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We determined the effect of sample size on performance of polygenic hazard score (PHS) models in prostate cancer. Age and genotypes were obtained for 40,861 men from the PRACTICAL consortium. The dataset included 201,590 SNPs per subject, and was split into training and testing sets. Established-SNP models considered 65 SNPs that had been previously associated with prostate cancer. Discovery-SNP models used stepwise selection to identify new SNPs. The performance of each PHS model was calculated for random sizes of the training set. The performance of a representative Established-SNP model was estimated for random sizes of the testing set. Mean HR98/50 (hazard ratio of top 2% to average in test set) of the Established-SNP model increased from 1.73 [95% CI: 1.69-1.77] to 2.41 [2.40-2.43] when the number of training samples was increased from 1 thousand to 30 thousand. Corresponding HR98/50 of the Discovery-SNP model increased from 1.05 [0.93-1.18] to 2.19 [2.16-2.23]. HR98/50 of a representative Established-SNP model using testing set sample sizes of 0.6 thousand and 6 thousand observations were 1.78 [1.70-1.85] and 1.73 [1.71-1.76], respectively. We estimate that a study population of 20 thousand men is required to develop Discovery-SNP PHS models while 10 thousand men should be sufficient for Established-SNP models.

BackgroundA polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening.MethodsUnited Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups.ResultsThe expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age.ConclusionsPHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS.ImpactPersonalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and fine-mapping efforts to date have identified more than 100 prostate cancer (PrCa)-susceptibility loci. We meta-analyzed genotype data from a custom high-density array of 46,939 PrCa cases and 27,910 controls of European ancestry with previously genotyped data of 32,255 PrCa cases and 33,202 controls of European ancestry. Our analysis identified 62 novel loci associated (P C, p.Pro1054Arg) in ATM and rs2066827 (OR = 1.06; P = 2.3 × 10-9; T>G, p.Val109Gly) in CDKN1B. The combination of all loci captured 28.4% of the PrCa familial relative risk, and a polygenic risk score conferred an elevated PrCa risk for men in the ninetieth to ninety-ninth percentiles (relative risk = 2.69; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.55-2.82) and first percentile (relative risk = 5.71; 95% CI: 5.04-6.48) risk stratum compared with the population average. These findings improve risk prediction, enhance fine-mapping, and provide insight into the underlying biology of PrCa1.

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.DesignAnalysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.SettingMultiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.ParticipantsAll consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.Main outcome measuresPrediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.ResultsIn the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.ConclusionsPolygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

Prostate cancer is a polygenic disease with a large heritable component. A number of common, low-penetrance prostate cancer risk loci have been identified through GWAS. Here we apply the Bayesian multivariate variable selection algorithm JAM to fine-map 84 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, using summary data from a large European ancestry meta-analysis. We observe evidence for multiple independent signals at 12 regions and 99 risk signals overall. Only 15 original GWAS tag SNPs remain among the catalogue of candidate variants identified; the remainder are replaced by more likely candidates. Biological annotation of our credible set of variants indicates significant enrichment within promoter and enhancer elements, and transcription factor-binding sites, including AR, ERG and FOXA1. In 40 regions at least one variant is colocalised with an eQTL in prostate cancer tissue. The refined set of candidate variants substantially increase the proportion of familial relative risk explained by these known susceptibility regions, which highlights the importance of fine-mapping studies and has implications for clinical risk profiling.

Global changes in chromatin accessibility may drive cancer progression by reprogramming transcription factor (TF) binding. In addition, histone acetylation readers such as bromodomain-containing protein 4 (BRD4) have been shown to associate with these TFs and contribute to aggressive cancers including prostate cancer (PC). Here, we show that chromatin accessibility defines castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). We show that the deregulation of androgen receptor (AR) expression is a driver of chromatin relaxation and that AR/androgen-regulated bromodomain-containing proteins (BRDs) mediate this effect. We also report that BRDs are overexpressed in CRPCs and that ATAD2 and BRD2 have prognostic value. Finally, we developed gene stratification signature (BROMO-10) for bromodomain response and PC prognostication, to inform current and future trials with drugs targeting these processes. Our findings provide a compelling rational for combination therapy targeting bromodomains in selected patients in which BRD-mediated TF binding is enhanced or modified as cancer progresses.

Although genome-wide association studies have identified over 100 risk loci that explain ∼33% of familial risk for prostate cancer (PrCa), their functional effects on risk remain largely unknown. Here we use genotype data from 59,089 men of European and African American ancestries combined with cell-type-specific epigenetic data to build a genomic atlas of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability in PrCa. We find significant differences in heritability between variants in prostate-relevant epigenetic marks defined in normal versus tumour tissue as well as between tissue and cell lines. The majority of SNP heritability lies in regions marked by H3k27 acetylation in prostate adenoc7arcinoma cell line (LNCaP) or by DNaseI hypersensitive sites in cancer cell lines. We find a high degree of similarity between European and African American ancestries suggesting a similar genetic architecture from common variation underlying PrCa risk. Our findings showcase the power of integrating functional annotation with genetic data to understand the genetic basis of PrCa.

Purpose: To evaluate a random forest (RF) algorithm of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) as a predictor of all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort. Materials and Methods: A population-based cohort of 3143 men born in 1924, 1934, and 1944 was evaluated using a mailed questionnaire including the Danish Prostatic Symptom Score (DAN-PSS-1) to assess LUTS as well as questions on medical conditions and behavioral and sociodemographic factors. Surveys were repeated in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2015. The cohort was followed-up for vital status until the end of 2018. RF uses an ensemble of classification trees for prediction with a good flexibility and without overfitting. RF algorithms were developed to predict the five-year mortality using LUTS, demographic, medical, and behavioral factors alone and in combinations. Results: A total of 2663 men were included in the study, of whom 917 (34%) died during follow-up (median follow-up time 15.0 years). The LUTS-based RF algorithm showed an area under the curve (AUC) 0.60 (95% CI 0.52– 0.69) for five-year mortality. An expanded RF algorithm, including LUTS, medical history, and behavioral and sociodemographic factors, yielded an AUC 0.73 (0.65– 0.81), while an algorithm excluding LUTS yielded an AUC 0.71 (0.62– 0.78). Conclusion: An exploratory RF algorithm using LUTS can predict all-cause mortality with acceptable discrimination at the group level. In clinical practice, it is unlikely that LUTS will improve the accuracy to predict death if the patient's background is well known. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Genetic variants are likely to contribute to a portion of prostate cancer risk. Full elucidation of the genetic etiology of prostate cancer is difficult because of incomplete penetrance and genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity. Current evidence suggests that genetic linkage to prostate cancer has been found on several chromosomes including the X; however, identification of causative genes has been elusive. Methods Parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses were performed using 26 microsatellite markers in each of 11 groups of multiple-case prostate cancer families from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG). Meta-analyses of the resultant family-specific linkage statistics across the entire 1,323 families and in several predefined subsets were then performed. Results Meta-analyses of linkage statistics resulted in a maximum parametric heterogeneity lod score (HLOD) of 1.28, and an allele-sharing lod score (LOD) of 2.0 in favor of linkage to Xq27-q28 at 138 cM. In subset analyses, families with average age at onset less than 65 years exhibited a maximum HLOD of 1.8 (at 138 cM) versus a maximum regional HLOD of only 0.32 in families with average age at onset of 65 years or older. Surprisingly, the subset of families with only 2–3 affected men and some evidence of male-to-male transmission of prostate cancer gave the strongest evidence of linkage to the region (HLOD = 3.24, 134 cM). For this subset, the HLOD was slightly increased (HLOD = 3.47 at 134 cM) when families used in the original published report of linkage to Xq27-28 were excluded. Conclusions Although there was not strong support for linkage to the Xq27-28 region in the complete set of families, the subset of families with earlier age at onset exhibited more evidence of linkage than families with later onset of disease. A subset of families with 2–3 affected individuals and with some evidence of male to male disease transmission showed stronger linkage signals. Our results suggest that the genetic basis for prostate cancer in our families is much more complex than a single susceptibility locus on the X chromosome, and that future explorations of the Xq27-28 region should focus on the subset of families identified here with the strongest evidence of linkage to this region.

Abstract Background Gleason scoring has experienced several modifications during the past decade. So far, only one study has compared the prognostic abilities of worst (WGS) and overall (OGS) modified Gleason scores after the ISUP 2005 conference. Prostatic needle biopsies are individually paraffin-embedded in 57% of European pathology laboratories, whereas the rest of laboratories embed multiple (2 - 6) biopsies per one paraffin-block. Differences in the processing method can have a far-reaching effect, because reporting of the Gleason score (GS) is different for individually embedded and pooled biopsies, and GS is one of the most important factors when selecting treatment for patients. Methods The study material consisted of needle biopsies from 236 prostate cancer patients that were endocrine-treated in 1999-2003. Biopsies from left side and right side were embedded separately. Haematoxylin-eosin-stained slides were scanned and analyzed on web-based virtual microscopy. Worst and overall Gleason scores were assessed according to the modified Gleason score schema after analyzing each biopsy separately. The compound Gleason scores (CGS) were obtained from the original pathology reports. Two different grade groupings were used: GS 6 or less vs. 7 vs. 8 or above; and GS 7(3 + 4) or less vs. 7(4 + 3) and 8 vs. 9-10. The prognostic ability of the three scoring methods to predict biochemical progression was compared with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results The median follow-up time of the patients was 64.5 months (range 0-118). The modified GS criteria led to upgrading of the Gleason sums compared to the original CGS from the pathology reports 1999-2003 (mean 7.0 for CGS, 7.5 for OGS, 7.6 for WGS). In 43 cases WGS was > OGS. In a univariate analysis the relative risks were 2.1 (95%-confidence interval 1.8-2.4) for CGS, 2.5 (2.1-2.8) for OGS, and 2.6 (2.2-2.9) for WGS. In a multivariate analysis, OGS was the only independent prognostic factor. Conclusions All of the three Gleason scoring methods are strong predictors of biochemical recurrence. The use of modified Gleason scoring leads to upgrading of GS, but also improves the prognostic value of the scoring. No significant prognostic differences between OGS and WGS could be shown, which may relate to the apparent narrowing of the GS scale from 2-10 to 5-10 due to the recent modifications.

Abstract Background Several predisposition loci for hereditary prostate cancer (HPC) have been suggested, including HPCX1 at Xq27-q28, but due to the complex structure of the region, the susceptibility gene has not yet been identified. Methods In this study, nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) inhibition was used for the discovery of truncating mutations. Six prostate cancer (PC) patients and their healthy brothers were selected from a group of HPCX1-linked families. Expression analyses were done using Agilent 44 K oligoarrays, and selected genes were screened for mutations by direct sequencing. In addition, microRNA expression levels in the lymphoblastic cells were analyzed to trace variants that might alter miRNA expression and explain partly an inherited genetic predisposion to PC. Results Seventeen genes were selected for resequencing based on the NMD array, but no truncating mutations were found. The most interesting variant was MAGEC1 p.Met1?. An association was seen between the variant and unselected PC (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.10-5.02) and HPC (OR = 3.38, 95% CI = 1.10-10.40). miRNA analysis revealed altogether 29 miRNAs with altered expression between the PC cases and controls. miRNA target analysis revealed that 12 of them also had possible target sites in the MAGEC1 gene. These miRNAs were selected for validation process including four miRNAs located in the X chromosome. The expressions of 14 miRNAs were validated in families that contributed to the significant signal differences in Agilent arrays. Conclusions Further functional studies are needed to fully understand the possible contribution of these miRNAs and MAGEC1 start codon variant to PC.

Germline variants in DNA repair genes are associated with aggressive prostate cancer (PrCa). The aim of this study was to characterize germline variants in DNA repair genes associated with lethal PrCa in Finnish and Swedish populations. Whole-exome sequencing was performed for 122 lethal and 60 unselected PrCa cases. Among the lethal cases, a total of 16 potentially damaging protein-truncating variants in DNA repair genes were identified in 15 men (12.3%). Mutations were found in six genes with CHEK2 (4.1%) and ATM (3.3%) being most frequently mutated. Overall, the carrier rate of truncating variants in DNA repair genes among men with lethal PrCa significantly exceeded the carrier rate of 0% in 60 unselected PrCa cases ( p = 0.030), and the prevalence of 1.6% ( p < 0.001) and 5.4% ( p = 0.040) in Swedish and Finnish population controls from the Exome Aggregation Consortium. No significant difference in carrier rate of potentially damaging nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants between lethal and unselected PrCa cases was observed ( p = 0.123). We confirm that DNA repair genes are strongly associated with lethal PrCa in Sweden and Finland and highlight the importance of population-specific assessment of variants contributing to PrCa aggressiveness.

Objectives: To identify the prognostic factors of prostate cancer death among patients enrolled in a Finnish prostate cancer screening trial., Methods: Data on TNM stage, Gleason score, serum prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, comorbidity and primary treatment were collected from medical records, as well as date and cause of death from Statistics Finland. Four prognostic risk groups were defined based on TNM stage, Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis. Hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for prostate cancer death were calculated using Cox regression and competing-risk analysis with follow up from randomization. The differences in the effects of prognostic factors were assessed using interaction terms., Results: The 15-year survival was significantly lower among cases in the control arm compared with the screening arm (0.90 vs 0.92). However, the survival advantage was limited to screen-detected cases (0.94 vs 0.91 in cases detected outside screening). The prognostic risk group was the strongest factor predicting survival in the control arm, but weaker in screen-detected cases. Advanced disease was associated with substantially poorer outcome in cases detected outside screening than in screen-detected disease. Primary treatment had a similar effect in all groups. Comorbidity had a small prognostic effect in the control arm only., Conclusions: Prognostic factors had a different effect on the outcome of cases detected through screening as those diagnosed otherwise. A high diagnostic prostate-specific antigen and advanced disease carried a poor prognosis, especially among the cases detected outside screening, even when lead-time was eliminated. This shows that the screening resulted in earlier treatment among the cases in the screening arm., (© 2017 The Japanese Urological Association.)