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The authors investigate how race and political partisanship affected variations in workplace and non-workplace mobility at three COVID-19 phases—lockdown (2020), reopening (2021), and endemic COVID (2022). They theorize that structural racism compelled relatively greater workplace mobility rates in Black communities during lockdown, and reduced Black workplace mobility during reopening and endemic COVID. By contrast, they posit elite-level anti-science skepticism and its amplification resulted in Trump-voting communities experiencing relatively higher workplace and non-workplace mobility rates than non-Trump-voting areas throughout the pandemic. Regressions primarily using county-level Google Mobility Reports data support the hypotheses, conditioning on state-level fixed effects and county-level urbanity, COVID job-type sorting, demographics, and socioeconomics. The county-level results are complemented by outcomes from novel individual-level COVID lockdown survey data, helping connect the proposed individual-level mechanisms to the county-level findings. The authors conclude that work mobility during COVID was racialized and politicized, offering empirical insights into how systematic disadvantages can lead to increased and unequal precarity during periods of acute economic or social crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The price of oil is highly complex to predict as it is impacted by global demand and supply, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. The accuracy of such predictions, however, has far-reaching implications for supply chain performance, portfolio management, and expected stock market returns. This paper contributes to the oil price prediction literature by evaluating the predictive impact of the US President's communication on Twitter, while benchmarking various Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, including Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF), Word2Vec, Doc2Vec, Global Vectors for Word Representation (GloVe), and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT). These techniques are combined with a deep neural network Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture using a five-day lag for both the oil price and the textual Twitter data. The data was collected during the term of US President Donald Trump, resulting in 1449 days of crude oil price prediction and a total of 16,457 tweets. The study is validated for Brent and West Texas Intermediate blends, using the daily price of a barrel of crude oil as the target variable. The results confirm that including the US President's tweets significantly increases the predictive power of oil price prediction models, and that an LSTM architecture with BERT as NLP technique has the best performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A renewable energy scientist who resigned from his position during the Trump Administration contemplates the similarities—and differences—between his situation and what happened to Oppenheimer in the 1950s during the McCarthy era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the unprecedented level of cooperation and support behind defending Ukraine, no criteria or timeline for Ukraine's accession to NATO were established at the July 2024 NATO summit in Washington. Meanwhile, the window for Ukraine's accession may be closing as NATO member states become more risk averse and transatlantic support for Ukraine more brittle. Establishing the sequence of developments that would make membership ripe would at least restore NATO's control over the process. NATO could explicitly frame the membership option as integral to ending the war and bringing security and stability to the region. Senior officials would need to present a clear account of how and under what assumptions Ukraine's membership in NATO could come about. The West Germany model, though it would not be easy to digest or implement, remains the most plausible one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The British Labour Party turned itself into a plausible party of government with astonishing speed, a mere five years having passed between former party leader Jeremy Corbyn's epic defeat by Boris Johnson in 2019 to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's landslide victory in 2024. The Conservative Party's Brexit obsession and twenty-first-century populism damaged Britain immensely by raising barriers with its nearest and largest economic partners, and by ripping apart an organic, semi-constitutional relationship that also encompassed foreign and security policy. In summer 2024, however, the centre seemed to be holding in the United Kingdom, as well as in France. Whether such a salutary result could be reached in the United States, roiled by an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and a Supreme Court decision that seemed to largely exonerate him for the 6 January 2021 insurrection and facilitate his dictatorial designs, remained to be seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What was the 'alt' in alt-right, alt-lite, and alt-left? Tracing these controversial terms' development over the 2010s, this article interrogates the construction, meaning, and utility of the 'alt' modifier in US politics. Contextualizing the emergence of 'alt' among wider debates about how to spatially conceptualize anti-system politics beyond the left-right spectrum, it argues that 'alt' was used to name a tendency that moved beyond traditional ideological questions about what society should look like, and instead signified a preference about how politics should be done: namely, a rejection of the mainstream norms of political conduct, and an embrace of vulgarity, incivility and an extremely adversarial approach to political opposition. It shows how a popular-cultural understanding of 'alternative' was used to give this approach a countercultural sheen, and maps out the cleavages between groups that the alt/mainstream binary opened up. Finally, it considers the legacy of the 'alt' modifier in contemporary politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contemporary U.S. politics is characterized by a high degree of political polarization and conflict. Consequently, scholars have become increasingly interested in understanding how political factors and events impact different dimensions of health, such as anxiety. Using data from a nationally-representative, two-wave panel survey conducted before and after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, we develop a measure of political anxiety and examine how levels of political anxiety changed following the election. In general, we find that levels of political anxiety decreased following the presidential election. We then examine individual-level factors that influence post-election levels of political anxiety. Those who are highly politically engaged, interested in politics, and who score highly on negative emotionality felt more political anxiety than their counterparts after the election. Those who voted for Donald Trump, conservatives, and African Americans reported feeling less political anxiety than their counterparts following the election. Our findings regarding vote choice and ideology are somewhat surprising in light of previous research on the impact of electoral loss. We conclude with a discussion of what might be driving some of our counterintuitive results and provide ideas for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the critical commentary on Joe Biden, Donald Trump and the 2020 United States presidential election in China's English-language newspaper China Daily. A thematic analysis was conducted of all the relevant opinion and editorial pieces (op-eds) published in China Daily two months before and after the release of the US presidential election results. Thematic analysis showed that China Daily was highly critical of Trump, especially for politicizing the COVID-19 pandemic and exercising restrictions on China. China Daily 's attitudes towards Biden were more varied, with appraisal of Biden's cabinet selections and suggestions for the Biden administration's priorities. The newspaper constructed a Biden/Trump dichotomy that ultimately serves to strengthen the narrative of China as a reliable country in contrast with the hypocritical United States. China Daily situated the commentary on the 2020 US election into the discussion of political stability, the COVID-19 pandemic and the climate change crisis, and frequently used strategies of othering the US and victimizing China to present China as a responsible alternative world power pursuing global cooperation and harmony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On January 6th, 2021, a mob of more than 2,000 Trump supporters stormed the Capital—at his urging—in an effort to halt counting of electoral college votes from the 2020 Presidential Election. Vandalism, injury, and loss of life ensued. Although the actions of Trump and the insurrectionists were alarming, the structural factors that gave rise to this offense are arguably even more troubling. In this paper, we outline three "criminogenic antecedents" that provided individual actors an opportunity to incite insurrection: (1) a lack of clarity and consensus in conceptualizations of crime, which has resulted in an ambiguous, contentious, and limited foundation from which to respond to crimes of the powerful; (2) a resultant pattern of symbolic punishments that fails to control these offenses; and (3) Congressional deviance, which virtually ensures that this environment of nonfeasance will continue. We conclude the analysis by proposing policy ideas that will hopefully strengthen our democracy and reduce the risk of something similar happening in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successful political outsiders from the largest democracies, such as Narendra Modi (India), Donald Trump (USA), Joko Widodo (Indonesia), and Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), have strong leadership images as a reformist. The case of Widodo of Indonesia is unique considering that he rose to power within less than ten years with an image of a servant leader, compared to his counterparts, who tend to be perceived as far right-wing conservatives. Yet, the interplay between leadership brand image and important branding components such as personality and trust remained a gap in the literature. To fill these gaps, this study investigates the brand impact of servant leadership and reformist (perceived qualities, proposed programs, and voters' engagement style) on a leader's brand trust with the mediating effect of brand personality (responsible and active) based on Widodo's case. PLS-SEM is utilized to estimate the model with latent variables and conduct analysis. Results indicate high overall mean scores from all dimensions despite 53.4% of samples (n = 453) not having a political party preference. The study found that servant leadership and reformist image have moderate to substantial effects on brand personality and trust. Responsible persona has proven to mediate most proposed relationships. Implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen the U.S. Government and U.S. military branches produce national space strategy and military doctrinal documents for conducting military operations in or from space. This literature is produced by the White House and individual armed service branches and is often required by congressionally mandated legislation. This work will examine such literature produced during the Trump and Biden Administrations, emphasize the public availability of significant portions of this literature, assess that China and Russia are key rivals of the U.S. in the military space sphere, and will assess congressional reaction to these documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Related Articles Generation X often receives less attention in generational analysis due to its perceived lack of distinctiveness compared to preceding and succeeding generations in the contemporary United States. Politically, there is little justification for distinguishing Generation X as it is commonly defined, yet it harbors significant political divergence between its older and younger cohorts. In terms of partisanship, ideology, and public policy preferences, Generation X is markedly divided, essentially comprising two distinct political generations. Generation X can thus be viewed as the in‐between generation representing the political dividing line between young and old. The dividing point is the birth year of 1973. Due to the considerable differences in the political climate during their formative years, those Gen Xers born before 1973 lean considerably more conservative and Republican than those born in 1973 and afterward.Fisher, Patrick. 2020. “Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate.” Politics & Policy 48(1): 38–68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340.Shaykhutdinov, Renat. 2019. “Socialization, Rationality, and Age: Generational Gaps and the Attitudes toward the Chechen War in Russia.” Politics & Policy 47(5): 931–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12323.Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. “Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?” Politics & Policy 44(5): 889–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the need for increased transparency in the hiring and roles of judicial clerks to enhance public trust in the judiciary. Topics include recent controversies involving judicial clerks, such as the leak of a Supreme Court draft opinion, allegations of racial bias in clerk hiring, and criticisms from high-profile figures like Donald Trump. Additionally, it examines how greater disclosure of clerks' identities could impact judicial accountability, and public confidence.

US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How much should we fear that a president will break the law to pursue power—then use their office to avoid legal accountability? Political scientists studying the presidency have often overlooked the risk of what we here call a criminal president. Donald Trump's presidency spotlighted that risk and has begun to shift the field's focus toward not just presidential power but presidential constraints. We believe this shift should continue. In this review, we aim to set an agenda that makes the danger of a criminal president central to understanding the presidency more broadly. Situating the criminal presidency within wider questions about legal and constitutional constraints on presidential power, we emphasize the unique risks to democracy that a president unbound by law can pose. We call for a greater focus on the legal rules governing the executive branch—especially unitary executive ideas—and the policies needed to hold criminal presidents accountable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump have all used the language of "victory" and "defeat" in the War on Terror despite its ambiguous outcomes. This paper develops the concept of a "victory trap" to explain this phenomenon and its political consequences. On the one hand, the electoral consequences of "losing" wars lead presidents to make claims about "winning" and eventual "victory." On the other hand, strategic realities and public reluctance to bear the costs of total victory result in policymakers facing criticism for being unable to produce results proportionate to their rhetoric. As such, whilst scholarship is clear on the effects of both "losing" and "winning" wars, this paper provides the first exploration of how these dual dynamics play out in practice. In arguing that policymakers are oftentimes politically "trapped," this paper suggests the limits of a range of scholarship on effective (foreign) policy-related messaging that points toward ambiguity or accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To what extent do voters support election observation missions (EOMs) monitoring their elections? Building on but departing from prior work, we argue that citizens' support for election observation missions likely depends on their partisanship. To test our argument, we conduct a survey experiment with a national sample of about 3, 500 Americans in the run-up to the 2020 United States presidential election. Respondents read an adapted news article about the deployment of common interventions in the upcoming election. To test our theoretical expectations, we randomize the partisan source endorsing the interventions. We find that respondents who self-identify as Democrats and Independents/Others are much less likely to support election observers when endorsed by Trump. In addition, Democrats are more likely to support election observers if they read that Biden approves of them. In contrast, Republicans are less likely to support an intervention if they read the same. Our results contribute to ongoing debates about how to promote and defend free elections in backsliding or democratizing countries and, more generally, to the literatures on election observation and public opinion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]