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We analyze the interaction between an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) detected in situ at the L1 Lagrange point on 2016 October 12 with a trailing High-Speed Stream (HSS). We aim to estimate the region in the interplanetary (IP) space where the interaction happened/started using a combined observational-modeling approach. We use Minimum Variance Analysis and the Walen test to analyze possible reconnection exhaust at the interface of ICME and HSS. We perform a Graduated Cylindrical Shell reconstruction of the CME to estimate the geometry and source location of the CME. Finally, we use a two-step Drag Based Model (DBM) model to estimate the region in IP space where the interaction took place. The magnetic obstacle (MO) observed in situ shows a fairly symmetric and undisturbed structure and shows the magnetic flux, helicity, and expansion profile/speed of a typical ICME. The MVA together with the Walen test, however, confirms reconnection exhaust at the ICME HSS boundary. Thus, in situ signatures are in favor of a scenario where the interaction is fairly recent. The trailing HSS shows a distinct velocity profile which first reaches a semi-saturated plateau with an average velocity of 500 km/s and then saturates at a maximum speed of 710 km/s . We find that the HSS interaction with the ICME is influenced only by this initial plateau. The results of the two-step DBM suggest that the ICME has started interacting with the HSS close to Earth (approx 0.81 au), which compares well with the deductions from in situ signatures., Comment: 14 pages, 8 Figures, Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). The central FR axis can be oriented at any angle to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind which are neither homogeneous nor isotropic. Consequently, CMEs with different orientations will encounter different ambient medium conditions and, thus, the interaction of a CME with its surrounding environment will vary depending on the orientation of its FR axis, among other factors. This study aims to understand the effect of inclination on CME propagation. We performed simulations with the EUHFORIA 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. This study focuses on two CMEs modelled as spheromaks with nearly identical properties, differing only by their inclination. We show the effects of CME orientation on sheath evolution, MHD drag, and non-radial flows by analyzing the model data from a swarm of 81 virtual spacecraft scattered across the inner heliospheric. We have found that the sheath duration increases with radial distance from the Sun and that the rate of increase is greater on the flanks of the CME. Non-radial flows within the studied sheath region appear larger outside the ecliptic plane, indicating a "sliding" of the IMF in the out-of ecliptic plane. We found that the calculated drag parameter does not remain constant with radial distance and that the inclination dependence of the drag parameter can not be resolved with our numerical setup.

Coronal holes are recognized as the primary sources of heliospheric open magnetic flux (OMF). However, a noticeable gap exists between in-situ measured OMF and that derived from remote sensing observations of the Sun. In this study, we investigate the OMF evolution and its connection to solar structures throughout 2014, with special emphasis on the period from September to October, where a sudden and significant OMF increase was reported. By deriving the OMF evolution at 1au, modeling it at the source surface, and analyzing solar photospheric data, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the observed phenomenon. First, we establish a strong correlation between the OMF increase and the solar magnetic field derived from a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model ($cc_{\mathrm{Pearson}}=0.94$). Moreover, we find a good correlation between the OMF and the open flux derived from solar coronal holes ($cc_{\mathrm{Pearson}}=0.88$), although the coronal holes only contain $14-32\%$ of the Sun's total open flux. However, we note that while the OMF evolution correlates with coronal hole open flux, there is no correlation with the coronal hole area evolution ($cc_{\mathrm{Pearson}}=0.0$). The temporal increase in OMF correlates with the vanishing remnant magnetic field at the southern pole, caused by poleward flux circulations from the decay of numerous active regions months earlier. Additionally, our analysis suggests a potential link between the OMF enhancement and the concurrent emergence of the largest active region in solar cycle 24. In conclusion, our study provides insights into the strong increase in OMF observed during September to October 2014., Comment: accepted in ApJ

The cause of excess spectral line broadening (non-thermal velocity) is not definitively known, but given its rise before and during flaring, the causal processes hold clues to understanding the triggers for the onset of reconnection and the release of free magnetic energy from the coronal magnetic field. A comparison of data during a 9-hour period from the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft - at a 3-minute cadence - and non-linear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolations performed on Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms - at a 12-minute cadence - shows an inverse relationship between non-thermal velocity and free magnetic energy on short timescales during two X-class solar flares on 6 September 2017. Analysis of these results supports suggestions that unresolved Doppler flows do not solely cause non-thermal broadening and instead other mechanisms like Alfv\'en wave propagation and isotropic turbulence have a greater influence., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL

A plethora of coronal models, from empirical to more complex magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ones, are being used for reconstructing the coronal magnetic field topology and estimating the open magnetic flux. However, no individual solution fully agrees with coronal hole observations and in situ measurements of open flux at 1~AU, as there is a strong deficit between model and observations contributing to the known problem of the missing open flux. In this paper we investigate the possible origin of the discrepancy between modeled and observed magnetic field topology by assessing the effect on the simulation output by the choice of the input boundary conditions and the simulation set up, including the choice of numerical schemes and the parameter initialization. In the frame of this work, we considered four potential field source surface based models and one fully MHD model, different types of global magnetic field maps and model initiation parameters. After assessing the model outputs using a variety of metrics, we conclude that they are highly comparable regardless of the differences set at initiation. When comparing all models to coronal hole boundaries extracted by extreme ultraviolet (EUV) filtergrams we find that they do not compare well. This miss-match between observed and modeled regions of open field is a candidate contributing to the open flux problem.

We investigate the relation between the spatiotemporal evolution of the dimming region and the dominant direction of the filament eruption and CME propagation for the 28 October 2021 X1.0 flare/CME event observed from multiple viewpoints by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, SDO, and SOHO. We propose a method to estimate the dominant dimming direction by tracking its area evolution and emphasize its accurate estimation by calculating the surface area of a sphere for each pixel. To determine the early flux rope propagation direction, we perform 3D reconstruction of the CME via graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) and tie-pointing of the filament. The dimming initially expands radially and later shifts southeast. The orthogonal projections of the reconstructed height evolution of the erupting filament onto the solar surface are located in the sector of the dominant dimming growth, while the orthogonal projections of the inner part of GCS reconstruction align with the total dimming area. The filament reaches a maximum speed of $\approx$250 km/s at a height of about $\approx$180 Mm. The direction of its motion is strongly inclined from the radial (64$^\circ$ to the East, 32$^\circ$ to the South). The 50$^\circ$ difference in the 3D direction between the CME and the filament leg closely corresponds to the CME half-width determined from reconstruction, suggesting a potential relation of the reconstructed filament to the associated leg of the CME body. Our findings highlight that the dominant propagation of the dimming growth reflects the direction of the erupting magnetic structure (filament) low in the solar atmosphere, though the filament evolution is not related directly to the direction of the global CME expansion. The overall dimming morphology closely resembles the inner part of the CME reconstruction, validating the use of dimming observations to obtain insight into the CME direction., Comment: 15 pages, 18 figures, accepted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

Understanding the nature of energetic particles in the solar atmosphere is one of the most important outstanding problems in heliophysics. Flare-accelerated particles compose a huge fraction of the flare energy budget; they have large influences on how events develop; they are an important source of high-energy particles found in the heliosphere; and they are the single most important corollary to other areas of high-energy astrophysics. Despite the importance of this area of study, this topic has in the past decade received only a small fraction of the resources necessary for a full investigation. For example, NASA has selected no new Explorer-class instrument in the past two decades that is capable of examining this topic. The advances that are currently being made in understanding flare-accelerated electrons are largely undertaken with data from EOVSA (NSF), STIX (ESA), and NuSTAR (NASA Astrophysics). This is despite the inclusion in the previous Heliophysics decadal survey of the FOXSI concept as part of the SEE2020 mission, and also despite NASA's having invested heavily in readying the technology for such an instrument via four flights of the FOXSI sounding rocket experiment. Due to that investment, the instrumentation stands ready to implement a hard X-ray mission to investigate flare-accelerated electrons. This white paper describes the scientific motivation for why this venture should be undertaken soon., Comment: White paper submitted to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024-2033; 15 pages, 5 figures

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $\Delta\theta$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $\Delta\phi$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $\Delta\gamma$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $\Delta\alpha$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $\Delta h$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $\Delta\kappa$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

The important role played by magnetic reconnection in the early acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has been widely discussed. However, as CMEs may have expansion speeds comparable to their propagation speeds in the corona, it is not clear whether and how reconnection contributes to the true acceleration and expansion separately. To address this question, we analyze the dynamics of a moderately fast CME on 2013 February 27, associated with a continuous acceleration of its front into the high corona, even though its speed had reached $\sim$700~km~s$^{-1}$ and larger than the solar wind speed. The apparent CME acceleration is found to be due to the CME expansion in the radial direction. The CME true acceleration, i.e., the acceleration of its center, is then estimated by taking into account the expected deceleration caused by the solar wind drag force acting on a fast CME. It is found that the true acceleration and the radial expansion have similar magnitudes. We find that magnetic reconnection occurs after the CME eruption and continues during the CME propagation in the high corona, which contributes to the CME dynamic evolution. Comparison between the apparent acceleration related to the expansion and the true acceleration that compensates the drag shows that, for this case, magnetic reconnection contributes almost equally to the CME expansion and to the CME acceleration. The consequences of these measurements for the evolution of CMEs as they transit from the corona to the heliosphere are discussed., Comment: Accepted by ApJ

We derive a simple analytical model for the propagation of HSSs from the Sun to Earth and thereby show how the area of coronal holes and the size of their boundary regions affect the HSS velocity, temperature, and density near Earth. We presume that velocity, temperature, and density profiles form across the HSS cross section close to the Sun and that these spatial profiles translate into corresponding temporal profiles in a given radial direction due to the solar rotation. These temporal distributions drive the stream interface to the preceding slow solar wind plasma and disperse with distance from the Sun. The HSS properties at 1 AU are then given by all HSS plasma parcels launched from the Sun that did not run into the stream interface at Earth distance. We show that the velocity plateau region of HSSs as seen at 1 AU, if apparent, originates from the center region of the HSS close to the Sun, whereas the velocity tail at 1 AU originates from the trailing boundary region. The peak velocity of HSSs at Earth further depends on the longitudinal width of the HSS close to the Sun. The temperature and density of HSS plasma parcels at Earth depend on their radial expansion from the Sun to Earth. The radial expansion is determined by the velocity gradient across the HSS boundary region close to the Sun and gives the velocity-temperature and density-temperature relationships at Earth their specific shape. When considering a large number of HSSs, the presumed correlation between the HSS velocities and temperatures close to the Sun degrades only slightly up to 1 AU, but the correlation between the velocities and densities is strongly disrupted up to 1 AU due to the radial expansion. Finally, we show how the number of particles of the piled-up slow solar wind in the stream interaction region depends on the velocities and densities of the HSS and preceding slow solar wind plasma.

Aims: We statistically investigate the plasma and magnetic field characteristics of the upstream regions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their evolution as function of distance to the Sun in the inner heliosphere. We use a sample of 40 well-observed ICMEs from Helios 1/2 (0.3-1au) and 5 from Parker Solar Probe (0.32-0.75au). For each event we identify four main density structures, namely shock, sheath, leading edge (LE), and magnetic ejecta (ME) itself. Methods: We derive separately for each structure averaged plasma and magnetic field parameter values as well as duration and place the results into comparison with the upstream solar wind (SW) to investigate the interrelation between the different density structures. Results: The sheath structure presumably consists of compressed plasma due to the turbulent SW material following the shock. The sheath lies ahead of a region of compressed ambient SW, the LE, which is typically found directly in front of the magnetic driver and seems to match the bright leading edge commonly observed in remote sensing observations of CMEs. The sheath becomes denser than the ambient SW at about 0.06au, which we interpret as the average starting distance for actual sheath formation. Between 0.09-0.28au the sheath structure density starts to dominate over the density within the ME. The ME density seems to fall below the ambient SW density over 0.45-1.07au. Besides the well-known expansion of the ME, the sheath size shows a weak positive correlation with distance, while the LE seems not to expand with distance from the Sun. We further find a moderate anti-correlation between sheath density and local SW plasma speed upstream of the ICME shock. An empirical relation is derived connecting the ambient SW speed with sheath and LE density that can be used for modeling of ICME evolution. Constraints to those results are given., Comment: Accepted for A&A

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

We observe and analyse a long-lived corotating interaction region (CIR), originating from a single coronal hole (CH), recurring in 27 consecutive Carrington rotations 2057-2083 in the time period from June 2007 - May 2009. We studied the in situ measurements of this long-lived CIR as well as the corresponding depression in the cosmic ray (CR) count observed by SOHO/EPHIN throughout different rotations. We performed a statistical analysis, as well as the superposed epoch analysis, using relative values of the key parameters: the total magnetic field strength, B, the magnetic field fluctuations, dBrms, plasma flow speed, v, plasma density, n, plasma temperature, T , and the SOHO/EPHIN F-detector particle count, and CR count. We find that the mirrored CR count-time profile is correlated with that of the flow speed, ranging from moderate to strong correlation, depending on the rotation. In addition, we find that the CR count dip amplitude is correlated to the peak in the magnetic field and flow speed of the CIR. These results are in agreement with previous statistical studies. Finally, using the superposed epoch analysis, we obtain a generic CIR example, which reflects the in situ properties of a typical CIR well. Our results are better explained based on the combined convection-diffusion approach of the CIR-related GCR modulation. Furthermore, qualitatively, our results do not differ from those based on different CHs samples. This indicates that the change of the physical properties of the recurring CIR from one rotation to another is not qualitatively different from the change of the physical properties of CIRs originating from different CHs. Finally, the obtained generic CIR example, analyzed on the basis of superposed epoch analysis, can be used as a reference for testing future models., Comment: 13 pages, A&A in press

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development of appropriate metrics in order to assess the performance of those tools. Metrics are necessary to validate models, compare different models and monitor improvements of a certain model over time. In this work, we introduce the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) as an alternative way to evaluate the performance of models and, in particular, to quantify differences between observed and modeled solar wind time series. We present the advantages and drawbacks of this method as well as applications to WIND observations and EUHFORIA predictions at Earth. We show that DTW can warp sequences in time, aiming to align them with the minimum cost by using dynamic programming. It can be applied in two ways for the evaluation of modeled solar wind time series. The first, calculates the sequence similarity factor (SSF), a number that provides a quantification of how good the forecast is, compared to an ideal and a non-ideal prediction scenarios. The second way quantifies the time and amplitude differences between the points that are best matched between the two sequences. As a result, DTW can serve as a hybrid metric between continuous measurements (e.g., the correlation coefficient), and point-by-point comparisons. It is a promising technique for the assessment of solar wind profiles providing at once the most complete evaluation portrait of a model., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal (ApJ) in January 2022. (Comment: Section 5 has been updated as well as a number of figures, compared to the previous version. None of them affected the final results and conclusions. Also, a number of typos have been corrected)

Global magnetic field models use as input synoptic data, which usually show "aging effects" as the longitudinal 360{\deg} information is not obtained simultaneously. Especially during times of increased solar activity, the evolution of the magnetic field may yield large uncertainties. A significant source of uncertainty is the Sun's magnetic field on the side of the Sun that is not visible to the observer. Various methods have been used to complete the picture: synoptic charts, flux-transport models, and far side helioseismology. In this study, we present a new method to estimate the far-side open flux within coronal holes using STEREO EUV observations. First, we correlate the structure of the photospheric magnetic field as observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (HMI/SDO) with features in the transition region. From the 304A intensity distribution, which we found to be specific to coronal holes, we derive an empirical estimate for the open flux. Then we use a large sample of 313 SDO coronal hole observations to verify this relation. Finally, we perform a cross-instrument calibration from SDO to STEREO data to enable the estimation of the open flux at solar longitudes not visible from Earth. We find that the properties of strong, unipolar magnetic elements in the photosphere, which determine the coronal hole's open flux, can be approximated by open fields in the transition region. We find that structures below a threshold of 78% (STEREO) or 94% (SDO) of the solar disk median intensity as seen in 304A filtergrams are reasonably well correlated with the mean magnetic flux density of coronal holes (cc = 0.59). Using the area covered by these structures (A_of) and the area of the coronal hole (A_ch), we model the open magnetic flux of a coronal hole as |Phi_ch| = 0.25 A_ch exp(0.032 A_of) with an estimated uncertainty of 40 to 60%., Comment: Accepted in Solar Physics

The Drag-based Model (DBM) is a 2D analytical model for heliospheric propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in ecliptic plane predicting the CME arrival time and speed at Earth or any other given target in the solar system. It is based on the equation of motion and depends on initial CME parameters, background solar wind speed, $w$ and the drag parameter $\gamma$. A very short computational time of DBM ($<$ 0.01s) allowed us to develop the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) that takes into account the variability of model input parameters by making an ensemble of n different input parameters to calculate the distribution and significance of the DBM results. Thus the DBEM is able to calculate the most likely CME arrival times and speeds, quantify the prediction uncertainties and determine the confidence intervals. A new DBEMv3 version is described in detail and evaluated for the first time determing the DBEMv3 performance and errors by using various CME-ICME lists as well as it is compared with previous DBEM versions. The analysis to find the optimal drag parameter $\gamma$ and ambient solar wind speed $w$ showed that somewhat higher values ($\gamma \approx 0.3 \times 10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$, $w \approx$ 425 km\,s$^{-1}$) for both of these DBEM input parameters should be used for the evaluation compared to the previously employed ones. Based on the evaluation performed for 146 CME-ICME pairs, the DBEMv3 performance with mean error (ME) of -11.3 h, mean absolute error (MAE) of 17.3 h was obtained. There is a clear bias towards the negative prediction errors where the fast CMEs are predicted to arrive too early, probably due to the model physical limitations and input errors (e.g. CME launch speed).

The Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA's Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA's Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews paper by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures., Comment: Accepted for publication in "Living Reviews in Solar Physics" full open access; note: arxiv Figures are of reduced quality; for high quality Figures go to: https://www.springer.com/de/livingreviews/solar-physics

Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs. DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate, and is based on the concept of MHD drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for the shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. Here we give an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters. These include: 1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e. the apex of the CME) or concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); 2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves self-similarly; 3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve self-similarly; 4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input and 5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, of their similarities and differences, as well as discuss and demonstrate their application., Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, accepted in Frontiers March 24th 2021

Coronal holes are large-scale structures in the solar atmosphere that feature a reduced temperature and density in comparison to the surrounding quiet Sun and are usually associated with open magnetic fields. We perform a differential emission measure analysis on the 707 non-polar coronal holes collected in the Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) catalog to derive and statistically analyze their plasma properties (i.e. temperature, electron density, and emission measure). We use intensity filtergrams of the six coronal EUV filters from the \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} onboard of the \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory}, which cover a temperature range from $ \approx 10^{5.5}$ to $10^{7.5}$\,K. Correcting the data for stray and scattered light, we find that all coronal holes have very similar plasma properties with an average temperature of $0.94 \pm 0.18$ MK, a mean electron density of $(2.4 \pm 0.7) \times 10^{8}$\,cm$^{-3}$, and a mean emission measure of $(2.8 \pm 1.6) \times 10^{26}$\,cm$^{-5}$. The temperature distribution within the coronal hole was found to be largely uniform, whereas the electron density shows a $40\,\%$ linear decrease from the boundary towards the inside of the coronal hole. At distances greater than \SI{20}{\arcsecond} ($\approx 15$\,Mm) from the nearest coronal hole boundary, the density also becomes statistically uniform. The coronal hole temperature may show a weak solar cycle dependency, but no statistically significant correlation of plasma properties to solar cycle variations could be determined throughout the observed time period between 2010 and 2019., Comment: Version is before editorial comments and typesetting. Solar Physics Version is available as open access

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHI) ensemble modelling. An estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions is obtained by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (WSA/HUX) model combination that serves as input to ELEvoHI. We carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012 that show clear signatures in both STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI time-elongation maps, that propagate close to the ecliptic plane, and that have corresponding in situ signatures at Earth. We find a mean arrival time difference of 6.5 hrs between predictions from the two different viewpoints, which can reach up to 9.5 hrs for individual CMEs, while the mean arrival speed difference is 63 km s$^{-1}$. An ambient solar wind with a large speed variance leads to larger differences in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B CME arrival time predictions ($cc~=~0.92$). Additionally, we compare the predicted arrivals, from both spacecraft, to the actual in situ arrivals at Earth and find a mean absolute error of 7.5 $\pm$ 9.5 hrs for the arrival time and 87 $\pm$ 111 km s$^{-1}$ for the arrival speed. There is no tendency for one spacecraft to provide more accurate arrival predictions than the other.

We inspect the evolution of SIRs from Earth to Mars (distance range 1-1.5 AU) over the declining phase of solar cycle 24 (2014-2018). So far, studies only analyzed SIRs measured at Earth and Mars at different times. We compare existing catalogs for both heliospheric distances and arrive at a clean dataset for the identical time range. This allows a well-sampled statistical analysis and for the opposition phases of the planets an in-depth analysis of SIRs as they evolve with distance. We use in-situ solar wind data from OMNI and the MAVEN spacecraft as well as remote sensing data from SDO. A superposed epoch analysis is performed for bulk speed, proton density, temperature, magnetic field magnitude and total perpendicular pressure. Additionally, a study of events during the two opposition phases of Earth and Mars in the years 2016 and 2018 is conducted. SIR related coronal holes with their area as well as their latitudinal and longitudinal extent are extracted and correlated to the maximum bulk speed and duration of the corresponding high speed solar wind streams following the stream interaction regions. We find that while the entire solar wind HSS shows no expansion as it evolves from Earth to Mars, the crest of the HSS profile broadens by about 17%, and the magnetic field and total pressure by about 45% around the stream interface. The difference between the maximum and minimum values in the normalized superposed profiles increases slightly or stagnates from 1-1.5 AU for all parameters, except for the temperature. A sharp drop at zero epoch time is observed in the superposed profiles for the magnetic field strength at both heliospheric distances. Maximum solar wind speed has a stronger dependence on the latitudinal extent of the respective coronal hole than on its longitudinal extent. We arrive at an occurrence rate of fast forward shocks three times as high at Mars than at Earth., Comment: Accepted for Publication in A&A

This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. The Sun Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying time scales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short time scale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction and morphology of CMEs in both 3-D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved., Comment: Review article, 184 pages

This work aims to detect and classify stellar flares and potential stellar coronal mass ejection (CME) signatures in optical spectra provided by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data release 14. The sample is constrained to all F, G, K, and M main-sequence type stars, resulting in more than 630,000 stars. This work makes use of the individual spectral exposures provided by the SDSS. An automatic flare search was performed by detecting significant amplitude changes in the $H\alpha$ and $H\beta$ spectral lines after a Gaussian profile was fit to the line core. CMEs were searched for by identifying asymmetries in the Balmer lines caused by the Doppler effect of plasma motions in the line of sight. We identified 281 flares on late-type stars (spectral types K3 to M9). We identified six possible CME candidates showing excess flux in Balmer line wings. Flare energies in $H\alpha$ were calculated and masses of the CME candidates were estimated. The derived $H\alpha$ flare energies range from $3 \times 10^{28} - 2 \times 10^{33}$ erg. The $H\alpha$ flare energy increases with earlier types, while the fraction of flaring times increases with later types. Mass estimates for the CME candidates are in the range of $6 \times 10^{16} - 6 \times 10^{18}$ g, and the highest projected velocities are $\sim300 - 700\:$ km/s. The low detection rate of CMEs we obtained agrees with previous studies, suggesting that for late-type main-sequence stars the CME occurrence rate that can be detected with optical spectroscopy is low., Comment: Contains 22 pages and 21 figures. Properties of the flaring stars and the derived parameters of the flares are available at CDS

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $\gamma$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed., Comment: accepted for publication in ApJL

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head-on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modelling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modelling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (ForbMod). We find a reasonable agreement of the ForbMod model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modelled FDs reflect well the CME evolution., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures, accepted in Solar Physics

Forbush decreases (FDs), which are short-term drops in the flux of galactic cosmic rays, are caused by the shielding from strong and/or turbulent magnetic structures in the solar wind, especially interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks, as well as corotating interaction regions. Such events can be observed at Earth, for example, using neutron monitors, and also at many other locations in the solar system, such as on the surface of Mars with the Radiation Assessment Detector instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory. They are often used as a proxy for detecting the arrival of ICMEs or corotating interaction regions, especially when sufficient in situ solar wind measurements are not available. We compare the properties of FDs observed at Earth and Mars, focusing on events produced by ICMEs. We find that FDs at both locations show a correlation between their total amplitude and the maximum hourly decrease, but with different proportionality factors. We explain this difference using theoretical modeling approaches and suggest that it is related to the size increase of ICMEs, and in particular their sheath regions, en route from Earth to Mars. From the FD data, we can derive the sheath broadening factor to be between about 1.5 and 1.9, agreeing with our theoretical considerations. This factor is also in line with previous measurements of the sheath evolution closer to the Sun.

We use Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) data to reconstruct the plasma properties from differential emission measure (DEM) analysis for a previously studied long-lived, low-latitude coronal hole (CH) over its lifetime of ten solar rotations. We initially obtain a non-isothermal DEM distribution with a dominant component centered around 0.9 MK and a secondary smaller component at 1.5 - 2.0 MK. We find that deconvolving the data with the instrument point spread function (PSF) to account for long-range scattered light reduces the secondary hot component. Using the 2012 Venus transit and a 2013 lunar eclipse to test the efficiency of this deconvolution, significant amounts of residual stray light are found for the occulted areas. Accounting for this stray light in the error budget of the different AIA filters further reduces the secondary hot emission, yielding CH DEM distributions that are close to isothermal with the main contribution centered around 0.9 MK. Based on these DEMs, we analyze the evolution of the emission measure (EM), density, and averaged temperature during the CH's lifetime. We find that once the CH is clearly observed in EUV images, the bulk of the CH plasma reveals a quite constant state, i.e. temperature and density reveal no major changes, whereas the total CH area and the photospheric magnetic fine structure inside the CH show a distinct evolutionary pattern. These findings suggest that CH plasma properties are mostly "set" at the CH formation or/and that all CHs have similar plasma properties., Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its Bz until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the Bz amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum Bz amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

In this study, we investigate in detail the photospheric magnetic structure of 98 coronal holes using line-of-sight magnetograms of SDO/HMI, and for a subset of 42 coronal holes using HINODE/SOT G-band filtergrams. We divided the magnetic field maps into magnetic elements and quiet coronal hole regions by applying a threshold at $\pm 25$ G. We find that the number of magnetic bright points in magnetic elements is well correlated with the area of the magnetic elements (cc=$0.83\pm 0.01$). Further, the magnetic flux of the individual magnetic elements inside coronal holes is related to their area by a power law with an exponent of $1.261\pm 0.004$ (cc=$0.984\pm 0.001$). Relating the magnetic elements to the overall structure of coronal holes, we find that on average ($69\pm 8$) % of the overall unbalanced magnetic flux of the coronal holes arises from long-lived magnetic elements with lifetimes > 40 hours. About ($22\pm 4$) % of the unbalanced magnetic flux arises from a very weak background magnetic field in the quiet coronal hole regions with a mean magnetic field density of about 0.2 to 1.2 G. This background magnetic field is correlated to the flux of the magnetic elements with lifetimes of > 40 h (cc=$0.88\pm 0.02$). The remaining flux arises from magnetic elements with lifetimes < 40 hours. By relating the properties of the magnetic elements to the overall properties of the coronal holes, we find that the unbalanced magnetic flux of the coronal holes is completely determined by the total area that the long-lived magnetic elements cover (cc=$0.994\pm 0.001$).

In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun up to 3 Rsun. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30 degrees due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME-HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CMEs Altered Trajectory ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth's magnetosphere., Comment: Accepted in Solar Physics on August 26, 2019

The study of the evolution of coronal holes (CHs) is especially important in the context of high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) emanating from them. Stream interaction regions may deliver large amount of energy into the Earths system, cause geomagnetic storms, and shape interplanetary space. By statistically analysing 16 long-living CHs observed by the SDO, we focus on coronal, morphological and underlying photospheric magnetic field characteristics as well as investigate the evolution of the associated HSSs. We use CATCH to extract and analyse CHs using observations taken by AIA and HMI. We derive changes in the CH properties and correlate them to the CH evolution. Further we analyse the properties of the HSS signatures near 1au from OMNI data by manually extracting the peak bulk velocity of the solar wind plasma. We find that the area evolution of CHs mostly shows a rough trend of growing to a maximum followed by a decay. No correlation of the area evolution to the evolution of the signed magnetic flux and signed magnetic flux density enclosed in the projected CH area was found. From this we conclude that the magnetic flux within the extracted CH boundaries is not the main cause for its area evolution. We derive CH area change rates (growth and decay) of 14.2 +/- 15.0 * 10^8 km^2/day showing a reasonable anti-correlation (cc =-0.48) to the solar activity, approximated by the sunspot number. The change rates of the signed mean magnetic flux density (27.3 +/- 32.2 mG/day) and the signed magnetic flux (30.3 +/- 31.5 * 10^18 Mx/day) were also found to be dependent on solar activity (cc =0.50 and cc =0.69 respectively) rather than on the individual CH evolutions. Further we find that the CH area-to-HSS peak velocity relation is valid for each CH over its evolution but revealing significant variations in the slopes of the regression lines., Comment: Accepted at A&A

Coronal holes are usually defined as dark structures as seen in the extreme ultraviolet and X-ray spectrum which are generally associated with open magnetic field. Deriving reliably the coronal hole boundary is of high interest, as its area, underlying magnetic field, and other properties give important hints towards high speed solar wind acceleration processes and on compression regions arriving at Earth. In this study we present a new threshold based extraction method that incorporates the intensity gradient along the coronal hole boundary, which is implemented as a user-friendly SSWIDL GUI. The Collection of Analysis Tools for Coronal Holes (CATCH) enables the user to download data, perform guided coronal hole extraction and analyze the underlying photospheric magnetic field. We use CATCH to analyze non-polar coronal holes during the SDO-era, based on 193 {\AA} filtergrams taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms taken by the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Between 2010 and 2019 we investigate 707 coronal holes that are located close to the central meridian. We find coronal holes distributed across latitudes of about +/- 60 degree for which we derive sizes between 1.6 x 10 9 and 1.8 x 10 11 km^2 . The absolute value of the mean signed magnetic field strength tends towards an average of 2.9 +/- 1.9 G. As far as the abundance and size of coronal holes is concerned, we find no distinct trend towards the northern or southern hemisphere. We find that variations in local and global conditions may significantly change the threshold needed for reliable coronal hole extraction and thus, we can highlight the importance of individually assessing and extracting coronal holes., Comment: 30 pages, 14 figures; accepted for publication in Solar Physics October 04, 2019

On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15\% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures

We study the coronal dimming caused by the fast halo CME (deprojected speed v =1250 km s $^{-1})$ associated with the C3.7 two-ribbon flare on 2012 September 27, using Hinode/EIS spectroscopy and SDO/AIA Differential Emission Measure (DEM) analysis. The event reveals bipolar core dimmings encompassed by hook-shaped flare ribbons located at the ends of the flare-related polarity inversion line, and marking the footpoints of the erupting filament. In coronal emission lines of $\log T \, [{\rm K}] = 5.8-6.3$, distinct double component spectra indicative of the superposition of a stationary and a fast up-flowing plasma component with velocities up to 130 km s$^{-1}$ are observed at regions, which were mapped by the scanning EIS slit close in time of their impulsive dimming onset. The outflowing plasma component is found to be of the same order and even dominant over the stationary one, with electron densities in the upflowing component of $2\times 10^{9}$cm$^{-3}$ at $\log T \, [{\rm K}] = 6.2$. The density evolution in core dimming regions derived from SDO/AIA DEM analysis reveals impulsive reductions by $40 - 50\%$ within $\lesssim$10 min, and remains at these reduced levels for hours. The mass loss rate derived from the EIS spectroscopy in the dimming regions is of the same order than the mass increase rate observed in the associated white light CME ($1 \times 10^{12} {\rm \; g \; s}^{-1}$), indicative that the CME mass increase in the coronagraphic field-of-view results from plasma flows from below and not from material piled-up ahead of the outward moving and expanding CME front., Comment: 15 pages, accepted by ApJ

The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission's Curiosity rover has been measuring galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) on the surface of Mars for more than 6 years since its landing in August 2012. The observations include a large number of Forbush decreases (FD) caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and/or their associated shocks shielding away part of the GCR particles with their turbulent and enhanced magnetic fields while passing Mars. This study combines MSL/RAD FD measurements and remote tracking of ICMEs using the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imager (HI) telescopes in a statistical study for the first time. The large data set collected by HI makes it possible to analyze 149 ICMEs propagating toward MSL both during its 8-month cruise phase and after its landing on Mars. We link 45 of the events observed at STEREO-HI to their corresponding FDs at MSL/RAD and study the accuracy of the ICME arrival time at Mars predicted from HI data using different methods. The mean differences between the predicted arrival times and those observed using FDs range from -11 to 5 hr for the different methods, with standard deviations between 17 and 20 hr. These values for predictions at Mars are very similar compared to other locations closer to the Sun and also comparable to the precision of some other modeling approaches.

EUV waves are large-scale disturbances in the solar corona initiated by coronal mass ejections. However, solar EUV images show only the wave fronts projections along the line-of-sight of the spacecraft. We perform 3D reconstructions of EUV wave front heights using multi-point observations from STEREO-A and STEREO-B, and study their evolution to properly estimate the EUV wave kinematics. We develop two different methods to solve the matching problem of the EUV wave crest on pairs of STEREO-A/-B images by combining epipolar geometry with the investigation of perturbation profiles. The proposed approaches are applicable at the early and maximum stage of the event when STEREO-A/-B see different facets of the EUV wave, but also at the later stage when the wave front becomes diffusive and faint. The techniques developed are demonstrated on two events observed at different separation of the STEREO spacecraft (42$^\circ$ and 91$^\circ$). For the 7 December 2007 event, we find that the emission of the EUV wave front mainly comes from a height range up to 90-104 Mm, decreasing later to 7-35 Mm. Including the varying height of the EUV wave front allows us to correct the wave kinematics for the projection effects, resulting in velocities in the range 217-266 km/s. For the 13 February 2009 event, the wave front height doubled from 54 to 93 Mm over 10 min, and the velocity derived is 205-208 km/s. In the two events under study, the corrected speeds differ by up to 25% from the uncorrected ones, depending on the wave front height evolution., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Interplanetary evolution of eleven magnetic clouds (MCs) recorded by at least two radially aligned spacecraft is studied. The in situ magnetic field measurements are fitted to a cylindrically symmetric Gold-Hoyle force-free uniform-twist flux-rope configuration. The analysis reveals that in a statistical sense the expansion of studied MCs is compatible with self-similar behavior. However, individual events expose a large scatter of expansion rates, ranging from very weak to very strong expansion. Individually, only four events show an expansion rate compatible with the isotropic self-similar expansion. The results indicate that the expansion has to be much stronger when MCs are still close to the Sun than in the studied 0.47 - 4.8 AU distance range. The evolution of the magnetic field strength shows a large deviation from the behavior expected for the case of an isotropic self-similar expansion. In the statistical sense, as well as in most of the individual events, the inferred magnetic field decreases much slower than expected. Only three events show a behavior compatible with a self-similar expansion. There is also a discrepancy between the magnetic field decrease and the increase of the MC size, indicating that magnetic reconnection and geometrical deformations play a significant role in the MC evolution. About half of the events show a decay of the electric current as expected for the self-similar expansion. Statistically, the inferred axial magnetic flux is broadly consistent with it remaining constant. However, events characterized by large magnetic flux show a clear tendency of decreasing flux., Comment: 64 pages, 10 figures

We analyse the 2010 April 3rd CME using spacecraft coronagraphic images at different vantage points (SOHO, STEREO-A and STEREO-B). We perform a 3D reconstruction of both the flux rope and shock using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model to calculate CME kinematic and morphologic parameters (e.g. velocity, acceleration, radius). The obtained results are fitted with empirical models describing the expansion of the CME radius in the heliosphere and compared with in situ measurements from Wind spacecraft: the CME is found to expand linearly towards Earth. Finally, we relate the event with decreases in the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Flux, known as Forbush decreases (FD), detected by EPHIN instrument onboard SOHO spacecraft. We use the analytical diffusion-expansion model (ForbMod) to calculate the magnetic field power law index, obtaining a value of approximately 1.6, thus estimating a starting magnetic field of around 0.01 G and an axial magnetic flux of around 5x1E20 Mx at 15.6 Rsun., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Central European Astrophysical Bulletin

We present a refined statistical analysis based on interplanetary coronal mass ejections as well as co-rotating interaction regions for the time period 2003-2015 to estimate the impact of different solar wind types on the geomagnetic activity and the neutral density in the Earth's thermosphere. For the time-based delimitation of the events, we rely on the catalog maintained by Richardson and Cane and the CIR-lists provided by S. Vennerstroem and Jian et al. [2011]. These archives are based on in-situ measurements from the ACE and/or the Wind spacecraft. On this basis, we thoroughly investigated 196 Earth-directed ICME and 195 CIR events. To verify the impact on the Earth's thermosphere we determined neutral mass densities by using accelerometer measurements collected by the low-Earth orbiting satellites GRACE and CHAMP. Subsequently, the atmospheric densities are related to characteristic ICME parameters. In this process a new calibration method has been examined. Since increased solar activity may lead to a decrease of the satellites orbital altitude we additionally assessed the orbital decay for each of the events and satellites. The influence of CIR events is in the same range of magnitude as the majority of the ICMEs (186 out of 196). Even though, the extended investigation period between 2011 and 2015 has a lack of extreme solar events the combined analysis reveals comparable correlation coefficients between the neutral densities and the various ICME and geomagnetic parameters (mostly > 0.85). The evaluation of orbit decay rates at different altitudes revealed a high dependency on the satellite actual altitude., Comment: accepted for publication in JGR-Space Physics

The X8.2 event of 10 September 2017 provides unique observations to study the genesis, magnetic morphology and impulsive dynamics of a very fast CME. Combining GOES-16/SUVI and SDO/AIA EUV imagery, we identify a hot ($T\approx 10-15$ MK) bright rim around a quickly expanding cavity, embedded inside a much larger CME shell ($T\approx 1-2$ MK). The CME shell develops from a dense set of large AR loops ($\gtrsim$0.5 $R_s$), and seamlessly evolves into the CME front observed in LASCO C2. The strong lateral overexpansion of the CME shell acts as a piston initiating the fast EUV wave. The hot cavity rim is demonstrated to be a manifestation of the dominantly poloidal flux and frozen-in plasma added to the rising flux rope by magnetic reconnection in the current sheet beneath. The same structure is later observed as the core of the white light CME, challenging the traditional interpretation of the CME three-part morphology. The large amount of added magnetic flux suggested by these observations explains the extreme accelerations of the radial and lateral expansion of the CME shell and cavity, all reaching values of $5 - 10$ km s$^{-2}$. The acceleration peaks occur simultaneously with the first RHESSI $100-300$ keV hard X-ray burst of the associated flare, further underlining the importance of the reconnection process for the impulsive CME evolution. Finally, the much higher radial propagation speed of the flux rope in relation to the CME shell causes a distinct deformation of the white light CME front and shock., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are believed to be effective in producing shocks in the solar corona and the interplanetary space. One of the important signatures of shocks and shock acceleration are Type II solar radio bursts that drift with the shock speed and produce bands of fundamental and higher harmonic plasma radio emission. An intriguing aspect of Type II radio bursts is the occasional split of a harmonic band into thinner lanes, known as band-splitting. Here, we report a detailed imaging and spectroscopic observation of a CME-driven shock producing band-splitting in a Type II burst. Using the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR), we examine the spatial and temporal relation of the Type II burst to the associated CME event, use source imaging to calculate the apparent coronal density, and demonstrate how source imaging can be used to estimate projection effects. We consider two widely accepted band-splitting models that make opposing predictions regarding the locations of the true emission sources with respect to the shock front. Our observations suggest that the locations of the upper and lower sub-band sources are spatially separated by $\sim 0.2 \pm 0.05 \, \mathrm{R_\odot}$. However, we quantitatively show, for the first time, that such separation is consistent with radio-wave scattering of plasma radio emission from a single region, implying that the split-band Type II sources could originate from nearly co-spatial locations. Considering the effects of scattering, the observations provide supporting evidence for the model that interprets the band-splitting as emission originating in the upstream and downstream regions of the shock front, two virtually co-spatial areas., Comment: Published by ApJ, 13 pages, 7 figures

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last six years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past six years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid 2018, and additionally focus on 28 events all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times -- in an average sense -- to within 10 hours, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hours. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of -1 hour, a mean absolute error of 13 hours, and a precision (s.d.) of 15 hours. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

We present a statistical study of 62 coronal dimming events associated with Earth-directed CMEs during the quasi-quadrature period of STEREO and SDO. This unique setting allows us to study both phenomena in great detail and compare characteristic quantities statistically. Coronal dimmings are observed on-disk by SDO/AIA and HMI, while the CME kinematics during the impulsive acceleration phase is studied close to the limb with STEREO/EUVI and COR, minimizing projection effects. The dimming area, its total unsigned magnetic flux and its total brightness, reflecting properties of the total dimming region at its final extent, show the highest correlations with the CME mass ($c\sim0.6-0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dynamics of the dimming evolution, show the strongest correlations with the CME peak velocity ($c\sim 0.6$). The highest correlation of $c=0.68\pm0.08$ is found with the mean intensity of dimmings, indicating that the lower the CME starts in the corona, the faster it propagates. No significant correlation between dimming parameters and the CME acceleration was found. However, for events where high-cadence STEREO observations were available, the mean unsigned magnetic field density in the dimming regions tends to be positively correlated with the CME peak acceleration ($c=0.42\pm0.20$). This suggests that stronger magnetic fields result in higher Lorentz forces providing stronger driving force for the CME acceleration. Specific coronal dimming parameters correlate with both, CME and flare quantities providing further evidence for the flare-CME feedback relationship. For events in which the CME occurs together with a flare, coronal dimmings statistically reflect the properties of both phenomena., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, 1 table, submitted to ApJ

Coronal dimmings, localized regions of reduced emission in the EUV and soft X-rays, are interpreted as density depletions due to mass loss during the CME expansion. They contain crucial information on the early evolution of CMEs low in the corona. For 62 dimming events, characteristic parameters are derived, statistically analyzed and compared with basic flare quantities. On average, coronal dimmings have a size of $2.15\times10^{10}$ km$^{2}$, contain a total unsigned magnetic flux of $1.75\times10^{21}$ Mx, and show a total brightness decrease of $-1.91\times10^{6}$ DN, which results in a relative decrease of $\sim$60% compared to the pre-eruption intensity level. Their main evacuation phase lasts for $\sim$50 minutes. The dimming area, the total dimming brightness, and the total unsigned magnetic flux show the highest correlation with the flare SXR fluence ($c\gtrsim0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dimming dynamics, strongly correlate with the GOES flare class ($c\gtrsim 0.6$). For 60% of the events we identified core dimmings, i.e. signatures of an erupting flux rope. They contain 20% of the magnetic flux covering only 5% of the total dimming area. Secondary dimmings map overlying fields that are stretched during the eruption and closed down by magnetic reconnection, thus adding flux to the erupting flux rope via magnetic reconnection. This interpretation is supported by the strong correlation between the magnetic fluxes of secondary dimmings and flare reconnection fluxes ($c=0.63\pm0.08$), the balance between positive and negative magnetic fluxes ($c=0.83\pm0.04$) within the total dimmings and the fact that for strong flares ($>$M1.0) the reconnection and secondary dimming fluxes are roughly equal., Comment: 24 pages, 21 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ