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1. Weather radar networks provide wide-ranging opportunities for ecologists to quantify and predict movements of airborne organisms over unprecedented geographical expanses. The typically sparse spatial distribution of radar measurements poses, however, a major challenge to spatiotemporal predictive modelling.2. We propose FluxRGNN, a recurrent graph neural network that is based on a generic mechanistic description of population-level movements across the Voronoi tessellation of radar sites. The resulting hybrid model capitalises on local associations between environmental conditions and animal density as well as on spatiotemporal dependencies inherent to the movement process. We applied FluxRGNN to make 72-h forecasts of nocturnal bird migration over Western Europe using simulated trajectories and measurements from the European weather radar network.3. For both datasets, FluxRGNN achieves higher predictive performance than baseline models based on environmental conditions alone. It effectively disentangles local take-off and landing dynamics from aerial movements and correctly predicts migration directions with an accuracy of 87%.4. Continental-scale forecasts of animal density and biomass fluxes have the potential to improve the impact and cost-effectiveness of wildlife management and conservation efforts. With FluxRGNN this becomes feasible for nocturnal bird migration. In the future, other migration systems could benefit from applying the proposed method to similar static sensor networks.

Protecting nature’s contributions to people requires accelerating extinction risk assessment and better integrating evolutionary, functional and used diversity with conservation planning. Here, we report machine learning extinction risk predictions for 1,381 palm species (Arecaceae), a plant family of high socio-economic and ecological importance. We integrate these predictions with published assessments for 508 species (covering 75% of all palm species) and we identify top-priority regions for palm conservation on the basis of their proportion of threatened evolutionarily distinct, functionally distinct and used species. Finally, we explore palm use resilience to identify non-threatened species that could potentially serve as substitutes for threatened used species by providing similar products. We estimate that over a thousand palms (56%) are probably threatened, including 185 species with documented uses. Some regions (New Guinea, Vanuatu and Vietnam) emerge as top ten priorities for conservation only after incorporating machine learning extinction risk predictions. Potential substitutes are identified for 91% of the threatened used species and regional use resilience increases with total palm richness. However, 16 threatened used species lack potential substitutes and 30 regions lack substitutes for at least one of their threatened used palm species. Overall, we show that hundreds of species of this keystone family face extinction, some of them probably irreplaceable, at least locally. This highlights the need for urgent actions to avoid major repercussions on palm-associated ecosystem processes and human livelihoods in the coming decades.

1AbstractIndividuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in out-comes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes will vary due to individual stochasticity, i.e., to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understanding natural variability. Inter-individual differences vary across environmental conditions. Heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favorable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.

Most studies on unemployment have assessed its individual-level costs. However, beyond its effects on individuals, unemployment incurs costs for their immediate families and extended kin. Close kin provide the majority of social support for unemployed adults. Applying demographic and statistical techniques to official statistics and using COVID-19 survey data on kinship and labor force experience, we assess the unemployment level and exposure to unemployment in the United States from a kinship perspective. The results indicate dramatic racial disparities in the number of unemployed kin and the number of kin affected by an unemployed person. Specifically, during the pandemic-induced recession, Black Americans had 1.7 unemployed people in their extended family compared with 1.2 among Whites. Further, every job loss in a Black extended family affected approximately 23 related members of the family through kinship ties, compared with approximately 20 among Whites. The racial gap in the number of unemployed kin is evident in all age-groups and escalates with age. This study's findings highlight the need to understand unemployment and its demographic implications, which are stratified by race.

Variance among individuals in fitness components reflects both genuine heterogeneity between individuals and stochasticity in events experienced along the life cycle. Maternal age represents a form of heterogeneity that affects both the mean and the variance of lifetime reproductive output (LRO). Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal age heterogeneity to the variance in LRO using individual-level laboratory data on the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas to parameterize a multistate age × maternal age matrix model. In B. manjavacas, advanced maternal age has large negative effects on offspring survival and fertility. We used multistate Markov chains with rewards to quantify the contributions to variance in LRO of heterogeneity and of the stochasticity inherent in the outcomes of probabilistic transitions and reproductive events. Under laboratory conditions, maternal age heterogeneity contributes 26% of the variance in LRO. The contribution changes when mortality and fertility are reduced to mimic more ecologically relevant environments. Over the parameter space where populations are near stationarity, maternal age heterogeneity contributes an average of 3% of the variance. Thus, the contributions of maternal age heterogeneity and individual stochasticity can be expected to depend strongly on environmental conditions; over most of the parameter space, the variance in LRO is dominated by stochasticity.

[Aim] Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain., [Location] Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. [Time period] From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. [Taxa] Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. [Methods] Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. [Results] Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. [Main conclusion] Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems., Fieldwork at Manú was conducted under the permits 041-2010-AG-DGFFSDGEFFS, 008-2011-AG-DGFFS-DGEFFS, 01-C/C-2010SERNANP-JPNM and 01-2011-SERNANP-PNM-JEF and supported by a scholarship from the German Academic Exchange Service to D.M.D. D.M.D. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant number 787638) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 173342), both awarded to C. H. Graham. W.D.K. acknowledges a Global Ecology grant from the University of Amsterdam Faculty Research Cluster. I.D. was funded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and is now supported by the Balearic Government. S.A.F. was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG; FR 3246/2-2) and the Leibniz Competition of the Leibniz Association (P52/2017).

Misidentification of marked individuals is unavoidable in most studies of wild animal populations. Models commonly used for the estimation of survival from such capture–recaapture data ignore misidentification errors potentially resulting in biased parameter estimates. With a simulation study, we show that ignoring misidentification in Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models results in systematic positive biases in the estimates of survival and in spurious declines of survival over time. We developed an extended robust design capture mark–resight (RDM) model that includes correct identification parameters to get unbiased survival estimates when resighting histories are prone to misidentification. The model assumes that resightings occur repeatedly within a season, which in practice is often the case when resightings of colour-marked individuals are collected. We implemented the RDM model in a state-space formulation and also an approximate, but computationally faster, model (RDMa) in JAGS and evaluated their performances using simulated and empirical capture–resight data on black-tailed godwits Limosa limosa. The CJS models applied to simulated data under an imperfect identification scenario data produced strongly positively biased estimates of survival. For a range of degrees of correct identification probabilities, the RDM model provided unbiased and accurate estimates of survival, reencounter and correct-identification probabilities. The RDMa model performed well for large datasets (>25 individuals), with high resighting (>0.3) and high correct identification (>0.7) probabilities. For the empirical data, the CJS model estimated average juvenile survival at 0.997% and adult survival at 0.939% and also detected a strong decline in adult survival over time at a rate of −0.14 ± 0.029. In contrast, the RDMa model estimated a probability of correct identification of 0.94, annual juvenile survival at 0.234%, adult at 0.834% and less strong decline over time (−0.046 ± 0.016). We conclude that estimates of survival probabilities obtained from data that include misidentification errors and analysed with standard CJS model are unlikely to be correct. The bias in survival increases with the magnitude of misidentification errors, which is inevitable as datasets become longer. Since misidentification due to tag misreads is common in empirical data, we recommend the use of the here presented RDM model to provide unbiased parameter estimates.

Aim: How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait-based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species.Location: A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south-east Peru.Methods: We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait-based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes).Results: We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait-based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity were not related across species.Main conclusions: These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait-based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages.

Species interactions are influenced by the trait structure of local multi-trophic communities. However, it remains unclear whether mutualistic interactions in particular can drive trait patterns at the global scale, where climatic constraints and biogeographic processes gain importance. Here we evaluate global relationships between traits of frugivorous birds and palms (Arecaceae), and how these relationships are affected, directly or indirectly, by assemblage richness, climate and biogeographic history. We leverage a new and expanded gape size dataset for nearly all avian frugivores, and find a positive relationship between gape size and fruit size, that is, trait matching, which is influenced indirectly by palm richness and climate. We also uncover a latitudinal gradient in trait matching strength, which increases towards the tropics and varies among zoogeographic realms. Taken together, our results suggest trophic interactions have consistent influences on trait structure, but that abiotic, biogeographic and richness effects also play important, though sometimes indirect, roles in shaping the functional biogeography of mutualisms.

1. The postnatal growth period is a crucial life stage, with potential lifelong effects on an animal's fitness. How fast animals grow depends on their life-history strategy and rearing environment, and interspecific comparisons generally show higher growth rates at higher latitudes. However, to elucidate the mechanisms behind this gradient in growth rate, intraspecific comparisons are needed.2. Recently, barnacle geese expanded their Arctic breeding range from the Russian Barents Sea coast southwards, and now also breed along the Baltic and North Sea coasts. Baltic breeders shortened their migration, while barnacle geese breeding along the North Sea stopped migrating entirely.3. We collected cross-sectional data on gosling tarsus length, head length and body mass, and constructed population-specific growth curves to compare growth rates among three populations (Barents Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea) spanning 17° in latitude.4. Growth rate was faster at higher latitudes, and the gradient resembled the latitudinal gradient previously observed in an interspecific comparison of precocial species. Differences in day length among the three breeding regions could largely explain the observed differences in growth rate. In the Baltic, and especially in the Arctic population, growth rate was slower later in the season, most likely because of the stronger seasonal decline in food quality.5. Our results suggest that differences in postnatal growth rate between the Arctic and temperate populations are mainly a plastic response to local environmental conditions. This plasticity can increase the individuals' ability to cope with annual variation in local conditions, but can also increase the potential to re-distribute and adapt to new breeding environments.

Lachryphagous males of Phortica variegata (Fallén, 1823) are gaining increasing attention in Europe, as they act as vectors of the nematode Thelazia callipaeda Railliet & Henry, 1910, causal agent of thelaziosis, an emergent zoonotic disease. Currently, there are no effective control strategies against the vector, and surveillance and monitoring rely on time-consuming and nonselective sampling methods. Our aim was to improve the knowledge about the population dynamics and the chemical ecology of the species. A total of 5,726 P. variegata flies (96.4% males and 3.6% females, mostly gravid) were collected in field experiments during June–September of 2020 in an oak forest in northern Spain. Our results indicate that 1) by means of sweep netting a significantly higher number of captures were found both around the collector´s body and in the air than at ground level; 2) a positive relationship was detected between the abundance of Phortica flies and temperature, with two significant peaks of abundance at 24 and 33°C; 3) the blend of red wine and cider vinegar was the most attractive bait; 4) yellow traps captured fewer flies compared to black and transparent traps; and 5) a significant reduction toward vinegar and wine was detected in presence of the phenolic monoterpenoid carvacrol. In addition, all the males (n = 690) analyzed by both molecular detection and dissection resulted negative for the presence of T. callipaeda larvae. Overall, these findings provide a better understanding of the vector in terms of monitoring and management strategies., Special thanks are given to the manager of the Izki Golf Club for providing the funding to complete part of the study. M.F. is currently funded by European Union Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (844285; ‘EpiEcoMod’). We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their many insightful comments and suggestions which helped us to significantly improve the manuscript. This study is part of a work awarded in 2021 with the "III Premio Nacional Felix Pérez y Pérez" of the Illustrious Official College of Veterinarians of Burgos, Spain.

The dodo (Raphus cucullatus) was a large, flightless pigeon endemic to the island of Mauritius (Indian Ocean). Its unusual appearance was recorded in several 17th-century depictions of live or recently killed birds. It became extinct at the end of the 17th century, and in some subsequent accounts, it was even considered as non-existent. Dodo images became rare from the mid-17th century, but its inclusion in Lewis Carroll’s Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland initiated a change, establishing it as an icon to a much wider public. Since then, illustrations of dodos have been used in all kinds of media, arguably making it the most iconic extinct bird. Here we analyse how the dodo image evolved from 1600 to 2013, using 2D-geometric morphometrics. Our results show that in particular cartoons, animations and logos tend to put an extreme emphasis on the bulging anterior part of the beak, and that the beak is strongly hooked. The variation in dodo images has increased since 1865, culminating in an explosion of shapes during the past decades. The often exaggerated, cartoonesque depiction of the dodo is in line with the long-held but incorrect popular belief that it was a clumsy, tragic bird destined for extinction.

Literate computing environments, such as the Jupyter (i.e., Jupyter Notebooks, JupyterLab, and JupyterHub), have been widely used in scientific studies; they allow users to interactively develop scientific code, test algorithms, and describe the scientific narratives of the experiments in an integrated document. To scale up scientific analyses, many implemented Jupyter environment architectures encapsulate the whole Jupyter notebooks as reproducible units and autoscale them on dedicated remote infrastructures (e.g., highperformance computing and cloud computing environments). The existing solutions are still limited in many ways, e.g., 1) the workflow (or pipeline) is implicit in a notebook, and some steps can be generically used by different code and executed in parallel, but because of the tight cell structure, all steps in the Jupyter notebook have to be executed sequentially and lack of the flexibility of reusing the core code fragments, and 2) there are performance bottlenecks that need to improve the parallelism and scalability when handling extensive input data and complex computation. In this work, we focus on how to manage the workflow in a notebook seamlessly. We 1) encapsulate the reusable cells as RESTful services and containerize them as portal components, 2) provide a composition tool for describing workflow logic of those reusable components, and 3) automate the execution on remote cloud infrastructure. Empirically, we validate the solution's usability via a use case from the Ecology and Earth Science domain, illustrating the processing of massive Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. The demonstration and analysis show that our method is feasible, but that it needs further improvement, especially on integrating distributed workflow scheduling, automatic deployment, and execution to develop as a mature approach.

Movements through or use of offshore wind farms by seabirds while commuting or foraging may increase the potential for collision with turbine blades. Collision risk models provide a method for estimating potential impacts of wind farms on seabird populations, but are sensitive to input parameters, including avoidance rates (ARs). Refining understanding of avoidance through the use of high-resolution empirical movement data has the potential to inform assessments of the collision impacts of offshore wind farms on seabird populations. We assessed the movements of GPS-tagged lesser black-backed gulls Larus fuscus from a breeding colony in northwest England to estimate the species’ AR and avoidance/attraction index (AAI) to nearby offshore wind farms. To investigate both macro- (0-4 km) and meso-scale (0-200 m) responses to wind turbines, we used calculations of AR and AAI based on simulated vs. observed tracks. We found that birds exhibited an AR of -0.15 (95% CI: -0.44 to 0.06), indicating a degree of attraction within 4 km of the wind farms. However, AAI values varied with distance from wind farm boundaries, with a degree of avoidance displayed between 3 and 4 km, which weakened as distance bands approach wind farm boundaries. Meso-scale avoidance/attraction was assessed with regard to the nearest individual turbine, and flight height relative to the rotor height range (RHR) of the nearest turbine. We found attraction increased below the RHR at distances L. fuscus avoidance/attraction behaviour to established wind farms, and so inform assessments of collision impacts.

Capsule: Migration studies of tagged Eurasian Bitterns Botaurus stellaris provide information on the behaviour of this secretive species in relation to weather conditions.Aims: To study if cold spells trigger southward migration in resident Eurasian Bitterns. To describe migratory behaviour including flight routes, altitudes, flight direction in relation to wind speed and direction, and general characteristics of stopping sites.Methods: Six adult Eurasian Bitterns from Dutch breeding areas were followed for two to five years using ARGOS-PTT/GPS transmitters or GPS trackers.Results: Four individuals remained at the breeding sites in winter and did not migrate in response to cold spells. Two individuals covered distances of 300 and 1600 km between stopping sites. They migrated predominantly at night, but over the Sahara they extended flights into daylight hours. Depending on wind assistance, flight speeds (groundspeed) varied between 3.6 and 26 ms−1. Flight altitude varied from just above sea level when facing headwinds, to almost 2000 m above sea level under tail wind conditions. Repeatedly tracked individuals showed substantial variation in routes and stopping sites between successive migrations. These flight patterns appeared influenced by the speed and direction of the winds encountered en route.Conclusions: Eurasian Bitterns were either migratory or resident and the latter individuals did not perform facultative movements at the onset of cold spells. The flight speed, flight altitudes, and routes of migrating birds were influenced by wind conditions. This likely explains the variable use of stopping sites between years.

Context: Carnaby's (Calyptorhychus latirostris), Baudin's (Calyptorhynchus baudinii) and forest red-tailed black cockatoos (Calyptorhynchus banksii naso) are threatened parrot species endemic to south-western Australia. Behavioural monitoring has previously involved direct observation, which has proven challenging because of their cryptic nature, the type of habitat they move through and their speed of movement. The development of a model to accurately classify behaviour from tri-axial accelerometer data will provide greater insight into black cockatoo behaviour and ecology.Aims: To develop an automated classifier model to classify accelerometer data from released black cockatoos to determine behaviour and activity budgets for three species of black cockatoo.Methods: In the present study, we attached tri-axial accelerometers, housed in GPS tags, to four Carnaby's cockatoos, three forest red-tailed black cockatoos and two Baudin's cockatoos in captive care, undergoing rehabilitation for release back to the wild. Accelerometer data from these birds was coupled with 19 video files of the birds' behaviour when flying, feeding and resting, to develop an automated behaviour classifier. The classifier was then used to annotate accelerometer data from 15 birds released after successful rehabilitation and to calculate activity budgets for these birds post-release.Key results: We developed a classifier able to identify resting, flying and foraging behaviours from accelerometer data with 86% accuracy, as determined by the percentage of observed behaviours correctly identified by the classifier. The application of the classifier to accelerometer data from 15 released cockatoos enabled us to determine behaviours and activity budgets for all three species of black cockatoo. Black cockatoos spent most of their time at rest, followed by foraging with a short period of time flying. Conclusions: Application of the classifier to data from released birds gives researchers the ability to remotely identify patterns of behaviour and calculate activity budgets. Implications: Combining behaviour and activity budgets with location data provides useful insight into cockatoo movement, distribution, and habitat use. Such information is important for informing conservation efforts and addressing outstanding research objectives. Further studies including larger sample sizes of Baudin's and forest red-tailed black cockatoos and comparing behaviour and activity between birds in breeding and non-breeding areas are warranted.

Demographic rates such as recruitment and survival probability can vary considerably among populations of the same species due to variation in underlying environmental processes. If environmental processes are spatially correlated, nearby populations are expected to have more similar demographic rates than those further apart. Breeding populations and foraging ranges are spatially segregated in colonial seabirds, making them ideal for studying spatial patterns in demographic rates and their effects on local population dynamics. Here we explored variation in age-dependentsurvival probabilities across 14 colonies of Herring Gulls Larus argentatus breeding along the Dutch North Sea coast. We used long-term mark–recapture data of marked fledglings to estimate survival, and estimated spatial autocorrelation of survival probabilities. We assessed whether survival until recruitment age or until 10 years old (close to their expected lifespan) explained variation in population trajectories of each colony. Juvenile and adult survival showed a strong, but different, north-to-south gradient in survival probability, with lower juvenile but higher adult survival in northern colonies than southern colonies, whereas the spatial pattern of immature survival was less distinct. Neither recruitment nor the proportion of 10-year-old adults alive predicted whether a colony collapsed, declined, remained stable or increased. The distinct spatial pattern in survival suggests variation in regional food availability, which do not seem to drive local population dynamics. The absence of a link between survival and colony trajectories implies that connectivity between populations plays an important role affecting population dynamics.

In recent years, many goose populations have increased substantially, potentially negatively affecting their natural environment and leading to conflict with farmers. To reduce farmer-goose conflict different management approaches are possible: compensation payments, scaring geese from certain areas to concentrate them in accommodation areas, or, when legally allowed, active population reduction. However, to effectively and ethically implement such practices, we need to understand how goose grazing affects agricultural yields and how management can influence this. This thesis looks at the effect of the timing and intensity of grazing on agricultural grassland through literature research, analysis of GPS-data and existing data on goose numbers and agricultural damages, and an experimental exclosure study. Furthermore, a simulation study is described, evaluating the potential cost-effectiveness of management through scaring and accommodation. We find that the effect of grazing on yield increases with grazing pressure, but at a decreasing rate. Temporal factors of grazing also play an important role in the effect of grazing on grassland yields. Grazing can change the growth rate of grass, delaying the start of the growing season and allowing yield losses to increase even after grazing ends. The effect of grazing differs between species, which has consequences for goose management. Scaring activities may have negative effects on goose survival and could result in higher economic costs associated with goose grazing. To be effective, the timing within the season and the required scaring intensity need to be carefully considered. Furthermore, adequate alternative habitat, suitable for multiple species, should be available.

All organisms grow in size throughout their life. Some species display a largely constant growth curve, while the growth curve of other species is largely plastic and therefore strongly depends on environmental factors such as the resource availability. This thesis explores how the level of growth curve plasticity affects the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a population. On the individual level, growth curve plasticity is tightly intertwined with the energy allocation schemes of an individual and the energetic trade-offs between growth, reproduction and maintenance. This is modeled using a simple dynamic energy budget model. Fluctuations in the environment accumulate in the size of individuals if growth is largely plastic. As a consequence, the level of growth curve plasticity strongly influences the size-structure of a population. This size-structure can therefore contain valuable information about the environmental limitations experienced by a population. The first part of this thesis explores how this information can be deduced from size measurements of individuals from natural populations such as North Sea fish stocks. The second part of this thesis uses size-structured models to show that the dynamics of a population is driven by limitations in either growth or reproduction. These two regimes show differences in the population structure, the occurrence and type of population dynamic cycles, the effects of harvesting and optimal fishing strategies. Overall, this thesis shows that the level of growth curve plasticity should be considered when exploring the dynamics of structured populations on any level of biological organization.

Granivorous rodents have been traditionally regarded as antagonistic seed predators. Agoutis (Dasyprocta spp.), however, have also been recognized as mutualistic dispersers of plants because of their role as scatter-hoarders of seeds, especially for large-seeded species. A closer look shows that such definitions are too simplistic for these Neotropical animals because agoutis can influence plant communities not only through seed dispersal of large seeds but also through predation of small seeds and seedlings, evidencing their dual role. Herein, we summarize the literature on plant–agouti interactions, decompose agouti seed dispersal into its quantitative and qualitative components, and discuss how environmental factors and plant traits determine whether these interactions result in mutualisms or antagonisms. We also look at the role of agoutis in a community context, assessing their effectiveness as substitutes for extinct megafaunal frugivores and comparing their ecological functions to those of other extant dispersers of large seeds. We also discuss how our conclusions can be extended to the single other genus in the Dasyproctidae family (Myoprocta). Finally, we examine agoutis’ contribution to carbon stocks and summarize current conservation threats and efforts. We recorded 164 interactions between agoutis and plants, which were widespread across the plant phylogeny, confirming that agoutis are generalist frugivores. Seed mass was a main factor determining seed hoarding probability of plant species and agoutis were found to disperse larger seeds than other large-bodied frugivores. Agoutis positively contributed to carbon storage by preying upon seeds of plants with lower carbon biomass and by dispersing species with higher biomass. This synthesis of plant–agouti interactions shows that ecological services provided by agoutis to plant populations and communities go beyond seed dispersal and predation, and we identify still unanswered questions. We hope to emphasise the importance of agoutis in Neotropical forests.

1.Aircraft collisions with birds span the entire history of human aviation, including fatal collisions during some of the first powered human flights. Much effort has been expended to reduce such collisions, but increased knowledge about bird movements and species occurrence could dramatically improve decision support and proactive measures to reduce them. Migratory movements of birds pose a unique, often overlooked, threat to aviation that is particularly difficult for individual airports to monitor and predict the occurrence of birds vary extensively in space and time at the local scales of airport responses. 2. We use two publicly available datasets, radar data from the US NEXRAD network characterizing migration movements and eBird data collected by citizen scientists to map bird movements and species composition with low human effort expenditures but high temporal and spatial resolution relative to other large-scale bird survey methods. As a test case, we compare results from weather radar distributions and eBird species composition with detailed bird strike records from three major New York airports. 3. We show that weather radar-based estimates of migration intensity can accurately predict the probability of bird strikes, with 80% of the variation in bird strikes across the year explained by the average amount of migratory movements captured on weather radar. We also show that eBird-based estimates of species occurrence can, using species’ body mass and flocking propensity, accurately predict when most damaging strikes occur.4. Synthesis and applications. By better understanding when and where different bird species occur, airports across the world can predict seasonal periods of collision risks with greater temporal and spatial resolution; such predictions include potential to predict when the most severe and damaging strikes may occur. Our results highlight the power of federating datasets with bird movement and distribution data for developing better and more taxonomically and ecologically tuned models of likelihood of strikes occurring and severity of strikes.

1. In recent decades, conflict between geese and agriculture has increased. Management practices to limit this conflict include concentrating geese in protected areas, derogation shooting or population reduction. To justify such management, we need to understand their effects on goose-related damages, which requires an understanding of how yield loss is influenced by goose abundance and species interactions.2. We combined data from monthly goose counts and GPS-tracked geese to estimate grazing pressures by barnacle, white-fronted and greylag geese on agricultural grassland in Fryslân, the Netherlands. Using linear mixed models, we related this to damages assessed by professional inspectors.3. Our results show a positive nonlinear relationship between yield loss and barnacle goose grazing pressure, where assessed damage increases with a decelerating rate as grazing pressure increases. For white-fronted geese, we find a negative relationship, while for greylag geese both positive and negative relationships occur. For each species, the relationship is influenced by the abundance of the other two.4. For barnacle geese, the relationship can be explained by selection of fields offering the best balance between food intake and energy expenditure, and by grass regrowth, with highest grazing pressures occurring over a longer time period. The results for the other species are likely due to spatial and temporal differences in foraging preferences compared to barnacle geese, where larger species avoid areas with highest damages.5. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that decreasing herbivore abundance may not translate directly to decreased yield loss, and management tools such as population reduction or derogation shooting should be used with care. Management aimed at concentrating geese in refuges could help to alleviate farmer–goose conflict, although further studies are required to determine if it would lead to damage reduction. We also find that not all species contribute equally to agricultural damage; care should be taken to ensure wildlife management targets the right species. published

The redistribution of biological (transpiration) and non-biological (interception loss, soil evaporation) fluxes of terrestrial evaporation via atmospheric circulation and precipitation is an important Earth system process. In vegetated ecosystems, transpiration dominates terrestrial evaporation and is thought to be crucial for regional moisture recycling and ecosystem functioning. However, the spatial and temporal variability in the dependency of precipitation on transpiration remains understudied, particularly in sparsely sampled regions like Africa. Here, we investigate how biological and non-biological sources of evaporation in Africa contribute to rainfall over the major watersheds in the continent. Our study is based on simulated atmospheric moisture trajectories derived from the Lagrangian model FLEXPART, driven by 1 degrees resolution reanalysis data over 1981-2016. Using daily satellite-based fractions of transpiration over terrestrial evaporation, we isolate the contribution of vegetation to monthly rainfall. Furthermore, we highlight two watersheds (Congo and Senegal) for which we explore intra- and interannual variability of different precipitation sources, and where we find contrasting patterns of vegetation-sourced precipitation within and between years. Overall, our results show that almost 50% of the annual rainfall in Africa originates from transpiration, although the variability between watersheds is large (5%-68%). We conclude that, considering the current and projected patterns of land use change in Africa, a better understanding of the implications for continental-scale water availability is needed.

Motivation: Historical changes in sea level caused shifting coastlines that affected the distribution and evolution of marine and terrestrial biota. At the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 26 ka, sea levels were >130 m lower than at present, resulting in seaward-shifted coastlines and shallow shelf seas, with emerging land bridges leading to the isolation of marine biota and the connection of land-bridge islands to the continents. At the end of the last ice age, sea levels started to rise at unprecedented rates, leading to coastal retreat, drowning of land bridges and contraction of island areas. Although a growing number of studies take historical coastline dynamics into consideration, they are mostly based on past global sea-level stands and present-day water depths and neglect the influence of global geophysical changes on historical coastline positions. Here, we present a novel geophysically corrected global historical coastline position raster for the period from 26 ka to the present. This coastline raster allows, for the first time, calculation of global and regional coastline retreat rates and land loss rates. Additionally, we produced, per time step, 53 shelf sea rasters to present shelf sea positions and to calculate the shelf sea expansion rates. These metrics are essential to assess the role of isolation and connectivity in shaping marine and insular biodiversity patterns and evolutionary signatures within species and species assemblages.Main types of variables contained: The coastline age raster contains cells with ages in thousands of years before present (bp), representing the time since the coastline was positioned in the raster cells, for the period between 26 ka and the present. A total of 53 shelf sea rasters (sea levels Spatial location and grain: The coastline age raster and shelf sea rasters have a global representation. The spatial resolution is scaled to 120 arcsec (0.333° × 0.333°), implying cells of c. 3,704 m around the equator, 3,207 m around the tropics (±30°) and 1,853 m in the temperate zone (±60°).Time period and temporal resolution: The coastline age raster shows the age of coastline positions since the onset of the LGM 26 ka, with time steps of 0.5 kyr. The 53 shelf sea rasters show, for each time step of 0.5 kyr, the position of the shelf seas (seas shallower than 140 m) and the extent of land.Level of measurement: Both the coastline age raster and the 53 shelf sea rasters are provided as TIFF files with spatial reference system WGS84 (SRID 4326). The values of the coastline age raster per grid cell correspond to the most recent coastline position (in steps of 0.5 kyr). Values range from 0 (0 ka, i.e., present day) to 260 (26 ka) in bins of 5 (0.5 kyr). A value of “no data” is ascribed to pixels that have remained below sea level since 26 ka.Software format: All data processing was done using the R programming language.

In this paper I examine the relation between Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates, abatement cost analyses, and individual climate duties. I first highlight the stakes that SCC and abatement cost estimates potentially have for the content of individual duties to either pay the full or fair cost of their carbon emissions, or offset the volume of their emissions. I survey four methodological options (a minimalist approach, a precautionary approach, an averaging approach, and what I call a ‘sufficiency-bounded’ precautionary approach) for conceptualizing the terrain of individual duties in light of SCC and abatement cost estimates that are both contentious and evolving.

The third Dutch national airborne laser scanning flight campaign (AHN3, Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland) conducted between 2014 and 2019 during the leaf-off season (October–April) across the whole Netherlands provides a free and open-access, country-wide dataset with ∼700 billion points and a point density of ∼10(–20) points/m2. The AHN3 point cloud was obtained with Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) technology and contains for each point the x, y, z coordinates and additional characteristics (e.g. return number, intensity value, scan angle rank and GPS time). Moreover, the point cloud has been pre-processed by ‘Rijkswaterstraat’ (the executive agency of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management), comes with a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and a Digital Surface Model (DSM), and is delivered with a pre-classification of each point into one of six classes (0: Never Classified, 1: Unclassified, 2: Ground, 6: Building, 9: Water, 26: Reserved [bridges etc.]). However, no detailed information on vegetation structure is available from the AHN3 point cloud. We processed the AHN3 point cloud (∼16 TB uncompressed data volume) into 10 m resolution raster layers of ecosystem structure at a national extent, using a novel high-throughput workflow called ‘Laserfarm’ and a cluster of virtual machines with fast central processing units, high memory nodes and associated big data storage for managing the large amount of files. The raster layers (available as GeoTIFF files) capture 25 LiDAR metrics of vegetation structure, including ecosystem height (e.g. 95th percentiles of normalized z), ecosystem cover (e.g. pulse penetration ratio, canopy cover, and density of vegetation points within defined height layers), and ecosystem structural complexity (e.g. skewness and variability of vertical vegetation point distribution). The raster layers make use of the Dutch projected coordinate system (EPSG:28992 Amersfoort / RD New), are each ∼1 GB in size, and can be readily used by ecologists in a geographic information system (GIS) or analytical open-source software such as R and Python. Even though the class ‘1: Unclassified’ mainly includes vegetation points, other objects such as cars, fences, and boats can also be present in this class, introducing potential biases in the derived data products. We therefore validated the raster layers of ecosystem structure using >180,000 hand-labelled LiDAR points in 100 randomly selected sample plots (10 m × 10 m each) across the Netherlands. Besides vegetation, objects such as boats, fences, and cars were identified in the sampled plots. However, the misclassification rate of vegetation points (i.e. non-vegetation points that were assumed to be vegetation) was low (∼0.05) and the accuracy of the 25 LiDAR metrics derived from the AHN3 point cloud was high (∼90%). To minimize existing inaccuracies in this country-wide data product (e.g. ships on water bodies, chimneys on roofs, or cars on roads that might be incorrectly used as vegetation points), we provide an additional mask that captures water bodies, buildings and roads generated from the Dutch cadaster dataset. This newly generated country-wide ecosystem structure data product provides new opportunities for ecology and biodiversity science, e.g. for mapping the 3D vegetation structure of a variety of ecosystems or for modelling biodiversity, species distributions, abundance and ecological niches of animals and their habitats.

We describe six datasets that contain GPS and accelerometer data of 202 Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopusostralegus) spanning the period 2008-2021. Birds were equipped with GPS trackers in breeding and wintering areas in the Netherlands and Belgium. We used GPS trackers from the University of Amsterdam Bird Tracking System (UvA-BiTS) for several study purposes, including the study of space use during the breeding season, habitat use and foraging behaviour in the winter season, and impacts of human disturbance. To enable broader usage, all data have now been made open access. Combined, the datasets contain 6.0 million GPS positions, 164 million acceleration measurements and 7.0 million classified behaviour events (i.e., flying, walking, foraging, preening, and inactive). The datasets are deposited on the research repository Zenodo, but are also accessible on Movebank and as down-sampled occurrence datasets on the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS). ispartof: ZOOKEYS vol:1123 issue:1123 pages:31-45 ispartof: location:Bulgaria status: published

The Covid-19 pandemic has not affected the population evenly. This must be acknowledged when it comes to understanding the Covid-19 death toll and answering the question of how many life years have been lost. We use level of geriatric care to account for variation in remaining life expectancy among individuals that died during 2020. Based on a linkage of administrative registers, we estimate remaining life expectancy stratified by age, sex, and care status using an incidence-based multistate model and analyze the number of years of life lost (YLL) during 2020 in Sweden. Our results show that remaining life expectancy between individuals with and without care differs substantially. More than half of all Covid-19 deaths had a remaining life expectancy lower than 4 years. Yet, in a 1-year perspective, Covid-19 did not seem to replace other causes of death. Not considering the differences in remaining life expectancy in the affected populations overestimated YLL by 40% for women and 30% for men, or around 2 years per death. While the unadjusted YLL from Covid-19 amounted to an average of 7.5 years for women and 8.6 years for men, the corresponding YLL adjusted for care status were 5.4 and 6.6, respectively. The total number of YLL to Covid-19 in 2020 is comparable to YLL from ischemic heart disease in 2019 and 2020. Our results urge the use of subgroup specific mortality when counting the burden of Covid-19. YLL are considerably reduced when the varying susceptibility for death is considered, but even if most lifespans were cut in the last years of life, the YLL are still substantial.

Sensors, such as accelerometers, in tracking devices allow for detailed bio-logging to understand animal behaviour, even in remote places where direct observation is difficult. To study breeding in birds remotely, one needs to understand how to recognise a breeding event from tracking data, and ideally validate this by direct observation. We tagged 49 adult female pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) with transmitter neckbands in Finland in spring of 2018 and 2019, and in Svalbard in summer 2018, and validated inferences from tracking by field observations of nesting sites and family status in 2018–2020 (54 spring–summer tracks). We estimated nesting locations by taking the median coordinates of GPS-fixes at which the goose was motionless (overall dynamic body acceleration, ODBA n = 6). The start of nesting was defined as the first day on which the goose spent > 75% of time within 50 m of the nest, because nest site attendances steeply increased within one day to above this threshold. Nesting duration (number of consecutive days with > 75% nest site attendance) ranged between 3 and 44 days (n = 28), but was 30–34 days in confirmed successful nests (n = 9). The prolonged nesting of 39–44 days (n = 3) suggested incubation on unhatchable egg(s). Nest losses before hatching time occurred mostly in day 3–10 and 23–29 of nesting, periods with an increased frequency of nest site recesses. As alternative method, allowing for non-simultaneous GPS and accelerometer data, we show that nesting days were classified with 98.6% success by two general characteristics of breeding: low body motion (daily median ODBA) and low geographic mobility (daily SD of latitude). Median coordinates on nesting days approached real nest sites closely (within 0.8–3.6 m, n = 6). When considering only geographic mobility (allowing for GPS data only) nesting locations were similarly accurate, but some short nesting attempts were undetected and non-breeding tracks misclassified. We show that nesting attempts, as short as 3 days, and nesting success can be detected remotely with good precision using GPS-tracking and accelerometry. Our method may be generalised to other (precocial) bird species with similar incubation behaviour.

Peer reviewed: True, Acknowledgements: We would like to acknowledge Oscar Venter, Hugh Possingham, and Moreno Di Marco for discussions on this topic., Raptors are emblematic of the global biodiversity crisis because one out of five species are threatened with extinction and over half have declining populations due to human threats. Yet our understanding of where these “threats” impact raptor species is limited across terrestrial Earth. This is concerning because raptors, as apex predators, are critically positioned in ecological food webs, and their declining populations can undermine important ecosystem services ranging from pest control to disease regulation. Here, we map the distribution of 15 threats within the known ranges of 172 threatened and near threatened raptor species globally as declared by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. We analyze the proportion of each raptor range that is exposed to threats, identify global hotspots of impacted raptor richness, and investigate how human impacts on raptors vary based on several intrinsic (species traits) and extrinsic factors. We find that humans are potentially negatively affecting at least one threatened raptor species across three quarters of Earth’s terrestrial area (78%; 113 million km2). Our results also show that raptors have 66% of their range potentially impacted by threats on average (range 2.7–100%). Alarmingly, critically endangered species have 90% of their range impacted by threats on average. We also highlight 57 species (33%) of particular concern that have > 90% of their ranges potentially impacted. Without immediate conservation intervention, these 57 species, including the most heavily impacted Forest Owlet (Athene blewitti), the Madagascar Serpent-eagle (Eutriorchis astur), and the Rufous Fishing-owl (Scotopelia ussheri), will likely face extinction in the near future. Global “hotspots” of impacted raptor richness are ubiquitous, with core areas of threat in parts of the Sahel and East Africa where 92% of the assessed raptors are potentially impacted per grid cell (10 species on average), and in Northern India where nearly 100% of raptors are potentially impacted per grid cell (11 species). Additionally, “coolspots” of unimpacted richness that represent refuges from threats occur in Greenland and Canada, where 98 and 58% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell, respectively (nearly one species on average), Saharan Africa, where 21% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell (one species on average), and parts of the Amazon, where 12% of raptors are potentially unimpacted per grid cell (0.6 species on average). The results provide essential information to guide conservation planning and action for the world’s imperiled raptors.

Living organisms are exposed to a wide range of substances - internal and external - which act like reactive oxygen species (ROS). Oxidative damage accurs when the balance between ROS and antioxidant defenses is altered. Urbanization and parasite infection are both important sources of ROS with different harmful effects on wildlife health, but the potential synergies between both factors are poorly known. Here, we analyse the oxidative stress of wild juvenile male house sparrows (Passer domesticus) along an urbanization gradient in relation to the infection status by three common blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) and bird body condition. We analysed samples from 688 birds captured at 45 localities from southern Spain grouped into triplets including an urban, a rural and a natural habitat, with 15 localities per habitat type. We measured i) thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) levels as indicator of the oxidative damage to lipids, and the activity of three antioxidant enzymes ii) glutathione peroxidase (GPx), iii) superoxide dismutase (SOD) and iv) glutathione reductase (GR) as indicators of bird's antioxidant capacity. Birds infected with Haemoproteus and urban birds showed significantly and marginally higher levels of TBARS than uninfected and rural birds, respectively. The relationship between TBARS and body condition is different regarding the infection status (significative) and habitat (marginally significant) being negative for Haemoproteus infected and urban birds but positive for uninfected and non-urban birds. The antioxidant activity was significantly lower in Plasmodium infected birds but marginally higher in Leucocytozoon infected birds than in uninfected ones. Individuals with higher body condition had higher GPx and SOD activity in relation to a lower GR activity. Overall, these results suggest that blood parasites infections and urbanization affect the oxidative status of wild birds and highlight the role of bird's body condition on the regulation of the oxidative stress status.

Many animals form long-term monogamous pair bonds, and the disruption of a pair bond (through either divorce or widowhood) can have significant consequences for individual vital rates (survival, breeding, and breeding success probabilities) and life-history outcomes (lifetime reproductive success [LRS], life expectancy). Here, we investigated the causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). State-of-the-art statistical and mathematical approaches were developed to estimate divorce and widowhood rates and their impacts on vital rates and life-history outcomes. In this population, females incur a higher mortality rate due to incidental fishery bycatch, so the population is male-skewed. Therefore, we first posited that males would show higher widowhood rates negatively correlated with fishing effort and females would have higher divorce rates because they have more mating opportunities. Furthermore, we expected that divorce could be an adaptive strategy, whereby individuals improved breeding success by breeding with a new partner of better quality. Finally, we posited that pair-bond disruptions could reduce survival and breeding probabilities owing to the cost of remating processes, with important consequences for life-history outcomes. As expected, we showed that males had higher widowhood rates than females and females had higher divorce rates in this male-skewed population. However, no correlation was found between fishing effort and male widowhood. Secondly, contrary to our expectation, we found that divorce was likely nonadaptive in this population. We propose that divorce in this population is caused by an intruder who outcompetes the original partner in line with the so-called forced divorce hypothesis. Furthermore, we found a 16.7% and 18.0% reduction in LRS only for divorced and widowed males, respectively, owing to missing breeding seasons after a pair-bond disruption. Finally, we found that divorced individuals were more likely to divorce again, but whether this is related to specific individual characteristics remains an important area of investigation.

Drought impact monitoring is of crucial importance in light of climate change. However, we lack an understanding of the concomitant responses of ecosystems to a variety of drought characteristics and the links between drought and ecosystem anomaly characteristics for a comprehensive set of vegetation types to provide needed information for water management. In response, this study presents a new framework that allows us to explore the relationship between drought and its impact on ecosystems in greater detail. Specifically, our framework focuses on estimating jointly the hydrological and ecosystem temporal evolution and anomalies around a drought event using four pairs of metrics: onset-onset, duration-duration, intensity-intensity, and severity-severity of drought and vegetation damage. Additionally, we incorporated an understandinga metric on vegetation vulnerability based on changes in damage severity along a gradient of increasing drought severity. Based on this framework, we evaluated drought vulnerability patterns of various vegetation types across the Netherlands and Belgium in 2018 at high spatiotemporal resolution. Our results reveal the a differential vulnerability of vegetation between ecosystems with increasing drought severity, which could aid future drought impact predictions. In particular, mosaic grasslands and tree/shrub croplands are highly sensitive to increasing drought severity. Individual characteristics (onset, duration, intensity and severity) of drought and vegetation damage behave differently in various vegetation types. For instance, broadleaved forests respond faster than other forests, while mixed forests suffer less damage than other types. The early warning threshold to drought for most vegetation types is around a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) value of -1. The characterization of a suite of drought response characteristics through our impact analysis framework can be used in a wide variety of regions to understand current and possible future responses to drought.

Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-25T11:12:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2021-05-01 Aim: Global changes will redistribute biodiversity, reshaping ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The decoupling in the distribution of plants and their mutualistic seed dispersers, for instance, may have overlooked eco-evolutionary effects. How animal-dispersed plants will respond to changes in the distribution of their seed dispersers remains largely an open question. Here, we forecast the consequences of climate change and frugivory interactions for the spatial distribution and seed size evolution of a Neotropical palm species. Location: Atlantic forests of South America. Time period: Present day, end of 21st century. Major taxa studied: Thirty-two species of frugivorous birds, and a palm (Euterpe edulis). Methods: Future patterns of animal–plant co-occurrence were derived from ecological niche models, climate forecasts, projections of future forest loss, and seed dispersal simulations. We further explored the evolutionary effect of the spatial reorganization of interactions by modelling palm seed sizes as a function of changes in the distribution of frugivore traits. Results: Our models indicate that future climate change and deforestation may reduce the palm’s suitable distribution by 20%–50%. However, our simulations suggest that 66% of all remaining future suitable distribution (76,200 km2) would still be inaccessible to the palm without the active dispersal of seeds by frugivores. In addition, novel frugivore communities are projected to have smaller mean body mass and gape size (−23% and −10%, respectively), due to the loss of large frugivores, which may translate into a 6%–17% reduction of seed sizes across the palm’s remaining distribution. Main conclusions: Our projections indicate that frugivore seed dispersal may be critical to allow occupancy of future habitat by animal-dispersed plants. However, loss of large frugivores may affect trait selection regimes, creating hotspots of plant evolution towards smaller seeds. We argue that such complex dynamics emerging from species-specific responses to global change may reshape the distribution and evolution of several interacting partners worldwide. Departmento de Biologia Animal Instituto de Biologia Universidade Estadual de Campinas – UNICAMP Campinas Laboratório de Estrutura e Dinâmica da Diversidade (LEDDiv) Instituto de Biologia Universidade Estadual de Campinas – UNICAMP Campinas Department of Theoretical and Computational Ecology Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) University of Amsterdam (UvA) Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Department of Biology University of Miami, 231 Cox Science Center Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki P.O. Box 64 Departamento de Biodiversidade Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)

As environmental conditions fluctuate across years, seasonal migrants must determine where and when to move without comprehensive knowledge of conditions beyond their current location. Animals can address this challenge by following cues in their local environment to vary behaviour in response to current conditions, or by moving based on learned or inherited experience of past conditions resulting in fixed behaviour across years.It is often claimed that long‐distance migrants are more fixed in their migratory behaviour because as distance between breeding and wintering areas increases, reliability of cues to predict distant and future conditions decreases. While supported by some population‐level studies, the influence of migration distance on behavioural variation is seldom examined on an individual level.Lesser black‐backed gulls Larus fuscus are generalist seabirds that use a diversity of migration strategies. Using high‐resolution multi‐year GPS tracking data from 82 individuals from eight colonies in Western Europe, we quantified inter‐ and intra‐individual variation in non‐breeding distributions, winter site fidelity, migration routes and timing of migration, with the objectives of determining how much variation lesser black‐backed gulls have in their migratory behaviour and examining whether variation changes with migration distance.We found that intra‐individual variation was significantly lower than variation between individuals for non‐breeding distributions, winter site fidelity, migration routes and timing of migration, resulting in consistent individual strategies for all behaviours examined. Yet, intra‐individual variation ranged widely among individuals (e.g. winter site overlap: 0–0.91 out of 1; migration timing: 0–192 days), and importantly, individual differences in variation were not related to migration distance.The apparent preference for maintaining a consistent strategy, present in even the shortest distance migrants, suggests that familiarity may be more advantageous than exactly tracking current environmental conditions. Yet, variation in behaviour across years was observed in many individuals and could be substantial. This suggests that individuals, irrespective of migration distance, have the capacity to adjust to current conditions within the broad confines of their individual strategies, and occasionally, even change their strategy., This study uses multi‐year high resolution GPS tracks of lesser black‐backed gulls to quantify variation in migration behaviour at the individual‐level and along broad range migration distances to demonstrate that long‐distance migrants are no more fixed in their migratory behaviours than short distance migrants, contrasting with findings from population‐level studies.

1. With the rapid growth of wind energy developments world-wide, it is critical that the negative impacts on wildlife are considered and mitigated. This includes minimising the number of large soaring raptors, which are killed when they collide with wind turbines.2. To reduce the likelihood of raptor collisions, turbines should be placed at locations which are least used by sensitive species. For resident or breeding species, this is often delineated crudely through the use of circular buffers centred on nest sites, which assume uniform habitat use around a nest site.3. Using GPS tracking data together with a digital elevation model we build and cross-validate a simple generalisable model, to classify the spatial likelihood of wind turbine collisions for resident adult Verreaux's eagles in any landscape where there are known nests. We apply our methods to operational developments in South Africa to validate the model and demonstrate its ability in predicting actual collision mortalities.4. Our collision risk potential (CRP) model included the variables distance to nest, distance to conspecific nest, slope, distance to slope and elevation. Using our model, rather than a circular buffer, resulted in c. 4%–5% improvement in eagle protection while excluding development from the same amount (but not shape) of area. For an equal level of eagle protection, our model can make c. 20%–21% more area available for wind energy development compared to a circular buffer.5. Exploring collisions at operational wind farms in South Africa we show that our CRP model correctly predicted 79% of known collisions, while circular buffers (5.2 km radius) only captured 50% of collisions.6. Synthesis and applications. We show that by using predictive models to account for habitat use instead of simple buffers around a nest, a greater area of land can be made available for wind energy development without increased mortality risk to raptors. Our predictive model can be used to provide robust guidance on wind turbine placement in South Africa in a way which minimises the conflict between a vulnerable raptor species and the development of renewable energy.

Woody encroachment can lead to a switch from open savannas to dense woodlands or forests. This has implications for both the composition of ecological communities and the provision of ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and grazing capacity. The patterns and underlying drivers responsible for woody encroachment are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the underlying determinants of bush clump formation (a form of encroachment) in a South African savanna and explore whether bush clump succession is driven by deterministic (i.e., predictable changes in species composition) or stochastic (i.e., random) processes. Specifically, we test (1) whether the similarity in species composition of saplings and trees differs among small and large clumps, (2) which environmental factors are driving succession, and (3) whether forest specialization of tree and sapling species within bush clumps increases with the successional gradient. Similarity in species composition between saplings in small clumps and trees in large clumps was higher than similarity between trees in small clumps and trees in large clumps. Furthermore, temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, and light intensity were related to changes in species composition along the successional gradient. As expected, forest specialization of trees increased with increasing clump area indicating that late-successional bush clumps have more forest-type species. The directional changes of species found along the successional gradient suggest a deterministic process of succession driven by changes in local environmental conditions during clump formation.

Mapping 3D vegetation structure in wetlands is important for conservation and monitoring. Openly accessible country‐wide Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data—using light detection and ranging (lidar) technology—are increasingly becoming available and allow us to quantify 3D vegetation structures at fine resolution and across broad spatial extents. Here, we develop a new, open‐source workflow for classifying wetland‐related land cover types and habitats using fine‐scale lidar metrics derived from country‐wide ALS data. We developed a case study in the Netherlands with a workflow consisting of four routines: (1) pre‐processing of ALS data, (2) calculation of lidar metrics (i.e. 31 features representing cover, 3D shape, vertical variability, horizontal variability and height of vegetation as well as microtopography), (3) assessing feature importance of lidar metrics for classifying wetland habitats, and (4) applying a Random Forest algorithm for mapping and prediction. We used an expert‐based vegetation map for annotation and generated 100, 500 and 1000 annotation points for each class. Using a three‐level hierarchical approach, we differentiated at level 1 planar surfaces (e.g. roads and agricultural fields) from wetland vegetation with 82% mean overall accuracy, using predominantly height and horizontal variability metrics. At level 2, we classified wetland vegetation into four land cover types (forest, grassland, reedbeds, shrubs) with 71% mean overall accuracy, using lidar metrics related to vegetation height and horizontal and vertical variability. At level 3, we differentiated two types of land reed as well as water reed with 78% mean overall accuracy, using predominantly vertical variability metrics. Our results demonstrate that lidar metrics (related to vegetation height, cover, vertical and horizontal variability) derived from country‐wide ALS data can differentiate land cover types and habitats within wetlands at high resolution. Given appropriate annotation data, our workflow can be up‐scaled to a country‐wide extent to allow the comprehensive mapping and monitoring of wetlands at national scales.

Individual variation in disturbance vulnerability (i.e. the likelihood that disturbance negatively affects an individual's fitness) can affect how disturbance impacts animal populations, as even at low disturbance levels some individuals could be severely affected and die. Individual variation in vulnerability can arise due to different responses to disturbance. We propose a new hypothesis that even when individuals respond similarly to disturbance, time-limited individuals are more at risk that their condition deteriorates since they have limited ability to extend their foraging time to compensate for disturbance. We investigate this ‘time-limitation hypothesis' both empirically and mathematically by studying how individuals that differ in their average foraging time (presumably due to differences in foraging efficiency) are affected by disturbance. We used tracking data of 22 wintering Eurasian oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to compare time budgets between disturbed and undisturbed tidal periods. In three tidal periods with severe disturbance by transport airplanes, more than a third of the variation in additional flight time and foraging time loss was explained by individual differences. Inefficient individuals that foraged longer in undisturbed tidal periods experienced higher costs in disturbed tidal periods, since they lost more foraging time. We next used an analytical energy balance model to study how time-limited individuals differed in their maximum disturbance thresholds. Both our theoretical model and empirical study suggest that inefficient individuals in a time-limited environment may be unable to increase their foraging time to compensate for the effects of disturbance. Consequently, the magnitude of individual variation in time budgets strongly determines what proportion of the population is at risk that their condition deteriorates due to disturbance. Our hypothesis implies that, when assessing disturbance effects on a population, it is not only important to consider individual variation in disturbance responses, but also variation in time budgets that determine the consequences of disturbance.

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.S., and then applied simple yet plausible future stream temperature change scenarios. We then joined stream temperature predictions to 44,396 spatial observations and life-stage-specific phenology (timing) for 26 ecotypes (i.e., geographically distinct population groups expressing one of the four distinct seasonal migration patterns) of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a phenotypically diverse anadromous salmonid that is ecologically and economically important but declining throughout its range. Thermal stress, assessed for each life stage and ecotype based on federal criteria, was influenced by migration timing rather than latitude, elevation, or migration distance such that sympatric ecotypes often showed differential thermal exposure. Early-migration phenotypes were especially vulnerable due to prolonged residency in inland streams during the summer. We evaluated the thermal suitability of 31,699 stream km which are currently blocked by dams to explore reintroduction above dams as an option to mitigate the negative effects of our warmer stream temperature scenarios. Our results showed that negative impacts of stream temperature warming can be offset for almost all ecotypes if formerly occupied habitat above dams is made available. Our approach of combining spatial distribution and phenology data with spatially explicit and temporally explicit temperature predictions enables researchers to examine thermal exposure of migrating populations that use seasonally varying habitats.

Numerous organisms depend on the physical structure of their habitats, but incorporating such information into ecological niche analyses has been limited by the lack of adequate data over broad spatial extents. The increasing availability of high-resolution measurements from country-wide airborne laser scanning (ALS) surveys – a light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology – now provides unprecedented opportunities for characterizing habitat structure. Here, we use country-wide ALS data in combination with presence–absence observations of birds from a national monitoring scheme in the Netherlands to quantify niche filling, niche overlap and niche separation of three closely-related wetland birds (great reed warbler, Eurasian reed warbler and Savi's warbler). We developed a workflow to derive LiDAR metrics capturing different aspects of vertical and horizontal vegetation structure and used a principal component analysis (PCA), niche equivalency and niche similarity tests to analyse the fine-scale breeding habitat niches of these warbler species in the Netherlands. The widespread Eurasian reed warbler almost completely filled the available wetland habitat space (93%) whereas the two other species showed considerably less niche filling (64% and 74%, respectively). Substantial niche overlap occurred among all species, but each species occupied a distinct part of the habitat space. The great reed warbler mainly occurred in tall and vertically complex wetland vegetation and was absent in areas with large proportions of reedbeds. The Eurasian reed warbler occupied all parts of the wetland habitat space, whereas the Savi's warbler mainly occurred in large homogenous reedbeds with low vegetation height. Our results demonstrate that broad-scale ecological niche analyses can incorporate the fine-scale 3D habitat preference of species with unprecedented detail (e.g. 10 m resolution), and thus go much beyond quantifying the climate niche and 2D habitat information from land cover maps. This is important to identify habitat features and priorities for biodiversity conservation in wetlands and other habitats.

PurposeLow read rates are a general problem in library inventories. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that contribute to the success of library inventory by means of a radio-frequency identification (RFID) inventory taker. The factors investigated were tag position, tag orientation, book thickness, tag density (related to thickness of a sequence of books) and position on the shelf.Design/methodology/approachA total of 210 books were placed in eight random permutations on three fixed book shelves. For each configuration, the RFID tags were read forty times. The resulting data were analysed by means of a generalized linear model, relating the combined contribution of tag position, tag orientation, book thickness and position on the bookshelf to the read rate.FindingsThe tags positioned directly next to the spine were always read, but those near the opening of the book (far from the spine and inventory reader) were not always read. Considering only books with tags near the opening, tag orientation and position on the shelf appeared not to be related to the read rate, while book thickness, thickness over three books and spine tag density appeared to have a small positive contribution to the read rate.Practical implicationsLow read rates during a library inventory can be prevented by placing the tags near the book spine – the other book specific factors (listed in the previous paragraph) are of little influence. When not scanned during a first sweep, repeated scanning can increase the read rate with 0.15.Originality/valueThis paper is one of the first to analyse the influence of tag location and book specific factors on the read rate of RFID tags in library books. The experimental approach sets an example for future work.

High nitrogen (N) deposition levels, currently present in many industrial and agricultural regions of the world, can strongly affect the functioning of forest ecosystems. In a pine forest with strong N leaching, located in the Netherlands, we studied the long-term fate of a year-long NH4+ deposition cohort labeled with 15N. A high ambient and a low N deposition treatment had been established at the site by means of a roof and sprinklers. Resampling the N pools 19 years after labeling and 11 years after the last sampling, we found similar 15N deltas in needles, twigs and the LF1 organic soil layer of each treatment, indicating intensive N cycling among these pools. In the last 11 years, label recovery decreased in these labile pools, while recovery remained constant in wood and increased in bark. Together these aboveground vegetation pools retained less than 3% of the labeled N. In the organic layers, label recovery after 19 years decreased to 23% in both treatments, while in the mineral soil it increased from 4% to 13% (high N) and from 3% to 29% (low N treatment). Within the mineral soil of the high N treatment the labeled N was mainly found in fine roots, while in the low N treatment most N was incorporated in the two soil density fractions, shifting to the high density fraction with depth. This suggests a low capacity of the mineral soil at high N deposition to incorporate N. After the labeled N had been lost substantially in previous years, especially in the first, its presence remained constant in the last 11 years at 38% (high N) and 54% (low N treatment). Apparently, even in this strongly N leaching ecosystem, N once incorporated, was retained well and did not affect the input-output fluxes of the system.

1. Accurate predictions of the abundance of migrating birds are important to avoid aerial conflicts of birds, for example, with aviation or wind power installations.2. Here we develop a predictive model, using bird migration intensity extracted from operational weather data. We compare baseline phenological models to models incorporating both local and remote weather conditions using an ensemble approach. Single models are compared to ensemble models (average prediction of top 10 models). The models were evaluated by omitting single years from our 10-year dataset.3. In general, we find that wind conditions, in addition to seasonal and diurnal dynamics, are key for accurate predictions. The spring and fall migratory seasons differ, both with respect to the selected environmental variables and the contribution of the environmental model compared to the phenological model. In fall, the accumulation of migrants due to strong headwinds is an important predictor of migration.4. Because of the lower daily variation in migration intensity in spring, the phenological model performs better compared to fall. In fall, weather conditions contribute more to accurate predictions of migration intensity than in spring.5. Overall, the ensemble approach produces more accurate predictions outperforming specific environmental models. We therefore recommend that ensemble models be used in operational settings such as flight planning to reduce bird aircraft collisions during intense bird migration.

The Cretaceous–Palaeogene (K-Pg) extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs (66 Ma) led to a 25 million year gap of megaherbivores (>1000 kg) before the evolution of megaherbivorous mammals in the Late Eocene (40 Ma). The botanical consequences of this ‘Palaeocene megaherbivore gap’ (PMHG) remain poorly explored. We hypothesize that the absence of megaherbivores should result in changes in the diversification and trait evolution of associated plant lineages. We used phylogenetic time- and trait-dependent diversification models with palms (Arecaceae) and show that the PMHG was characterized by speciation slowdowns, decreased evolution of armature and increased evolution of megafaunal (≥4 cm) fruits. This suggests that the absence of browsing by megaherbivores during the PMHG may have led to a loss of defence traits, but the absence of megaherbivorous seed dispersers did not lead to a loss of megafaunal fruits. Instead, increases in PMHG fruit sizes may be explained by simultaneously rising temperatures, rainforest expansion, and the subsequent radiation of seed-dispersing birds and mammals. We show that the profound impact of the PMHG on plant diversification can be detected even with the overwriting of adaptations by the subsequent Late Eocene opening up of megaherbivore-associated ecological opportunities. Our study provides a quantitative, comparative framework to assess diversification and adaptation during one of the most enigmatic periods in angiosperm history.

Weather radar networks have great potential for continuous and long-term monitoring of aerial biodiversity of birds, bats, and insects. Biological data from weather radars can support ecological research, inform conservation policy development and implementation, and increase the public’s interest in natural phenomena such as migration. Weather radars are already used to study animal migration, quantify changes in populations, and reduce aerial conflicts between birds and aircraft. Yet efforts to establish a framework for the broad utilization of operational weather radar for biodiversity monitoring are at risk without suitable data policies and infrastructure in place. In Europe, communities of meteorologists and ecologists have made joint efforts toward sharing and standardizing continent-wide weather radar data. These efforts are now at risk as new meteorological data exchange policies render data useless for biodiversity monitoring. In several other parts of the world, weather radar data are not even available for ecological research. We urge policy makers, funding agencies, and meteorological organizations across the world to recognize the full potential of weather radar data. We propose several actions that would ensure the continued capability of weather radar networks worldwide to act as powerful tools for biodiversity monitoring and research.

Frugivory, that is feeding on fruits, pulp or seeds by animals, is usually considered a mutualism when interactions involve seed dispersal, and an antagonism when it results in the predation and destruction of seeds. Nevertheless, most frugivory interactions involve both benefits and disadvantages for plants, and the net interaction outcomes thus tend to vary along a continuum from mutualism to antagonism. Quantifying outcome variation is challenging and the ecological contribution of frugivorous animals to plant demography thus remains little explored. This is particularly true for interactions in which animals do not ingest entire fruits, that is in seed-eating and pulp-eating. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of Neotropical palm–frugivore interactions, with a focus on how frugivore consumption behaviour (i.e. digestive processing, fruit-handling ability and caching behaviour) and feeding types (fruit-eating, pulp-eating and seed-eating) influence interaction outcomes at different demographic stages of palms. We compiled a total of 1043 species-level palm–frugivore interaction records that explicitly captured information on which parts of palm fruits are eaten by animals. These records showed consumption of fruits of 106 Neotropical palm species by 273 vertebrate species, especially birds (50%) and mammals (45%), but also fish (3%) and reptiles (2%). Fruit-eating involved all four taxonomic vertebrate classes whereas seed-eating and pulp-eating were only recorded among birds and mammals. Most fruit-eating interactions (77%) resulted in positive interaction outcomes for plants (e.g. gut-passed seeds are viable or seeds are successfully dispersed), regardless of the digestive processing type of vertebrate consumers (seed defecation versus regurgitation). The majority of pulp-eating interactions (91%) also resulted in positive interaction outcomes, for instance via pulp removal that promoted seed germination or via dispersal of intact palm seeds by external transport, especially if animals have a good fruit-handling ability (e.g. primates, and some parrots). By contrast, seed-eating interactions mostly resulted in dual outcomes (60%), where interactions had both negative effects on seed survival and positive outcomes through seed caching and external (non-digestive) seed dispersal. A detailed synthesis of available field studies with qualitative and quantitative information provided evidence that 12 families and 27 species of mammals and birds are predominantly on the mutualistic side of the continuum whereas five mammalian families, six mammal and one reptile species are on the antagonistic side. The synthesis also revealed that most species can act as partial mutualists, even if they are typically considered antagonists. Our review demonstrates how different consumption behaviours and feeding types of vertebrate fruit consumers can influence seed dispersal and regeneration of palms, and thus ultimately affect the structure and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Variation in feeding types of animal consumers will influence ecosystem dynamics via effects on plant population dynamics and differences in long-distance seed dispersal, and may subsequently affect ecosystem functions such as carbon storage. The quantification of intra- and inter-specific variation in outcomes of plant–frugivore interactions – and their positive and negative effects on the seed-to-seedling transition of animal-dispersed plants – should be a key research focus to understand better the mutualism–antagonism continuum and its importance for ecosystem dynamics.

This study was funded by project P11-RNM-7038 from the Junta de Andalucia and projects PGC2018-095704-B-I00 and PID2020-118205GB-I00 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and European (FEDER) funds. CI was funded by the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development, FORMAS, no. 2015-00526. JJP was funded by the Fundacion Tatiana Perez Guzman el Bueno, MF is supported by the European Union'sHorizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie (grant agreement No 844285, 'EpiEcoMod'). Alberto Pastoriza, Manuel Vazquez, Manuel Lobon, Isabel Martin, Laura Gomez, Johan Kjellberg-Jensen and Hong-Lei Wang helped with the field and laboratory work. We are grateful to all the landowners and to Consejeria de Medio Ambiente for allowing us to work on their properties., Anthropogenic activities such as intensification of agriculture, animal husbandry and expansion of cities can negatively impact wildlife through its influence on the availability of high-quality food resources and pathogen transmission. The house sparrow (Passer domesticus), an urban exploiter, is undergoing a population decline. Nutritional constrains and infectious diseases has been highlighted as potential causes. Fatty acids (FAs) play an important role in modulating certain immune responses needed to combat parasite infections. FAs are highly influenced by dietary availability and have been shown to vary between urban and rural birds. Habitat anthropization also affects avianmalaria epidemiology but little attention has been given to the relationship between blood parasite infection, host FAs composition and anthropization. Here, we analysed 165 juvenile birds either infected by Plasmodium or uninfected, captured at 15 localities grouped in triplets containing urban, rural and natural habitats. The total level of FAs was higher in birds fromurban than from rural habitats, suggesting a greater availability of fat-rich foods sources. Furthermore, Plasmodium infected birds had higher relative levels of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) but lower of ω-6 PUFAs than uninfected birds. In concordance, the ω-6/ω-3 ratiowas also lower in infected than in uninfected birds, but only from natural habitats, likely driven by the slightly higher ω-3 PUFAs in infected birds from natural habitats. Birds from anthropized environments may metabolize the ω-3 PUFAs to promote anti-inflammatory responses against stressors, which would result in lower ω-3 affecting their response against Plasmodium. Alternatively, lower ω-6 PUFAs may influence birds susceptibility to infection due to a weaker pro-inflammatory response. These descriptive results do not allow us to identify the causality of these associations but highlight the need to further investigate the relevance of FAs for birds to fight infectious diseases in habitats with different degree of urbanization., Junta de Andalucia P11-RNM-7038, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and European (FEDER) funds PGC2018-095704-B-I00 PID2020-118205GB-I00, Swedish Research Council Formas 2015-00526, Fundacion Tatiana Perez Guzman el Bueno, European Commission 844285

1. How environmental conditions affect the life history of individuals and how these effects shape population and community dynamics on ecological and evolutionary time-scales is a central question in many eco-evolutionary studies.2. Physiologically structured population models (PSPMs) allow to address this question theoretically as PSPMs are built on a function-based life-history model, which explicitly describes how life history depends on individual traits and environmental factors. PSPMs furthermore explicitly account for population feedback on these environmental factors, which translates into density-dependent effects on life history.3. PSPManalysis is an R package that allows to simulate ecological dynamics of PSPMs, compute their ecological steady states as a function of model parameters and detect bifurcation points in the computed curves where dynamics change drastically. It furthermore allows for analysing evolutionary dynamics and evolutionary singular states of PSPMs based on Adaptive Dynamics theory. The package only requires a relatively straightforward specification of the life-history functions as input.4. Compared to dynamic simulations alone, PSPManalysis uses methods from bifurcation analysis to gain a more complete and comprehensive understanding of model behaviour which is much less dependent on particular parameter values or initial model conditions. Given the central role of the individual life history in many studies, there is substantial scope for using PSPManalysis in fields as diverse as ecology, ecotoxicology, conservation biology and evolutionary biology.