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1. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Author

Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del, Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoǧlu, U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., Vyhmeister, E., Behrens, J., Løvholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Sørensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del, Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bureš, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., González, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kânoǧlu, U., Macías, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., and Vyhmeister, E.

Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister.

Published
2021

5. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Author

Davies G., Griffin J., Lovholt F., Glimsdal S., Harbitz C., Thio H. K., Lorito S., Basili R., Selva J., Geist E., Baptista M. A., Davies, G., Griffin, J., Lovholt, F., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C., Thio, H. K., Lorito, S., Basili, R., Selva, J., Geist, E., and Baptista, M. A.

Abstract

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Published
2018

9. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Author

Horspool, N., primary, Pranantyo, I., additional, Griffin, J., additional, Latief, H., additional, Natawidjaja, D. H., additional, Kongko, W., additional, Cipta, A., additional, Bustaman, B., additional, Anugrah, S. D., additional, and Thio, H. K., additional

Published
2014
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10. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Author

Horspool, N., primary, Pranantyo, I., additional, Griffin, J., additional, Latief, H., additional, Natawidjaja, D. H., additional, Kongko, W., additional, Cipta, A., additional, Bustaman, B., additional, Anugrah, S. D., additional, and Thio, H. K., additional

Published
2014
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12. TheSAFRRTsunami Scenario

Author

Porter, K., primary, Jones, L., additional, Ross, S., additional, Borrero, J., additional, Bwarie, J., additional, Dykstra, D., additional, Geist, E.L., additional, Johnson, L., additional, Kirby, S., additional, Long, K., additional, Lynett, P., additional, Miller, K., additional, Mortensen, C., additional, Perry, S., additional, Plumlee, G., additional, Real, C., additional, Ritchie, L., additional, Scawthorn, C., additional, Thio, H. K., additional, Wein, A., additional, Whitmore, P., additional, Wilson, R., additional, and Wood, N., additional

Published
2013
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14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario.

Author

Porter, K., Jones, L., Ross, S., Borrero, J., Bwarie, J., Dykstra, D., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L., Kirby, S., Long, K., Lynett, P., Miller, K., Mortensen, C., Perry, S., Plumlee, G., Real, C., Ritchie, L., Scawthorn, C., Thio, H. K., and Wein, A.

Published
2013
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15. Seismicity

Author

Saikia, Chandan K., primary, Thio, H. K., additional, Ichinose, Gene A., additional, Bodin, P., additional, Polet, J., additional, and Somerville, Paul G., additional

Published
2002
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16. Path Calibration, Source Estimation and Regional Discrimination for the Middle East and Western Mediterranean.

Author

WOODWARD-CLYDE FEDERAL SERVICES PASADENA CA, Saikia, C. K., Thio, H. K., Woods, B. B., Song, X., Zhu, L., WOODWARD-CLYDE FEDERAL SERVICES PASADENA CA, Saikia, C. K., Thio, H. K., Woods, B. B., Song, X., and Zhu, L.

Abstract

In our efforts to calibrate regional crustal paths and upper-mantle teleseismic effects for the Middle East and North Africa we have extended the coverage to include the Western Mediterranean and North Africa, a region of sharp lateral variations in the crustal waveguide. Such calibration is for use in regional magnitude corrections and path attenuation relations. We have established a regionalized zonation of surface wave paths at longer periods (T> 15 secs) and presently have a first-order working model for Pnl propagation across old oceanic paths. In the area previously calibrated -- centered about the Pamir-Hindu Kush region, and covered by the IMS b-stations NIL and AAK, we have analyzed the performance of our source location and characterization methods to smaller (4 > ML> 3) earthquakes using data from co-located or nearby temporary arrays. We establish from this analysis that two broadband three-component stations can provide useful location and depth estimates for small regional events with few (1 or 2), if any, teleseismic observations. A serendipitous result of this work is a depth estimator based on a signal's S-wave complexity. This technique is also complimentary to the short- period:long-period (Esp-pz:Eip-3) discriminant., Original contains color plates: All DTIC/NTIS reproductions will be in black and white.

Published
1996

17. Path Calibration, Source Estimation and Regional Discrimination for the Middle East: Application to the Hindu-Kush Region.

Author

WOODWARD-CLYDE FEDERAL SERVICES PASADENA CA, Saikia, C. K., Woods, B. B., Zhu, L., Thio, H. K., Helmberger, D. V., WOODWARD-CLYDE FEDERAL SERVICES PASADENA CA, Saikia, C. K., Woods, B. B., Zhu, L., Thio, H. K., and Helmberger, D. V.

Abstract

We have analyzed observations of earthquakes occurring in the Hindu-Kush region to establish a basis for location and discrimination using the new broadband station NIL, a GSETT-3 beta station, which is located near the site of the GSETT-3 alpha array PKAR in Pakistan. Preliminary analyses of the regional data at NIL in terms of energy ratios (the integrated energy in the short-period Pn1 wavetrain, divided by the intermediate-period, three component, surface wave integrated energy) produces plots not unlike those produced by a similar analysis of TERRAscope data (for the southwestern U.S.). NTS explosions consistently plot higher than regional earthquakes in the latter population, Woods and Helmberger (1996). In the NIL earthquake population, there are observed events with high ratios which look like explosions but appear to be deep events where the surface waves have become weak relative to the body waves. The identical problem occurs for the mb:Ms discriminants for events in this region. Thus, the ability to determine the source depth becomes crucial in this region as a complimentary method to infer the source type. To calibrate the regional paths we selected 5 crustal and 5 sub-crustal events (5.5

Published
1996

22. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Author

Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Department of Mathematics/CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), University of Naples Federico II, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ERN Internacional, Mexico City, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Ingénieur Appliquées à la Mécanique et au génie Electrique (SIAME), Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA), IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de La Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Department Geodesy and Remote Sensing, University College of London [London] (UCL), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), GEM Foundation, Pavia, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna (UNIBO), University of Hradec Králové, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Cyprus University of Technology, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, University College Dublin [Dublin] (UCD), Universidad de Málaga [Málaga] = University of Málaga [Málaga], Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI), Masala, University of Helsinki, Institute of Physics and Technology, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Department of Engineering Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Athens, California State Polytechnic University [Pomona] (CAL POLY POMONA), Geological Survey of Israel (GSI), Geological Survey of Israel, University of Zagreb, British Geological Survey (BGS), AECOM, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, C.N.R. - Institute for Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies, Milano, Insight Research Centre, University College Cork, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University (ROMA TRE), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Department of Physics, Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Behrens, J., Lovholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Galvez, M. A., Sorensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bures, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., Gonzalez, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kanoglu, U., Macias, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., Vyhmeister, E., and Universidad de Cantabria

Subjects
Risk, 1171 Geosciences, Risk analysis, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, hazard, Science, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, SCALING RELATIONS, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, tsunami, probabilistic method, risk, research gap, Probabilistic method, [SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology, Natural disaster, STRONG GROUND MOTION, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, tsunami, probabilistic method, hazard, risk, research gap, Tsunami, Probabilistic risk assessment, SUBDUCTION-ZONE EARTHQUAKES, Probabilistic logic, Maturity (finance), Hazard, TRIANGULAR DISLOCATION, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, Risk analysis (engineering), LARGE SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES, Tsunami hazard, FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS, 2011 TOHOKU, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Research gap, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, Natural Sciences, SHEAR-BAND PROPAGATION
Abstract

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister. This article is based upon work from COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). VB and PC obtained support through the VES20 Inter-Cost LTC 20020 project. MS-G obtained support through the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (Ref. CEX 2018–000797-S). TU acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ChEESE project, Grant Agreement No. 823844).

Published
2021
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23. The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)

Author

Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, André Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Finn Løvholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis Manuel Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mücahit Gürbüz, Onur Pekcan, Ahmet Yalçıner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, Alessandro Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio González, Jorge Macías Sánchez, Carlo Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde Sørensen, Andrey Zaytsev, Universidad de Cantabria, Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, André Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Finn Løvholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis Manuel Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mücahit Gürbüz, Onur Pekcan, Ahmet Yalçıner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimos Papadopoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, Alessandro Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jörn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio González, Jorge Macías Sánchez, Carlo Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde Sørensen, Andrey Zaytsev, Basili, R., Brizuela, B., Herrero, A., Iqbal, S., Lorito, S., Maesano, F. E., Murphy, S., Perfetti, P., Romano, F., Scala, A., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Volpe, M., Glimsdal, S., Harbitz, C. B., Lovholt, F., Baptista, M. A., Carrilho, F., Matias, L. M., Omira, R., Babeyko, A., Hoechner, A., Gurbuz, M., Pekcan, O., Yalciner, A., Canals, M., Lastras, G., Agalos, A., Papadopoulos, G., Triantafyllou, I., Benchekroun, S., Agrebi Jaouadi, H., Ben Abdallah, S., Bouallegue, A., Hamdi, H., Oueslati, F., Amato, A., Armigliato, A., Behrens, J., Davies, G., Di Bucci, D., Dolce, M., Geist, E., Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Gonzalez, M., Macias Sanchez, J., Meletti, C., Ozer Sozdinler, C., Pagani, M., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Sorensen, M., and Zaytsev, A.

Subjects
Percentile, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Point of interest, Hazard analysis, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, earthquake-generated tsunami, hazard uncertainty analysis, ensemble modeling, maximum inundation height, NEAM, Hazard uncertainty analysis, Ensemble modeling, NEAM, 14. Life underwater, Uncertainty quantification, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Ensemble forecasting, Warning system, Probabilistic logic, Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, Hazard, hazard uncertainty analysi, Tsunamis, 13. Climate action, Earthquake-generated tsunami, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Maximum inundation height, Cartography
Abstract

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Published
2021
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24. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

Author

Grezio, Anita, Babeyko, Andrey, Baptista, Maria Ana, Behrens, Jörn, Costa, Antonio, Davies, Gareth, Geist, Eric L., Glimsdal, Sylfest, González, Frank I., Griffin, Jonathan, Harbitz, Carl B., Leveque, Randall J., Lorito, Stefano, Løvholt, Finn, Omira, Rachid, Mueller, Christof, Paris, Raphael, Parsons, Tom, Polet, Jascha, Power, William, Selva, Jacopo, Sørensen, Mathilde B., Thio, Hong Kie, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Hewlett-Packard Laboratories [Bristol], Hewlett-Packard, University of Washington [Seattle], Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Department of Earth Science [Bergen] (UiB), University of Bergen (UiB), URS Corporation, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grezio, A., Babeyko, A., Baptista, M. A., Behrens, J., Costa, A., Davies, G., Geist, E. L., Glimsdal, S., Gonzalez, F. I., Griffin, J., Harbitz, C. B., Leveque, R. J., Lorito, S., Lovholt, F., Omira, R., Mueller, C., Paris, R., Parsons, T., Polet, J., Power, W., Selva, J., Sorensen, M. B., and Thio, H. K.

Subjects
tsunami source, [SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology, hazard mapping, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modeling, uncertainty analysis
Abstract

International audience; Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsicallychallenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluatedbecause of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity,meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic TsunamiHazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scaleswith the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhanceknowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specificlevels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period oftime (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard mapsor hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanismsof tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generationmechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii)statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoricuncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of therapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications,including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities ofoccurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Published
2017
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25. Near-field investigations of the landers earthquake sequence, april to july 1992.

Author

Sieh K, Jones L, Hauksson E, Hudnut K, Eberhart-Phillips D, Heaton T, Hough S, Hutton K, Kanamori H, Lilje A, Lindvall S, McGill SF, Mori J, Rubin C, Spotila JA, Stock J, Thio HK, Treiman J, Wernicke B, and Zachariasen J

Abstract

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (M(w)) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its M(w) 6.1 preshock and M(w) 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

Published
1993
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