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[Aim] Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain., [Location] Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. [Time period] From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. [Taxa] Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. [Methods] Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. [Results] Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. [Main conclusion] Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems., Fieldwork at Manú was conducted under the permits 041-2010-AG-DGFFSDGEFFS, 008-2011-AG-DGFFS-DGEFFS, 01-C/C-2010SERNANP-JPNM and 01-2011-SERNANP-PNM-JEF and supported by a scholarship from the German Academic Exchange Service to D.M.D. D.M.D. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant number 787638) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 173342), both awarded to C. H. Graham. W.D.K. acknowledges a Global Ecology grant from the University of Amsterdam Faculty Research Cluster. I.D. was funded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and is now supported by the Balearic Government. S.A.F. was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG; FR 3246/2-2) and the Leibniz Competition of the Leibniz Association (P52/2017).

Aim: How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait-based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species.Location: A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south-east Peru.Methods: We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait-based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes).Results: We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait-based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity were not related across species.Main conclusions: These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait-based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages.

Species interactions are influenced by the trait structure of local multi-trophic communities. However, it remains unclear whether mutualistic interactions in particular can drive trait patterns at the global scale, where climatic constraints and biogeographic processes gain importance. Here we evaluate global relationships between traits of frugivorous birds and palms (Arecaceae), and how these relationships are affected, directly or indirectly, by assemblage richness, climate and biogeographic history. We leverage a new and expanded gape size dataset for nearly all avian frugivores, and find a positive relationship between gape size and fruit size, that is, trait matching, which is influenced indirectly by palm richness and climate. We also uncover a latitudinal gradient in trait matching strength, which increases towards the tropics and varies among zoogeographic realms. Taken together, our results suggest trophic interactions have consistent influences on trait structure, but that abiotic, biogeographic and richness effects also play important, though sometimes indirect, roles in shaping the functional biogeography of mutualisms.

The question of whether migratory birds track a specific climatic niche by seasonal movements has important implications for understanding the evolution of migration, the factors affecting species' distributions, and the responses of migrants to climate change. Despite much research, previous studies of bird migration have produced mixed results. However, whether migrants track climate is only one half of the question, the other being why residents remain in the same geographic range year‐round. We provide a literature overview and test the hypothesis of seasonal niche tracking by evaluating seasonal climatic niche overlap across 437 migratory and resident species from eight clades of passerine birds. Seasonal climatic niches were based on a new global dataset of breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Overlap between climatic niches was quantified using ordination methods. We compared niche overlap of migratory species to two null expectations, (a) a scenario in which they do not migrate and (b) in comparison with the overlap experienced by closely related resident species, while controlling for breeding location and range size. Partly in accordance with the hypothesis of niche tracking, we found that the overlap of breeding versus nonbreeding climatic conditions in migratory species was greater than the overlap they would experience if they did not migrate. However, this was only true for migrants breeding outside the tropics and only relative to the overlap species would experience if they stayed in the breeding range year‐round. In contrast to the hypothesis of niche tracking, migratory species experienced lower seasonal climatic niche overlap than resident species, with significant differences between tropical and nontropical species. Our study suggests that in seasonal nontropical environments migration away from the breeding range may serve to avoid seasonally harsh climate; however, different factors may drive seasonal movements in the climatically more stable tropical regions., By examining seasonal niche overlap in migratory and resident bird species, we show that niche tracking varies depending on (a) the perspective in which the question was examined (i.e., from the perspective of the individual migrant or in comparison with resident species, (b) the direction of migration (i.e., whether the species is moving from the breeding or non‐breeding range), and (c) geographic location. Altogether, these results suggest that the drivers of migration vary depending on direction of migration as well as geographically, offering explanations for the mixed results from previous studies.

Although the links between species richness and diversification rates with clade age have been studied extensively, few studies have investigated the relationship between the rates of trait evolution and clade age. The rate of morphological trait evolution has repeatedly been shown to vary through time, as expected, for example, for adaptive radiations, but the strength and sources of this variation are not well understood. We compare the relationship between the rates of trait evolution and clade age across eight monophyletic clades of passerine birds by investigating ecomorphological traits, i.e. morphological traits that influence the ecology of the species directly. We study the ecomorphological divergence pattern using analyses of the disparity through time and determine the best-fitting model of evolution for each trait in each clade. We find no support for a consistent dependence of evolutionary rates on clade age across wing, tail, tarsus and beak shape in our eight clades and also show that early burst models of trait evolution are rarely the best-fitting models within these clades. These results suggest that key innovations or adaptive radiations might be less common evolutionary patterns and processes than generally thought or might depend on the taxonomic level investigated.

Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro‐Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René‐Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias (2022): AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds. Ecology Letters 25 (3): 581-597, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13898, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898

SummaryThe establishment and maintenance of protected areas (PAs) is viewed as a key action in delivering post-2020 biodiversity targets. PAs often need to meet multiple objectives, ranging from biodiversity protection to ecosystem service provision and climate change mitigation, but available land and conservation funding is limited. Therefore, optimizing resources by selecting the most beneficial PAs is vital. Here, we advocate for a flexible and transparent approach to selecting protected areas based on multiple objectives, and illustrate this with a decision support tool on a global scale. The tool allows weighting and prioritization of different conservation objectives according to user-specified preferences, as well as real-time comparison of the selected areas that result from such different priorities. We apply the tool across 1347 terrestrial PAs and highlight frequent trade-offs among different objectives, e.g., between species protection and ecosystem integrity. Outputs indicate that decision makers frequently face trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Nevertheless, we show that transparent decision-support tools can reveal synergies and trade-offs associated with PA selection, thereby helping to illuminate and resolve land-use conflicts embedded in divergent societal and political demands and values.

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.

AIM: We advocate an interdisciplinary approach to biogeography, integrating geology and paleobiology to examine how biodiversity dynamics evolved as mountain ranges formed through (geological) time. LOCATION: Global; case study: Anatolia (Turkey). METHODS: We discuss the links between surface uplift and biodiversity dynamics and review recent developments for reconstructing the history of geography and biodiversity. To illustrate an integrative approach to biogeography, we present a case study of Neogene Anatolia. In particular, we reconstruct Anatolian paleogeography based on a synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative evidence, and review the fossil record of the regional flora and fauna, to identify changes in compositions that might be induced by surface uplift and associated environmental changes. RESULTS: The Central Anatolian Plateau and its mountainous margins display different histories of surface uplift during the late Miocene to Pliocene, which are detectable in the regional fossil record of large mammals. Overall changes in vegetation and climatic conditions for the whole region also align with the general time frame of surface uplift. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our discussion and case study highlight the value of an integrative biogeographic framework, by combining knowledge and techniques from geology and paleobiology to simultaneously consider the biotic and environmental dynamics in space and time. Neogene surface uplift in Anatolia has affected the regional biota, particularly the diversity of plants and large mammals, along with well‐known global and regional changes in climate and other environmental factors. To disentangle the effects of different, but most likely interactive environmental changes at various scales, we call for rigorous examination of the geological record in a biogeographic framework, using innovative methods to uncover how environmental and biotic processes have shaped mountain biodiversity.

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and impacts on species distributions and abundances are already evident. Heterogenous responses of species due to varying abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate these impacts through changes in species assemblages. Here we investigate the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird distributions and, subsequently, on species richness as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity of species assemblages across the globe. We go beyond previous work by disentangling the potential impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity of species gains vs. losses under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes.We show that climate change might not only affect species numbers and composition of global species assemblages but could also have profound impacts on assemblage phylogenetic diversity, which, across extensive areas, differ significantly from random changes. Both the projected impacts on phylogenetic diversity and on phylogenetic structure vary greatly across the globe. Projected increases in the evolutionary history contained within species assemblages, associated with either increasing phylogenetic diversification or clustering, are most frequent at high northern latitudes. By contrast, projected declines in evolutionary history, associated with increasing phylogenetic over-dispersion or homogenisation, are projected across all continents.The projected widespread changes in the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages show that changes in species richness do not fully reflect the potential threat from climate change to ecosystems. Our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity and structure of species assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments and the value of integrating species-specific responses into assessments of entire community changes.

Quantifying the interactions between tectonics and Earth surface processes on orogenic plateaus requires the acquisition of a multitude of field observations and geological proxies. Here, we reconstruct the topographic development of the Central Anatolian Plateau (Turkey), identify the geodynamic drivers of plateau formation, and constrain the climatic boundary conditions that shaped the fluvio-lacustrine basins, drainage integration, and vegetation and biodiversity dynamics.Our comprehensive dataset includes sedimentological and field observations, 40Ar/39Ar ages, magnetostratigraphy, lacustrine carbonate δ18O and δ13C data (n=665) from thirteen sections in upper Oligocene to Pliocene continental basins of the CAP interior, and 10Be erosion rates. We also analyze existing fossil faunal (mammal) and floral databases to assess biodiversity dynamics through time and we model isostatic rebound to understand drainage integration.The CAP and its steep, southern Tauride margin emerged from the Mediterranean Sea ~12-11 Ma and ~8-7 Ma ago, respectively. Contemporaneously to surface uplift, a fluvio-lacustrine system covered extensive parts of the rising CAP. Today, the semi-arid CAP interior − except for the Konya Closed Catchment (KCC) − drains towards the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Persian Gulf.Our stable isotope paleoaltimetry data show similar-to-present elevations (~2 km) of the southern CAP margin by 5 Ma. Surface uplift affected the diversity of plants and large mammals, and was coeval with ignimbritic magmatism, forearc shortening and distributed compression. We suggest that removal of lithospheric mantle below Anatolia led to surface uplift of the CAP interior, followed by surface uplift of the southern CAP margin as a result of subduction-related crustal thickening. Persistently (>1 Myr) stable paleoenvironmental and hydrological conditions recorded by the former fluvio-lacustrine Anatolian depocenters suggest that a low-relief environment characterized the CAP during plateau uplift. Throughout the late Miocene, various open and closed lakes of the southern CAP drained into closed, terminal lakes within the plateau interior. Sedimentation east of the Tuz Gölü Fault ceased rapidly during the early Pliocene (from 5.3-3.6 Ma), when river incision led to a connection with marine base level. Analysis of incision patterns reveals that drainage integration was not driven by capture of the interior drainage by aggressive rivers draining the plateau margin, but rather by top-down avulsion or overflow due to the establishment of a more positive water balance in some of the closed catchments of the plateau interior. Drainage integration occurred shortly after the switch from regional compression to extension and the onset of escape tectonics of the new Anatolian microplate, when fault partitioning of the existing low-relief plateau interior may have led to drainage integration.In a next step to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions of the CAP, we obtain δ18O and δ13C values from fossil mammal tooth enamel, which allows for the reconstruction of mammalian diet, and in turn reflects paleovegetation, as well as seasonality for the Mio-Pliocene climate.ReferencesMeijers et al., 2018a: Palaeo3, doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.03.001Meijers et al., 2018b: EPSL, doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.05.040Huang, Meijers et al., 2019: J of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/jbi.13622Meijers et al., 2020: Geosphere, doi: 10.1130/GES02135.1

Speciation is thought to be predominantly driven by the geographical separation of populations of the ancestral species. Yet, in the marine realm, there is substantial biological diversity despite a lack of pronounced geographical barriers. Here, we investigate this paradox by considering the biogeography of marine mammals: cetaceans (whales and dolphins) and pinnipeds (seals and sea lions). We test for associations between past evolutionary diversification and current geographical distributions, after accounting for the potential effects of current environmental conditions. In general, cetacean lineages are widely dispersed and show few signs of geographically driven speciation, albeit with some notable exceptions. Pinnipeds, by contrast, show a more mixed pattern, with true seals (phocids) tending to be dispersed, whereas eared seals (otariids) are more geographically clustered. Both cetaceans and pinnipeds show strong evidence for environmental clustering of their phylogenetic lineages in relation to factors such as sea temperature, the extent of sea ice, and nitrate concentrations. Overall, current marine mammal biogeography is not indicative of geographical speciation mechanisms, with environmental factors being more important determinants of current taxonomic distributions. However, geographical isolation appears to have played a role in some important taxa, with evidence from the fossil record showing good support for these cases.

Recent years have seen an exponential increase in the amount of data available in all sciences and application domains. Macroecology is part of this "Big Data" trend, with a strong rise in the volume of data that we are using for our research. Here, we summarize the most recent developments in macroecology in the age of Big Data that were presented at the 2018 annual meeting of the Specialist Group Macroecology of the Ecological Society of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (Gfo). Supported by computational advances, macroecology has been a rapidly developing field over recent years. Our meeting highlighted important avenues for further progress in terms of standardized data collection, data integration, method development and process integration. In particular, we focus on (a) important data gaps and new initiatives to close them, for example through space- and airborne sensors, (b) how various data sources and types can be integrated, (c) how uncertainty can be assessed in data-driven analyses and (d) how Big Data and machine learning approaches have opened new ways of investigating processes rather than simply describing patterns. We discuss how Big Data opens up new opportunities, but also poses new challenges to macroecological research. In the future, it will be essential to carefully assess data quality, the reproducibility of data compilation and analytical methods, and the communication of uncertainties. Major progress in the field will depend on the definition of data standards and workflows for macroecology, such that scientific quality and integrity are guaranteed, and collaboration in research projects is made easier.

Linking pattern to process across spatial and temporal scales has been a key goal of the field of biogeography. In January 2017, the 8th biennial conference of the International Biogeography Society sponsored a symposium on Building up biogeography—process to pattern that aimed to review progress towards this goal. Here we present a summary of the symposium, in which we identified promising areas of current research and suggested future research directions. We focus on (1) emerging types of data such as behavioural observations and ancient DNA, (2) how to better incorporate historical data (such as fossils) to move beyond what we term “footprint measures” of past dynamics and (3) the role that novel modelling approaches (e.g. maximum entropy theory of ecology and approximate Bayesian computation) and conceptual frameworks can play in the unification of disciplines. We suggest that the gaps separating pattern and process are shrinking, and that we can better bridge these aspects by considering the dimensions of space and time simultaneously.

Due to concerns about data quality, McKechnie, Coe, Gerson, and Wolf (2016) questioned the conclusions of our study (Khaliq et al., 2015) published in this journal. Here, we argue that most of the questioned data points are in fact useful for macrophysiological analyses, mostly because the vast majority of data are explicitly reported in the peer-reviewed physiological literature. Furthermore, we show that our conclusions remain largely robust irrespective of the data inclusion criterion. While we think that constructive debates about the adequate use of primary data in meta-studies as well as more transparency in data inclusion criteria are indeed useful, we also emphasize that data suitability should be evaluated in the light of the scope and scale of the study in which they are used. We hope that this discussion will not discourage the exchange between disciplines such as biogeography and physiology, as this integration is needed to address some of the most urgent scientific challenges.

Plant–animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.

Aim Despite the central role of species distributions in ecology and conservation, occurrence information remains geographically and taxonomically incomplete and biased. Efforts to address this problem, such as targeted data mobilization and advanced distribution modelling, all crucially rely on a solid understanding of the patterns and determinants of occurrence information. Numerous socio-economic and ecological drivers of uneven record collection and mobilization among species have been suggested, but the generality of their effects remains untested. Here, we provide the first global analysis of patterns and drivers of species-level variation in different metrics of occurrence information. Location Global, including separate analyses for six zoogeographical realms. Methods We evaluated three alternative metrics of occurrence information: (1) the record count per species, (2) the coverage of a range with records and (3) the geographical bias in how the records represent different range parts. To this end, we developed scale-independent metrics of range coverage and geographical record bias. We applied the three metrics to 2.8 million point-occurrence records and extent-of-occurrence range maps of 3625 mammalian species. We used multi-model inference to evaluate 13 putative drivers of species-level variation in data availability. Results All three metrics of occurrence information revealed severe species-level biases. These data limitations were mainly linked to range size and shape, and the within-range geography of socio-economic conditions. Species attributes related to detection and collection probabilities, such as body size or diurnality, were remarkably weak predictors of record count and range coverage. Main conclusions Species-level biases in mobilized occurrence information hamper its broader application in basic and applied biodiversity research. To successfully account for these limitations, the site-specific socio-economic constraints to record collection and mobilization, rather than species-specific constraints to detection, should be explicitly incorporated into ecological models. Furthermore, our results strongly suggest that range-restricted species should be prioritized in future data mobilization efforts.

The use of phylogenies in ecology is increasingly common and has broadened our understanding of biological diversity. Ecological sub-disciplines, particularly conservation, community ecology and macroecology, all recognize the value of evolutionary relationships but the resulting development of phylogenetic approaches has led to a proliferation of phylogenetic diversity metrics. The use of many metrics across the sub-disciplines hampers potential meta-analyses, syntheses, and generalizations of existing results. Further, there is no guide for selecting the appropriate metric for a given question, and different metrics are frequently used to address similar questions. To improve the choice, application, and interpretation of phylo-diversity metrics, we organize existing metrics by expanding on a unifying framework for phylogenetic information. Generally, questions about phylogenetic relationships within or between assemblages tend to ask three types of question: how much; how different; or how regular? We show that these questions reflect three dimensions of a phylogenetic tree: richness, divergence, and regularity. We classify 70 existing phylo-diversity metrics based on their mathematical form within these three dimensions and identify ‘anchor’ representatives: for α-diversity metrics these are PD (Faith's phylogenetic diversity), MPD (mean pairwise distance), and VPD (variation of pairwise distances). By analysing mathematical formulae and using simulations, we use this framework to identify metrics that mix dimensions, and we provide a guide to choosing and using the most appropriate metrics. We show that metric choice requires connecting the research question with the correct dimension of the framework and that there are logical approaches to selecting and interpreting metrics. The guide outlined herein will help researchers navigate the current jungle of indices.

International audience; The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely debated patterns in ecology and evolution, associated with hundreds of papers, dozens of hypotheses, and disagreements about its underlying processes. The lack of agreement stems from 1) the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, 2) the failure to mechanistically integrate all relevant ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and 3) the degree to which many empirical patterns are consistent with multiple LDG explanations. We show how mapping LDG hypotheses to a set of key ecological and evolutionary processes leads to a better understanding of the internal logic of those hypotheses. The codification of those processes within a mechanistic eco-evolutionary model is essential for contrasting support for hypotheses and for understanding the relative importance of the processes themselves.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-26T17:44:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-01-26 Robert Bosch Foundation Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission. Senckenberg Gesell Naturforsch, Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, D-60325 Frankfurt, Main, Germany Goethe Univ, Dept Biol Sci, D-60438 Frankfurt, Main, Germany Univ Maryland, Dept Biol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA Univ Maryland, SESYNC, Annapolis, MD 21401 USA Univ Guelph, Dept Integrat Biol, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada Norwegian Inst Nat Res, POB 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC 27708 USA Duke Univ, Dept Evolut Anthropol, Durham, NC 27708 USA Hirola Conservat Programme, Garissa, Kenya Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Wildlife Fish & Environm Studies, S-90183 Umea, Sweden Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Anim Ecol & Physiol, Inst Water & Wetland Res, NL-6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands Univ Fed Mato Grosso do Sul, Ecol & Conservat Grad Program, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil Univ Alberta, Dept Biol Sci, Edmonton, AB, Canada Univ London, Royal Vet Coll, Struct & Motion Lab, London NW1 0TU, England Wildlife Conservat Soc, Mongolia Program, Ulaanbaatar, Mongol Peo Rep Mississippi State Univ, Forest & Wildlife Res Ctr, Carnivore Ecol Lab, Box 9690, Mississippi State, MS USA Sao Paulo State Univ, Anim Biol Postgra Program, BR-15054000 Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil Michigan Dept Nat Resources, 1990 US 41 South, Marquette, MI 49855 USA Univ Calif Davis, Dept Anthropol, Davis, CA 95616 USA Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark Max Planck Inst Ornithol, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell am Bodensee, Germany Wildlife Conservat Soc, Bronx, NY 10460 USA Univ Potsdam, Plant Ecol & Nat Conservat, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany Middle Tennessee State Univ, Dept Biol, Murfreesboro, TN 37132 USA Univ Pretoria, Dept Zool & Entomol, Mammal Res Inst, ZA-0028 Gauteng, South Africa Fdn Edmund Mach, Res & Innovat Ctr, Dept Biodivers & Mol Ecol, I-38010 San Michele All Adige, TN, Italy Harvard Univ, Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Natl Zool Pk, Smithsonian Conservat Biol Inst, Front Royal, VA USA Univ Evora, Depat Fitotecn, P-7002554 Evora, Portugal Univ Evora, ICAAM, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Environm Sci, Evora, Portugal Univ Montpellier, Univ Paul Valery Montpellier, CNRS,EPHE, Ctr Ecol Fonctionnelle & Evolut,UMR 5175, F-34293 Montpellier 5, France Phillip Isl Nat Parks, Cowes, Vic, Australia Monash Univ, Sch Biol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia Ohio State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Geodet Engn, Columbus, OH 43210 USA Fiji Natl Univ, Dept Biol, POB 5529, Natabua, Lautoka, Fiji Univ Massachusetts, US Geol Survey, Massachusetts Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, Amherst, MA 01003 USA Penn State Univ, US Geol Survey, Penn Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, University Pk, PA 16802 USA Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England Giraffe Conservat Fdn, POB 86099, Eros, Namibia German Primate Ctr, Behav Ecol & Sociobiol Unit, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany Tech Univ Munich, Dept Ecol & Ecosyst Management, Restorat Ecol, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany Cary Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 USA Univ British Columbia, Irving K Barber Sch Arts & Sci, Unit 2, Biol, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada Univ Zurich, Dept Evolutionary Biol & Environm Studies, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland Univ Wyoming, Dept Zool & Physiol, Laramie, WY 82071 USA Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA Univ Montana, Coll Forestry & Conservat, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Wildlife Biol Program, Missoula, MT 59812 USA Bavarian Forest Natl Pk, Dept Conservat & Res, D-94481 Grafenau, Germany Albert Ludwigs Univ Freiburg, Wildlife Ecol & Management, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany Univ Toulouse, INRA, CEFS, Castanet Tolosan, France Univ Calif Davis, Anim Behav Grad Grp, Davis, CA 95616 USA Bionet Natr Onderzoek, NL-6171 EL Stein, Netherlands Univ Vet Med Vienna, Res Inst Wildlife Ecol, A-1160 Vienna, Austria Univ Coll Cork, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Cork, Ireland Univ Wyoming, US Geol Survey, Dept Zool & Physiol, Wyoming Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, Laramie, WY USA North Carolina Museum Nat Sci, Raleigh, NC 27601 USA North Carolina State Univ, Dept Forestry & Environm Resources, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA Karatina Univ, Dept Nat Resource Management, POB 195710101, Karatina, Kenya Univ Lethbridge, Dept Psychol, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA Univ Valencia, Terr Vertebrates Grp, Cavanilles Inst Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol, E-46980 Valencia, Spain SUNY Stony Brook, Dept Anthropol, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA TSG, SSC, IUCN, Rua Licuala 622,Damha 1,Campo Grande, BR-79046150 Mato Grosso Sul, Brazil IPE Inst Pesquisas Ecol Inst Ecol Res, Caixa Postal 47, BR-12960000 Sao Paulo, Brazil Univ Alicante, Dept Ciencias Ambient & Recursos Natur, Vertebrates Zool Res Grp, Alicante, Spain Embrapa Pantanal, BR-79320900 Corumba, MS, Brazil Chico Mendes Inst Conservat Biodivers, Natl Res Ctr Carnivores Conservat, BR-12952011 Atiba, SP, Brazil Univ Glasgow, Inst Biodivers Anim Hlth & Comparat Med, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland NYU, Dept Biol, Ctr Genom & Syst Biol, New York, NY 10003 USA Univ Calif Davis, Dept Microbiol & Mol Genet, Davis, CA 95616 USA Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Synth, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Alexander Silberman Inst Life Sci, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, Movement Ecol Lab, IL-91904 Jerusalem, Israel Norwegian Inst Nat Res, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Math Sci & Ctr Biodivers Dynam, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway Univ Fed Mato Grosso do Sul, Dept Ecol, BR-79070900 Campo Grande, MS, Brazil Field Museum Nat Hist, Integrat Res Ctr, Chicago, IL 60605 USA Consorzio Parco Nazl Stelvio, Bormio, Sondrio, Italy Univ Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR LESSEM, BP 76, F-38402 St Martin Dheres, France Univ Bayreuth, BayCEER, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany Natl Park Schwarzwald, D-77889 Seebach, Germany Univ New South Wales, Evolut & Ecol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia Penn Game Commiss, Harrisburg, PA 17110 USA Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA Univ Konstanz, Dept Biol, D-78467 Constance, Germany Off Natl Chasse & Faune Sauvage, Studies & Expertise DRE, F-01330 Birieux, France Univ Haifa, Dept Evolutionary & Environm Biol, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel Western Ecosyst Technol Inc, Laramie, WY 82070 USA Aarhus Univ, Arctic Res Ctr, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark Polish Acad Sci, Inst Nat Conservat, PL-31120 Krakow, Poland Univ Porto, CIBIO InBIO Associate Lab, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Agron, InBIO Associate Lab, Ctr Appl Ecol Prof Baeta Neves, P-1349017 Lisbon, Portugal Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Environm Changes, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA Jackson Hole Conservat, Jackson, WY 83001 USA Univ Vet Med Hannover, Inst Terr & Aquat Wildlife Res, D-30173 Hannover, Germany Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Environm Studies Dept, Ctr Integrated Spatial Res, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA Univ Pretoria, Dept Zool & Entomol, ZA-0028 Hatfield, South Africa Colorado State Univ, Dept Fish Wildlife & Conservat Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA Tatra Natl Pk, PL-34500 Zakopane, Poland Sao Paulo State Univ, Anim Biol Postgra Program, BR-15054000 Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil

Because body size interacts with many fundamental biological properties ofa species, body size evolution can be an essential component of the generationand maintenance of biodiversity. Here we investigate how body sizeevolution can be linked to the clade-specific diversification dynamics indifferent geographical regions. We analyse an extensive body size datasetof Neogene large herbivores (covering approx. 50% of the 970 species inthe orders Artiodactyla and Perissodactyla) in Europe and North Americain a Bayesian framework. We reconstruct the temporal patterns of bodysize in each order on each continent independently, and find significantincreases of minimum size in three of the continental assemblages (exceptEuropean perissodactyls), suggesting an active selection for larger bodies.Assessment of trait-correlated birth-death models indicates that thecommon trend of body size increase is generated by different processes indifferent clades and regions. Larger-bodied artiodactyl species on both continentstend to have higher origination rates, and both clades in NorthAmerica show strong links between large bodies and low extinction rate.Collectively, our results suggest a strong role of species selection and perhapsof higher-taxon sorting in driving body size evolution, and highlightthe value of investigating evolutionary processes in a biogeographic context.

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

Aim A third of all modern (after 1500) mammal extinctions (24/77) are Australian species. These extinctions have been restricted to southern Australia, predominantly in species of ‘critical weight range’ (35–5500 g) in drier climate zones. Introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) that prey on species in this range are often blamed. A new wave of declines is now affecting a globally significant proportion of marsupial species (19 species) in the fox-free northern tropics. We aim to test plausible causes of recent declines in range and determine if mechanisms differ between current tropical declines and past declines, which were in southern (nontropical) regions. Location Australian continent Methods We used multiple regression and random forest models to analyse traits that were associated with declines in species range, and compare variables associated with past extinctions in the southern zones with current tropical (northern) declines. Results The same two key variables, body mass and habitat structure, were associated with proportion-of-decline in range throughout the continent, but the form of relationships differs with latitude. In the south, medium-sized species in open habitats of lower rainfall were most likely to decline. In the tropics, small species that occupy open vegetation with moderate rainfall (savanna) are now experiencing the most severe declines. Throughout the continent, large-bodied species and those in structurally complex habitats (rainforest) are secure. Main conclusions Our results indicate that there is no mid-sized ‘critical weight range’ in the north. Because foxes are absent from the tropics, we suggest that northern Australian marsupial declines are associated with predation by feral cats (Felis catus) exacerbated by reduced ground level vegetation in non-rainforest habitats. To test this, we recommend experiments to remove cats from some locations where tropical mammals are threatened. Our results show that comparative analysis can help to diagnose potential causes of multi-species decline.

Next-Generation Biogeography In 1876, Alfred Russel Wallace mapped the zoogeographical regions of the world, based on the distributions and taxonomic relationships of broadly defined mammalian families. Wallace's classification of zoogeographical regions became a cornerstone of modern biogeography and a reference for a wide variety of biological disciplines, including global biodiversity and conservation sciences. Holt et al. (p. 74 , published online 20 December) present a next-generation map of wallacean zoogeographic regions, incorporating phylogenetic data on >20,000 vertebrate species to discern and characterize their natural biogeographic patterns.

At global and regional scales, primary productivity strongly correlates with richness patterns of extant animals across space, suggesting that resource availability and climatic conditions drive patterns of diversity. However, the existence and consistency of such diversity–productivity relationships through geological history is unclear. Here we provide a comprehensive quantitative test of the diversity–productivity relationship for terrestrial large mammals through time across broad temporal and spatial scales. We combine >14,000 occurrences for 690 fossil genera through the Neogene (23–1.8 Mya) with regional estimates of primary productivity from fossil plant communities in North America and Europe. We show a significant positive diversity–productivity relationship through the 20-million-year record, providing evidence on unprecedented spatial and temporal scales that this relationship is a general pattern in the ecology and paleo-ecology of our planet. Further, we discover that genus richness today does not match the fossil relationship, suggesting that a combination of human impacts and Pleistocene climate variability has modified the 20-million-year ecological relationship by strongly reducing primary productivity and driving many mammalian species into decline or to extinction.

The joint use of phylogenetic trees and ecological data has proven useful for many aspects of ecology. However, there are a multitude of phylo-diversity metrics with complex interdependencies and mathematical redundancies (the so-called ‘jungle’ of metrics). Several recentpapers have been trying to ‘map’ this jungle but appear at a first glance to contradict each other. We suggest that these contradictory results are in fact complementary and reflect two approaches to understand diversity metrics: the first focuses on general mathematical properties,the second focuses on assessing metric performance in relation to particular questions.In this manuscript, we discuss the complementarity of the two approaches and in particular how recent papers fit into this categorisation.

Aim Phylogenetic diversity can provide insight into how evolutionary processes may have shaped contemporary patterns of species richness. Here, we aim to test for the influence of phylogenetic history on global patterns of amphibian species richness, and to identify areas where macroevolutionary processes such as diversification and dispersal have left strong signatures on contemporary species richness. Location Global; equal-area grid cells of approximately 10,000 km2. Methods We generated an amphibian global supertree (6111 species) and repeated analyses with the largest available molecular phylogeny (2792 species). We combined each tree with global species distributions to map four indices of phylogenetic diversity. To investigate congruence between global spatial patterns of amphibian species richness and phylogenetic diversity, we selected Faith’s phylogenetic diversity (PD) index and the total taxonomic distinctness (TTD) index, because we found that the variance of the other two indices we examined (average taxonomic distinctness and mean root distance) strongly depended on species richness. We then identified regions with unusually high or low phylogenetic diversity given the underlying level of species richness by using the residuals from the global relationship of species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Results Phylogenetic diversity as measured by either Faith’s PD or TTD was strongly correlated with species richness globally, while the other two indices showed very different patterns. When either Faith’s PD or TTD was tested against species richness, residuals were strongly spatially structured. Areas with unusually low phylogenetic diversity for their associated species richness were mostly on islands, indicating large radiations of few lineages that have successfully colonized these archipelagos. Areas with unusually high phylogenetic diversity were located around biogeographic contact zones in Central America and southern China, and seem to have experienced high immigration or in situ diversification rates, combined with local persistence of old lineages. Main conclusions We show spatial structure in the residuals of the relationship between species richness and phylogenetic diversity, which together with the positive relationship itself indicates strong signatures of evolutionary history on contemporary global patterns of amphibian species richness. Areas with unusually low and high phylogenetic diversity for their associated richness demonstrate the importance of biogeographic barriers to dispersal, colonization and diversification processes.

Over the last two decades, macroecology – the analysis of large-scale, multi-species ecological patterns and processes – has established itself as a major line of biological research. Analyses of statistical links between environmental variables and biotic responses have long and successfully been employed as a main approach, but new developments are due to be utilized. Scanning the horizon of macroecology, we identifi ed four challenges that will probably play a major role in the future. We support our claims by examples and bibliographic analyses. 1) Integrating the past into macroecological analyses, e.g. by using paleontological or phylogenetic information or by applying methods from historical biogeography, will sharpen our understanding of the underlying reasons for contemporary patterns. 2) Explicit consideration of the local processes that lead to the observed larger-scale patterns is necessary to understand the fi ne-grain variability found in nature, and will enable better prediction of future patterns (e.g. under environmental change conditions). 3) Macroecology is dependent on large-scale, high quality data from a broad spectrum of taxa and regions. More available data sources need to be tapped and new, small-grain large-extent data need to be collected. 4) Although macroecology already lead to mainstreaming cuttingedge statistical analysis techniques, we fi nd that more sophisticated methods are needed to account for the biases inherent to sampling at large scale. Bayesian methods may be particularly suitable to address these challenges. To continue the vigorous development of the macroecological research agenda, it is time to address these challenges and to avoid becoming too complacent with current achievements.

Adaptive radiation is the rapid diversification of a single lineage into many species that inhabit a variety of environments or use a variety of resources and differ in traits required to exploit these. Why some lineages undergo adaptive radiation is not well-understood, but filling unoccupied ecological space appears to be a common feature. We construct a complete, dated, species-level phylogeny of the endemic Vangidae of Madagascar. This passerine bird radiation represents a classic, but poorly known, avian adaptive radiation. Our results reveal an initial rapid increase in evolutionary lineages and diversification in morphospace after colonizing Madagascar in the late Oligocene some 25 Mya. A subsequent key innovation involving unique bill morphology was associated with a second increase in diversification rates about 10 Mya. The volume of morphospace occupied by contemporary Madagascan vangas is in many aspects as large (shape variation)—or even larger (size variation)—as that of other better-known avian adaptive radiations, including the much younger Galapagos Darwin's finches and Hawaiian honeycreepers. Morphological space bears a close relationship to diet, substrate use, and foraging movements, and thus our results demonstrate the great extent of the evolutionary diversification of the Madagascan vangas.

Mammalian phylogeny is far too asymmetric for all contemporaneous lineages to have had equal chances of diversifying. We consider this asymmetry or imbalance from four perspectives. First, we infer a minimal set of ‘regime changes’—points at which net diversification rate has changed—identifying 15 significant radiations and 12 clades that may be ‘downshifts’. We next show that mammalian phylogeny is similar in shape to a large set of published phylogenies of other vertebrate, arthropod and plant groups, suggesting that many clades may diversify under a largely shared set of ‘rules’. Third, we simulate six simple macroevolutionary models, showing that those where speciation slows down as geographical or niche space is filled, produce more realistic phylogenies than do models involving key innovations. Lastly, an analysis of the spatial scaling of imbalance shows that the phylogeny of species within an assemblage, ecoregion or larger area always tends to be more unbalanced than expected from the phylogeny of species at the next more inclusive spatial scale. We conclude with a verbal model of mammalian macroevolution, which emphasizes the importance to diversification of accessing new regions of geographical or niche space.

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

Declining diversification rates over time are a well-established evolutionary pattern, often interpreted as indicating initial rapid radiation with filling of ecological niche space. Here, we test the hypothesis that island radiations may show constant net diversification rates over time, due to continued expansion into new niche space in highly dispersive taxa. We investigate diversification patterns of four passerine bird families originating from the Indo-Pacific archipelagos, and link these to biogeographic patterns to provide independent indications of niche filling. We find a declining diversification rate for only one family, the Paradisaeidae (41 species). These are almost completely restricted to New Guinea, and have on average smaller species ranges and higher levels of species richness within grid cells than the other three families. In contrast, we cannot reject constant diversification rates for Campephagidae (93 species), Oriolidae (35 species), and Pachycephalidae (53 species), groups that have independently colonized neighboring archipelagos and continents. We propose that Paradisaeidae have reached the diversity limit imposed by their restricted distribution, whereas high dispersal and colonization success across the geologically dynamic Indo-Pacific archipelagos may have sustained high speciation rates for the other three families. Alternatively, increasing extinction rates may have obscured declining speciation rates in those three phylogenies.

The recent commentary by Woinarski (2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/geb.12165) disagreed with our conclusions on the correlates of decline in the marsupials of tropical Australia (Fisher et al., 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 181–190). We compared traits of species that were associated with range decline in southern and northern Australia. We found that habitat structure, climate and body size were correlated with range decline. In the north, declines of marsupials were most severe in savanna with moderate rainfall. In the south, the ranges of species in open habitat with very low rainfall have declined most. Also, the association between range decline and body mass differed between north and south: this is the main concern of Woinarski, who further disagreed with our choice of the Tropic of Capricorn as a boundary between north and south, our omission of rodents, how to treat timing of extinctions, and our inference that cats are major drivers of decline. We address these concerns in this response.

Mountains are key features of the Earth’s surface and host a substantial proportion of the world’s species. However, the links between the evolution and distribution of biodiversity and the formation of mountains remain poorly understood. Here, we integrate multiple datasets to assess the relationships between species richness in mountains, geology and climate at global and regional scales. Specifically, we analyse how erosion, relief, soil and climate relate to the geographical distribution of terrestrial tetrapods, which include amphibians, birds and mammals. We find that centres of species richness correlate with areas of high temperatures, annual rainfall and topographic relief, supporting previous studies. We unveil additional links between mountain-building processes and biodiversity: species richness correlates with erosion rates and heterogeneity of soil types, with a varying response across continents. These additional links are prominent but under-explored, and probably relate to the interplay between surface uplift, climate change and atmospheric circulation through time. They are also influenced by the location and orientation of mountain ranges in relation to air circulation patterns, and how species diversification, dispersal and refugia respond to climate change. A better understanding of biosphere–lithosphere interactions is needed to understand the patterns and evolution of mountain biodiversity across space and time.

Mammals contribute to important ecosystem processes and services, but many mammalian species are threatened with extinction. We compare how global patterns in three measures of mammalian diversity—species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and body mass variance (BMV)—would change if all currently threatened species were lost. Given that many facets of species' ecology and life history scale predictably with body mass, the BMV in a region roughly reflects the diversity of species' roles within ecosystems and so is a simple proxy for functional diversity (FD). PD is also often considered to be a proxy for FD, but our results suggest that BMV losses within ecoregions would be much more severe than losses of PD or species richness, and that its congruence with the latter two measures is low. Because of the disproportionate loss of large mammals, 65 per cent of ecoregions would lose significantly more BMV than under random extinction, while only 11 per cent would lose significantly more PD. Ecosystem consequences of these selective losses may be profound, especially throughout the tropics, but are not captured by PD. This low surrogacy stresses a need for conservation prioritization based on threatened trait diversity, and for conservation efforts to take an ecosystem perspective.

The strength of phylogenetic signal in extinction risk can give insight into the mechanisms behind species' declines. Nevertheless, no existing measure of phylogenetic pattern in a binary trait, such as extinction-risk status, measures signal strength in a way that can be compared among data sets. We developed a new measure for phylogenetic signal of binary traits, D, which simulations show gives robust results with data sets of more than 50 species, even when the proportion of threatened species is low. We applied D to the red-list status of British birds and the world's mammals and found that the threat status for both groups exhibited moderately strong phylogenetic clumping. We also tested the hypothesis that the phylogenetic pattern of species threatened by harvesting will be more strongly clumped than for those species threatened by either habitat loss or invasive species because the life-history traits mediating the effects of harvesting show strong evolutionary pattern. For mammals, our results supported our hypothesis; there was significant but weaker phylogenetic signal in the risk caused by the other two drivers (habitat loss and invasive species). We conclude that D is likely to be a useful measure of the strength of phylogenetic pattern in many binary traits.

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body-mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.

Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species' fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cradles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic comparative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinction risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, ecological differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy.