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The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigated warming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs. Expected final online publication date for the

Small pelagic fish are important marine ecosystem components and highly variable fisheries resources. In the California Current upwelling system, Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) has supported important fisheries in the past, but contrary to expectations, remains at low biomass despite recent warm ocean conditions. We developed a data-driven, process-based population model that reproduces fluctuations of the US Pacific sardine population based on ocean temperature, early life stage and adult food, and upwelling strength. The lack of sardine recovery after 2014 can be explained by reduced food availability. Ensemble projections for the 21st century driven by downscaled ocean-biogeochemical simulations under three Earth system models (ESMs) show a likely recovery to early 2000s sardine abundance and catch by mid-century, due to increased recruitment. Ecological process uncertainty (ensemble configuration range) is of the same magnitude as uncertainty among ESM projections, and uncertainty related to the thermal optimum of early life stages dominates after 2070. Even for a fish species presumably favoured by warmer conditions, future climate projections entail risks of stock declines in food-limited years and when passing unknown thermal optima. Quantification of combined environmental driver impacts and sources of uncertainty to projections under novel conditions open new pathways for environment-responsive fisheries management strategies.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data types on the fit, performance and predictive ability of SDMs by comparing models trained with four data types for a heavily exploited pelagic fish, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Northwest Atlantic: two fishery-dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) and two fishery-independent (satellite-linked electronic tags, pop-up archival tags). We found that all four data types can result in robust models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted the need to consider ecological realism in model selection and interpretation regardless of data type. Differences among models were primarily attributed to biases in how each data type, and the associated representation of absences, sampled the environment and summarized the resulting species distributions. Outputs from model ensembles and a model trained on all pooled data both proved effective for combining inferences across data types and provided more ecologically realistic predictions than individual models. Our results provide valuable guidance for practitioners developing SDMs. With increasing access to diverse data sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches that can explicitly leverage strengths of individual data types while statistically accounting for limitations, such as sampling biases.

Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long-term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystems on monthly, seasonal, and multi-month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecasts of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation-based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years—are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems1–3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers4–7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making8–11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world’s oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occur, empowering stakeholders to take appropriate actions based on their risk profile. These results highlight the potential for operational MHW forecasts, analogous to forecasts of extreme weather phenomena, to promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

IntroductionUnderstanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes.MethodsThis study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions.ResultsOverall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges.DiscussionAs climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator–prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998–2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres ( Uria aalge ), Brandt's cormorants ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) and California sea lions ( Zalophus californianus ), but not rhinoceros auklets ( Cerorhinca monocerata ). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

Whale entanglements with fishing gear, exacerbated by changing environmental conditions, pose significant risk to whale populations. Management tools used to reduce entanglement risk, for example temporary area restrictions on fishing, can have negative economic consequences for fishing communities. Balancing whale protection with sustaining productive fisheries is therefore a challenge experienced worldwide. In the California Current Ecosystem, ecosystem indicators have been used to understand the environmental dynamics that lead to increased whale entanglement risk in a lucrative crab fishery. However, an assessment of socio-economic risk for this fishery, as in many other regions, is missing. We estimate retrospectively the losses from ex-vessel revenue experienced by commercial Dungeness crab fishers in California during two seasons subject to whale entanglement mitigation measures using a Linear-Cragg hurdle modeling approach which incorporated estimates of pre-season crab abundance. In the 2020 fishing season, our results suggest total revenues would have been $14.4 million higher in the Central Management Area of California in the absence of closures and other disturbances. In the 2019 fishing season, our results suggest ex-vessel revenues would have been $9.4 million higher in the Central Management Area and $0.3 million higher in the Northern Management Area. Our evaluation should motivate the development of strategies which maximize whale protection whilst promoting productive, sustainable and economically-viable fisheries.

Understanding the at-sea movements of wide-ranging seabird species throughout their annual cycle is essential for their conservation and management. Habitat use and resource partitioning of Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed (Phoebastria nigripes) albatross are well-described during the breeding period but are less understood during the post-breeding period, which represents ~40% of their annual cycle. Resource partitioning may be reduced during post-breeding, when birds are not constrained to return to the nest site regularly and can disperse to reduce competitive pressure. We assessed the degree of spatial segregation in the post-breeding distributions of Laysan (n = 82) and black-footed albatrosses (n = 61) using geolocator tags between 2008 and 2012 from two large breeding colonies in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, Midway Atoll, and Tern Island. We characterized the species-and colony-specific foraging and focal distributions (represented by the 95 and 50th density contours, respectively) and quantified segregation in at-sea habitat use between species and colonies. Laysan and black-footed albatross showed consistent and significant at-sea segregation in focal areas across colonies, indicating that resource partitioning persists during post-breeding. Within breeding colonies, segregation of foraging areas between the two species was more evident for birds breeding at Tern Island. Spatial segregation decreased as the post-breeding season progressed, when spatial distributions of both species became more dispersed. In contrast to studies conducted on breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross, we found that sea surface temperature distinguished post-breeding habitats of black-footed albatrosses between colonies, with black-footed albatrosses from Midway Atoll occurring in cooler waters (3.6°C cooler on average). Our results reveal marked at-sea segregation between Laysan and black-footed albatross breeding at two colonies during a critical but understudied phase in their annual cycle. The observed variation in species-environment relationships underscores the importance of sampling multiple colonies and temporal periods to more thoroughly understand the spatial distributions of pelagic seabirds.

Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) are highly productive regions of the world ocean under anthropogenic pressures; we analyzed trends in sea surface temperature (SST), cloud fraction (CF), and chlorophyll concentration (CHL) over the period 1998–2019. Trends in these parameters within LMEs diverged from the world ocean. SST and CF inside LMEs increased at greater rates inside LMEs, whereas CHL decreased at a greater rates. CHL declined in 86% of all LMEs and of those trends, 70% were statistically significant. Complementary analyses suggest phytoplankton functional types within LMEs have also diverged from those characteristic of the world ocean, most notably, the contribution of diatoms and dinoflagellates, which have declined within LMEs. LMEs appear to be warming rapidly and receiving less solar radiation than the world ocean, which may be contributing to changes at the base of the food chain. Despite increased fishing effort, fishery yields in LMEs have not increased, pointing to limitations related to productivity. These changes raise concerns over the stability of these ecosystems and their continued ability to support services to human populations.

In late 2020, models predicted that a strong La Niña would take place for the first time since 2013, and we assessed whether physical and biological indicators in 2021 were similar to past La Niñas in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Oceanic Niño Index indeed remained negative throughout 2021; the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index, however, remained strongly negative. The seventh largest marine heatwave on record was unexpectedly present from April to the end of 2021; however, similar to past La Niñas, this mass of warm water mostly remained seaward of the continental shelf. As expected from past La Niñas, upwelling and chlorophyll were mostly high and sea surface temperature was low throughout the CCE; however, values were close to average south of Point Conception. Similar to past La Niñas, abundances of lipid-rich, northern copepods off Oregon increased. In northern California, unlike past La Niñas, the body size of North Pacific krill (Euphausia pacifica) was close to average. Predictably, overall krill abundance was above average in far northern California but, unexpectedly, below average south of Cape Mendocino. Off Oregon, similar to past La Niñas, larval abundances of three of six coastal species rose, while five of six southern/offshore taxa decreased in 2021. Off California, as expected based on 2020, Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax) were very abundant, while Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax) were low. Similar to past La Niñas, market squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) and young of the year (YOY) Pacific Hake (Merluccius pacificus), YOY sanddabs (Citharichthys spp.), and YOY rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) increased. Southern mesopelagic (e.g., Panama lightfish Vinciguerria lucetia, Mexican lampfish Triphoturus mexicanus) larvae decreased as expected but were still well above average, while northern mesopelagic (e.g., northern lampfish Stenobrachius leucopsarus) larvae increased but were still below average. In line with predictions, most monitored bird species had above-average reproduction in Oregon and California. California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) pup count, growth, and weight were high given the abundant Anchovy forage. The CCE entered an enduring La Niña in 2021, and assessing the responses of various ecosystem components helped articulate aspects of the system that are well understood and those that need further study.

Efforts to manage living marine resources (LMRs) under climate change need projections of future ocean conditions, yet most global climate models (GCMs) poorly represent critical coastal habitats. GCM utility for LMR applications will increase with higher spatial resolution but obstacles including computational and data storage costs, obstinate regional biases, and formulations prioritizing global robustness over regional skill will persist. Downscaling can help address GCM limitations, but significant improvements are needed to robustly support LMR science and management. We synthesize past ocean downscaling efforts to suggest a protocol to achieve this goal. The protocol emphasizes LMR-driven design to ensure delivery of decision-relevant information. It prioritizes ensembles of downscaled projections spanning the range of ocean futures with durations long enough to capture climate change signals. This demands judicious resolution refinement, with pragmatic consideration for LMR-essential ocean features superseding theoretical investigation. Statistical downscaling can complement dynamical approaches in building these ensembles. Inconsistent use of bias correction indicates a need for objective best practices. Application of the suggested protocol should yield regional ocean projections that, with effective dissemination and translation to decision-relevant analytics, can robustly support LMR science and management under climate change.

Marine protected areas (MPAs), particularly large MPAs, are increasing in number and size around the globe in part to facilitate the conservation of marine megafauna under the assumption that large-scale MPAs better align with vagile life histories; however, this alignment is not well established. Using a global tracking dataset from 36 species across five taxa, chosen to reflect the span of home range size in highly mobile marine megafauna, we show most MPAs are too small to encompass complete home ranges of most species. Based on size alone, 40% of existing MPAs could encompass the home ranges of the smallest ranged species, while only < 1% of existing MPAs could encompass those of the largest ranged species. Further, where home ranges and MPAs overlapped in real geographic space, MPAs encompassed < 5% of core areas used by all species. Despite most home ranges of mobile marine megafauna being much larger than existing MPAs, we demonstrate how benefits from MPAs are still likely to accrue by targeting seasonal aggregations and critical life history stages and through other management techniques.

Science-based natural resource management is necessary for agencies to effectively meet their goals and mandates. However, this scientific basis needs to be advanced and evolved with ecosystems exp...

Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete but prolonged periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures—can drastically alter ocean ecosystems, with profound ecological and socioeconomic impacts1–8. Considerable effort has been directed at understanding the patterns, drivers and trends of MHWs globally9–11. Typically, MHWs are characterized on the basis of their intensity and persistence at a given location—an approach that is particularly relevant for corals and other sessile organisms that must endure increased temperatures. However, many ecologically and commercially important marine species respond to environmental disruptions by relocating to favourable habitats, and dramatic range shifts of mobile marine species are among the conspicuous impacts of MHWs1,4,12,13. Whereas spatial temperature shifts have been studied extensively in the context of long-term warming trends14–18, they are unaccounted for in existing global MHW analyses. Here we introduce thermal displacement as a metric that characterizes MHWs by the spatial shifts of surface temperature contours, instead of by local temperature anomalies, and use an observation-based global sea surface temperature dataset to calculate thermal displacements for all MHWs from 1982 to 2019. We show that thermal displacements during MHWs vary from tens to thousands of kilometres across the world’s oceans and do not correlate spatially with MHW intensity. Furthermore, short-term thermal displacements during MHWs are of comparable magnitude to century-scale shifts inferred from warming trends18, although their global spatial patterns are very different. These results expand our understanding of MHWs and their potential impacts on marine species, revealing which regions are most susceptible to thermal displacement, and how such shifts may change under projected ocean warming. The findings also highlight the need for marine resource management to account for MHW-driven spatial shifts, which are of comparable scale to those associated with long-term climate change and are already happening. Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.

Wild-capture fisheries help provide food security to billions of people, yet bycatch of non-target species threatens ecosystem health and fishery sustainability. Appropriate monitoring and fisheries management can mitigate bycatch but require standardized bycatch data to be robustly recorded and effectively disseminated. Here we integrated and analysed 30,473 species-specific bycatch records from 95 US fisheries in 2010–2015. We examined patterns in fish and invertebrate, marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle bycatch and developed a standardized scoring system, the relative bycatch index, to assess bycatch performance of each fishery. The estimated amount of fish and invertebrate discards totalled 1.93 million tonnes (4.26 billion pounds) over the 6-year period. We found that the national discard rate is 10.5%, considerably lower than past estimates. Results from our relative bycatch index analysis can be used to facilitate management intervention strategies for particular fisheries or gear types, such as shrimp and otter trawls and several pelagic longline and gillnet fisheries, which had the poorest bycatch performance. These findings underscore the need for continued, high-quality, easily accessible bycatch information to better support fisheries management in the United States and globally. The sustainability of wild fisheries is limited by the capture of non-target species. This study estimates that such ‘bycatch’ from US fisheries totalled 1.93 million tonnes in 2010–2015, with a 10.5% discard rate. Despite considerable improvements, certain longline, trawl and gillnet fisheries have persistent bycatch issues.

Juvenile salmon Oncorhynchus spp. experience variable mortality rates during their first few months in the ocean, and high growth during this period is critical to minimize size-selective predation. Examining links between the physical environment and foraging ecology is important to understand mechanisms that drive growth. These mechanisms are complex and include interactions among the physical environment, forage availability, bioenergetics, and salmon foraging behavior. Our objectives were to explore how seascape features (biological and physical) influence juvenile Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha foraging at annual and feeding-event scales in the California Current Ecosystem. We demonstrate that forage abundance was the most influential determinant of mean salmon stomach fullness at the annual scale, while at the feeding-event scale, fullness increased with greater cumulative upwelling during the 10 d prior and at closer distances to thermal fronts. Upwelling promotes nutrient enrichment and productivity, while fronts concentrate organisms, likely resulting in available prey to salmon and increased stomach fullness. Salmon were also more likely to consume krill when there was high prior upwelling, and switched to non-krill invertebrates (i.e. amphipods, decapods, copepods) in weaker upwelling conditions. As salmon size increased from 72-250 mm, salmon were more likely to consume fish, equal amounts of krill, and fewer non-krill invertebrates. Broad seascape processes determined overall prey availability and fullness in a given year, while fine- and meso-scale processes influenced local accessibility of prey to individual salmon. Therefore, processes occurring at multiple scales will influence how marine organisms respond to changing environments.

Climate change and increased variability and intensity of climate events, in combination with recovering protected species populations and highly capitalized fisheries, are posing new challenges for fisheries management. We examine socio-ecological features of the unprecedented 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave to understand the potential causes for record numbers of whale entanglements in the central California Current crab fishery. We observed habitat compression of coastal upwelling, changes in availability of forage species (krill and anchovy), and shoreward distribution shift of foraging whales. We propose that these ecosystem changes, combined with recovering whale populations, contributed to the exacerbation of entanglements throughout the marine heatwave. In 2016, domoic acid contamination prompted an unprecedented delay in the opening of California’s Dungeness crab fishery that inadvertently intensified the spatial overlap between whales and crab fishery gear. We present a retroactive assessment of entanglements to demonstrate that cooperation of fishers, resource managers, and scientists could mitigate future entanglement risk by developing climate-ready fisheries approaches, while supporting thriving fishing communities., Climate-driven extreme events may have strong local impacts on marine organisms and fisheries. Here the authors report increased whale entanglements in the northeast Pacific following a marine heatwave, and propose compression of coastal upwelling habitat as the potential driver.

With accelerating climate variability and change, novel approaches are needed to warn managers of changing ecosystem state and to identify appropriate management actions. One strategy is using indicator species—like seabirds as ecosystem sentinels—to monitor changes in marine environments. Here, we explore the utility of western gulls (Larus occidentalis) breeding on Southeast Farallon Island as a proxy of ecosystem state in coastal California by investigating the interannual variability in gull foraging behavior from 2013 to 2019 in relation to upwelling conditions, prey abundances, and overlap with humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as gulls frequently feed in association with whales. Western gulls have a flexible diet and forage on land and at-sea. We combined gull GPS tracking data during the incubation phase, ecosystem survey data on multiple predator and prey species, and derived oceanographic upwelling products. When foraging at sea, gulls overlapped with cool upwelled waters. During 2015–2017, 25% more gull foraging trips visited land than in other years, where land trips were on average ∼8 h longer and 40% further than sea trips, which coincided with high compression of coastally upwelled waters (habitat compression) in 2015–2016. Gull foraging behavior was related to local prey abundances, where more foraging occurred near shore or on land when prey abundances were low. However, visual surveys indicated that ∼70% of humpback whale observations co-occurred with gulls, and the year with the most foraging on land (2017) corresponded to regionally low relative whale abundances, suggesting gull movement patterns could be an indicator of whale presence. Further, both whales and gulls forage near-shore under high upwelling habitat compression and low krill abundance. Hence, the deployment of year-round tags on gulls with the capability of near real-time data accessibility could provide important fine-scale metrics for conservation and management of the threatened yet recovering eastern Pacific humpback whale population between infrequent and coarse surveys. Entanglement in fishing gear and ship strikes are major inhibitors to whale recovery and have increased concomitantly with human use of ocean resources. Moreover, as climate variability and change increase, novel indicators should be explored and implemented to inform marine spatial planning and protect species across multiple scales from new risks.