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Although Bayesian Networks (BNs) are increasingly being used to solve real-world risk problems, their use is still constrained by the difficulty of constructing the node probability tables (NPTs). A key challenge is to construct relevant NPTs using the minimal amount of expert elicitation, recognizing that it is rarely cost effective to elicit complete sets of probability values. We describe a simple approach to defining NPTs for a large class of commonly occurring nodes (called ranked nodes). The approach is based on the doubly truncated Normal distribution with a central tendency that is invariably a type of weighted function of the parent nodes. In extensive real-world case studies, we have found that this approach is sufficient for generating the NPTs of a very large class of nodes. We describe one such case study for validation purposes. The approach has been fully automated in a commercial tool, called AgenaRisk, and is thus accessible to all types of domain experts. We believe that this work represents a useful contribution to the BN research and technology, since its application makes the difference between being able to build realistic BN models and not. Index Terms--Bayesian networks, node probability tables, ranked nodes, probability elicitation, risk analysis.

Research protocols must have a reasonable balance of risks and anticipated benefits to be ethically and legally acceptable. This article explores three characteristics of research on reproductive genetic technologies that complicate the assessment of the risk-benefit ratio for such research. First, a number of different people may be affected by a research protocol, raising the question of who should be considered to be the subject of reproductive genetic research. Second, such research could involve a wide range of possible harms and benefits, making the evaluation and comparison of those harms and benefits a challenging task. Finally, the risk-benefit ratio for this type of research is difficult to estimate because such research can have unpredictable, long-term implications. The article aims to facilitate the assessment of risk-benefit ratios in research on reproductive genetic technologies by proposing and defending some guidelines for dealing with each of these complicating factors. Keywords: benefits, genetic technology, reproductive technology, research, risks

The literature on network effects has popularized a hypothesis that competition between incompatible technologies results in the 'winner-take-all' outcome. For the survival of the firm in this sort of competition, the installed base has been emphasized. We argue that the validity of this hypothesis depends on how customers interact with one another (e.g., if they exchange advice or files). In some interaction networks, customers influenced by their acquaintances may adopt a lagging technology even when a lead technology has built a large installed base. The presence of such a local bias facilitates the persistence of incompatibilities. When local bias cannot be sustained in other interaction networks, one technology corners the market. Our study suggests that overemphasizing the installed base, while ignoring network structure, could mislead practitioners. Key words: network externalities; network; increasing returns; technology; complexity, 1. Introduction The literature on network effects has had considerable impact on managerial practices recently (Farrell and Klemperer 2001). It has indicated that, in a market that demonstrates network effects, [...]

Trade unions have a rational incentive to oppose the adoption of labour-saving technology when labour demand is inelastic and unions care much for employment relative to wages. Trade liberalisation typically increases trade union technology opposition. These conclusions are reached in a model of unionised international duopoly with two-way trade. We also find that the incentive for technology opposition is stronger in the more technologically advanced country and in the country with the larger home market, complementing earlier explanations for technological catch-up and leapfrogging. Keywords: Trade liberalisation; Technology adoption; International unionised oligopoly JEL classification: F12; F16; 033; J51; L13

The paper studies the existing conditions that would lead to United Kingdom (UK) government's aim to achieve 20% electricity through renewable sources of energy viz. wind energy, wave and tidal energy. Various improvements taking place in United Kingdom's (UK) renewable energy sectors and the hurdles that can restrain them from achieving the 20% electricity target have been mentioned.

ABSTRACT In this paper, we review alternative strategies for evaluating the commercial potential of new technologies. We examine the role of expert panels and illustrate the robustness of this approach [...]

In an attempt to reap the purported benefits that 'knowledge workers' bring to organizations, many police departments have shifted to a community problem-oriented policing philosophy. Rather than focusing on enforcement and incarceration, this philosophy is based on the dissemination of information to promote a proactive, preventative approach to reduce crime and disorder. In keeping with much of the contemporary literature on the 'learning organization' (sometimes called the 'knowledge organization'), police departments hope to deter crime through the knowledge benefits that derive from information and its associated technologies. With goals to stimulate productivity, performance, and effectiveness, police departments across the country are employing information technology to turn police officers into problem solvers and to leverage their intellectual capital to preempt crime and neighborhood deterioration. Many public and private organizations are striving to change their operations toward this same concept of the knowledge worker. Information technology is often touted as a vehicle for capturing, tracking, sorting, and providing information to advance knowledge, thus leading to improvements in service-delivery efforts. Based on an extensive study of police departments that have attempted to implement a knowledge-worker paradigm (supported by information technology initiatives), this research explores the feasibility, effectiveness, and limitations of information and technology in promoting the learning organization in the public sector.

The effect of foreign direct investment in the form of technology transfer is analyzed using data on 29 manufacturing industries over the period 1993-1998 in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone of China. It is found that some domestic sectors benefit more than others from the external effects of foreign direct investment.

The author expresses his view about the relative merits of ancient civilization and the consequences of modern science and technology, denying the old religious and political forms.

Executive Summary This research paper is based on a content analysis of public speeches and writings of 32 college presidents representing all institutional types. The data analysis yielded five themes […]

This article examines the creation of new spaces for colonization in new economy policy discourses drawing on over 1 million words from international legislation to reveal the role of policy language in creating the foundation of political economy. The author uses critical discourse analysis, critical media and classical political economy studies, to show how human activity can be commodified through manipulation of realis and irrealis spaces; also revealed is how the property element of new political economy is ignored despite moves to create a concrete and privately owned global space in the elcetromagnetic spectrum, which has ramifications for social relations an global knowledge economy.

This paper proposes evaluation criteria for embedded intelligent real-time systems to determine their effectiveness in aiding decision-making. Based upon results of the study, the authors recommend that evaluation criteria take into consideration both technology and human dimensions, including how decisions are made with and without the assistance of the technology. These embedded intelligent systems are increasingly in use, making this type of evaluation more critical.

Liquid crystals are interesting both for fundamental reasons and because of their application in display device technology. I give an overview of the liquid crystal phases. I then describe in more detail some of the basic physics of nematic liquid crystals, concentrating on those pieces of physics which underly display device technology. Finally I give a brief description of some of the most important liquid crystal applications.

Technology investment models usually assume that a known number of technologies will appear in the future, though their appearance, cost, and revenue parameters may be uncertain. In practice, however, it is not always clear how many future technologies or periods need to be considered. We introduce the concept of a technology horizon, which we define as the minimum number of future technologies and future periods that need to be considered to guarantee that the optimal decision would not change even if additional technologies or periods worth of data were to be considered. We also allow the costs and revenue of existing technologies in our model to vary depending on the latest technology introduced. Further, we allow for implementation costs, which enables us to model situations where it may cost more to leapfrog technologies than if one were to buy intervening technologies. We then provide a fast algorithm to identify such technology horizons. Index Terms - Forecast horizons, investment decisions, models, technological change.

United Germany boasts of a relatively stable technology market despite the merger of two different economic and political systems. Germany's technological strength lies in areas of mechanical engineering, automobile design and manufacturing, and aerospace development. However, it has lagged behind in areas such as data processing and electronics. United Germany is nevertheless, bestowed with an efficient research and development sector. While it is behind Japan and other countries in the global technology markets, it leads them in fields such as environmental technology.

A study compares two competing models in terms of how well they can predict an individual's acceptance of a laser printer. Business enterprises that introduce new technologies should concentrate on the benefits sought by purchasers. People who readily adopt the technology want benefits that will satisfy their needs better than existing technologies. If a technology offers significant benefits, these early adopters become less price sensitive and more willing to face risks just to get the benefits.

Technology-based enterprises must avoid the following traps: 1) overvaluing technology; 2) interchanging research and development; 3) underestimating the problems involved in manufacture; 4) failing to anticipate technological change; 5) positioning inappropriately; 6) ignoring the power of marketing; 7) not respecting investor expectations; and 8) misunderstanding innovation. At a more fundamental level, however, lies the threat that these mistakes transcend technical or marketing deficiencies and are symptoms of a more serious infrastructural problem. The more dangerous trap, therefore, is failing to recognize this in time.