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Aims Prognostic impacts of serum uric acid (UA) levels in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) remain inconclusive, especially for the whole range of serum UA levels. Methods and results In the Chronic Heart Failure Registry and Analysis in the Tohoku District‐2 (CHART‐2) study, we enrolled 4652 consecutive patients with CHF and classified them into four groups based on baseline serum UA levels by the Classification and Regression Tree: G1 (9.2 mg/dL, N = 251). Mean age was 71 ± 12, 69 ± 12, 68 ± 13, and 69 ± 15 years in G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively (P

AIMS We aimed to examine temporal changes in left ventricular (LV) structures and their prognostic impacts in patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). METHODS AND RESULTS In the Chronic Heart Failure Analysis and Registry in the Tohoku District-2 (CHART-2) study (n = 10 219), we divided 2698 consecutive HFpEF patients (68.9 ± 12.2 years, 32.1% female) into three groups by LV hypertrophy (LVH) and enlargement (LVE) at baseline: (-)LVH/(-)LVE (n = 989), (+)LVH/(-)LVE (n = 1448), and (+)LVH/(+)LVE (n = 261). We examined temporal changes in LV structures and their prognostic impacts during a median 8.7-year follow-up. From (-)LVH/(-)LVE, (+)LVH/(-)LVE to (+)LVH/(+)LVE at baseline, the incidence of the primary outcome, a composite of cardiovascular death or HF admission, significantly increased. Among 1808 patients who underwent echocardiography at both baseline and 1 year, we noted substantial group transitions from baseline to 1 year; the transition rates from (-)LVH/(-)LVE to (+)LVH/(-)LVE, from (+)LVH/(-)LVE to (-)LVH/(-)LVE, from (+)LVH/(-)LVE to (+)LVH/(+)LVE, and from (+)LVH/(+)LVE to (+)LVH/(-)LVE were 27% (182/671), 22% (213/967), 6% (59/967), and 26% (44/170), respectively. In the univariable Cox proportional hazard model, patients who transitioned from (+)LVH/(-)LVE to (+)LVH/(+)LVE or remained in (+)LVH/(+)LVE had the worst subsequent prognosis [hazard ratio (HR) 4.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.09-6.99, P

Aims Asymptomatic patients with structural heart diseases are classified as a population at high risk for heart failure (HF) in Stage B. However, limited data are available regarding incidence and related factors of de-novo HF (DNHF) considering competing risk in this population. Methods and results In 3362 Stage B patients (mean age 68 yrs, male 76%) from the CHART-2 Study (N = 10,219), we examined incidence of death and DNHF, defined as the first episode of either HF hospitalization or HF death, and factors related to DNHF. Results During the median 6.0-year follow-up, 627 deaths (31/1000 person-years) and 293 DNHF (15/1000 person-years) occurred. Among the 627 deaths, 212 (34%) and 325 (52%) were specified as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths, respectively. During the follow-up of 271 DNHF hospitalizations, we observed 124 deaths, including 65 (52%) cardiovascular and 47 (40%) non-cardiovascular deaths. The competing risk model showed that age, diabetes mellitus, stroke, atrial fibrillation, diastolic blood pressure, hemoglobin levels, estimated glomerular filtration ratio and left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly associated with DNHF. Bayesian structural equation modeling showed that many of these cardiac and non-cardiac variables contribute to DNHF by affecting each other, while diabetes mellitus was independently associated with DNHF. Conclusions Stage B patients had a high incidence of DNHF as well as that of death due to both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes. Thus, management of Stage B patients should include multidisciplinary approaches considering both cardiac and non-cardiac factors, in order to prevent DNHF as well as non-HF death as a competing risk. Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00418041 .

Background We have recently demonstrated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) dynamically changes over time with prognostic impacts in Stage C/D patients, namely, those who have a current or past history of heart failure (HF). However, it is unknown whether this is also the case in asymptomatic Stage B patients, namely, those who have a risk of HF, but do not have a history of HF. Methods In our CHART-2 Study (N = 10,219), we enrolled 4005 Stage B patients and divided them into 3 groups by LVEF; preserved EF (pEF, LVEF ≥50%, N = 3526), mid-range EF (mrEF, LVEF 41–49%, N = 302), and reduced EF (rEF, LVEF ≤40%, N = 177). We examined the prognostic impacts of LVEF transitions among the 3 groups in comparison with 4477 patients with Stage C/D HF. Results Stage B were characterized by less severe clinical status and better prognosis compared with Stage C/D. Stage B in mrEF and rEF at baseline dynamically transitioned to other groups at 1-year, whereas those in pEF unchanged; at 1-year, mrEF transitioned to pEF/rEF by 50/16%, and rEF transitioned to pEF/mrEF by 25/31%, respectively, whereas pEF transitioned to mrEF/rEF by only 3.6/0.7%, respectively, which were consistent with findings in findings with Stage C/D. Although LVEF decrease was directly associated with all-cause mortality in both the Stage B and Stage C/D with pEF, factors related to LVEF changes were different between the 2 groups. Conclusions In Stage B, LVEF dynamically changes with prognostic impacts as in Stage C/D, whereas different determination factors may be involved in the 2 stages. Clinical trial registration: Chronic Heart Failure Analysis and Registry in the Tohoku District (CHART)-2 (NCT00418041).

Background The benefits of antithrombotic therapy (ATT) for atrial fibrillation (AF) are occasionally offset by major bleeding complications. However, the clinical benefits and risks of ATT in AF patients, with special references to comorbidities, such as heart failure (HF), coronary artery disease (CAD), and the patterns of AF, remain to be fully elucidated. Methods A total of 3221 consecutive AF patients from our Chronic Heart Failure Analysis and Registry in the Tohoku District-2 (CHART-2) Study (N = 10,219) were divided into 4 groups based on ATT at enrollment; no-ATT, anticoagulant alone, antiplatelet alone, and both of them (AC&AP). Then, efficacy and safety outcomes including thromboembolic events, major bleeding, and mortality were evaluated among the 4 groups. Results Anticoagulant monotherapy was associated with reduced risk of ischemic stroke in patients with but not in those without HF, CAD, or non-paroxysmal AF. Although there was no significant difference in major bleeding among the 4 groups, a composite of thromboembolism and major bleeding occurred more frequently in the AC&AP group, even in combination with anticoagulants and single antiplatelet therapy, indicating that the combination therapy is more harmful than anticoagulant monotherapy for AF patients, especially for those with HF or CAD. Lastly, no-ATT group was associated with worse prognosis compared with other 3 groups. Conclusions These results indicate that ATT is beneficial for AF patients particularly for those with HF, CAD, or non-paroxysmal AF and that among ATT, anticoagulant monotherapy may be most profitable for both clinical benefits and risks for AF patients.

Background Few risk models are available to predict future onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) in workers. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for new-onset AF, using annual health checkup (HC) data with electrocardiogram findings. Methods and Results We retrospectively included 56,288 factory or office workers (mean age = 51.5 years, 33.0% women) who underwent a HC at a medical center and fulfilled the following criteria; age ≥ 40 years, no history of AF, and greater than 1 annual follow-up HC in 2013–2016. Using Cox models with the Akaike information criterion, we developed and compared prediction models for new-onset AF with and without the Minnesota code information. We externally validated the discrimination accuracy of the models in a general Japanese population cohort, the Hisayama cohort. During the median 3.0-year follow-up, 209 (0.37%) workers developed AF. Age, sex, waist circumference, blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and γ-GTP were associated with new-onset of AF. Using the Minnesota code information, the AUC significantly improved from 0.82 to 0.84 in the derivation cohort and numerically improved from 0.78 to 0.79 in the validation cohort, and from 0.77 to 0.79 in the Hisayama cohort. The NRI and IDI significantly improved in all and male subjects in both the derivation and validation cohorts, and in female subjects in both the validation and the Hisayama cohorts. Conclusions We developed useful risk model with Minnesota code information for predicting new-onset AF from large worker population validated in the original and external cohorts, although study interpretation is limited by small improvement of AUC.

Background Prognostic impact of serum uric acid (UA) levels in patients with heart failure (HF) remains to be fully elucidated, as previous studies were inconclusive with small study sample sizes. Furthermore, although the J-curve relationship between serum UA levels and cardiovascular events has been suggested in patients with hypertension and those with diabetes, it is still unclear whether this is also the case for patients with HF. Purpose We examined the prognostic impacts of serum UA levels in HF patients, using the database of our Chronic Heart Failure Registry and Analysis in the Tohoku district (CHART)-2 Study, the largest multicenter, prospective, observational cohort study for cardiovascular patients with HF or those at risk of HF in Japan (N=10,219). Methods First, we determined the cut-off value of serum UA levels at baseline by the Classification and Regression Tree (CART). Then, we divided 4,652 consecutive HF patients in the CHART-2 Study into 4 groups; G1 ( Results Mean age in G1, G2, G3, and G4 was 71±12, 69±12, 68±13, and 69±15 years, respectively (P Prognostic impacts of serum UA levels Conclusions Both decreased and increased UA levels were associated with increased incidence of death and HF hospitalization in HF patients.

Background Although B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are released in equimolar proportions, their values differ depending on clinical conditions. A useful conversion formula between BNP and NT-proBNP remains to be developed for the clinical use. Aim To develop a conversion formula from BNP to NT-proBNP. Methods In the derivation cohort, 923 patients with chronic heart failure, in whom both BNP and NT-proBNP values were available, were enrolled from our SUPPORT (Supplemental Benefit of ARB in Hypertensive Patients with Stable Heart Failure using Olmesartan) trial. The validation cohort included 1154 consecutive patients with or at risk of cardiovascular diseases, in whom both BNP and NT-proBNP values were measured simultaneously at Tohoku University Hospital. We regressed log10 NT-proBNP onto log10 BNP and factors influencing BNP and NT-proBNP values. Results We adopted the model with the smallest Akaike information criterion consisting of log10 BNP, age, sex, BMI, creatinine clearance (CCr), hemoglobin, and atrial fibrillation (AF). As compared with the previously reported conversion formulas, the present conversion formula utilized non-linear transformation by spline function, and exhibited the strongest correlation between actual and calculated values of NT-proBNP (r = 0.928). The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the present conversion formula was smallest compared with the previously reported conversion formulas, indicating that this formula most effectively converts BNP values to NT-proBNP values. Conclusions We have developed a useful conversion formula from BNP to NT-proBNP values, using age, sex, BMI, CCr, hemoglobin, and AF, which could be widely used in daily clinical practice.