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Reducing emissions of non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), complements CO2 mitigation in limiting global warming. However, estimating carbon–climate feedback for these gases remains fraught with uncertainties, especially under overshoot scenarios. This study investigates the impact of CO2 and non-CO2 gases with nearly equal levels of effective radiative forcing on the climate and carbon cycle, using the Earth system model (ESM) IPSL-CM6A-LR. We first present a method to recalibrate methane and nitrous oxide concentrations to align with published radiative forcings, ensuring accurate model performance. Next, we carry out a series of idealised ramp-up and ramp-down concentration-driven experiments and show that, while the impacts of increasing and decreasing CO2 and non-CO2 gases on the surface climate are nearly equivalent (when their radiative forcing magnitudes are set to be the same), regional differences emerge. We further explore the carbon cycle feedbacks and demonstrate that they differ under CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. CO2 forcing leads to both carbon–climate and carbon–concentration feedbacks, whereas non-CO2 gases give rise to the carbon–climate feedback only. We introduce a framework, building on previous studies that addressed CO2 forcing, to separate the carbon–climate feedback into a temperature term and a temperature–CO2 cross-term. Our findings reveal that these feedback terms are comparable in magnitude for the global ocean. This underscores the importance of considering both terms in carbon cycle feedback framework and climate change mitigation strategies.

In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.

Stringent mitigation pathways frame the deployment of second-generation bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to generate negative CO2 emissions. This bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) technology facilitates the achievement of the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use five state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) to explore the consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment on the climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under the CMIP6 SSP5-3.4-OS overshoot scenario keeping in mind that all these models use generic crop vegetation to simulate BECCS. First, we evaluate the land cover representation by ESMs and highlight the inconsistencies that emerge during translation of the data from integrated assessment models (IAMs) that are used to develop the scenario. Second, we evaluate the land-use change (LUC) emissions of ESMs against bookkeeping models. Finally, we show that an extensive cropland expansion for BECCS causes ecosystem carbon loss that drives the acceleration of carbon turnover and affects the CO2 fertilization effect- and climate-change-driven land carbon uptake. Over the 2000–2100 period, the LUC for BECCS leads to an offset of the CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake by 12.2 % and amplifies the climate-change-driven carbon loss by 14.6 %. A human choice on land area allocation for energy crops should take into account not only the potential amount of the bioenergy yield but also the LUC emissions, and the associated loss of future potential change in the carbon uptake. The dependency of the land carbon uptake on LUC is strong in the SSP5-3.4-OS scenario, but it also affects other Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and should be taken into account by the IAM teams. Future studies should further investigate the trade-offs between the carbon gains from the bioenergy yield and losses from the reduced CO2 fertilization effect-driven carbon uptake where BECCS is applied.

The degradation of permafrost is a large source of uncertainty in understanding the behaviour and projecting the future impacts of Earth's climate system. The spatial distributions of soil organic carbon (SOC) and ground ice (ICE) provide essential information for the assessment and projection of risks and impacts of permafrost degradation. However, uncertainties regarding the geographical distribution and estimated range of the total amount of stored carbon and ice are still substantial. A numerical soil organic carbon–ground ice budget model, SOC-ICE-v1.0, that considers essential aspects of carbon and hydrological processes in above-ground and subsurface environments and permanently frozen ground (permafrost) and land cover changes (ice sheets and coastlines) was developed to calculate the long-term evolution of local SOC and ICE. The model was integrated to cover the last 125 kyr – from the last interglacial to date for areas north of 50∘ N at 1∘ resolution – to simulate the balance between accumulation and dissipation of SOC and ICE. Model performance was compared with observation-based data and evaluated to assess allogenic (external) impacts on soil carbon dynamics in the circum-Arctic region on a glacial–interglacial timescale. Despite the limitation of forcing climate data being constructed on the basis of a single Greenland ice core dataset, the simulated results successfully reproduced temporal changes in northern SOC and ICE, consist with current knowledge. The simulation also captured regional differences in different geographical and climatic characteristics within the circum-Arctic region. The model quantitatively demonstrated allogenic controls on soil carbon evolution represented by a key parameter that reflects climatological and topo-geographical factors. The resulting circum-Arctic set of simulated time series can be compiled to produce snapshot maps of SOC and ICE distributions for past and present assessments or future projection simulations. Examples of 1∘ resolution maps for the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene periods were provided. Despite a simple modelling framework, SOC-ICE-v1.0 provided substantial information on the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of circum-Arctic SOC and ICE. Model improvements in terms of forcing climate data, improvement of SOC and ICE dynamics, and choice of initial values are, however, required for future research.

Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.

Abstract There is a substantial gap between the current emissions of greenhouse gases and levels required for achieving the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement. Understanding the implications of a temperature overshoot is thus an increasingly relevant research topic. Here we explore the carbon cycle feedbacks over land and ocean in the SSP5‐3.4‐OS overshoot scenario by using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 Earth system models. Models show that after the CO2 concentration and air temperature peaks, land and ocean are decreasing carbon sinks from the 2,040s and become sources for a limited time in the 22nd century. The decrease in the carbon uptake precedes the CO2 concentration peak. The early peak of ocean uptake stems from its dependency on the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. The early peak of the land uptake occurs due to a larger increase in ecosystem respiration than the increase in gross primary production, as well as due to a concomitant increase in land‐use change emissions primarily attributed to the wide implementation of biofuel croplands. The carbon cycle feedback parameters amplify after the CO2 concentration and temperature peaks due to inertia of the Earth system so that land and ocean absorb more carbon per unit change in the atmospheric CO2 change (stronger negative feedback) and lose more carbon per unit temperature change (stronger positive feedback) compared to if the feedbacks stayed unchanged. The increased negative CO2 feedback outperforms the increased positive climate feedback. This feature should be investigated under other scenarios.

This study discusses how much of the biases in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and clouds can be removed by parameter tuning in the present-day simulation of a climate model in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) generation. We used output of a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiment conducted with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) without flux adjustment. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) was used for the PPE experiment. Output of the PPE was compared with satellite observation data to evaluate the model biases and the parametric uncertainty of the biases with respect to TOA radiation and clouds. The results indicate that removing or changing the sign of the biases by parameter tuning alone is difficult. In particular, the cooling bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect at low latitudes could not be removed, neither in the zonal mean nor at each latitude–longitude grid point. The bias was related to the overestimation of both cloud amount and cloud optical thickness, which could not be removed by the parameter tuning either. However, they could be alleviated by tuning parameters such as the maximum cumulus updraft velocity at the cloud base. On the other hand, the bias of the shortwave cloud radiative effect in the Arctic was sensitive to parameter tuning. It could be removed by tuning such parameters as albedo of ice and snow both in the zonal mean and at each grid point. The obtained results illustrate the benefit of PPE experiments which provide useful information regarding effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning. Implementing a shallow convection parameterization is suggested as a potential measure to alleviate the biases in radiation and clouds.

We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. At the end of the simulation period, changes from the year 2000 in all three variables varied considerably from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC and SOC projections, GVMs are the main influence on uncertainties (60 % and 90 %, respectively) rather than climate-driving scenarios (RCPs and GCMs). Moreover, the divergence of changes in vegetation carbon residence times is dominated by GVM uncertainty, particularly in the latter half of the 21st century. In addition, we found that the contribution of each uncertainty source is spatiotemporally heterogeneous and it differs among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division becomes cooler (from ca. 80 % in the equatorial division to 40 % in the snow division). Our results suggest that to assess climate change impacts on global ecosystem C cycling among each RCP scenario, the long-term C dynamics within the ecosystems (i.e., vegetation turnover and soil decomposition) are more critical factors than photosynthetic processes. The different trends in the contribution of uncertainty sources in each variable among climate divisions indicate that improvement of GVMs based on climate division or biome type will be effective. On the other hand, in dry regions, GCMs are the dominant uncertainty source in climate impact assessments of vegetation and soil C dynamics.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in biospheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate projections from four representative-concentration-pathways (RCPs)-based atmospheric concentration scenarios. The goal was to specify calculated uncertainty in global SOC stock projections from global and regional perspectives and give insight to the improvement of SOC-relevant processes in biome models. SOC stocks among the biome models varied from 1090 to 2650 Pg C even in historical periods (ca. 2000). In a higher forcing scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), inconsistent estimates of impact on the total SOC (2099–2000) were obtained from different biome model simulations, ranging from a net sink of 347 Pg C to a net source of 122 Pg C. In all models, the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration in the RCP8.5 scenario considerably contributed to carbon accumulation in SOC. However, magnitudes varied from 93 to 264 Pg C by the end of the 21st century across biome models. Using the time-series data of total global SOC simulated by each biome model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the global SOC stock to global mean temperature and global precipitation anomalies (ΔT and ΔP respectively) in each biome model using a state-space model. This analysis suggests that ΔT explained global SOC stock changes in most models with a resolution of 1–2 °C, and the magnitude of global SOC decomposition from a 2 °C rise ranged from almost 0 to 3.53 Pg C yr−1 among the biome models. However, ΔP had a negligible impact on change in the global SOC changes. Spatial heterogeneity was evident and inconsistent among the biome models, especially in boreal to arctic regions. Our study reveals considerable climate uncertainty in SOC decomposition responses to climate and CO2 change among biome models. Further research is required to improve our ability to estimate biospheric feedbacks through both SOC-relevant and vegetation-relevant processes.

There is great uncertainty regarding the role of mineral dust aerosols in Earth's climate system. One reason for this uncertainty is that the optical properties of mineral dust, such as its single scattering albedo (the ratio of scattering to total extinction), are poorly constrained because ground observations are limited to a few locations and satellite standard products are not available due to the excessively bright surface of the desert in the visible wavelength, which makes robust retrievals difficult. Here, we develop a method to estimate the spatial distributions of the aerosol single scattering albedo (ω0) and optical depth (τa), with daily 1°×1° spatial resolution using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) as well as model simulations of radiative transfer. This approach is based on the "critical surface reflectance" method developed in the literature, which estimates ω0 from the top of the atmospheric radiance. We estimate the uncertainties in ω0 over the Sahara (Asia) to be approximately 0.020 and 0.010 (0.023 and 0.017) for bands 9 and 1, respectively, while the uncertainty in τa is approximately 0.235 and 0.228 (0.464 and 0.370) for bands 9 and 1, respectively. The 5–95% range of the spatial distribution of ω0 over the Sahara (Asia) is approximately 0.90–0.94 and 0.96–0.99 (0.87–0.94 and 0.89–0.97) for bands 9 and 1, respectively, and that of τa over the Sahara (Asia) is approximately 0.8–1.4 and 0.8–1.7 (0.7–2.0 and 0.7–1.9) for bands 9 and 1, respectively. The results for the Sahara indicate a good correlation between ω0 and the surface reflectance, and between ω0 and τa. However, the relationships between ω0, τa, and surface reflectance are less clear in Asia than in the Sahara, and the ω0 values are smaller than those in the Sahara. The regions with small ω0 values are consistent with the regions where coal-burning smoke and carbonaceous aerosols are reported to be transported in previous studies. Because the coal-burning and carbonaceous aerosols are known to be more absorptive and have smaller ω0 values than dust aerosols, our results indicate that the dust aerosols in Asia are contaminated by these anthropogenic aerosols. The spatial distribution of dust optical properties obtained in our work could be useful in understanding the role of dust aerosols in Earth's climate system, most likely through future collaboration with regional and global modelling studies.

To examine the influence of both crop cultivation and surface air temperatures (SATs) on annual global isoprene and monoterpene emissions, which can lead to the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), we simulated, on a monthly basis, the annual emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during the period 1854–2000. The model estimates were based on historical climate data such as SATs, and downward solar radiation (DSR) reproduced with an atmospheric-ocean circulation model, as well as a time series of the global distribution of cropland (to test the hypothesis that conversion of forests into croplands lowers emissions). The simulations demonstrated that global SAT, DSR, the combination of SAT and DSR, and the expansion of cropland all affected emissions. The effect of cropland expansion (i.e., forest conversion) on annual emissions during this period was larger for isoprene (~7% reduction on a global scale) than for monoterpenes (~2% reduction), mainly because of the reduction in broadleaf evergreen forests (BEFs) in Southeast Asia, which have the highest and most constant emissions of isoprene and where both temperature and radiation are high all year round. The reduction in the Amazon region and in parts of Africa, which are other primary sources of annual global isoprene emissions, but where the conversion of BEF to cropland has been much smaller than in Southeast Asia, was less remarkable, probably because the broadleaf deciduous forests and C4 grasslands in these areas have lower and seasonal emissions; hence, their conversion has less effect. On the other hand, the difference in the emission factors (ε) between cropland and the other vegetation types was much lower for monoterpenes than for isoprene, although the ε for cropland was generally the lowest for both compounds. Thus, the expansion of cropland also contributed to the reduction in monoterpene emissions to some degree, but had less effect. A ~5% increase in emissions due to rising SAT was more than offset by the decrease in isoprene emissions and a concurrent ~2% reduction caused by a decrease in DSR. Overall, annual global isoprene emissions in 2000 were lower than in 1854 by 13 TgC yr−1, whereas annual global monoterpene emissions were higher by 2.3 TgC yr−1.

The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280–315 nm) radiation through 1850–2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N–60° N and 120° E–150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

An earth system model (MIROC-ESM 2010) is fully described in terms of each model component and their interactions. Results for the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) historical simulation are presented to demonstrate the model's performance from several perspectives: atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, land-surface, ocean and terrestrial biogeochemistry, and atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. An atmospheric chemistry coupled version of MIROC-ESM (MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2010) reasonably reproduces transient variations in surface air temperatures for the period 1850–2005, as well as the present-day climatology for the zonal-mean zonal winds and temperatures from the surface to the mesosphere. The historical evolution and global distribution of column ozone and the amount of tropospheric aerosols are reasonably simulated in the model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways' (RCP) historical emissions of these precursors. The simulated distributions of the terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry parameters agree with recent observations, which is encouraging to use the model for future global change projections.

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2025. The Author(s).)

Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO 2 fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from -0.27 (-0.59-0.05) to -0.16 (-0.42-0.10) GtC year -1 at 4.4 °C warming level, reducing the variance by 34%. This study implies that climate-induced carbon loss in the Amazon rainforest by 2100 is less than thought and that past global temperature trends can be used to refine regional carbon cycle projections., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km 2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km 2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km 2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost including the Yedoma layer due to climate change and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The PDGEM includes the processes by which high-concentration GHGs (CO 2 and CH 4 ) contained in the pores of the Yedoma layer are released directly by dynamic degradation, as well as the processes by which GHGs are released by the decomposition of organic matter in the Yedoma layer and other permafrost. Our model simulations show that the total GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario was estimated to be 31-63 PgC for CO 2 and 1261-2821 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (68 th percentile of the perturbed model simulations, corresponding to a global average surface air temperature change of 0.05-0.11 °C), and 14-28 PgC for CO 2 and 618-1341 TgCH 4 for CH 4 (0.03-0.07 °C) in the RCP2.6 scenario. GHG emissions resulting from the dynamic degradation of the Yedoma layer were estimated to be less than 1% of the total emissions from the permafrost in both scenarios, possibly because of the small area ratio of the Yedoma layer. An advantage of PDGEM is that geographical distributions of GHG emissions can be estimated by combining a state-of-the-art land surface model featuring detailed physical processes with a GHG release model using a simple scheme, enabling us to consider a broad range of uncertainty regarding model parameters. In regions with large GHG emissions due to permafrost thawing, it may be possible to help reduce GHG emissions by taking measures such as restraining land development., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interest., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

To date, the treatment of permafrost in global climate models has been simplified due to the prevailing uncertainties in the processes involving frozen ground. In this study, we improved the modeling of permafrost processes in a state-of-the-art climate model by taking into account some of the relevant physical properties of soil such as changes in the thermophysical properties due to soil freezing. As a result, the improved version of the global land surface model was able to reproduce a more realistic permafrost distribution at the southern limit of the permafrost area by increasing the freezing of soil moisture in winter. The improved modeling of permafrost processes also had a significant effect on future projections. Using the conventional formulation, the predicted cumulative reduction of the permafrost area by year 2100 was approximately 60% (40-80% range of uncertainty from a multi-model ensemble) in the RCP8.5 scenario, while with the improved formulation, the reduction was approximately 35% (20-50%). Our results indicate that the improved treatment of permafrost processes in global climate models is important to ensuring more reliable future projections., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests, (© The Author(s) 2020.)

Splenectomy is often performed in patients who undergo total gastrectomy for cancer of the upper stomach. Although splenectomy facilitates lymph node dissection of the splenic hilum and recent reports advocate spleen preservation, the role of the spleen is not fully elucidated in gastric cancer treatment. This prospective randomized study was performed to evaluate the role of the spleen in immunological function in gastric cancer patients who underwent total gastrectomy and received postoperative immunochemotherapy. Forty-five patients with gastric cancer were randomly allocated to four groups: 1. splenectomy without immunotherapy (OK-432 administration), 2. splenectomy with immunotherapy, 3. spleen preservation without immunotherapy, 4. spleen preservation with immunotherapy. Postoperative immunological function of these patients was compared among the four groups. NK cell activity of the peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) in spleen-preserved patients who received immunotherapy was significantly higher for 24 weeks after surgery than that of the splenectomized patients with and without OK-432 administration. IL-2 production of PBL in spleen-preserved patients with immunotherapy was significantly higher between 4 and 24 weeks after surgery compared with that of the splenectomized patients without immunotherapy. The results suggest that spleen preservation might be beneficial in patients with less advanced gastric cancer who receive postoperative immunochemotherapy after total gastrectomy.

On the liquid-liquid extraction using 1,2-dichloroethane as an organic solvent, the crowned spirobenzopyrans exhibited textractability in the following order: Li+ >> Na+ > K+ > or = tetramethylammonium ion (TMA+), Li+ > Na+ >> K+ > TMA+, and Na+ > K+ >> Li+ > TMA+ for spirobenzopyran derivatives bearing monoaza-12-crown-4, 1; monoaza-15-crown-5, 2; and monoaza-18-crown-6, 3; respectively, under dark conditions. The ion selectivity of 1 depends on the metal-ion complexing ability of monoaza-12-crown-4. Even 2, which carries a 15-crown-5 moiety, showed Li+ selectivity because of the much stronger interaction of Li+ with the phenolate ion of the merocyanine form of 2 than that of Na+. The Na+ selectivity of 3 is also attributed to the ionic interaction with the phenolate ion of the merocyanine form, since the ionic interaction prefers Na+ to K+ regardless of the higher affinity of the 18-crown-6 ring itself to the latter ion. The Li+ extraction into the organic phase with 1 was enhanced by UV irradiation (300-400 nm), while some depression in the extraction was found by visible irradiation (>500 nm). The effect of visible irradiation on the Li+ complexing ability of 1 was also examined with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry.

Human herpesviruses have been known to be reactivated from latent infection iin immunosuppressed individuals. To assess the immunity, antibodies to human herpesviruses (VZV, HSV, CMV and EBV) were measured in patients with gastrointestinal cancer and normal persons ranging from 40 to 80 in age. CF antibodies to herpesviruses except for EBV were negative in normal persons below the age of 60 and cancer patients aged 60 and over. The CF antibody titer higher than 1:64 occurred only in young cancer patients and older normal persons. The titer of VCA antibody to EBV ranged from 1:40 to 1:160 in more than 80% of normal persons and was higher than 1:640 in less than 7%. The ratio those with antibody negative or below 1:40 increased with the age. In contrast, the titer was higher than 1:320 in 70% of the patients, and the antibody was negative in none of them. In addition, the low titer occurred only in less than 5%. The rate of patients having higher VCA antibody titers increased with age, and the titer was high in more than 50% of patients in the 8th decade. In cancer patients, the higher the VCA antibody titer was, the less number of mature B cells, target cells of EBV, and the B cell functions were observed. This suggests that reactivation of EBV in hosts bearing carcinomas results in a fall of production of the specific antibody.

Nine cases of superficial carcinoma of the esophagus were described. Although 3 patients complained of abdominal sensations on swallowing or dysphasia, 6 patients did not present with any symptoms related to the esophageal lesion. The radiologic diagnosis is particularly difficult in cases with superficial type esophageal cancer, and no definitive findings were obtained in three such cases. However, esophagoscopy using Lugol spray was far more effective for the recognition of these superficial lesions. Although surgical resection of the esophagus is technically easier in these cases, the indications of surgery should be carefully evaluated. One operative death occurred in our series. In cases that are good indications, however, wide lymph node dissection should be carried out, since metastases occur even to distant lymph nodes, particularly in cases with cancer invasion of the submucosal layer. The histopathologic diagnosis was squamous cell carcinoma in 8 cases, but in one case it was adenocarcinoma of mucus-secreting gland origin in the mid-thoracic esophagus.

Seven cases of leiomyoma and two cases of leiomyosarcoma of the esophagus were presented. Review of the Japanese literature revealed a total of 260 cases of the former and only 35 cases of the latter, including our own cases. They occurred more frequently in males than females, by a ratio of 1.6:1 and 1.8:1, respectively. The patients with leiomyosarcoma distributed in higher age groups. The most frequent symptom was dysphagia in both groups of the cases, but in cases of leiomyosarcoma the incidence was much higher and the duration of the symptom was shorter. About 20% of the patients with leiomyoma were asymptomatic. Although the size of leiomyosarcoma tended to be larger, giant leiomyomas more than 10 cm in diameter were found in 18% of the cases. The lower third of the esophagus was the site of both tumors in over half of the cases, the middle third being the next frequent. The surgical removal by enucleation was the procedure of choice for leiomyoma. However, when either the tumor is densely adherent to the mucosa for considerable length or accidental extensive mucosal tear occurs, esophageal resection is recommended. Postoperative morbidity was minimal and results were generally excellent. On the contrary, esophageal resection including the tumor was indicated for leiomyosarcoma. The long-term results were poor particularly in cases of infiltrating-type lesions, though survival data could not be fully evaluated.

Effects of duodenogastric reflux (DGR) of bile on hexosamine concentrations in gastric mucosa were studied in 17 healthy controls and 133 patients with duodenal ulcer patients before and after surgery. Total bile acid concentration in gastric juice was measured using enzyme method to estimate DGR. Mucosal hexosamine concentration of the biopsy specimens taken from the gastric corpus and antrum was measured according to Boas's method. The operative procedures included selective proximal vagotomy (SPV) with or without pyloroplasty, and extended distal gastrectomy with Billroth I(BI) or II(BII) anastomosis. The rate of DGR were significantly higher in cases after gastrectomy, especially in BII cases than in cases after SPV. In the early postoperative period after SPV with or without pyloroplasty, DGR was increased significantly. However, the reflux rate was decreased gradually to the preoperative level thereafter, suggesting that normal function of gastric emptying might be recovered with time. The hexosamine concentration of the antral mucosa showed clearly an inverse relationship to the changes in DGR rate. These results suggested that SPV could be the more physiological procedure than gastrectomy from the point of DGR.