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Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, current practice of drought indicators selection for specific application, and drought risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural hazard that can cause a wide range of impacts affecting the environment, society, and the economy. Assessing and reducing vulnerability to these impacts for regions beyond the local scale, spanning political and sectoral boundaries, requires systematic and detailed data regarding impacts. This study presents an assessment of the diversity of drought impacts across Europe based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a unique research database that has collected close to 5000 impact reports from 33 European countries. The reported drought impacts were classified into major impact categories, each of which had a number of subtypes. The distribution of these categories and types was then analyzed over time, by country, across Europe and for particular drought events. The results show that impacts on agriculture and public water supply dominate the collection of drought impact reports for most countries and for all major drought events since the 1970s, while the number and relative fractions of reported impacts in other sectors can vary regionally and from event to event. The data also shows that reported impacts have increased over time as more media and website information has become available and environmental awareness has increased. Even though the distribution of impact categories is relatively consistent across Europe, the details of the reports show some differences. They confirm severe impacts in southern regions (particularly on agriculture and pub20 lic water supply) and sector-specific impacts in central and northern regions (e.g. on forestry or energy production). As a text-based database, the EDII presents a new challenge for quantitative analysis; however, the EDII provides a new and more comprehensive view on drought impacts. Related studies have already developed statistical techniques to evaluate the link between drought indices and impacts using the EDII. The EDII is a living database and is a promising source for further research on drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks across Europe. A key result is the extensive variety of impacts found across Europe and its documentation. This data coverage may help drought policy planning at national to international levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amplified warming at high latitudes over the past decades has led to changes in the boreal and arctic climate system, such as structural changes in high latitude ecosystems and soil moisture properties. These changes trigger land-atmosphere feedbacks, through altered energy partitioning in response to changes in albedo and surface water fluxes. Local scale changes in the arctic and boreal zone may propagate to affect large scale climatic features. In this study, MODIS land surface data are used with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.5.1) and Noah LSM, in a series of experiments to simulate the influence of structural vegetation changes over a Northern European boreal ecosystem. Emphasis is placed on surface energy partitioning and near surface atmospheric variables, in order to investigate changes in atmospheric response due to observed and anticipated structural vegetation changes. We find that a northward migration of evergreen needle leaf forest into tundra regions causes an increase in latent rather than sensible heat fluxes, increased near surface temperatures and boundary layer height. Shrub expansion in tundra areas has only small effects on surface fluxes. However, it influences near surface wind speeds and boundary layer height. Northward migration of mixed forest across the present southern border of the boreal forest has largely opposite effects on surface fluxes and the near surface atmosphere, and acts to moderate the overall mean regional effects of boreal forest migration on the near surface atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. A controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems) to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily climate data (1958-2001) of 1495 grid cells across the world were selected that represent Köppen-Geiger major climate types. These data were fed into a hydrological model. Nine realizations of physical catchment structure were defined for each grid cell, i.e. three soils with different soil moisture supply capacity and three groundwater systems (quickly-, intermediary- and slowly-responding). Hydrological drought characteristics (number, duration and standardized deficit volume) were identified from time series of daily discharge. statistics showed that the equatorial and temperate climate types (A- and C-climates) had about twice as many drought events as the arid and polar types (B- and E-climates) and the duration of more extreme droughts were about half the length. Soils were found to have a minor effect on hydrological drought characteristics, whereas groundwater systems had major impact. Groundwater systems strongly controlled the hydrological drought characteristics of all climate types, but particularly those of the wetter A-, C- and D-climates because of higher recharge. The median number of drought for quickly-responding groundwater systems was about three times higher than for slowly-responding systems, which substantially affected the duration, particularly of the more extreme drought events. Bivariate probability distributions of drought duration and standardized deficit for combinations of Köppen-Geiger climate, soil and groundwater system showed that responsiveness of groundwater systems is as important as climate for hydrological drought 25 development. This urges for an improvement of subsurface modules in global hydrological models to be more useful for water resources assessments. A foreseen higher spatial resolution would enable a better hydrogeological parameterization and inclusion of lateral flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work has been carried out within the framework of NOPEX - a NOrthern hemisphere climate Processes land surface EXperiment. Its purpose is to describe the spatial variability of groundwater levels and soil moisture content and their influence on runoff generation in small catchments in a landscape dominated by boreal forest and till soils, which is characteristic for the Nordic countries. Kinematic wave approximations have been used to describe saturated subsurface flow andsaturation overland flow in hillslopes with a thin soil layer overlying a relatively impermeable bedrock. Simultaneous analyses of catchment runoff, groundwater-table depths and soil moisture in the unsaturated zone have been performed by including the kinematic wave descriptions in a precipitation-runoff model. The results have been comparedwith observed hydrographs and spatial patterns of groundwater levelsand soil moisture content in two small experimental catchments. Results from this study indicate that is reasonable to apply the same parameter set when describing hydrological processes in computational elements with similar characteristics at a scale of about 1 km2 in the NOPEX area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]