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Agricultural value chains, particularly in the developing world, have been going through drastic changes over the past decades. Differences in world market participation and access to value chain technologies might however have resulted in uneven experiences across countries. In this paper, we explore their impact on prices in the value chain, using the example of two East African countries, Ethiopia and Uganda. We develop a conceptual framework and then validate the model using unique primary price data collected at several levels in the dairy value chains in both countries. We find that prices are overall significantly lower in Uganda than Ethiopia, reflecting their respective net exporting and importing status. Moreover, despite shorter value chains, we find much more significant effects of distances from the capital (the major end destination) on milk prices in Ethiopia than in Uganda. This is seemingly linked to the widespread presence of milk chilling centers in Uganda. While it has been shown that such technology is important for milk quality, we find here that they also have the added benefit to reduce the impact of farmer’s remoteness on prices and therefore allow for more geographically extended value chains. ispartof: LICOS Discussion Paper 422/2021 pages:1-35 status: published

Agricultural cooperatives have often been promoted as a way to increase their market power and to obtain stability of profit against uncertainty. This paper estimates the firm-level markups and markup volatility to identify the countervailing market power of cooperatives in the Italian fruits and vegetable sector and the dairy sector. We use the firm-level data of Italian firms for the period 2007-2014. We find that, overall, there is a tradeoff in cooperatives’ role between obtaining market power and stability. Farmer cooperatives in both sectors gain stability in their markups but their markups are lower, on average, than those for non-cooperatives. For processor cooperatives, the fruits and vegetable sector obtains more market power. This appears to arise from the product differentiation strategy of the processors cooperative. ispartof: European Review Of Agricultural Economics status: Published online

The adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving the productivity and welfare of poor farmers in developing countries. Not much is known about how value chains do (not) affect technology transfer and/or adoption in domestic food chains in developing countries. Our paper analyzes farm-level technology adoption in the dairy chain in Punjab, India, combining quantitative panel data from representative surveys in 2008 and 2015 with data from targeted interviews with emerging modern dairy farms. Between 2008 and 2015 there were important increases in technology adoption in the form of better hygienic practices, better feed and improved livestock among traditional dairy farms. Especially those farms which lagged behind in 2008 improved their technology. However, the role of vertical coordination in value chains in stimulating technology adoption among these traditional dairy farmers seems to be minor. In contrast, we document the emergence of a group of dynamic modern dairy farms which are much larger, only use modern technology, and are fully integrated in vertically coordinated value chains which support these modern farms' management and investments. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series pages:1-51 status: published

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and agricultural labour productivity by estimating a conditional growth equation. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 213 EU regions over the period 2004-2014) than have been used before. We find that, on average, CAP subsidies increase agricultural labour productivity, and the effect is almost entirely due to decoupled Pillar I payments. Coupled Pillar I payments have no impact. The impact of Pillar II is mixed. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series pages:1-39 status: published

Previous studies on the value of terroir, or more generally geographical indications (GI), used hedonic techniques. We use historical data and exploit temporal and geographical variations in the introduction of wine GIs in early twentieth century France to study the impact on the price of specific wines in the years and decades following their introduction. We find large effects of GIs on prices of some Champagne wines, but no significant impact on Bordeaux or other Champagne wines. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series pages:1-56 status: published

This paper estimates firm-level mark-ups and their volatility along the agri-food value chain using the methodology of De Loecker and Warzynski (2012). We estimate mark-ups of farmers, processors, wholesalers and retailers, how they change over time, and their volatility. We use detailed micro-level data from companies from Italy and France for the period 2006-2014. We find that farmers have a significantly higher volatility of mark-ups than other agents in the agri-food value chain, such as food processors, wholesalers and retailers. The volatility is negatively related with firm size in all sectors, and especially in agriculture. ispartof: pages:1-44 status: Published online

For millennia alcoholic drinks have played an important role in food security and health (both positive and negative), but consumption patterns of beer, wine and spirits have altered substantially over the past two centuries. So too have their production technologies and industrial organization. Globalization and economic growth have contributed to considerable convergence in national alcohol consumption patterns. The industrial revolution contributed to excess consumption by stimulating demand and lowering the cost of alcohol. It also led to concentration in some alcohol industries, expecially brewing. In recent years the emergence of craft producers has countered firm concentration and the homogenization of alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile, governments have intervened extensively in alcohol markets to reduce excessive consumption, raise taxes, protect domestic industries and/or ensure competition. These regulations have contributed to, and been affected by, evolving patterns of consumption and changing structures of alcohol industries. ispartof: LICOS Discussion Paper Series 401/2018 pages:1-52 status: published

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and the outflow of labor from agriculture. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 210 EU regions over the period 2004-2014) than has been used before. The data allow to better correct for sample selection bias than previous empirical studies. We find that, on average, CAP subsidies reduce the outflow of labor from agriculture, but the effect is almost entirely due to decoupled Pillar I payments and the impact of Pillar II is mixed. Coupled Pillar I payments have no impact on reducing labor outflow from agriculture, i.e. on preserving jobs in agriculture. The impact of Pillar II is mixed. Our estimates predicts that a decline of 10 percent of the CAP budget would cause an extra 16,000 people to leave EU agriculture each year. A 10 percent decoupling would save 13,000 agricultural jobs each year. ispartof: pages:1-36 status: published

The aim of this study is to provide an assessment of the application of the reciprocity principle in EU agri-food trade at global level. The report provides substantial evidence for progresses occurring at worldwide level in regulatory rapprochement. Scientific cooperation, collaboration between risk assessment bodies, harmonization of control procedures and early warning systems for emerging hazards can facilitate progress in this direction, reducing transaction costs and information asymmetries in agri-food trade.

The world’s first geographical indications (GIs) were in the wine sector and focused on the delineation of the location of production, the ‘terroir’: the Burgundy wines in the fifteenth century, the Port wines and Chianti wines in the eighteenth century, and the Champagne wines in the early twentieth century. We analyze the causes for the introduction of these GIs (‘terroirs’) and for changes in their delineation (expansion) later on. Our analysis shows that trade played a very important role in the creation of the ‘terroirs’ but not always through the same mechanisms. For the Port and Chianti GIs it was exports to Britain that were crucial; for Burgundy it was domestic trade to Paris; and for the Champagne GI it was not exports but pressure from wine imports and new wine regions that played a crucial role. For the expansions of the GIs later in history, other factors seem to have been equally important. Expansions of the GIs in the years and centuries after their introduction followed major changes in political power; the spread of a new philosophy in liberal and free markets across Europe; and infrastructure investments which opened up markets and made exports cheaper from “new” producers. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 400/2018 pages:1-61 status: published

Urbanization is happening fast in the developing world and especially so in sub-Saharan Africa where growth rates of cities are among the highest in the world. While cities and, in particular, secondary towns, where most of the urban population in sub-Saharan Africa resides, affect agricultural practices in their rural hinterlands, this relationship is not well understood. To fill this gap, we develop a conceptual model to analyze how farmers’ proximity to cities of different sizes affects agricultural prices and intensification of farming. We then test these predictions using large-scale survey data from producers of teff, a major staple crop in Ethiopia, relying on unique data on transport costs and road networks and implementing an array of econometric models. We find that agricultural price behavior and intensification is determined by proximity to a city and the type of city. While proximity to cities has a strong positive effect on agricultural output prices and on uptake of modern inputs and yields on farms, the effects on prices and intensification measures are lower for farmers in the rural hinterlands of secondary towns compared to primate cities. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 393/2017 pages:1-41 status: published

This paper reviews evidence on the impact of EU policies on global food security, focusing on four EU policy areas: agricultural policy, bioenergy policy, trade policy, and development (food aid) policy. Old concerns related to the detrimental impact of EU farm subsidies, food aid and tariffs on poor countries’ food security. New concerns relate to impacts of EU food standards and bioenergy policies. The EU policies which created the largest distortions on global markets (in the area of trade, agriculture, food aid, and bioenergy) have been substantially reformed over the past decades. Recent global food price fluctuations have also re-emphasized that the impact of EU policies on the poor’s food security differ depending on whether these are consumers or producers, or whether countries are exporters or importers. Overall, our review explains that in many areas the impact of EU policies on global food security is less obvious and more complex than often argued. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 392/2017 pages:1-38 status: published

We study the causal effect of trade liberalization on child mortality by exploiting 41 policy reform experiments in the 1960-2010 period. The Synthetic Control Method for comparative case studies allows to compare at the country level the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries (those which experienced trade liberalization) with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated countries. In contrast with previous findings, we find that the effect of trade liberalization on health outcomes displays a huge heterogeneity, both in the direction and the magnitude of the estimated effect. Among the 41 investigated cases, 19 displayed a significant reduction in child mortality after trade liberalization. In 19 cases there was no significant effect, while in three cases we found a significant worsening in child mortality after trade liberalization. Trade reforms in democracies, in middle income countries and which reduced taxation in agriculture reduce child mortality more. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 387/2017 pages:1-52 status: published

This paper reviews available cross-disciplinary evidence on how culture affects food security. We discuss the impact of culture on all four dimensions (availability, access and choice, utilization, and stability). Although there is large heterogeneity in the size and breadth of available evidence, with research often biased toward high-come countries, it is clear that how and why we obtain, process, prepare, and eat food is influenced by culture in various ways. In addition, gender, family, and decision-making power play a critical role in the impact of culture. The dynamics of culture as well as the magnitude and relative importance of cultural effects in the context of food security are still poorly understood. Nevertheless, there remains ample scope for improving food security policy by taking culture better into account. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 398/2017 pages:1-41 status: published

There is much debate on the impact of product and process standards on trade. The conceptual arguments are complex and empirical evidence is mixed. We analyse the impact of standards and tariffs on the dramatic rise and fall of the raisin trade between France and Greece in the course of 25 years at the end of the nineteenth century. The case illustrates how product standards can be used to address consumer concerns and to protect producer interests. Economic conditions and French policies first stimulated Greek raisin imports. Later, changing conditions and political pressures led to the introduction of tariffs and wine standards which caused major declines in Greek exports and ultimately the bankruptcy of the Greek economy. Interestingly, this trade episode of more than a century ago still has a regulatory legacy in today’s EU wine regulations. ispartof: Journal of World Trade: Law, Economics, Public Policy vol:51 issue:4 pages:711-740 status: published

This dataset includes annual data on agricultural production, prices, trade and derived policy indicators for various commodities and nine European countries since the second half of the 19th century until the countries joined the EU. The countries are Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Spain and Italy. The data was collected from a variety of sources, mostly national statistics, and the commodity and time coverage varies between countries. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 399/2017 pages:1-15 status: published

The 1860–1970 period is a particularly interesting period to study wine trade because of dramatic changes in the wine markets and trade over the course of a century. The dramatic changes in trade flows were caused by both “nature” and “men”. Mediterranean wine trade represented around 90% of global wine trade and France was the world’s leading exporter. The arrival of Phylloxera devastated French vineyards and stimulated Spanish and Italian wine exports. When French wine production recovered, French winegrowers pressured their government to intervene, resulting in high tariffs on Spanish and Italian wines and Greek raisins. The protectionist trade regime contributed to the bankruptcy of Greece and to the substitution of wine trade from Spain and Italy to France’s North African colonies. When Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia became independent, France imposed high wine tariffs, effectively killing their wine exports. The decline of the wine industry in North Africa coincided with the trade and policy integration of the South European wine exporters in the EEC—the predecessor of the EU. ispartof: LICOS- Discussion paper series 384/2016 pages:1-44 status: published

The adoption of modern technologies in agriculture is crucial for improving productivity of poor farmers and poverty reduction. However, the adoption of modern technology has been disappointing. The role of value chains in technology adoption has been largely ignored so far, despite the dramatic transformation and spread of modern agri-food value chains. We argue that value chain organization and innovations can have an important impact on modern technology adoption, not just by downstream companies, but also by farmers. We provide a conceptual framework and an empirical typology of institutional innovations through which value chains can contribute to technology transfer to agriculture in developing and emerging countries. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 376/2016 pages:1-41 status: published

Due to the rapid growth of cities in Africa, a larger number of farmers is living in the rural hinterland providing food to urban residents. However, empirical evidence on how urbanization affects these farmers is scarce. To fill this gap, this paper explores the relationship between proximity to a city and the production behavior of rural staple crop producers. More in particular, we analyze unique data from teff producing farmers in major producing areas around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. We find that farmers more closely located to Addis Ababa face higher wages and land rental prices, but because they receive higher teff prices they have better incentives to intensify production. Moreover, we observe that modern input use, land and labor productivity, and profitability in teff production improve with urban proximity. There is a strong and significant direct effect of urban proximity, which is suggested to be related with more use of formal factor markets, less transaction costs, and better access to information. In contrast, we do not find strong and positive relationships of rural population density increases - as an alternative source of agricultural transformation - as they seem to lead to immiserizing effects in these settings. Our results show that urban proximity should be considered as an important determinant of the process of agricultural intensification and transformation in developing countries. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 374/2016 pages:1-65 status: published

ispartof: Lancet Global Health vol:4 issue:12 pages:E905-E905 ispartof: location:England status: published

A huge cross-section literature, written by economists and others, argues that human wellbeing is U-shaped through the life cycle. In many cases this U-shape is robust (with a wellknown exception the pattern evident in some U.S. data sets if few independent variables are included). However, a lively debate is currently ongoing about its true shape. This paper discusses the identification problem of age, time, and cohort effects. It suggests a simple way to interpret estimates of age variables in a first-difference framework. Building on McKenzie’s (2006) methodology, the paper shows that no extra assumptions are needed in order to identify the second derivative of well-being to age, i.e. to estimate the changes in the actual age and well-being relationship. An empirical application, using a large German data set, finds that human well-being is convex in age until after midlife, which is approximately consistent with a U-shaped pattern through life, and not with the concave relationship sometimes found in U.S. studies. ispartof: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization vol:81 issue:2 pages:571-582 status: published

In this article we study the political process that governs the creation and size of new Geographical Indications (GIs). Producers can choose to apply for a GI and subsequently go through a bargaining process with the government. We derive the optimal GI area from the point of view of consumers, producers, social welfare, and the government; and we show how bargaining leads to a GI size in between the applicant’s optimum and the government’s optimum. Under the assumption that the non-GI good is a commodity, any GI implemented through the political process is welfare-enhancing, but not all welfare-enhancing GIs will be proposed by producers. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 372/2015 pages:1-37 status: published

Belgium is associated with high-quality chocolate products and Belgian companies play an important role in cocoa processing. However, in historical perspective the global success and reputation of Belgian chocolate is a relatively recent phenomenon. Especially since the 1980s exports of “Belgian chocolates” have grown exponentially. We document the growth of the sector and discuss its determinants. Today, the very concept of “Belgian chocolate” faces challenges, as successful companies have been taken over by international investors and because its success has led others to imitate. Recently there have been attempts to protect “true” Belgian chocolate. ispartof: LICOS discussion paper series 369/2015 pages:1-40 status: published

In 2008, the EU voted to liberalize its system of planting rights which has strictly regulated vine plantings in the EU. However, after an intense lobbying campaign the liberalization of the planting right system was overturned in 2013 and new regulations created an even more restrictive system. European wine associations complained about the detrimental effects of the new regulations. There is a precedent in history. In 1726, the French political philosopher and landowner Montesquieu complained to the French King about the prohibition on planting new vines. Montesquieu was not successful in his demands to remove the planting rights. Old and recent history suggests that political forces against liberalization of planting rights are very strong. Only the French Revolution in 1789 led to a fundamental liberalization of planting rights. The “liberal period” of the 19th century was sustained by the combination of the French Revolution’s liberal ideology, the thirst for wine of Napoleon’s armies and diseases that wiped out most of the French vineyards. That said, in the past and the present, enforcement of planting rights is a major problem. In fact,despite the official restrictions, Montesquieu managed to plant his vines, allowing him to become a successful wine producer and merchant and to travel and to spend time thinking, discussing and ultimately writing up his ideas which influenced much of the Western world’s constitutions. ispartof: LICOS discussion paper series 367/2015 pages:1-47 status: published

We develop an extended Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) methodology to disentangle policy welfare impacts for various interest groups along the value chain (to disaggregate effects within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas). We apply our value chain NRA methodology to Pakistan’s price and trade policy. We analyse the welfare implications for various agents in the wheat-flour value chain from 2000 to 2013, a period characterized by major global price volatility and by regular adjustments of domestic policies. We find that the wheat price policy has generally benefitted flour consumers and wheat traders at the expense of wheat farmers and to a lesser extent flour millers. Our findings illustrate that the welfare implications of policies can be quite different within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas, which has potentially important implications for economic and political economy analyses and for the design of policies aimed at targeting the poorest groups along value chains.

We examine the impact of a different cultural background on individual behavior, focusing on penalties in football matches of southern European and northern European football players in the English Premier League. Southern European football players collect on average more football penalties than their British colleagues and northern European football players collect on average less football penalties than their British colleagues. The number of football penalties incurred by southern European players is initially higher but converges towards the local average the longer their experience in the English Premier League. ispartof: Journal of Sports Economics vol:16 issue:5 pages:508-530 status: published

This paper reviews the situation in the agricultural sector and food security in Cuba and in particular the transformations that have (not) taken place since 1990. We compare the Cuban transition with transitions in other “transition countries” and show that Cuba does not fit easily in one of the transition patterns, and, in a way, has characteristics of “a bit of everything”. To conclude, we discuss the (potential) effects of the recent policy changes. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series 361/2015 pages:1-53 status: published

We assess the literature on public and private quality standards and their impact in food markets, international trade, and global supply chains. We focus on their effects on welfare, trade, industrial organization, and labor markets and with special attention to the North-South context. We also attempt to better characterize when these measures constitute protectionism, a complicate task. We look at studies investigating public and private standards and across various quantitative approaches and countries. These standards have complex effects. The evidence is mixed regarding standards as catalyst for or impediment against trade and development, reflecting the complexity of these effects and their specificity to industries and countries. The analysis of standard-like nontariff measures and their impacts does not lead to sweeping prescriptions for policy reforms. We identify more modest prescriptions and make some recommendations for fruitful research directions., Please see formal publication: Beghin, J., Maertens, M., Swinnen, J. (2015). Non-Tariff Measures and Standards in Trade and Global Value Chains. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 7, 425-450.

The indirect effects of biofuels are mostly considered negative. In this paper, we argue that there may be a positive indirect effect of biofuels on food security and poverty. Our analysis shows that the introduction of castor production for biofuel in a poor country as Ethiopia can significantly improve food productivity of rural households who produce raw material for biofuel production. This spillover seems particularly linked to enhanced access to inputs and technical assistance which were provided as part of biofuel feedstock production contracts. Our results thus help nuancing the view that biofuels necessarily harm smallholders’ food security.

This paper investigates the causal effect of trade liberalization on children mortality by exploiting 40 policy reform experiments spanning the 1960-2010 period. We use a new approach – the Synthetic Control Method – for comparative case studies. Using this method we assess at the country level the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries, which experienced a trade liberalization, with the trajectory of a combination of similar untreated countries. Contrary to previous findings, we showed that the effect of trade liberalization on health outcomes display a huge heterogeneity both in the direction and the magnitude of the effect. Among the 40 investigated case studies, 20 displayed a reduction in children mortality after a trade liberalization, and the majority of these are statistically significant. In 18 country casestudies we did not find any relevant effect, while in two cases ‒ South Africa and Mauritania ‒ we found a strong statistically significant worsening in child mortality after trade liberalization. Yet, the underline reasons of these negative effects are driven by very different situations.

We develop an extended Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) methodology to disentangle the welfare impacts of policies for various interest groups along the value chain (to disaggregate effects within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas). We apply our value chain NRA methodology to the case of Pakistan’s price and trade policy. We analyse the welfare implications for various agents in the wheat-flour value chain from 2000 to 2013, a period characterized by major global price volatility and by regular adjustments of domestic policies. We find that the wheat price policy has generally benefitted flour consumers and wheat traders at the expense of wheat farmers and to a lesser extent flour millers. Our findings illustrate that the welfare implications of policies can be quite different within the “producer” and “consumer” umbrellas, which has potentially important implications for economic and political economy analyses and for the design of policies that aim to target the poorest groups along value chains. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series 366/2015 pages:1-62 status: published

This study evaluates how the most recent CAP reform was affected by the enhanced role of the EP; assesses the extent to which maximum influence was exercised by the EP negotiators and provides insights to assist the EP in its approach to future reform negotiations. status: published

This paper addresses to what extent governments have traded off price distortions for reduced volatility in intervening in agricultural and food markets during the recent food price spikes. We develop a model to derive how much distortions a government would introduce when it cares about stability in a situation with limited policy options. We show a trade-off and identify the optimal combination of distortions and stability for given international price shocks and interest groups preferences for stability. Empirical evidence shows that several countries have been able to reduce (short run) price volatility in the domestic markets while at the same time allowing structural (medium and long term) price changes to pass through to producers and consumers. However,this is not the general case. For many countries, even when explicitly taking into account the trade-off (and the benefits of reducing volatility) government policies appear far removed from the optimal trade-off and there appears to be much room for policy improvement. ispartof: LICOS Discussion paper series 359/2014 pages:1-32 status: published

Despite the growing importance of geographical indications (GI), relatively little attention has been devoted to studying the optimal size of a GI region, as well as how lobbying by interest groups may affect the actual size. We develop a political economy model of the size of geographical indications, taking into account possible effects on perceived quality as well as on cost sharing among producers. We show that the political process may result in a GI area that is smaller or larger than the social optimum, not just depending on the relative political influence of existing and potential producers, but also on how changes in quality affect consumer welfare. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 358/2014 pages:1-39 status: published

Land regulations have a major impact on economic development, especially in agrarian societies, and they continue to affect the efficiency of the rural economy when economies further develop. This paper aims to give an overview of the regulations that are present in the land market in the EU member states and builds a land regulatory index to quantify the extent of regulations of agricultural land sales and rental markets. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 354/2014 pages:1-31 status: published

The indirect effects of biofuels are mostly considered negative. In this paper, we argue that there may be a positive indirect effect of biofuels on food security and poverty. Our analysis shows that the introduction of castor production for biofuel in a poor country as Ethiopia can significantly improve food productivity of rural households who produce raw material for biofuel production. This spillover seems particularly linked to enhanced access to inputs and technical assistance which were provided as part of biofuel feedstock production contracts. Our results thus help nuancing the view that biofuels necessarily harm smallholders’ food security ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 356/2014 pages:1-30 status: published

This paper studies the effect of a political regime transition on food security and more specifically on child mortality. Using a new estimation approach, the Synthetic Control Method, we find that a political reform towards a democracy does not systematically reduce child mortality. Of the 33 country case studies, we find a significant and positive relation between food security and political reforms for 4 countries, while for the remaining 29 countries no impact was found. These results are in contrast with the results from the traditional difference-in-difference estimations

Benin’s shrimp sector collapsed following a ban on its exports to the EU. The ban was imposed in July 2003 and resulted from the non-compliance with EU food safety standards. Strikingly, the sector did not revive, despite the lift of the ban in 2005 and considerable Aid for Trade flows. We argue that the sector’s dependency on the EU, Benin’s poor institutional environment, and inadequate Aid for Trade have played critical roles in explaining the persistent effects of the ban. ispartof: Analysis & policy brief 7 pages:1-4 status: published

The recent spikes of global food prices induced a rapid increase in mass media coverage, public policy attention, and donor funding for food security, and for agriculture and rural poverty. This has occurred while the shift from “low” to “high” food prices has induced a shift in (demographic or social) “location” of the hunger and poverty effects, but the total number of undernourished and poor people have declined over the same period. We discuss whether the observed pattern can be explained by the presence of a “global urban bias” on agriculture and food policy in developing countries, and whether this “global urban bias” may actually benefit poor farmers. We argue that the food price spikes appear to have succeeded where others have failed in the past: to move the problems of poor and hungry farmers to the top of the policy agenda and to induce development and donor strategies to help them. ispartof: LICOS - Discussion paper series 348/2014 pages:1-39 status: published