of variability across the different tests. However, the use of hybrid nonlinear unit root tests, combining the presence of structural breaks with symmetric or asymmetric ESTAR adjustment, leads to the rejection of the unit root hypothesis in each of the countries under study with at least one of the hybrid tests. This has important climate policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial fishing decisions about where to land and sell catches have important efficiency and distributional implications for fishing communities. Unlike fishing location choices, landing locations choices have received little attention. We develop a model of fishers' landing sites in northern Norway. While fishers are highly responsive to travel distance, we find that expected revenues are a lesser driver of landing location choices. Rather, choices are dominated by strong state dependence, and most vessels always land at the same port. These results suggest that economic policies designed to redistribute landings in order to aid certain communities would not necessarily draw fishers away from their preferred landing sites. On the other hand, the responsiveness of some fishers to intraseasonal stock movements offers a glimpse of how climate change could reshape the spatial equilibria of landings and seafood production in years to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the factors underlying poverty transitions in Nairobi's slums focusing on whether differences in characteristics make people more prone to enter poverty and persist in, or whether past experience of poverty matters on future states. Understanding these issues is essential for the design of effective policy programs aimed at enhancing the lives of the poor. The paper uses an endogenous switching model, which accounts for initial conditions, non-random attrition, and unobserved heterogeneity. Estimations are based on a panel dataset from the Nairobi Demographic Surveillance System. Results indicate that true state dependence (TSD) constitutes the major factor driving poverty persistence. There are little heterogeneity effects. Even when household and individual observed characteristics differ notably, the TSD size remains very large. Active anti-poverty programs aimed at breaking the cycle of poverty constitute then the most appropriate policies for taking people out of poverty and preventing them to fall back in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activity alters natural habitats for many species. Understanding variation in animals' behavioural responses to these changing environments is critical. We show how signal detection theory can be used within a wider framework of state-dependent modelling to predict behavioural responses to a major environmental change: novel, exotic species. We allow thresholds for action to be a function of reserves, and demonstrate how optimal thresholds can be calculated. We term this framework 'state-dependent detection theory' (SDDT). We focus on behavioural and fitness outcomes when animals continue to use formerly adaptive thresholds following environmental change. In a simple example, we show that exposure to novel animals which appear dangerous-but are actually safe-(e.g. ecotourists) can have catastrophic consequences for 'prey' (organisms that respond as if the new organisms are predators), significantly increasing mortality even when the novel species is not predatory. SDDT also reveals that the effect on reproduction can be greater than the effect on lifespan. We investigate factors that influence the effect of novel organisms, and address the potential for behavioural adjustments (via evolution or learning) to recover otherwise reduced fitness. Although effects of environmental change are often difficult to predict, we suggest that SDDT provides a useful route ahead.

This paper investigates firms' access to bank credit in eleven euro area countries over the periods 2014–2019. Exploiting firm-level longitudinal data, we analyse loan demand and credit rationing probabilities, accounting for sample selection, unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. Empirical results show that small and informationally opaque businesses, with deteriorated public support and credit history, face greater difficulties in obtaining bank loans. Furthermore, we provide evidence of a significant degree of state dependence in access to credit. In particular, firms that have already experienced credit restrictions are more likely to face further constraints, while enterprises that applied for bank financing in the past seem to have easier access to credit. Focusing on the subset of firms actually needing additional bank financing, we also find that past credit restrictions significantly reduce their current demand, providing evidence of a significant discouragement effect. Plain English Summary: Access to bank credit is a key driver of firms' survival and growth, especially in bank-based financial systems. Building on detailed longitudinal survey data, this study investigates the determinants of access to bank financing by firms in the euro area, both in a static and dynamic setting. Most importantly, we account for the intertemporal nature of firms' loan demand behaviour and banks' credit granting choices and show that they are both characterized by significant persistence over time. We also find that repeated lending interactions enhance access to credit and that firms needing additional financing tend to be discouraged from applying after having experienced an actual credit restriction. Our findings shed light on the existence of substantial and persistent financial frictions in banking markets, which play a key role in amplifying adverse economic shocks, and call for policy and regulatory interventions to improve firms' access to credit and limit systemic vulnerabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stress–strain response of over-consolidated soft soil, e.g., clay, is dependent on its pre-consolidation history and material state. In this study, a state-dependent constitutive model for over-consolidated soft soils is proposed by extending the fractional plasticity originally developed for granular soil. The state-dependent stress-dilatancy and peak failure behaviour of over-consolidated soft soil are analytically captured through stress-fractional gradient of the current yielding surface. In addition, a reference yielding surface describing the pre-consolidation history of soft soil is proposed. A combined hardening rule expressed as a function of both the incremental plastic volumetric and shear strains is suggested. To validate the proposed model, a series of drained and undrained test results of different soft soils with a wide range of over-consolidation ratios are simulated and compared. It is found that without using additional plastic potentials and state parameters, the developed fractional model can capture the state-dependent hardening and softening responses of soft soils subjected to different over-consolidation states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The original state-dependent fractional stress-dilatancy (FSD) equation for soils is developed based on the critical state lines (CSLs) with linear form. However, experimental evidences showed that the CSLs of soil in the $p^{\prime}$–$q$ and $e$–$p^{\prime}$ planes could be both nonlinear as well due to significant material degradation. This note aims to propose a unified FSD equation for soils with arbitrary types of CSLs. Detailed derivations are provided. To validate the proposed FSD equation, a series of triaxial test results of ballast and rockfill are simulated.

To capture the state-dependent behaviour of granular soil, an interdisciplinary approach, fractional plasticity, was proposed. However, the permissible value of the fractional-derivative order has not been evaluated. This technical note aims to analyse the permissible range of fractional order from the perspective of modelling flow liquefaction of sand. A state-dependent fractional elastoplastic model without using predefined state parameters is proposed. Then, a series of test results of different sands under flow liquefactions are simulated. Permissible range of the fractional order is analysed by evaluating the second-order work for predicting flow liquefaction instability of sand, where it is suggested that the fractional order should be less than two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food acquisition is among the most important tasks faced by free-ranging animals. Predation and thermal risks, however, can make foraging a costly endeavor and foraging can preclude other important activities. Moreover, seasonal life cycle events such as hibernation impose energetic thresholds and time constraints on foraging. These factors interact with an animal's endogenous state to influence foraging behavior. We tested a suite of predictions based on foraging theory to explore the effects of thermal environment, body condition, and conspecific density on aboveground activity (which is primarily foraging activity) of the northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus), an imperiled rodent that hibernates for 9 months each year. We took advantage of the squirrels' semi-fossorial lifestyle to document daily aboveground activity by attaching geolocators to squirrels. We modeled squirrel activity with generalized linear mixed-effects models to document the relative importance of thermal environment, body condition, and conspecific density for daily aboveground activity. Aboveground activity by northern Idaho ground squirrels increased throughout their active season and leaner squirrels increased their activity more than heavier squirrels as residual foraging opportunities diminished. Thermal conditions also influenced squirrel activity: squirrels spent less time above ground during extreme temperatures and on days with significant precipitation. Aboveground activity of northern Idaho ground squirrels largely adhered to predictions of risk-sensitive and state-dependent foraging theory. Management actions that enhance forage will likely improve the probability of recovery for this federally threatened species by minimizing trade-offs squirrels need to make to acquire sufficient food to survive hibernation and reproduce in subsequent years. Significance statement: Acquiring food is a vital task for wild animals, but foraging can be dangerous. Hibernation imposes annual energetic requirements animals must meet within a short time when food is available and the animal is active. Hibernating species, therefore, must navigate trade-offs among foraging, predation risk, and thermal intolerance. We investigated how these pressures influence daily foraging activity of the northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus), a federally threatened species. Ground squirrels forage above ground during the active season and retreat to burrows to avoid predation and extreme weather but accept greater risks to forage as hibernation approaches. Additionally, lean squirrels with high energetic needs forage more than heavy squirrels, exposing lean squirrels to higher predation risk. Improving forage may improve recovery odds for this imperiled species by allowing squirrels to reduce their mortality risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]