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1. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Published
2022

8. The legitimacy‐conferring capacity of constitutional courts: Evidence from a comparative survey experiment1.

Author

STERNBERG, SEBASTIAN, BROUARD, SYLVAIN, and HÖNNIGE, CHRISTOPH

Subjects
*CONSTITUTIONAL courts, *PUBLIC opinion, *GOVERNMENT policy, *ORGANIZATIONAL legitimacy, *PUBLIC support
Abstract

Can constitutional court decisions shape public opinion on a governmental policy? Previous studies have focused on the US Supreme Court, which enjoys a high degree of public support as the major resource of power for courts. In this study, we examine the extent to which courts can influence public opinion regarding a government bill at European courts. First, we argue that the public support for courts also allows them to move public opinion on policies into the direction of their decisions. This works in both directions: they can confer legitimacy to a policy that they support, but they can also de‐legitimize a policy that they oppose. Second, we argue that this mechanism strongly depends on the amount of support that a court receives. It only has an effect for courts that possess a higher institutional legitimacy and among the group of citizens trusting a court. We test our arguments by combining a most different systems design for France and Germany with a survey priming experiment on a school security bill. France and Germany are selected for a most different systems design as they exhibit different institutional designs as well as different levels of support for the court at the aggregate level. The survey experiment is implemented within large national election surveys, the German Internet Panel and the French National Election Study. Both experiments contain more than 2,600 respondents each. Our survey experiment primes for decision outcomes and different institutions to understand whether there are differences between an institution supporting and opposing a policy and between a court and alternative institutions. Our findings confirm that with higher public support, courts can move the opinion of citizens to both legitimize and de‐legitimize a policy. This effect can be found at the aggregate level for a court enjoying higher public support, but also at the individual level for respondents with higher trust in the court. Interestingly, courts can even move the opinion of citizens with strong prior attitudes in the opposite direction, if these citizens highly trust the court. These findings have implications beyond the study itself. First, they confirm that the legitimacy‐conferring effect can also be observed for European courts, not only for the US Supreme Court. Second, they show that the relevance of a mechanism identified for a single case, like the US Supreme Court, might only hold for specific conditions. As public support for courts strongly varies across countries in Europe, we also expect the impact of any mechanism relying on public support to strongly vary, as we can observe in our own analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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10. The legitimacy-conferring capacity of constitutional courts: Evidence from a comparative survey experiment

Author

Sternberg, Sebastian, Brouard, Sylvain, and Hönnige, Christoph

Subjects
constitutional court, ddc:320, public opinion, Dewey Decimal Classification::300 | Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie::320 | Politik, experiments
Abstract

Can constitutional court decisions shape public opinion on a governmental policy? Previous studies have focused on the US Supreme Court, which enjoys a high degree of public support as the major resource of power for courts. In this study, we examine the extent to which courts can influence public opinion regarding a government bill at European courts. First, we argue that the public support for courts also allows them to move public opinion on policies into the direction of their decisions. This works in both directions: they can confer legitimacy to a policy that they support, but they can also de-legitimize a policy that they oppose. Second, we argue that this mechanism strongly depends on the amount of support that a court receives. It only has an effect for courts that possess a higher institutional legitimacy and among the group of citizens trusting a court. We test our arguments by combining a most different systems design for France and Germany with a survey priming experiment on a school security bill. France and Germany are selected for a most different systems design as they exhibit different institutional designs as well as different levels of support for the court at the aggregate level. The survey experiment is implemented within large national election surveys, the German Internet Panel and the French National Election Study. Both experiments contain more than 2,600 respondents each. Our survey experiment primes for decision outcomes and different institutions to understand whether there are differences between an institution supporting and opposing a policy and between a court and alternative institutions. Our findings confirm that with higher public support, courts can move the opinion of citizens to both legitimize and de-legitimize a policy. This effect can be found at the aggregate level for a court enjoying higher public support, but also at the individual level for respondents with higher trust in the court. Interestingly, courts can even move the opinion of citizens with strong prior attitudes in the opposite direction, if these citizens highly trust the court. These findings have implications beyond the study itself. First, they confirm that the legitimacy-conferring effect can also be observed for European courts, not only for the US Supreme Court. Second, they show that the relevance of a mechanism identified for a single case, like the US Supreme Court, might only hold for specific conditions. As public support for courts strongly varies across countries in Europe, we also expect the impact of any mechanism relying on public support to strongly vary, as we can observe in our own analysis.

Published
2021

11. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Akdeniz, Esra, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Bai, Ling, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, de Rooij, Eline Adriane, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eder, Christina, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Freire, Danilo, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Halbherr, Verena, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Israel, Sabine, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kanjana, Jennifer, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Khan, Salman, additional, Khatua, Sayak, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lee, Robin C., additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Liu, David, additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McDonnell, Robert Myles, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Pickup, Mark, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Reichert, Frank, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Suchow, Jordan, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Wu, Cary, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, and Żółtak, Tomasz, additional

Published
2021
Full Text
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12. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

13. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

14. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix S., additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Huth-Stöckle, Nora, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kołczyńska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John Seungmin, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan J.B., additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2021
Full Text
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15. Forecasting elections in multiparty systems: a bayesian approach combining polls and fundamentals

Author

Stoetzer, Lukas F, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Gschwend, Thomas, Munzert, Simon, Sternberg, Sebastian, University of Zurich, and Stoetzer, Lukas F

Subjects
German Federal Elections 2017, 3312 Sociology and Political Science, 3320 Political Science and International Relations, 320 Political science, 10113 Institute of Political Science, forecasting, public opinion polls, multiparty elections, NewZealand General Election 2017
Published
2019

16. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, MAYORGA, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Subjects
Sociologie & sciences sociales [H10] [Sciences sociales & comportementales, psychologie], Open Science, Sociology & social sciences [H10] [Social & behavioral sciences, psychology], Data Science, Replication, Crowdsourcing, Immigration, Social Policy
Abstract

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process.

Published
2019

17. No public, no power? Analyzing the importance of public support for constitutional review with novel data and machine learning methods

Author

Sternberg, Sebastian

Subjects
320 Politik
Abstract

Constitutional review is a central feature of liberal democracy. However, with neither the power of the purse nor the sword, the mere presence of constitutional courts does not automatically imply the effective exercise of judicial authority. Courts must rely on elected officials for the implementation of their rulings. The ability of a court to ensure that government officials faithfully comply with judicial decisions critically depends on the existence of sufficient public support for the court and the public’s ability to monitor legislative responses to judicial decisions. In this dissertation, I study the importance of public support for the relationship between court-government and court-public. I draw on the judicial politics literature on separation of powers, public support and legislative noncompliance and extend existing theory in two regards. First, I argue that not all courts possess the sufficient level of public support necessary to ensure legislative compliance. Varying degrees of public support strongly affect the leverage that courts possess in judicial-legislative and judicial-public interactions. Second, I argue that courts actively take measures in the form of the institutional tools at their disposal when they expect legislative noncompliance. One such tool is decision language, whose strategic usage allows judges to pressure the government or hide likely noncompliance from public view, if necessary. I test these arguments empirically by combining classical inferential methods such as survey experiments with novel data on court decision-making and methodologies from the field of machine learning and computational linguistic. Throughout all chapters, I employ a comparative perspective and test my arguments using data on the German Federal Constitutional Court, a court with strong and robust levels of public support, and the less popular French Conseil Constitutionnel. My empirical evidence shows that considering varying degrees of public support and the institutional tools of judges indeed helps to generate a more accurate picture of how judges behave in judicial-legislative and judicial-public interactions. Three conclusions are drawn. First, court decisions can legitimize public policies, albeit only if the court itself is perceived as a legitimate institution. Second, courts are more attentive to the political environment of a decision than previously thought: depending on their degree of public support, they actively adapt the language of their decisions as a function of the risk of noncompliance and their institutional support. Third, public support and other political context factors are important for judicial decision-making not only from an inferential but also from a predictive perspective. The results of my analyses confirm that public support plays a crucial role for courts’ ability to effectively exercise constitutional review, as well as highlighting the benefits of increased differentiation of constitutional courts institutional tools and their diffuse support from a comparative view. Therefore, my results have implications for the growing literature on strategic courts using their institutional tools to address potential noncompliance and the general awareness of judges for their institutional reputation. Overall, this project offers new perspectives on the most important resource of judges – their public support – and has important implications not only for research on judicial politics but also for the efficacy of constitutional review in a constitutional state, and thus the sustainability of liberal democracy.

Published
2019

19. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

Author

Breznau, Nate, primary, Rinke, Eike Mark, additional, Wuttke, Alexander, additional, Adem, Muna, additional, Adriaans, Jule, additional, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, additional, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, additional, Auer, Daniel, additional, Azevedo, Flavio, additional, Bahnsen, Oke, additional, Balzer, Dave, additional, Bauer, Gerrit, additional, Bauer, Paul, additional, Baumann, Markus, additional, Baute, Sharon, additional, Benoit, Verena, additional, Berning, Carl, additional, Bernauer, Julian, additional, Berthold, Anna, additional, Bethke, Felix, additional, Biegert, Thomas, additional, Blinzler, Katharina, additional, Blumenberg, Johannes, additional, Bol, Thijs, additional, Bobzien, Licia, additional, Bohman, Andrea, additional, Bostic, Amie, additional, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, additional, Burgdorf, Katharina, additional, Burger, Kaspar, additional, Busch, Kathrin, additional, Castillo, Juan Carlos, additional, Chan, Nathan, additional, Christmann, Pablo, additional, Connelly, Roxanne, additional, Czymara, Christian S., additional, Damian, Elena, additional, Edelmann, Achim, additional, Ecker, Alejandro, additional, Eger, Maureen A., additional, Ellerbrock, Simon, additional, Forke, Anna, additional, Forster, Andrea Gabriele, additional, Gavras, Konstantin, additional, Gayle, Vernon, additional, Gaasendam, Chris, additional, Gessler, Theresa, additional, Gnambs, Timo, additional, Godefroidt, Amélie, additional, Greinert, Alexander, additional, Groß, Martin, additional, Grömping, Max, additional, Gruber, Stefan, additional, Gummer, Tobias, additional, Hadjar, Andreas, additional, Heisig, Jan Paul, additional, Hellmeier, Sebastian, additional, Heyne, Stefanie, additional, Hirsch, Magdalena, additional, Hjerm, Mikael, additional, Hochman, Oshrat, additional, Höffler, Jan H., additional, Hövermann, Andreas, additional, Huth, Nora, additional, Hunger, Sophia, additional, Hunkler, Christian, additional, Ignacz, Zsofia, additional, Jacobs, Laura, additional, Jacobsen, Jannes, additional, Jaeger, Bastian, additional, Jungkunz, Sebastian, additional, Jungmann, Nils, additional, Kauff, Mathias, additional, Kleinert, Manuel, additional, Klinger, Julia, additional, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, additional, Kolczynska, Marta, additional, Kuk, John, additional, Kunißen, Katharina, additional, Kurti, Dafina, additional, Lersch, Philipp M., additional, Löbel, Lea-Maria, additional, Lutscher, Philipp, additional, Mader, Matthias, additional, Madia, Joan Eliel, additional, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, additional, Maldonado, Luis, additional, Marahrens, Helge, additional, Martin, Nicole, additional, Martinez, Paul, additional, Mayerl, Jochen, additional, MAYORGA, OSCAR Jose, additional, McManus, Patricia A., additional, Meeusen, Cecil, additional, Meierrieks, Daniel, additional, Mellon, Jonathan, additional, Merhout, Friedolin, additional, Merk, Samuel, additional, Meyer, Daniel, additional, Micheli, Leticia, additional, Mijs, Jonathan, additional, Moya, Cristóbal, additional, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, additional, Nüst, Daniel, additional, Nygård, Olav, additional, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, additional, Otte, Gunnar, additional, Pechenkina, Anna, additional, Prosser, Christopher, additional, Raes, Louis, additional, Ralston, Kevin, additional, Ramos, Miguel, additional, Roets, Arne, additional, Rogers, Jonathan, additional, Ropers, Guido, additional, Samuel, Robin, additional, Sand, Gergor, additional, Schachter, Ariela, additional, Schaeffer, Merlin, additional, Schieferdecker, David, additional, Schlueter, Elmar, additional, Schmidt, Katja, additional, Schmidt, Regine, additional, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, additional, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, additional, Schneider, Jürgen, additional, Schoonvelde, Martijn, additional, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, additional, Schumann, Sandy, additional, Schunck, Reinhard, additional, Schupp, Juergen, additional, Seuring, Julian, additional, Silber, Henning, additional, Sleegers, Willem W. A., additional, Sonntag, Nico, additional, Staudt, Alexander, additional, Steiber, Nadia, additional, Steiner, Nils, additional, Sternberg, Sebastian, additional, Stiers, Dieter, additional, Striessnig, Erich, additional, Stojmenovska, Dragana, additional, Storz, Nora, additional, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, additional, Teltemann, Janna, additional, Tibajev, Andrey, additional, Tung, Brian B., additional, Vagni, Giacomo, additional, Van Assche, Jasper, additional, van der Linden, Meta, additional, van der Noll, Jolanda, additional, Van Hootegem, Arno, additional, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, additional, Voicu, Bogdan, additional, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, additional, Wagner, Kyle, additional, Wehl, Nadja, additional, Werner, Hannah, additional, Wiernik, Brenton M., additional, Winter, Fabian, additional, Wolf, Christof, additional, Yamada, Yuki, additional, Zakula, Björn, additional, Ziller, Conrad, additional, Zins, Stefan, additional, Zhang, Nan, additional, Żółtak, Tomasz, additional, and Nguyen, Hung Hoang Viet, additional

Published
2019
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22. New German election forecast: Merkel's party will win but lose seats

Author

Gschwend, Thomas, Munzert, Simon, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Sternberg, Sebastian, and Stoetzer, Lukas F.

Subjects
Germany -- Elections, Election forecasting, Business, Computers and office automation industries, Telecommunications industry, Alternative for Germany -- Political activity, Christian Democratic Union -- Political activity
Abstract

Byline: Thomas Gschwend;Simon Munzert;Marcel Neunhoeffer;Sebastian Sternberg;Lukas F. Stoetzer German citizens head to the polling booths Sunday to vote for the German parliament, the Bundestag. A majority is expected to vote [...]

Published
2017

24. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul, Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Berning, Carl, Bernauer, Julian, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bol, Thijs, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian, Damian, Elena, Edelmann, Achim, Ecker, Alejandro, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gaasendam, Chris, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Greinert, Alexander, Groß, Martin, Grömping, Max, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Huth, Nora, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kolczynska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti, Dafina, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan Eliel, Malancu, Natalia Cornelia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, Mcmanus, Patricia, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gergor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Juergen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Striessnig, Erich, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper, Linden, Meta, Noll, Jolanda, Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke Maria Antoinet, Wagner, Kyle, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Zakula, Björn, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Zhang, Nan, and Tomasz Żółtak

25. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H.V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

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