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Here we provide an overview of southern Aotearoa New Zealand’s tsunami hazard to promote awareness, enable enhanced preparation, and to act as a resource for further research. The Southland region of Aotearoa has a long length of coastline exposed to local, regional, and distant tsunami sources. In comparison with regions further north, Southland’s tsunami hazard has received less scientific attention. Information gathered from the National Tsunami Hazard Model 2021, tsunami databases, and local studies, indicates that Southland has a high tsunami hazard. Tsunami heights of 4–12 m can be expected at a 2500-year return period. Earthquakes at the Puysegur and Peru subduction zones are the most significant tsunami sources for Southland. Modelling of tsunamis triggered by great earthquakes at these boundaries suggests inundation of low-lying land is likely, especially around Invercargill and Riverton. Surveys of residents conducted by local authorities suggest tsunami preparedness is inadequate. Geological records of large earthquakes and tsunamis are lacking for Southland, and we acknowledge that such physical evidence has been important for education and preparedness campaigns in other parts of the country. However, we argue that the level of hazard is sufficient to warrant increased collaboration between scientists, emergency managers, and communities to improve preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of coastal areas in Japan for various land uses since the 1960s has contributed to industrial upgrades and improved the efficiency of transportation networks. However, there are concerns about the vulnerability of developments on alluvial plains and reclaimed lands to geological events, like ground subsidence due to liquefaction during large earthquakes. Realistic assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards and evaluation of possible countermeasures require accurate estimation of the amount of subsidence that can be expected from liquefaction at coastal and riverside sites supporting various structures. In this study, to evaluate the amount a river embankment structure might be expected to settle as a result of strong motion from an assumed Nankai Trough great earthquake, we conducted a numerical simulation using the soil–water coupled finite deformation analysis code GEOASIA. We then investigated the effect of the estimated embankment subsidence on tsunami inundation, which was simulated by using nonlinear shallow-water equations and a grid spacing as fine as 3.3 m. The influence of urban structures on the inundated area was taken into account by using a structure-embedded elevation model (SEM). The results showed that subsidence of river embankments and the collapse of parapet walls on top of them would increase both the depth and area of inundation caused by a tsunami triggered by a Nankai Trough scenario earthquake. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating not only earthquake resistance but also vulnerability of coastal and riverside structures to strong motion in tsunami hazard analyses. Furthermore, the importance of tsunami inundation analysis using a SEM for predicting the behavior of tsunami flotsam in urban areas was demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, the effects of multiple cascading hazards on bridge performance and the associated functionalities of road networks must be assessed to develop recovery strategies. This paper presents a framework for assessing the probabilistic connectivity of road networks exposed to both ground motion and tsunami, considering the spatial correlations among hazard intensities. To evaluate the joint probabilities of bridge states (i.e., passable and impassable states) and the probabilistic connectivity of road networks, the total probability theorem was used to integrate spatially correlated seismic and tsunami hazard assessments into the fragility estimates that consider the cascading effects of ground motion and tsunami-induced damages to bridges. For illustrative purposes, the probabilistic connectivity of hypothetical road networks in Japan that could be affected by both ground motion and tsunami during the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake was assessed using the proposed method. The results showed that seismic retrofitting of bridges located along the route where the probability of impassable states due to tsunami is very low can enhance the probabilistic connectivity of entire road networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper provides a comprehensive analysis of utilizing coastal vegetation as a mitigation strategy against tsunamis. It begins with an introduction to the historical impact of tsunamis on coastal vegetation and explores various types of trees known for their tsunami defense characteristics. The paper examines how vegetation can effectively protect against tsunamis based on past events, supported by both experimental and numerical studies. It also delves into innovative concepts proposed by researchers, including hybrid defense systems and optimized plantation layouts, to enhance the protective capabilities of coastal vegetation. Case studies from Aceh and South Java illustrate practical applications of reforestation efforts aimed at tsunami mitigation. Additionally, the paper discusses the challenges and limitations associated with implementing coastal vegetation strategies, emphasizing crucial factors such as maintenance and long-term sustainability.

The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) in the northwestern Indian Ocean can generate large tsunamigenic thrust earthquakes affecting the coastal regions of Pakistan, Iran, Oman, and western India. In this paper, a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is conducted for the MSZ using stochastic tsunami simulations of moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.7–9.1 earthquake scenarios. This study investigates uncertainties associated with earthquake occurrence rate, single-segment (eastern and western MSZ) or two-segment (full MSZ) rupture scenarios, source geometry, and slip heterogeneity. The total number of simulated source models is 15,000. This study presents two major categories of results: stochastic source models and ranges of 475, 975, and 2475-year tsunami heights. For instance, tsunami heights generated by Mw 8.5‒8.7 stochastic sources of western MSZ vary between 1 m and 10 m with a mean of ~ 4.5 m in the affected areas. The tsunami heights are sensitive to the source models' characteristics, such as location of the large slip areas, bathymetry of the nearshore area, and the location of bays. Considering different occurrence rates results in significant variability in the estimated 475, 975, and 2475-year tsunami heights. For example, 2475-year tsunami height in Chabahar is in the range of 3‒7.4 m at 10 m water depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the tsunami hazard of the maximum possible earthquake along the south coast of China. GPS‐derived surface velocities around the Manila Trench have been used to clarify the active tectonics and estimate the seismic potential of Manila subduction, where catastrophic tsunamis may originate and cause devastating damage to the surrounding area of the South China Sea. Based on the maximum potential earthquake magnitude estimated from the accumulated seismic moment, more than 100,000 possible tsunami scenarios with varying epicenters have been simulated considering the slip heterogeneity. The impact of several uncertain parameters including the release period and release ratio of accumulated seismic moment are investigated, as well as some assumptions in the model of tsunami generation. Although different release conditions for accumulated seismic moment result in a significant impact on the value of tsunami height, similar trend in spatial distribution has been shown. The results show that the tsunami wave height along the south coast of China has an increasing trend from west to east, with the maximum tsunami wave height exceeding 10 m corresponding to the potential earthquake Mw = 9.1 with a 1,000‐year release period. The impact of fault slip heterogeneity on tsunami wave height is significant. Compared to uniform slip, considering stochastic slip will increase the average tsunami wave height by about 15%. Considering locking distribution will increase the average tsunami wave height by about 20%–30% and also increase the maximum tsunami wave height by about 60%–70%. Plain Language Summary: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the tsunami hazard of the maximum possible earthquake along the south coast of China. The Manila Trench is the potential tsunami source. The first problem to be solved in the study is how large the maximum earthquake is in the Manila Trench. Therefore, the study first uses the horizontal velocity data observed by GPS stations to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The rate of accumulated energy is estimated based on the degree of fault locking, and then the maximum magnitude of earthquakes that may occur on the fault with different release periods is estimated. The subsequent issue to be solved is how large the tsunami generated by the maximum earthquake is. In order to fully consider the randomness of slip, the study simulated more than 100,000 possible tsunami scenarios for each earthquake magnitude. The results indicate that only considering uniform slip will significantly underestimate the tsunami hazard along the south coast of China. Key Points: Fault locking inverted by GPS‐derived surface velocities is used to estimate the seismic potential and as constraints on stochastic slipTsunami scenarios with varying epicenters and the slip heterogeneity are simulated for each estimated maximum earthquake magnitudeSensitivity analysis has been conducted considering the release period and the release ratio of accumulated seismic moment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The devastating consequences of tsunamis on coastal infrastructure have highlighted the urgent need for effective disaster risk reduction strategies. To mitigate tsunami disasters, the insurance industry plays a vital role in implementing risk transfer measures by providing financial protection against asset damage. However, the current research on catastrophe insurance policies for coastal infrastructure lacks consideration of climate change effects. It is essential to take into account the non-stationary effects of sea-level rise to develop long-term tsunami disaster mitigation measures and promote socioeconomic resilience in coastal communities. This paper aims to provide an insurance portfolio optimization framework for coastal residential buildings subjected to tsunamis considering non-stationary sea-level rise effects based on a stochastic simulation approach. A spatiotemporal probabilistic sea-level rise hazard assessment is carried out by utilizing available climate models and considering several emission scenarios. Tsunami propagation analyses under various sea-level rise cases are performed to evaluate the time-variant tsunami hazard curves based on Monte Carlo simulation. A life cycle-based stochastic insurance claim model associated with the cumulative loss of building assets is developed based on a non-stationary compound renewal process. Finally, a sample average approximation method is leveraged to estimate the optimum basic insurance premium rate by maximizing the insurer's profit under a cost-constrained insurance purchase decision of homeowners. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to multiple municipalities situated in the tsunami-prone region of Kochi Prefecture, Japan. Sea-level rise substantially decreases the maximum profits of tsunami insurers and increases the premium rate and ruin probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, alternatively to the megathrust, we identify upper plate normal faults orthogonal to the trench as a possible tsunami source along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. We study the Morne Piton Fault system, a trench-perpendicular upper crustal fault affecting the Lesser Antilles forearc at the latitude of Guadeloupe. By the means of seismic reflection, high resolution bathymetry, Remotely Operated Vehicle images and dating, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton Fault at 0.2 mm.yr-1 since fault inception (i.e. 7 Ma), dividing by five previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evidence a metric scarp with striae at the toe of the Morne Piton Fault system suggesting a recent fault rupture. We estimate a fault rupture area of ~ 450-675 km2 and then a magnitude range for the seismic event around Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. We present results from a multi-segment tsunami model representative for the worst-case scenario which gives an overview of what could happen in terms of tsunami generation if the whole identified Morne Piton Fault segments ruptured together. Our model illustrates the potential impact of local tsunamis on the surrounding coastal area as well as local bathymetric controls on tsunami propagation as (i) shallow water plateaus act as secondary sources and are responsible for a wrapping of the tsunami waves around the island of Marie-Galante, (ii) canyons are focusing and enhancing the wave height in front of the most touristic and populated town of the island, (iii) a resonance phenomenon is observed within Les Saintes archipelago showing that the waves' frequency content is able to perturbate the sea-level during many hours after the seismic rupture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research was conducted to analyze land use change from 2016 to 2022 and their impact on the tsunami hazard zone on the coast of Kebumen Regency. For land use change analysis, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and statistical tests were applied to Sentinel-2A satellite imagery. The tsunami hazard was simulated using tsunami inundation modeling based on land use spatial data and DEMNAS processed using GIS. Land use changes occurred significantly in the study area, especially in Mirit District. The Southern Cross Road (JJLS) and coastal morphological conditions influence land use change patterns. Land use changes impact changes in the tsunami hazard zone, especially in the use of fir forests and shrimp ponds. The research findings can be used as input for developing a tsunami disaster mitigation plan and detailed spatial planning on the coast of Kebumen Regency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript describes the design, development, and implementation of a prototype system based on seismogeodetic techniques, consisting of a low-cost MEMS seismometer/accelerometer, a biaxial inclinometer, a multi-frequency GNSS receiver, and a meteorological sensor, installed at the Doñana Biological Station (Huelva, Spain) that transmits multiparameter data in real and/or deferred time to the control center at the University of Cadiz. The main objective of this system is to know, detect, and monitor the tectonic activity in the Gulf of Cadiz region and adjacent areas in which important seismic events occur produced by the interaction of the Eurasian and African plates, in addition to the ability to integrate into a regional early warning system (EWS) to minimize the consequences of dangerous geological phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of the article is the theoretical development of the probabilistic model for a Poisson-type tsunami sequence that is consistent with data on the manifestations of historical events, in order to obtain estimates of the accuracy of the tsunami activity parameters. An example of a tsunami recurrence function, which is the most important quantitative characteristic of tsunami activity for the Port of Malokurilskoye, one of the places in the South Kuril Islands region with the most reliable tsunami height dataset, was created on the basis of a theoretical essay. An explanation for the weak statistical stability of all large values of the tsunami heights, especially for the largest one in the series of observations, was given based on the probability density functions of the ranked tsunami heights. In particular, it means, for example, that the maximum tsunami height recorded at a certain location during a 30-year observation period should be correlated with a wide range of possible recurrence periods of about 10 to 100 years. Synthetic catalogs of the tsunami heights, built for the Port of Malokurilskoye, showed that the tsunami height datasets with a duration of at least 250 or 500 years without gaps are needed to obtain the tsunami activity parameters with an acceptable accuracy of 10 or 5 %. The most important results are the analytical equations for the variances of estimates of the tsunami activity parameters, which characterize the accuracy of these estimates, depending on a priori unknown values of the tsunami activity parameters and the amount of data used.

Abstract Background Tsunamis are rare events compared to other disasters but have devastating consequences. In the last 100 years, more than 24 tsunamis and more than 235,000 fatalities have occurred globally. Indonesia has a high risk of a tsunami disaster. Since the devastating 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, much research and preparatory work have been done to reduce the impact of future tsunamis in Indonesia, including in the province of Aceh, especially along the western coast where West Aceh is located. This coastal area was destroyed by a tsunami as high as 15–30 m, resulting in the loss of life, housing, tourist areas, industrial areas, and other public facilities. Given that tsunami disasters are rare and sometimes occur long in advance, human memory and awareness are reduced, making research on the level of tsunami awareness of disasters a challenging task. Method Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is a method that has been developed to predict tsunami hazards with a return period of hundreds to thousands of years, beyond the limited availability of historical data. The PTHA method can provide important information that supports tsunami risk management measures. This study aims to estimate recurrence period-based tsunami risk on the west coast of the district of Aceh Besar using the PTHA method. In this study, the source of the tsunami is caused by fault activity at sea. Seven tsunami scenarios based on fault parameters (earthquakes of magnitudes Mw 8.0 to 9.2 with interval 0,2) with the fault location focusing on the Aceh-Andaman Mega Thrust Segment, as applied in this study. This segment was a similar source to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that created a rupture area along a distance of 1155 km, with six parts of the fault. Result The maximum inundation distance reached 6 km for the flat area, with a flow depth of 13 m. The site has a cliff that is close to the shoreline, with an inundation distance shorter than the distance across the flat area. With an arrival time of less than 25 min, it is recommended to have an evacuation building and evacuation road in a wide inundated area, and an arrangement of hills close to the beach as an evacuation area, in order to reduce the number of casualties. For 100 years return period or exceedance probability rate 0.01, the average flow depth on the coast may exceed 5 m, and the maximum flow depth for a 1000-year return period or annual probability of 0.001 is 12 m. With the potential tsunami in the future, continuous tsunami drills and tsunami education are needed so that people can maintain an awareness of the threat posed by tsunamis.

The Lesser Antilles subduction zone marks the convergence between the Caribbean Plate and the oceanic Atlantic part of the America Plate. A specificity of this subduction is the development of a huge accretionary prism, the Barbados complex. As other subduction zones, the Lesser Antilles one has the potential to produce megathrust-associated earthquakes and related tsunamis. This study evaluates the potential hazard of tsunami scenarios along this eastern boundary of the Caribbean Plate, taking into account its specificities. We define six scenarios along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone including three M w 7.5 , 8.0 and 8.5 earthquake models, in both northern and southern parts of the arc. We incorporate in tsunami simulations the effect of sediment amplification in tsunami generation. In the southern half, the thick sediments pile, related to tectonic accretion, appears much more effective than the much thinner accumulation characterizing the northern half. The bed shear stress is also computed in this study as it is an important factor in sediment transport which can show the potential locations for sediment movement by tsunamis. Our results indicate the ability of scenario earthquakes to produce powerful tsunamis. The impacts of northern scenarios on Guadeloupe could be severe (maximum tsunami wave height of > 5 m ), whereas the impacts from southern scenarios are relatively less strong (maximum wave amplitude of < 5 m ). The tsunami waves produced by M w 8.0 and 8.5 appear able to inundate the coast of Sainte-Anne, Guadeloupe, up to 2 km . The distributions of bed shear stress from northern scenarios suggest that the offshore Leeward Islands could be potentially prone to sediment transport as possible tsunami deposits have been found in the region in former geological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is used to estimate tsunami recurrence and hazard for the South Kuril Islands. The method is a further development and improvement of the Regional Statistical Tsunami Model (RSTM) developed earlier [Kaistrenko (Pure Appl Geophys 168:2065–2069, 2011) and (Pure Appl Geophys 171:3527–3538, 2014)], which differs from the commonly used variations of PTHA and is entirely based on historical tsunami observations. The method operates with tsunami height datasets exceeding a threshold height of 0.5 m and ranked in height, for each coastal location of the region. This condition is crucial; incorrect or imprecise results can arise from incomplete datasets. Based on observations from 63 coastal locations in the South Kuril region, it is shown that all ranked tsunami height data provided by existing tsunami catalogues for a period of 67 years, can be described by a single regional recurrence function. This function contains two types of scale parameters: (1) the asymptotic frequency, f, of major tsunamis in the study region, and (2) the set of characteristic tsunami heights, H*, for all locations considered. The dependences of the parameters f and H* on the observation period and amount of data were examined. As an example of the method, we construct a preliminary tsunami hazard map for the South Kuril Islands and analyze the possible errors of the estimated tsunami parameters and resulting tsunami recurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The immense impacts of tsunamis can inflict substantial damage on coastal infrastructure systems during their lifetime and lead to considerable economic loss. However, with the increasing intensity and variability of sea‐level rise due to climate change, evaluations of the life‐cycle tsunami risk associated with cumulative loss have become increasingly complex since tsunami hazards are time‐dependent. In addition, the number of earthquake events and the corresponding arrival times are substantially uncertain. Therefore, an accurate life‐cycle tsunami risk assessment methodology should be established to appropriately develop disaster mitigation measures. This paper provides a novel life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunami hazards under non‐stationary sea‐level rise effects due to climate change. The cumulative loss of a building portfolio is evaluated through a compound renewal process based on earthquake interarrival time uncertainties and time‐dependent risk. The earthquake interarrival times are modeled using a non‐Poisson process based on historical data. Tsunami hazard curves that consider the effects of sea‐level rise, estimated based on climate models, are obtained with tsunami propagation analysis. The time‐variant annual risk is estimated based on reliability and building unit loss. Finally, a numerical procedure is proposed to estimate the life‐cycle tsunami risk of building portfolios. An illustrative example is provided by applying the framework to several municipalities in the Kochi Prefecture of Japan to assess the effects of climate change on the life‐cycle tsunami risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to compute the most likely fault slips that result in a seafloor deformation inducing a large tsunami wave. We model tsunamis induced by bathymetry change using the shallow water equations on an idealized slice through the sea. The earthquake slip model is based on a sum of multivariate log-normal distributions, and follows the Gutenberg-Richter law for seismic moment magnitudes ranging from 7 to 9. For a model problem inspired by the Tohoku-Oki 2011 earthquake and tsunami, we quantify annual probabilities of differently sized tsunami waves. Our method also identifies the most effective tsunami mechanisms. These mechanisms have smoothly varying fault slip patches that lead to an expansive but moderately large bathymetry change. The resulting tsunami waves are compressed as they approach shore and reach close-to-vertical leading wave edge close to shore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunami risk is considered as the probability of a particular coastline being struck by a tsunami that may cause a certain level of impact (destructiveness). The impact metric of a tsunami is expressed in terms of tsunami intensity values, K, assigned on a 12-degree scale. To calculate tsunami risk we are based on the tsunami history of the region codified in tsunami catalogues. The probabilistic model adopted was used successfully for hazard assessment of earthquakes (Kijko et al. in Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 2016) and of tsunamis (Smit et al. in Environmetrics 30:e2566, 2019) by considering seismic magnitude and tsunami height as metrics of the respective hazards. In this model, instead of hazard metrics we inserted risk metric, i.e. wave impact in terms of intensity values. The procedure allows utilization of the entire data set consisting not only from the complete (recent) part of tsunami catalogue but also from the highly incomplete and uncertain historical part of the catalogue. Risk is assessed in terms of probabilities of exceedance and return periods of certain intensity values in specific time frames. We applied the model using catalogues for the Mediterranean and connected seas. Sensitivity analysis showed that using complete data sets generally provided more realistic results than using entire data sets. Results indicated that the risk level depends on the seismicity level and not on the size of individual ocean basin. The highest tsunami risk level was found in the eastern Mediterranean (EM), with a significantly lower risk in the western Mediterranean (WM). In the Marmara Sea (MS), the tsunami risk was low, and the lowest was in the Black Sea (BS). The risk in the small Corinth Gulf (CG, Central Greece) was comparable to that of WM. The return period of damaging tsunamis (i.e. K ≥ 7) was 22 years in the entire Mediterranean basin and 31, 118, 135, 424, and 1660 years in the EM, WM, CG, MS, and BS basins, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is recognised as a major global threat which is expected to impact more than a quarter of all people currently residing in Pacific Island countries. While most research in the last decade has focused on understanding the dynamics and impacts of future coastal flooding from extreme sea levels, the effects of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on exacerbating tsunami hazards are not well understood. Far-field or distant sourced tsunamis tend to have relatively lower impacts in Pacific Island states compared with locally sourced events, but there is limited understanding of how the impact of far-field tsunamis changes over time due to RSLR. Using the hydrodynamics software BG-Flood, we modelled the Tōhoku-oki tsunami from propagation to inundation in Samoa under incremental SLR to examine the effects that RSLR has on changing the exposure of the built environment (e.g., buildings) to a far-field tsunami. Outputs of maximum tsunami inundation and flow depth intensities which incorporate incremental SLR were then combined with digital representations of buildings and depth-damage functions in the RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling software to assess the changes in building exposure over time. Results suggest that the impacts of Tōhoku-oki-type far-field tsunamis become significant once RSLR reaches 1 m above present levels. Present-day building exposure will increase by approx. 500% with 1 m RSLR by 2080–2130, and approx. 2350% with 2 m RSLR by as early as 2130–2140. These findings provide useful insights for application to tsunami hazard risk assessments under changing sea level conditions in analogous island environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas of Indonesia that are close to tectonic plates are vulnerable to earthquakes and generated tsunamis. The Munjungan Coast South of East Java-Indonesia is such a vulnerable tsunami area. This coastal area, besides being close to tectonic plate boundaries, has the shape of an open bay which makes it particularly vulnerable to tsunami impacts and, therefore, in need of strict disaster mitigation measures. Assisted Geographic Information System (GIS) applications with map overlay techniques and by the Arc View 3.3 software program can help in the taking of measures that can reduce the impact of tsunami hazards. The processed product of the GIS methodology in the form of a tsunami hazard zoning map, as well as designated evacuation route maps, can be helpful tools in tsunami impact mitigation, when a significant and potentially tsunamigenic earthquake occurs. The present study used a survey method and area sampling to obtain a better understanding of the public’s perceptions and attitudes in responding more effectively to the potential of tsunami disasters. Based on the interpretation of the zoning map for the classification of disaster- prone areas and route maps for evacuation, four villages were identified as being more prone to tsunami disasters. The condition of the population in these four disaster-prone villages, despite their higher level of knowledge about tsunamis, was not followed by their perceptions and proper attitudes towards mitigating the potential danger. People on the coast of Munjungan did not appear to be particularly concerned about the tsunami hazard.

Tsunami hazard imposed by possible rupture of splay faults is important as it may significantly intensify tsunami heights locally. The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) in the northwestern Indian Ocean can generate large thrust earthquakes that could trigger significant tsunamis. In this paper, the effects of possible rupture of splay faults on the tsunami hazards of eastern MSZ are studied by developing a framework that uses stochastic earthquake rupture models and considers uncertainties related to rupture location, rupture geometry, seismic moment split ratio, earthquake slip asperity location within a fault plane, and earthquake slip heterogeneity. To quantify these uncertainties, 484 different parameter combinations of tsunami sources are considered systematically. The geometry of splay faults is developed using the most recent marine seismic surveys of the tectonic structure of the MSZ. A moment magnitude of 8.6 is considered as a scenario magnitude. The results of this study are generated in two parts, by considering average sources and stochastic sources. Results show significant local amplification of the maximum tsunami heights due to splay faults. For instance, the maximum wave height in Pasni, Pakistan can be amplified by a factor of four due to a single splay fault rupture scenario of average sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“Tsunami Alert Efficiency” is the rapid, accurate and reliable conduct of tsunami warning messaging, from the detection of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes to dissemination to all people under threat, and the successful survival of every person at risk on the basis of prior awareness and preparedness.

This study presents new stochastic source models for the Cascadia subduction earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, which can trigger massive tsunamis along the shoreline of Vancouver Island. An extensive set of 5,000 stochastic source models is generated for the moment magnitude ranges between 8.1 and 9.1, and regional tsunami hazard simulations are performed at the grid resolution of 270 m. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations are characterized by evaluating the regional tsunami hazard metric that is based on the geometric mean of the maximum wave heights along the Vancouver Island coast. Subsequently, using the probability distribution of the regional tsunami hazard parameter, representative source models are identified by capturing the average as well as rare rupture cases and then detailed tsunami hazard results, such as maximum wave height maps and wave profiles at specific locations, are examined. Numerical results highlight the directivity effects of tsunami generation and wave propagation on tsunami hazards along the Canadian Pacific coast and the earthquake source characterizations in terms of fault geometry and earthquake slip distribution. The developed source models and tsunami simulation results serve as the first step for performing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for the Cascadia subduction zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake tsunamis generated from subaerial and subaqueous mass movements can pose a significant hazard to lakeshore communities. However, current knowledge of lake tsunamis is derived from a limited number of studies, primarily in low-seismicity settings such as Switzerland and Norway. Underrepresented are studies from active tectonic settings, characterised by high relief, high sediment yields, and frequent seismic shaking that is likely to produce episodic subaerial and subaqueous mass movements with the potential to produce lake tsunamis. This study seeks to address this gap in our understanding through an examination of four lakes in the active tectonic region of New Zealand's South Island (Lake Rotoiti, Lake Rotoroa, Lake Brunner, and Lake Mapourika). High-resolution multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution seismic reflection data were used to identify and characterize the landforms and sediment associations of large and potentially tsunamigenic mass movements. A qualitative evaluation of the tsunamigenic capacity of the identified mass movements was undertaken using established empirical relationships between mass movement volumes and run-up heights. The bathymetric and seismic surveys have revealed 16 previously undocumented mass movements capable of generating lake tsunami. Fluvial deltas and bedrock slopes proximal to active faults were the most prevalent mass movement source areas, with the largest mass movements identified being a 49 Mm3 delta collapse and a 110 Mm3 subaerial mass movement in Lake Rotoroa. The findings suggest the origin and characteristics of the potentially tsunamigenic mass movements identified were strongly influenced by the high rates of delta progradation, frequent seismic activity, and the preconditioning and displacement by active faults, typical of active tectonic settings. Our results provide new insights into the heterogeneity of lacustrine mass movements and the drivers of lake tsunami hazards in underrepresented high-seismicity regions. The findings illustrate the importance of developing regionally specific insights into lake tsunami susceptibility and may inform the direction of more detailed lake tsunami hazard assessment in New Zealand. [Display omitted] • Multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection surveys were conducted on four lakes in tectonically active New Zealand. • 16 previously undocumented large and potentially tsunamigenic mass movement deposits were identified. • High sedimentation rates and frequent seismic shaking control large lacustrine mass movements in active tectonic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Portugal has had several large tsunamis in the past, yet Oeiras municipality has not implemented mitigation strategies and awareness to the general public, to the authors' knowledge. In addition, Oeiras has 10 beaches that are very popular among residents and tourists, who can become at high risk of a potential tsunami if they do not evacuate from the low ground areas on time. Thus, the tsunami numerical model of the 1755 event was carried out to calculate the inundation, complemented with a field survey, in order to assess the tsunami evacuation conditions of the beaches. The results show the tsunami hits Oeiras municipality 26 to 36 min after the earthquake, inundating all the beaches. The local tsunami hazard classification is Low on 3 beaches, Moderate on 1 beach, High on 5 beaches, and Critical on 1 beach. In addition, there are no tsunami evacuation signs to guide the people to move to higher ground. Therefore, it is important to conduct mitigation strategies to avoid and reduce fatalities in a future tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Al-Hoceima region is threatened by tsunami hazard because of its location in the coastal area of the Mediterranean Sea, besides the shallow seismically active region south of the Alboran Sea. Therefore, the current study presents a novel model to map coastal flooding potential zones due to tsunami wave run-up in Nekor bay using three natural parameters (distance from coastline, altitude and slope) in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Furthermore, the coastal flooding simulation using 4 scénarios (1, 2, 3, 4m) based on the run-up elevation according to tsunami wave elevation (TWE) literature of the study area is used to confirm the DAS model result, and to estimate the potential impacts. The result of the DAS model revealed that 1 km from the coast to the Nekor plain is the most exposed to the impact of tsunamis generated south of the Alboran Sea. The coastal flooding simulation confirmed the DAS result, and the damage estimation of the urban area and the agriculture was respectively 2 and 98% for run-up 1 m, 3% and 97% for run-up 2m, 4% and 96% for run-up 3m, and for the worst case scenario of 4 m was 3% and 97%. Therefore, the results obtained show that the major potential impact of coastal flooding in Nekor plain is the salinization of agricultural land. Finally, we propose a sustainable solution utilizing a controlled forest along the coast to reduce future tsunami impacts on Nekor bay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas of Indonesia that are close to tectonic plates are vulnerable to earthquakes and generated tsunamis. The Munjungan Coast South of East Java-Indonesia is such a vulnerable tsunami area. This coastal area, besides being close to tectonic plate boundaries, has the shape of an open bay which makes it particularly vulnerable to tsunami impacts and, therefore, in need of strict disaster mitigation measures. Assisted Geographic Information System (GIS) applications with map overlay techniques and by the Arc View 3.3 software program can help in the taking of measures that can reduce the impact of tsunami hazards. The processed product of the GIS methodology in the form of a tsunami hazard zoning map, as well as designated evacuation route maps, can be helpful tools in tsunami impact mitigation, when a significant and potentially tsunamigenic earthquake occurs. The present study used a survey method and area sampling to obtain a better understanding of the public’s perceptions and attitudes in responding more effectively to the potential of tsunami disasters. Based on the interpretation of the zoning map for the classification of disasterprone areas and route maps for evacuation, four villages were identified as being more prone to tsunami disasters. The condition of the population in these four disaster-prone villages, despite their higher level of knowledge about tsunamis, was not followed by their perceptions and proper attitudes towards mitigating the potential danger. People on the coast of Munjungan did not appear to be particularly concerned about the tsunami hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is recognised as a major global threat which is expected to impact more than a quarter of all people currently residing in Pacific Island countries. While most research in the last decade has focused on understanding the dynamics and impacts of future coastal flooding from extreme sea levels, the effects of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on exacerbating tsunami hazards are not well understood. Far-field or distant sourced tsunamis tend to have relatively lower impacts in Pacific Island states compared with locally sourced events, but there is limited understanding of how the impact of far-field tsunamis changes over time due to RSLR. Using the hydrodynamics software BG-Flood, we modelled the Tōhoku-oki tsunami from propagation to inundation in Samoa under incremental SLR to examine the effects that RSLR has on changing the exposure of the built environment (e.g., buildings) to a far-field tsunami. Outputs of maximum tsunami inundation and flow depth intensities which incorporate incremental SLR were then combined with digital representations of buildings and depth-damage functions in the RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling software to assess the changes in building exposure over time. Results suggest that the impacts of Tōhoku-oki-type far-field tsunamis become significant once RSLR reaches 1 m above present levels. Present-day building exposure will increase by approx. 500% with 1 m RSLR by 2080–2130, and approx. 2350% with 2 m RSLR by as early as 2130–2140. These findings provide useful insights for application to tsunami hazard risk assessments under changing sea level conditions in analogous island environments.

Definition: "Tsunami Alert Efficiency" is the rapid, accurate and reliable conduct of tsunami warning messaging, from the detection of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes to dissemination to all people under threat, and the successful survival of every person at risk on the basis of prior awareness and preparedness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Jalisco region in western Mexico is one of the most seismically active in the country. The city of Puerto Vallarta is located at Bahía de Banderas on the northern coast of Jalisco. Currently there exists a Seismic Gap in the Northern coast of Jalisco (Vallarta Gap). Historically seismogenic tsunamis have affected the coast of Jalisco. In this work, we assess the risk due to a local tsunami in the city of Puerto Vallarta as a function of the interaction between hazard and vulnerability. We model the tsunami hazard, generation and propagation, using the initial conditions for a great earthquake (Mw ≥ 8.0) similar to those that occurred in 1787 at Oaxaca and in 1995 at Tenacatita Bay, Jalisco. Vulnerability is estimated with available data for the years 2010–2015 with sociodemographic variables and the location of government, commercial or cultural facilities. The area with the highest vulnerability and risk is between the valleys of the Ameca and Pitillal Rivers, extending to a distance greater than 5.1 km from the coastline and affecting an area of 30.55 km2. This study does not consider the direct damage caused by the tsunamigenic earthquake and aftershocks; it assumes that critical buildings in the region, mostly hotels, would not collapse after the earthquake and could serve as a refuge for its users. The first (It) tsunami wave arrives to Puerto Vallarta (Cuale) 19 min after the earthquake with a height (Hi) of 3.7 m; the run-up (At) arrives 74 min after earthquake with a height (Hr) of 5.6 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunami-related fires may occur in the inundation area during a huge tsunami disaster, and woody debris produced by the tsunami can cause the fires to spread. To establish a practical method for evaluating tsunami-related fire predictions, we previously developed a method for evaluating the tsunami debris thickness distribution that uses tsunami computation results and static parameters for tsunami numerical analysis. We then used this evaluation method to successfully reproduce the tsunami debris accumulation trend. We then developed an empirical building fragility function that relates the production of debris not only to inundation depth but also to the topographic gradient and the proportion of robust buildings. Using these empirical evaluation models, along with conventional tsunami numerical analysis data, we carried out a practical tsunami debris prediction for Owase City, Mie Prefecture, a potential disaster area for a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake. This prediction analysis method can reveal hazards which go undetected by a conventional tsunami inundation analysis. These results indicate that it is insufficient to characterize the tsunami hazard by inundation area and inundation depth alone when predicting the hazard of a huge tsunami; moreover, more practically, it is necessary to predict the hazard based on the effect of tsunami debris. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, the most popular approach for assessing the tsunami hazard on a coast is the PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment). In this preliminary study, we develop one of the variants of the SPTHA (Seismic PTHA) method, adapted to solving local tsunami zonation problems for near-field sources. The approach is applied to assessing the tsunami hazard of the Bechevinskaya Cove located on the eastern coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula in the northern part of Avachinsky Bay. We propose the method, algorithms and results of probabilistic assessment of the cove's tsunami hazard in order to determine the safest water areas, in which the values of the intensity measures (IMs) of tsunami will not exceed the specified threshold values with the given Average Return Periods (ARPs). The method includes analysis of seismotectonics of the region, construction of a catalog of model tsunamigenic earthquakes, determination of their statistical characteristics, scenario numerical modeling of the dynamics of tsunami waves, calculations of the values of IMs that can be exceeded with the given annual rates (ARs), namely, on average 1 time in 100, 500, 1000 years. Spatial distributions of the maximum wave heights and maximum velocities are provided for the ARs. Three configurations of the water area are considered, including the possibility of constructing protective structures, and conclusions are drawn about their influence on the tsunami hazard assessments in the cove. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On May 13, 2018, a seismic swarm began to occur east of Mayotte Island, Comoros Archipelago. Only two days after, a strong Mw 5.9 earthquake shook the island and awakened the fears of local people to be struck by a tsunami, in the aftermath of the catastrophic 2004 Indian Ocean event. This paper does not claim to represent a detailed tsunami hazard study, but tries to provide keys about the potential of tsunami generation in the area, explaining point by point the capacity of each source, earthquake, submarine volcanic eruption and landslide to produce perturbation of the sea. Numerical modelling of landslide is presented herein to discuss the relative immunity offered by the coral barrier reef to the island populated coastline to moderate scenarios

Costa Rica has been affected by several local and distant tsunamis in the past, but the historical information is scarce and incomplete. Its Pacific coast stretches for over a thousand kilometers, and tsunami hazard has never been evaluated for its full extent. Numerical modeling of tsunami propagation and inundation is a useful tool to assess tsunami hazard, particularly in cases with limited historical information available. Here, we perform a first estimation of tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast of Costa Rica from seismogenic sources, by numerical propagation of 57 local and distant tsunamis to a depth of 20 m. The results of our study identified tsunami sources that are particularly threatening for Costa Rica and determined locations with higher tsunami hazard. For the analysis, the Pacific coast of Costa Rica was divided into segments and subsegments based on differences in continental slope morphology. Subsegments with higher tsunami heights were Southwest Nicoya Peninsula and West Osa Peninsula, and in a lesser extent North Guanacaste, North Nicoya Peninsula, and Central Pacific. Regions with long and gentle slopes and narrow continental shelf were affected by higher tsunami waves, due to more efficient tsunami energy transmission to the shelf and reduced energy loss while traveling through a narrow shelf. On the opposite, steeper continental slopes reflected most of the tsunami energy, causing smaller tsunami heights nearshore, regardless of the shelf width. Nevertheless, other effects played a major role, like curved coastlines that focused tsunami energy, wave refraction, interference, and trapped edge waves. Distant tsunamis dominated the threat, with tsunamis coming from the Tonga-Kermadec and the Colombia-Ecuador Trenches causing the greatest heights due to directivity, and arrival times of about 15 h and 75 min, respectively. Local tsunamis had short arrival times but a localized impact, mainly at the shoreline in front of the generation region but were also affected by tsunami focusing, wave refraction, and edge waves. Outer rise and Osa sources caused the lowest impact within local sources. These results provide a guide for emergency planners to prioritize coastal locations and tsunami sources for tsunami preparedness actions and warning protocols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social vulnerability illuminates differences in human capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. It varies over space and time and among social groups, largely due to variations in socioeconomic and demographic features. The Makran Subduction Zone is one of the known active seismic sources that can generate devastating shaking and tsunami disasters in District Gwadar, Pakistan, such as a large earthquake of moment magnitude 8.1 in 1945. This study presents the first social vulnerability index study for District Gwadar in relation to imminent earthquake-tsunami hazards and shows how SoVI concepts and indicators are adopted. SoVI follows a place-based framework that was originally adopted in developing social vulnerability index for the USA. To assess social vulnerability to earthquakes and tsunamis in Gwadar, we evaluate a social vulnerability index at village level. Using a principal component analysis, 16 village-level indicators are condensed to five factors that explain 64.2% of the variance in the data. Although different factors contribute to the social vulnerability in each village, the overall results confirm the social and economic disparities among villages and reflect differential vulnerability to natural hazards at local to regional scales. Finally, a map of social vulnerability index is compared with seismic-tsunami hazard maps to identify the communities living in risky zones. The approaches and results presented in this study will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to disaster risks and to develop effective risk reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of disaster waste is one of the most important performance indicators in quantifying the resilience of a community. In fact, disaster waste can have significant negative impacts on the environment in affected regions and hinder the postdisaster recovery process. Appropriate disaster waste management should be developed in Japan before the occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake. It is expected that the seismic and tsunami intensities caused by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake will be substantially larger than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this paper, a risk‐based methodology is presented for estimating the amount of disaster waste generated by both the ground motions and the tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. First, Monte Carlo simulation‐based probabilistic hazard analyses are performed to obtain seismic and tsunami hazard curves considering the uncertainty associated with fault movement along the Nankai Trough. Structural damage data associated with past earthquakes are used to develop seismic and tsunami fragility curves. The amount of disaster waste generated from a single structure is defined as the generation unit and is determined based on past disasters. Finally, with the aid of a geographic information system, the risk of disaster waste can be estimated using the hazard and fragility curves and the generation units. As an illustrative example, the risk curves and expected values associated with disaster waste in Mie Prefecture, Japan, are estimated based on the proposed framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunami hazard is typically assessed from inundation flow depths estimated from one or many earthquake scenarios. However, information about the exact time when such inundation occurs is seldom considered, yet it is crucial for pedestrian evacuation planning. Here, we propose an approach to estimating tsunami hazard by combining tsunami flow depths and arrival times to produce a nine-level, qualitative hazard scale that is translated into a simple tsunami hazard map. To do this, one of the most populated regions of the coast of Chile is considered as the sample site, using a large set of 2,800 tsunamigenic sources from earthquakes with magnitudes in the range Mw8.6−9.2, modeled from generation to inundation at high resolution. Main outcomes show great dependency of the hazard categorization on the tsunami time arrival, and less to the flow depths. Also, these results demonstrate that incorporating different sources of variability such as different earthquake magnitudes and locations as well as stochastic slip distributions is essential. Moreover, this proof-of-concept exercise clearly shows that the qualitative hybrid categorization of the tsunami hazard allows for its more effective understanding, which can be beneficial for designing mitigation strategies such as evacuation planning, and its management.

Abstract The precise location of the seismic source of 1755 CE Great Lisbon earthquake is still uncertain. The aim of this work is to use an onland sedimentary record in southern Portugal to test and validate seismic sources for the earthquake. To achieve this, tsunami deposit thicknesses from over 150 cores collected at Salgados in southern Portugal were compared to the results of a tsunami sediment transport model (Delft3D‐FLOW) that simulates tsunami propagation, inundation, erosion, and deposition. Five different hypothetical seismic sources were modeled with varying bed roughness coefficients to assess how well they reproduced observed patterns of tsunami deposit thicknesses and dune. Modeled and observed historical tsunami arrival times were also used to test different earthquake sources. Based on these comparisons, three modeled earthquake sources were able to reproduce the observed data, suggesting they should be regarded as somewhat more likely sources for the 1755 earthquake in contrast to four other modeled sources. The fault closest to shore (Marquês de Pombal) yielded the best correlations between model and observations.

Portugal has had several large tsunamis in the past, yet Oeiras municipality has not implemented mitigation strategies and awareness to the general public, to the authors’ knowledge. In addition, Oeiras has 10 beaches that are very popular among residents and tourists, who can become at high risk of a potential tsunami if they do not evacuate from the low ground areas on time. Thus, the tsunami numerical model of the 1755 event was carried out to calculate the inundation, complemented with a field survey, in order to assess the tsunami evacuation conditions of the beaches. The results show the tsunami hits Oeiras municipality 26 to 36 min after the earthquake, inundating all the beaches. The local tsunami hazard classification is Low on 3 beaches, Moderate on 1 beach, High on 5 beaches, and Critical on 1 beach. In addition, there are no tsunami evacuation signs to guide the people to move to higher ground. Therefore, it is important to conduct mitigation strategies to avoid and reduce fatalities in a future tsunami.

Coastal reinforced concrete (RC) bridges have the potential to be subjected to tsunami hazards within their service life. On the other hand, the time-dependent chloride-induced corrosion will degrade the performance of the bridges. Few efforts have been made to investigate the life-cycle performance of deteriorating RC bridges subjected to tsunami hazards. In this paper, the time-dependent collapse fragility analysis is conducted to investigate the life-cycle performance of deteriorating RC bridges subjected to tsunami hazards. With corrosion modeling, the time-dependent deterioration of material properties as well as shear capacity deterioration of the columns are considered. Uncertainties from materials are accounted for in developing numerical bridge models. Nonlinear tsunami pushover analysis is used to investigate the bridge damage under tsunami loading. Tsunami collapse failure curves are constructed assuming a lognormal distribution, and the time-dependent tsunami collapse fragility curves can be efficiently calculated with the quadratic model for the median and standard deviation of tsunami intensity, that is, flow velocity. Time-dependent collapse fragility analysis is conducted for a three-span, two-column bent RC bridge. Results indicate that the bridge columns can fail in shear for low inundation depth flow and high corrosion levels. Collapse failure probability of the bridge increases with the flow depth and a clear jump of collapse failure probability for inundation depth from below to above the deck can be observed. The collapse failure probability also increases over time due to corrosion effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]