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Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures, 38th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2024)

In the field of weather forecasting, traditional models often grapple with discretization errors and time-dependent source discrepancies, which limit their predictive performance. In this paper, we present WeatherODE, a novel one-stage, physics-driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model designed to enhance weather forecasting accuracy. By leveraging wave equation theory and integrating a time-dependent source model, WeatherODE effectively addresses the challenges associated with time-discretization error and dynamic atmospheric processes. Moreover, we design a CNN-ViT-CNN sandwich structure, facilitating efficient learning dynamics tailored for distinct yet interrelated tasks with varying optimization biases in advection equation estimation. Through rigorous experiments, WeatherODE demonstrates superior performance in both global and regional weather forecasting tasks, outperforming recent state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins of over 40.0\% and 31.8\% in root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/WeatherODE}.

Time series forecasting has played a significant role in many practical fields. But time series data generated from real-world applications always exhibits high variance and lots of noise, which makes it difficult to capture the inherent periodic patterns of the data, hurting the prediction accuracy significantly. To address this issue, we propose the Esiformer, which apply interpolation on the original data, decreasing the overall variance of the data and alleviating the influence of noise. What's more, we enhanced the vanilla transformer with a robust Sparse FFN. It can enhance the representation ability of the model effectively, and maintain the excellent robustness, avoiding the risk of overfitting compared with the vanilla implementation. Through evaluations on challenging real-world datasets, our method outperforms leading model PatchTST, reducing MSE by 6.5% and MAE by 5.8% in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/yyg1282142265/Esiformer/tree/main.

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

Fuzzing is an important dynamic program analysis technique designed for finding vulnerabilities in complex software. Fuzzing involves presenting a target program with crafted malicious input to cause crashes, buffer overflows, memory errors, and exceptions. Crafting malicious inputs in an efficient manner is a difficult open problem and the best approaches often apply uniform random mutations to pre-existing valid inputs. In this work, we propose to adopt fine-tuned large language models (FuzzCoder) to learn patterns in the input files from successful attacks to guide future fuzzing explorations. Specifically, we develop a framework to leverage the code LLMs to guide the mutation process of inputs in fuzzing. The mutation process is formulated as the sequence-to-sequence modeling, where LLM receives a sequence of bytes and then outputs the mutated byte sequence. FuzzCoder is fine-tuned on the created instruction dataset (Fuzz-Instruct), where the successful fuzzing history is collected from the heuristic fuzzing tool. FuzzCoder can predict mutation locations and strategies locations in input files to trigger abnormal behaviors of the program. Experimental results show that FuzzCoder based on AFL (American Fuzzy Lop) gain significant improvements in terms of effective proportion of mutation (EPM) and number of crashes (NC) for various input formats including ELF, JPG, MP3, and XML., Comment: 11 pages

The recently proposed machine learning-based physically-constrained nonlocal (MPN) kinetic energy density functional (KEDF) can be used for simple metals and their alloys [Phys. Rev. B 109, 115135 (2024)]. However, the MPN KEDF does not perform well for semiconductors. Here we propose a multi-channel MPN (CPN) KEDF, which extends the MPN KEDF to semiconductors by integrating information collected from multiple channels, with each channel featuring a specific length scale in real space. The CPN KEDF is systematically tested on silicon and binary semiconductors. We find that the multi-channel design for KEDF is beneficial for machine-learning-based models in capturing the characteristics of semiconductors, particularly in handling covalent bonds. In particular, the CPN5 KEDF, which utilizes five channels, demonstrates excellent accuracy across all tested systems. These results offer a new path for generating KEDFs for semiconductors., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures

The Lyman-alpha Solar Telescope (LST) on board the Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory (ASO-S) is the first payload to image the full solar disk and the solar corona in both white-light (WL) and ultraviolet (UV) H I Lya, extending up to 2.5 solar radii (Rs). Since the launch of the ASO-S on 9 October 2022, LST has captured various significant solar activities including flares, prominences, coronal mass ejections (CMEs). LST covers different passbands of 121.6 nm, 360 nm and 700 nm. The Lya Solar Disk Imager (SDI) has a field of view (FOV) of 38.4 arcmin and a spatial resolution of around 9.5 arcsec, while the White-Light Solar Telescope (WST) has a FOV of 38.43 arcmin and a spatial resolution of around 3.0 arcsec. The FOV of the Lya Solar Corona Imager (SCI) reaches 81.1 arcmin and its spatial resolution is 4.3 arcsec. The stray-light level in the 700 nm waveband is about 7.8e-6 MSB (mean solar brightness) at 1.1 Rs and 7.6e-7 MSB at 2.5 Rs, and in the Lya waveband it is around 4.3e-3 MSB at 1.1 Rs and 4.1e-4 MSB at 2.5 Rs. This article will detail the results from on-orbit tests and calibrations., Comment: Solar Physics (ASO-S mission topical collection), accepted

Weather disaster related emergency operations pose a great challenge to air mobility in both aircraft and airport operations, especially when the impact is gradually approaching. We propose an optimized framework for adjusting airport operational schedules for such pre-disaster scenarios. We first, aggregate operational data from multiple airports and then determine the optimal count of evacuation flights to maximize the impacted airport's outgoing capacity without impeding regular air traffic. We then propose a novel Neural Network (NN) accelerated Genetic Algorithm(GA) for evacuation planning. Our experiments show that integration yielded comparable results but with smaller computational overhead. We find that the utilization of a NN enhances the efficiency of a GA, facilitating more rapid convergence even when operating with a reduced population size. This effectiveness persists even when the model is trained on data from airports different from those under test., Comment: 7 pages, 8 figures, ITSC 2024

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures

Few-shot semantic segmentation (FSS) endeavors to segment unseen classes with only a few labeled samples. Current FSS methods are commonly built on the assumption that their training and application scenarios share similar domains, and their performances degrade significantly while applied to a distinct domain. To this end, we propose to leverage the cutting-edge foundation model, the Segment Anything Model (SAM), for generalization enhancement. The SAM however performs unsatisfactorily on domains that are distinct from its training data, which primarily comprise natural scene images, and it does not support automatic segmentation of specific semantics due to its interactive prompting mechanism. In our work, we introduce APSeg, a novel auto-prompt network for cross-domain few-shot semantic segmentation (CD-FSS), which is designed to be auto-prompted for guiding cross-domain segmentation. Specifically, we propose a Dual Prototype Anchor Transformation (DPAT) module that fuses pseudo query prototypes extracted based on cycle-consistency with support prototypes, allowing features to be transformed into a more stable domain-agnostic space. Additionally, a Meta Prompt Generator (MPG) module is introduced to automatically generate prompt embeddings, eliminating the need for manual visual prompts. We build an efficient model which can be applied directly to target domains without fine-tuning. Extensive experiments on four cross-domain datasets show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art CD-FSS method by 5.24% and 3.10% in average accuracy on 1-shot and 5-shot settings, respectively., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures

The newly deployed service -- one kind of change service, could lead to a new type of minority fault. Existing state-of-the-art methods for fault localization rarely consider the imbalanced fault classification in change service. This paper proposes a novel method that utilizes decision rule sets to deal with highly imbalanced data by optimizing the F1 score subject to cardinality constraints. The proposed method greedily generates the rule with maximal marginal gain and uses an efficient minorize-maximization (MM) approach to select rules iteratively, maximizing a non-monotone submodular lower bound. Compared with existing fault localization algorithms, our algorithm can adapt to the imbalanced fault scenario of change service, and provide interpretable fault causes which are easy to understand and verify. Our method can also be deployed in the online training setting, with only about 15% training overhead compared to the current SOTA methods. Empirical studies showcase that our algorithm outperforms existing fault localization algorithms in both accuracy and model interpretability.

Possible light bosonic dark matter interactions with the Standard Model photon have been searched by microwave resonant cavities. In this paper, we demonstrate the cryogenic readout system calibration of a 7.138 GHz copper cavity with a loaded quality factor $Q_l=10^4$, operated at 22 mK temperature based on a dilution refrigerator. Our readout system consists of High Electron Mobility Transistors as cryogenic amplifiers at 4 K, plus room-temperature amplifiers and a spectrum analyzer for signal power detection. We test the system with a superconducting two-level system as a single-photon source in the microwave frequency regime and report an overall 95.6 dB system gain and -71.4 dB attenuation in the cavity's input channel. The effective noise temperature of the measurement system is 7.5 K., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, version to appear in CPC

The dark photon is a promising candidate for the dark matter which comprises most of the matter in our visible Universe. Via kinetic mixing with the Standard Model it can also be resonantly converted to photons in an electromagnetic cavity, offering novel experimental possibilities for the discovery and study of dark matter. We report the results of a pathfinder dark photon dark matter cavity search experiment performed at Hunan Normal University and the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, representing the first stage of the APEX (Axion and dark Photon EXperiment) program. Finding no statistically significant excess, we place an upper limit on the kinetic mixing parameter $|\chi|<3.7\times 10^{-13}$ around $m_A\simeq 29.5$ $\mu$eV at 90% confidence level. This result exceeds other constraints on dark photon dark matter in this frequency range by roughly an order of magnitude., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Updated to match journal version

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$., Comment: 7 figures, 14 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2309.12659

Superconductors play a crucial role in the advancement of high-field electromagnets. Unfortunately, their performance can be compromised by thermomagnetic instabilities, wherein the interplay of rapid magnetic and slow heat diffusion can result in catastrophic flux jumps eventually leading to irreversible damage. This issue has long plagued high-$J_c$ Nb$_3$Sn wires at the core of high-field magnets. In this study, we introduce a groundbreaking large-scale GPU-optimized algorithm aimed at tackling the complex intertwined effects of electromagnetism, heating, and strain acting concomitantly during the quenching process of superconducting coils. We validate our model by conducting comparisons with magnetization measurements obtained from short multifilamentary Nb$_3$Sn wires and further experimental tests conducted on solenoid coils while subject to ramping transport currents. Furthermore, leveraging our developed numerical algorithm, we unveil the dynamic propagation mechanisms underlying thermomagnetic instabilities (including flux jumps and quenches) within the coils. Remarkably, our findings reveal that the velocity field of flux jumps and quenches within the coil is correlated with the amount of Joule heating experienced by each wire over a specific time interval, rather than solely being dependent on instantaneous Joule heating or maximum temperature. These insights have the potential to pave the way for optimizing the design of next-generation superconducting magnets, thereby directly influencing a wide array of technologically relevant and multidisciplinary applications.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a capacity of over 15GW.

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism, dynamically fusing embeddings to enhance data representation, often relegating attention weights to a byproduct role. Yet, time series data, characterized by noise and non-stationarity, poses significant forecasting challenges. Our approach elevates attention weights as the primary representation for time series, capitalizing on the temporal relationships among data points to improve forecasting accuracy. Our study shows that an attention map, structured using global landmarks and local windows, acts as a robust kernel representation for data points, withstanding noise and shifts in distribution. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models, reducing mean squared error (MSE) in multivariate time series forecasting by a notable 3.6% without altering the core neural network architecture. It serves as a versatile component that can readily replace recent patching based embedding schemes in transformer-based models, boosting their performance.

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF., Comment: Accepted by the 12th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2024)

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical parametrization process, and computation limitation. With the roaring growth of deep learning-based techniques, we propose the Dual-Stage Adaptive Framework (DSAF), a novel framework to address regional NWP downscaling and bias correction tasks. DSAF uniquely incorporates adaptive elements in its design to ensure a flexible response to evolving weather conditions. Specifically, NWP downscaling and correction are well-decoupled in the framework and can be applied independently, which strategically guides the optimization trajectory of the model. Utilizing a multi-task learning mechanism and an uncertainty-weighted loss function, DSAF facilitates balanced training across various weather factors. Additionally, our specifically designed attention-centric learnable module effectively integrates geographic information, proficiently managing complex interrelationships. Experimental validation on the ECMWF operational forecast (HRES) and reanalysis (ERA5) archive demonstrates DSAF's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art models and shows substantial improvements when existing models are augmented using our proposed modules. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/pengwei07/DSAF.

We present an approach to estimate the operational distinguishability between an entangled state and any separable state directly from measuring an entanglement witness. We show that this estimation also implies bounds on a variety of other well-known entanglement quantifiers. This approach for entanglement estimation is then extended to to both the measurement-device-independent scenario and the fully device-independent scenario, where we obtain non-trivial but sub-optimal bounds. The procedure requires no numerical optimization and is easy to compute. It offers ways for experimenters to not only detect, but also quantify, entanglement from the standard entanglement witness procedure.

Spatio-temporal forecasting, pivotal in numerous fields, hinges on the delicate equilibrium between isolating nuanced patterns and sifting out noise. To tackle this, we introduce Sparse Regression-based Vector Quantization (SVQ), a novel technique that leverages sparse regression for succinct representation, an approach theoretically and practically favored over classical clustering-based vector quantization methods. This approach preserves critical details from the original vectors using a regression model while filtering out noise via sparse design. Moreover, we approximate the sparse regression process using a blend of a two-layer MLP and an extensive codebook. This approach not only substantially cuts down on computational costs but also grants SVQ differentiability and training simplicity, resulting in a notable enhancement of performance. Our empirical studies on five spatial-temporal benchmark datasets demonstrate that SVQ achieves state-of-the-art results. Specifically, on the WeatherBench-S temperature dataset, SVQ improves the top baseline by 7.9%. In video prediction benchmarks-Human, KTH, and KittiCaltech-it reduces MAE by an average of 9.4% and improves image quality by 17.3% (LPIPS).

Understanding the quantitative relation between entanglement and Bell nonlocality is a longstanding open problem of both fundamental and practical interest. Here we provide a general approach to address this issue. Starting with an observation that entanglement measures, while defined dramatically different in mathematics, are basically the distances between the state of interest and its closest separable state, we relate this minimal distance between states with distance-based Bell nonlocality, namely, the minimal distance between correlation of interest with respect to the set of classical correlations. This establishes the quantitative relation between entanglement and Bell nonlocality, leading to the bounds for entanglement in various contexts. Our approach enjoys the merits of: (i) generality, it applies to any Bell's scenario without requiring the information of devices and to many entanglement measures, (ii) faithfulness, it gives a non-trivial entanglement estimation from any nonlocal correlation.