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Background: Timing of initiation of screening for breast cancer is controversial in the United States.Objective: To determine the threshold relative risk (RR) at which the harm-benefit ratio of screening women aged 40 to 49 years equals that of biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years.Design: Comparative modeling study.Data Sources: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and medical literature.Target Population: A contemporary cohort of women eligible for routine screening.Time Horizon: Lifetime.Perspective: Societal.Intervention: Mammography screening starting at age 40 versus 50 years with different screening methods (film, digital) and screening intervals (annual, biennial).Outcome Measures: Benefits: life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted; harms: false-positive mammography findings; harm-benefit ratios: false-positive findings/life-years gained, false-positive findings/deaths averted.Results Of Base-case Analysis: Screening average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years biennially yields the same false-positive findings/life-years gained as biennial screening with digital mammography starting at age 40 years for women with a 2-fold increased risk above average (median threshold RR, 1.9 [range across models, 1.5 to 4.4]). The threshold RRs are higher for annual screening with digital mammography (median, 4.3 [range, 3.3 to 10]) and when false-positive findings/deaths averted is used as an outcome measure instead of false-positive findings/life-years gained. The harm-benefit ratio for film mammography is more favorable than for digital mammography because film has a lower false-positive rate.Results Of Sensitivity Analysis: The threshold RRs changed slightly when a more comprehensive measure of harm was used and were relatively insensitive to lower adherence assumptions.Limitation: Risk was assumed to influence onset of disease without influencing screening performance.Conclusion: Women aged 40 to 49 years with a 2-fold increased risk have similar harm-benefit ratios for biennial screening mammography as average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years. Threshold RRs required for favorable harm-benefit ratios vary by screening method, interval, and outcome measure.Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The DMIST (Digital Mammography Imaging Screening Trial) reported improved breast cancer detection with digital mammography compared with film mammography in selected population subgroups, but it did not assess the economic value of digital relative to film mammography screening.Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of digital mammography screening for breast cancer.Design: Validated, discrete-event simulation model.Data Sources: Data from DMIST and publicly available U.S. data.Target Population: U.S. women age 40 years or older.Time Horizon: Lifetime.Perspective: Societal and Medicare.Intervention: All-film mammography screening; all-digital mammography screening; and targeted digital mammography screening, which is age-targeted digital mammography (for women <50 years of age) and age- and density-targeted digital mammography (for women <50 years of age or women > or =50 years of age with dense breasts).Outcome Measures: Cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.Results Of Base-case Analysis: All-digital mammography screening cost $331,000 (95% CI, $268,000 to $403,000) per QALY gained relative to all-film mammography screening but was more costly and less effective than targeted digital mammography screening. Targeted digital mammography screening resulted in more screen-detected cases of cancer and fewer deaths from cancer than either all-film or all-digital mammography screening, with cost-effectiveness estimates ranging from $26,500 (CI, $21,000 to $33,000) per QALY gained for age-targeted digital mammography to $84,500 (CI, $75,000 to $93,000) per QALY gained for age- and density-targeted digital mammography. In the Medicare population, the cost-effectiveness of density-targeted digital mammography screening varied from a base-case estimate of $97,000 (CI, $77,000 to $131,000) to $257,000 per QALY gained (CI, $91,000 to $536,000) in the alternative-case analyses, in which the sensitivity of film mammography was increased and the sensitivity of digital mammography in women with nondense breasts was decreased.Results Of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were sensitive to the cost of digital mammography and to the prevalence of dense breasts.Limitations: Results were dependent on model assumptions and DMIST findings.Conclusion: Relative to film mammography, screening for breast cancer by using all-digital mammography is not cost-effective. Age-targeted screening with digital mammography seems cost-effective, whereas density-targeted screening strategies are more costly and of uncertain value, particularly among women age 65 years or older. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An abstract of the article "Cost-Effectiveness of Digital Mammography Breast Cancer Screening," by A. N. Tosteson and colleagues is presented.

Importance: Cancer mortality has decreased over time, but the contributions of different interventions across the cancer control continuum to averting cancer deaths have not been systematically evaluated across major cancer sites., Objective: To quantify the contributions of prevention, screening (to remove precursors [interception] or early detection), and treatment to cumulative number of cancer deaths averted from 1975 to 2020 for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this model-based study using population-level cancer mortality data, outputs from published models developed by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network were extended to quantify cancer deaths averted through 2020. Model inputs were based on national data on risk factors, cancer incidence, cancer survival, and mortality due to other causes, and dissemination and effects of prevention, screening (for interception and early detection), and treatment. Simulated or modeled data using parameters derived from multiple birth cohorts of the US population were used., Interventions: Primary prevention via smoking reduction (lung), screening for interception (cervix and colorectal) or early detection (breast, cervix, colorectal, and prostate), and therapy (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The estimated cumulative number of cancer deaths averted with interventions vs no advances., Results: An estimated 5.94 million cancer deaths were averted for breast, cervical, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers combined. Cancer prevention and screening efforts averted 8 of 10 of these deaths (4.75 million averted deaths). The contribution of each intervention varied by cancer site. Screening accounted for 25% of breast cancer deaths averted. Averted cervical cancer deaths were nearly completely averted through screening and removal of cancer precursors as treatment advances were modest during the study period. Averted colorectal cancer deaths were averted because of screening and removal of precancerous polyps or early detection in 79% and treatment advances in 21%. Most lung cancer deaths were avoided by smoking reduction (98%) because screening uptake was low and treatment largely palliative before 2014. Screening contributed to 56% of averted prostate cancer deaths., Conclusions and Relevance: Over the past 45 years, cancer prevention and screening accounted for most cancer deaths averted for these causes; however, their contribution varied by cancer site according to these models using population-level cancer mortality data. Despite progress, efforts to reduce the US cancer burden will require increased dissemination of effective interventions and new technologies and discoveries.

Objective: Mammography and MRI screening typically occur in combination or in alternating sequence. We compared multimodality screening performance accounting for the relative timing of mammography and MRI and overlapping follow-up periods., Methods: We identified 8,260 screening mammograms performed 2005 to 2017 in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, paired with screening MRIs within ±90 days (combined screening) or 91 to 270 days (alternating screening). Performance for combined screening (cancer detection rate [CDR] per 1,000 examinations and sensitivity) was calculated with 1-year follow-up for each modality, and with a single follow-up period treating the two tests as a single test. Alternating screening performance was calculated with 1-year follow-up for each modality and also with follow-up ending at the next screen if within 1 year (truncated follow-up)., Results: For 3,810 combined screening pairs, CDR per 1,000 screens was 6.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.6-10.0) for mammography and 12.3 (95% CI: 9.3-16.4) for MRI as separate tests compared with 13.1 (95% CI: 10.0-17.3) as a single combined test. Sensitivity of each test was 48.1% (35.0%-61.5%) for mammography and 79.7% (95% CI: 67.7%-88.0%) for MRI compared with 96.2% (95% CI: 85.9%-99.0%) for combined screening. For 4,450 alternating screening pairs, mammography CDR per 1,000 screens changed from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.2-5.9) to zero with truncated follow-up; sensitivity was incalculable (denominator = 0). MRI CDR per 1,000 screens changed from 12.1 (95% CI 9.3-15.8) to 11.7 (95% CI: 8.9-15.3) with truncated follow-up; sensitivity changed from 75.0% (95% CI 63.8%-83.6%) to 86.7% (95% CI 75.5%-93.2%)., Discussion: Updating auditing approaches to account for combined and alternating screening sequencing and to address outcome attribution issues arising from overlapping follow-up periods can improve the accuracy of multimodality screening performance evaluation., (Copyright © 2024 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The extent and determinants of supplemental screening among women with dense breasts are unclear. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of 498,855 women aged 40-74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts who obtained 1,176,251 negative screening mammography examinations during 2011-2019 in the United States. Overall, 2.8% and 0.3% of mammograms had supplemental ultrasound or MRI within one year, respectively. Onsite availability was associated with ultrasound (odds ratio [OR]=4.35; 95%CI : 4.21-4.49) but not MRI (OR = 0.94; 95%CI : 0.85-1.04). Facility academic affiliation and for-profit status were inversely associated with supplemental ultrasound (OR = 0.53; 95%CI : 0.49-0.57 and OR = 0.83; 95%CI : 0.81-0.86, respectively) and positively associated with supplemental MRI (OR = 3.04; 95%CI : 2.86-3.46 and OR = 1.88; 95%CI : 1.66-2.12, respectively). Supplemental screening was more likely to occur after passage of state-specific density notification laws than before passage (OR = 3.56; 95%CI 3.30-3.84 and OR = 1.79; 95%CI 1.60-2.00, respectively). These results show that supplemental breast imaging utilization has been uncommon and was related to facility factors and density legislation., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Importance: Information on long-term benefits and harms of screening with digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) with or without supplemental breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is needed for clinical and policy discussions, particularly for patients with dense breasts., Objective: To project long-term population-based outcomes for breast cancer mammography screening strategies (DBT or digital mammography) with or without supplemental MRI by breast density., Design, Setting, and Participants: Collaborative modeling using 3 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) breast cancer simulation models informed by US Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium data. Simulated women born in 1980 with average breast cancer risk were included. Modeling analyses were conducted from January 2020 to December 2023., Intervention: Annual or biennial mammography screening with or without supplemental MRI by breast density starting at ages 40, 45, or 50 years through age 74 years., Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive recall and false-positive biopsy recommendations per 1000 simulated women followed-up from age 40 years to death summarized as means and ranges across models., Results: Biennial DBT screening for all simulated women started at age 50 vs 40 years averted 7.4 vs 8.5 breast cancer deaths, respectively, and led to 884 vs 1392 false-positive recalls and 151 vs 221 false-positive biopsy recommendations, respectively. Biennial digital mammography had similar deaths averted and slightly more false-positive test results than DBT screening. Adding MRI for women with extremely dense breasts to biennial DBT screening for women aged 50 to 74 years increased deaths averted (7.6 vs 7.4), false-positive recalls (919 vs 884), and false-positive biopsy recommendations (180 vs 151). Extending supplemental MRI to women with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts further increased deaths averted (8.0 vs 7.4), false-positive recalls (1088 vs 884), and false-positive biopsy recommendations (343 vs 151). The same strategy for women aged 40 to 74 years averted 9.5 deaths but led to 1850 false-positive recalls and 628 false-positive biopsy recommendations. Annual screening modestly increased estimated deaths averted but markedly increased estimated false-positive results., Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based comparative effectiveness analysis, supplemental MRI for women with dense breasts added to DBT screening led to greater benefits and increased harms. The balance of this trade-off for supplemental MRI use was more favorable when MRI was targeted to women with extremely dense breasts who comprise approximately 10% of the population.

Background It is unclear whether breast US screening outcomes for women with dense breasts vary with levels of breast cancer risk. Purpose To evaluate US screening outcomes for female patients with dense breasts and different estimated breast cancer risk levels. Materials and Methods This retrospective observational study used data from US screening examinations in female patients with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts conducted from January 2014 to October 2020 at 24 radiology facilities within three Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registries. The primary outcomes were the cancer detection rate, false-positive biopsy recommendation rate, and positive predictive value of biopsies performed (PPV3). Risk classification of participants was performed using established BCSC risk prediction models of estimated 6-year advanced breast cancer risk and 5-year invasive breast cancer risk. Differences in high- versus low- or average-risk categories were assessed using a generalized linear model. Results In total, 34 791 US screening examinations from 26 489 female patients (mean age at screening, 53.9 years ± 9.0 [SD]) were included. The overall cancer detection rate per 1000 examinations was 2.0 (95% CI: 1.6, 2.4) and was higher in patients with high versus low or average risk of 6-year advanced breast cancer (5.5 [95% CI: 3.5, 8.6] vs 1.3 [95% CI: 1.0, 1.8], respectively; P = .003). The overall false-positive biopsy recommendation rate per 1000 examinations was 29.6 (95% CI: 22.6, 38.6) and was higher in patients with high versus low or average 6-year advanced breast cancer risk (37.0 [95% CI: 28.2, 48.4] vs 28.1 [95% CI: 20.9, 37.8], respectively; P = .04). The overall PPV3 was 6.9% (67 of 975; 95% CI: 5.3, 8.9) and was higher in patients with high versus low or average 6-year advanced cancer risk (15.0% [15 of 100; 95% CI: 9.9, 22.2] vs 4.9% [30 of 615; 95% CI: 3.3, 7.2]; P = .01). Similar patterns in outcomes were observed by 5-year invasive breast cancer risk. Conclusion The cancer detection rate and PPV3 of supplemental US screening increased with the estimated risk of advanced and invasive breast cancer. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Helbich and Kapetas in this issue.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known., Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies., Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses., Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment., Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women., Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women., Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Background: Examining screening outcomes by breast density for breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with or without mammography could inform discussions about supplemental MRI in women with dense breasts., Methods: We evaluated 52 237 women aged 40-79 years who underwent 2611 screening MRIs alone and 6518 supplemental MRI plus mammography pairs propensity score-matched to 65 810 screening mammograms. Rates per 1000 examinations of interval, advanced, and screen-detected early stage invasive cancers and false-positive recall and biopsy recommendation were estimated by breast density (nondense = almost entirely fatty or scattered fibroglandular densities; dense = heterogeneously/extremely dense) adjusting for registry, examination year, age, race and ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and prior breast biopsy., Results: Screen-detected early stage cancer rates were statistically higher for MRI plus mammography vs mammography for nondense (9.3 vs 2.9; difference = 6.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5 to 10.3) and dense (7.5 vs 3.5; difference = 4.0, 95% CI = 1.4 to 6.7) breasts and for MRI vs MRI plus mammography for dense breasts (19.2 vs 7.5; difference = 11.7, 95% CI = 4.6 to 18.8). Interval rates were not statistically different for MRI plus mammography vs mammography for nondense (0.8 vs 0.5; difference = 0.4, 95% CI = -0.8 to 1.6) or dense breasts (1.5 vs 1.4; difference = 0.0, 95% CI = -1.2 to 1.3), nor were advanced cancer rates. Interval rates were not statistically different for MRI vs MRI plus mammography for nondense (2.6 vs 0.8; difference = 1.8 (95% CI = -2.0 to 5.5) or dense breasts (0.6 vs 1.5; difference = -0.9, 95% CI = -2.5 to 0.7), nor were advanced cancer rates. False-positive recall and biopsy recommendation rates were statistically higher for MRI groups than mammography alone., Conclusion: MRI screening with or without mammography increased rates of screen-detected early stage cancer and false-positives for women with dense breasts without a concomitant decrease in advanced or interval cancers., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Guidelines recommend shared decision-making (SDM) around mammography screening for women ≥ 75 years old., Objective: To use microsimulation modeling to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of screening women aged 75, 80, and 85 years based on their individual risk factors (family history, breast density, prior biopsy) and comorbidity level to support SDM in clinical practice., Design, Setting, and Participants: We adapted two established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models to evaluate the remaining lifetime benefits and harms of screening U.S. women born in 1940, at decision ages 75, 80, and 85 years considering their individual risk factors and comorbidity levels. Results were summarized for average- and higher-risk women (defined as having breast cancer family history, heterogeneously dense breasts, and no prior biopsy, 5% of the population)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Remaining lifetime breast cancers detected, deaths (breast cancer/other causes), false positives, and overdiagnoses for average- and higher-risk women by age and comorbidity level for screening (one or five screens) vs. no screening per 1000 women., Results: Compared to stopping, one additional screen at 75 years old resulted in six and eight more breast cancers detected (10% overdiagnoses), one and two fewer breast cancer deaths, and 52 and 59 false positives per 1000 average- and higher-risk women without comorbidities, respectively. Five additional screens over 10 years led to 23 and 31 additional breast cancer cases (29-31% overdiagnoses), four and 15 breast cancer deaths avoided, and 238 and 268 false positives per 1000 average- and higher-risk screened women without comorbidities, respectively. Screening women at older ages (80 and 85 years old) and high comorbidity levels led to fewer breast cancer deaths and a higher percentage of overdiagnoses., Conclusions: Simulation models show that continuing screening in women ≥ 75 years old results in fewer breast cancer deaths but more false positive tests and overdiagnoses. Together, clinicians and 75 + women may use model output to weigh the benefits and harms of continued screening., (© 2023. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear., Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality., Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated., Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer., Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence., Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years)., Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

Background: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence., Methods: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy., Results: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness., Conclusion: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To evaluate the frequency of medical imaging or estimated associated radiation exposure in children with Down syndrome., Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 4,348,226 children enrolled in six U.S. integrated healthcare systems from 1996-2016, 3,095 of whom were diagnosed with Down syndrome. We calculated imaging rates per 100 person years and associated red bone marrow dose (mGy). Relative rates (RR) of imaging in children with versus without Down syndrome were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression., Results: Compared to other children, children with Down syndrome received imaging using ionizing radiation at 9.5 times (95% confidence interval[CI] = 8.2-10.9) the rate when age <1 year and 2.3 times (95% CI = 2.0-2.5) between ages 1-18 years. Imaging rates by modality in children <1 year with Down syndrome compared with other children were: computed tomography (6.6 vs. 2.0, RR = 3.1[95%CI = 1.8-5.1]), fluoroscopy (37.1 vs. 3.1, RR 11.9[95%CI 9.5-14.8]), angiography (7.6 vs. 0.2, RR = 35.8[95%CI = 20.6-62.2]), nuclear medicine (6.0 vs. 0.6, RR = 8.2[95% CI = 5.3-12.7]), radiography (419.7 vs. 36.9, RR = 11.3[95%CI = 10.0-12.9], magnetic resonance imaging(7.3 vs. 1.5, RR = 4.2[95% CI = 3.1-5.8]), and ultrasound (231.2 vs. 16.4, RR = 12.6[95% CI = 9.9-15.9]). Mean cumulative red bone marrow dose from imaging over a mean of 4.2 years was 2-fold higher in children with Down syndrome compared with other children (4.7 vs. 1.9mGy)., Conclusions: Children with Down syndrome experienced more medical imaging and higher radiation exposure than other children, especially at young ages when they are more vulnerable to radiation. Clinicians should consider incorporating strategic management decisions when imaging this high-risk population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Marlow et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: There are no consensus guidelines for supplemental breast cancer screening with whole-breast ultrasound. However, criteria for women at high risk of mammography screening failures (interval invasive cancer or advanced cancer) have been identified. Mammography screening failure risk was evaluated among women undergoing supplemental ultrasound screening in clinical practice compared with women undergoing mammography alone., Methods: A total of 38,166 screening ultrasounds and 825,360 screening mammograms without supplemental screening were identified during 2014-2020 within three Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registries. Risk of interval invasive cancer and advanced cancer were determined using BCSC prediction models. High interval invasive breast cancer risk was defined as heterogeneously dense breasts and BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk ≥2.5% or extremely dense breasts and BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk ≥1.67%. Intermediate/high advanced cancer risk was defined as BCSC 6-year advanced breast cancer risk ≥0.38%., Results: A total of 95.3% of 38,166 ultrasounds were among women with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts, compared with 41.8% of 825,360 screening mammograms without supplemental screening (p < .0001). Among women with dense breasts, high interval invasive breast cancer risk was prevalent in 23.7% of screening ultrasounds compared with 18.5% of screening mammograms without supplemental imaging (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.30-1.39); intermediate/high advanced cancer risk was prevalent in 32.0% of screening ultrasounds versus 30.5% of screening mammograms without supplemental screening (adjusted odds ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.89-0.94)., Conclusions: Ultrasound screening was highly targeted to women with dense breasts, but only a modest proportion were at high mammography screening failure risk. A clinically significant proportion of women undergoing mammography screening alone were at high mammography screening failure risk., (© 2023 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Cancer Society.)

Objective: When multiple surveillance mammograms are performed within an annual interval, the current guidance for one-year follow-up to determine breast cancer status results in shared follow-up periods in which a single breast cancer diagnosis can be attributed to multiple preceding examinations, posing a challenge for standardized performance assessment. We assessed the impact of using follow-up periods that eliminate the artifactual inflation of second breast cancer diagnoses., Materials and Methods: We evaluated surveillance mammograms from 2007-2016 in women with treated breast cancer linked with tumor registry and pathology outcomes. Second breast cancers included ductal carcinoma in situ or invasive breast cancer diagnosed during one-year follow-up. The cancer detection rate, interval cancer rate, sensitivity, and specificity were compared using different follow-up periods: standard one-year follow-up per the American College of Radiology versus follow-up that was shortened at the next surveillance mammogram if less than one year (truncated follow-up). Performance measures were calculated overall and by indication (screening, evaluation for breast problem, and short interval follow-up)., Results: Of 117971 surveillance mammograms, 20% (n = 23533) were followed by another surveillance mammogram within one year. Standard follow-up identified 1597 mammograms that were associated with second breast cancers. With truncated follow-up, the breast cancer status of 179 mammograms (11.2%) was revised, resulting in 1418 mammograms associated with unique second breast cancers. The interval cancer rate decreased with truncated versus standard follow-up (3.6 versus 4.9 per 1000 mammograms, respectively), with a difference (95% confidence interval [CI]) of -1.3 (-1.6, -1.1). The overall sensitivity increased to 70.4% from 63.7%, for the truncated versus standard follow-up, with a difference (95% CI) of 6.6% (5.6%, 7.7%). The specificity remained stable at 98.1%., Conclusion: Truncated follow-up, if less than one year to the next surveillance mammogram, enabled second breast cancers to be associated with a single preceding mammogram and resulted in more accurate estimates of diagnostic performance for national benchmarks., Competing Interests: The authors have no potential conflicts of interest related to this study to disclose. Potential conflicts of interest unrelated to this study: Janie M. Lee grant from GE Healthcare; Jennifer M. Specht payment to author for consultancies from Daiichii Sankyo, GE Healthcare, GSK-Glaxosmithkline; grants from Merck, Cascadian Therapeutics, Pfizer, Genentech, Xencor, Abbvie, Seattle Genetics, Celcuity Inc; Karla Kerlikowske unpaid consultant to Grail for STRIVE study; Diana L. Miglioretti royalties from Elsevier; Kathryn P. Lowry grants from GE Healthcare; and Diana S. M. Buist payment for participation in review activities from Women Informed to Screen Depending on Measures of Risk Data Safety and Monitoring Board. All other authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Korean Society of Radiology.)

Purpose: Population newborn genetic screening for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is feasible, however its benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness are uncertain., Methods: We developed a microsimulation model to simulate a US birth cohort of 3.7 million newborns. Those identified with pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants associated with increased risk of HCM underwent surveillance and recommended treatment, whereas in usual care, individuals with family histories of HCM underwent surveillance., Results: In a cohort of 3.7 million newborns, newborn genetic screening would reduce HCM-related deaths through age 20 years by 44 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 10-103) however increase the numbers of children undergoing surveillance by 8127 (95% UI = 6308-9664). Compared with usual care, newborn genetic screening costs $267,000 per life year saved (95% UI, $106,000 to $919,000 per life year saved)., Conclusion: Newborn genetic screening for HCM could prevent deaths but at a high cost and would require many healthy children to undergo surveillance. This study shows how modeling can provide insights into the tradeoffs between benefits and costs that will need to be considered as newborn genetic screening is more widely adopted., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest K.D.C. received a grant from Sanford Health outside the submitted work. C.Y.L. undertook contract work with Illumina Inc outside the submitted work. All other authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Cancer screening has long been considered a worthy public health investment. Health economics offers the theoretical foundation and research methodology to understand the demand- and supply-side factors associated with screening and evaluate screening-related policies and interventions. This article provides an overview of health economic theories and methods related to cancer screening and discusses opportunities for future research. We review 2 academic disciplines most relevant to health economics research in cancer screening: applied microeconomics and decision science. We consider 3 emerging topics: cancer screening policies in national as well as local contexts, "choosing wisely" screening practices, and targeted screening efforts for vulnerable subpopulations. We also discuss the strengths and weaknesses of available data sources and opportunities for methodological research and training. Recommendations to strengthen research infrastructure include developing novel data linkage strategies, increasing access to electronic health records, establishing curriculum and training programs, promoting multidisciplinary collaborations, and enhancing research funding opportunities., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Identification of children and infants with Li-Fraumeni syndrome prompts tumor surveillance and allows potential early cancer detection. We assessed the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of population-wide newborn screening for TP53 variants (TP53-NBS)., Methods: We simulated the impact of TP53-NBS using data regarding TP53-associated pediatric cancers and pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) TP53 variants from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; ClinVar and gnomAD; and clinical studies. We simulated an annual US birth cohort under usual care and TP53-NBS and estimated clinical benefits, life-years, and costs associated with usual care and TP53-NBS., Results: Under usual care, of 4 million newborns, 608 (uncertainty interval [UI] = 581-636) individuals would develop TP53-associated cancers before age 20 years. Under TP53-NBS, 894 individuals would have P/LP TP53 variants detected. These individuals would undergo routine surveillance after detection of P/LP TP53 variants decreasing the number of cancer-related deaths by 7.2% (UI = 4.0%-12.1%) overall via early malignancy detection. Compared with usual care, TP53-NBS had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $106 009 per life-year gained. Probabilistic analysis estimated a 40% probability that TP53-NBS would be cost-effective given a $100 000 per life-year gained willingness-to-pay threshold. Using this threshold, a value of information analysis found that additional research on the prevalence of TP53 variants among rhabdomyosarcoma cases would resolve most of the decision uncertainty, resulting in an expected benefit of 349 life-years gained (or $36.6 million)., Conclusions: We found that TP53-NBS could be cost-effective; however, our findings suggest that further research is needed to reduce the uncertainty in the potential health outcomes and costs associated with TP53-NBS., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background The COVID-19 pandemic reduced mammography use, potentially delaying breast cancer diagnoses. Purpose To examine breast biopsy recommendations and breast cancers diagnosed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by mode of detection (screen detected vs symptomatic) and women's characteristics. Materials and Methods In this secondary analysis of prospectively collected data, monthly breast biopsy recommendations after mammography, US, or both with subsequent biopsy performed were examined from 66 facilities of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium between January 2019 and September 2020. The number of monthly and cumulative biopsies recommended and performed and the number of subsequent cancers diagnosed during the pandemic period (March 2020 to September 2020) were compared with data from the prepandemic period using Wald χ 2 tests. Analyses were stratified by mode of detection and race or ethnicity. Results From January 2019 to September 2020, 17 728 biopsies were recommended and performed, with 6009 cancers diagnosed. From March to September 2020, there were substantially fewer breast biopsy recommendations with cancer diagnoses when compared with the same period in 2019 (1650 recommendations in 2020 vs 2171 recommendations in 2019 [24% fewer], P < .001), predominantly due to fewer screen-detected cancers (722 cancers in 2020 vs 1169 cancers in 2019 [38% fewer], P < .001) versus symptomatic cancers (895 cancers in 2020 vs 965 cancers in 2019 [7% fewer], P = .27). The decrease in cancer diagnoses was largest in Asian (67 diagnoses in 2020 vs 142 diagnoses in 2019 [53% fewer], P = .06) and Hispanic (82 diagnoses in 2020 vs 145 diagnoses in 2019 [43% fewer], P = .13) women, followed by Black women (210 diagnoses in 2020 vs 287 diagnoses in 2019 [27% fewer], P = .21). The decrease was smallest in non-Hispanic White women (1128 diagnoses in 2020 vs 1357 diagnoses in 2019 [17% fewer], P = .09). Conclusion There were substantially fewer breast biopsies with cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic from March to September 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, with Asian and Hispanic women experiencing the largest declines, followed by Black women. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Heller in this issue.

Purpose: The Risk of Pediatric and Adolescent Cancer Associated with Medical Imaging (RIC) Study is quantifying the association between cumulative radiation exposure from fetal and/or childhood medical imaging and subsequent cancer risk. This manuscript describes the study cohorts and research methods., Methods: The RIC Study is a longitudinal study of children in two retrospective cohorts from 6 U.S. healthcare systems and from Ontario, Canada over the period 1995-2017. The fetal-exposure cohort includes children whose mothers were enrolled in the healthcare system during their entire pregnancy and followed to age 20. The childhood-exposure cohort includes children born into the system and followed while continuously enrolled. Imaging utilization was determined using administrative data. Computed tomography (CT) parameters were collected to estimate individualized patient organ dosimetry. Organ dose libraries for average exposures were constructed for radiography, fluoroscopy, and angiography, while diagnostic radiopharmaceutical biokinetic models were applied to estimate organ doses received in nuclear medicine procedures. Cancers were ascertained from local and state/provincial cancer registry linkages., Results: The fetal-exposure cohort includes 3,474,000 children among whom 6,606 cancers (2394 leukemias) were diagnosed over 37,659,582 person-years; 0.5% had in utero exposure to CT, 4.0% radiography, 0.5% fluoroscopy, 0.04% angiography, 0.2% nuclear medicine. The childhood-exposure cohort includes 3,724,632 children in whom 6,358 cancers (2,372 leukemias) were diagnosed over 36,190,027 person-years; 5.9% were exposed to CT, 61.1% radiography, 6.0% fluoroscopy, 0.4% angiography, 1.5% nuclear medicine., Conclusion: The RIC Study is poised to be the largest study addressing risk of childhood and adolescent cancer associated with ionizing radiation from medical imaging, estimated with individualized patient organ dosimetry., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Importance: Screening mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are recommended for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. However, there are few data to guide screening regimens for these women., Objective: To estimate the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening strategies using mammography and MRI at various start ages for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants., Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative modeling analysis used 2 established breast cancer microsimulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to evaluate different screening strategies. Age-specific breast cancer risks were estimated using aggregated data from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) Consortium for 32 247 cases and 32 544 controls in 12 population-based studies. Data on screening performance for mammography and MRI were estimated from published literature. The models simulated US women with ATM, CHEK2, or PALB2 pathogenic variants born in 1985., Interventions: Screening strategies with combinations of annual mammography alone and with MRI starting at age 25, 30, 35, or 40 years until age 74 years., Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime breast cancer mortality reduction, life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted, total screening examinations, false-positive screenings, and benign biopsies per 1000 women screened. Results are reported as model mean values and ranges., Results: The mean model-estimated lifetime breast cancer risk was 20.9% (18.1%-23.7%) for women with ATM pathogenic variants, 27.6% (23.4%-31.7%) for women with CHEK2 pathogenic variants, and 39.5% (35.6%-43.3%) for women with PALB2 pathogenic variants. Across pathogenic variants, annual mammography alone from 40 to 74 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 36.4% (34.6%-38.2%) to 38.5% (37.8%-39.2%) compared with no screening. Screening with annual MRI starting at 35 years followed by annual mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 54.4% (54.2%-54.7%) to 57.6% (57.2%-58.0%), with 4661 (4635-4688) to 5001 (4979-5023) false-positive screenings and 1280 (1272-1287) to 1368 (1362-1374) benign biopsies per 1000 women. Annual MRI starting at 30 years followed by mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce mortality by 55.4% (55.3%-55.4%) to 59.5% (58.5%-60.4%), with 5075 (5057-5093) to 5415 (5393-5437) false-positive screenings and 1439 (1429-1449) to 1528 (1517-1538) benign biopsies per 1000 women. When starting MRI at 30 years, initiating annual mammography starting at 30 vs 40 years did not meaningfully reduce mean mortality rates (0.1% [0.1%-0.2%] to 0.3% [0.2%-0.3%]) but was estimated to add 649 (602-695) to 650 (603-696) false-positive screenings and 58 (41-76) to 59 (41-76) benign biopsies per 1000 women., Conclusions and Relevance: This analysis suggests that annual MRI screening starting at 30 to 35 years followed by annual MRI and mammography at 40 years may reduce breast cancer mortality by more than 50% for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. In the setting of MRI screening, mammography prior to 40 years may offer little additional benefit.

Background: Annual mammography is recommended for breast cancer survivors; however, population-level temporal trends in surveillance mammography participation have not been described. Our objective was to characterize trends in annual surveillance mammography participation among women with a personal history of breast cancer over a 13-year period., Methods: We examined annual surveillance mammography participation from 2004 to 2016 in a nationwide sample of commercially insured women with prior breast cancer. Rates were stratified by age group (40-49 vs 50-64 years), visit with a surgical/oncology specialist or primary care provider within the prior year, and sociodemographic characteristics. Joinpoint models were used to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in participation during the study period., Results: Among 141,672 women, mammography rates declined from 74.1% in 2004 to 67.1% in 2016. Rates were stable from 2004 to 2009 (APC, 0.1%; 95% CI, -0.5% to 0.8%) but declined 1.5% annually from 2009 to 2016 (95% CI, -1.9% to -1.1%). For women aged 40 to 49 years, rates declined 2.8% annually (95% CI, -3.4% to -2.1%) after 2009 versus 1.4% annually in women aged 50 to 64 years (95% CI, -1.9% to -1.0%). Similar trends were observed in women who had seen a surgeon/oncologist (APC, -1.7%; 95% CI, -2.1% to -1.4%) or a primary care provider (APC, -1.6%; 95% CI, -2.1% to -1.2%) in the prior year., Conclusions: Surveillance mammography participation among breast cancer survivors declined from 2009 to 2016, most notably among women aged 40 to 49 years. These findings highlight a need for focused efforts to improve adherence to surveillance and prevent delays in detection of breast cancer recurrence and second cancers.

Background: Early initiation of breast cancer screening is recommended for high-risk women, including survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation. Recent studies suggest that female survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma treated without chest radiation are also at elevated early onset breast cancer risk. However, the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of early breast cancer screening among these women are uncertain., Methods: Using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we adapted 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation models to reflect the elevated risks of breast cancer and competing mortality among leukemia and sarcoma survivors. Costs and utility weights were based on published studies and databases. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsies, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios., Results: In the absence of screening, the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer among survivors was 6.8% to 7.0% across models. Early initiation of annual mammography with breast magnetic resonance imaging screening between ages 25 and 40 years would avert 52.6% to 64.3% of breast cancer deaths. When costs and quality-of-life impacts were considered, screening starting at age 40 years was the only strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained cost-effectiveness threshold ($27 680 to $44 380 per QALY gained across models)., Conclusions: Among survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma, early initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years may reduce breast cancer deaths by half and is cost-effective. These findings could help inform screening guidelines for survivors treated without chest radiation., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: To facilitate community-based epidemiologic studies of pediatric leukemia, we validated use of ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes to identify pediatric leukemia cases in electronic medical records of six U.S. integrated health plans from 1996-2015 and evaluated the additional contributions of procedure codes for diagnosis/treatment., Procedures: Subjects (N = 408) were children and adolescents born in the health systems and enrolled for at least 120 days after the date of the first leukemia ICD-9-CM code or tumor registry diagnosis. The gold standard was the health system tumor registry and/or medical record review. We calculated positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity by number of ICD-9-CM codes received in the 120-day period following and including the first code. We evaluated whether adding chemotherapy and/or bone marrow biopsy/aspiration procedure codes improved PPV and/or sensitivity., Results: Requiring receipt of one or more codes resulted in 99% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI]: 98-100%) but poor PPV (70%; 95% CI: 66-75%). Receipt of two or more codes improved PPV to 90% (95% CI: 86-93%) with 96% sensitivity (95% CI: 93-98%). Requiring at least four codes maximized PPV (95%; 95% CI: 92-98%) without sacrificing sensitivity (93%; 95% CI: 89-95%). Across health plans, PPV for four codes ranged from 84-100% and sensitivity ranged from 83-95%. Including at least one code for a bone marrow procedure or chemotherapy treatment had minimal impact on PPV or sensitivity., Conclusions: The use of diagnosis codes from the electronic health record has high PPV and sensitivity for identifying leukemia in children and adolescents if more than one code is required., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted breast cancer control through short-term declines in screening and delays in diagnosis and treatments. We projected the impact of COVID-19 on future breast cancer mortality between 2020 and 2030., Methods: Three established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models modeled reductions in mammography screening use, delays in symptomatic cancer diagnosis, and reduced use of chemotherapy for women with early-stage disease for the first 6 months of the pandemic with return to prepandemic patterns after that time. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the effect of key model parameters, including the duration of the pandemic impact., Results: By 2030, the models project 950 (model range = 860-1297) cumulative excess breast cancer deaths related to reduced screening, 1314 (model range = 266-1325) associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic cases, and 151 (model range = 146-207) associated with reduced chemotherapy use in women with hormone positive, early-stage cancer. Jointly, 2487 (model range = 1713-2575) excess breast cancer deaths were estimated, representing a 0.52% (model range = 0.36%-0.56%) cumulative increase over breast cancer deaths expected by 2030 in the absence of the pandemic's disruptions. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the breast cancer mortality impact would be approximately double if the modeled pandemic effects on screening, symptomatic diagnosis, and chemotherapy extended for 12 months., Conclusions: Initial pandemic-related disruptions in breast cancer care will have a small long-term cumulative impact on breast cancer mortality. Continued efforts to ensure prompt return to screening and minimize delays in evaluation of symptomatic women can largely mitigate the effects of the initial pandemic-associated disruptions., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a near-total cessation of mammography services in the United States in mid-March 2020. It is unclear if screening and diagnostic mammography volumes have recovered to prepandemic levels and whether use has varied by women's characteristics., Methods: We collected data on 461 083 screening mammograms and 112 207 diagnostic mammograms conducted during January 2019 through July 2020 at 62 radiology facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. We compared monthly screening and diagnostic mammography volumes before and during the pandemic stratified by age, race and ethnicity, breast density, and family history of breast cancer., Results: Screening and diagnostic mammography volumes in April 2020 were 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.5% to 2.4%) and 21.4% (95% CI = 18.7% to 24.4%) of the April 2019 prepandemic volumes, respectively, but by July 2020 had rebounded to 89.7% (95% CI = 79.6% to 101.1%) and 101.6% (95% CI = 93.8% to 110.1%) of the July 2019 prepandemic volumes, respectively. The year-to-date cumulative volume of screening and diagnostic mammograms performed through July 2020 was 66.2% (95% CI = 60.3% to 72.6%) and 79.9% (95% CI = 75.4% to 84.6%), respectively, of year-to-date volume through July 2019. Screening mammography rebound was similar across age groups and by family history of breast cancer. Monthly screening mammography volume in July 2020 for Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian women reached 96.7% (95% CI = 88.1% to 106.1%), 92.9% (95% CI = 82.9% to 104.0%), 72.7% (95% CI = 56.5% to 93.6%), and 51.3% (95% CI = 39.7% to 66.2%) of the July 2019 prepandemic volume, respectively., Conclusions: Despite a strong overall rebound in mammography volume by July 2020, the rebound lagged among Asian and Hispanic women, and a substantial cumulative deficit in missed mammograms accumulated, which may have important health consequences., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: A paucity of research addresses breast cancer screening strategies for women at lower-than-average breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to examine screening harms and benefits among women aged 50-74 years at lower-than-average breast cancer risk by breast density., Methods: Three well-established, validated Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network models were used to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of different screening scenarios, varying by screening interval (biennial, triennial). Breast cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis were assessed by relative risk (RR) level (0.6, 0.7, 0.85, 1 [average risk]) and breast density category, for US women born in 1970., Results: Screening benefits decreased proportionally with decreasing risk and with lower breast density. False-positives, unnecessary biopsies, and the percentage overdiagnosis also varied substantially by breast density category; false-positives and unnecessary biopsies were highest in the heterogeneously dense category. For women with fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density and a relative risk of no more than 0.85, the additional deaths averted and life-years gained were small with biennial vs triennial screening. For these groups, undergoing 4 additional screens (screening biennially [13 screens] vs triennially [9 screens]) averted no more than 1 additional breast cancer death and gained no more than 16 life-years and no more than 10 quality-adjusted life-years per 1000 women but resulted in up to 232 more false-positives per 1000 women., Conclusion: Triennial screening from age 50 to 74 years may be a reasonable screening strategy for women with lower-than-average breast cancer risk and fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)

Background Since 2007, digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) replaced screen-film mammography. Whether these technologic advances have improved diagnostic performance has, to the knowledge of the authors, not yet been established. Purpose To evaluate the performance and outcomes of surveillance mammography (digital mammography and DBT) performed from 2007 to 2016 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and compare with data from 1996 to 2007 and the performance of digital mammography screening benchmarks. Materials and Methods In this observational cohort study, five Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium registries provided prospectively collected mammography data linked with tumor registry and pathologic outcomes. This study identified asymptomatic women with American Joint Committee on Cancer anatomic stages 0-III primary breast cancer who underwent surveillance mammography from 2007 to 2016. The primary outcome was a second breast cancer diagnosis within 1 year of mammography. Performance measures included the recall rate, cancer detection rate, interval cancer rate, positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation, sensitivity, and specificity. Results Among 32 331 women who underwent 117 971 surveillance mammographic examinations (112 269 digital mammographic examinations and 5702 DBT examinations), the mean age at initial diagnosis was 59 years ± 12 (standard deviation). Of 1418 second breast cancers diagnosed, 998 were surveillance-detected cancers and 420 were interval cancers. The recall rate was 8.8% (10 365 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.6%, 9.0%), the cancer detection rate was 8.5 per 1000 examinations (998 of 117 971; 95% CI: 8.0, 9.0), the interval cancer rate was 3.6 per 1000 examinations (420 of 117 971; 95% CI: 3.2, 3.9), the positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation was 31.0% (998 of 3220; 95% CI: 29.4%, 32.7%), the sensitivity was 70.4% (998 of 1418; 95% CI: 67.9%, 72.7%), and the specificity was 98.1% (114 331 of 116 553; 95% CI: 98.0%, 98.2%). Compared with previously published studies, interval cancer rate was comparable with rates from 1996 to 2007 in women with a personal history of breast cancer and was higher than the published digital mammography screening benchmarks. Conclusion In transitioning from screen-film to digital mammography and digital breast tomosynthesis, surveillance mammography performance demonstrated minimal improvement over time and remained inferior to the performance of screening mammography benchmarks. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issue.

Objective: To assess leukemia risks among children with Down syndrome in a large, contemporary cohort., Study Design: Retrospective cohort study including 3 905 399 children born 1996-2016 in 7 US healthcare systems or Ontario, Canada, and followed from birth to cancer diagnosis, death, age 15 years, disenrollment, or December 30, 2016. Down syndrome was identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions, diagnosis codes. Cancer diagnoses were identified through linkages to tumor registries. Incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) of leukemia were estimated for children with Down syndrome and other children adjusting for health system, child's age at diagnosis, birth year, and sex., Results: Leukemia was diagnosed in 124 of 4401 children with Down syndrome and 1941 of 3 900 998 other children. In children with Down syndrome, the cumulative incidence of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was 1405/100 000 (95% CI 1076-1806) at age 4 years and unchanged at age 14 years. The cumulative incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia in children with Down syndrome was 1059/100 000 (95% CI 755-1451) at age 4 and 1714/100 000 (95% CI 1264-2276) at age 14 years. Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of AML before age 5 years than other children (HR 399, 95% CI 281-566). Largest HRs were for megakaryoblastic leukemia before age 5 years (HR 1500, 95% CI 555-4070). Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of acute lymphoid leukemia than other children regardless of age (<5 years: HR 28, 95% CI 20-40, ≥5 years HR 21, 95% CI 12-38)., Conclusions: Down syndrome remains a strong risk factor for childhood leukemia, and associations with AML are stronger than previously reported., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Genetic testing for pediatric cancer predisposition syndromes (CPS) could augment newborn screening programs, but with uncertain benefits and costs., Methods: We developed a simulation model to evaluate universal screening for a CPS panel. Cohorts of US newborns were simulated under universal screening versus usual care. Using data from clinical studies, ClinVar, and gnomAD, the presence of pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in RET, RB1, TP53, DICER1, SUFU, PTCH1, SMARCB1, WT1, APC, ALK, and PHOX2B were assigned at birth. Newborns with identified variants underwent guideline surveillance. Survival benefit was modeled via reductions in advanced disease, cancer deaths, and treatment-related late mortality, assuming 100% adherence., Results: Among 3.7 million newborns, under usual care, 1,803 developed a CPS malignancy before age 20. With universal screening, 13.3% were identified at birth as at-risk due to P/LP variant detection and underwent surveillance, resulting in a 53.5% decrease in cancer deaths in P/LP heterozygotes and a 7.8% decrease among the entire cohort before age 20. Given a test cost of $55, universal screening cost $244,860 per life-year gained; with a $20 test, the cost fell to $99,430 per life-year gained., Conclusion: Population-based genetic testing of newborns may reduce mortality associated with pediatric cancers and could be cost-effective as sequencing costs decline.

Background: Children with central nervous system (CNS) tumors undergo frequent imaging for diagnosis and follow-up, but few studies have characterized longitudinal imaging patterns. We described medical imaging in children before and after malignant CNS tumor diagnosis., Procedure: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of children aged 0-20 years diagnosed with CNS tumors between 1996-2016 at six U.S. integrated healthcare systems and Ontario, Canada. We collected computed topography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), radiography, ultrasound, nuclear medicine examinations from 12 months before through 10 years after CNS diagnosis censoring six months before death or a subsequent cancer diagnosis, disenrollment from the health system, age 21 years, or December 31, 2016. We calculated imaging rates per child per month stratified by modality, country, diagnosis age, calendar year, time since diagnosis, and tumor grade., Results: We observed 1,879 children with median four years follow-up post-diagnosis in the U.S. and seven years in Ontario, Canada. During the diagnosis period (±15 days of diagnosis), children averaged 1.10 CTs (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.13) and 2.14 MRIs (95%CI 2.12-2.16) in the U.S., and 1.67 CTs (95%CI 1.65-1.68) and 1.86 MRIs (95%CI 1.85-1.88) in Ontario. Within one year after diagnosis, 19% of children had ≥5 CTs and 45% had ≥5 MRIs. By nine years after diagnosis, children averaged one MRI and one radiograph per year with little use of other imaging modalities., Conclusions: MRI and CT are commonly used for CNS tumor diagnosis, whereas MRI is the primary modality used during surveillance of children with CNS tumors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Supplemental breast cancer screening with breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for women at high risk of breast cancer. To the authors' knowledge, recent national trends in breast MRI use are unknown., Methods: The authors used claims data from a large national insurer to calculate screening breast MRI rates from 2006 to 2016 in a US cohort of 10 million women aged 20 to 64 years. Use was stratified by subgroups of women with a BRCA mutation, family history of breast cancer, and prior breast cancer history and stratified by age. Joinpoint regression evaluated annual changes in trends., Results: The total sample included 37,447 screening breast MRI examinations in 25,617 women. Overall screening breast MRI rates were low and increased from 2.9 to 12.1 examinations per 10,000 women from 2006 to 2016. MRI use in women with a BRCA mutation increased by 21% on average annually from 210.8 per 10,000 women to 1562.0 per 10,000 women from 2006 to 2016. By 2016, women aged 50 to 64 years who had a BRCA mutation had the highest use of breast MRI (1669.6 MRI examinations per 10,000 women) compared with younger women (1198.4 MRI examinations per 10,000 women, 1519.1 MRI examinations per 10,000 women, and 1567.2 MRI examinations per 10,000 women, respectively, among women aged 20-29 years, 30-39 years, and 40-49 years). Women with a BRCA mutation comprised <1% of the current study population but received approximately 9% of screening breast MRI examinations. Breast MRI rates among women with a family history of breast cancer or prior breast cancer history initially increased from 2006 to 2008, but then stabilized or decreased., Conclusions: The increases in breast MRI use observed in the current study have indicated improvements in concordance with breast imaging guidelines. However, women with BRCA mutations remain underscreened, particularly younger women, thereby identifying a clear gap with which to enhance access., (© 2020 American Cancer Society.)

Importance: In response to calls to reduce unnecessary diagnostic testing with computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA) for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE), there have been growing efforts to create and implement decision rules for PE testing. It is unclear if the use of advanced imaging tests for PE has diminished over time., Objective: To assess the use of advanced imaging tests, including chest computed tomography (CT) (ie, all chest CT except for CTPA), CTPA, and ventilation-perfusion (V/Q) scan, for PE from 2004 to 2016., Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study of adults by age group (18-64 years and ≥65 years) enrolled in 7 US integrated and mixed-model health care systems. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify years with statistically significant changes in imaging rates and to calculate average annual percentage change (growth) from 2004 to 2007, 2008 to 2011, and 2012 to 2016. Analyses were conducted between June 11, 2019, and March 18, 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of chest CT, CTPA, and V/Q scan by year and age, as well as annual change in rates over time., Results: Overall, 3.6 to 4.8 million enrollees were included each year of the study, for a total of 52 343 517 person-years of follow-up data. Adults aged 18 to 64 years accounted for 42 223 712 person-years (80.7%) and those 65 years or older accounted for 10 119 805 person-years (19.3%). Female enrollees accounted for 27 712 571 person-years (52.9%). From 2004 and 2016, chest CT use increased by 66.3% (average annual growth, 4.4% per year), CTPA use increased by 450.0% (average annual growth, 16.3% per year), and V/Q scan use decreased by 47.1% (decreasing by 4.9% per year). The use of CTPA increased most rapidly from 2004 to 2006 (44.6% in those aged 18-64 years and 43.9% in those ≥65 years), with ongoing rapid growth from 2006 to 2010 (annual growth, 19.8% in those aged 18-64 years and 18.3% in those ≥65 years) and persistent but slower growth in the most recent years (annual growth, 4.3% in those aged 18-64 years and 3.0% in those ≥65 years from 2010 to 2016). The use of V/Q scanning decreased steadily since 2004., Conclusions and Relevance: From 2004 to 2016, rates of chest CT and CTPA for suspected PE continued to increase among adults but at a slower pace in more contemporary years. Efforts to combat overuse have not been completely successful as reflected by ongoing growth, rather than decline, of chest CT use. Whether the observed imaging use was appropriate or was associated with improved patient outcomes is unknown.

Background: Surveillance with annual mammography and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for female survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation, yet benefits, harms, and costs are uncertain., Objective: To compare the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening strategies in childhood cancer survivors., Design: Collaborative simulation modeling using 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models., Data Sources: Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and published data., Target Population: Women aged 20 years with a history of chest radiotherapy., Time Horizon: Lifetime., Perspective: Payer., Intervention: Annual MRI with or without mammography, starting at age 25, 30, or 35 years., Outcome Measures: Breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsy results, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs)., Results of Base-Case Analysis: Lifetime breast cancer mortality risk without screening was 10% to 11% across models. Compared with no screening, starting at age 25 years, annual mammography with MRI averted the most deaths (56% to 71%) and annual MRI (without mammography) averted 56% to 62%. Both strategies had the most screening tests, false-positive screening results, and benign biopsy results. For an ICER threshold of less than $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, screening beginning at age 30 years was preferred., Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Assuming lower screening performance, the benefit of adding mammography to MRI increased in both models, although the conclusions about preferred starting age remained unchanged., Limitation: Elevated breast cancer risk was based on survivors diagnosed with childhood cancer between 1970 and 1986., Conclusion: Early initiation (at ages 25 to 30 years) of annual breast cancer screening with MRI, with or without mammography, might reduce breast cancer mortality by half or more in survivors of childhood cancer., Primary Funding Source: American Cancer Society and National Institutes of Health.

Background: Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is increasingly being used for routine breast cancer screening. We projected the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of DBT compared to conventional digital mammography (DM) for breast cancer screening in the United States., Methods: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models simulated US women ages 40 years and older undergoing breast cancer screening with either DBT or DM starting in 2011 and continuing for the lifetime of the cohort. Screening performance estimates were based on observational data; in an alternative scenario, we assumed 4% higher sensitivity for DBT. Analyses used federal payer perspective; costs and utilities were discounted at 3% annually. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive examinations, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs)., Results: Compared to DM, DBT screening resulted in a slight reduction in breast cancer deaths (range across models 0-0.21 per 1000 women), small increase in QALYs (1.97-3.27 per 1000 women), and a 24-28% reduction in false-positive exams (237-268 per 1000 women) relative to DM. ICERs ranged from $195 026 to $270 135 per QALY for DBT relative to DM. When assuming 4% higher DBT sensitivity, ICERs decreased to $130 533-$156 624 per QALY. ICERs were sensitive to DBT costs, decreasing to $78 731 to $168 883 and $52 918 to $118 048 when the additional cost of DBT was reduced to $36 and $26 (from baseline of $56), respectively., Conclusion: DBT reduces false-positive exams while achieving similar or slightly improved health benefits. At current reimbursement rates, the additional costs of DBT screening are likely high relative to the benefits gained; however, DBT could be cost-effective at lower screening costs., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Importance: Medical imaging increased rapidly from 2000 to 2006, but trends in recent years have not been analyzed., Objective: To evaluate recent trends in medical imaging., Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of patterns of medical imaging between 2000 and 2016 among 16 million to 21 million patients enrolled annually in 7 US integrated and mixed-model insurance health care systems and for individuals receiving care in Ontario, Canada., Exposures: Calendar year and country (United States vs Canada)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Use of computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, and nuclear medicine imaging. Annual and relative imaging rates by imaging modality, country, and age (children [<18 years], adults [18-64 years], and older adults [≥65 years])., Results: Overall, 135 774 532 imaging examinations were included; 5 439 874 (4%) in children, 89 635 312 (66%) in adults, and 40 699 346 (30%) in older adults. Among adults and older adults, imaging rates were significantly higher in 2016 vs 2000 for all imaging modalities other than nuclear medicine. For example, among older adults, CT imaging rates were 428 per 1000 person-years in 2016 vs 204 per 1000 in 2000 in US health care systems and 409 per 1000 vs 161 per 1000 in Ontario; for MRI, 139 per 1000 vs 62 per 1000 in the United States and 89 per 1000 vs 13 per 1000 in Ontario; and for ultrasound, 495 per 1000 vs 324 per 1000 in the United States and 580 per 1000 vs 332 per 1000 in Ontario. Annual growth in imaging rates among US adults and older adults slowed over time for CT (from an 11.6% annual percentage increase among adults and 9.5% among older adults in 2000-2006 to 3.7% among adults in 2013-2016 and 5.2% among older adults in 2014-2016) and for MRI (from 11.4% in 2000-2004 in adults and 11.3% in 2000-2005 in older adults to 1.3% in 2007-2016 in adults and 2.2% in 2005-2016 in older adults). Patterns in Ontario were similar. Among children, annual growth for CT stabilized or declined (United States: from 10.1% in 2000-2005 to 0.8% in 2013-2016; Ontario: from 3.3% in 2000-2006 to -5.3% in 2006-2016), but patterns for MRI were similar to adults. Changes in annual growth in ultrasound were smaller among adults and children in the United States and Ontario compared with CT and MRI. Nuclear medicine imaging declined in adults and children after 2006., Conclusions and Relevance: From 2000 to 2016 in 7 US integrated and mixed-model health care systems and in Ontario, rates of CT and MRI use continued to increase among adults, but at a slower pace in more recent years. In children, imaging rates continued to increase except for CT, which stabilized or declined in more recent periods. Whether the observed imaging utilization was appropriate or was associated with improved patient outcomes is unknown.

Importance: The use of medical imaging has sharply increased over the last 2 decades. Imaging rates during pregnancy have not been quantified in a large, multisite study setting., Objective: To evaluate patterns of medical imaging during pregnancy., Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was performed at 6 US integrated health care systems and in Ontario, Canada. Participants included pregnant women who gave birth to a live neonate of at least 24 weeks' gestation between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2016, and who were enrolled in the health care system for the entire pregnancy., Exposures: Computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging, conventional radiography, angiography and fluoroscopy, and nuclear medicine., Main Outcomes and Measures: Imaging rates per pregnancy stratified by country and year of child's birth., Results: A total of 3 497 603 pregnancies in 2 211 789 women were included. Overall, 26% of pregnancies were from US sites. Most (92%) were in women aged 20 to 39 years, and 85% resulted in full-term births. Computed tomography imaging rates in the United States increased from 2.0 examinations/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 11.4/1000 pregnancies in 2007, remained stable through 2010, and decreased to 9.3/1000 pregnancies by 2016, for an overall increase of 3.7-fold. Computed tomography rates in Ontario, Canada, increased more gradually by 2.0-fold, from 2.0/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 6.2/1000 pregnancies in 2016, which was 33% lower than in the United States. Overall, 5.3% of pregnant women in US sites and 3.6% in Ontario underwent imaging with ionizing radiation, and 0.8% of women at US sites and 0.4% in Ontario underwent CT. Magnetic resonance imaging rates increased steadily from 1.0/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 11.9/1000 pregnancies in 2016 in the United States and from 0.5/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 9.8/1000 pregnancies in 2016 in Ontario, surpassing CT rates in 2013 in the United States and in 2007 in Ontario. In the United States, radiography rates doubled from 34.5/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 72.6/1000 pregnancies in 1999 and then decreased to 47.6/1000 pregnancies in 2016; rates in Ontario slowly increased from 36.2/1000 pregnancies in 1996 to 44.7/1000 pregnancies in 2016. Angiography and fluoroscopy and nuclear medicine use rates were low (5.2/1000 pregnancies), but in most years, higher in Ontario than the United States. Imaging rates were highest for women who were younger than 20 years or aged 40 years or older, gave birth preterm, or were black, Native American, or Hispanic (US data only). Considering advanced imaging only, chest imaging of pregnant women was more likely to use CT in the United States and nuclear medicine imaging in Ontario., Conclusions and Relevance: The use of CT during pregnancy substantially increased in the United States and Ontario over the past 2 decades. Imaging rates during pregnancy should be monitored to avoid unnecessary exposure of women and fetuses to ionizing radiation.