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Protected areas (PAs) have been regarded as a critical strategy to protect natural forest (NF) and biodiversity. Estate‐crop expansion is an important driver of deforestation in Indonesia. Yet, little is known regarding the temporal dynamics of PA effectiveness in preventing estate‐crop expansion into NF. We employ Cox proportional hazard models and their extensions to characterize the dynamics of estate‐crop expansion into NF in Indonesia during 1996–2015. The results show that PA effectiveness in Sumatra decreased over time and became insignificant in 2012–2015. A multistate modeling analysis shows that hopping in land‐cover and land‐use change (LCLUC) trajectories with shrub and/or bare ground as intermediates has decreased PA effectiveness and facilitated the expansion. Preventing LCLUC trajectory hopping becomes crucial to biodiversity conservation because it tends to occur at lowland forest, diminishing natural habitat area and increasing NF isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unsustainable overexploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation has led to rapid groundwater depletion and severe environmental damage in the semi-arid Hebei Plain of China. Field experiments have recommended annual winter fallowing (i.e., forgoing winter wheat production) as the most effective way to replenish groundwater. However, adopting the recommendation across the Hebei Plain would lead to a significant reduction in total wheat production. This research aims to find the most favorable water-sustainable cropping systems for different localities in the Hebei Plain, which at the regional aggregation level maintains the uppermost overall levels of wheat and grain production respectively. Our simulations indicate that in the Hebei Plain, an optimal allocation of a wheat-early maize relay intercropping system and an early maize-winter fallow cropping system across the Hebei Plain could lead to significant water savings while minimizing grain production losses to around 11%. Compared to the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system , to prevent a drop in the water table, 39% of the current wheat cropping land would need to be fallowed in winter, reducing irrigation water use by 2639 × 106 m3. Replacing the prevailing wheat and summer maize cropping system with our optimized allocation system could lead to a 36% increase in total maize production and 39% decrease in total wheat production, resulting in total agricultural irrigation water savings of 2322 × 106 m3 and a total grain production reduction by 11%. The findings indicate the potential benefits of our cropping system adaptation method to meet the challenge of recovering local groundwater level with the least possible reduction of wheat and total grain production in the Hebei Plain. • The current practice of overexploiting groundwater in the Hebei Plan is unsustainable • We search for the desired water-sustainable cropping systems across localities in the Plain • Minimizing the reduction of wheat production and recovering water table • The crop allocation procedure and findings enrich the literature and inform policy makers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insufficient precipitation and continuous over-exploitation of groundwater for agricultural irrigation led to rapid drop of groundwater table in a large part of the North China Plain (NCP), the bread basket of China. It has become widely acknowledged that current practice of winter wheat-summer maize sequential cropping system (WM-S) in the NCP will have to come to an end as soon as possible. Great research efforts have been made at the local level via both field experiments and model simulations to construct groundwater neutral cropping systems but virtually all such constructs show a substantial penalty on total output per unit of land per year. In this research, we propose a strategy to meet the double challenge of maintaining regional grain production level and recovering local groundwater table: 1) Widely adopt winter fallow and early-sowing summer maize monocropping (E-M) in water scarce part of the region to enable groundwater recovery; 2) replace WM-S by wheat-maize relay intercropping system (WM-R) in the water richer part of the NCP to increase grain production so as to compensate yield losses in the water scarce part of the region. Our simulations using DSSAT 4.6 at the site level show that both yield and water productivity of E-M are 33.7% and 41.8% higher than those of existing summer maize, with less than 20% of increase in water requirement. In comparison with spring maize, E-M requires 62.4% less irrigation water, with a yield penalty of only 4.52%. At the regional scale, the simulations targeting at maximizing groundwater saving in water scarce area subject to maintaining the current level of regional total output indicate that about 20.45% of the wheat planting area can be put on fallow in winter, most of which is located in the driest regions of the NCP. This can result in a large amount of groundwater saving at 5.62 × 10 9 m 3 and a substitution of wheat by maize at 24.3% of the total wheat output. These findings provide new rooms for the relevant policy makers and stakeholders to address the urgent groundwater recovering issues in the northern NCP without compromising the level of food grain production of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change is increasingly driven by global trade. The term “telecoupling” has been gaining ground as a means to describe how human actions in one part of the world can have spatially distant impacts on land and land-use in another. These interactions can, over time, create both direct and spatially distant feedback loops, in which human activity and land use mutually impact one another over great expanses. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework to clarify spatially distant feedbacks in the case of land use and global trade. We use an innovative mix of multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis and stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOMs) for analyzing the co-evolution of changes in trade network patterns with those of land use, as embodied in trade. Our results indicate that the formation of trade ties and changes in embodied land use mutually impact one another, and further, that these changes are linked to disparities in countries' wealth. Through identifying this feedback loop, our results support ongoing discussions about the unequal trade patterns between rich and poor countries that result in uneven distributions of negative environmental impacts. Finally, evidence for this feedback loop is present even when controlling for a number of underlying mechanisms, such as countries' land endowments, their geographical distance from one another, and a number of endogenous network tendencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil palm plantation has expanded rapidly in Indonesia, driven by the enormous increase in the global demand for oil palm products. While the production and exporting of oil palm products have stimulated economic growth and improved living standards of local people, the expansion has imposed significant costs on the environment. Indonesia faces tough challenges to balance oil palm production with the growing commitment to protect tropical forest and peatland. This research offered a comprehensive assessment of the local responses in land-use changes and the associated environmental impacts in Indonesia to the dynamics on the global market of oil palm products. We employed generalized geo-economic gravity models to project export demand for oil palm products from Indonesia by 2050 under three different international trade scenarios. With the help of parametric survival analysis, we allocated the projected demands to 1km × 1km grids across Indonesia and quantified the possible trade-offs between oil palm expansion and environmental conservation. Results show that about 313–679 million tons of oil palm products (oil palm fruit equivalent) from Indonesia would be needed by 2050, which means about 18.58–45.59 million hectares of new plantation. We estimated that 8%–22% of secondary forest and 21%–54% of peatland would lose to oil palm expansion by 2050 if the expansion follows the historical pathways. Shifting the expansion from natural forest and peatland to degraded land with low environmental values would reduce the CO 2 emission by about 87–142 Mton/year, at the expense of increased transportation and infrastructure accessibility costs. This shift towards sustainable palm oil production can be facilitated by extending current policies and regulations to secondary forest, enforcing stricter restrictions on peatland, supporting infrastructure development, and providing economic incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil palm plantation has expanded rapidly in Indonesia, driven by the enormous increase in the global demand for oil palm products. While the production and exporting of oil palm products have stimulated economic growth and improved living standards of local people, the expansion has imposed significant costs on the environment. Indonesia faces tough challenges to balance oil palm production with the growing commitment to protect tropical forest and peatland. This research offered a comprehensive assessment of the local responses in land-use changes and the associated environmental impacts in Indonesia to the dynamics on the global market of oil palm products. We employed generalized geo-economic gravity models to project export demand for oil palm products from Indonesia by 2050 under three different international trade scenarios. With the help of parametric survival analysis, we allocated the projected demands to 1km × 1km grids across Indonesia and quantified the possible trade-offs between oil palm expansion and environmental conservation. Results show that about 313–679 million tons of oil palm products (oil palm fruit equivalent) from Indonesia would be needed by 2050, which means about 18.58–45.59 million hectares of new plantation. We estimated that 8%–22% of secondary forest and 21%–54% of peatland would lose to oil palm expansion by 2050 if the expansion follows the historical pathways. Shifting the expansion from natural forest and peatland to degraded land with low environmental values would reduce the CO 2 emission by about 87–142 Mton/year, at the expense of increased transportation and infrastructure accessibility costs. This shift towards sustainable palm oil production can be facilitated by extending current policies and regulations to secondary forest, enforcing stricter restrictions on peatland, supporting infrastructure development, and providing economic incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate how structural patterns of international trade give rise to emissions inequalities across countries, and how such inequality in turn impact countries’ mortality rates. We employ Multi-regional Input-Output analysis to distinguish between sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emissions produced within a country’s boarders (production-based emissions) and emissions triggered by consumption in other countries (consumption-based emissions). We use social network analysis to capture countries’ level of integration within the global trade network. We then apply the Prais-Winsten panel estimation technique to a panel data set across 172 countries over 20 years (1990–2010) to estimate the relationships between countries’ level of integration and SO2 emissions, and the impact of trade integration and SO2 emission on mortality rates. Our findings suggest a positive, (log-) linear relationship between a country’s level of integration and both kinds of emissions. In addition, although more integrated countries are mainly responsible for both forms of emissions, our findings indicate that they also tend to experience lower mortality rates. Our approach offers a unique combination of social network analysis with multiregional input-output analysis, which better operationalizes intuitive concepts about global trade and trade structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: China has become increasingly dependent on the international energy market owing to the rapid growth of demand for energy. To develop renewable energy and thus strengthen energy security for the future, it is important to consider the potential of crop residues. This paper contributes to this topic by mobilizing up-to-date statistical and remote-sensing data and by carrying out a geographic and economic analysis. Its assessment shows that China's total output of crop residues in 2010 amounted to 729 million tons, and the quantity could be used for commercial energy production is between 147 and 334 million tons, depending on the competition power of the commercial energy production relative to the traditional uses of crop residues. The analysis also shows that the distribution of crop residues in China is highly uneven. By taking into account the densities of crop residues available for energy production at the grid-cell level, the transportation cost constraints, and the economy-of-scale requirements of energy plants, this study further assesses the geographic distribution of the suitability for establishing crop residue based power plants and bioenergy plants in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: China, like many other countries, is promoting the development of liquid biofuel, including bioethanol and biodiesel. The Chinese government has set biofuel development targets for the coming decade and sanctioned a series of supportive policies. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of current liquid biofuel development in China, related government policies, and the potential opportunities and challenges for its future expansion. Our assessment is based on two rounds of in-depth fieldwork and a thorough literature review. The assessment shows that the prevailing concern on food security has pushed China to move from cereal-based to non-cereal-based biofuel production. Emphasis has also been put on utilizing new marginal land for feedstock production. Our assessment indicates that the targets of China''s biofuel development are cautious and feasible, but on the other hand there are still severe challenges for the sustainability of such development. A better understanding of China''s experience in striking a balance between energy security, food security and environmental protection would inform the debates across country boundaries and contribute to the efforts for global sustainability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article discuses the application of spatial dynamic model to the study of cross-province growth in China. It states that the model introduces technology diffusion, factor mobility and structural change in cross-region growth regression. It notes that the perspective on structural change of development economics provide an improved account of income levels and economic growth in interprovincial variations.

Summary: This paper proposes a micro-level framework to account for how firms in developing economies overcome domestic institutional constraints. It illustrates that the mechanisms enabling those firms to benefit from financial globalization are more complex than the “direct” financial channels outlined in the neo-classical approach. China provides an important example in this context, as its capital market liberalization has been limited and neither the legal nor the financial system is well developed. Yet micro-level evidence from China’s internationally listed enterprises indicates that innovative firms can overcome institutional thresholds, secure access to international capital, and benefit and learn from international capital markets. This can in turn induce market-level improvements through regulatory competition and demand for a more standardized system of economic regulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For emerging democracies, how to reach state-society equilibriums conducive to both democratization and effective governance has been a most challenging issue. Illustrating such a predicament, in present-day Taiwan a situation of 'divided government' has been widely regarded in the literature as implying frequent legislative-executive stalemate and ineffective governance. In this article, we argue that while power games among the three conventional branches of government - the executive, legislature, and judiciary - may continue to produce a governmental stalemate equilibrium, the entry of increasingly important media and interest group players into the policy-making arena in Taiwan has shown strong potential to make up for the institutional failing of divided government. Drawing on the adoption process of the 2001 Financial Holding Company Law, we examine the conditions under which effective governance can still be achieved in Taiwan. Our analysis shows that concerted media pressure can succeed in forcing Taiwan's major parties to jointly pursue beneficial legislation. The analysis also suggests that interest group involvement in Taiwanese policy-making does not necessarily lead to crippling 'regulatory capture' but, on the contrary, can entail welfare enhancing change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As countries implement renewable energy policies, it's important to understand the impacts of policies on sustainability. Population, economic and production changes affects in land use, water consumption and emissions along with trade-offs for limited resources to achieve food and energy security. Thailand faces increasing electricity imports and agricultural production, causing residue burning, a resource utilized for electricity generation. Thailand implemented a renewable energy policy and another to curb sugarcane residue burning addressing above challenges. The paper uses an extended input-output model in Thailand and the Northeast to understand impacts of these policies on output, labor income, employment, land and water use, etc. The study concludes these policies lead to supplementary increase in income, employment and value added contributing towards achieving SDGs through energy security, climate action, decent work and economic growth. At a national level, renewable energy policy is unable to capture a large potential of biomass electricity, while the no burn policy is better able to achieve sustainability through total output, income, employment, and water use. The renewable energy policy in Northeast Thailand is better able to capture the electricity potential. The Northeast also sees land use shifts from rice to cane, which could cause food security challenges. • Thailand faces growing challenges with energy security and crop residue burning. • To address the challenges, they implemented RE policies and crop burning policies. • The study uses extended input-output models in Thailand and Northeast Thailand. • We see positive effects of the policies on the economy, society and environment. • The policies fall short in capturing the full potential of biomass electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A crop yield predicting model for promoting sustainable production and facilitating local stakeholder decision-making. • LSTM with Attention model can perform well better than panel regression but falls short when trained with small dataset. • Departmental series of peak NDVI images were effective for early soybean yield prediction. • Deep learning models showed superior generalization, predicting well on new, unseen data. The accurate prediction of soybean yield is vital for global food market stabilization and food security. Recent advancements in remote sensing technology have significantly amplified interest in leveraging satellite-based methods for predicting crop yield. These methods offer in-season yield estimates. By utilizing this timely information, decision-makers can formulate strategic, well-informed choices that preemptively mitigate potential food price hikes, ultimately bolstering food security. While simple regression models have been widely utilized for satellite-based yield prediction, researchers have recently begun to explore the use of deep learning algorithms. This study compares the performance of panel regression and deep learning models for in-season soybean yield prediction at the Department (county-equivalent) level in Argentina. Data sources include the latest soybean land use products and MODIS bi-weekly vegetation index products. Results indicate that deep learning models significantly outperform panel regression. Deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, which incorporate attention mechanism and a series of peak NDVI images, generate more accurate and time-sensitive predictions. Among competing LSTM models, the one with attention mechanism applied to the entire growing season's NDVI data yields the highest prediction accuracy, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 505.78 kg/ha and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.0726. The LSTM model with attention on the three highest NDVI images attains a satisfactory prediction accuracy (RMSE = 627.28 kg/ha, NRMSE = 0.089) six weeks prior to harvest. This study presents a robust model for predicting crop yields, promoting sustainable production of soybeans and facilitating knowledgeable choices among farmers and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interregional free-trade of agricultural products is expected to transfer embodied (virtual) water from more to less water-productive regions. However, irrigation in semi-arid to arid regions may significantly push up agricultural productivity but cause local water scarcity. This may result in a puzzle: inter-regional trade may save overall water consumption but lead to more severe local water scarcity. An analogous puzzle may exist for farmland, for instance, trade may save farmland but not address farmland scarcity. To test the existence of these two important puzzles, we applied environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models to obtain the inter-regional virtual agricultural water and land transfer across 48 states of the conterminous U.S. and estimated their agricultural land and water footprints in 2017. Such a detailed analysis showed that while the land-abundant Midwestern states exported a sizable amount of virtual farmland to other densely populated areas and foreign nations, the water-stressed Western U.S. and Southwestern U.S. states, like California, Arizona, and New Mexico, exported considerable amounts of water-intensive crops such as fruits, vegetables and tree nuts to the Eastern U.S. and overseas, thus worsen the local water scarcity of those water scarce states. Our analysis highlights a critical dilemma inherent in an economic productivity-focused incentive regime: It frequently leads to increased withdrawal of scarce water. Therefore, resource scarcity rents need to be reflected in inter-regional trade with the support of local environmental policies. • Interstate trade mitigates coastal U.S. cropland scarcity but worsens water issues. • The Southwest states export significant virtual water via water-intensive crops. • Conflict between high economic productivity and water use exists in California. • Underpricing of water boosts farming of high-profit, water-intensive crops. • Policies needed for balancing land and water use, ensuring sustainable agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Biofuels play a critical role in the Paris Agreement to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. However, a significant increase in production of biofuels might potentially be realized at the expense of overusing natural resources, particularly land and water. Understanding the tradeoffs between the impacts on land and water arises as a critical issue in the development of biofuels. This energy- water-land nexus might be particularly important for Brazil, which currently is the world's second largest producer and the largest exporter of biofuels. Furthermore, Brazil itself has set up its own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution agenda with a significant growth of biofuel production (18%) by 2030. Most studies on environmental impacts of biofuel production have either focused on land use or water use, but very few studies assessed both. Using an environmentally extended multiregional input-output (MRIO) approach, this study analyzes the current water-land nexus of bioenergy production in Brazil by quantifying the distribution of tradeoffs and synergies between land and water use for bioethanol production and its environmental consequences across Brazilian states. Our results show a clear tradeoff of water and land impacts and significant differences between irrigated and rainfed ethanol production. When including water and land scarcity in the analysis, the results are significantly different, uncovering very different tradeoffs and synergies between bioethanol producer and consumer states that could inform the expansion of bioenergy in Brazil. Compared to other crops, sugarcane has a higher comparative advantage relative to land than to water. Highlights • Biofuels play a critical role in the Paris Agreement to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. • This study analyzes the current water-land nexus of bioenergy production in Brazil. • Our results show a clear tradeoff of water and land impacts between irrigated and rainfed ethanol production. • Compared to other crops, sugarcane has a higher comparative advantage relative to land than to water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's urban agglomerations contribute 64 percent to China's energy-related CO2 emissions and thus play a vital role in determining the future of climate change. There is little information available about city-level energy consumption and CO2 emissions; thus, we employ spatiotemporal modeling using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Line-scan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light imagery. Our findings show that such agglomerations have in fact experienced a remarkable decline in CO2 emission intensity--from 0.43 t/thousand yuan to 0.20 t/thousand yuan between 1995 and 2013, which constitutes an average annual decline of 4.34 percent. Despite still very high CO2 intensities in western China, a convergence of CO2 intensities across the country has occurred over the last few decades. Using panel regression modeling, we analyze differences in the decline of CO2 emission intensities due to regional differences in socioeconomic variables such as economic growth, population, economic structure, population density, and characteristics of urbanization. Factors that have hampered the decline of CO2 intensities are the ongoing industrialization that demands the increase in the production of heavy industry, in infrastructure investment, and in housing stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The production of TCR is unequally distributed across regions. • Net importers of embodied TCR are mainly focused on the east and west coastal areas. • The non-metallic and metallic products sectors are the most important sectors. • The largest portion of embodied TCR were triggered by households' final demand. • High-income groups account for high percent of total TCR footprint. Toxic chemicals have severe impacts on ecosystem, climate change and human health, and the current toxic releases are inequitably distributed across regions. Investigating the toxic release embodied in final demand by states and income groups can reveal the responsibility transfer of different entities. In this paper, we extended the U.S. multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model with toxic chemical release data in 2017 to conduct the production- and consumption-based accounting of toxic release by each state, and the inter-regional transfer of embodied toxic release between states. In addition, this paper analyzed how the toxic releases and inter-state transfer of embodied toxic release have been driven by income groups across states. The results showed that the toxic release from production was highly concentrated on the central states and the Great Lakes Region, while the consumption-based accounting of toxic release was more equally distributed across regions in the US. The non-metallic and metallic products manufacturing sectors were the most important sectors for most states from both production and consumption-based perspectives and were also the most essential sectors for interregional flows of embodied toxic release from Great Lake Region to Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Our results also showed that the largest portion (41.88%) of embodied toxic releases were triggered by households' final demand, and that the consumption of the richest 35% of households contributed to more than 50% of the total toxic chemical releases triggered by total final demand of all households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. Wheat is one of the two major staple cereals consumed in the country and about 60% of Chinese population eats the grain daily. To safeguard the production of this important crop, about 85% of wheat areas in the country are under irrigation or high rainfall conditions. However, wheat production in the future will be challenged by the increasing occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme weather events. In this paper, we present an analysis that combines outputs from a wide range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with observational data to produce more detailed projections of local climate suitable for assessing the impact of increasing heat stress events on wheat yield. We run the assessment at 36 representative sites in China using the crop growth model CSM-CropSim Wheat of DSSAT 4.5. The simulations based on historical data show that this model is suitable for quantifying yield damages caused by heat stress. In comparison with the observations of baseline 1996-2005, our simulations for the future indicate that by 2100 the projected increases in heat stress would lead to an ensemble-mean yield reduction of −7.1% (with a probability of 80%) and −17.5% (with a probability of 96%) for winter wheat and spring wheat, respectively, under the irrigated condition. Although such losses can be fully compensated by CO fertilization effect as parameterized in DSSAT 4.5, a great caution is needed in interpreting this fertilization effect because existing crop dynamic models are unable to incorporate the effect of CO acclimation (the growth-enhancing effect decreases over time) and other offsetting forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, many megacities in the world have suffered from increasingly frequent heat waves. During heat waves, air-conditioners, refrigerators, and electric fans add a considerable peak demand on electrical utility grids, and on the supply side, high temperatures exert adverse effects on electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Without pro-active planning and mitigation measures, the overloading would result in more frequent blackouts (the complete failure of electricity distribution) and brownouts (voltage reductions). To facilitate a pro-active planning, which aims to replace blackouts and brownouts by a rationing regime in selected sectors, this research proposes an integrated modeling tool which couples a regression model between daily electricity use and maximum temperature over the summer and a mixed input–output model with supply constraints. With the help of available data in Shanghai, China, we show that this tool is capable of quantitatively estimating the overall economic effects and sequential changes in carbon emissions, which a given magnitude of power rationing in a specific sector can exert across all sectors. The availability of such information would enable decision makers to plan an electricity rationing regime at the sector level to meet the double criterions of minimizing the overall economic losses and maximizing the extent of carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water, in particular water scarcity, is the fulcrum of China's dilemma in pursuing industrialization, income growth, modernization, and national food security. The Haihe River Basin (HRB) is an extremely water stressed hydrological system, which encompasses the two megacities of Beijing and Tianjin, and is experiencing the detrimental impacts of the recent unprecedented economic growth on its scarce water resources. We applied an integrated multi-regional input–output (MRIO) hydro-economic model combined with the water scarcity index to analyze consumption water footprint (WF) and embedded or virtual water flows in inter-regional trade in the HRB and their impacts on hydrosystems (scarcity water footprint). The study shows that in 2007, the WF of the HRB was approximately 37.1 billion m 3 (277 m 3 per capita), of which the ‘scarcity’ WF was approximately 26.7 billion m 3 or 72% of the total WF. In line with its high level of water scarcity, the HRB's net import level of virtual water was 11.3 billion m 3 (84 m 3 per capita), with the total import of 25.9 billion m 3 and total export of 14.6 billion m 3 . In contrast, the HRB's net import level of virtual scarce water is at a relatively moderate scale of 1.8 billion m 3 , with the import of 15.7 billion m 3 and export of 13.9 billion m 3 . While it is highly desirable to import more virtual water from water rich regions, a caution is needed in importing virtual scarce water because the latter will lead to greater water stress in other water scarce regions. Accounting for water scarcity in the WF analysis increases the effectiveness of the analysis and generates more valuable and accurate information for water management and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

China has experienced rapid urbanization in the last three decades, with more than half of the population living in cities since 2012. The extent of urban production and urban lifestyles has become one of the main drivers for China's CO 2 emissions. To analyze drivers of CO 2 emissions we use a consumption-based accounting approach that allocates all emissions along the production chain to the product and place of final consumption, whereas a production-based approach would allocate all emissions to the place of origin. In this study, we focus on the spatial distribution of production activities leading to CO 2 emissions across China as a consequence of final consumption in four Chinese mega cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing. Urban consumption not only causes a large amount of emissions within its territory, but also imposes even much more emissions to its surrounding provinces via interregional supply chains. Results show that more than 48% of CO 2 emissions related to goods consumed in Chongqing and more than 70% for Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin occurred outside of the respective city boundary. In addition to the usual focus on efficiency, our analysis adds insights into the causes of CO 2 emissions by looking at the drivers and types of consumption. Addressing consumption patterns in China's cities is critical for China's low carbon development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although research has shown that countries' world-systems positions can predict levels of pollution and wealth, there has been little research looking at how consumption in the core triggers both pollution and wealth elsewhere in the world economy. In this article, we track how consumption in the United States, a core country, triggers value added and pollution throughout global commodity chains. We track these distributions for all commodities and services consumed in the United States, then for six commodity groupings, and finally for two case studies, “Motor Vehicles” and “Wearing Apparel.” Our findings show how the production of commodities for US consumption tends to reify inequalities in the world-system: Larger shares of value added (in comparison to shares of pollution) are generally prompted within the core, whereas the opposite effect tends to be experienced in the non-core. We also discuss interesting exceptions to these general trends occurring at different levels of analysis. Finally, we draw special attention to China, the elephant in the room that exhibits both core and peripheral characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

ABSTRACT The recent warming trends have led to rising concerns on how the changing climate has been altering and will continue to alter agroclimatic conditions in China. In this study, high resolution climate scenarios from regional climate models ( RCMs) are used as input to the agro-ecological zones ( AEZ) model for China and to compute a comprehensive set of agroclimatic indicators. Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions are also discussed with respect to (1) RCM outputs for different emission scenarios, and (2) differences in projections obtained from two different RCMs under the same emission scenario. The results indicate a significant extension of the crop growing period in tandem with the rising temperatures during the crop growing season, which may lead to increase in multi-cropping opportunities at high latitudes and thus advance the total potential output per unit of cropland. However, the results show that the Southwest China will experience a significant reduction in the value of humidity index, implying severe challenges for future agricultural development in the region. Spatially explicit patterns of changes in future agroclimatic conditions, as revealed in this study, can be beneficial for policy-makers, farming communities and other stakeholders to assess risk factors, design adaptation and mitigation measures, and improve management practices at the local to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N)−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long‐term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid and semi‐arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi‐arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high‐resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS‐2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro‐Ecological Zone model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high‐resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Key Points: Improving the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions in the semi‐arid North ChinaThe high‐resolution Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies projections correspond better with the observationsThe Chinese Medicinal Yam production areas will expand northward in the future, the average yield will increase by 1196–1336 kg DM/ha in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Trade-offs and synergies of economic-social-environmental aspects under water constraints • Integrated approach that couples supply constrained MRIO and MCDA. • Economy and job losses versus environment gains under industrial transition scenarios • Informs capital region's industrial transition plan for water regulation • Integrated policy supports to assess costs and benefits of various strategies and SDGs Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water assessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a "nexus" approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios including nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposition of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responding to accelerating climate change impacts requires broad and effective engagement with stakeholders, at multiple geographic and governance levels. Stakeholder participation has been hailed as a facilitated approach in climate change adaptation that supports social learning, depolarization of perceptions, and fosters collective action. But stakeholder participation remains loosely interpreted and evaluating measures are limited. This study employs social network analysis (SNA) to investigate how social relations among stakeholders, which emerge as a result of participation, are associated with stakeholder learning, as changes in perceptions of climate change. We hypothesized that reciprocal ties of understanding, respect, and influence can predict changes in perceptions of climate change. This approach was applied to a case study in Deal Island Peninsula, Maryland (USA) where local residents, scientists, and government officials met from 2016 to 2018 to collaboratively manage the impacts of sea-level rise in their communities. We found that social relations based on mutual understanding, respect , and influence are positively associated with perceptions of climate change. We provide a detailed conceptualization and implementation of a network-based approach that may serve as a potential quantitative performance measure of stakeholder participation processes in climate change adaptation. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the role that emerging social relations have on enhancing or constraining social learning among stakeholders in the Deal Island Peninsula project. • We study the role of multiple social networks on stakeholder perceptions • Social network analysis is used to quantify contagion processes in participation • Mutual understanding, respect, influence predict perceptions of climate change • The methodology provides precision on a measure of stakeholder participation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responding to accelerating climate change impacts requires broad and effective engagement with stakeholders, at multiple geographic and governance levels. Stakeholder participation has been hailed as a facilitated approach in climate change adaptation that supports social learning, depolarization of perceptions, and fosters collective action. But stakeholder participation remains loosely interpreted and evaluating measures are limited. This study employs social network analysis (SNA) to investigate how social relations among stakeholders, which emerge as a result of participation, are associated with stakeholder learning, as changes in perceptions of climate change. We hypothesized that reciprocal ties of understanding, respect, and influence can predict changes in perceptions of climate change. This approach was applied to a case study in Deal Island Peninsula, Maryland (USA) where local residents, scientists, and government officials met from 2016 to 2018 to collaboratively manage the impacts of sea-level rise in their communities. We found that social relations based on mutual understanding, respect , and influence are positively associated with perceptions of climate change. We provide a detailed conceptualization and implementation of a network-based approach that may serve as a potential quantitative performance measure of stakeholder participation processes in climate change adaptation. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the role that emerging social relations have on enhancing or constraining social learning among stakeholders in the Deal Island Peninsula project. • We study the role of multiple social networks on stakeholder perceptions • Social network analysis is used to quantify contagion processes in participation • Mutual understanding, respect, influence predict perceptions of climate change • The methodology provides precision on a measure of stakeholder participation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing inequality, eradicating poverty and achieving a carbon-neutral society are recognized as important components of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. In this study, we focus on carbon and energy inequality between and within ten Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Detailed carbon and energy footprint were estimated by combining the consumption profiles (2014) in ten LAC countries with environmental extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. Our results show significant inequality of regional total and per capita carbon and energy footprint across the studied LAC countries in 2014. The top 10% income category was responsible for 29.1% and 26.3% of the regional total carbon and energy footprint, and their per capita carbon and energy footprint were 12.2 and 7.5 times of the bottom 10% earners in that region. The average carbon footprint of studied LAC countries varied between 0.53 and 2.21 t CO 2 e/cap (ton of CO 2 equivalent, per capita), and the energy footprint ranged from 0.38 to 1.76 t SOE/cap (ton of Standard Oil Equivalent, per capita). The huge difference in total and per capita carbon emissions and energy consumption of different income groups suggests notable differences in climate change responsibility, and supports policies for achieving sustainable consumption in terms of carbon tax, renewable energy subsidy, and decarbonizing the consumption structure in different LAC countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report summarizes the preliminary analysis of the PRECIS 2.0 simulation results, with an emphasis on the priority concerns of Shanghai municipal government and other local governments in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region, and research gaps in the literature. This study employs two regional climate models (RCMs) that are the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), being driven by HadGEM2‐ES and IPSL‐CM5A, two global circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to investigate the impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation over Eastern China. The capacity of two RCMs and its driving GCMs in reproducing the historical climate during the baseline period (1981–2000) are first evaluated, and then the projections of mean and extreme precipitation over future warming climate period (2041–2060) under the scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are carried out. Our analysis shows that with the improved resolution and better representation of finer‐scale physical processes, WRF and PRECIS downscaling displays obvious advantages over their driving GCMs (IPSL and HadGEM, respectively) in the validation runs. In particular, the two RCMs are able to capture the observed features of spatial distributions of extreme precipitation indices including V95p, R95t, and SDII. The future projections indicate that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 emission scenarios would add further strength to the daily precipitation intensity by 2041–2060. Key Points: This report presents projections of changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Eastern China for the middle of the 21st centuryWe use two regional climate models driven by two global circulation models to reduce the modeling uncertainty [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban pluvial flooding now occurs more frequently than it has in past decades, mainly due to an increasing number of extreme precipitation events occurring in the context of a changing climate. To limit the evolving risks of urban pluvial flooding in a more environmentally friendly manner, the research community has recently paid increasing attention to Nature‐Based Solutions (NBS), which are based on new green technologies. To meet the urgent demand for a comprehensive review of the most recent literature, this review conducts a systematic survey of the literature to characterize various NBS adopted in different regions of the world and to elaborate on the benefits and limitations of such NBS. The review highlights the role of NBS in urban flood risk management under ongoing climate change and rapid urbanization. It shows that NBS could effectively mitigate urban flooding caused by high‐frequency precipitation events, with additional economic, ecological, and social benefits. However, NBS are less effective at helping cope with pluvial flooding caused by extreme precipitation events over a short period of time, while gray infrastructures also have limitations as a mitigation measure against extreme pluvial flooding. We thus recommend identifying flood risk management strategies by evaluating the performance of alternative combinations of NBS with gray infrastructures in preventing pluvial flooding in the cities. Finally, recent advances made in the applications of NBS are presented with suggestions (e.g., long‐term monitoring) to improve urban flood adaptive management. This article is categorized under:Engineering Water > Planning WaterEngineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of WaterScience of Water > Water Extremes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stubbs, Q.; Yeo, I.-Y.; Lang, M.; Townshend, J.; Sun, L.; Prestegaard, K., and Jantz, C., 2020. Assessment of wetland change on the Delmarva Peninsula from 1984 to 2010. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(3), 575–589. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The decline in wetland extent and condition emphasizes the need for sound wetland restoration and conservation policies, which require baseline information on wetland status, change, and change drivers. Multiple wetland maps are available, but they can be quite inconsistent bcause of different input and generation techniques, dates, and objectives. Moderate-resolution (30 m2) regional land-cover data sets (LCDs) were analyzed to (1) quantify historical wetland changes on the Delmarva Peninsula at multiple spatial scales between 1984 and 2010, (2) identify differences in the spatial area of wetland change and discuss the source of and implications for these differences, and (3) investigate the extent to which drivers of wetland change can be identified using existing LCDs. The following regional LCDs were considered: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Chesapeake Bay Land Cover Data Series (CBLCD), and the USGS National Land Cover Database. The C-CAP and CBLCD had the highest spatial agreement at 97%, and an average of 76% spatial agreement with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetland Inventory. The highest percentages of net wetland loss occurred between 1992 and 2001, whereas net wetland gain occurred between 2001 and 2010. Wetlands were predominantly converted (e.g., lost) to croplands/grass/shrubs (67%) and water (11%), which could be linked to drivers such as agriculture and sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The well-known "virtual water hypothesis" states that water-deficient regions/countries could alleviate water stress through importing water-intensive products from water-abundant regions/countries. Although observed trading patterns do often not support this hypothesis, there is a lack of research to explore the reasons why trade patterns often do not support the intuitive virtual water hypothesis. To fill this important gap, we introduce comparative advantage theory in a quantitative way to track the driving forces of net virtual water export based on the spatial-temporal distribution of resource productivity and opportunity costs of land, labor and water use in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors across Chinese provinces between 1995 and 2015. The results show that regional differences in land productivity between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are the main forces determining the pattern of virtual water flows across major regions, and other resources such as labor and water have played only a limited role. Our study shows that the current market forces reflect the scarcity of land resources, but does not reflect the water scarcity in the context of interregional trade in China. Our findings suggest that the ongoing efforts to increase land productivity of agriculture in the southern regions would contribute to reducing water scarcity in the North and Northeast China Plain. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Explains why trade patterns do not support the intuitive virtual water hypothesis. • Virtual water flows are based on comparative advantage of land productivity. • Current market mechanism does not reflect the scarcity of water resources. • Increased land productivity in the south will reduce water scarcity in the north. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Northeast China is the center of maize production in the country. • Assess varying impacts of drought across different maize growth stages in Northeast China. • Probability of extreme events in irrigation water shortage will increase in the future. • Irrigation infrastructure and efficient irrigation scheme and technologies are of great importance. Abstract Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) produces about one-third of the national maize output. Shortage of crop irrigation water is one of the main threat to the stable level of maize production in the NFR. Previous studies on the sensitivity of maize production to drought are typically based on field experiments and treat the maize growing season as a whole, with rare attention to the varying impacts of drought across different maize growth stages. Given the importance of NFR on China's food security, it is crucial to optimize the irrigation schedule to mitigate the adverse effects of drought. In this study, we employ Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model to investigate how climate change affects irrigation water requirement (IWR) of maize during different growth stages and under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that the NFR would experience a substantial increase in the probability of extremely shortage of crop irrigation water under future climate change. The ensemble simulation under future climate projections indicates more frequent demands for irrigation with substantially increased amount in the mid-season stage (G3) when maize is more sensitive to water deficit compared with other stages. These findings indicate that earlier planning of irrigation infrastructure and development of more efficient irrigation scheme and technologies is of great importance to secure maize production in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Food and nutrition security has been a persistent major challenge to human societies and this challenge continues into the 21st century, especially taking into consideration the targets set by the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which call for eradicating hunger (goal 2), ending poverty (goal 1), sustainably managing and using natural resources and ecosystems (goal 15), and combating climate change (goal 13). The way food is consumed and produced affects the human well-being as well as the environment. Avoiding food losses and adopting a balanced healthy diet is also an important step towards sustainability. Promoting dietary standards and monitoring their adoption is a potentially important policy tool for mitigating environmental impacts of food production as well as monitoring food security and nutrition. There is relatively little research to measure nutritional adequacy of food intake according to dietary standards, and to explore the relationship with health outcomes. In this study we choose the well-established WHO global-level dietary recommendations as a reference to quantify nutritional adequacy by developing an energy and macronutrient intake index (ENI), and to assess its relation to indicators of hunger and undernutrition. We find strong negative association between nutritional adequacy of dietary intake and prevalence of undernutrition at national level, and we illustrate that ENI could be an effective tool to inform national food security strategies. Under different future socioeconomic development scenarios, almost all sub-Saharan African countries achieve an adequate per capita energy intake level but their nutritional status varies with many countries deviating from recommended levels because of the unbalanced development of macronutrient intake levels; more improvement exists in fat and energy intake levels and less agreement in fruit-vegetable and animal protein intake levels. Scenario application proves that the relationship between ENI and undernutrition could readily be applied in future scenarios generated by integrated assessment models to provide insights into the impacts of various climate change scenarios, socioeconomic development pathways and alternative global trade policies on global hunger and undernutrition status. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Well-established WHO global-level dietary recommendations were chosen as a reference to assess dietary nutritional adequacy of past and projected future food consumption by development of an energy and macronutrient intake index (ENI). • Statistical analysis reveals a strong negative association between the nutritional adequacy of dietary intake and the prevalence of undernutrition at national level. • Overall, dietary nutritional adequacy of most countries had a significantly increasing trend during 1991–2010. • Under different future socioeconomic development scenarios, almost all sub-Saharan African countries have adequate per capita energy intake but their nutritional status varies with many deviating from recommended levels because of the unbalanced development of macronutrient intake levels; more improvement exists in fat and energy intake levels, and less agreement in fruit-vegetable and animal protein intake levels. • The relationship between ENI and undernutrition could readily be applied in future scenarios generated by integrated assessment models to provide insights into the impact of various scenarios of climate change, socioeconomic development and/or alternative global trade policies on future hunger and undernutrition status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study establishes a procedure to couple Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and China Agroecological Zone model (AEZ-China). This procedure enables us to quantify the effects of two natural adaptation measures on soybean production in China, concern on which has been growing owing to the rapidly rising demand for soybean and the foreseen global climate change. The parameters calibration and mode verification are based on the observation records of soybean growth at 13 agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain over 1981–2011. The calibration of eco-physiological parameters is based on the algorithms of DSSAT that simulate the dynamic bio-physiological processes of crop growth in daily time-step. The effects of shifts in planting day and changes in the length of growth cycle (LGC) are evaluated by the speedy algorithms of AEZ. Results indicate that without adaptation, climate change from the baseline 1961–1990 to the climate of 2050s as specified in the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies-A1B would decrease the potential yield of soybean. By contrast, simulations of DSSAT using AEZ-recommended cultivars with adaptive LGC and also the corresponding adaptive planting dates show that the risk of yield loss could be fully or partially mitigated across majority of grid cells in the major soybean-growing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Households, as consumers of goods and services through their lifestyles and spending choices, drive environmental change. Using a recent (2008) social and environmental survey of Spanish households, we evaluate the effects of improvements in environmental awareness, and of changes induced by regulations and carbon taxes. We consider these drivers of behavioral change for different income levels. A range of scenarios including the adoption of energy efficient appliances, modal shift to public transport, healthier diets, and the associated carbon emissions and job effects, are estimated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that reductions in carbon dioxide, methane, and sulphur dioxide emissions may be compatible with increases in income and reductions in unemployment. Modal shift to public transport is shown as a successful economic and environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S. peaked and declined in the first decade of the 21st century, largely attributed to the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy replacing coal. However, if and to what extent household consumption also played a role in this trend is still debated. Finding demand-side options is necessary to hedge against the risks of technology solutions failing to materialize. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the change in GHG emissions driven by U.S. household consumption, explores the drivers of this change and the contribution of different income groups. To this end, this study combined the U.S. consumer expenditure survey with an environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output framework to analyze changes in GHG emissions induced by household consumption between 2001 and 2015. This study further analyzed how much population, consumption volume and consumption patterns drove emission changes by quintile income groups. The results show that changes in household consumption contributed approximately one-third of the national emission decline. The decline in GHG emissions from U.S. households was mainly associated with a decrease in the consumption of carbon-intensive products, including gasoline, electricity, and animal-based food products. The top quintile income households were the main contributors to the emission increase before the peak, while the third and fourth income quintiles became emission mitigation leaders after 2010. Carbon inequality increased during the 2001–2006 period, mainly driven by increased wealth and consumption of high-income households, and was relatively stable after the peak. Emissions from certain consumption categories of the top quintile group are significantly higher than the bottom four quintiles with increasing trends, especially leisure-related services and goods, which require more attention in future policymaking for emission reduction. • U.S. household consumption contributed approximately one-third to the national GHG emission decline. • Top quintile income households were primary contributors that drove up GHG emissions before 2007. • The change in consumption pattern was the major contributor to emission decline from a household consumption perspective. • Carbon inequality is positively associated with household-driven GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid economic growth and urbanization in China have led to a substantial change in consumption patterns and diet structure of Chinese consumers over the past few decades. A growing demand for feed, fuel, and fiber also places intense pressure on land resources. With continuing growth of China's economy and migration from rural to urban, the increase in food consumption and change in diet structure will likely continue, which will not only impose pressure on domestic land resources, but also exert impact on land resources in other countries through import. This article applies a global multiregion input-output (MRIO) model to trace agricultural land use along global supply chains and examines the impact of China's future food consumption on global land use in 2030 against different socioeconomic and technological scenarios. Our scenarios show that by 2030, China would need an additional 21% of cropland to support its increasing food demand, driven by population growth, urbanization, and income growth and the associated diet structure change. Almost one third of cropland associated with household consumption (34 million hectares [Mha]) will be 'outsourced' to foreign countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and Thailand, for the consumption of cereal grains, soybeans, and paddy rice. China also consumes 2.4 Mha of cropland from Africa for its consumption of cereal grains and oil seeds. The dependence of domestic consumption on significant amounts of foreign cropland shows that China would face serious challenges to meet its grain self-sufficiency policy in the future, and, at the same time, this dependence would contribute to environmental and food security problems elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The serious water scarcity and groundwater over-exploitation problems of the North China Plain (NCP) have aroused worldwide concerns. Achieving a reduction in agricultural water use is critical, because agriculture is the largest water consumer in the NCP. New solutions to these problems may lie in changes in the area sown to winter wheat across the NCP. In this study, the water footprint ( WF ) was applied as an aggregative indicator to evaluate the impact of the changing area sown to winter wheat. A Chinese version of the AEZ model, the China-AEZ model, was used for the evaluation. The results showed: (1) Green water plays a more significant role in winter wheat production in the southern part of the NCP than in the north; about a half of the water requirements for winter wheat are met by green water in the southern part of the NCP, compared to only a third in the north. (2) As a result of the north–south shift in the area sown to winter wheat during the period 1998–2011, the WF , the green water footprint ( WF green ) and the surface water footprint ( W F b l u e s ) for winter wheat increased, respectively, by 459 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (0.9%), by 973 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (4.2%) and by 47 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (0.5%), whereas the groundwater footprint ( W F b l u e g ) diminished by 561 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 (3.4%). The contribution of green water also increased, from 46.3% in 1998 to 47.8% in 2011, concurrent with the changes in the area sown to winter wheat. (3) The Hebei Plain, in the northern part of the NCP, conserved 1856 × 10 6 m 3 yr −1 of blue water footprint ( WF blue ) for winter wheat during the period 1998–2011, equivalent to about one third of the total amount of water supplied by the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRP) in 2010. By comparison, WF and its components all increased in the southern provinces of the NCP. The diminishing requirement for groundwater and the increasing role of green water in winter wheat production encourage policies aimed at the further optimization of agricultural land use and the achievement of integrated blue-green water management in the NCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As population and consumption grow, so does crop production and its residue. Crop residue is traditionally burned in developing countries, which impacts environment, economy, society and health. Thailand faces similar challenges as it is among the largest producers of rice paddy and sugarcane in the world with 83% of its total burnt residue coming from these crops. To address this problem, the Government of Thailand has implemented some policies (e.g. Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) and zero burning policy for sugarcane) targeting both, the use of residue, and the practice of burning. While these policies appear to control residue burning to some extent, there are still challenges, especially for poorer farmers, who rely on manual harvesting practices. The paper looks into the current status of rice and sugarcane residue burning, its impacts on the environment, existing policies, current challenges, and future solutions through sustainable management practices. To achieve reduction in residue burning, the best possible solution is to use residue for alternative purposes. Some sustainable management practices include use of residue for energy production, green harvesting to improve soil nutrients, biochar production and composting. Thailand can also learn from solutions implemented in other countries, to reduce some of the impacts of crop residue burning. • Crop residue burning has major impacts on environment, economy, society and health. • 83% of its total burnt residue in Thailand comes from rice and sugarcane. • We investigate the scope of limiting crop residue burning in Thailand. • Some Thai government policies target crop residue burning, yet challenges remain. • Residue use for other purposes is the best solution to reduce residue burning.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The front cover image is based on the Overview Nature‐based solutions for urban pluvial flood risk management, Zhan Tian et al., https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1421 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]