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Social skills training targets behaviors necessary for success in social interactions. However, traditional classroom training for such skills is often insufficient to teach effective communication -- one-to-one interaction in real-world scenarios is preferred to lecture-style information delivery. This paper introduces a framework that allows instructors to collaborate with large language models to dynamically design realistic scenarios for students to communicate. Our framework uses these scenarios to enable student rehearsal, provide immediate feedback, and visualize performance for both students and instructors. Unlike traditional intelligent tutoring systems, instructors can easily co-create scenarios with a large language model without technical skills. Additionally, the system generates new scenario branches in real time when existing options do not fit the student's response.

Cosmological information is encoded in the structure of galaxy clusters. In Universes with less matter and larger initial density perturbations, clusters form earlier and have more time to accrete material, leading to a more extended infall region. Thus, measuring the mean mass distribution in the infall region provides a novel cosmological test. The infall region is largely insensitive to baryonic physics, and provides a cleaner structural test than other measures of cluster assembly time such as concentration. We consider cluster samples from three publicly available galaxy cluster catalogues: the Spectrsopic Identification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS) catalogue, the X-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect selected clusters in the meta-catalogue M2C, and clusters identified in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Survey. Using a preliminary shape catalogue from the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS), we derive excess surface mass density profiles for each sample. We then compare the mean profile for the DESI Legacy sample, which is the most complete, to predictions from a suite of simulations covering a range of $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_8$, obtaining constraints of $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.29\pm 0.05$ and $\sigma_8=0.80 \pm 0.04$. We also measure mean (comoving) splashback radii for SPIDERS, M2C and DESI Legacy Imaging Survey clusters of $1.59^{+0.16}_{-0.13} {\rm cMpc}/h$, $1.30^{+0.25}_{-0.13} {\rm cMpc}/h$ and $1.45\pm0.11 {\rm cMpc}/h$ respectively. Performing this analysis with the final UNIONS shape catalogue and the full sample of spectroscopically observed clusters in DESI, we can expect to improve on the best current constraints from cluster abundance studies by a factor of 2 or more., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

Microswimmers are sub-millimeter swimming microrobots that show potential as a platform for controllable locomotion in applications including targeted cargo delivery and minimally invasive surgery. To be viable for these target applications, microswimmers will eventually need to be able to navigate in environments with dynamic fluid flows and forces. Experimental studies with microswimmers towards this goal are currently rare because of the difficulty isolating intentional microswimmer motion from environment-induced motion. In this work, we present a method for measuring microswimmer locomotion within a complex flow environment using fiducial microspheres. By tracking the particle motion of ferromagnetic and non-magnetic polystyrene fiducial microspheres, we capture the effect of fluid flow and field gradients on microswimmer trajectories. We then determine the field-driven translation of these microswimmers relative to fluid flow and demonstrate the effectiveness of this method by illustrating the motion of multiple microswimmers through different flows., Comment: 6 pages, 8 figures, preprint of ICRA conference submission

Accurate short-term streamflow and flood forecasting are critical for mitigating river flood impacts, especially given the increasing climate variability. Machine learning-based streamflow forecasting relies on large streamflow datasets derived from rating curves. Uncertainties in rating curve modeling could introduce errors to the streamflow data and affect the forecasting accuracy. This study proposes a streamflow forecasting method that addresses these data errors, enhancing the accuracy of river flood forecasting and flood modeling, thereby reducing flood-related risk. A convolutional recurrent neural network is used to capture spatiotemporal patterns, coupled with residual error learning and forecasting. The neural network outperforms commonly used forecasting models over 1-6 hours of forecasting horizons, and the residual error learners can further correct the residual errors. This provides a more reliable tool for river flood forecasting and climate adaptation in this critical 1-6 hour time window for flood risk mitigation efforts.

As robots become more common for both able-bodied individuals and those living with a disability, it is increasingly important that lay people be able to drive multi-degree-of-freedom platforms with low-dimensional controllers. One approach is to use state-conditioned action mapping methods to learn mappings between low-dimensional controllers and high DOF manipulators -- prior research suggests these mappings can simplify the teleoperation experience for users. Recent works suggest that neural networks predicting a local linear function are superior to the typical end-to-end multi-layer perceptrons because they allow users to more easily undo actions, providing more control over the system. However, local linear models assume actions exist on a linear subspace and may not capture nuanced actions in training data. We observe that the benefit of these mappings is being an odd function concerning user actions, and propose end-to-end nonlinear action maps which achieve this property. Unfortunately, our experiments show that such modifications offer minimal advantages over previous solutions. We find that nonlinear odd functions behave linearly for most of the control space, suggesting architecture structure improvements are not the primary factor in data-driven teleoperation. Our results suggest other avenues, such as data augmentation techniques and analysis of human behavior, are necessary for action maps to become practical in real-world applications, such as in assistive robotics to improve the quality of life of people living with w disability., Comment: 13 Pages, 7 Figures, presented at Collaborative AI and Modeling of Humans AAAI Bridge Program Submission

In recent times, Reinforcement learning (RL) has been widely applied to many challenging tasks. However, in order to perform well, it requires access to a good reward function which is often sparse or manually engineered with scope for error. Introducing human prior knowledge is often seen as a possible solution to the above-mentioned problem, such as imitation learning, learning from preference, and inverse reinforcement learning. Learning from feedback is another framework that enables an RL agent to learn from binary evaluative signals describing the teacher's (positive or negative) evaluation of the agent's action. However, these methods often make the assumption that evaluative teacher feedback is perfect, which is a restrictive assumption. In practice, such feedback can be noisy due to limited teacher expertise or other exacerbating factors like cognitive load, availability, distraction, etc. In this work, we propose the CANDERE-COACH algorithm, which is capable of learning from noisy feedback by a nonoptimal teacher. We propose a noise-filtering mechanism to de-noise online feedback data, thereby enabling the RL agent to successfully learn with up to 40% of the teacher feedback being incorrect. Experiments on three common domains demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Traditionally, Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems are aimed at optimization of the behavior of an agent. This paper proposes a novel take on RL, which is used to learn the policy of another agent, to allow real-time recognition of that agent's goals. Goal Recognition (GR) has traditionally been framed as a planning problem where one must recognize an agent's objectives based on its observed actions. Recent approaches have shown how reinforcement learning can be used as part of the GR pipeline, but are limited to recognizing predefined goals and lack scalability in domains with a large goal space. This paper formulates a novel problem, "Online Dynamic Goal Recognition" (ODGR), as a first step to address these limitations. Contributions include introducing the concept of dynamic goals into the standard GR problem definition, revisiting common approaches by reformulating them using ODGR, and demonstrating the feasibility of solving ODGR in a navigation domain using transfer learning. These novel formulations open the door for future extensions of existing transfer learning-based GR methods, which will be robust to changing and expansive real-time environments., Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, RLC workshop, WAHT workshop

Optimizing warehouse layouts is crucial due to its significant impact on efficiency and productivity. We present an AI-driven framework for automated warehouse layout generation. This framework employs constrained beam search to derive optimal layouts within given spatial parameters, adhering to all functional requirements. The feasibility of the generated layouts is verified based on criteria such as item accessibility, required minimum clearances, and aisle connectivity. A scoring function is then used to evaluate the feasible layouts considering the number of storage locations, access points, and accessibility costs. We demonstrate our method's ability to produce feasible, optimal layouts for a variety of warehouse dimensions and shapes, diverse door placements, and interconnections. This approach, currently being prepared for deployment, will enable human designers to rapidly explore and confirm options, facilitating the selection of the most appropriate layout for their use-case.

Galaxy cluster abundance measurements provide a classic test of cosmology. They are most sensitive to the evolved amplitude of fluctuations, usually expressed as $S_8 = \sigma_8\sqrt{\Omega_m/0.3}$. Thus, abundance constraints exhibit a strong degeneracy between $\sigma_8$ and $\Omega_{\rm m}$, as do other similar low-redshift tests such as cosmic shear. The mass distribution in the infall region around galaxy clusters, where material is being accreted from the surrounding field, also exhibits a cosmological dependence, but in this case it is nearly orthogonal to the $S_8$ direction in the $\Omega_m$--$\sigma_8$ plane, making it highly complementary to halo abundance or cosmic shear studies. We explore how weak lensing measurements of the infall region might be used to complement abundance studies, considering three different tests. The splashback radius is a prominent feature of the infall region; we show that detection of this feature in lensing data from the Euclid survey could independently constrain $\Omega_{\rm m}$ and $\sigma_8$ to $\pm 0.05$. Another feature, the depletion radius where the bias reaches a minimum, also shows cosmological dependence, though it is challenging to observe in practice. The strongest constraints come from direct measurements of the shear profile in the infall region at $2$--$4\,r_{200{\rm c}}$. Combining the latter with abundance constraints such as those reported from SRG$/$eROSITA should reduce the area of the error contours by an estimated factor of $1.2$ using a sample of clusters observed by the UNIONS survey, or a factor of $3$ using clusters observed by the Euclid Wide survey over a broader range of redshift., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures

It is well known that there are persistent statistical tensions with the standard model in the low Q2 HERA deep inelastic scattering neutral current data characterized by a turn-over of F2(x, Q2) at low x and low Q2. One important experimental signature that sheds light on this low Q2 region is the determination of the longitudinal structure function FL(x, Q2). This paper describes a novel method to determine FL based on an extrapolation of the reduced NC cross section at fixed s and Q to the minimum value of x given by Q2/s. At this kinematic point, the reduced cross section equals 2xF1 = F2 - FL so that a determination of both this value and the value of F2, determines FL. Since the polarization of the exchanged photon is transverse at this kinematic point, we expect FL to be small because its dominate gluon component is strongly suppressed. Surprisingly, we find FL at low Q2 to be much larger than expectation and observe that both FL and F2 at x = Q2/s show several properties consistent with the dipole picture. We discuss the statistical as well as chief systematic errors of our method and we tabulate our determinations of F2, 2xF1 and FL in the Appendix., Comment: 42 pages, 13 figures

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}{\texttt{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}}.

Cosmological parameters such as $\Omega_{\rm{M}}$ and $\sigma_{8}$ can be measured indirectly using various methods, including galaxy cluster abundance and cosmic shear. These measurements constrain the composite parameter $S_{8}$, leading to degeneracy between $\Omega_{\rm{M}}$ and $\sigma_{8}$. However, some structural properties of galaxy clusters also correlate with cosmological parameters, due to their dependence on a cluster's accretion history. In this work, we focus on the splashback radius, an observable cluster feature that represents a boundary between a cluster and the surrounding Universe. Using a suite of cosmological simulations with a range of values for $\Omega_{\rm{M}}$ and $\sigma_{8}$, we show that the position of the splashback radius around cluster-mass halos is greater in cosmologies with smaller values of $\Omega_{\rm{M}}$ or larger values of $\sigma_{8}$. This variation breaks the degeneracy between $\Omega_{\rm{M}}$ and $\sigma_{8}$ that comes from measurements of the $S_{8}$ parameter. We also show that this variation is, in principle, measurable in observations. As the splashback radius can be determined from the same weak lensing analysis already used to estimate $S_{8}$, this new approach can tighten low-redshift constraints on cosmological parameters, either using existing data, or using upcoming data such as that from Euclid and LSST., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJ

Numerous metrics exist to quantify the dynamical state of galaxy clusters, both observationally and within simulations. Many of these correlate strongly with one another, but it is not clear whether all of these measures probe the same intrinsic properties. In this work, we use two different statistical approaches -- principal component analysis (PCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) -- to investigate which dynamical properties of a cluster are in fact the best descriptors of its dynamical state. We use measurements taken directly from The Three Hundred suite of galaxy cluster simulations, as well as morphological properties calculated using mock X-ray and SZ maps of the same simulated clusters. We find that four descriptions of dynamical state naturally arise, and although correlations exist between these, a given cluster can be "dynamically relaxed" according to all, none, or some of these four descriptions. These results demonstrate that it is highly important for future observational and theoretical studies to consider in which sense clusters are dynamically relaxed. Cluster dynamical states are complex and multi-dimensional, and so it is not meaningful to classify them simply as "relaxed" and "unrelaxed" based on a single linear scale., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

For autonomous agents to successfully integrate into human-centered environments, agents should be able to learn from and adapt to humans in their native settings. Preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) is a promising approach that learns reward functions from human preferences. This enables RL agents to adapt their behavior based on human desires. However, humans live in a world full of diverse information, most of which is not relevant to completing a particular task. It becomes essential that agents learn to focus on the subset of task-relevant environment features. Unfortunately, prior work has largely ignored this aspect; primarily focusing on improving PbRL algorithms in standard RL environments that are carefully constructed to contain only task-relevant features. This can result in algorithms that may not effectively transfer to a more noisy real-world setting. To that end, this work proposes R2N (Robust-to-Noise), the first PbRL algorithm that leverages principles of dynamic sparse training to learn robust reward models that can focus on task-relevant features. We study the effectiveness of R2N in the Extremely Noisy Environment setting, an RL problem setting where up to 95% of the state features are irrelevant distractions. In experiments with a simulated teacher, we demonstrate that R2N can adapt the sparse connectivity of its neural networks to focus on task-relevant features, enabling R2N to significantly outperform several state-of-the-art PbRL algorithms in multiple locomotion and control environments.

The current standard model of cosmology successfully describes a variety of measurements, but the nature of its main ingredients, dark matter and dark energy, remains unknown. Euclid is a medium-class mission in the Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 programme of the European Space Agency (ESA) that will provide high-resolution optical imaging, as well as near-infrared imaging and spectroscopy, over about 14,000 deg^2 of extragalactic sky. In addition to accurate weak lensing and clustering measurements that probe structure formation over half of the age of the Universe, its primary probes for cosmology, these exquisite data will enable a wide range of science. This paper provides a high-level overview of the mission, summarising the survey characteristics, the various data-processing steps, and data products. We also highlight the main science objectives and expected performance., Comment: Accepted for publication in the A&A special issue`Euclid on Sky'

To create useful reinforcement learning (RL) agents, step zero is to design a suitable reward function that captures the nuances of the task. However, reward engineering can be a difficult and time-consuming process. Instead, human-in-the-loop (HitL) RL allows agents to learn reward functions from human feedback. Despite recent successes, many of the HitL RL methods still require numerous human interactions to learn successful reward functions. To improve the feedback efficiency of HitL RL methods (i.e., require less feedback), this paper introduces Sub-optimal Data Pre-training, SDP, an approach that leverages reward-free, sub-optimal data to improve scalar- and preference-based HitL RL algorithms. In SDP, we start by pseudo-labeling all low-quality data with rewards of zero. Through this process, we obtain free reward labels to pre-train our reward model. This pre-training phase provides the reward model a head start in learning, whereby it can identify that low-quality transitions should have a low reward, all without any actual feedback. Through extensive experiments with a simulated teacher, we demonstrate that SDP can significantly improve or achieve competitive performance with state-of-the-art (SOTA) HitL RL algorithms across nine robotic manipulation and locomotion tasks.

Gaze-based interactions offer a potential way for users to naturally engage with mixed reality (XR) interfaces. Black-box machine learning models enabled higher accuracy for gaze-based interactions. However, due to the black-box nature of the model, users might not be able to understand and effectively adapt their gaze behaviour to achieve high quality interaction. We posit that explainable AI (XAI) techniques can facilitate understanding of and interaction with gaze-based model-driven system in XR. To study this, we built a real-time, multi-level XAI interface for gaze-based interaction using a deep learning model, and evaluated it during a visual search task in XR. A between-subjects study revealed that participants who interacted with XAI made more accurate selections compared to those who did not use the XAI system (i.e., F1 score increase of 10.8%). Additionally, participants who used the XAI system adapted their gaze behavior over time to make more effective selections. These findings suggest that XAI can potentially be used to assist users in more effective collaboration with model-driven interactions in XR.

This paper introduces the problem of learning to place logic blocks in Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and a learning-based method. In contrast to previous search-based placement algorithms, we instead employ Reinforcement Learning (RL) with the goal of minimizing wirelength. In addition to our preliminary learning results, we also evaluated a novel decomposition to address the nature of large search space when placing many blocks on a chipboard. Empirical experiments evaluate the effectiveness of the learning and decomposition paradigms on FPGA placement tasks., Comment: accepted by ISEDA2024

In reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to perform a task by interacting with an environment and receiving feedback (a numerical reward) for its actions. However, the assumption that rewards are always observable is often not applicable in real-world problems. For example, the agent may need to ask a human to supervise its actions or activate a monitoring system to receive feedback. There may even be a period of time before rewards become observable, or a period of time after which rewards are no longer given. In other words, there are cases where the environment generates rewards in response to the agent's actions but the agent cannot observe them. In this paper, we formalize a novel but general RL framework - Monitored MDPs - where the agent cannot always observe rewards. We discuss the theoretical and practical consequences of this setting, show challenges raised even in toy environments, and propose algorithms to begin to tackle this novel setting. This paper introduces a powerful new formalism that encompasses both new and existing problems and lays the foundation for future research., Comment: AAMAS 2024, Main Track

One of the final frontiers in the development of complex human - AI collaborative systems is the ability of AI agents to comprehend the natural language and perform tasks accordingly. However, training efficient Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents grounded in natural language has been a long-standing challenge due to the complexity and ambiguity of the language and sparsity of the rewards, among other factors. Several advances in reinforcement learning, curriculum learning, continual learning, language models have independently contributed to effective training of grounded agents in various environments. Leveraging these developments, we present a novel algorithm, Grounded Language Instruction through DEmonstration in RL (GLIDE-RL) that introduces a teacher-instructor-student curriculum learning framework for training an RL agent capable of following natural language instructions that can generalize to previously unseen language instructions. In this multi-agent framework, the teacher and the student agents learn simultaneously based on the student's current skill level. We further demonstrate the necessity for training the student agent with not just one, but multiple teacher agents. Experiments on a complex sparse reward environment validates the effectiveness of our proposed approach., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, to be presented at AAMAS 2024

Fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) adapts a trained model to specific downstream tasks, significantly improving task-specific performance. Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is a common approach, where an LLM is trained to produce desired answers. However, LLMs trained with SFT sometimes make simple mistakes and result in hallucinations on reasoning tasks such as question-answering. Without external feedback, it is difficult for SFT to learn a good mapping between the question and the desired answer, especially with a small dataset. This paper introduces an alternative to SFT called Natural Language Feedback for Finetuning LLMs (LaFFi). LaFFi has LLMs directly predict the feedback they will receive from an annotator. We find that requiring such reflection can significantly improve the accuracy in in-domain question-answering tasks, providing a promising direction for the application of natural language feedback in the realm of SFT LLMs. Additional ablation studies show that the portion of human-annotated data in the annotated datasets affects the fine-tuning performance., Comment: Paper accepted in Human-Centric Representation Learning workshop at AAAI 2024 (https://hcrl-workshop.github.io/2024/)

The visual world provides an abundance of information, but many input pixels received by agents often contain distracting stimuli. Autonomous agents need the ability to distinguish useful information from task-irrelevant perceptions, enabling them to generalize to unseen environments with new distractions. Existing works approach this problem using data augmentation or large auxiliary networks with additional loss functions. We introduce MaDi, a novel algorithm that learns to mask distractions by the reward signal only. In MaDi, the conventional actor-critic structure of deep reinforcement learning agents is complemented by a small third sibling, the Masker. This lightweight neural network generates a mask to determine what the actor and critic will receive, such that they can focus on learning the task. The masks are created dynamically, depending on the current input. We run experiments on the DeepMind Control Generalization Benchmark, the Distracting Control Suite, and a real UR5 Robotic Arm. Our algorithm improves the agent's focus with useful masks, while its efficient Masker network only adds 0.2% more parameters to the original structure, in contrast to previous work. MaDi consistently achieves generalization results better than or competitive to state-of-the-art methods., Comment: Accepted as full-paper (oral) at AAMAS 2024. Code is available at https://github.com/bramgrooten/mask-distractions and see our 40-second video at https://youtu.be/2oImF0h1k48

While there has been significant progress in curriculum learning and continuous learning for training agents to generalize across a wide variety of environments in the context of single-agent reinforcement learning, it is unclear if these algorithms would still be valid in a multi-agent setting. In a competitive setting, a learning agent can be trained by making it compete with a curriculum of increasingly skilled opponents. However, a general intelligent agent should also be able to learn to act around other agents and cooperate with them to achieve common goals. When cooperating with other agents, the learning agent must (a) learn how to perform the task (or subtask), and (b) increase the overall team reward. In this paper, we aim to answer the question of what kind of cooperative teammate, and a curriculum of teammates should a learning agent be trained with to achieve these two objectives. Our results on the game Overcooked show that a pre-trained teammate who is less skilled is the best teammate for overall team reward but the worst for the learning of the agent. Moreover, somewhat surprisingly, a curriculum of teammates with decreasing skill levels performs better than other types of curricula., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures. Presented at Agent Learning in Open-Endedness Workshop at Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023)

Full automation is often not achievable or desirable in critical systems with high-stakes decisions. Instead, human-AI teams can achieve better results. To research, develop, evaluate, and validate algorithms suited for such teaming, lightweight experimentation platforms that enable interactions between humans and multiple AI agents are necessary. However, there are limited examples of such platforms for defense environments. To address this gap, we present the Cogment human-machine teaming experimentation platform, which implements human-machine teaming (HMT) use cases that features heterogeneous multi-agent systems and can involve learning AI agents, static AI agents, and humans. It is built on the Cogment platform and has been used for academic research, including work presented at the ALA workshop at AAMAS this year [1]. With this platform, we hope to facilitate further research on human-machine teaming in critical systems and defense environments., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures Presented at Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Defense (CAID) 2023

Dark matter haloes grow at a rate that depends on the value of the cosmological parameters $\sigma_8$ and $\Omega_{\rm m}$ through the initial power spectrum and the linear growth factor. While halo abundance is routinely used to constrain these parameters, through cluster abundance studies, the halo growth rate is not. In recent work, we proposed constraining the cosmological parameters using observational estimates of the overall dynamical "age" of clusters, expressed, for instance, by their half-mass assembly redshift $z_{50}$. Here we explore the prospects for using the instantaneous growth rate, as estimated from the halo merger rate, from the average growth rate over the last dynamical time, or from the fraction of systems with recent episodes of major growth. We show that the merger rate is mainly sensitive to the amplitude of fluctuations $\sigma_8$, while the rates of recent growth provide constraints in the $\Omega_{\rm m}$-$\sigma_8$ plane that are almost orthogonal to those provided by abundance studies. Data collected for forthcoming cluster abundance studies, or studies of the galaxy merger rate in current and future galaxy surveys, may thus provide additional constraints on the cosmological parameters complementary to those already derived from halo abundance., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 1 table and two figures in appendix

The massive proliferation of social media data represents a transformative opportunity for conflict studies and for tracking the proliferation and use of weaponry, as conflicts are increasingly documented in these online spaces. At the same time, the scale and types of data available are problematic for traditional open-source intelligence. This paper focuses on identifying specific weapon systems and the insignias of the armed groups using them as documented in the Ukraine war, as these tasks are critical to operational intelligence and tracking weapon proliferation, especially given the scale of international military aid given to Ukraine. The large scale of social media makes manual assessment difficult, however, so this paper presents early work that uses computer vision models to support this task. We demonstrate that these models can both identify weapons embedded in images shared in social media and how the resulting collection of military-relevant images and their post times interact with the offline, real-world conflict. Not only can we then track changes in the prevalence of images of tanks, land mines, military trucks, etc., we find correlations among time series data associated with these images and the daily fatalities in this conflict. This work shows substantial opportunity for examining similar online documentation of conflict contexts, and we also point to future avenues where computer vision can be further improved for these open-source intelligence tasks.

Dwarf galaxies are important tracers of small-scale cosmological structure, yet much of our knowledge about these systems comes from the limited sample of dwarf galaxies within the Local Group. To make a comprehensive inventory of dwarf populations in the local Universe, we require effective methods for deriving distance estimates for large numbers of faint, low surface brightness objects. Here we test the surface brightness fluctuation (SBF) method, traditionally applied to brighter early-type galaxies, on a sample of 20 nearby dwarf galaxies detected in the COSMOS field. These objects are partially resolved in HST ACS images, and have confirmed redshift distances in the range 17-130 Mpc. We discuss the many model choices required in applying the SBF method, and explore how these affect the final distance estimates. Amongst other variations on the method, when applying the SBF method, we alter the standard equation to include a term accounting for the power spectrum of the background, greatly improving our results. For the most robust modelling choices, we find a roughly Gaussian SBF signal that correlates linearly with distance out to distances of 50-100 Mpc, but with only a fraction of the power expected. At larger distances, there is excess power relative to that predicted, probably from undetected point sources. Overall, obtaining accurate SBF distances to faint, irregular galaxies remains challenging, but may yet prove possible with the inclusion of more information about galaxy properties and point source populations, and the use of more advanced techniques., Comment: 18 pages, 26 figures, accepted by MNRAS

Many modern datasets, such as those in ecology and geology, are composed of samples with spatial structure and dependence. With such data violating the usual independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption in machine learning and classical statistics, it is unclear a priori how one should measure the performance and generalization of models. Several authors have empirically investigated cross-validation (CV) methods in this setting, reaching mixed conclusions. We provide a class of unbiased estimation methods for general quadratic errors, correlated Gaussian response, and arbitrary prediction function $g$, for a noise-elevated version of the error. Our approach generalizes the coupled bootstrap (CB) from the normal means problem to general normal data, allowing correlation both within and between the training and test sets. CB relies on creating bootstrap samples that are intelligently decoupled, in the sense of being statistically independent. Specifically, the key to CB lies in generating two independent "views" of our data and using them as stand-ins for the usual independent training and test samples. Beginning with Mallows' $C_p$, we generalize the estimator to develop our generalized $C_p$ estimators (GC). We show at under only a moment condition on $g$, this noise-elevated error estimate converges smoothly to the noiseless error estimate. We show that when Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) applies, GC converges to SURE as in the normal means problem. Further, we use these same tools to analyze CV and provide some theoretical analysis to help understand when CV will provide good estimates of error. Simulations align with our theoretical results, demonstrating the effectiveness of GC and illustrating the behavior of CV methods. Lastly, we apply our estimator to a model selection task on geothermal data in Nevada., Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures