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Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.

Fossil leaf anatomy has previously been used as a proxy for paleoclimate. However, the exposure of leaves to sun or shade during their growth can lead to morphotype differences that confound the interpretation of fossil leaf anatomy in relation to climate and prevent reliable paleoclimate reconstruction. This work aims to model the differences in leaf anatomy that are due to various climatic drivers and differences attributable to sun or shade positions, using Nothofagus cunninghamii as the model species. Leaves from the sun and shade parts of three trees have been sampled from each of 11 sites in Victoria and Tasmania, Australia. The gross morphological and cuticular features have been scored and modelled with climate data from the sites. Random forest models can accurately predict Nothofagus cunninghamii contemporary climatic conditions of the spring temperature and summer rainfall based on leaf anatomical measurements. Leaf area, stomatal density and epidermal cell density are the most accurate predictors of whether a leaf grew in the sun or shade. Leaf area is also the strongest predictor of the maximum and minimum spring temperatures and rainfall. The models have implications for the use of fossilised leaves in paleoclimate reconstruction. The models we have built can be used to effectively predict whether a fossil leaf was from a sun or shade position on the tree and thus enable more reliable inference of paleoclimate by removing the confounding issues of variable leaf anatomy due to sun exposure during growth. Finally, these models could conceivably be used to make predictions of past paleoclimatic conditions provided suitable training and validation data on climatic conditions are available.

An emerging research program on population and geographic range dynamics of Australia's mammals illustrates an approach to better understand and respond to geographic range collapses of threatened wildlife in general. In 1788, Europeans colonized an Australia with a diverse and largely endemic mammal fauna, where many species that are now extinct or threatened were common and widespread. Subsequent population declines, range collapses and extinctions were caused by introduced predators and herbivores, altered land use, modified fire regimes and the synergies between these threats. Declines in population and range size continue for many Australian mammals despite legislative protection and conservation interventions. Here, we propose an approach that integrates museum data and other historical records into process-explicit macroecological models to better resolve mammal distributions and abundances as they were at European arrival. We then illustrate how this integrative approach can identify the likely synergistic mechanisms causing mammal population declines across these and other landscapes. This emerging research approach, undertaken with fine temporal and spatial resolution, but at large geographic scales, will provide valuable insights into the different pathways to, and drivers of, extinction. Such insights may, in turn, underpin conservation strategies based on a process-explicit understanding of population decline and range collapse under alternative scenarios of impending climate and environmental change. Given that similar information is available for other regional biotas, the approach we describe here can be adapted to conserve threatened wildlife in other regions across the globe. An emerging research program on population and geographic range dynamics of Australia's mammals illustrates an approach to better understand and respond to geographic range collapses of threatened wildlife in general. In 1788, Europeans colonized an Australia with a diverse and largely endemic mammal fauna, where many species that are now extinct or threatened were common and widespread. Subsequent population declines, range collapses and extinctions were caused by introduced predators and herbivores, altered land use, modified fire regimes and the synergies between these threats. Declines in population and range size continue for many Australian mammals despite legislative protection and conservation interventions. Here, we propose an approach that integrates museum data and other historical records into process-explicit macroecological models to better resolve mammal distributions and abundances as they were at European arrival. We then illustrate how this integrative approach can identify the likely synergistic mechanisms causing mammal population declines across these and other landscapes. This emerging research approach, undertaken with fine temporal and spatial resolution, but at large geographic scales, will provide valuable insights into the different pathways to, and drivers of, extinction. Such insights may, in turn, underpin conservation strategies based on a process-explicit understanding of population decline and range collapse under alternative scenarios of impending climate and environmental change. Given that similar information is available for other regional biotas, the approach we describe here can be adapted to conserve threatened wildlife in other regions across the globe.

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modelling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected the evolutionary ecology of polar bears around Greenland. We show that throughout the last ∼11,000 years, Greenlandic polar bears have been heavily influenced by changes in sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover. Most notable are major reductions in effective population size at the beginning of the Holocene and during the Holocene Thermal Maximum ∼6 kya, which coincide with increases in annual mean SST, reduction in sea-ice covers, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northwards. Furthermore, we show how individuals sampled from west and east Greenland are genetically, morphologically, and ecologically distinct. We find bears sampled in west Greenland to be larger, more genetically diverse and have diets dominated by ringed seals, whereas bears from east Greenland are smaller and less diverse with more varied diets, putatively driven by regional biotic differences. Taken together, we provide novel insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change, and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.TeaserMultivariate investigations of the environment’s role in the evolutionary ecology of Greenlandic polar bears.

Aim To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Location Siberia. Time period Pleistocene and Holocene. Major taxa studied Steppe bison (Bison priscus). Methods We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate-human-steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) and fossil-based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These "best models" were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Results Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio-temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon-dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Main conclusions Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio-temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Climate stability leads to high levels of speciation and reduced extinction rates, shaping species richness patterns1–3. Hotspots of species diversity often overlap with regions that experienced stable temperatures and, perhaps, variable rates of precipitation during the late Quaternary4,5. These hotspots potentially harbour many species with low vagility and small geographical ranges6, making them more vulnerable to future ecoclimatic change4,7,8. By comparing global and regional patterns of climate stability during short periods of unusually large and widespread climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum with twenty-first-century patterns, we show that human-driven climate change will disproportionally affect biodiversity in late Quaternary climate refugia, ultimately affecting the species, communities and ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, future changes in absolute temperature will probably erode the mechanisms that are theorized to sustain biodiversity hotspots across time. These impending shifts from stable to unstable temperatures—projected for the majority of the world’s biodiversity regions—threaten to reduce the size and extent of important climatic safe havens for diversity. Where climate refugia are forecast to persist until the end of this century, temperatures in these refuges are likely to exceed the acclimation capacity of many species, making them short-term hospices for biodiversity at best7–9. The stability of climatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum has contributed to current global patterns of species richness. Changes in patterns of climate stability this century reveal areas where climate change could reduce biodiversity, with largest losses in past climatic safe havens.

Good pasture management requires an accurate knowledge of whole-farm feedbase, yet most systems for measuring pasture growth are manually operated and time consuming. A newly developed pasture-measuring device enables remote measurement of pasture height on a regular basis. This study investigated the accuracy of such a device compared with a rising plate meter, then assessed the device on a pure perennial ryegrass paddock at a research farm, followed by field testing in a perennial ryegrass/white clover paddock on a commercial dairy farm. A strong correlation (R2 = 0.93) was obtained between collected DM yield and device-derived pasture height within the pure perennial ryegrass paddock but the correlation was weaker (R2 =0.68) with data from the dairy farm perennial ryegrass/white clover paddock. There is considerable potential to improve upon these initial data through the use of adjusted calibrations. Findings demonstrate the device has the potential to accurately estimate pasture growth.

Predation by cats (Felis catus) is implicated in the decline and extinction of many Australian mammal species. We estimate the number of mammals killed by cats across Australia through meta-analysis of data on the frequency of mammals in cat diet samples from 107 studies. For feral cats in largely natural landscapes, the spatially-weighted mean frequency of mammals in diet samples was 70% (44% for native species, 34% for introduced species). Frequency was significantly higher on the mainland, and in areas of low temperature and topographic ruggedness. Geographic patterns varied markedly between native and introduced mammals, with native mammals most frequent in northern Australia. We estimate that: (i) 815 million individuals yr-1 are killed by feral cats in natural landscapes, 56% of which are native species; (ii) 149 million individuals yr-1 are killed by unowned cats in highly modified landscapes; and (iii) 180 million individuals yr-1 are killed by pet cats. For the latter two components, mainly introduced species are killed. Collectively, across the three components of the cat population, 1,144 million individuals yr-1 are killed by cats, of which, at least 40% (459 million individuals yr-1) are native species. It remains challenging to interpret this tally in terms of its impact on population viability for Australian mammals, because demographic information is not available for most species. However, our estimate of annual mammal mortality due to cat predation is substantially higher than that due to another key threatening process, land clearing.

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate–biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth’s history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity., Measurement(s) climate change • climate • temperature of air • volume of hydrological precipitation Technology Type(s) computational modeling technique • digital curation Factor Type(s) timing of temperature and precipitation estimates Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location Earth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12831935

Using the past to inform the future The late Quaternary paleorecord, within the past ∼130,000 years, can help to inform present-day management of the Earth's ecosystems and biota under climate change. Fordham et al. review when and where rapid climate transitions can be found in the paleoclimate record. They show how such events in Earth's history can shape our understanding of the consequences of future global warming, including rates of biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem structure and function, and degradation in the goods and services that these ecosystems provide to humanity. They also highlight how recent developments at the intersection of paleoecology, paleoclimatology, and macroecology can provide opportunities to anticipate and manage the responses of species and ecosystems to changing climates in the Anthropocene. Science , this issue p. eabc5654

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a notorious economic and environmental pest species in its invasive range. To better understand the population and range dynamics of this species, 41 yr of abundance data have been collected from 116 unique sites across a broad range of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. We analyzed this time series of abundance data to determine whether interannual variation in climatic conditions can be used to map historic, contemporary, and potential future fluctuations in rabbit abundance from regional to continental scales. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian regression model of relative abundance that corrected for observation error and seasonal biases. The corrected abundances were regressed against environmental and disease variables in order to project high spatiotemporal resolution, continent-wide rabbit abundances. We show that rabbit abundance in Australia is highly variable in space and time, being driven primarily by internnual variation in temperature and precipitation in concert with the prevalence of a non-pathogenic virus. Moreover, we show that internnual variation in local spatial abundances can be mapped effectively at a continental scale using highly resolved spatiotemporal predictors, allowing "hot spots" of persistently high rabbit abundance to be identified. Importantly, cross-validated model performance was fair to excellent within and across distinct climate zones. Long-term monitoring data for invasive species can be used to map fine-scale spatiotemporal fluctuations in abundance patterns when accurately accounting for inherent sampling biases. Our analysis provides ecologists and pest managers with a clearer understanding of the determinants of rabbit abundance in Australia, offering an important new approach for predicting spatial abundance patterns of invasive species at the near-term temporal scales that are directly relevant to resource management.

Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover., The Australian Research Council supported D.A.F, C.B. and B.W.B (FT140101192, DP1096427, FT100100200, respectively). M.B.A and D.N. acknowledge support from the Foundation for Science and Technology (PTDC/AAG‐MAA/3764/2014).

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high-temporal-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥ 1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption, because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial/interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial time scales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer time scale information. High temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short-term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns, rather than gradual changes in long-term climatic means. Together these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of paleoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macro-ecological patterns in many regions of the world. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

International audience; With ongoing introductions into Australia since the 1700s, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) has become one of the most widely distributed and abundant vertebrate pests, adversely impacting Australia's biodiversity and agroeconomy. To understand the population and range dynamics of the species and its impacts better, occurrence and abundance data have been collected by researchers and citizens from sites covering a broad spectrum of climatic and environmental conditions in Australia. The lack of a common and accessible repository for these data has, however, limited their use in determining important spatiotemporal drivers of the structure and dynamics of the geographical range of rabbits in Australia. To meet this need, we created the Australian National Rabbit Database, which combines more than 50 yr of historical and contemporary survey data collected from throughout the range of the species in Australia. The survey data, obtained from a suite of complementary monitoring methods, were combined with high‐resolution weather, climate, and environmental information, and an assessment of data quality. The database provides records of rabbit occurrence (689,265 records) and abundance (51,241 records, >120 distinct sites) suitable for identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of the rabbit's distribution and for determining spatial patterns of variation in its key life‐history traits, including maximum rates of population growth. Because all data are georeferenced and date stamped, they can be coupled with information from other databases and spatial layers to explore the potential effects of rabbit occurrence and abundance on Australia's native wildlife and agricultural production. The Australian National Rabbit Database is an important tool for understanding and managing the European rabbit in its invasive range and its effects on native biodiversity and agricultural production. It also provides a valuable resource for addressing questions related to the biology, success, and impacts of invasive species more generally. No copyright or proprietary restrictions are associated with the use of this data set other than citation of this Data Paper.

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high-resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km(2), predicting a mean annual coral loss of -0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner-shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no-take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.

Summary The stability of regional climates on millennial timescales is theorised to be a primary determinant of nearby diversification 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Using simulated patterns of past temperature change at monthly timescales [6] , we show that the locations of climatically stable regions are likely to have varied considerably across and within millennia during glacial–interglacial cycles of the Late Quaternary. This result has important implications for the role of regional climate stability in theories of speciation, because long-term climate refugia are typically presumed to be ‘cradles’ of diversity (areas of high speciation) only if they remain stable across Milankovitch climate oscillations 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , which operate on multi-millennial time scales [7] .

An increase in plantation forestry has been linked to a reduction in streamflows in some catchments. Quantifying the relative contribution of this land-use change on streamflows can be complex when those changes occur during weather extremes such as drought. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to two sub-catchments in south-eastern Australia which have seen the introduction and establishment of plantation land use in the past 15 years, coinciding with severe drought (1997–2009). The models were both manually and auto-calibrated and produced very good fits to observed streamflow data during both calibration (1980–1991) and validation (1992–2009) periods. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the models were most sensitive to soil and groundwater parameterisation. Analysis of drought conditions on streamflows showed significant declines from long-term average streamflows, while assessment of baseflow contributions by the models indicated a mix of over- and underestimation depending on catchment and season. The modelled introduction of plantation forestry did not significantly change streamflows for a scenario which did not include the land-use change, suggesting that the modelled land-use change in the catchments was not sufficiently extensive to have an impact on streamflows despite simulating actual rates of change. The SWAT models developed by this study will be invaluable as a basis for future use in regional climate-change studies and for the assessment of land management and land-use change impact on streamflows.

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R2 and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AICC). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R2 and lower AICC. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.

Context Wildlife and pest managers and stakeholders should constantly aim to improve animal-welfare outcomes when foot-hold trapping pest animals. To minimise stress and trauma to trapped animals, traps should be checked at least once every 24h, normally as soon after sunrise as possible. If distance, time, environmental or geographical constraints prevent this, toxins such as strychnine can be fitted to trap jaws to induce euthanasia. However, strychnine is considered to have undesirable animal-welfare outcomes because animals are conscious while clinical signs of intoxication are present. A toxin considered more humane, para-aminopropiophenone (PAPP), is available to induce euthanasia in trapped animals but is untested for presentation and efficacy. Aim We tested the efficacy of two types of lethal trap device (LTD’s), each using a paste formulation of PAPP as the active toxin to replace the use of strychnine on foot-hold jaw traps. Methods Elastomer LTDs and PAPP-cloths were fitted to jaw traps set to capture wild dogs (Canis familiaris). Camera-trap data was used to record animal behaviours after capture and to determine the efficacy of both modalities. Key results Every trapped wild dog (n=117) gnawed at the elastomer LTD’s or PAPP-cloth attached to the trap jaws that restrained them; one dog failed to liberate the toxin. From the dogs caught in the main trial (n=56), a mortality rate of 84% and 87% was reported respectively. The mean time from trap-to-death for elastomer LTDs was 64min and 68min for PAPP-cloths. Conclusions Elastomer LTDs and PAPP cloths combined caused the mortality of 85% of captured dogs. This efficacy could be improved by adopting the recommendations discussed in the present study for deploying PAPP-based LTDs during trap deployment. Implications PAPP-based LTDs offer an alternative option to the use of strychnine and improve the welfare outcomes for trapped predators, especially where traps are not checked within the recommended 24-h period.

Introduction: Student feedback is integral to continuous improvement of medical programmes. A key challenge with student course evaluations is gaining large enough response rates for results to be reliable. This study investigated whether student predictions of peer, rather than personal, responses could address this challenge. Method: An anonymous paper-based student experience of learning and teaching (SELT) survey was distributed to the Year 1–3 medical student cohorts. Students responded to 20 survey statements, using a 6-option Likert-type scale. Ten statements evaluated students’ personal perspectives of the course, while the other 10 statements asked students to predict the most common response by their year cohort. Mean scores between the individual opinion-based and prediction-based statements were compared. An iterative process involving random subsampling was conducted to enable calculation of the minimum required number of responses for a stable outcome for each statement. Results: Two hundred and fifty-nine students participated (response rate 81.7%). Three out of the 10 paired statements in the prediction-based survey accurately predicted the group opinion-based mean. For the remaining seven statement pairs, there were statistically significant (although small) differences in mean. The calculation of mean number of responses required for a stable outcome found that the prediction-based SELT required significantly fewer (189) responses than the opinion-based SELT (215) (95% CI 15.3–35.7, p < 0.001). Conclusions: A prediction-based style of course evaluation using a 6-option Likert-type scale approximated the results gained when asking for individual opinion and required fewer responses to achieve a stable outcome.

How apt that I received Stories of Mentoring: Theory and Praxis in January of 2009, a time now marked as National Mentoring Month. Rhetoric and composition as a discipline has long prided itself on...

This chapter illustrates the technique of removing the gastrointestinal system from the body, and dissecting and examining the gastrointestinal organs. These techniques are illustrated in sequential prosection views. The chapter also illustrates the common abnormal findings in the gastrointestinal system at autopsy, and how these findings may relate to death.

Wayne Booth died October 10, 2005. I remember the pang at seeing the announcement. As The New York Times reported, he was “one of the pre-eminent literary critics of the second half of the 20th cen...

Educational settings tend to provide highly specialized contexts for learning. In contrast, workplaces are increasingly multidisciplinary, presenting challenges often not considered in the technical communication curriculum. Our technical communication program is addressing this issue by building partnerships with programs in mechanical engineering and industrial engineering. In this article, we discuss a study of our initial semester matching technical communication students with teams of engineers in a capstone, client-based design course. We focus on challenges the students faced in the multidisciplinary, client-based experience. Based on our initial results, we suggest that academic and professional settings could do more to address the types of challenges identified. We call for a more inclusive pedagogy, one that expands the boundaries of technical communication and welcomes multidisciplinary experience in shared contexts.

(2000). The arrival of rhetoric in the twenty‐first century: The 1999 survey of doctoral programs in rhetoric. Rhetoric Review: Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 233-242.

Ghostwriting is viewed by some as a necessary element for crafting an effective public image. Defenders of ghostwriting see no ethical dilemma in the practice because the audience knows the “speechgiver” is not necessarily the “speechwriter.” Alernatively, those regarding ghostwriting as unethical view the practice as deceitful. This group argues that the audience does not recognize the employment of a speechwriter and thus a speechgiver relies on the words of another to fortify personal ethos. This article examines several positions regarding the ethics of ghostwriting and discusses an empirical study testing three major positions found in ghostwriting literature. Findings from the study indicate that respondents do recognize the use of speechwriters by certain individuals in certain circumstances.

Cannibalism in predators has been reported for a range of species throughout the world, including observations of dingoes (Canis familiaris) eating dingoes in Australia. Here, we report on camera trap observations of dingoes feeding on the carcasses of dingoes and showing aggressive behaviours towards live-trapped conspecifics. At this site, cannibalism and conspecific aggression by dingoes was not caused by food shortages, but was more likely a result of high dingo density in a focal area. We present the first camera trap image observations of dingoes eating dingoes and describe aggressive encounters between live animals.

This Biographical Dictionary provides detailed accounts of the lives, works, influence and reception of thinkers from all the major philosophical schools and traditions of the twentieth-century. This unique volume covers the lives and careers of thinkers from all areas of philosophy - from analytic philosophy to Zen and from formal logic to aesthetics. All the major figures of philosophy, such as Nietzsche, Wittgenstein and Russell are examined and analysed. The scope of the work is not merely restricted to the major figures in western philosophy but also covers in depth a significant number of thinkers from the near and far east and from the non-European Hispanic-language communities. The Biographical Dictionary also includes a number of general entries dealing with important schools of philosophy, such as the Vienna Circle, or currents of thought, such as vitalism. These allow the reader to set the individual biographies in the context of the philosophical history of the period. With entries written by over 100 leading philosophy scholars, the Biographical Dictionary is the most comprehensive survey of twentieth-century thinkers to date.

The biology of three landlocked and a riverine population of Galaxias maculatus were examined in western Victoria, Australia. All systems supported reproducing populations of these fish, including Lake Corangamite which had salinities that on occasion reached 82. Spawning sites in Lake Corangamite were located in adjacent tributaries and not in the main lake as was the case for other populations. The smallest fish were found in the fresh water Lake Purrumbete and the largest in the hypersaline Lake Corangamite. The size at which 50% of the population attained sexual maturity varied across sites, with fish maturing at a smaller size in Lake Purrumbete, followed by the Merri River, Lake Bullen Merri and Lake Corangamite. Condition was higher in the freshwater Lake Purrumbete and there was no relationship between condition and temperature, conductivity, turbidity and pH; but there was a positive relationship between condition and dissolved oxygen. Length frequency analysis suggested that the majority of fishes live for a year.

(1994). Doctoral programs in rhetoric and composition: A catalog of the profession. Rhetoric Review: Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 240-389.

This chapter briefly summarizes salvage excavations at the Dorset Palaeoeskimo burial sites of Crow Head Cave (EeBi-4) and the Gargamelle Rockshelter (EeBi-21) on the Port au Choix Peninsula (Fig. 12.1) yielding evidence which modestly supplements the meagre database for Palaeoeskimo mortuary behaviour (Brown 1988). These data are analysed in conjunction with other Palaeoeskimo burials from the eastern Arctic to suggest a number of characteristics of Dorset Palaeoeskimo mortuary behaviour in general and Newfoundland Dorset burial practices in particular. These data indicate that the regional nature of the Newfoundland Dorset culture, first suggested by Harp (1964), may be further expressed in terms of mortuary behaviour.

One Hundred Twentieth-Century Philosophers offers biographical information and critical analysis of the life, work and impact of some of the most significant figures in philosophy this century. Taken from the acclaimed Biographical Dictionary of Twentieth-Century Philosophers, the 100 entries are alphabetically organised, from Adorno to Zhang Binglin, and cover individuals from both continental and analytic philosophy. A separate glossary provides an introduction to the origins, development and main features of major philosophical schools and movements and offers select bibliographies to guide the reader to further research