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An analytical semiempirical model of the bow shock based on theoretical MGD calculations, accurate analytical solutions, and experimental data continues to be developed. The model parameters have a clear physical meaning. For cases in which the magnetic field of the solar wind is directed along its velocity or is perpendicular to the velocity vector, analytical expressions that allow calculating the parameters of the bow shock—the distance to the subsolar point, the radius of the curvature, and the bluntness at the subsolar point—are obtained via renormalization of the previously developed detailed gas-dynamic model. For the case in which the magnetic field vector is perpendicular to the solar wind velocity vector, it is shown that it is sufficient for an analytical description of the bow shock surface to approximate its parameters in two perpendicular planes.

We present a reduced magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mathematical model describing the dynamical behavior of highly conducting plasmas with frozen-in magnetic fields, constrained by the assumption that, there exists a frame of reference, where the magnetic field vector, $\mathbf{B}$, is aligned with the plasma velocity vector, $\mathbf{u}$, at each point. We call this solution "stream-aligned MHD" (SA-MHD). Within the framework of this model, the electric field, $\mathbf{E} = -\mathbf{u} \times \mathbf{B} \equiv 0$, in the induction equation vanishes identically and so does the electromagnetic energy flux (Poynting flux), $\mathbf{E}\times\mathbf{B}\equiv0$, in the energy equation. At the same time, the force effect from the magnetic field on the plasma motion (the Ampere force) is fully taken into account in the momentum equation. Any steady-state solution of the proposed model is a legitimate solution of the full MHD system of equations. However, the converse statement is not true: in an arbitrary steady-state magnetic field the electric field does not have to vanish identically (its curl has to, though). Specifically, realistic tree-dimensional solutions for the steady-state ("ambient") solar atmosphere in the form of so-called Parker spirals, can be efficiently generated within the stream-aligned MHD (SA-MHD) with no loss in generality, Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures. Submitted to The Astrophysical Journal

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using line-of-sight magnetograms and parameters of active regions in two data products covering Solar Cycle 23 and 24, we train and evaluate two deep learning algorithms -- CNN and LSTM -- and their stacking ensembles. The decisions of CNN are explained using visual attribution methods. We have the following three main findings. (1) LSTM trained on data from two solar cycles achieves significantly higher True Skill Scores (TSS) than that trained on data from a single solar cycle with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (2) On data from Solar Cycle 23, a stacking ensemble that combines predictions from LSTM and CNN using the TSS criterion achieves significantly higher TSS than the "select-best" strategy with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (3) A visual attribution method called Integrated Gradients is able to attribute the CNN's predictions of flares to the emerging magnetic flux in the active region. It also reveals a limitation of CNN as a flare prediction method using line-of-sight magnetograms: it treats the polarity artifact of line-of-sight magnetograms as positive evidence of flares., Comment: 31 pages, 16 figures, accepted in the ApJ

Periodic comets move around the Sun on elliptical orbits. As such comet 67P/Churyumov Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P) spends a portion of time in the inner solar system where it is exposed to increased solar insolation. Therefore given the change in heliocentric distance in case of 67P from aphelion at 5.68 AU to perihelion at similar to 1.24 AU the comet's activity the production of neutral gas and dust undergoes significant variations. As a consequence during the inbound portion the mass loading of the solar wind increases and extends to larger spatial scales. This paper investigates how this interaction changes the character of the plasma environment of the comet by means of multifluid MHD simulations. The multifluid MHD model is capable of separating the dynamics of the solar wind ions and the pick up ions created through photoionization and electron impact ionization in the coma of the comet. We show how two of the major boundaries the bow shock and the diamagnetic cavity form and develop as the comet moves through the inner solar system. Likewise for 67P although most likely shifted back in time with respect to perihelion passage this process is reversed on the outbound portion of the orbit. The presented model herein is able to reproduce some of the key features previously only accessible to particle based models that take full account of the ions' gyration. The results shown herein are in decent agreement to these hybrid type kinetic simulations.

A versatile suite of computational models, already used to forecast magnetic storms and potential power grid and telecommunications disruptions, is preparing to welcome a larger group of users.

The nucleus of the Jupiter-family comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko was discovered to be bi-lobate in shape when the European Space Agency spacecraft Rosetta first approached it in 2014 July. The bi-lobate structure of the cometary nucleus has led to much discussion regarding the possible manner of its formation and on how the composition of each lobe might compare with that of the other. During its two-year-long mission from 2014 to 2016, Rosetta remained in close proximity to 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, studying its coma and nucleus in situ. Based on lobe-specific measurements of HDO and H2O performed with the ROSINA Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS) on board Rosetta, the deuterium-to-hydrogen (D/H) ratios in water from the two lobes can be compared. No appreciable difference was observed, suggesting that both lobes formed in the same region and are homogeneous in their D/H ratios.

In 2004, the Rosetta spacecraft was sent to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko for the first ever long-term investigation of a comet. After its arrival in 2014, the spacecraft spent more than two years in immediate proximity to the comet. During these two years, the ROSINA Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS) onboard Rosetta discovered a coma with an unexpectedly complex chemical composition that included many oxygenated molecules. Determining the exact cometary composition is an essential first step to understanding of the organic rich chemistry in star forming regions and protoplanetary disks that are ultimately conserved in cometary ices. In this study a joint approach of laboratory calibration and space data analysis was used to perform a detailed identification and quantification of CHO-compounds in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The goal was to derive the CHO-compound abundances relative to water for masses up to 100 u. For this study, the May 2015 post-equinox period represent the best bulk abundances of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. A wide variety of CHO-compounds were discovered and their bulk abundances were derived. Finally, these results are compared to abundances of CHO-bearing molecules in other comets, obtained mostly from ground-based observations and modelling., Comment: This document is the unedited Author's version of a Submitted Work that was subsequently accepted for publication in ACS Earth and Space Chemistry, copyright $\copyright$ American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work see https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.9b00094

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces estimates of the photospheric magnetic field, which are a critical input to many space weather modeling and forecasting systems. The magnetogram products produced by HMI and its analysis pipeline are the result of a per-pixel optimization that estimates solar atmospheric parameters and minimizes disagreement between a synthesized and observed Stokes vector. In this paper, we introduce a deep-learning-based approach that can emulate the existing HMI pipeline results two orders of magnitude faster than the current pipeline algorithms. Our system is a U-Net trained on input Stokes vectors and their accompanying optimization-based Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) inversions. We demonstrate that our system, once trained, can produce high-fidelity estimates of the magnetic field and kinematic and thermodynamic parameters while also producing meaningful confidence intervals. We additionally show that despite penalizing only per-pixel loss terms, our system is able to faithfully reproduce known systematic oscillations in full-disk statistics produced by the pipeline. This emulation system could serve as an initialization for the full Stokes inversion or as an ultrafast proxy inversion. This work is part of the NASA Heliophysics DRIVE Science Center (SOLSTICE) at the University of Michigan, under grant NASA 80NSSC20K0600E, and will be open sourced.

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)., Comment: 105 pages, 36 figures, in press

The ratios of the three stable oxygen isotopes 16O, 17O, and 18O on the Earth and, as far as we know in the Solar system, show variations on the order of a few per cent at most, with a few outliers in meteorites. However, in the interstellar medium there are some highly fractionated oxygen isotopic ratios in some specific molecules. The goal of this work is to investigate the oxygen isotopic ratios in different volatile molecules found in the coma of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko and compare them with findings from interstellar clouds in order to assess commonalities and differences. To accomplish this goal, we analysed data from the ROSINA instrument on Rosetta during its mission around the comet. 16O/18O ratios could be determined for O2, methanol, formaldehyde, carbonyl sulfide, and sulfur monoxide/dioxide. For O2 the 16O/17O ratio is also available. Some ratios are strongly enriched in the heavy isotopes, especially for sulfur-bearing molecules and formaldehyde, whereas for methanol the ratios are compatible with the ones in the Solar system. O2 falls in-between, but its oxygen isotopic ratios clearly differ from water, which likely rules out an origin of O2 from water, be it by radiolysis, dismutation during sublimation, or the Eley–Rideal process from water ions hitting the nucleus as postulated in the literature.

Context. Gas-phase sodium, silicon, potassium, and calcium were previously identified in mass spectra recorded in the coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, the target of the European Space Agency’s Rosetta mission. The major release process for these atoms was identified as sputtering by the solar wind. More recently, remote observations of numerous comets over a range in heliocentric distances revealed the presence of metal atoms of iron and nickel that had been released either from the nucleus or from a distributed source with a short scale length. Sputtering, however, has been dismissed as a major release process due to the attenuation of the solar wind in the comae of some of the observed targets. Aims. We investigated the presence of refractory species in the gas phase of the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. This investigation includes a period close to perihelion when the solar wind was likely absent from the near-nucleus region due to the increased cometary activity. Additionally, we extended our search to iron and nickel. Methods. We analyzed in situ data from the Rosetta/ROSINA Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer DFMS. Results. We found that gas-phase silicon was present throughout the Rosetta mission. Furthermore, the presence of sodium and iron atoms near the comet’s perihelion confirms that sputtering cannot be the sole release process for refractory elements into the gas phase. Nickel was found to be below the detection limit. The search for parent species of any of the identified gas phase refractories has not been successful. Upper limits for a suite of possible fragment species (SiH, SiC, NaH, etc.) of larger parent and daughter species have been obtained. Furthermore, Si did not exhibit the same drop in signal as do common cometary gases when the spacecraft is pointed away from the nucleus. The combined results suggest that a direct release of elemental species from small grains on the surface of the nucleus or from small grains in the surrounding coma is a more likely explanation than the previous assumption of release via the dissociation of gaseous parent molecules.