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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is evaluated as a regional climate model for the simulation of climate indices that are relevant to viticulture in Western Australia’s wine regions at a 5-km resolution under current and future climate. WRF is driven with ERA-Interim reanalysis for the current climate and three global climate models (GCMs) for both current and future climate. The focus of the analysis is on a selection of climate indices that are commonly used in climate–viticulture research. Simulations of current climate are evaluated against an observational dataset to quantify model errors over the 1981–2010 period. Changes to the indices under future climate based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario are then assessed through an analysis of future (2030–59) minus present (1970–99) climate. Results show that when WRF is driven with ERA-Interim there is generally good agreement with observations for all of the indices although there is a noticeable negative bias for the simulation of precipitation. The results for the GCM-forced simulations were less consistent. Namely, while the GCM-forced simulations performed reasonably well for the temperature indices, all simulations performed inconsistently for the precipitation index. Climate projections showed significant warming for both of the temperature indices and indicated potential risks to Western Australia’s wine growing regions under future climate, particularly in the north. There was disagreement between simulations with regard to the projections of the precipitation indices and hence greater uncertainty as to how these will be characterized under future climate.

Although, wind turbines have traditionally been sited in open terrain, there is a growing trend of installing turbines in non-homogeneous terrain, such as urban areas. Recorded urban turbine failures suggest that turbine design has been inadequate for the turbulence experienced at these sites and hence a better understanding of the turbine-loading issues in the built environment is required. This paper compares turbine blade load statistics for inflow turbulence fields based on the open terrain standard Kaimal spectra, as suggested in the standard IEC61400-2 that covers the design and safety standard of small wind turbines, and measured turbulence spectra from a built environment site. The findings show that for extreme, high turbulent intensity winds, the measured spectra predict isolated loading events around twice the magnitude of loads predicted by use of the standard spectra. The work suggests the need for improvements to the standard in order to model the non-Gaussian wind statistics that occur in extreme events such as sudden strong gusts.

Projections of future climate change (1970–1999 compared to 2030–2059) for southwest Western Australia (SWWA) are analysed for a regional climate model (RCM) ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with boundary conditions from three CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs); CCSM3, CSIROmk3.5 and ECHAM5. We show that the RCM adds value to the GCM and we suggest that this is through improved representation of regional scale topography and enhanced land–atmosphere interactions. Our results show that the mean daytime temperature increase is larger than the nighttime increase, attributed to reduced soil moisture and hence increased surface sensible heat flux in the model, and there is statistically significant evidence that the variance of minimum temperatures will increase. Changes in summer rainfall are uncertain, with some models showing rainfall increases and others projecting reductions. All models show very large fluctuations in summer rainfall intensity which has important implications because of the increased risk of flash flooding and erosion of arable land. There is model consensus indicating a decline in winter rainfall and the spatial distribution of this rainfall decline is influenced by regional scale topography in two of the three simulations. Winter rainfall reduction is consistent with the historical trend of declining rainfall in SWWA, which has been attributed in previous research to a reduction in the number of fronts passing over the region. The continuation of this trend is evident in all models by an increase in winter mean sea level pressure in SWWA, and a reduced number of winter front days. Winter rainfall does not show any marked variations in daily intensity.

A high resolution (5 km), single initialization, 30 year (1970–1999) Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (RCM) ensemble for southwest Western Australia (SWWA) is evaluated. The article focuses on the ability of the RCM to simulate winter cold fronts, which are the main source of rainfall for the region, and assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes within the region's cereal crop growing season. To explore uncertainty, a four-member ensemble was run, using lateral boundary conditions from general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3; ECHAM5, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC 3.2), Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) mk3.5. Simulations are evaluated against gridded observations of temperature and precipitation and atmospheric conditions are compared to a simulation using ERA-Interim reanalysis boundary conditions, which is used as a surrogate truth. Results show that generally, the RCM simulations were able to represent the climatology of SWWA well, however differences in the positioning of the subtropical high pressure belt were apparent which influenced the number of fronts traversing the region and hence winter precipitation biases. Systematic temperature biases were present in some ensemble members and the RCM was found to be colder than the driving GCM in all simulations. Biases impacted model skill in representing temperature extremes and this was particularly apparent in the MIROC-forced simulation, which was the worst performing RCM for both temperature and precipitation. The dynamical causes of the biases are explored and findings show that nonetheless, the RCM provides added value, particularly in the spatio-temporal representation of wet season rainfall.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate fire weather for the south-west of Western Australia (SWWA) over multiple decades at a 5-km resolution using lateral boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim reanalysis. Simulations were compared with observations at Australian Bureau of Meteorology meteorological stations and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) was used to quantify fire weather. Results showed that, overall, the WRF reproduced the annual cumulative FFDI at most stations reasonably well, with most biases in the FFDI ranging between –600 and 600. Biases were highest at stations within the metropolitan region. The WRF simulated the geographical gradients in the FFDI across the domain well. The source of errors in the FFDI varied markedly between the different stations, with no one particular variable able to account for the errors at all stations. Overall, this study shows that the WRF is a useful model for simulating fire weather for SWWA, one of the most fire-prone regions in Australia.

Background Hyperglycemia leading to increased oxidative stress is implicated in the increased risk for the development of macrovascular and microvascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods and Results A random subcohort of 349 participants was selected from the DCCT / EDIC (Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications) cohort. This included 320 controls and 29 cardiovascular disease cases that were augmented with 98 additional known cases to yield a case cohort of 447 participants (320 controls, 127 cases). Biosamples from DCCT baseline, year 1, and closeout of DCCT , and 1 to 2 years post‐ DCCT ( EDIC years 1 and 2) were measured for markers of oxidative stress, including plasma myeloperoxidase, paraoxonase activity, urinary F 2α isoprostanes, and its metabolite, 2,3 dinor‐8 iso prostaglandin F 2α . Following adjustment for glycated hemoblobin and weighting the observations inversely proportional to the sampling selection probabilities, higher paraoxonase activity, reflective of antioxidant activity, and 2,3 dinor‐8 iso prostaglandin F 2α , an oxidative marker, were significantly associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (−4.5% risk for 10% higher paraoxonase, P iso prostaglandin F 2α , P =0.0092). In contrast, the oxidative markers myeloperoxidase and F 2α isoprostanes were not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease after adjustment for glycated hemoblobin. There were no significant differences between DCCT intensive and conventional treatment groups in the change in all biomarkers across time segments. Conclusions Heightened antioxidant activity (rather than diminished oxidative stress markers) is associated with lower cardiovascular disease risk in type 1 diabetes mellitus, but these biomarkers did not change over time with intensification of glycemic control. Clinical Trial Registration URL : https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers: NCT 00360815 and NCT 00360893.

Small wind turbines are often sited in more complex environments than the open terrain sites assumed in relevant installation guidelines or in the international small wind turbine design standard IEC61400-2. The built environment is an example of such a complex environment and installation of small wind turbines on the rooftops of high buildings has been suggested by architects and project developers as a potential means of incorporating sustainable energy generation into building design. In the absence of guidelines for installing wind turbines in the built environment, two key wind measurement parameters are the rate at which a data acquisition system (DAQ) samples the sensor, and the period over which the sampled data is averaged. This paper presents the results of the effect of sampling rate and averaging period on turbulence measurements from a monitoring system on a building rooftop, in order to inform the process of developing guidelines. The results will inform the development of a Recommended Practice of wind resource assessment in the built environment, via the International Energy Agency Task 27. The key finding of the paper is that, in general, 10 Hz sampling and 10 min averaging period give upper estimates for turbulence intensity and maximum values of the turbulence power spectra. Using these conservative values in the design of the turbine may be the best approach to ensure that the turbine can handle both the fatigue loads and resonance due to gusts.

The use of small grid-connected wind turbines is increasing within the built environment, yet atmospheric turbulence in this environment is more complex than the open terrain sites on which the turbine design standards are based. The current IEC61400-2 design standard uses stochastic turbulence models adapted from the von Karman and Kaimal power spectra in order to simulate flow fields that are used by designers to predict structural loading on small wind turbines. Both spectra are based on observations in the atmospheric surface layer developed over flat, smooth and uniform terrain yet IEC61400-2 does not offer any modifications of the spectra for more complex terrain such as that which exists in the built environment. This paper investigates the extent to which the von Karman and Kaimal models, as presented in IEC61400-2, are appropriate for use in the design of SWTs installed on the rooftop of a warehouse in the built environment. In particular the paper attempts to gauge how different the turbulence spectra currently used for turbine design are from the actual inflow conditions experienced by the turbines on the roof. The power spectra of all three wind components in neutral and slightly unstable atmospheric conditions at four heights above the rooftop are considered. A degree of misfit function was used to compare von Karman, Kaimal and measured power spectra, as an indicator of model suitability. A sensitivity study was carried out to assess the influence of turbulence length scale and wind direction on the results. The Kaimal spectral function was the better of the existing models in predicting the trends of all wind components and was used as a starting point in developing an approach to modelling turbulence power spectra for a rooftop site in the built environment by incorporating typical length scales at the site.

The authors evaluate a 30-yr (1981–2010) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model regional climate simulation over the southwest of Western Australia (SWWA), a region with a Mediterranean climate, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions. The analysis assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes, using a selection of climate indices, with an emphasis on metrics that are relevant for forestry and agricultural applications. Two nested domains at 10- and 5-km resolution are examined, with the higher-resolution simulation resolving convection explicitly. Simulation results are compared with a high-resolution, gridded observational dataset that provides daily rainfall, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures. Results show that, at both resolutions, the model is able to simulate the daily, seasonal, and annual variation of temperature and precipitation well, including extreme events. The higher-resolution domain displayed significant performance gains in simulating dry-season convective precipitation, rainfall around complex terrain, and the spatial distribution of frost conditions. The high-resolution domain was, however, influenced by grid-edge effects in the southwestern margin, which reduced the ability of the domain to represent frontal rainfall along the coastal region. On the basis of these results, the authors feel confident in using the WRF Model for regional climate simulations for the SWWA, including studies that focus on the spatial and temporal representation of climate extremes. This study provides a baseline climatological description at a high resolution that can be used for impact studies and will also provide a benchmark for climate simulations driven by general circulation models.

The installation of small and medium-size wind turbines on the rooftops of high buildings has been often suggested by architects and project developers as a potential solution for achieving sustainable energy in building design. In such locations, however, because of the presence of buildings and other adjacent obstructions, wind is normally turbulent, unstable and weak, in terms of direction and speed. The use of wind turbines in the built environment poses challenges to overcome, including energy yield reduction due to lower mean wind speeds in urban areas, and environmental impacts because of their close vicinity to people and property. There is a need to understand the inflow wind conditions for a small wind turbine in the built-environment. A resource assessment of the potential wind turbine site in the built environment can determine the wind characteristics including zones of wind acceleration, recirculation, blocking and channelling. This knowledge is crucial for input into the design process of a small wind turbine to accurately predict blade fatigue loads and ensure that it operates safely, and performs optimally in the environment. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is a useful method to model wind flows in order to perform a resource assessment for the application of small wind turbines in a manner that requires less time and investment than a measurement campaign. This paper presents the results of research using a CFD code to model wind flows over the roof of a building and assesses the possibility of combining a CFD package with wind atlas software to form a wind energy resource assessment tool for the application of small wind turbines on the roof of a building. Experimentation with the model shows that the results are particularly sensitive to building height and shape, roof shape, wind direction, and turbine installation height and location. The results will be used to help develop a recommended practice of wind resource assessment in the built environment, in an international collaborative effort via the International Energy Agency Task 27.

Regional climate models are sensitive to the forcing data used, as well as different model physics options. Additionally, the behaviour of physics parameterisations may vary depending on the location of the domain due to different climatic regimes. In this study, we carry out a sensitivity analysis of the weather research and forecasting model to different driving data and model physics options over a 10-km resolution domain in the southwest of Western Australia, a region with Mediterranean climate. Simulations are carried out on a seasonal time-scale, in order to better inform future long-term regional climate simulations for this region. We show that the choice of radiation scheme had a strong influence on both temperature and precipitation; the choice of planetary boundary layer scheme has a particularly large influence on minimum temperatures; and, the choice of cumulus scheme or more complex micro-physics did not strongly influence precipitation simulations. More importantly, we show that the same radiation scheme, when used with different driving data, can lead to different results.

Extreme and persistent reductions in annual precipitation and an increase in the mean diurnal temperature range have resulted in patch scale forest mortality following the summer of 2010–2011 within the Forest study area near Perth, Western Australia. The impacts of 20 bioclimatic indicators derived from temperature, precipitation and of actual and potential evapotranspiration are quantified. We found that spatially aggregated seasonal climatologies across the study area show 2011 with an annual mean of 17.7 °C (± 5.3 °C) was 1.1 °C warmer than the mean over recent decades (1981–2011,- 16.6 °C ± 4.6 °C) and the mean has been increasing over the last decade. Compared to the same period, 2010–2011 summer maximum temperatures were 1.4 °C (31.6 °C ± 2.0 °C) higher and the annual mean diurnal temperature range (Tmax−Tmin) was 1.6 °C higher (14.7 °C ± 0.5 °C). In 2009, the year before the forest mortality began, annual precipitation across the study area was 69% less (301 mm ± 38 mm) than the mean of 1981–2010 (907 mm ± 69 mm). Using Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre mission 5 (SPOT-5) satellite imagery captured after the summer of 2010–2011 we map a broad scale forest mortality event across the Forested study area. This satellite-climatology based methodology provides a means of monitoring and mapping similar forest mortality events- a critical contribution to our understanding the dynamical bioclimatic drivers of forest mortality events.

The complex problems associated with global change processes calls for close collaboration between science disciplines to create new, integrated knowledge. In the wake of global change processes, forests and other natural environments have been rapidly changing, highlighting the need for collaboration and integrative research development. Few tools are available to explore the potential for collaborations in research ventures that are just starting up. This study presents a useful approach for exploring and fostering collaborations between academics working in research teams and organizations comprising multiple science disciplines (i.e., multi-disciplinary). The research aim was to reveal potential barriers, common ground, and research strengths between academics working in a new centre focused on forest and climate change research. This aim was based on the premise that raising awareness and working with this acquired knowledge fosters collaborations and integrative research development. An email survey was deployed amongst the academics to obtain: (i) their understanding of common themes (e.g., climate change, scale of investigation, woodland/forest health/decline), (ii) descriptions of the spatial and temporal scales of their research, and (iii) their approach and perceived contributions to climate change research. These data were analysed using a semi-quantitative content analysis approach. We found that the main potential barriers were likely to be related to differences in understanding of the common research themes, whilst similarities and disciplinary strengths provided critical elements to foster collaborations. These findings were presented and discussed amongst the centre academics to raise awareness and create a dialogue around these issues. This process resulted in the development of four additional research projects involving multiple disciplines. The approach used in this study provides a useful methodology of broader benefit to similar multi-disciplinary research teams and organizations elsewhere.

Mediterranean regions are under increasing pressure from global climate changes. Many have experienced more frequent extreme weather events such as droughts and heatwaves, which have severe implications for the persistence of forest ecosystems. This study reports on a landscape-scale assessment investigating potential associated factors of crown dieback in dominant tree species following an extreme dry and hot year/summer of 2010/11 in the Northern Jarrah Forest of Western Australia. Analyses focussed on the influence of (i) geology, (ii) topography, (iii) climate, and (iv) fire history. The results showed that trees on specific soils were more likely to show canopy dieback. Generally, trees on rocky soils with low water holding capacity were found to be affected more frequently. Other explanatory factors identified that dieback occurred (i) on sites that were close to rock outcrops, (ii) in areas that received a slightly higher amount of annual rainfall compared to the surrounding landscape, (iii) on sites at high elevations and (vi) on steep slopes, and (v) in areas that were generally slightly warmer than their surroundings. These results expand our understanding of how landscape-scale factors contribute to the effects of an extreme drought and heating event in Mediterranean forest ecosystems, and give indications of where changes are likely to occur within the landscape in the future. The analogues with other Mediterranean climate regions make the results of this study transferable and a starting point for further investigations.

Quantifying dieback in forests is useful for land managers and decision makers seeking to explain spatial disturbances and understand the cyclic nature of forest health. Crown condition is assessed as reference to dieback in terms of the density, transparency, extent and in-crown distribution of foliage. At 20 sites in the Yalgorup National Park, Western Australia, a total of 80 Eucalyptus gomphocephala crowns were assessed both in situ (2008) and using two acquisitions (2008 and 2010) of airborne imagery. Each tree was assessed using four crown-condition indices: Crown Density, Foliage Transparency, the Crown Dieback Ratio and Epicormic Index combined into a single index called the Total Crown Health Index (TCHI). The airborne imagery is like value calibrated then classified and modelled using in situ canopy condition assessments resulting in a quantification of crown-condition change over time. Comparison of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and a novel...

Observations from near-simultaneous atmospheric soundings released over contrasting land surfaces in the southwest of Western Australia during December 2005 (austral summer) and August 2007 (late austral winter or early spring) have shown higher planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights over native vegetation as compared to agricultural land. The large-eddy simulation technique is used to investigate the drivers behind these observed differences in PBL, and sensitivity tests are carried out with modified soil moisture and vegetation cover. It is shown that the differences in PBL for the December case are mainly driven by the change in vegetation cover, while a soil moisture gradient also played a role for the August case. The mixing diagram approach is used to further quantify the relative contributions of surface and entrainment fluxes on the growth of the PBL and it is shown that, while dry-air entrainment plays an important role in PBL development, it is the higher surface Bowen ratio which drives the more vigorous PBL development over the native vegetation. It is also shown that the enhanced PBL development over the native vegetation leads to the preferential formation of shallow convective clouds for the August case.

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk options.

The south-west of Western Australia has experienced significant land-cover change as well as a decline in rainfall. Given that most precipitation in the region results from frontal passages, the impact of land-cover change on the dynamics of cold fronts is explored using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System version 6.0. Frontal simulations are evaluated against high resolution atmospheric soundings, station observations, and gridded rainfall analyses and shown to reproduce the qualitative features of cold fronts. Land-cover change results in a decrease in total frontal precipitation through a decrease in boundary-layer turbulent kinetic energy and vertically integrated moisture convergence, and an increase in wind speed within the lower boundary layer. Such processes contribute to reduced convective rainfall under current vegetation cover.

A sea-breeze event in south-west Western Australia is simulated using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) version 6.0. The model is evaluated against high resolution soundings as well as station observations and is shown to reproduce the qualitative features of the sea breeze well. Sensitivity tests are carried out to investigate the effects of historical land-cover change and changes in soil moisture on the dynamics of the sea breeze. It is found that land-cover change alone, i.e., a change from wooded grasslands to bare soil, with no change in soil moisture initialisation, does not significantly alter the overall structure of the sea breeze but results in higher surface winds due to the reduced vegetation roughness length, which leads to enhanced surface moisture advection inland. On the other hand, land-cover change in conjunction with increased soil moisture results in a considerably weaker, shallower, and less penetrative sea breeze, and delays its onset and duration. A sea-breeze scaling analysis highlights the impact of increasing soil moisture on reducing the sea-breeze volume flux scale.

WinMISKAM is evaluated from an emergency response perspective. Comparisons are made between ground level concentrations observed during selected Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) field trials and predictions generated by the model. The model was driven by 5 min averaged on-site meteorological data, and used minimum grid spacing of 0.5 m in both the horizontal and vertical. The code was found to perform well, with 46% of all predictions (paired in time and space) and 83% of arc maxima predictions within a factor of two of observed concentrations. The model was found to perform better for neutral cases than stable cases with 27% of stable case predictions and 57% of neutral case predictions within a factor of two when compared in time and space.

A two-layer steady-state resistance model is compared with routine meteorological data collected from the Western Australian wheat belt during 2000–06. Major difficulties in implementing such a model are the correct parameterization for the incoming longwave radiation and estimation of daily soil moisture, neither of which are routinely measured. These difficulties are addressed by testing parameterizations for incoming longwave radiation calibrated to local conditions and incorporating a soil–water balance model based on routine weather data. The modified model has RMSE and biases ranging from 2.4° to 3.1°C and −0.2° to 0.8°C, respectively, across the wheat belt when comparing all minimum nocturnal temperatures. The model is shown to predict frost events approximately 55% of the time and illustrates that frost damage to foliage may occur when screen temperatures are < 2°C.

In the southwest of Western Australia, the large scale replacement of native perennial vegetation with agriculture based on winter growing annual species leads to a significant change in the surface albedo and roughness. Whilst the redistribution of the surface energy balance impacts on cloud climatology, the reduced roughness of the agricultural area has enhanced the injection of aerosols into the atmosphere through the increased potential for dust devils. Although the native vegetation experiences a higher sensible heat flux, it is the reduced frictional drag of the cleared agricultural lands that enhances the potential for dust devil formation and thus provides an additional source of atmospheric aerosols.

An integral scale of surface heterogeneity is defined in terms of the structure function of surface properties (surface temperature and albedo) and related to flux measurements taken during the NOPEX experiment. The spatial variation of the sensible and latent heat fluxes is shown to be related to this structure function. Although the surface heterogeneity clearly influences the spatial variation of the fluxes, the variance of the fluxes scales under mixed layer scaling and not the heterogeneity of the underlying surface.

Dimensional analysis is used to derive a simple model of private motorised mobility for any urban area based on detailed land use and travel pattern data from a large international sample of cities. This highlights the dependence of vehicle kilometres of travel on urban population and area and shows that despite time, social and cultural differences, urban areas behave in a systematic way. Private motorised mobility, although arising from local decisions, is in the mean determined by the structure of the urban environment. As private motorised mobility is based on vehicle kilometres of travel, which in turn is a surrogate for urban transportation emissions, urban air quality is directly linked to urban structure. This has implications for further research in urban air pollution and supports arguments in favour of the compact city.

Air pollutant recirculation is a common feature of coastal cities as a result of the diurnal variation of the land/sea breeze circulation. On the western coast of Australia, a thermally induced synoptic scale trough interacts with this local circulation to enhance the sea breeze flow, allowing pollutant to penetrate further inland. As well a low wind speed zone formed offshore near the trough axis leads to increased ozone concentrations and the rotation of the trough axis during its onshore movement spreads these higher concentrations of air pollutant over a larger area.

An abrupt change of turbulent fluxes and cloud formation were found during the Bunny Fence experiment in the southwestern Australia at a sharp boundary between agricultural and native vegetation. It is suggested that this is a direct consequence of distinct coherent structures formed within atmospheric sheared convective boundary layers. Using large-eddy simulations (LES), it was found that a boundary-attached roll circulation appears at the sharp vegetation boundary. Model calculations revealed significant horizontal heat and moisture flux from the agricultural to the native vegetation area. The additional moisture flux may explain the observed increased cloud formation over the native vegetation as well as contribute to increased rainfall over the native vegetation.

The replacement of native vegetation for agriculture leads to significant changes in land surface characteristics, such as albedo, surface roughness and canopy resistance. These land surface changes induce changes in the atmospheric boundary layer. From an analysis of case studies and climatological records, it is shown that in Western Australia this change in surface characteristics and in particular, the albedo, has reduced the occurrence of convective cloud formation through limiting the vertical development of the boundary layer.

Three models are applied to estimating evapotranspiration in central Australia, using limited routine meteorological data and the NOAA-14 AVHRR overpass. By minimizing the difference between model predicted surface temperature and satellite derived temperature to adjust the estimated soil moisture, both an instantaneous physically based model and a one dimensional boundary layer simulation yielded consistent results. This highlights the sensitivity of surface temperature to soil moisture and suggests that radiometric surface temperature can be used to adjust simple water balance estimates of soil moisture providing a simple and effective means of estimating large scale evapotranspiration in remote arid regions.

Regional turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat collected over both agricultural and native vegetation in the south west of Australia are presented. Analysis of the energy spectrum illustrates that the most energetic eddies are between scales of 20 metres to 5 kilometres and highlights the spatial distance required to obtain representative regional fluxes. For the sensible heat flux, this distance is a function of measurement height whereas the latent flux is also influenced by surface variability. Statistics of these fluxes highlight that for the unstable surface layer, despite marked differences in the underlying vegetation and the corresponding sources of heat and moisture, heat is transported more efficiently than water vapour from the ground surface.

Three dimensional numerical simulations of the Australian West Coast Trough were conducted using a mesoscale model. These simulations represent the process of formation, development and disappearance of the trough and highlight the role of surface features in trough behaviour. Strong land surface heating strengthens the trough whereas topography and sea surface temperatures are of marginal importance. Diurnal variations in surface heating between the land and ocean lead to the trough line oscillating around the coast whereas its more general eastward movement is synoptically controlled. The sea breeze circulation influences local trough orientation through maritime cooling.

The development and movement of sea breezes under the influence of a thermally induced synoptic coastal trough and coastal terrain are simulated. These simulations are analyzed in the context of an extensive observational data set. The synoptic trough acts to determine the presence and intensity of the sea breeze through the advection of warm air in the surface layer whereas local topography acts to enhance the breeze and turn the low-level flow. Interaction between the sea breeze circulation and the trough assists trough movement across the coastline.

To understand the long-term and short-term variations in monoterpene emissions from Australian native trees and the factors which influence these variations, the seasonal variations in monoterpene emissions for 15 Eucalyptus species as well as the monthly and diurnal variations in monoterpene emissions for E. globulus were investigated using a dynamic flow chamber technique. Distinct seasonal variations both in chemical characteristics of monoterpene emissions and the monoterpene emission rates (normalised to 30°C) were characterised. The normalised monoterpene emission rates showed high emission rates during summer and low rates during other seasons for many Eucalyptus species. For example, the average normalised total monoterpene emission rate on a leaf mass basis (μg g-1 h-1) for E. globulus in summer was 5.4, 2.9 in autumn, 2.3 in spring and 1.5 in winter. The seasonal variation patterns appeared to be species-specific. The maximum values of monthly average total emission rates for E. globulus occurred in January (9.4 μg g-1 h-1 or 1.6 mg m-2 h-1), and the minimum values were in July (0.74 μg g-1 h-1 or 0.16 mg cm-2 h-1). The measured diurnal emission rates showed that there was a maximum emission rate at noon and two emission peaks at midnight and pre-dawn. Leaf temperature could be responsible for the diurnal variation in monoterpene emission rate under nonwetting leaf conditions. Temperature, light and relative humidity showed correlations with the variation in the average normalised monoterpene emission rate in E. globulus, but not with the variation in monoterpene emission composition. The variation in emission composition may be mainly controlled by the factors associated with leaf age. An algorithm for estimating monthly temperature-independent mean monoterpene emission rate from E. globulus was developed.

Monoterpene and isoprene emission rates of 15 Eucalyptus species were measured using an air exchange chamber technique and GC-FID analysis. The normalised monoterpene emission rates (leaf temperature 30°C) of these Eucalyptus species ranged from zero for E. forrestiana to 5.4±2.2 μg g−1 h−1 (or 871±33 μg m−2 h−1) for E. globulus. The dominant monoterpene compounds emitted from these Eucalyptus species were α-pinene, 1,8-cineole, β-pinene and limonene. The normalised isoprene emission rates (leaf temperature 30°C, PAR flux 1000 μmol m−2 s−1) ranged from 5.3±1.6 (E. botryoides) to 69±34 μg g−1 h−1 (E. globulus) or from 0.74 (E. cladocalyx) to 9.5 mg m−2 h−1 (E. rudis). Based on monoterpene emission rate data from four Eucalyptus species (E. globulus, E. robusta, E. rudis, and E. sargentii), there were clear exponential relationships between leaf temperature and monoterpene emission rate for these Eucalyptus species. The mean exponential value (β value) of the four Eucalyptus species was 0.103±0.012 K−1.

Models used for the remote estimation of evapotranspiration are evaluated using aircraft observations over two distinct vegetation regimes in southwestern Australia. Single-source models using an empirically determined excess resistance term performed better than a two-source model, which does not require such a parameterization. The mean absolute difference between measured and estimated values of the sensible heat flux is below 17 W m−2 in comparison with approximately 40 W m−2 for evapotranspiration. Estimates of evapotranspiration depend on the closure of the surface energy balance and incorporate all residual errors in this closure. All models performed better over the agricultural vegetation than over the native vegetation.

A simple model is developed to analyse the surface energy balance from satellite observations for south-western Australia. This illustrates that the replacement of native vegitation with agriculture based on a winter growing annual species has led to a marked reduction in the sensible heat flux to the atmosphere during winter and spring. It is suggested that this reduction may be related to the observed decrease in winter rainfall observed throughout the agricultural region.

Following the clearing of native perennial vegetation for agriculture based on winter growing annual species, the surface characteristics of south-western Australia have been significantly altered. Analysis of the annual variation of these characteristics based on satellite data and a one-dimensional boundary layer model suggests that convective mixing over the cleared land is no longer able to reach the lifting condensation level for a significant period of the year. This implies a decrease in convective cloud formation and a reduction in the convective enhancement of rainfall.

A modified soil-canopy-boundary layer model based on Ek and Mahrt is presented to simulate surface heat fluxes on a daily basis. The model is validated against independent published bare soil data from Agassiz, Canada, and observations taken over sparse and dense vegetation as part of the HAPEX-MOBILHY (Hydrological Atmospheric Pilot Experiment-Modelisation du Bilan Hydrique) experiment. Simulated surface energy components are shown to be in close agreement with the observations, and the sensitivity of the parameterization is evaluated.

Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non-biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions.

Monthly rainfall was correlated with shire wheat yields across the Australian wheat belt and an average correlation coefficient determined for each month. Based on this varying usefulness of rainfall throughout the year, a rainfall index that weights district rainfall over the wheat belt was found strongly to relate to state and national wheat yields. Accuracy of the model was improved by filtering out insignificant and excess rainfall according to the broad scale water holding capacities of regional soils. As one moves clockwise around Australia from the east the soil is less able to store water and truncated winter rainfall is a major problem on poorer soils. Assuming actual rainfall up to the forecast date and average rainfall beyond, hindcasted yields in 1988 and 1989 were within 10% of the final figure 3 months in advance of harvest. A marked trend to early sowing and higher yielding varieties, coupled with increased inputs caused the model to underestimate in 1990, 1991 and 1992. However, at the end of the year model predictions equalled, or were more accurate than official predictions in 4 out of 5 years. Large-area Australian yields appear to be a function of both rainfall amount and distribution, as well as the time of sowing and extent of frost in critical periods.

Land clearing for agricultural purposes in southwest Australia has created a landscape where a 750 km rabbit-proof fence separates 13 million hectares of croplands from the remnant native vegetation to the east. The Bunny Fence Experiment (BuFex) was conducted in the vicinity of the intended vermin-proof boundary in December 2005 and August 2007. The experiment examined the role of land cover change (LCC) on the preferential formation of clouds over the native vegetation that often terminates along the vermin-proof fence as well as the regional rainfall reduction observed in this region. Observations and numerical model analysis show that the formation and development of the west coast trough (WCT), which is a synoptic-scale feature that initiates spring and summertime convection, is impacted by land cover change and that the cloud fields induced by the WCT would extend further west in the absence of the LCC. The surface convergence patterns associated with the wintertime WCT circulation is substantially altered by LCC, due to changes in both WCT dynamics and surface aerodynamic roughness, leading to a rainfall decrease to the west of the rabbit fence. It is found that the LCC in southwest Australia is indeed responsible for preferential formation of clouds over native vegetation and contributes to the observed rainfall reduction in this region.”

A model is developed to evaluate surface heat flux densities using the radiant surface temperature and red and near-infrared reflectances from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor. Net radiation is calculated from an empirical formulation and albedo estimated from satellite observations. Infrared surface temperature is corrected to aerodynamic surface temperature in estimating the sensible heat flux and the latent flux is evaluated as the residual of the surface energy balance. When applied to relatively homogeneous agricultural and native vegetation, the model yields realistic estimates of sensible and latent heat flux density in the surface layer for cases where either the sensible or latent flux dominates.

Southwestern Australia, with a semiarid Mediterranean climate, has been extensively cleared of native vegetation for winter-growing agricultural species. The resultant reduction in evapotranspiration has increased land salinisation. Through detailed meteorological and vegetation measurements over both agricultural and native vegetation, the bunny fence experiment is addressing the impact on the climate of replacing native perennial vegetation with winter-growing annual species. Such measurements will give a better understanding of the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere and are important for improved parameterization of the boundary layer in climate models.

A regional air pollution model, based on the solution of the Langevin equation, is developed and validated for both point and area sources. By incorporating the spatial and temporal variations in motor vehicle emissions for Perth, Western Australia, the model is able to reproduce the observed magnitude and spread of the urban plume.

Driving patterns influence and are influenced by land use patterns and other transport features. Traffic research, particularly driving cycle development has mainly focused on the pure engineering aspects of driving patterns to the neglect of this broader perspective. Consequently the interpretation of results and policy development on urban energy conservation and emissions abatement arising from driving cycle research have been seriously questioned. This study shows how it is possible to closely link instrumented vehicle research to an understanding of the wider urban system, i.e. the ecology of urban driving. To do this a methodology of sampling driving patterns in an urban area is developed and applied to Perth, Western Australia. This defines homogeneous areas within the city in terms of their activity intensity, modal split and social/economic status. The six areas developed provide not only a framework for sampling driving patterns but a way of demonstrating the urban ecological basis of driving patterns.

Homogeneous urban areas defined through an urban ecology approach are used to sample traffic patterns for a series of cross city driving cycles in Perth, Western Australia. These driving cycles, including a whole city cycle, are presented for peak and off-peak driving. The cycles are validated by relating them back to the urban ecology of Perth through a simple model based on traffic events (intersection and vehicle-related events). The implications for developing a more fundamental theory of urban driving are examined, and in particular the link between increased road capacity and lowered fuel use and emissions is seriously questioned.

Observations show that the urban heat island in the atmospheric layer below roof level is most strongly developed during calm, cloudless conditions at night. This paper outlines two versions of a numerical model to describe the cooling of rural and street canyon surfaces under these conditions using surface thermal and radiative properties and the radiative geometry of the canyons. One version uses a full system of differential equations and the other the simpler force-restore approach. The two approaches are shown to be in general agreement and the output of the simpler model is shown to give a faithful representation of cooling of rural and urban surfaces, and therefore heat islands, when compared with field observations.

A comparison between a numerical mesoscale model and the computationally simpler flow model developed as part of the European wind atlas is presented. Despite observed horizontal variations in topographically induced mesoscale forcing which is not incorporated in the simpler model, there is general agreement on an order of magnitude assessment of the wind energy variations. The range of applicability of such simpler wind energy assessment models is shown to be limited to regions where the mesoscale forcing inherent in the base observations has not varied appreciably.

Hydrostatically dominated forced flow over the asymmetric topography of the Darling Scarp, Western Australia, is modelled using a hydrostatic numerical mesoscale model and compared with observations. Simulations reproduce the essential features of wave overturning and the development of a shooting hydraulic flow. This response is dependent on the wind profile but not on the existence of a critical level. the high backsheared environment leads to a high ratio of the Brunt-Vaisala frequency to wind speed throughout the profile, resulting in short wavelengths, high nonlinearity and overturning. With the ratio of the halfwidth of the topography to the boundary-layer depth being small, the flow fields are shown to be sensitive to the boundary layer.

Representative driving cycles across the Perth, Western Australia, metropolitan region illustrate a direct relationship to urban land use. Movement away from the central business district results in fewer traffic events, higher speeds, longer cruise periods and shorter stops. The consequent reduction in root mean square acceleration leads to a corresponding reduction in vehicle emission factors. Urban planning implications are pursued and highlight the importance of public transport as an option in reducing urban air pollution.