Search

Trajectory prediction (TP) plays an important role in supporting the decision-making of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs). Traditional TP methods are deterministic and physics-based, with parameters that are calibrated using aircraft surveillance data harvested across the world. These models are, therefore, agnostic to the intentions of the pilots and ATCOs, which can have a significant effect on the observed trajectory, particularly in the lateral plane. This work proposes a generative method for lateral TP, using probabilistic machine learning to model the effect of the epistemic uncertainty arising from the unknown effect of pilot behaviour and ATCO intentions. The models are trained to be specific to a particular sector, allowing local procedures such as coordinated entry and exit points to be modelled. A dataset comprising a week's worth of aircraft surveillance data, passing through a busy sector of the United Kingdom's upper airspace, was used to train and test the models. Specifically, a piecewise linear model was used as a functional, low-dimensional representation of the ground tracks, with its control points determined by a generative model conditioned on partial context. It was found that, of the investigated models, a Bayesian Neural Network using the Laplace approximation was able to generate the most plausible trajectories in order to emulate the flow of traffic through the sector.

Accurate trajectory prediction (TP) for climbing aircraft is hampered by the presence of epistemic uncertainties concerning aircraft operation, which can lead to significant misspecification between predicted and observed trajectories. This paper proposes a generative model for climbing aircraft in which the standard Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) model is enriched by a functional correction to the thrust that is learned from data. The method offers three features: predictions of the arrival time with 66.3% less error when compared to BADA; generated trajectories that are realistic when compared to test data; and a means of computing confidence bounds for minimal computational cost.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

The effects of ageing at 800 $^\circ$C on the properties of the IRIS alloy (Ti$_{49.9}$Al$_{48}$W$_2$B$_{0.1}$) are studied. The initial microstructure of this alloy densified by Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) is mainly composed of lamellar colonies which are surrounded by $\gamma$ grains. The evolutions of the alloy strength and creep resistance resulting from this ageing treatment are measured by the related mechanical tests. The microstructural changes are investigated by scanning and transmission electron microscopies and by X-ray diffraction. The main structural evolutions consist in a shrinkage of the lamellar areas and in a precipitation of $\beta_0$ phase, which is accompanied by a moderate segregation of tungsten and a decrease of the $\alpha_2$ lamellar width. However, these evolutions are relatively limited and the microstructural stability is found to result mainly from the low diffusivity of tungsten. Conversely, a moderate effect of this ageing treatment on mechanical properties, at room and high temperatures, is measured. Such experimental results are interpreted and discussed in terms of the microstructural evolutions and of the deformation mechanisms which are activated at different temperatures under various solicitations.

The inert Two Higgs Doublet Model (i2HDM) is a theoretically well-motivated example of a minimal consistent Dark Matter(DM) model which provides mono-jet, mono-Z, mono-Higgs and Vector-Boson-Fusion+Missing Transverse Momentum signatures at the LHC, complemented by signals in direct and indirect DM search experiments. In this paper we have performed a detailed analysis of the constraints in the full 5D parameter space of the i2HDM, coming from perturbativity, unitarity, electroweak precision data, Higgs data from LHC, DM relic density, direct/indirect DM detection and LHC mono-jet analysis, as well as implications of experimental LHC studies on disappearing charged tracks relevant to high DM mass region. We demonstrate the complementarity of the above constraints and present projections for future LHC data and direct DM detection experiments to probe further i2HDM parameter space. The model is implemented into the CalcHEP and micrOMEGAs packages, which are publicly available at the HEPMDB database, and is ready for a further exploration in the context of the LHC, relic density and DM direct detection., Comment: Text and figures are updated to be consistent with with published PRD version

Torsion is a metric-independent component of gravitation, which may provide a more general geometry than the one taking place within general relativity. On the other hand torsion could lead to interesting phenomenology in both particle physics and cosmology. In the present work it is shown that a torsion field interacting with the SM Higgs doublet and having a negligible coupling to SM fermions is protected from decaying by a $Z_2$ symmetry, and therefore becomes a promising Dark Matter (DM) candidate. In order to check the consistency of this scenario we evaluate the DM relic density and explore direct DM detection and collider constraints on this model. It turns out that in the model when the Higgs boson is only partly responsible for the generation of torsion mass, there is a region of parameter space where torsion contributes 100% to the DM budget of the Universe. Furthermore, we show that the LHC currently has a limited sensitivity to the torsion parameter space via mono-jet signature and will be able to considerably improve its coverage of the torsion parameter space with the projected high luminosity., Comment: 14 pages

We have studied the complete set of dimension 5 and dimension 6 effective operators involving the interaction of scalar, fermion and vector Dark Matter (DM) with SM quarks and gluons, to explore the possibility to distinguish these operators and characterise the spin of DM at the LHC. We have found that three factors - the effective dimension of the operator, the structure of the SM part of the operator and the parton densities of the SM particles connected to the operator - uniquely define the shape of the (unobservable) invariant mass distribution of the DM pair and, consequently, the shape of the (observable) MET distribution related to it. Using $\chi^2$ analysis, we found that at the LHC, with a luminosity of 300 fb$^{-1}$, certain classes of EFT operators can be distinguished from each other. Hence, since DM spin is partly correlated with the factors defining the shape of MET, the LHC can potentially shed a light also on DM spin. We have also observed a drastic difference in the efficiencies (up to two orders of magnitude) for large MET cuts scenarios with different DM spin, thus indicating that the DM discovery potential strongly depends on it. The study we perform here can be applied more generally than within the EFT paradigm, where the DM mediator is not produced on-the-mass-shell, such as the case of t-channel mediator or mediator with mass below $2M_{DM}$, where the invariant mass of the DM pair is not fixed., Comment: 38 pages, 15 figures, 6 tables. Operators for vector DM have been reparametrised to highlight their proper energy behaviour. Version accepted for publication in JHEP

Searches at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) for neutral, long-lived particles have historically relied on the detection of displaced particles produced by their decay $\textit{within}$ the detector volume. In this paper we study the potential of the complementary signature comprising of the missing transverse energy ($E_T^{miss}$) signal, traditionally used to look for dark matter, e.g., the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP), to extend the LHC coverage to models with long-lived (LL) particles when they decay $\textit{outside}$ the detector. Using CMS and ATLAS analyses at the 8 TeV LHC, we set an upper limit at the 95% confidence level (CL) on the production cross sections for two specific scenarios: (i) a model with a heavy non-standard model Higgs boson decaying to a LL scalar and (ii) an R-parity violating RPV SUSY model with a LL neutralino. We show that this method can significantly extend the LHC sensitivity to neutral, LL particles with arbitrary large lifetimes and that the limits obtained from a $E_T^{miss}$ signal are comparable to those from displaced particle searches for decay distances above a few meters. Results obtained in this study do not not depend on the specific decay channel of the LL particle and therefore are model-independent in this sense. We provide limits for the whole two-dimensional plane in terms of the mass of the LL particle and the mass of the mediator up to masses of 2 TeV including particular benchmarks studied in the original experimental papers. We have made these limits available in the form of a grid which can be used for the interpretation of various other new physics models., Comment: 28 pages

Understanding the extent to which experimental searches are sensitive to Light Stops (LST) scenarios is essential to resolve questions about naturalness, electroweak baryogenesis and Dark Matter. In this paper we characterize the reach on LST scenarios in two ways. We extend experimental searches to cover specific gaps in the LST parameter space, showing for the first time that assuming a single decay channel one can exclude the region of $m_{\tilde{t}}

This document is the final report of the ATLAS-CMS Dark Matter Forum, a forum organized by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations with the participation of experts on theories of Dark Matter, to select a minimal basis set of dark matter simplified models that should support the design of the early LHC Run-2 searches. A prioritized, compact set of benchmark models is proposed, accompanied by studies of the parameter space of these models and a repository of generator implementations. This report also addresses how to apply the Effective Field Theory formalism for collider searches and present the results of such interpretations.

This document outlines a set of simplified models for dark matter and its interactions with Standard Model particles. It is intended to summarize the main characteristics that these simplified models have when applied to dark matter searches at the LHC, and to provide a number of useful expressions for reference. The list of models includes both s-channel and t-channel scenarios. For s-channel, spin-0 and spin-1 mediation is discussed, and also realizations where the Higgs particle provides a portal between the dark and visible sectors. The guiding principles underpinning the proposed simplified models are spelled out, and some suggestions for implementation are presented., Comment: v3: Fixed typo in eqns 14 & 15

In this White Paper we present and discuss a concrete proposal for the consistent interpretation of Dark Matter searches at colliders and in direct detection experiments. Based on a specific implementation of simplified models of vector and axial-vector mediator exchanges, this proposal demonstrates how the two search strategies can be compared on an equal footing., Comment: White Paper from the Brainstorming Workshop held at Imperial College London on May 29th, 2014

We study the effects from light sfermions on the lightest Higgs boson production and decay at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We find that the scenario with light coloured sfermions -- stops or sbottoms -- has the potential to explain a non-universal alteration, as hinted by LHC data, of the gluon-gluon Fusion ($\mu_{ggF}$) with respect to the Vector Boson Fusion ($\mu_{VBF}$) event rates and, in particular, can predict $\frac{\mu_{VBF}}{\mu_{ggF}}>1$ for all Higgs boson decay channels in large areas of the parameter space. We also find that the scenario with a light stop/sbottom can be complemented by the scenario in which the total Higgs width, $\Gamma_{\rm tot}$, is reduced due to a suppressed Yukawa coupling $Y_b$. In this case, the reduction of the Higgs production rates in the $ggF$ process which occurs in the maximal mixing scenario is compensated by the reduction of the $H\to b\bar{b}$ partial decay width, the largest component of $\Gamma_{\rm tot}$. Furthermore, we highlight the fact that, in the light stop/sbottom scenario, event rates with the Higgs boson decaying to a $b\bar{b}$ final state are predicted to be essentially below unity. Therefore, during the future LHC runs, the measurement of $h\to b\bar{b}$ final states is a matter of special importance. Amongst all viable MSSM configurations that we study (including revisiting a light stau solution), we emphasise most the scenario with a light stop, as the latter is also motivated by Dark Matter and Electro-Weak baryogenesis. We also perform fits of the MSSM against the LHC data, emphasising the fact that in most cases these are better than for the SM., Comment: 25 pages