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Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000-2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32]Tg CH4yr-1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (g1/4 biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558g Tgg CH4g yrg'1, range 540-568. About 60g % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65g %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736g Tgg CH4g yrg'1, range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (g1/4 64g % of the global budget, http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL-METHANE-BUDGET-2016-V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

We demonstrate direct eddy covariance (EC) observations of methane (CH 4 ) fluxes between the sea and atmosphere from an icebreaker in the eastern Arctic Ocean. EC-derived CH 4 emissions averaged 4.58, 1.74, and 0.14 mg m -2 day -1 in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas, respectively, corresponding to annual sea-wide fluxes of 0.83, 0.62, and 0.03 Tg year -1 . These EC results answer concerns that previous diffusive emission estimates, which excluded bubbling, may underestimate total emissions. We assert that bubbling dominates sea-air CH 4 fluxes in only small constrained areas: A ~100-m 2 area of the East Siberian Sea showed sea-air CH 4 fluxes exceeding 600 mg m -2 day -1 ; in a similarly sized area of the Laptev Sea, peak CH 4 fluxes were ~170 mg m -2 day -1 . Calculating additional emissions below the noise level of our EC system suggests total ESAS CH 4 emissions of 3.02 Tg year -1 , closely matching an earlier diffusive emission estimate of 2.9 Tg year -1 ., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Methane (CH 4 ) strongly contributes to observed global warming. As natural CH 4 emissions mainly originate from wet ecosystems, it is important to unravel how climate change may affect these emissions. This is especially true for ebullition (bubble flux from sediments), a pathway that has long been underestimated but generally dominates emissions. Here we show a remarkably strong relationship between CH 4 ebullition and temperature across a wide range of freshwater ecosystems on different continents using multi-seasonal CH 4 ebullition data from the literature. As these temperature-ebullition relationships may have been affected by seasonal variation in organic matter availability, we also conducted a controlled year-round mesocosm experiment. Here 4 °C warming led to 51% higher total annual CH 4 ebullition, while diffusion was not affected. Our combined findings suggest that global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH 4 emissions through a disproportional increase in ebullition (6-20% per 1 °C increase), contributing to global warming.

Methyl chloride and methyl bromide (CH3Cl and CH3Br) are the largest natural sources of chlorine and bromine, respectively, to the stratosphere, where they contribute to ozone depletion. We report the anthropogenic production of CH3Cl and CH3Br during breadbaking, and suggest this production is an abiotic process involving the methyl ester functional groups in pectin and lignin structural polymers of plant cells. Wide variations in baking styles allow only rough estimates of this flux of methyl halides on a global basis. A simple model suggests that CH3Br emissions from breadbaking likely peaked circa 1990 at approximately 200tonnes per year (about 0.3% of industrial production), prior to restrictions on the dough conditioner potassium bromate. In contrast, CH3Cl emissions from breadbaking may be of similar magnitude as acknowledged present-day CH3Cl industrial emissions. Because the mechanisms involve functional groups and compounds widely found in plant materials, this type of methyl halide production may occur in other cooking techniques as well., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Methyl bromide is the most important natural bromine contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion, yet there are still large uncertainties regarding quantification of its sources and sinks. The stable bromine isotope composition of CH(3)Br is potentially a powerful tool to apportion its sources and to study both its transport and its reactive fate. A novel compound-specific method to measure (81)Br/(79)Br isotope ratios in CH(3)Br using gas chromatography hyphenated with inductively coupled plasma multiple-collector mass spectrometry (GC/MCICPMS) was developed. Sample amounts of >40 ng could be measured with a precision of 0.1‰ (1σ, n = 3). The method results are reproducible over the long term as shown with 36 analyses acquired over 3 months, yielding a standard deviation (1σ) better than 0.4‰. This new method demonstrates for the first time Br isotope ratio determination in gaseous brominated samples. It is three orders of magnitude more sensitive than previously existing isotope ratio mass spectrometry methods for Br isotope determination of other organobromines, thus allowing applications towards ambient atmospheric samples., (Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)